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Hong Kong's crisis and Beijing's dilemma 9 July 2003 In a land where saving face is ingrained in the culture have no doubts how much face Tung Chee-hwa has lost. And the speed with which he has been dumped by his erstwhile allies in the Liberal Party and the the Tung has withdrawn the proposed security legislation that was demanded by Beijing. In doing so he has undermined his authority and embarrassed his master in Beijing who hand-picked him for the Chief Executive's role in Hong Kong. It is a massive victory for all the decent, hard working and articulate people of Hong Kong. It is a vote for reason and common sense. It is a belated acknowledgement that the people have a right to be heard and that their concerns deserve attention. In demanding that the puppet government (that is what it was) push through the security legislation Beijing clearly misread the mood of the people of Hong Kong. Beijing has woken up to the fact that the people of Hong Kong are not as compliant as the mainland Chinese and that they cannot be bullied into submission. What Beijing does next will say much about the future relationship between Beijing and Hong Kong and much about their commitment to one country, two systems. In a western democracy, the government of Hong Kong would have massively lost a no confidence vote; and election would be held and a new government elected. Hong Kong is now rudderless. The Chief Executive has seen his first officers scurry away into their political lifeboats. He is left on the bridge, maybe with the faithful and foolish Regina IP, and they will be the last to leave. The biggest hope is that they do not go down with the ship. After all the collapse of the security act and the clear statement of independence and confidence by the people could be just the shot in the arm that Hong Kong needs to bring foreign confidence and investment back into Hong Kong. Will China replace Mr. Tung? The Basic Law makes no provision for a leader to step down mid term other than allowing him to resign for "ill-health or other reasons". But this will embarrass China's leaders who have publicly stood by and praised Mr. Tung. And what precedent does this outburst of public disaffection set for the mainland. Suddenly it appears that at least in Hong Kong people want a greater say in how they are governed. Maybe one of the results of the SARS outbreak is people have discovered that there is more to living life than making money. My guess is that in three to six months Tung Chee-hwa will be too ill to continue in office. He will get a nice fat pension and retire. It is far less clear who would replace him. His successor will then pass a significantly watered down anti subversion law early in 2004. One lesson that the people of Hong Kong have learned now is that they can make a difference and they can cause change to happen. They should never be under-estimated again. Theirs has been a wake-up call not just to Hong Kong and China but a call that could reverberate around Asia.
The People Have Spoken
Christine Loh is CEO of the Hong Kong think tank, www.civic-exchange.org. this is her newsletter from 2 July 2003. Dear Subscribers & Friends,
It's official - at
least 500,000 Hong Kong people took to the streets yesterday to protest
against the government's Article 23 national security legislation, which it
wants to pass on 9 July. The people are now waiting for an official response
and they are tuning in for that today. The people has one key message for the
Tung Chee-hwa Administration: "Listen us us".
A. "We
were there"
(a) 1.30 pm:
Crowds began to gather at Victoria Park. Christian groups had a massive prayer
session to pray for the well being of Hong Kong.
(b) 2.15 pm:
Crowds started to swell. In anticipation of large numbers, people met at
various corners in and around the park.
(c) 3 pm:
The march started on time and by shortly after 4 pm, the front reached Central
Government Offices - the end point.
(d) 7.30 pm:
The last protesters left Victoria Park.
(e) 9.45 pm:
The protest ended with organizers declaring at least 500,000 people had
marched. The police has not contradicted that number.
B.
Significant Aspects
(a)
Peaceful: To have had 500,000 moving along Hong Kong's narrow streets
on a sweltering day, including people having to stand around for hours before
being able to move forward, protesters were peaceful, polite and in good
cheer. Protesters expected no trouble as many brought their young children.
(b) Sea of
black: Organziers suggested protesters to wear black. Many people
did - a sign that people wanted to show unity of purpose.
(c)
Official counter strategy: The government organized celebratory
events of the 6th anniversary of Hong Kong's reunification with China. For
example, the government allowed free entry to public indoor sports facilities
e.g. swimming pools and museums; 10,000 people could go to watch movies for
free; and free meals were served.
(d)
Unofficial counter strategy: The political party, DAB, booked space
at Victoria Park to have soccer matches and a reunification carnival.
