Nestle - do they know its Christmas?

24 December 2002

In 1984, appalled by film of the famine in Ethiopia, Sir Bob Geldorf wrote Do they Know its Christmas; he cajoled, encouraged and persuaded the hit list of British 1980s pop to perform the song; and all proceeds went to acquire and ship food and medical supplies to Ethiopia.

The song was released in November of 1984, and immediately debuted at Number One in Great Britain, and was Number One on the American charts two weeks later. The song sold fifty million copies worldwide. Midge Ure was the co-producer, and he personally accompanied the first relief shipment of over $70,000 worth of food and medical supplies to Ethiopia, in March 11, 1985.

Now 18 years on the lessons have not been learned.

The multinational coffee, cereal and confectionery company, Nestle, is demanding US$ 6 million from the Ethiopian government.

Ethiopia is fighting its worst famine for 20 years. It is the poorest country in the world. The average annual income is US$ 100. One in every ten new born children will not see their first birthday. The government has acknowledged its legal liability but argues that it simply cannot afford the repayment but has offered US$ 1.5 million to settle the claim.

The background is slightly complicated. In 1975 the then military government in Ethiopia nationalised the Ethiopian Livestock Development Company, which at that time was owned in part by a German company, the Schweisfurth Group. Schwiesfurth was acquired by Nestle in 1986. It is a fair bet that the recoverability of an 11 year old debt was a discount to the purchase price. If it was not then the due diligence was negligent.

Oxfam state that US$ 6 million would feed over one million people for a month. The Ethiopian prime minister believes that 6 million of his people already need emergency food aid. That number increase daily.

There has been a three year drought. Crops have failed. And ironically, the price of coffee has collapsed. Coffee production supports one quater of Ethiopia's population. Nestle is the worlds largest coffee producer.

Oh yes, Nestle's 2001 profits were US$ 5.5 billion.

Under intense public pressure Nestle is now talking about investing the repayment back into Ethiopia. But it is not yet talking about waiving the debt.

The assets in Ethiopia were nationalised 25 years ago. Nestle did not even own the company at the time. The company is trying to make cash out of a debt that it surely wrote of many years ago.

Nestle's employees and shareholders must be hugely embarrassed. A quick climb down, an apology and a contribution of US$ 6 million to famine relief in Ethiopia would win Nestle many friends. Until then I strongly suggest that you boycott their products.

You can also write to the company using the following link.

http://www.maketradefair.com/spage/english/action14.asp?subcat=1&cat=1&select=1&special=yes

The lyrics to Do They Know Its Christmas:             

Useful Links for this story:

A list of Nestle Products:  http://www.nestle.co.uk/about/brands/

Oxfam: http://www.oxfam.org/eng/

Right sizing Christmas

Sadly this is not an rascott.com original - it is far too funny to be from me !

Twelve Days of Christmas Memo

CORPORATE MEMO

To: All Staff
Date: December 1
Subject: New "Twelve Days of Christmas" Policy

The recent announcement that Donner and Blitzen have elected to take the early reindeer retirement package has triggered a good deal of concern about whether they will be replaced, and about other restructuring decisions at the North Pole.

Streamlining is due to the North Pole's loss of dominance in the season's gift distribution business. Home Shopping TV channels and mail order catalogues have diminished Santa's market share. He and the Board could not sit idly by and permit further erosion of the profit picture.

The reindeer downsizing was made possible through purchase of a late model Japanese sled for the CEO's annual trip. Improved productivity from Dasher and Dancer, who summered at the Harvard Business School, is anticipated. Reduction in the reindeer will also lessen airborne environmental emissions for which the North Pole has received unfavorable press (gas and solid waste).

We're pleased to inform you that Rudolph's role will not be disturbed. Tradition still counts for something at the North Pole!

Management denies, in the strongest possible language, the earlier leak that Rudolph's nose gets red, not from the cold, but from substance abuse. Calling Rudolph "a lush who was into the sauce and never did pull his share of the load" was an unfortunate comment, made by one of Santa's helpers and taken out of context at a time of the year when they are known to be under 'executive stress'.

As for further restructuring, today's global challenges require the North Pole to continue to look for better, more competitive steps. Effective immediately, the following economy measures are to take place in the "Twelve Days of Christmas" music subsidiary:

1) The partridge will be retained, but the pear tree, which never produced the cash crop forecasted, will be replaced by a plastic hanging plant, providing considerable savings in maintenance;

2) Two turtle doves represent a redundancy that is simply not cost effective. In addition, their romance during working hours could not be condoned. The positions are, therefore, eliminated;

3) The three French hens will remain intact. After all, everyone loves the French;

4) The four calling birds will be replaced by an automated voice mail system, with a call waiting option. An analysis is underway to determine who the birds have been calling, how often and how long they talked;

5) The five golden rings have been put on hold by the Board of Directors. Maintaining a portfolio based on one commodity could have negative implications for institutional investors. Diversification into other precious metals, as well as a mix of T-Bills and high technology stocks, appear to be in order;

6) The six geese-a-laying constitutes a luxury which can no longer be afforded. It has long been felt that the production rate of one egg per goose per day was an example of the general decline in productivity. Three geese will be let go, and an upgrading in the selection procedure by personnel will assure management that, from now on, every goose it gets will be a good one;

7) The seven swans-a-swimming is obviously a number chosen in better times. The function is primarily decorative. Mechanical swans are on order. The current swans will be retrained to learn some new strokes, thereby enhancing their outplacement;

8) As you know, the eight maids-a-milking concept has been under heavy scrutiny by the EEOC. A male/female balance in the workforce is being sought. The more militant maids consider this a dead-end job with no upward mobility. Automation of the process may permit the maids to try a-mending, a-mentoring or a-mulching;

9) Nine ladies dancing has always been an odd number. This function will be phased out as these individuals grow older and can no longer do the steps;

10) Ten Lords-a-leaping is overkill. The high cost of Lords, plus the expense of international air travel, prompted the Compensation Committee to suggest replacing this group with ten out-of-work congressmen. While leaping ability may be somewhat sacrificed, the savings are significant as we expect an oversupply of unemployed congressmen this year;

11) Eleven pipers piping and twelve drummers drumming is a simple case of the band getting too big. A substitution with a string quartet, a cutback on new music, and no uniforms, will produce savings which will drop right to the bottom line;

Overall we can expect a substantial reduction in assorted people, fowl, animals and related expenses. Though incomplete, studies indicate that stretching deliveries over twelve days is inefficient. If we can drop ship in one day, service levels will be improved.

Regarding the lawsuit filed by the attorney's association seeking expansion to include the legal profession ("thirteen lawyers-a-suing"), a decision is pending.

Deeper cuts may be necessary in the future to remain competitive. Should that happen, the Board will request management to scrutinize the Snow White Division to see if seven dwarfs is the right number.

Happy Holidays !

Period from 2 December 2002

Cheriegate - never lie to the media !

14 December 2002

The trouble is that  Downing Street, the Prime Minister and his wife failed  to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth from the outset. The public are still not convinced that the truth his now being told. The government's credibility has been weakened.

The Guardian, a newspaper that harbours much goodwill for the government wrote yesterday that,

"Cheriegate is not just about Mrs Blair, her role and judgment. It is also, in a resonant way, about New Labour as a whole. The affair is a catalyst for a wider reflection on the tone and dignity of the government, its leaders, its methods and perhaps even its moral compass."

What the Blairs need to do now is avoid a siege mentality; they need to be public and accountable. They are not being hounded by politicians in the way Bill Clinton was. They are being hounded by parts of the media. The best that they can do is use that media to win back public confidence and support.

Daniel Patrick Moynihan in A Dangerous Place, his book about the United Nations, said of Henry Kissinger: ''Henry does not lie because it is in his interest to lie. He lies because it is in his nature to lie.''

So why on earth did George Bush appoint a man with a legendary reputation for deception to head the so-called independent commission to study the World Trade Center disaster? Did he expect that Kissinger will add credibility to the report? Or rather, did he hope that Kissinger will cover up what needs to be covered up?

Week of  25 November 2002

Thoughts on the Hong Kong Open Golf Championship

29 November 2002

Sport or pastime?

I spent yesterday at the first round of the Omega sponsored Hong Kong Open golf tournament.

The big question is can golf be called a sport?

I used to think of a sport as being defined by whether someone could go further, faster, higher than their opponent; or score more than their opponent. It is that element of competition that defines a sport.

But can a sport be something that you can do when smoking? And so many golfers puff their way around a golf course! I wonder whether a pro golfer can elect to play in a smoking or non smoking group.

Hong Kong's event woes

The open golf is being held at the Hong Kong Golf Club (no longer royal!) in Fanling. It is an old parkland course. And it is not in the best of condition. The course had to be radically changed this year after some of the greens became diseased. So we are left with a short par 69 course that has far too many short par 4s which the pros play as a fairway wood and a short iron. It is a test of target golf not suited to the big hitters.

And the remaining greens are still poor. They are not championship standard. Hong Kong can clearly host an event. The trouble is it does not have world class, or even top class, facilities.

Why golf is so dull to watch

Watching golf is like walking around a library; you are surrounded by people going "shush" at you all the time. I swear the caddies would stop the birds from singing if they could. And the marshals can hear a whisper at 100 yards.

Why not change the game completely. Encourage shouting and chanting. Make it like a football match and there may be a few people turning up. I must have been almost the only paying visitor yesterday. The other five people and a dog who were there (the weather was not good) all had guest passes, players guest passes, press passes or members passes.

Can you imagine the referee trying to silence a 60,000 crowd at Old Trafford as a penalty is taken. It requires the same concentration as a three foot putt. So lets have some noise and some fun on the golf course...choruses of "there is only one Jose-Maria...."

Good value from the big names

The one piece of good news was seeing Messrs Faldo and Olazabal running a golf clinic for local kids some 5 hours after they had both finished their morning rounds. The kids loved it and the players looked relaxed. Now I assume they are both on appearance money from the sponsors and the clinic was part of the package; but it was good to see.

Its a cool yule in the land of political correctness

26 November 2002

My regular reader will know that I am fond of most things Canadian. Toronto is a wonderfully multicultural city; its residents come form all over the world and they speak over 100 different languages.

But there are times when the politically correct, and emotionally naive, make the city of Toronto and the country look very sad and dull indeed.

The sad reality of Saudi Arabia

25 November 2002

The US have allowed the Saudi government to play for both sides for far too long. The US have sought Saudi assistance in a future war with Iraq. Yet at the same time the US has tolerated the Saudi's complicity with anti-Western fundamentalists.

