Dubai to repay Abu Dhabi debt in 2014
30 September
2013
The EIU
Dubai, which needs to repay US$20bn to three Abu
Dhabi entities next year, will meet its obligations and is not negotiating
to refinance its debt, according to the chairman of the emirate's Supreme
Fiscal Committee, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum. However, if necessary,
Abu Dhabi would probably roll over the debt, to avoid any negative impact on
market sentiment.
The emirate, which was on the brink of a default in 2009, borrowed US$20bn
from its wealthier neighbour to shore up a troubled conglomerate, Dubai
World, and others. The debt comprised US$10bn from the Central Bank of the
UAE and US$5bn each from two state-owned banks, National Bank of Abu Dhabi
and Al Hilal Bank. The US$10bn debt is due to mature in February and the
bank debts in November 2014. In comments to reporters, Sheikh Ahmed also
said that Dubai's state-linked companies were doing well and were able to
meet their debt repayments.
Debt rises on improved sentiment
Dubai's debt, including that of government-related entities (GREs), has
continued to rise since the global financial crisis. The IMF stated in June
that the total debt of the emirate and its GREs rose by US$13bn between
March 2012 and April 2013, to US$142bn. This is equivalent to 102% of the
estimated 2012 GDP of Dubai and the UAE's poorer northern emirates. Of the
estimated US$93bn owed by GREs, US$60bn will fall due between now and 2017,
the Fund added.
The increase in GRE debt in 2012 and early 2013 reflects successful debt
restructuring, the strengthening of the UAE economy and its property sector
and ample global liquidity. These factors meant that Dubai GREs regained
access to international credit markets and sought to take advantage of
favourable borrowing conditions.
Fundamentals
Dubai's performance in 2014 will be pivotal to maintaining solid investor
sentiment. Senior government officials have said consistently that the
emirate will meet its debt obligations next year, buoyed by the UAE's wider
economic recovery. The UAE is not well served with high-frequency economic
indicators, but what indications there are regarding tourism, transport, the
property sector, the stockmarket and company results point to considerable
strength in the economy persisting in 2013. Ongoing support from high oil
prices and the UAE's appeal as a safe-haven investment location in the
region have bolstered the economy.
Rises in airport traffic and hotel occupancy contributed to a strong
performance by the tourism industry in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the first six
months of the year. Tourist arrivals in Dubai rose by 11.1% year on year to
more than 5.5m in the first half of 2013, helping to drive overall hotel
occupancy to 84.6%. The city state's main airport handled 32.6m passengers
during the period, marking an increase of 16.9% year on year. Furthermore,
the property market in Dubai sparked back into life in 2012 and has
continued to gain momentum in 2013. This has certainly benefited the
finances of many GREs.
The main risks to this ongoing rebound include a shift down in oil prices
and slowing global growth. We forecast that international oil prices will
dip next year but will remain above US$100/barrel. On balance, we expect
global GDP this year to expand by 2% at market exchange rates, down from
global growth of 2.2% in 2012. However, we expect most of the currently
suffering emerging markets to perform better in 2014, if only because the
US, the EU and Japan are poised for faster growth. This should lead to a
mild rebound in global GDP next year, to 2.7%.
More reforms needed
Dubai has been successful in restructuring GRE debt since the financial
crisis, with most major agreements in place; a final deal regarding the debt
of Dubai Holding is advanced but still pending. Progress with restructuring
certainly boosted investor sentiment in 2012. Alongside this, the UAE is
working on reforms to limit the risk of a renewed debt crisis.
The Central Bank has moved to curtail local banks' exposure to GREs,
proposing that lenders should offer no more than 100% of their capital base
to local governments and to state-linked entities. This law was announced in
April 2012, and banks were told to be in compliance by the end of September
last year. However, several banks—including leading UAE banks such as
National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Noor
Islamic Bank—said that they were unable to comply. The Central Bank has not
yet managed to finalise this rule, but it announced in mid-September that an
agreement had been reached with commercial banks and would be confirmed
before the end of 2013.
The IMF has also stressed the importance of greater transparency with regard
to the finances of GREs. The Fund acknowledged that the government had taken
some steps towards better oversight. For example, the Dubai government has
put in place a team to oversee debt issuance, and any new borrowing by GREs
needs to be approved by the Supreme Fiscal Committee. Abu Dhabi, meanwhile,
has improved its monitoring of GRE debt. Nevertheless, the IMF has urged a
more comprehensive approach to transparency and the governance of GREs,
stressing the importance of better data availability on debt and further
reforms to improve corporate governance of GREs.