(e)
Unexpected numbers: No one expected 500,000 protesters. The highest
estimate prior to the march was 250,000 but most people stuck to 100,000. By
mid-afternoon, CNN reported 200,000; by 6 pm, the organizers thought there
were 350,000; but as more people were still starting off and more joined in
mid-way, it became clear that the number was going to be much bigger by the
end.
(f) Parting
comments: Premier Wen Jiabao left Hong Kong before the protest
started so he would not know how many showed up until evening. His departing
words may prove to be precient:
" The future of
Hong Kong will be created by the people of Hong Kong themselves".
"At the moment, the
most important requirements are understanding, trust and unity".
"We hope our Hong
Kong compatriots will treasure the opportunity to become the masters of their
homeland."
"The SAR Government
has accumulated precious experience over the past 6 years. It has developed
its wisdom and capability to tackle complex political situations".
"The enactment of
Article 23 legislation in Hong Kong will never affect all kinds of rights and
freedoms which the Hong Kong people."
(g)
Deafening official silence: The HKSAR Government and its top
officials have yet to say anything about the protest.
C. Analysis
- "Can you hear us now?"
(a)
Not a social
gathering: The protest was clearly a
political event. Hong Kong's secretary for security said a few days ago that
marchers were going to a "social" gathering on a public holiday. That
statement was a sign of disconnect between those in power and the people.
(b)
Sign of disconnect:
The DAB and the pro-government bodies' attempt to counter the protest by
booking a section of Victoria Park knowing that people were going to gather
there for a massive protest was also a sign of disconnect between them and a
very large number of Hong Kong people. Did they feel a sense of "unreality"
about what they were doing? The DAB and the Liberal Party are a part of the
ruling coalition with the Tung Administration - when and how will they assess
what happened yesterday?
(c)
Deep and wide
discontent: The 6th year is also the end
of the first year of the 2nd term of office of the chief executive Tung
Chee-hwa. The protest poses an interesting question for the Central People's
Government (CPG) in Beijing: did you properly assess the 1st term of office?
The CPG supported Tung for a 2nd term and made it clearly its wishes quite
publicly in 2001. Now that there is a new leadership in Beijing, there is
urgency for national leaders to better understand Hong Kong.
(d)
No alternative to
protest: Did the Hong Kong's ministers
meet last night urgently to discuss how to respond to the protest? If not,
they remain politically insensitive. If they did, they decided not to publish
a statement last night. So, when will they respond? In Hong Kong, where the
government is un-elected, on an issue such as Article 23 legislation when so
many people are unhappy, people feel there is no alternative but to protest.
The CPG should watch whether the Tung Administration can indeed handle this
new crisis with "wisdom".
(e)
Hong Kong people's
character: Hong Kong people have shown
themselves to be incredibly mature, patient and well behaved.
These
characteristics were displayed during the SARS crisis, and again yesterday.
Hong Kong people are not politically passive or politically immature. They
could gather and show force in a completely peaceful and orderly manner. They
continued to ask for their voices to be heard. The international media must
not mistaken the lack of disorderly behaviour as passivity or discount the
importance of the protest because it was not a riot.
(f)
Political
milestone?: The protest was a political
milestone, like the protest of June 4, 1989 where a million people took to the
street. Such events are defining moments for society because they change the
public psyche. Yesterday was a sign of self-empowerment and self- respect for
Hong Kong people. It's impact will reach far and wide over time.
CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange -
Hong Kong's independent think tank
Get out, be heard, speak up while you still can Protest in Hong Kong on 1 July 2003 30 June 2003 On July 1, the sixth anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to China, there will be the biggest demonstration to date against the new security laws being proposed by the government of Hong Kong under Article 23 of the basic law, and likely to be passed into legislation on July 9 2003. Perhaps the most telling reason to condemn this new legislation is the wave of protests that have been raised through professional and religious groups. Many of Hong Kong's' most articulate, educated and thoughtful people see the potential damage that this legislation can cause, and understand how its provisions can be used to muzzle their own voices and to take away their freedoms. Academics. journalists, church representatives, lawyers, human rights representatives have all articulated their concerns and will be at the forefront of the protests. For the business tycoons who run Hong Kong and who dominate its unelected government this legislation is a part of their duty to China and continues to smooth the way for their trading links and investments. These people are too busy making money to understand the potential dangers of this unhappy legislation. If you are in Hong Kong and have any love for the city and its people you should join this protest on 1 July. Timetable of Events:
Hong Kong's flawed law Editorial; The Guardian, 30 June 2003
Repression in Hong Kong International Herald Tribune 28 June 2003 Taking advantage of preoccupation in Hong Kong with the SARS epidemic, the territory's pro-Beijing government has been pushing along a noxious national security bill that would leave the territory vulnerable to the sort of political repression common on the Communist mainland. It may be too late to block the law, which looks likely to pass on July 9. But it should be made clear to Beijing that nobody buys its justifications for this repressive measure. The measure, known as Article 23, deals with treason, sedition, subversion and the theft of state secrets, and includes provisions that would enable the Hong Kong government to crack down on organizations deemed to be linked to any that are banned in China, such as Falun Gong. That would seriously erode the autonomy that the former British colony was promised when it came under China's rule six years ago under the formula of "one country, two systems." Some governments, including the United States and Canada, have already protested, as have many human-rights organizations, prompting predictable squawks from Beijing against meddling in its internal affairs. That can hardly be said of opponents in Hong Kong, who turned out in the tens of thousands on the 14th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square uprising, and now plan an even larger protest against Article 23 for July 1, the anniversary of the turnover of Hong Kong. The resistance draws on an expanding coalition of human-rights groups, independent politicians, trade unions, journalists, academics and students. They have correctly identified the bill as a challenge to their autonomy and fundamental freedoms, and as an attempt to impose China's arbitrary legal system on Hong Kong through the back door. China argues that Article 23 is not much different from the laws of some democratic states. That may be so, but democratic societies have checks and balances that China and other Communist states do not; in the latter, national security laws have long been a primary tool for silencing critics and subverting freedoms. The fate of Falun Gong is but one example. Another is SARS: Under the new law, the dogged newspapers of Hong Kong might have been forced into the same disgraceful and dangerous silence as the mainland press. China's rulers have also portrayed Article 23 as a critical test of national sovereignty. It is really an assault on the freedoms they promised to respect in Hong Kong for 50 years. Even if the bill cannot be stopped, it should be widely exposed and condemned for the repressive measure it really is. Get out, be heard, speak up while you still can Protest in Hong Kong on 1 July 2003 30 June 2003 On July 1, the sixth anniversary of the return of Hong Kong to China, there will be the biggest demonstration to date against the new security laws being proposed by the government of Hong Kong under Article 23 of the basic law, and likely to be passed into legislation on July 9 2003. Perhaps the most telling reason to condemn this new legislation is the wave of protests that have been raised through professional and religious groups. Many of Hong Kong's' most articulate, educated and thoughtful people see the potential damage that this legislation can cause, and understand how its provisions can be used to muzzle their own voices and to take away their freedoms. Academics. journalists, church representatives, lawyers, human rights representatives have all articulated their concerns and will be at the forefront of the protests. For the business tycoons who run Hong Kong and who dominate its unelected government this legislation is a part of their duty to China and continues to smooth the way for their trading links and investments. These people are too busy making money to understand the potential dangers of this unhappy legislation. If you are in Hong Kong and have any love for the city and its people you should join this protest on 1 July. Timetable of Events:
Hong Kong's flawed law Editorial; The Guardian, 30 June 2003
Repression in Hong Kong International Herald Tribune 28 June 2003 Taking advantage of preoccupation in Hong Kong with the SARS epidemic, the territory's pro-Beijing government has been pushing along a noxious national security bill that would leave the territory vulnerable to the sort of political repression common on the Communist mainland. It may be too late to block the law, which looks likely to pass on July 9. But it should be made clear to Beijing that nobody buys its justifications for this repressive measure. The measure, known as Article 23, deals with treason, sedition, subversion and the theft of state secrets, and includes provisions that would enable the Hong Kong government to crack down on organizations deemed to be linked to any that are banned in China, such as Falun Gong. That would seriously erode the autonomy that the former British colony was promised when it came under China's rule six years ago under the formula of "one country, two systems." Some governments, including the United States and Canada, have already protested, as have many human-rights organizations, prompting predictable squawks from Beijing against meddling in its internal affairs. That can hardly be said of opponents in Hong Kong, who turned out in the tens of thousands on the 14th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square uprising, and now plan an even larger protest against Article 23 for July 1, the anniversary of the turnover of Hong Kong. The resistance draws on an expanding coalition of human-rights groups, independent politicians, trade unions, journalists, academics and students. They have correctly identified the bill as a challenge to their autonomy and fundamental freedoms, and as an attempt to impose China's arbitrary legal system on Hong Kong through the back door. China argues that Article 23 is not much different from the laws of some democratic states. That may be so, but democratic societies have checks and balances that China and other Communist states do not; in the latter, national security laws have long been a primary tool for silencing critics and subverting freedoms. The fate of Falun Gong is but one example. Another is SARS: Under the new law, the dogged newspapers of Hong Kong might have been forced into the same disgraceful and dangerous silence as the mainland press. China's rulers have also portrayed Article 23 as a critical test of national sovereignty. It is really an assault on the freedoms they promised to respect in Hong Kong for 50 years. Even if the bill cannot be stopped, it should be widely exposed and condemned for the repressive measure it really is.
