Worst case Brexit

J.J. Patrick ‏on Twitter, yesterday, offers this bleak short analysis of post Brexit Britain.

You don’t have to agree with his analysis to know that it remains possible; and it is the sort of debate that Britain and its Parliament should be having. Instead TV seems to remain full of discussion of EU immigration and little else.

He is on twitter at @J_amesp

“First let’s address that the UK will not exist in a couple of years. At best, only England and Wales will be joined. Scotland/NI gone.

England and Wales are then left import reliant on fuels, food and other goods. But favourable EU trade terms and Parity gains are also gone.

The export market is toast, as gains in currency devaluation are killed by a lack of resource without import. Unemployment rises with costs.

Internally, inflation kills the housing and retail market and poverty levels spike out of control. Without ability to provide welfare.

The service sector departs for EU, executing the only healthy section of the economy while decreasing the largest available tax revenues.

Foreign companies who’ve propped manufacture/infrastructure withdraw due to the impact of trade tariffs and the economy/employment crashes.

Any government is now trapped, unable to spend without revenue, and the downward spiral accelerates. The NHS, Education, & policing collapse

Foreign companies seize the opportunity and asset strip the U.K., while the government takes the sole option of tax haven creation.

This relies on further deregulation of employment and human rights. What employment there is left is low wage, short or zero terms.

The population now can’t afford to move, as the housing market has collapsed, credit has died, and foreign hands control rental markets.

And migrant labour cannot pick up the slack, so local communities die at an accelerated rate without investment and travelling revenue.

Devolved budget councils fail to collect revenue due to the collapsing national and local economy and infrastructure crumbles.

The spiral, at this point, becomes irreversible and Wales seeks union elsewhere. To save itself. The English economy is decimated.

Gas and petrol become a daydream, commuting for work fails. Local economies cease to viably exist.

Disease becomes commonplace among the young and old, and the age of death reduces significantly. The population contracts, reducing revenue.

At this point, the once sick man of Europe is now dying and they return, cap in hand. But Europe, after war with Russia, turns their back.

Beyond this point, all bets are off. But it’s about time, even as simplistically as in tweet form, people faced facts of the path we are on.”


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