Roll over?
The finances of Dubai and the emirate's GREs have benefited from the
economic rebound in 2012‑13. As a result, Dubai may now be in a position to
repay its debts to neighbouring Abu Dhabi on schedule in 2014. However, any
difficulties in meeting the due debt would play out behind closed doors, and
Abu Dhabi would probably roll over the debt if necessary, to avoid any
negative impact on market sentiment.
Tax grab or market regulation
29 September
2013
Dubai Land
Department has announced that it will double the transfer fees on property
sales, with just one week's notice of the change.
The fees will rise from 2 percent to 4 percent of the sale price for all
properties, except the first direct sale from a developer to buyer, which
will remain at 2 per cent.
The land
department argues that the intent is to curb property flipping.
But if they were
trying to control property flipping the higher tax would apply to properties
sold on within for instance a few months of the previous purchase.
Instead this
applies to all sales which makes it no more than a revenue grab to take
advantage of the recovered property market.
By law, the property transfer fee is paid equally by both buyer and seller,
but industry spokespeople say that in practice, the buyer usually ended up
paying the full amount.
The increase to 4
percent means the charge on a AED2m home would double from AED40,000 to
AED80,000.
The amount must be paid in full in cash to the Land Department and cannot be
incorporated into a mortgage.
With more than $6bn worth of property and land transferred in the year to
July, according to Dubai Land Department figures, the increased fees will
see government coffers significantly enhanced.
One way to
moderate speculation would be a scaled transfer fee. If you sell within the
first year, its 5%, after 2 years it's 3%, after three years and thereafter
it's 1%.....but this policy penalizes all the longer term investors
and owner-occupiers as well.
Cash grab. Let's
just call it what it is and not pretend it is anything else.
Why the Y in
Canada's airports?
25 September
2013
With thanks to
www.theloop.ca
"When it comes to
navigating Canadian airports, do you scratch your head and ask Y?
Unlike most airport codes that actually make sense – JFK (JFK), Boston (BOS),
Miami (MIA), Sydney (SYD) Madrid (MAD) and Singapore (SIN) – Canadian
airport codes begin with a Y. And just when you figure there's a pattern –
YOW for Ottawa, YVR for Vancouver along comes Montreal (YUL), Edmonton (YEG)
and Saskatoon (YXU). Not to mention the four U.S. airports that begin with
their own Y, – tasty Yuma (YUM) for example and the anomalies that begin
with a Z (ZBF for Bathurst, New Brunswick). Considering there are around
7,000 planes flying above North American skies each day, one would think
there's a well-planned and logical explanation for all this. One would be
wrong.
Every airport in the world has a 3-letter code that is maintained by the
International Air Transport Association (IATA). There's also the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which uses 4-letter codes,
tagging a C at the front of all Canadian airport codes, and a K for U.S.
Airports. JFK becomes KJFK, YWG becomes CYWG, and KMART becomes a place you
can still do your shopping. Airport codes evolved rather haphazardly as
flying took off (ahem) in the 1930s. Flat fields with strong winds evolved
into transportation hubs, places of work, and growing shopping malls. North
America's first airports typically had just two letter codes, usually based
on the weather station or radio transmitter where the strip was located.
Aviation officials came up with the 3-letter code, figuring it unlikely that
17,576 airports would dot the world (the number of combinations allowed with
3 letters.) Airport codes were determined by weather stations, radio
transmitters, cities, or in some cases, the name of the original fields in
which they were located (for example Chicago's O'Hare Airport code is ORD,
for Orchard Field).
Chicago’s ORD airport code is strange enough to Canada’s case to bring us
back to the Y. Why the Y? Airport codes expanded into radio codes, and radio
codes ultimately looped around, broke the internet and become airport codes
again. Why isn't Toronto called YTO? Actually it is. YTO is the airline code
for the entire region, with YTZ for Billy Bishop Airport, and YYZ the
original radio transmitter code for a village called Malton, which is where
Toronto Pearson International Airport is located today. Since Canada locked
up the Y for its radio transmitters, it also locked up the Y for its airport
codes. Tied into this somehow are radio stations. Did you know that all U.S.
stations start with either a K or a W, depending on which side of the
Mississippi they are? KWTF?