Simply to hold onto their authority the Saudi ruling party have provided shelter for terrorist activity. Now, and this is no great surprise, there is increasing evidence that the Saudis have been funding terrorism. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers of 11 September were from Saudi Arabia; 125 inmates at Camp X-ray, which holds the al-Qaeda suspects at Guantanamo Bay, are from Saudi Arabia.

Week of  18 November 2002

The Miss World fiasco - time to end this anachronism

24 November 2002

It never made any sense for the Miss World contest to be held in Nigeria. What has happened is that the Miss World pageant has fanned the flames of communal hatred and left more than 200 people dead. The organisers can deny it all they like; but their event was the catalyst.

It was of course that country's right to be the host as it is the home of the reigning Miss World. But it made no sense to hold a beauty contest in the middle of the holy month of Ramadan in a country that is tearing itself apart between the Sharia law of the Muslims and the nation's other faiths and its constitution. What were the organisers thinking ?

The Sharia law has been established in 12 of Nigeria's 31 states, all in the impoverished north of the country.

The government insists that the Sharia law is illegal; the government is ignored and the Sharia law is extended not just to the Muslim populations in these states but to Nigeria's christians and other indigenous faiths.

The death penalty is meant to be confirmed throughout the country by the Federal Court. But the Sharia courts regularly impose the ultimate penalty and death sentences have been carried out without recourse to the federal court and without federal government intervention.

Meanwhile a woman, Amina Lawal has been sentenced to death by stoning for having had a baby outside marriage; the sentence to be carried out when she has weaned her daughter. Her appeal to a higher Sharia court has been dismissed.

The Sharia courts routinely sentence prisoners to amputation of limbs and flogging. Yet such punishments are in direct defiance of the Nigerian constitution, which forbids 'cruel and inhuman punishment'.

And then the Miss World contestants arrive. Some refused to go to Nigeria because of the Lawal case. This in itself brought about an increase in (adverse) publicity to the event in the north.

On 17th November the ThisDay newspaper ran an article in support of the pageant and pouring scorn on Muslim criticism of the event.

Despite three front page apologies the Muslim population of Kaduna rioted; ThisDay's offices were torched; the newspaper editor has been arrested and the spreading riots have taken some 200 lives and displaced thousands from their homes.

The beauty queens have now left for London; the event has no UK sponsor and no television support. Lets hope it now goes away for ever.

Meanwhile back in Nigeria just maybe the events of the last week will focus the country's 120 million people on a more peaceful future.

The US calls for a white paper for article 23 in Hong Kong - how ironic !

23 November 2002

The US state department issued a statement yesterday calling for the SAR government in Hong Kong to issue a white paper for public consultation with the exact wording of the proposed Article 23 legislation.

The fact that the US government has made this statement indicates just how serious the issue of Article 23 is.

It also indicates that the SAR government has to date done a poor job of "selling" the proposed legislation and answering the genuine questions and concerns of interested parties.

The USA certainly has a right to be an interested party. Many US citizens are resident in Hong Kong. The article 23 proposals may impact on their personal freedoms.

The trouble is that this is simply not the right time for the USA to be preaching to the rest of the world on the subject of individual freedoms ! This is the country that assassinated alleged terrorists in Yemen without trial. A country deeply fearful of attacks on their homeland, deeply suspicious of foreigners (except Tony Blair, Mr. Bush's favourite poodle), A country that in its fear is embracing the harsh policies of the ultra right wing and a country where Donald Rumsfeld can command a near bottomless budget.

Domestic criticism of the US government is almost non existent. If you are not with us you are against us is the message.

The US State Department may just need to check what is happening in their own country before they start to tell the SAR government what to do !

Webstats for rascott.com

23 November 2002

I am occasionally asked if anyone actually looks at this website.

Well, someone must do; and more would always be welcome. On 13th November there were 684 hits on the site; not all me, I promise. The highest number of unique visits was 41 on November 11th. For November there are on average 20 visits a day and 216 hits.

These may not be huge numbers but out of small acorns grow great oak trees.....

Thank you to all of you who do log onto this site and check out my latest ranting ! Do come back soon - and tell your friends !

Continuing Thai scandals will wear down investors

22 November 2002

Thailand is a wonderful country. Its people are talented and resilient. It deserves a government that can live up to its pre-election promises and deal head on with the rising tide of corruption.

Today's Bangkok Post is very revealing. The three leading stories on the front page stories include:

B27 million (say US$650,000) a year creamed from highway toll revenues, the latest on the lamyai (a fruit) mortgage scandals, collusion in a state firm to inflate a property's purchase price.

Another recent scam include flood victims being given fake compost for use on their farms.

The trouble with each of these conspiracies is that they appear to involve politicians, civil servants and business people acting in unison. And the credibility of the government for its citizens and for foreign investors starts to look very shakey.

There is a National Counter Corruption Commission (not unlike the ICAC in Hong Kong). This Commission needs the support of the Prime Minister and his cabinet. It needs to be visibly seen to be working and to be working quickly and effectively.

Week of  11 November 2002

"Chungking Express" - a timeless tale of surviving life in the big city !

17 November 2002

Sight & Sound Magazine (the monthly magazine of the British Film Institute) asked fifty leading UK film critics for their best films from the past 25 years. In this survey published last week, Chungking Express directed by Wong Kar-Wai came in at number eight, the highest placing of any Asian film.

Released in 1994 this was one of the first Hong Kong films that I saw after coming here and it was the start of my very one sided love affair with Faye Wong.

The simple summary of the film is that there are two stories, two lovelorn cops, two objects of desire: one a big-time heroin dealer in deep trouble with her bosses after the cargo disappears (Brigette Lin), the other a seriously flaky bartender (Faye Wong) who inadvertently gets hold of the keys to Officer 663's (Tony Leung) apartment. The movie is shot in a breathless kaleidoscope of colour and hand-held camerawork to create a mesmerising portrait of Hong Kong in the 1990s.

The following review is from the Los Angeles Times (8 March 1996). If you have not seen this film, and you have any interest in Hong Kong, then read this review and rush out to find a copy of the movie.

One country, two systems - holding back Hong Kong

16 November 2002

"One country, two systems" remains a phrase created by the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping largely to appease the British and to calm the people of Hong Kong. In 1997 the term seemed appropriate as Hong Kong set out upon one of the great experiments of the 21st century - capitalism under the world's biggest communist regime.

Five years on; this same concept holds back Hong Kong. The world's biggest communist regime is the world's biggest one party ruled capitalist regime. Even the Communist party is now embracing capitalists and entrepreneurs into its ranks.

Under the two systems concept Hong Kong was to enjoy the capitalist system and its way of life. Mainland China would stick to its socialist system. But Hong Kong has no democracy. No elected representation of the people. Worse still we are basically governed by big business taking care themselves; not by career politicians looking for the wealth and stability of the nation.

Economically, socially, culturally and politically Hong Kong is becoming more and more tightly bound by the grip of its new master. Economically its dependence upon China grows daily; socially, there are large-scale influxes of mainland immigrants and visitors. Culturally, its unique East-West character is steadily waning, becoming more like another Chinese city, just take a trip to Shatin town center if you doubt this. Politically, Hong Kong has moved further away from any semblance of a democratic society. Despite polls showing public support for Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa at only 30 percent he was still re-elected  unopposed to a second five-year term as the chief executive although not directly elected by the people but by a special electoral committee managed by China.

There is also the clear increase is self censorship by Hong Kong's previously unrestrained press as the consequence of infusions of Chinese capital into their operations.

At the time of its takeover, China promised that Hong Kong would be ruled by its own people and that its economic system would remain unchanged for a 50-year period. Five years on we are ruled from Beijing and substantially dependent on the mainland economy.

Cross border interaction dominates daily lives. Hong Kong's brightest and best look to China for work as the Hong Kong economy struggles. In 2001 Hong Kong's almost 7million residents made 117 million cross-border trips. Why do they go - for many it is simply that the cost of living across the border is so much lower. Simply put, Hong Kong's cost structure is too high relative to its productivity and its competition.

This week the government interfered, sorry passed legislation, to prop up property prices. This is not what Hong Kong needs. Lower property prices might upset home owners and the property developers but they also reduce costs encouraging investment and new business start ups.

Hong Kong's guaranteed 50 years of autonomy and self governance may be its very downfall. Hong Kong needs to be a part of a region attracting investment and tourism, a region managing the environment and a region that welcomes and nurtures talent.

Name one major world event that now take place in Hong Kong. The investment and leisure dollars are starting to bypass Hong Kong and move directly to China. Mission Hills announced last week that by 2004 their facility will have ten eighteen hole golf courses making it the largest golf facility in the world. Hong Kong cannot compete with investments of this scale; therefore we have to share in the prosperity that this can bring to the region.

We need more rapid integration that that proposed under one country two systems. It seems a nonsense that the existing border is the difference between an average annual salary of US$20,000 and an average annual salary of US$5,000. The two have to come together at a rate set by the market, not by the border.

There are great advantages in Hong Kong's lifestyle and its autonomy. Hong Kong residents pay no taxes to China. The civil service remains effective and clean. The ICAC goes after wrongdoing wherever it is found, in Hong Kong and mainland companies alike. The Falun Gong, banned on the mainland, remains legal here, albeit marginal. Organizations like the Center for Human Rights in China continue to operate here.

And above all a stable and transparent legal system with an independent judiciary perceived to be meting out justice fairly is the underlying guarantee of everything else. It is also a decisive competitive advantage for Hong Kong's economy. But ask any educated person across the bored and they would welcome an active anti corruption authority and a transparent legal system.

Over the last five years developments in China and the region have made clear the need for significant adaptation in the operation of the "one country, two systems" arrangement.

Improving cross border traffic flows, better co-ordinating infrastructure developments and tourism initiatives, is all a step in the right direction. Hong Kong people already look more positively towards China.

It is time to go further. One country, two systems says we are different and have different goals. Actually those goals are coming together very quickly. In should not take us two generations to reach full unification. This concept needs to be re-thought and new targets set. One example might come from the USA. The states still have significant authority over issues such as taxes and the judiciary; but their are no barriers to the movement of cash and human capital.

Can low cost airlines fly in Asia?

14 November 2002

The no-frills (or low cost) airlines are now well established in Europe and North America. Not just taking passengers away from the major airlines these new carriers have created new demand for air travel.