Human Rights Watch Asia The three month consultation period for the proposed Article 23 legislation ended on 24 December. Human Rights Watch Asia was one of many organisations that submitted their comments to the Chief Executive. Human Rights Watch Asia can be found here: http://www.hrw.org/asia/index.php
International Herald Tribune trashes Article 23 15 December 2002 There is no more to do than repeat the final paragraph of Philip Bowring's commentary in the IHT on 3 December 2002. "Article 23 legislation us another chapter in the book of Tung's failure to lead Hong Kong and represent its wider interests. It reflects the lack of accountability of the elite which dominates his so-called ministerial system. The legislation is a symptom of the exclusion form government of a well- educated public and confirms the view that Hong Kong is moving in the opposite direction to most of East Asia, China included." The IHT's archive is at www.iht.com The US calls for a white paper for article 23 in Hong Kong - how ironic ! 23 November 2002 The US state department issued a statement yesterday calling for the SAR government in Hong Kong to issue a white paper for public consultation with the exact wording of the proposed Article 23 legislation. The fact that the US government has made this statement indicates just how serious the issue of Article 23 is. It also indicates that the SAR government has to date done a poor job of "selling" the proposed legislation and answering the genuine questions and concerns of interested parties. The USA certainly has a right to be an interested party. Many US citizens are resident in Hong Kong. The article 23 proposals may impact on their personal freedoms. The trouble is that this is simply not the right time for the USA to be preaching to the rest of the world on the subject of individual freedoms ! This is the country that assassinated alleged terrorists in Yemen without trial. A country deeply fearful of attacks on their homeland, deeply suspicious of foreigners (except Tony Blair, Mr. Bush's favourite poodle), A country that in its fear is embracing the harsh policies of the ultra right wing and a country where Donald Rumsfeld can command a near bottomless budget. Domestic criticism of the US government is almost non existent. If you are not with us you are against us is the message. The US State Department may just need to check what is happening in their own country before they start to tell the SAR government what to do ! Issue a white bill for article 23 31 October 2002 The motives of Hong Kong's government are becoming ever more obvious. They want to manage the interests of Beijing; not the interests of the people of Hong Kong. There is a widespread belief that the government should produce a white bill for the article 23 legislation. This would be an actual draft of the bill giving precise details of the proposed laws; white bills are issued for public consultation. But the government wants to move directly form its discussion document to a blue bill which would be presented to the "yes men and women" in the Legislative Council. The government appears to believe that the issues are too complex for serious public debate. But that severely underestimates the intelligence of Hong Kong people and the extent to which they are interested in this subject. It is a serious issue; the people take it seriously and they deserve a leadership that takes them seriously as well.
Some questions that I think we need black and white answers to. And those are not easy to get from this government 30 September 2002 Why is the government only producing its proposals on Article 23 for consultation? Why cant we see a "White Paper" detailing the proposed legislation? If (please let this be speculation only) there was another Tianenmen Square would the people of HKG be able to turn up in hundreds of thousands to protest the following day? If fighting breaks out between China and Taiwan what will happen to the Taiwanese in Hong Kong? If fighting breaks out between China and Taiwan would it be legal or illegal to express support for the Taipei government? Would we be expected to sit without comment while an authoritarian regime invades a free and democratic society ?