To offer a glimmer of hope, the International Air Transport Association
assured us that “any new applying airport in Canada can suggest to be
assigned any available code, they are not forced or even recommended to
select a code with the letter Y.”"
Tales from Kai Tak
25 September
2013
Listen
here.
A Radio
Documentary about landing at the old Hong Kong Airport with contributions
from pilots who flew this challenging approach on the IGS-13 making a sharp
right at the checkerboard at 500ft over the Kowloon buildings with just
seconds to line up and land on the runway often in treacherous weather
conditions.
NOTE THIS IS AUDIO
ONLY. Over 1000 hours production time went in this project which features
three flight deck landing (one in a simulator training for an engine fire on
take off. Contributors include captains David West, Dick Duxbury, Chip
Crosby, Ralph Requa, Barry Schiff, Manny Puerta, Tom Erikson, Chip Crosby,
Randy Sohn, Tim Olson, Jim Hancock, Nick Bristow, and from Hong Kong Airport
GM Tony Norman. Produced by John MacCalman and first broadcast on Radio
Clyde in 1998 with special thanks to British Airways, Northwest Airlines
(now part of Delta), Cathay Pacific and the most excellent team at Hong Kong
Air Traffic Control.
There really was
nothing like it!
American gun
use is out of control. Shouldn't the world intervene?
21 September 2013 The Observer
Last week, Starbucks asked its American customers to please not bring their
guns into the coffee shop. This is part of the company's concern about
customer safety and follows a ban in the summer on smoking within 25 feet of
a coffee shop entrance and an earlier ruling about scalding hot coffee.
After the celebrated Liebeck v McDonald's case in 1994, involving a woman
who suffered third-degree burns to her thighs, Starbucks complies with the
Specialty Coffee Association of America's recommendation that drinks should
be served at a maximum temperature of 82C.
Although it was brave of Howard Schultz, the company's chief executive, to
go even this far in a country where people are better armed and only
slightly less nervy than rebel fighters in Syria, we should note that
dealing with the risks of scalding and secondary smoke came well before
addressing the problem of people who go armed to buy a latte. There can be
no weirder order of priorities on this planet.
That's America, we say, as news of the latest massacre breaks – last week it
was the slaughter of 12 people by Aaron Alexis at Washington DC's navy yard
– and move on. But what if we no longer thought of this as just a problem
for America and, instead, viewed it as an international humanitarian crisis
– a quasi civil war, if you like, that calls for outside intervention? As
citizens of the world, perhaps we should demand an end to the unimaginable
suffering of victims and their families – the maiming and killing of
children – just as America does in every new civil conflict around the
globe.
The annual toll from firearms in the US is running at 32,000 deaths and
climbing, even though the general crime rate is on a downward path (it is
40% lower than in 1980). If this perennial slaughter doesn't qualify for
intercession by the UN and all relevant NGOs, it is hard to know what does.
To absorb the scale of the mayhem, it's worth trying to guess the death toll
of all the wars in American history since the War of Independence began in
1775, and follow that by estimating the number killed by firearms in the US
since the day that Edward Kennedy was shot in 1968 by a .22 Iver-Johnson
handgun, wielded by Sirhan Sirhan. The figures from Congressional Research
Service, plus recent statistics from icasualties.org, tell us that from the
first casualties in the battle of Lexington to recent operations in
Afghanistan, the toll is 1,171,177. By contrast, the number killed by
firearms, including suicides, since 1968, according to the Centres for
Disease Control and Prevention and the FBI, is 1,384,171.
That 212,994 more Americans lost their lives from firearms in the last 45
years than in all wars involving the US is a staggering fact, particularly
when you place it in the context of the safety-conscious, "secondary smoke"
obsessions that characterise so much of American life.
Everywhere you look in America, people are trying to make life safer. On
roads, for example, there has been a huge effort in the past 50 years to
enforce speed limits, crack down on drink/drug driving and build safety
features into highways, as well as vehicles. The result is a steadily
improving record; by 2015, forecasters predict that for first time road
deaths will be fewer than those caused by firearms (32,036 to 32,929).