On a more limited scale the low cost model has come to Asia in the form of Air Asia, in Malaysia, and Virgin Blue, in Australia.

The big question is can this model operate on a wider scale in Asia.

The big answer is yes, but in time, and only with significant market liberalisation. The demand is certainly there. Air travel volume in Asia Pacific is forecast to triple by the year 2020.

To succeed low cost carriers need the following:

China : The Aviation Market for the next 25 years

14 November 2002

The rate of growth of the aviation industry in China should not be underestimated. Distances are huge; road and rail infrastructure is limited. It is reasonable to assume that domestic air travel in China will resemble the US market within the next 25 years but on an even greater scale given the larger population base.

At the same time the aviation industry will support a rapid growth in both outbound and inbound business and leisure travel.

Consider some statistics:

In 2002 12 million mainland Chinese traveled overseas to "approved destinations".  The big markets are to Hong Kong and Macau; over 0.5 million tourists each year travel to Thailand and to Vietnam. Travel to Australia and New Zealand is expected to grow by 20% per annum.  A young, educated population with money to spend is now ready to explore the world beyond China.

By 2020 China will receive 130 million tourists a year making it the world's leading tourist destination.

Airbus and Boeing expect to sell 1,800 commercial airliners to China over he next 20 years.

From Hong Kong you can fly to at least 40 cities in China.

57 airlines from 47 countries (outside China and Hong Kong) fly to 20 destinations in China.

Hong Kong's population is 7 million

In the Pearl River Delta there are 300 million people.

In China there are about 100 airports supporting 1.3 billion people; compare this to 429 commercial airports supporting 280 million people in the USA and Canada.

In the US over 11 million jobs are related to the civil aviation industry. Imagine what this figure might be in China in 20 years time.

The dot-com bubble

13 November 2002

In a moment of nostalgia I was looking through a fairly recent collection of business cards: remember some of these great names:

asiacontent.com; bigonthenet.com; chinaweb.com; chinanet.com; chinaenternet.com; chinarem.com; enjoy100.com; ethnicearth.com; gorillasia.com; go2020.com; hunhun.com; icare.com; igolfallday.com; isteelasia.com; iamasia.com; myrice.com; nuuwz.com; ebusinessisbusiness.com; renren.com; sinobit.com; totalsportsasia.com; 2bsure.com

Some of these businesses may still exist; some will be extinct. But all were a tribute to entrepreneurism, hard work, greed, ambition, and simple market forces.

The internet boom and bust lasted just five or six years, arguably from 1996 to 2001; it might have been the most important business phenomenon of the last fifty years.

Asia perhaps arrived a little late into the boom period. Many of Asia's start ups were thin copies of US and European businesses. But it is also fair to say that some companies were responsible for true technological innovation and for very real changes in accepted business models. They also challenged established businesses to innovate and to embrace the internet more quickly than they otherwise might have done.

Three things Asia is not short of are cash, risk-takers and smart people. The dot-com companies were perfect for Asia. There was a creative and talented labour force, willing touts (sorry, investment bankers) to talk up the values, and willing investors looking for a winner; just like a day at the races !

Too many dot coms unfortunately did not have real products aimed at real customers. Established businesses had a customer base and in most cases knew how to look after them. They have outlived the dot coms.

The trouble is there were simply not enough good companies to go around.

But they were great days. People worked incredibly hard. People partied, talked and played.  Perhaps sanity has prevailed. But it is far less fun.

Leading in turbulent times

13 November 2002

When the dot com bubble burst thousands of companies were panicking. Staff were fired; perks were cut; travel budgets slashed; new products canceled.

What many companies ignored was the need to grow their revenue line while managing their costs. The best way to keep a company in good health is to get people to buy your products. You have to grow revenue to build value. Continually eroding costs simply removes value from an organisation.

How and where you cut costs is just as important as whether you cut costs. Poorly designed and executed cost reductions will cut value from a company; they reduce your long term competitiveness for short term cost savings.

In the cost cutting environment fear rules. Managers worry that they have or will fail and will lose their job. Employees worry that the cost cutter will get them next. These are emotional issues that many companies stop to address as they head into irrational panic.

What sort of leadership will succeed in these turbulent times? Some leaders see revenues slowing; they panic and start to slash and burn their costs. Some leader take no action at all, they are either paralyzed or clueless; they willfully ignore the data. Others accept the reality and evaluate their costs carefully seeking expenses that are not critical to the mission of the business and then start cutting.  This is the group most likely to succeed. Their approach is thoughtful but decisive. Their focus is to ensure that their business can still compete. They will communicate what they have to do and why; and for the most part, they will get the support of all of the company's stakeholders.

The evil weed

12 November 2002

I am never sure how anyone can justify managing or investing in the tobacco industry. Smoking kills. Smoking related disease costs global health services millions or billions each year.

The trouble is governments have neither the courage or the incentive to simply ban smoking. For a democracy such a decision would immediately alienate a large part of the electorate. It is hard to imagine how another party could capitalise on such a decision and still claim they were morally right; but capitalise on it they would, probably justified by some specious freedom of choice argument.

And then there is the tax revenue and duties. Without tobacco these tax revenues would have to be recovered elsewhere.

Around the world we have dubious alliances between western companies and military and unelected regimes. British American Tobacco owns the brands Dunhill, Rothmans and Lucky Strike. They have a factory in Myanmar which is a 60/40 joint venture with a company owned by that country's military government.

Myanmar is the name given to the country by the soldiers who have run it for four decades and which refused to allow the National League for Democracy to take its rightful place in government despite it winning 82% of the seats in free elections in 1990.

Kenneth Clarke, former Chancellor in Britain, wrote in a letter to his constituents that "The problem with Burma arises when companies start collaborating with an extremely unpleasant regime which is totally contrary to our notions of civil liberties and democracy."

Oops, Kenneth Clarke is a Director of BAT.

The royal victims of a circulation war

11 November 2002

Spare a thought for the two sons of the ill-fated marriage between Charles and Diana. Every morning they wake up to new and lurid revelations about the family that they have been born into. There must be times when they would happily swap privilege for a role amongst us commoners.

Talking of commoners the gutter press is now in full flow. Mr. Burrell took the Mirror's money. Mirror circulation is up some 300,000 a day so they will milk their prize for all it is worth. Meanwhile the Sun and its stable mate the News of the World, having had their higher offer turned down by Mr. Burrell, are showing the vengeance of a newspaper spurned.

Even the Herald Tribune is now reporting on three of the more damaging stories to emerge over the weekend - the "claims that the Prince of Wales hushed up the rape of a manservant (one George Smith) by one of his closest aides, that courtiers regularly brought male prostitutes into royal palaces, and that Paul Burrell ... had once taken a male lover of his own on a tour of the Queen's private apartment".


The Sun, that bastion of objectivity, went further.  Mr Smith also claims to have witnessed "an incident between a member of the [Royal] Family and a servant". He recorded the details on a videotape made by Princess Diana in 1996 and kept in the now famous locked wooden box which appears to be somewhere in the care of Mr.  Burrell. Now that should make for an interesting discussion over the Cornflakes in Buck House - who was it and what happened?

The Queen may be muttering about another annus horribilis - but in the circumstances that is probably not an appropriate expression !

A better question will soon be - should we care? The answer is an emphatic no. The monarchy's history is littered with scandals and sexual intrigue. The very stuff that sells newspapers. Just maybe the press and the royal family deserve each other. Abolish the family and the press has to find another victim.

(I hereby promise not to write another word about Mr. Burrell)

Week of  4 November 2002

Settling down

10 September 2002

I grew up (more than a few years ago) in what most people would regard as a very traditional British home. My parents had three children in rapid succession before either of them turned 30 years old. My mother ceased to work so that she could look after the children. I went to a good primary school. We had holidays in Wales (one in a caravan on the Gower Peninsular will never be forgotten !) and I learned to play the piano.

It must have been phenomenally hard work to bring up three kids that are so close in age as we all clammered for attention. It must have been hard financially. We rented out a room on the top floor of our house to help the costs. And we ate a lot of baked beans !

But my parents did well. They prospered and on the whole their children have done so as well.

But the values, way of life and experiences of their generation are already so out of date. In the course of one generation all of our thoughts on family life and responsibility have changed. It may be that the structure of family life has changed more in this generation than ever before in history.

I always thought of my father as an adult. But when I was born he was barely out of University. He went straight from being a teenager to being an adult. He took on adult responsibilities. Now we postpone these; now even the adult in us would rather be associated with youth. As our generation ages we aspire to all the things that we associate with young people. We want to be more multicultural, we want to embrace technology, we want to take risks, try new things, we want a younger looking body and will spend money to get it ! We mature later, if ever !

The very notion of settling down is changing. How can we be settled? We cannot maintain relationships. The average length of a British marriage is nine years; in the USA this is as little as seven. China is now seeing a rapidly increasing divorce rate. People marry later and they live longer.

Financial security is less certain. Many full time jobs have left the economy to be replaced by short term contracts and job insecurity.

We can form relationships later in life and children can be postponed until we are in our 30s and 40s.

Maybe a long term relationship or marriage has been regarded too much like a job. Something that is meant to be for a lifetime. What we might not all have seen is how quickly that job for life has become much more insecure. As in the workplace the relationships that people have are subject to huge stresses, new demands and regular change. In the workplace people increasingly expect to have a number of different careers. Maybe the new family structure is heading down that same path. And with so much uncertainty what can the next generation expect. Maybe the traditional family structure is not the answer for the future. Maybe we will evolve, and return, to more of a communal or tribal structure where the next generation grows up in a community of people who support each other and form more free flowing relationships among themselves. It would be a very different world.

The Long March to Capitalism

9 November 2002

In his long address to the 16th Party Congress of the Communist Party in Beijing President Jiang Zemin opened wide the party's doors to accept the monied and the elite as party members and leaders.

The party needs the support of private enterprise to retain its iron hand over  the country. At the same time private enterprise needs a stable government that will drive growth from within a stable environment. The two sides need eachother. Protection of income and protection of private property are watchwords for the new China. A far cry from the cultural revolution of less than forty years ago.

Conspicuous consumption is everywhere in the modern Chinese cities of the East Coast. People have money and have no qualms flaunting it.

But since unprecedented economic growth and improvements in living standards will fortify the position of the communist party in China no-one should expect any change in the political landscape. One party rule is here in China for a long time.

Some statistics from the Guardian newspaper are symptomatic of the new China:

Almost 1.5m people in Shanghai are without running water and the World Bank estimates that 18.5% of the Chinese population live on less than $1 a day

Republican win opens the way for Bush's right wing agenda.