Article 23 is ill-considered legislation and ill-advised timing 26 September 2002 On Tuesday of this week a paper addressing the implementation of Article 23 of the Basic Law was released for three months consultation. The proposals deal with treason, secession, subversion and sedition. In 1984 Britain and China signed the Joint Declaration defining the terms under which sovereignty of Hong Kong would revert to China in 1997. The Basic Law is China's codification of the Joint Declaration into a constitutional and legal framework for governing Hong Kong as a special administrative region of the People's Republic. Article 23 was brought into the Basic Law by Beijing after one million Hong Kong people took to the streets to protest the slaughter of students and demonstrators in Tianenmen Square on 4 June 1989. Martin Lee, then Chairman of the Hong Kong Bar Association, had been invited by Beijing to be a member of the drafting committee of the Basic Law. On 5 June he symbolically and publicly burned his copy of the draft. In Beijing he was branded a subversive and formally banned from the committee. By early 1990 Article 23 had been written into the basic law. Strong protests from the British and from Martin Lee and others were to no avail. The article contained a general prohibition of "subversion against the Central People's Government". Why do we get this proposal now. If has not been rushed through over the last five years as Hong Kong and China have been trying to gain confidence in the concept of "one country, two systems". Beijing has demanded that Hong Kong delays this legislation no further. The timing for Hong Kong could not be worse. So what is wrong with the proposed legislation. Well lets start with the government's perception. On Tuesday, Tung Chee-hwa confidently stated that "Human rights and civil liberties are the pillars of our success. I will protect them" He continued, " In drawing up our proposals for the legislation, we have in fact compared them with similar laws in many western countries. I find our proposals both liberal and reasonable". Oh dear ! What Mr. Tung forgets is that we do not have the right to vote out a government that abuses its powers. Who is Mr. Tung accountable to. Certainly (sadly) not the people of Hong Kong. He is accountable to Beijing. This is not government of the people, for the people by the people ! Why do we need Article 23. There should be three areas of wide concern in the proposals: i) It is proposed that an organisation in Hong Kong can be banned if it is affiliated to a mainland organisation that has been cited as endangering national security. Now Falun Gong for instance has not branded as a threat to national security, it has been classified as an evil cult. But the move to banning Falun Gong and other similar movements can be easily made, And the Hong Kong operation of any such group would be charged with endangering state security. ii) The police are given new powers under the proposals to enter and search without a warrant where an act of treason is suspected. What is wrong with getting a court order to break into someone's home? iii) The proposals also include new provisions on the theft of state secrets that appear to specifically target Hong Kong's already largely compliant media. Unauthorised or damaging disclosure of protected information obtained by unauthorised means would be a criminal act. And protected information is now deemed to include that "relating to relations between the Central Authorities of the PRC and the Hong Kong SAR". So if the government is embarrassed it simply sues the media ! This is far too open ended a proposal. Lets deal with the timing issue. Hong Kong is facing a crisis of confidence, from inside, and looking in from the outside. Our international standing is weak. Our economy is weaker. On the inside those people that have jobs are doing all they can to hang on to them. Unemployment is at record high levels with little sign of any short term reduction. Meanwhile property prices have fallen some 50% to 60% below 1997 peak levels. Many people are sitting on negative equity or managing high mortgages. Bankruptcies, mortgage and credit card defaults are commonplace. I fear we simply do not have the energy to fight over Article 23. We are too busy trying to get by right now. From the outside looking in - this just looks like one more nail in the coffin of a free and vibrant Hong Kong that is governed according to instructions from Beijing. Hong Kong is widely seen as losing its unique appeal and its unique position in the world economy as it is eroded by Beijing in favour of other mainland cities. What is likely to happen. Not a lot sadly. There is no doubt that the proposals have already been discussed with and approved by Beijing. There will not be much encouragement to debate or amend the proposals. And I do not believe that the Hong Kong government is empowered to make changes without reference to Beijing. The law will be passed. There are unlikely to be any major prosecutions under the law. What the law will do is act as a silent deterrent. People will worry about what happens if they attend a demonstration, write an article, or make a speech, that is critical of Beijing. They will think twice about attending rallies in support of separatist groups in Taiwan or Tibet. How do you avoid getting into trouble? Some things will not get discussed. Not knowing where the line gets drawn or knowing that the line can be moved at any time will make people wary. Margaret Ng in the SCMP put this much better. She said, "Society will be hushed and then fall silent". What can you do : Views on the proposals can be sent to the Security Bureau (a rather unfortunate name) via mail, by fax (2521 2848) or by email (bl23@sb.gov.hk). Please do make your voice heard.
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