Plainly, there's no equivalent effort in the area of privately owned
firearms. Indeed, most politicians do everything they can to make the
country less safe. Recently, a Democrat senator from Arkansas named Mark
Pryor ran a TV ad against the gun-control campaign funded by NY mayor
Michael Bloomberg – one of the few politicians to stand up to the NRA lobby
– explaining why he was against enhanced background checks on gun owners yet
was committed to "finding real solutions to violence".
About their own safety, Americans often have an unusual ability to hold two
utterly opposed ideas in their heads simultaneously. That can only explain
the past decade in which the fear of terror has cost the country hundreds of
billions of dollars in wars, surveillance and intelligence programmes and
homeland security. Ten years after 9/11, homeland security spending doubled
to $69bn . The total bill since the attacks is more than $649bn.
One more figure. There have been fewer than 20 terror-related deaths on
American soil since 9/11 and about 364,000 deaths caused by privately owned
firearms. If any European nation had such a record and persisted in
addressing only the first figure, while ignoring the second, you can bet
your last pound that the State Department would be warning against travel to
that country and no American would set foot in it without body armour.
But no nation sees itself as outsiders do. Half the country is sane and
rational while the other half simply doesn't grasp the inconsistencies and
historic lunacy of its position, which springs from the second amendment
right to keep and bear arms, and is derived from English common law and our
1689 Bill of Rights. We dispensed with these rights long ago, but American
gun owners cleave to them with the tenacity that previous generations fought
to continue slavery. Astonishingly, when owning a gun is not about ludicrous
macho fantasy, it is mostly seen as a matter of personal safety, like the
airbag in the new Ford pick-up or avoiding secondary smoke, despite
conclusive evidence that people become less safe as gun ownership rises.
Last week, I happened to be in New York for the 9/11 anniversary: it occurs
to me now that the city that suffered most dreadfully in the attacks and has
the greatest reason for jumpiness is also among the places where you find
most sense on the gun issue in America. New Yorkers understand that fear
breeds peril and, regardless of tragedies such as Sandy Hook and the DC
naval yard, the NRA, the gun manufacturers, conservative-inclined
politicians and parts of the media will continue to advocate a right, which,
at base, is as archaic as a witch trial.
Talking to American friends, I always sense a kind of despair that the gun
lobby is too powerful to challenge and that nothing will ever change. The
same resignation was evident in President Obama's rather lifeless reaction
to the Washington shooting last week. There is absolutely nothing he can do,
which underscores the fact that America is in a jam and that international
pressure may be one way of reducing the slaughter over the next generation.
This has reached the point where it has ceased to be a domestic issue. The
world cannot stand idly by.
Dordogne travel tips
21 September
2013
Do not even think
about coming to this region without a car.
When you do bring
your car also bring lots of changing; parking almost always requires a
payment. And the machines only take coins. And there is never anyone or any
machine to provide change.
Carrefour closes
at 7.30pm in St-Cyprien and probably elsewhere as well. And byo bags.
French food can be
depressingly over-rated. There are very few Michel Roux's.
Stick to red wine.
The French cannot
cook pasta.
The reason the
Dordogne is so green. It rains a lot.
Do not expect to
get anywhere quickly.
Forget the
balloons - Euro180 an hour per person. Ouch.
There is very
little public access to the Dordogne River - unless you are living in a
caravan.
The prettiest
Dordogne villages have the largest and ugliest carparks. Truly eyesores.
Sarlat market, on
Saturdays, seems to bring in everyone from miles around. Recommended. Though
parking is a headache.
Brantome -
severely over-rated. A large parking lot.
Domme - a nice
town to take your mistress for lunch!
The french love
roundabouts...they are everywhere.
Buying petrol/gas
on a Sunday is a nightmare - even worse if you do not have a French credit
card.
High unemployment
is explained by stupid/pointless automation.
EK to Boston
19 September
2013
At long last
Emirates has announced its newest USA route with a daily Dubai – Boston
service to commence on 10th March 2014. The Boeing 777-200LR service will
operate to the following schedule:
EK237 Dubai 0945 – Boston 1515
EK238 Boston 2255 – Dubai 1910+1
Boston will do
well and will likely upgrade to a 77W before too long.
EK to Kabul
17 September
2013
Emirates crews
will not be looking forward to the latest turnaround with the airline
announcing that it will commence a daily passenger service to Khwaja
Rawash Airport, Kabul, Afghanistan from December 4.