7 November 2002

With the results of the mid-term polls now collated President George W Bush now controls the US White House. the Senate and the House of Representatives. He can of course now also control the judiciary.

Make no mistake, the US swung well to the right  this week and there are no checks and balances to hold back a right wing agenda and a war against Iraq. George W Bush sees this weeks results as a referendum on his leadership. Forget compassionate conservatism. There will be little that is compassionate in this rejuvenated administration.

The only checks are not domestic. They are the US' European allies and the United Nations. The US/Europe relationship will be particularly interesting. Europe is predominantly more socialist in its leanings, less materialistic and less likely to accept government by the corporate enterprises that now dominate US politics.

Big business will be protected. The environment will not. And tax cuts will be legislated in time for the 2004 Presidential election much to the favour of the Republicans.

Expect the US political agenda to be dominated by gun lobbyists, military hawks, pre-emption apologists, anti-abortionists, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporates and hanging judges.

The Democratic opposition looks leaderless and agenda-less. President Bush could not be better placed for a second term. Six more years. Frightening.

Attack of the drones

7 November 2002

Not everyone will have picked up the significance of what happened in the Yemeni desert this week. An unmanned CIA drone fired a Hellfire missile into a car to execute six alleged terrorists.

I must have missed something: this is insane.

Executing six people in a foreign land is an act of war. No war has been declared. There are certain basic rules of sovereignty. These have been conveniently ignored.

No trial was held for the victims. There is no way to determine their guilt or innocence.

If the same six men had been in a car in Central in Hong Kong or Pall Mall in London would the CIA have carried out the same action?

Why is there no uproar at this action; why is there silence in the United Nations?

What we have here is pre-meditated murder carried out by a faceless executor. If you can get a drone close enough to fire a missile you can get a military team close enough to make an arrest.

We will never know whether these men were terrorists or otherwise. There are a lot of questions that should be asked, answers that should be demanded.

Misguided prejudice

5 November 2002

I am glad I am not James Tien, the chairman of Hong Kong's Liberal Party. I would not be able to sleep for embarrassment.

Yesterday he proposed that foreign domestic helpers in Hong Kong should be taxed HK$500 per month to help with the budget deficit.

The minimum wage in Hong Kong is HK$3,670. Many maids only make this amount despite six day weeks, responsibility for children and long hours.

Under the tax system in Hong Kong no tax is payable on earnings less than HK$9,000 a month. The Liberal parties proposal is rank prejudice.

Why the Hong Kong cricket sixes portend more bloodshed to come

5 November 2002

Living in Hong Kong are active, significant and vocal minorities from across Asia. There are lively Indian, Pakistani and Sri Lankan communities. Most of the European and North American nations are well represented as of course are the nations of East Asia.

The annual cricket 6s are an event where many of these nations come together for a celebration of fast food cricket. There is enough money and professional pride at stake to make it competitive. But for too many of the supporters it is a chance for flag waving and inane jingo-ism.

Last year the event was held less than two months after the 11 September attack. There were Pakistan supporters in the crowd calling for a holy war - a Jihad. It was not in fun. It was a hostile crowd. Now it may not have been no more than 50 people but it was enough to be intimidating. At that point I decided I would not attend this year.

The SCMP on its front page and on the letters page reports today that one idiot (and that is a polite term) wore an Osama bin Laden mask to the 6s on Sunday, and carried the Pakistan flag. He was allowed to walk to the west stand and to make obscene gestures in front of English and Australian supporters. Not surprisingly he was pelted with beer cans which then led to a group of Pakistanis charging the stand. Women and children were caught up in this. Officials and stewards stood and watched.

A number of Hong Kong residents lost family and friends in the recent Bali bombings. New York is still a painful memory for many. Stewards and security staff should have been sensitive to potential provocation and taken action. Bags were searched as people entered the ground. Food and drink were removed so that the in ground caterers could make their sales. By the time he was taunting the west stand it was too late to act.

What does it all mean?  Feelings run high. Osama bin Laden's supporters are spread globally. And it really is a simple question of what happens next and where. And it also means that the 6s will have even fewer westerners attending next year.

What did the butler see?

4 November 2002

What did Paul Burrell know?  We will now have to wait for his carefully sanitised memoirs. Had he given evidence in court under oath we may have learned much more about her family's secrets.

And that is at the heart of the Queen's calculated actions last week. She was not saving the loyal servant. After all she had been happy to let him stew for almost two years. She was protecting the family. Motivated self interest.

The only way to be sure to silence Mr. Burrell was to release details of their confidential conversation. A conversation which lasted three hours. Prince Charles apparently is lucky to get a few minutes. Tony Blair maybe an hour at best. And it took her 22 months to recall the conversation with Mr. Burrell.

The loyal servant had said nothing. He was protecting the families secrets and the contents of wooden box kept by the late Princess of Wales that contained letters and other items that could severely embarrass the royal family likely including further revelations about the future King and his unusual looking girlfriend.

She stopped the trial because she knew there were revelations to come. The Windsors have known all along that Mr. Burrell was trying to keep their tawdry secrets. And they were not planning to do a thing about it. Only when it looked as though he might be forced to give evidence under oath did they act.

A frank and full statement from Buckingham Palace would be as appropriate as it is unlikely. Paying Mr. Burrell's legal costs would also be appropriate.

Week of  28 October 2002

Upstairs Downstairs - a very British fetish

3 November 2002

It was on 18 January 2001 when the police searched the Cheshire home of Paul Burrell, butler to the late Princess of Wales and arrested him on suspicion of theft.

The police leaked (how convenient) details of what they found including personal letters and photographs; the clear implication was that Burrell had removed items that he could subsequently sell at considerable value.

On 3 August 2001 the police visited Prince Charles and his son Prince William to explain the details of their charges. Their vivid imaginations painted a horrifying picture of the once trusted butler.

In January 2002 the Crown Prosecution Service sought to take the case to trial. But an Old Bailey judge agreed that the trial would be a distraction from the events of the Queen's Golden Jubilee celebrations; so the trial of an innocent man was delayed until the autumn.

As the trial started the Queen was in Canada (where they clearly do not have newspapers or regular contact with events back in the UK.) On returning to England she had to attend a memorial service for the Bali bomb victims in St Pauls.

We are led to believe that as she and Charles sat in the car they discussed the Burrell case and the Queen suddenly recovered from her amnesia and remembered a 1997 meeting with Burrell where he had told the Queen that he was holding some of the late Princess' belongings for safe keeping.

The Queen is reported to be an intelligent woman; she apparently reads newspapers and watches the news. How could she have been unaware of the importance of the information that she had. How could she, her advisors and courtiers have so willingly allowed Paul Burrell and his family to endure 22 months of great distress. Maybe she should be charged with obstructing justice?

Charles advised his staff to notify the police and the prosecution case was blown open; albeit by hearsay evidence without a witness statement.

What is the result of this farce: serious embarrassment to the police, the Crown Prosecution Service, the royal family and the judicial system. Incidentally the trial cost about gbp 1.5 million.

Let us hope Mr. Burrell gets the apology from all parties that is due to him; let us hope the police take appropriate action to reprimand the social climbers, and fantasists in their number.

For the Queen this will be the crowning memory of her Golden Jubilee year; overshadowed by a Princess who has been dead for 5 years. She and her family look callous, out of touch, and frankly, redundant.

The Observer newspaper took a serious look at the legal aspects of this case; and asked the following rather relevant questions:

Asia's sleaze city

3 November 2002

Hong Kong has again revealed its astonishing insensitivity with the publication of a front page picture of a well known Hong Kong actress distraught and topless in Eastweek magazine last Wednesday.

The picture was apparently taken twelve years ago when the actress was allegedly kidnapped and assaulted. No charges were filed at the time. The magazine argued that the picture was published to show that the entertainment industry is not all glamour and the good life. It is a reasonable guess that the magazine consulted with its lawyers before publishing the picture. Which makes the lawyers and anyone else privy to the decision to publish, equally contemptible.

The magazine has been widely criticised for its outrageous invasion of the woman's privacy. The trouble is that the magazine without disclosing the actress' name made it all to clear who she was. The picture failed to protect her identity. The magazine described her and her friends and so we all were sure included a separate article on the actress and her boyfriend.

On Friday the magazine apologized for the story saying: "we did not mean to insult or hurt the victim". However, East Week defended its actions through the following statement: "When we received the photo, we engaged in vigorous debate about whether or not to cover up the truth. The decision to run the photo is based on the journalistic duties of revealing truth and observing society."

This is of course complete nonsense. The magazine used the photograph to boost circulation and create publicity. What they probably did not expect was the backlash they have received.

The magazine is owned by the Emperor group. Publication has been suspended by its owner, Emperor Group chairman, Albert Yeung Sau-shing.  The government is investigating whether there was any criminal act in publishing the picture.

You can write and protest to the Emperor Group at this email:

emperor@emperorgroup.com.hk

The immediate resignation of the magazine's editor would be a good start. But it really does not deal with the true cause; this city is a place that increasingly lacks a conscience

Comprendez-vous les French?

1 November 2002

It is quite hard to work out why it is the French voice at he UN Security Council that is the most vocal in restraining the US from unilateral action against Iraq.

For the last two weeks the French and the US have been negotiating acceptable words to the latest resolution to be put to the security council.

Why are the French standing their ground. I do not believe that President Chirac has any great affection for either Iraq or its leader. I think he wants to defend the role of the UN security council and to wage a campaign against the US policy of pre-emptive and unilateral action.

For this the French should be applauded.

I suspect the French are also fully aware that Iraq will never comply fully with the very strict obligations likely to be imposed on it next week by the security council.

The following guide from the Guardian newspaper in England may help explain le histoire of Anglo/French rivalry:

Issue a white bill for article 23

31 October 2002

The motives of Hong Kong's government are becoming ever more obvious. They want to manage the interests of Beijing; not the interests of the people of Hong Kong.

There is a widespread belief that the government should produce a white bill for the article 23 legislation. This would be an actual draft of the bill giving precise details of the proposed laws; white bills are issued for public consultation.

But the government wants to move directly form its discussion document to a blue bill which would be presented to the "yes men and women" in the Legislative Council.

The government appears to believe that the issues are too complex for serious public debate. But that severely underestimates the intelligence of Hong Kong people and the extent to which they are interested in this subject. It is a serious issue; the people take it seriously and they deserve a leadership that takes them seriously as well.