Despite the obvious security concerns it is worth noting that flyDubai goes
three times daily to Kabul and National Air has been operating passenger
flights there for a year.
The route will be operated by an Airbus A340-500 configured in a three cabin
configuration, offering 12 First Class, 42 Business Class and 204 Economy
Class seats.
“Emirates has identified a demand for a premium service airline offering
between Dubai and Kabul. With this new route Emirates will be able to offer
passengers travelling to and from the city excellent global connections via
Dubai, combined with the award-winning product and service the airline is
renowned for. This includes operating the only First Class cabin between
Dubai and Kabul”, said Barry Brown, Emirates’ divisional senior vice
president, Commercial Operations East.
“We expect the flight to be particularly popular with corporate business
travellers, as well as Afghan nationals returning home to visit friends and
family. It will also present a new opportunity for cargo operations to the
country, particularly for the shipment of pharmaceuticals, perishable
foodstuffs and construction materials.”
EK 640 will depart Dubai daily at 09.55 hours and arrive in Kabul at 13.15.
The return flight, EK 641 will leave Kabul at 15.30 hours and arrive back in
Dubai at 18.00.
Welcome to the
world of FZ pilots. Do your homework on this one, especially the approach
for runway 11. For me its the most demanding of airports that we fly into.
Terrain, weather, military VFR traffic everywhere. Good luck guys !
Recent transport disasters blamed on spirits
15 September -
Khaosod online - and no this is not April 1st.
"Supernatural
powers are cited as the factors behind recent high-profile accidents in
Thailand, namely the botched landing of a Thai Airways plane at Bangkok′s
main airport earlier this week.
14 people were injured during the evacuation from the Airbus A330-300 which
skid off the runway of Suvarnabhumi Airport on 9 September.
While initial investigation pointed to a malfunctioned landing gear (the
officials have not yet finished their inquiry), the Managing Director of
Thai Aiways, Mr. Sorajak Kasemsuvan, is not taking chances. He said his
company will conduct a major ceremony to appease the malevolent spirits said
to be haunting the airport.
He is quoted as saying that the ceremony will also thank the said spirits
for assisting with the successful operation to salvage the plane from the
runway.
Mr. Sorajak′s comment followed a series of coverage by Thai Rath, the
best-selling newspaper in Thailand, which gave extensive attention to the
supposed involvement of ghosts and spirits in the accident.
Previously, Thai Rath has reported that a ghost in "traditional costume"
(which strangely resembles the outfit Thai Airways flight attendants wear)
has helped evacuate the passengers from the aircraft shortly after it slid
off the runway.
The newspaper has also quoted Mr. Chotisak Asapaviriya, a former director of
Airports Authority of Thailand (AOT), as saying that he had organised a
regular prayer session to placate the vengeful spirits which reside in the
airport vicinity.
At the ceremony to unveil the airport in 2006, Mr. Chotisak told Thai Rath,
an official in charge of searching for explosive materials had broken down
into a trance, claiming that he was being possessed by a "grandfather ghost"
who demanded a shrine to be built on the airport compound. The shrine was
quickly built afterwards.
Thai Rath helpfully points out that 8 major shrines have been built around
Suvarnabhumi Airport by the staff in order to ward off evil spirits, such as
a shrine dedicated to the Naga (holy big snake in Buddhist myths) which is
presumably angered by construction of the airport on what was once a swamp
inhabited by snakes.
Other smaller shrines include a strangely named "Italian Shrine".
The newspaper cited the curses of the residing ghosts as the main reason the
construction of the airport had been delayed for decades. The more rational
Thais, however, would point to mire of corruption that has plagued the
project before the government of Thaksin Shinawatra finalised the project in
late 2005.
Dr. Smith Thammasaroj, former director of Suvarnnabhumi Airport, told Thai
Rath he was convinced of the existence of supernatural entities around the
airport even though, he admitted, he had never encountered any particular
case personally.
The scientist who once headed Thailand′s Meteorological Department said he
had invited so many psychics to conduct ceremonies and constructed so many
shrines "that I can′t keep count".
"We even had to build a condominium for the ghosts to reside," Dr. Smith
said, "Because the spirits are so many individual spirit houses won′t be
enough".
However, there has been few secular responses to the accident at
Suvarnabhumi Airport on 9 September, too. Sqn.Ldr. Sitha Tiwaree, Managing
Director AOT, said the authority has conducted an Emergency Plan Rehearsal,
in which the airport′s fire and rescue departments took part.