Create demand; cost cutting is not enough

29 October 2002

In the middle of the month share prices in my old employer fell to levels not seen since 1991. Announcing the third quarter results the CEO said "looking ahead, we see market conditions worsening as financial services firms retrench still further...In this environment, we will continue our strong focus on managing down our cost base."

But as shareholders and employees of any company surely we should expect more than this.

In the recent earnings period in the USA many of the positive results came as a result of cost cutting rather than actual growth in the company's core market.

In the short term shareholders may accept earnings however they are arrive. But sustained profitability cannot come without external growth. Penny pinching is not enough to build a business.

My old company along with others continues to mislead the markets by excluding onetime restructuring charges, stock options expenses and other things from their earnings and from their forecasts in order to make them more impressive.

As an example office equipment company Xerox reported on October 23 that its net income jumped to $105-million or 5 cents a share, more than double what analysts were expecting and up from a loss of 5 cents or $32-million last year. However, its revenue was down by more than 6 per cent over 2001, and was well below estimates. Xerox said the boost in profits were the result of "operational improvements." Does this sound familiar?

There is no question that many companies needed significant cost cutting after some of the excesses of the 1990s. Cost cutting may position some companies for higher growth if and when business begins to recover. But the truth, surely, is that you cannot make wave after wave of cost cutting without at some point finding that you cannot go anywhere. All of the energy, initiative and creativity that drives a company may have been squeezed out of it. And your customers, starved of any new product, will all be ready to jump to something newer and better.

Cost-cutting is valuable, and worthwhile — but it's no substitute for finding out what both your existing and new customers need and continuing to give it to them. Sustained growth is driven by real external growth in demand.

Week of  21 October 2002

What is the right response to terrorism?

26 October 2002

Imagine the scene was a packed Broadway theatre and not a Moscow theatre. Imagine some 800 hostages, the theatre doors mined, their captors wearing bombs and a huge bomb in the middle of the room.

The captors demands will never be met by the government and the captors start to shoot hostages.

This was the nightmare situation faced by the Russian authorities.

But how is a successful operation defined. At what time do you stop negotiating and use force. My guess is that US negotiators would have waited longer. Loss of innocent lives is not so readily tolerated; not on this scale.

The death toll is close to 150; it may rise further. The authorities refuse to describe the incapacitating gas that was used. But they have to. It appears that most of the hostages died as a result of inhaling this gas - not as a result of gunfire.

In Moscow state television is seeking to show President Putin as a decisive leader in the war on terrorism, and as a humanitarian showing his sympathy for the bereaved and touring hospitals.

The war in Chechnya has been fought since 1994. There are atrocities on both sides. There is little respect for life and rape and torture have been documented by Human Rights Watch as one way that the Russians inflict their control.

Putin will want to take a hard line and extend the Russian campaign into Chechnya. While he is unlikely to get US support he will get their complicity. The US needs Russian support against Iraq. And Russia will use the too common modern argument that it has to deal with a terrorist threat. In the meantime the world will continue to ignore Chechnya in the same way that it ignored Afghanistan and perhaps with the same frightening long term consequences.

Hong Kong's new air routes

26 October 2002

New passenger air routes following completion of the HKG/USA air services agreement are now expected to include the following flights per week:

7x HKG-NRT-HKG (operated by United Airlines - this flight is would now be twice daily)
4x HKG-KIX(Osaka)-HKG (most likely be operated by United)
14x HKG-SIN-HKG (It is possible that NW & CO will share 7 weekly each and that NW is an additional flight from the USA. The CO flight would be an extension of its Newark-HKG flight and with the overnight staying at SIN instead of HKG.

The SIN route is already competitive. In addition to CX and SQ - you can fly non stop on daliy flights from Qantas, China Airlines, Garuda and United.

President Jiang's Texas BBQ

24 October 2002

On Friday 25 October President Jiang Zemin will crown his political career with a BBQ.

Do not doubt the importance of the symbolism. Jiang is being taken into the family home of the President of the United States of America. President Putin and Prime Minister Blair have signed the Crawford Ranch guest book. Now it is the turn of the Chinese President. For the President and for China this may be the country's coming of age as a world power.

Certainly links between China and the USA are strong now. Even the rhetoric over issues such as Taiwan, Falun Gong and Human Rights has been toned down dramatically.

It is likely that China will acquiesce and accept the latest US proposal to the UN security council. China takes its new and elevated status on the world stage seriously. China wants to work within the UN to deal with the Iraq issue but also recognises that Iraq's continued flouting of UN resolutions weakens the position of the UN and has to be dealt with.

China will likely push for a similar UN led approach to North Korea.

The two leaders have a one hour meeting, a lunch and a tour of the ranch in Mr. Bush's pick up truck. Their meeting will have largely already been scripted behind the scenes as will any joint communique. 

Strong US/China relations will be a force for stability for this and future generations. Jiang will take, and probably deserves, much of the credit for the current goodwill. I hope they enjoy their lunch.

The nobel peace prize - a legacy unfulfilled

22 October 2002

There really should be some way of recalling the Nobel peace prize if the award becomes invalidated by subsequent actions. This is not to cast any doubt on the well meaning intentions of the award's winners; however, where their efforts have not led to sustained change then really why should the award be given or retained.

I would argue that a number of the winners of the prize are representatives of governments or bodies that are empowered and required to deliver peace on our planet. The prize would better serve those who make a difference to the world from positions and places where we would least expect them to.

Alfred Nobel, a Swedish scientist and industrialist intended the the peace prize to go to the person "who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses".

Let's have a look at the winners of the Nobel peace prize over the last 15 years:

Pyongyang's nuclear threat

21 October 2002

It should not come as any surprise that North Korea flagrantly ignored the 1994 agreement that was supposed to halt their development of nuclear weapons. Should we be concerned? Absolutely. North Korea has weapons of mass destruction. Iraq meanwhile appears to be still developing them. And it was not a cowering confession from North Korea. It was a statement of proud defiance.

Under this 1994 deal (which Jimmy Carter was in part responsible for and which contributed to his 2002 Nobel Peace prize) the USA, Japan, South Korea and others would provide North Korea with fuel oil and build nuclear reactors to provide electricity.

What is surprising is that Pyongyang has confessed its continuing development. In doing so North Korea effectively raised two fingers (or the local equivalent) to South Korea's sunshine policy of reconciliation and to the Japanese Prime Minister's recent visit and commitments of aid.

Just to add a little more confusion to the mix Pakistan is alleged to have provided assistance to North Korea's nuclear program.

So just so that we are all clear:

One member of the USA labeled axis of evil has nuclear weapons. The US will continue its dialogue. One member of the axis of evil is alleged to be developing weapons of mass destruction and the US and certain allies are threatening imminent attack and calling for the overthrow of the regime. And an critical ally in the US led war on terror has been supplying nuclear know how to one of the terror states. It certainly pays to know who your friends are.

The USA certainly does not want another Korean War. And the proximity of North Korea to the US allies of South Korea and Japan will mean that the USA lets its allies take a lead role in setting strategy.

The North Koreans are using nuclear blackmail; if they are seen to succeed and are granted greater aid, support and welfare then there will be plenty of encouragement for other states to follow. And it will make the US hardline on Iraq look very isolated.

A message does need to get through to Pyongyang. Subsidies can no longer be given form Japan; US$10 billion had been proposed after the Prime Minister's visit. Development of the nuclear reactors should cease. Building rail and road links from South Korea should cease. The UN needs to insist that North Korea has to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction. Weapons inspectors from the UN should oversee this dismantling.  It will be a game of brinkmanship with North Korea. The stakes have risen dramatically in the last week.

Air services pact is good for Hong Kong

21 October 2002

The concluded USA/Hong Kong air services pact appears so simple you have to wonder why it took three years. In the end Hong Kong's airlines appear to have gained less than their US counterparts. Hong Kong, however, should see an overall benefit. New freight and passenger routes have a knock on effect to the local economy needing additional hotels, catering, logistics and trade support.

The deal is as follows:

US carriers will be given fifth freedom rights from Hong Kong for 64 weekly cargo flights - up from the present 8. The big winners here must be UPS and Fedex. The losers must be Air HongKong/Cathay Cargo and DragonAir cargo.

The Hong Kong carriers have equivalent fifth freedom rights from the USA but are unlikely to be able to benefit given the sheer scale of existing cargo operators in the USA.

US carriers will also be given fifth freedom rights from Hong Kong for 56 passenger flights, double the current 28 per week. The big winner here is United who already ae well established in Hong Kong. But it is unlikely that we will see any new passenger routes immediately. The US carriers are struggling. Maybe an second daily Hong Kong to Tokyo flight from United and in time a daily American flight are the most likely. United might also consider returning to Delhi. Continental could extend their New York flight.

The fifth freedom rights exposes Cathay to more competition form US carriers on its money spinning routes in Asia. Cathay 's fear is that the US carriers will sell heavily discounted seats in Asia in order to get connecting traffic onto their trans Pacific routes. The deal may also jeopardise Dragonair's regional expansion plans.

Hong Kong's status as a regional cargo and passenger hub is also buttressed. This is important as airports in the region become more competitive and new airports come on stream such as Guangzhou.

Cathay gets permission to code share with American on flights to 20 U.S. cities. This allows Cathay and American Airlines to effectively boost their reach and connections by selling seats on each others' airline. This is probably more limited access than Cathay were hoping for.

On the whole the deal should be a welcome boost for Hong Kong. It is good to see that the government negotiator's recognised the need to put Hong Kong's best interests first. It is a repetitive arrogance of Cathay Pacific that they confuse their best interests with those of the city and its people.

Week of  14 October 2002

Hong Kong and US close in on new air services deal

19 October 2002

Hong Kong and the USA look set (at last) to sign a new air services agreement after almost three years of often painful negotiation.

Cathay Pacific and American Airlines look set to be the big winners here with each allowed to codeshare on eachothers' USA and Asian flights respectively.

The codesharing arrangement will give CX customers access to most major cities in the USA through onward connections from CX international flights onto domestic AA flights which will carry a CX flight number.

The same arrangement will work in reverse with AA flight numbers assigned to CX flights in Asia.

In terms of new traffic into HKG the following are likely:

AA will start flying from the USA to HKG in 2003. This flight might originate from Dallas.

US Cargo carriers will be granted an increase from 8 to 58 fifth freedom flights allowing onward connections from HKG into Asia. US passenger carriers will be allowed to increase from 29 to 58 their onward flights from HKG to a wider range of Asian destinations.

With CX getting such an important boost it is likely that the authorities will grant Dragonair's request to compete with CX on certain regional routes.

This Seaman may not be so able but where are the cadets?

18 October 2002

The vitriol displayed by the English press against England's experienced and slightly aging goalkeeper is astonishing. It is offensive. And it must cause great hurt to David Seaman and his family and friends.

And what was his crime? He let in a goal direct from a corner. The ball was hit fast, with a huge amount of spin and dip. Ask the striker to do it again - and maybe one time in one hundred he can. Should Seaman have dealt with it? Yes he should and he will be first to admit it. Was it an easy save? Not at all.

There is no escape as a goalkeeper; he is the last line of defence. And with modern tv every mistake is seen and repeated from every angle.

This was the offering from the Sun newspaper in England.

So when everyone has finished having fun with David Seaman let us think about the alternatives; Calamity James could have been one of the greats. But his temperament is suspect and he is very error prone. Paul Robinson has only had some 25 first team games for Leeds. He started the season brightly but looks less certain already. And Chris Kirkland languishes in the Liverpool reserve team.

My guess. Seaman does not need this abuse. He will retire from international football. He will go on to have a stellar season with Arsenal who will win the Premiership and maybe even the European Cup.

And when England play their next international in February England may find that they want the old boy back again !

While I am venting on this subject let us consider the rest of the England team. Worldwide television makes many England players world famous. But worldwide television is no guaranty that the same players are world class. Two of three are; but the rest are simply not up to standard.

The forgotten casualties of Bali

16 October 2002

I will keep this note short and forgive me if anyone is offended by it.

But as I watch the injured being taken from Bali to Australia and Singapore for medical treatment I do wonder how many injured and burnt Balinese are left behind with their pain being tended to in local and ill equipped Balinese hospitals.

Although medical supplies have been sent from Australia it would surely have served the western countries well and been a remarkable symbol of unity in the face of terror if there had been more of an effort to take all the severely injured irrespective of home and nationality to hospitals with the best available medical care.

No scad in this election (or was it "scud"?)

16 October 2002

The Associated Press reports that :

Saddam Hussein won another seven-year term as Iraq's president in a referendum in which he was the sole candidate, taking 100 per cent of the vote, the Iraqi leader's right-hand man announced today.

All 11,445,638 of the eligible voters cast ballots, Izzat Ibrahim, vice chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council that is Iraq's key decision-making body.

"This is a unique manifestation of democracy which is superior to all other forms of democracies even in these countries which are besieging Iraq and trying to suffocate it," Ibrahim said at a news conference in Baghdad, apparently referring to the United States

The White House had dismissed the one-man race in advance, and the results seemed to bear out the criticism. To get a vote total at all — let alone a 100 per cent "yes" vote — Iraqi officials would have had to gather and count millions of paper ballots, some from remote areas far from Baghdad.

It may not be democracy as we know it but I am sure George W Bush would prefer the Iraqi way to sweating over the scad that was piling up in the Florida counts last year !

European Championships bring back the hooligans

16 October 2002

It was sad to see the opening games of the Euro 2004 football championship spoiled by holligans and racists.

Just for a while, back in the summer, the Korea/Japan world cup made soccer look like a game that unites and excites people. In the end Japan was just too far to get too and too expensive and perhaps just too foreign for your average mentally deficient hooligan.

The violence of the 1980s has never really gone away. It lay dormant for a while but appears to be back with a vengeance. Society has not solved the problem over the last twenty years. And the "English disease" is increasingly a Euro disease.

A friend has been visiting the UK for the last week. He is liberal and open minded. Yet he reported on the "depressingly "in your face" yobbish uk culture. The country", he wrote, "is in moral decay. It is now systemic and in an unstoppable downward spiral".

The FA will as ever do sweet FA. They will say with some justification that it is for society to deal with and not soccer. But someone has to take a stand.

Conveniently the FA is hiding behind the racist chants that were directed at coloured English players by the Slovakian crowd. That this provoked the "sensitive" English fans is nonsense. The English football hooligan is not a fan of soccer. He is a frightening menace whose brutish and menacing behaviour is designed to stir up the local authorities and push them to the edge of their tolerance.

It is time to stop English supporters from traveling to games in Europe at a club or national level. Stop this all too regular embarrassment.

Week of  7 October 2002

The Bali Bomb Blast

13 October 2002

With at least 180 people killed and over 270 injured the holiday paradise of Bali has overnight turned into a living hell for visitors and residents.

Bali, where the population is primarily Hindu, has long been considered the safest and most peaceful island in Indonesia. While trouble has flared in Jakarta and other provinces tourism has continued to be at the core of the Bali economy.

A packed Saturday night discothèque in the bar and beach town of Kuta is almost too easy a target. The buildings are wooden and stone and highly flammable. Fire exits will be as rare as fire regulations. This was a very large bomb. It was very deliberately placed and timed to inflict the greatest amount of casualties possible.

For people still there the airlines are working with the local authorities to bring people home quickly if they want to leave.

Travel agencies will have to be supportive of people who need to make last minute cancellations of planned vacations.

South East Asia has long been considered a safe haven for terror groups; in the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The war on terror just  took a very alarming new direction last night and must now be recognised as a global fight against an unseen and organised terror network.

Inconsistency in Hong Kong

13 October 2002

Spot the differences in the following:

1. Ten workers use a two truck, three cars and road cones to stage an illegal and potentially dangerous blockade shutting the Cheung Tsing tunnel and closing the highway to the airport for 18 minutes.

Police take no action.

2.  Having been granted a permit for 500 demonstrators, 4,500 villagers from the new territories march to the Central Government Offices; traffic was blocked and additional police needed to manage the crowds.

No action is taken other than a letter asking the organisers in future to stick to the agreed conditions for the march.

3. A group of 30 pro-democracy demonstrators are refused a permit to march on the Central Government Office to protest.

4. 16 Falun Gong protestors are arrested and prosecuted after a demonstration outside the Beijing Liaison Office mainly for allegedly causing an obstruction.

Enforcement of Hong Kong's laws appears increasingly haphazard as authorities seek to avoid political demonstrations and scenes that might embarrass Beijing. While Hong Kong considers the additional powers the police will have when Article 23 legislation is enacted this would be a good time for wiser heads to ensure that existing rules are transparently applied.

Calling Time on the Monarchy in Canada

11 October 2002

With the Queen and Prince Philip on a ten day tour of Canada to celebrate the Golden Jubilee of her reign the Canadians have rightly been assessing her role in their nation.

Inevitably there are many people who do not have strong views either way. But those that do are quite polarised between retaining a constitutional monarchy and establishing a republic.

On balance I am with the republicans. I think the monarchy has its place in Canadian history but not in the future of a vibrant multicultural nation.

When I became a Canadian citizen in 1994 I almost choked on the citizenship oath where to take up  citizenship, I had to make a solemn statement of allegiance, not to Canada, but to a foreign person and dynasty: "I swear (or affirm) that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Second, Queen of Canada, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will faithfully observe the laws of Canada and fulfill my duties as a Canadian citizen."

This is too feudal - the queen and her subjects. Canada needs to declare itself as a truly independent country. Subservience to some other country's monarch, even if it is only ceremonial, continues to make us appear colonial.

Shortly before the Queen arrived in Canada the deputy Prime Minister, John Manley suggested that the Governor General become Canada's head of state after the Queen's reign ends. The suggestion has its merits and the debate is necessary. When the Queen dies she will be replaced by Prince Charles, the next King of Canada. It is time for Canadians to seriously consider how we feel about a foreigner as our head of state.

One hundred years ago most immigrants to Canada were form Britain. Now they are mostly from other nations and they must be bemused at the allegiance to Britain and to historical traditions. At my swearing in ceremony my neighbour was a refugee form Afghanistan, He and his family had been given the chance of a new life in Canada. He was deeply moved - but his feelings were for Canada not for a foreign monarch.

Yes, Canada needs a head of state. And the head of state needs to be apolitical. But the head of state should be a Canadian institution not a foreign one based on hereditary privilege.

It is a critical role. We need institutions that separate Canadians from Americans. Culture, language, economies... they all are becoming a homogenized blur with the massive influence of the southern neighbour. Canadians do not want to be a 51st state . The head of state must unify the Canadian people irrespective colour, religion or social strata and offer an opportunity for Canadians to unite under one common allegiance.

It is time to sever ties with the British monarchy. It is time to stand on our own feet as a country with our own proud institutions. The British and their monarchy have their rightful place in Canadian history. But it is time to move on. Queen Elizabeth should be the last King or Queen of Canada.

Singapore's self controlled media

A friend recently asked me about the English press in Singapore;

I was asked what was the difference between The Guardian or The Bangkok Post and The Straits Times. It is my friend's view that The Straits Times is quite good in terms of organisation, fonts and spaces and that compared to USA Today, it is better and easier to understand.  I was asked what it lacks to become a better paper and about journalistic standards in Singapore.

I replied as follows:

At first site - Singapore's press looks modern and democratic. Appearances are deceptive. The press and media in Singapore are strictly controlled and licensed:

Local press news coverage can appear excellent (both of local and international issues). You are often not aware of the restrictions on the media and press in Singapore by looking at newspapers or watching TV. But the censorship is there. On closer examination, it's clear that few stories exist about the local government and the political system (and no stories which directly criticise government). Controversial or "hot" political topics in the news are minimal.

Local journalists are good at basic news reporting; they generally avoid analysis. They report facts, they avoid commentary. They practice self censorship. They are good at lifestyle - arts - technology 
But that is not news - that is magazine reporting!

In 2000 the World Press Freedom Committee cited Singapore as follows:

NEW YORK (AP) - The World Press Freedom Committee on Sunday urged governments that attempt to limit the spread of information and opinion to change their policies regarding freedom of speech and the press.

The WPFC also issued a warning against governments that attempt to control Internet content. The committee specifically cited China, Russia, Singapore and Turkey, accusing them of seeking "to enforce political censorship and/or surveillance."

At its biennial meeting, the WPFC said governments seeking to limit the spread of information are not sound democracies and have a tendency toward authoritarianism.

The committee reaffirmed its conviction that "insult laws'' - which provide special protection to government authorities and official institutions - are inappropriate in countries that call themselves democracies, and urged such countries to repeal them.

The WPFC also issued a resolution, urging governments and international organizations to honor "the public right to know information held by official bodies.''