The accident involving the Airbus was the most severe case at the airport
since its opening 7 years ago, he said.
Sqn.Ldr. Sitha stressed that the incident will be analysed for future
adjustment of the Emergency Plan, particularly how to transport passengers
to the airport building - the procedure that received several complaints on
9 September. The rehearsal also pointed out that the airline crew was not
familiar with the runway, causing complications during the latest accident,
the director noted.
In long term, he said, the airport plans to build another substitute runway,
in order to sustain further service. The AOT board will meet on Tuesday, 17
September to discuss about the construction budget, according to Sqn.Ldr.
Sitha.
But it seems the spirits do not only roam the sky.
After a train headed from Malaysia to Bangkok′s Hua Lamphong Station
derailed in the capital city yesterday, Daily News, the second best selling
newspaper of the kingdom, reported that a certain curse might be involved.
According to Daily News, a painting at Hua Lamphong depicted a small
obstacle in the rail track, which perfectly explains the frequent
derailments - more than 15 incidents this year alone.
Even Transport Minister Chatchart Sitthipan, best known for his hands-on
approach in inspecting problems of public transports, is mulling a
paranormal hands-on solution. He has reportedly ordered the Deputy Permanent
Secretary of the Ministry to consider a plan to organise a merit-making
ceremony for the sake of his Ministry.
During the past few months, Mr. Chatchart noted, the country has suffered
from many transport accidents such as minivan crashes, train derailments,
boat crashes, and the Thai Airways incident.
"There have been more deaths than usual. Many have suggested that the
Ministry of Transport needs a large-scale merit-making ceremony" Mr.
Chatchart said."
How to hire
15 September
2013
The following is
quoted this month from the CEO of the most profitable airline in history,
Southwest Airlines. It is not rocket science. But SWA's success is built by
leaders that have left their ego's at the door; this will not happen in the
ME.
Copied from their inflight magazine:
"Our People formula is pretty simple: We hire for attitude and train for
skill. Fortunately, because of our Brand rankings, great pay and benefits,
history of no layoffs or furloughs, and our world-famous Culture, a lot of
great folks want to work at Southwest. This means our pool of potential
Employees is chock-full of the best and brightest. In fact, last year we
received 114,845 résumés and only hired 2,499 candidates. (A person has a
better chance of getting into an Ivy League university than getting hired at
Southwest.) We take great pride in hiring the right People and spend a lot
of energy on doing so.
Once onboard, we don’t focus intensely on rules or policy applications,
except those related to Safety. Instead, we give our Employees the Freedom
to be themselves, to do the right thing, and to take care of our Customers.
But we do have one rule that overrides all others, and that is The Golden
Rule—treating others as you wish to be treated. We’ve found over our 42-year
history that if we hire People with passionate Servant’s Hearts and empower
them to do what’s right, they will consistently surprise, delight, and amaze
our Customers.
By building a Company that is People-centric, we have built the most
successful and profitable airline with the best Customer Service in the
history of commercial aviation. Thanks for coming along for the ride!
Gary Kelly - Chairman, President, and CEO"
Faye Wong
announces second divorce
14 September
2013
I was saddened to
read that the wonderfully talented singer Faye Wong has announced that she
has divorced her second husband, Li Yapeng.
The disclosure on her Weibo page was reposted more than 70,000 times and
attracted almost 30,000 comments from her shocked fans within half an hour.
"Our affinity and connection as a husband and wife in this life has come to
an end," she wrote on the mainland's Twitter-like social media platform at
around 7.30pm. "I'm well. Please take care of yourself as well."
Now based in Beijing Faye Wong had married mainlander and former actor Li in
2005.
In a posting on his Weibo page later, Li, who is two years Wong's junior,
admitted that they had broken up.
Li confirmed the split in his own microblog at 8:07pm, saying: "I need a
family, but you are destined to be a legend. I miss all the best times of
the past decade. I still love you as I have always been, but I'm sorry that
letting it go is the only thing I can do now" implying that the two divorced
because of a difference of values.
He said their daughter would be taken into his custody and that there would
not be any disputes over money because the pair had remained independent in
their financial affairs.