I bet this was not reported in Singapore. Censorship is as much about what is left out as it is about what is included !

It is worth also quoting the 2002 Report on Singapore by the Committee to Protect Journalists

In the run-up to November's general elections, entrenched government control of the media and regulations governing the Internet and the foreign press virtually silenced public dissent. The ruling People's Action Party's (PAP) overwhelming dominance in the media sector helped guarantee the party's supremacy: It won more than 75 percent of the vote, its biggest victory since 1980.
Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), a company closely linked to the PAP, owns all but one of the country's papers. In 2000, SPH secured licenses to operate television and radio stations, which were launched in May 2001. The only alternative to SPH is the government-owned Media Corp, which publishes a free daily newspaper, runs several television channels, and operates 12 of the country's 18 FM radio stations.

The government also tightened control over the foreign media, one of the country's only sources of independent coverage. In April, Parliament passed a bill granting the government broad power to prevent foreign broadcasters from "engaging in domestic politics."

Kevin Liew, youth leader of the opposition Singapore Democratic Party, told the International Herald Tribune that, "With the local media in the hands of the ruling party and the continued restrictions on the foreign media, the Internet is the only other avenue for the opposition to conduct its campaign activities."

But authorities promulgated regulations in 2001 limiting online speech as well. In April, the government ordered nonprofit organizations that promote press freedom and other political reforms to register as political organizations, thus prohibiting them from receiving foreign funding. These regulations affected free expression advocacy groups, such as Think Centre, Open Singapore Center, and Sintercom.

Additional rules banned non-party-affiliated political Web sites from publishing campaign materials or running election advertisements. In effect, only PAP or PAP-affiliated content was officially allowed online during the campaign. Soon after the regulations were announced, Sintercom closed, and Think Centre shut its online Speakers Corner forum in protest.

Free-lancer Robert Ho was the first person charged for violating the regulations. On November 16, Ho was arrested after posting an article on the Singaporeans for Democracy Web site that criticized four PAP leaders for violating election laws in 1997. Ho was forced to undergo a psychiatric evaluation. If convicted, he faces three years in jail.

In 2000, the government opened Speakers Corner, a Hyde Park Corner-style experiment in free expression. But by 2001, the experiment had clearly failed. Participants are required to register before speaking, the government has banned certain topics, and security officials monitor what is said. In September, local civil society activists commemorated Speakers Corner's first year in a ceremony designed to highlight the initiative's failings. At the ceremony, activist James Gomez said, "The only thing which has grown at Speaker's Corner is the grass."


The issue is that MediaCorp and Singapore Press Holdings are government owned and controlled. It really is as simple as that.

In the UK the government does not own media. Politicians declare their shareholdings to avoid conflicts of interests. Now that does not mean that the media lacks bias. The bias tends to reflect the politics of the owners/proprietors. Rupert Murdoch, through News Corporation owns The Sun and the Times and also Sky Television. Through these media he has significant scope to influence public opinion.

But the newspapers are free to write whatever they like - subject to normal libel laws managed through the judiciary.

In Singapore the government's press control is taken as a given. The Washington-based Freedom House's 2001 measure of press freedom – a survey that wasn't reported in The Straits Times – says Singapore has one of the most restricted presses in the world, ranking alongside Zimbabwe, Liberia and Iran.

Even in appearance the ST is horrible, mixed up fonts - vast amounts of advertising - the paper is hugely profitable - and will remain so because it has no competition. USA today is not a good comparison - the quality US papers are the Washington Post and the New York Times. In some ways they are also a better comparisons. They are city newspapers. They have to report international, national and local news. Just like the Straits Times. Whey they carry is opinion and criticism...positive and otherwise. They provoke, inform, challenge and entertain.

The paper is a symbol of Singapore; the newspaper and Singapore Press Holdings have like its people embraced wealth creation. This takes priority over true democracy and over true freedom of expression. And while the government looks after its people it is an acceptable trade off to most citizens.

It is a wealthy safe and comfortable city. Its a wonderful city to visit. And for many people it is a wonderful city to call home. It is liberalising. There is more freedom of expression now. But even the rate of change appears government managed.

I do think people are entitled to more credit. The best censor is ourself. We know what we want and do not want to read. We know what we want to see and listen to. We are educated enough to be firstly given a choice and then to make our own decisions.
 

Week of  16 September 2002

Ouch

22 Sept 2002

Carl Tendler of New York visited our great city of Hong Kong and sure left his calling card. In the (infamous) Sunday letters page of the SCMP he writes:

"A someone who has visited Hong Kong several times, it is obvious to me and many others that Beijing wants you to vanish. Businesses are leaving because it is less expensive to operate on the mainland, intimidation is also a factor and Beijing has its future set for Shanghai. Hong Kong is doomed and if Beijing could move all of Hong Kong's architecture and creativity to Shanghai it would.

It is a sad thing to see. Hong Kong was a truly great city created by both Chinese and Britons. My condolences."

Carl Tendler.

I guess he wont be coming back in a hurry. I wonder if he has ever been to Shanghai. Still at least he is back in New York, which WAS also a truly great city created by Chinese, Britons and many many others.....

It really would be wonderful to see Hong Kong's doubters proved wrong!

Thumbs up for School Daze

22 Sept 2002

Last week  Mr. O'Riordan expressed in the SCMP his dismay at the school uniform party at a Central nightclub. I am pleased to report that Thomas and Mary Tadger have redressed the balance; they had "a great night" and they wrote that "we - and seemingly the majority of the attendees - didn't see or feel any dark forces at work, but perhaps we were busy having too much fun to notice."

Am I getting cynical or is this just two weeks of cheap publicity for their next party !

Vanessa Mae Unplugged

21 Sept 2002

In another fine example of Hong Kong's status as a world class city Vanessa Mae's concert on 19 September in the dreadful convention center was another aural nightmare.

The Pet Shop Boys were here the week of 29 July in a concert that was largely inaudible. Some 5,000 people paid between $295 and $1,080. I was not there. Those attending will not be given refunds. And a large part of Hong Kong's music audience will join me in boycotting this awful venue.

During the first half of her concert her electric violin failed - and she had to continue with an acoustic violin. Even after an unusually long 45 minute break sound problems continued in the second half of the show.

Its not just a case of why would anyone want to shell out good (and large sums of ) money for a concert in Hong Kong. Why would any performer want to play here.

Spot the difference

20 Sept 2002

There are two countries that stand accused of developing chemical and biological weapons; that are accused of developing nuclear weapons; that are accused of knowingly starving their people; that are run by dictators; that are considered both a threat to their neighbours and to US interests in their respective regions; that support terrorist activities against the USA and the "west"; both countries are the subject of US led trade embargoes that further add to the hardship of their people.

One country is being targeted by the USA. The doctrine of pre-emption requires the US to strike Iraq and overthrow Saddam before he uses his weapons.

The other country had a visit last week from the Japanese Prime Minister. Koizumi came away with little; no apology for the kidnapping of Japanese citizens; merely an acknowledgement that it had happened and that a number of those taken were already dead.

In return Koizumi has pledged some US$10 billion in development aid.  Monitoring how this money is used will be key. Sceptics already alledge that the money will be used to further North Korea's weapons programs. But the Japanese are far cannier than that. Their money will be put to effective use or there will be no money.

I will take the Japanese policy of engagement any day. If Koizumi's visit brings the two Korea's closer. If it speeds the arrival of normal diplomatic relations between Japan and North Korea. If it opens a window to the people of North Korea. Then it is worthwhile. And the differences with the the US approach to Iraq are startling!

Week of  9 September 2002

(Please note that commentary on the first anniversary of the 9-11 attacks on the USA are on a separate page)

The endlessly entertaining letters page in Sunday's SCMP

15 Sept 2002

It constantly amazes me what some people write to the SCMP about. And the newspaper seems to save all of their most bizarre or whining letters for their Sunday edition.

Their was a classic today from Julian O'Riordan in Mid-Levels.

For your entertainment here is the letter in full:

"SHOCKED BY CLUBBER'S SCHOOL UNIFORM NIGHT

Some friends and I recently attended an'80s night called "School Daze" at a nightclub in Central. Upon my arrival, I was shocked and horrified to find this was a party where adults were encouraged to dress in school uniform, and dress like young school children.

I find this concept wholly inappropriate and sickening. We already live in a society where child pornography is readily available on the internet, trade in underage prostitution is rife in Asia, and paedophiles lurk in online chat rooms waiting to prey on innocent minors.

Our children need to be protected from this sort of sordid practice. Do we need to further encourage this sick and perverse attitude in the nightlife of Hong Kong.

Julian O'Riordan"

Well:

What was Mr. O'Riordan expecting - a night out in a central club with his homework. And if he behaves he gets a gold sticker for his chart. Either he is sad and naive; or he is taking the mickey !

 I think it may be the latter !

I wish I could still get into my school uniform.

Yes he is right - all the things he mentions are real problems in Asia. But adults dressing up to have a fun night out in a Hong Kong nightclub does not contribute to any of those issues.

Sadly it simply looks as though Mary Whitehouse has re-appeared in Hong Kong and that this city becomes less fun by the day - or by the letter !

I guess Mr. O'Riordan wont be attending the wet "t" shirt contest at Skitz Bar. Or maybe he will - so he can tell us all how outraged he was (afterwards !!!!).

New twists on Nigerian Fraud Scams

13 September 2002

I hope most people are aware of the dangers of the Nigerian Fraud Scams. Now I think you would have to be insane to ever reply to one of these letters, but people do; the RCMP reckons that in Canada alone some US$30 million has been lost to these fraud artists.

What does sadden me is that they are always associated with Nigeria. They give the country a bad name and they must do serious damage to any genuine business that is trying to raise funds or enter into any form of international trade.

Today I received an email from Zaire, formally the Belgian Congo. It opens as follows:

I am JASPER SESE SEIKO from Zaire, presently known as Democratic Republic of Congo.
I am the son of late president Mobutu Sese Seiko of Zaire, Republic of Congo. I got your contact from Chambers of Commerce and Industry here in UK. I now decided to write to you on a business which would be to our mutual benefit if you willing and can assure me of your trust and capability.
Upon the death of my father, I left the shores of my country due to pressure and insecurity directed at my family over the wealth of my late father. Due to the above circumstance, I was only able to leave my country with the sum of US $18,000,000.00 cash, which I have been able to transport with the use of a courier company to UK where I am presently based.(my family's wealth antecedence is a well known fact the would over) Hoping that you will respond to my call to assist me in investing this money, because I am totally ignorant of investment and I was in school when the unrest in my country claimed the life of my father and changed my living conditions. For your assistance and co-operation, I have decided to bequeath to you, % of the total sum involved and 5% mapped out for any miscellaneous expenses that we may incur during the process of transferring this money to your country. Moreover, it is risk free in the sense that I have taken proper care of all
the formalities regarding to this transaction.

These scams are often known as 419 scams. The term 419 comes from the section of the Nigerian criminal code outlawing fraudulent activities. It has become a part of everyday Nigerian Language. As others might say that one has cheated, or stolen, or tricked, or misrepresented, or lied, or conned, etc., a Nigerian will often just use the term "419" to cover all or some of the above acts.

This link to the Freeman Institute's warnings and catalogue of 419 scams is helpful and thorough. And if you ever get such an email or letter - read it, grin widely and bin it !

No respect at Watford; FA investigation commences.

11 September 2002

One minute's silence in honour of those who perished a year ago was to be held before every soccer match played in England last night and tonight.

It is a simple and moving gesture.

And it happened everywhere, accept at Watford.

Now Watford FC is a club I grew up with. That I followed since first seeing them play at Vicarage Road in 1970. For years Elton John was the Chairman. His money brought Graham Taylor to the club as manager (twice) and they were a remarkably successful small club. The club pioneered the family enclosure for parents and kids. They made the club and the players a part of the town.

And last night; there was a riot on the pitch before the game against local rivals Luton Town. It was not just a riot on the pitch. There were arrests in the town as well despite a massive police presence.

There is a history to Watford v Luton matches and no love lost between the so called fans. The two teams have not met competitively for 4 years. But this is only the Worthington Cup. It is used by many teams as an opportunity to give promising players first team experience. No one really cares for the tournament.

The start of the game was delayed and to the shame of all involved no attempt was made to observe the minute of silence. The club's official website fails to mention any of last night's troubles. And there is no apology. So on behalf of those of us who love soccer and who have the happiest of memories from Watford, I apologise for the lack of respect shown to all those who were bereaved on 11 September.

This tribal yob culture is frightening. It has not gone away. It is the reason why no major soccer tournament should be played in England. Why should it take a vast police presence to control people who are meant to be watching a football match?

Sadly the FA will likely do FA, beyond maybe fining both clubs. They will assume they are only responsible for what happens inside the ground. And they will express concern for the lack of police in the ground. But the FA's responsibility has to go further. The city was a fortress for this game. And people will have been scared. In 1970 when I first saw Watford I was hooked. I loved standing on the terraces. I loved the drama; the noise; the rivalry. Would I take a kid to watch a game now. Probably not. Sad.

The following is an extract from Ian Grant's match report on a Watford fan club site -

There are many times when I am glad to be in Hong Kong, even with the No 8 typhoon signal raised !

Week of  2 September 2002

Spot the evil dictator

8 September 2002

Forgive my confusion but it is not entirely clear  who the good guys and the bad guys are right now. Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf is a dictator; but he is a needed ally to the Americans. So his military coup and his removal of all democratic rights is acceptable. Strangely the Pakistan of the last fifty years has largely been a democracy friendly to the USA. I hear no outcry at the military's role in Pakistan.

Then there is Colonel Gaddafi. Now almost in the role of senior statesman. He does not even make it into the Axis of Evil list espoused by George Bush; namely Iran, Iraq and North Korea.

So what is it about Saddam Hussein? Is it that over 10 years ago George's Dad left the job unfinished? But his weapons were largely destroyed, his army left in ruins, and his country subject to continuing sanctions. There is no clear evidence to link Saddam to 11 September. Although in all likelihood the day gave him pleasure.

The danger here is that the argument that Iraq is building chemical, biological and nuclear weapons may simply be a foil to access Iraq's oil and natural gas reserves and to "fuel" the USA.

If it had not been for 11 September then in all likelihood we would not be facing imminent war. Instead cooler heads would prevail and the UN (In time and after endless haggling) would do what it is supposed to do...including arms inspections in Iraq.

But the USA now has a doctrine of pre-emption. If the USA determines that a nation (or presumable an individual or belief) is a threat to US interests or those of its allies then it has the right to act first and if necessary to act unilaterally.

This is a very dangerous path. Already international rhetoric has used this argument to aggravate India/Pakistan relations. Israel uses the argument to attack Palestinian militia and inevitably civilians. Russia uses the argument to support its attacks on Chechnya. China can use the argument to deal with militants in Xinjiang province.

Who really has the right to determine what are and are not the potential threats around the world and how they should be dealt with. Isn't that a function of the United Nations? Then lets see some real leadership from that verbose body.

Airlines - the fastest way to lose millions of dollars

5 September 2002

As a consumer the news that Dragonair and Cathay Pacific want to compete on certain routes should be very appealing. In the short term it would certainly mean lower fares. In the medium term , it would almost certainly be a disaster.

The regional aviation sector is changing. The government has opened the door by abandoning its ole old one route one airline policy. Dragonair now has rights to Taiwan in direct competition with Cathay. Cathay's response has been to apply for a share of the lucrative China market, by applying to fly to Beijing, Shanghai and Xiamen. Cathay has also indicated that they want rights to fly to Phnom Penh, Sendai, Phuket (all now flown by Dragonair) and Madras and Pusan ( to which Dragonair has rights but no flights).

While Cathay has no given right to be Hong Kong's de facto flag carrier there is no evidence that a market the size of Hong Kong can support two international carriers. Dragonair has a wonderfully profitable niche market from Hong Kong to China. Sometimes the best strategy is to stick with what you are good at. The Beijing and Shanghai markets continue to grow. For many people Dragonair is the only airline that they will fly to into China.

Dragonair has now indicated that it wants to fly to Bangkok, Manila, Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney. Lets have a look. Bangkok and Manila are primarily low yield routes; heavy on Economy and discounted fares. Hong Kong to Bangkok is already operated by Cathay, Thai, Emirates, China Airlines, Ethiopian, Finnair, Gulfair, Orient Thai and SriLankan. I think that's enough. Hong Kong to Manila is operated by Cathay, Philippine Airways and Cebu Pacific.

Tokyo and Seoul are good business and leisure routes. Landing slots at Narita and almost impossible to obtain. Tokyo is served from HKG by United, Northwest, Cathay, JAL, ANA, and JAS. You can also connect via China Airlines and fly into Haneda through Taipei.  Seoul has flights by Cathay, Thai, Korean Air and Asiana. A new entrant into these markets will likely mean more discounting.

Sydney. The kangaroo route remains one of he most sort after routes in the world. ANZ are already talking about flying from Melbourne and Sydney to Hong Kong. Richard Branson is talking about extending Virgin Blue internationally, although probably under a different brand name. This would connect to Virgin Atlantic's Hong Kong flights. And on a long haul, Dragonair does not have the product to compete with Virgin, Cathay or even Qantas.

A serious attempt by Dragonair to enter these markets will cost millions in capital and operating costs. They may, for some time, be able to subsidise these routes from their money-spinning China routes. But they may also seriously damage the airlines long term financial viability.

Lets not forget the mainland carriers as well. As part of opening up China routes for Cathay the expectation is that Beijing would require Hong Kong to permit mainland carriers to have fifth freedom rights from Hong Kong.

How many small nations/cities can support two international carriers. Canada has tried (Wardair, Canadian International, Canada 3000) ; only Air Canada survives. Ansett collapsed leaving Qantas as the dominant carrier domestically and internationally from Australia. And that has done no favours at all for the Australian consumer. Singapore splits its network between SQ and its subsidiary Silkair, which acts as the regional carrier.

So what does all this mean. For the consumer it should be good news at least for a while. More choice, more competition, lower fares. The airlines are saying that they would avoid destructive price wars. But in the end the likelihood is that one Hong Kong carrier will prevail. And then wait and see what happens to airfares !

For the moment we would all like to see Hong Kong established as the leading Asian aviation centre. That means opening up more markets, with more airlines and more flights. The challenge will be in avoiding destructive price wars.

Time out

4 September 2002

Enough is enough. I will not be renewing my Time magazine subscription which thankfully ends this month.

The "9/11 One Year Later" edition is depressingly myopic, one sided and trivial.

A balanced, global perspective would give some credibility. What should Time be concerned about?

Try:

The family survivors of over 5,000 civilians that have been bombed to death in Afghanistan.

The hundreds of prisoners that were shipped to an American concentration camp in Cuba. We are still waiting for evidence of their alleged crimes.

The more than 1,000 people of Muslim background who have 'disappeared' in America; they have not been named. No charges have been laid.

The fact that while the events of Sept 11 gave the US huge global sympathy and understanding that has been wiped away by a year of arrogant political bullying. Just when the USA needed to embrace its friends and allies it has alienated them one after another over issues such as the environment (Kyoto), the International Criminal Court, Steel tariffs.

That the next stage of the inappropriately named war on terror appears to be an attack on Iraq which no other country in the world appears to support at present and which may dramatically destabilise the middle east.

The fact that the US has been a home, a banker and a training ground for terrorism. Whether that was an active role in Nicaragua or funding the IRA. How many lives have been lost from US sponsored terrorism.

And where next for al-Qaeda? 11 September did not change the world. It was an extreme reminder of just how dangerous the world is and how little we understand it.

It may be unpatriotic to ask these questions and to do so at this time. But a true and strong democracy would be demanding answers.

The death penalty has no place in a civilized society

2 September 2002

Outlawing the death penalty is a requirement for membership of the 15-member European Union. It is only right then that the German authorities insists that  they will only pass on evidence to the USA against Zacarias Moussaoui (the alleged 20th 9/11 hijacker) if the US gives assurances that he will not face the death penalty.

It is very simple. No one has the right to take someone else's life. Full- stop.

Capital punishment is a barbarian's act. An eye for an eye is frontier justice. I hope we have evolved further than that. I hope we have a greater respect for life.

The European Communities are unanimous in this respect. Civilized nations would follow.

But tell that to the fans at Watford and Liverpool. He created more than another decade of great moments for both clubs. He left Liverpool on a free transfer in August 1997 for Newcastle and ended his playing career at Charlton.

And now he is on the celebrity chat circuit ! He will be at Delaney's Wanchai on 9 Sept and Delaney's TST on 11 September. He will answer questions and there will be an auction with proceeds to various charities. Tickets are HK$200.

And you really only want a picture of him at his best ! In Watford's colours !

I'll have to get the "Z Cars" theme ready for him !