State-owned CCTV also put the news on its Weibo page. Citing an anonymous
source said to be close to Li, it said the couple had signed a divorce
agreement in Urumqi , Xinjiang , where Li was born, and that he was on his
way back to Beijing.
In 2006 the couple
had successfully set up the Smile Angel Foundation, a charity for Chinese
children with cleft palates, after their daughter Li Yan was born with a
severe cleft lip.
They hosted their
first charity gala dinner for the foundation in Hong Kong in May. The event,
held on Li Yan's birthday, raised a total of about HK$56 million including
funds from the record-breaking sale of a painting by contemporary artist
Zeng Fanzhi for HK$30 million. A panda painting by their daughter fetched
HK$1 million.
Wong married her first husband, musician Dou Wei, in 1996 and divorced three
years later. They had a daughter, who lives with Wong.
Lies, damned lies and house price statistics
14 September
2013
Arabian Business
has been on the happy pills again reporting that Dubai house prices have
surged 21.7 percent year-on-year in the last twelve months, according to the
latest figures by London-based real estate firm Knight Frank.
It all depends
where you start from.
Arabian Business
adds that Dubai leads the annual rankings as the emirate’s housing market
has gained momentum since late 2012.
Real estate agents say residents are increasingly looking to buy their own
property as they cash in on an “under-priced” market while shunning rising
rents.
An analysis of the Land Department data by Arabian Business showed property
sales totalled $6.26bn between January and the end of July this year, up
from $3.74bn for the same period last year.
For real estate sales, the data pointed to the number of transactions
increasing from 1922, or 275 a month, last year to 3012, or 430 a month this
year.
Here is the
problem.
Say your value at
the start is 100. You then lose 60% so that your value is just 40. You then
gain 22% and your value increases to 49. Guess what. Your property is still
worth only 50% of what it was at the start.
So all this
rooftop shouting about Dubai's turnaround and its world leading increase in
property values needs to take account of just how awful the fall was before
the slow recovery began.
Get stuck in
again
13 September 2013 The Economist
Saudi rulers are once again trying to exert their influence in the region
"As the world’s richest family, the House of Saud has a geopolitical
wish-list that has—of late—been strikingly short. Its main aim is to thwart
the ambitions of Iran, a Shia Muslim republic that has for three decades
been the Sunni Muslim kingdom’s stubborn rival for regional influence. And
the Saudis want their fellow Arabs to settle down quietly and stop all this
talk of democracy and revolution.
The infectious mood of the Arab spring, along with Iran’s extension of
influence into troubled Iraq and Syria, has challenged both those policies
in recent years. Revolutionary turmoil in the region not only revealed that
many Arabs view autocracy in general, let alone Saudi-style absolute
monarchy, with disfavour. It pushed close friends of the kingdom, such as
Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, out of power, while boosting the fortunes of the
Muslim Brotherhood, a group whose pretensions to Sunni leadership,
tentacular reach and secrecy have long stirred deep Saudi suspicions. Iran’s
massive commitment of money, men and materiel to bolster Bashar Assad in
Syria has meanwhile outweighed Saudi Arabia’s hesitant backing for bickering
rebel groups. Worse yet, the Sauds’ oldest and strongest ally, America,
looked ever more keen to abdicate its regional role.
Yet things may be tilting nicely back in the Saudis’ favour. Post-uprising
messes in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen have all served to
dampen the general enthusiasm for revolution. The toppling of the Muslim
Brotherhood’s Muhammad Morsi as Egypt’s president in July was especially
gratifying. Egypt’s generals, many with close ties to the Saudis, are back
at the helm. Qatar, the small but punchy Gulf emirate that had annoyingly
backed the Brothers, has been put back in its box. And for now at least, Mr
Mubarak is out of prison. Small wonder the kingdom is showering Egypt with
aid, and loudly voices diplomatic support in the face of criticism for the
new regime’s ruthless suppression of its opponents.
Events in Syria may have also begun, in Saudi eyes, to unfold their way.
Saudi-supplied arms, which began to flow in earnest only earlier this year,
are grinding down Mr Assad’s war machine, encouraging rebels on the southern
front to push closer to Damascus. The chemical attack on rebel-held suburbs
of Damascus on August 21st may have helped the Saudi cause still more. After
months of quiet Saudi lobbying in Washington for a tougher American line, Mr
Obama is being prodded—albeit hobbled by his foes in Congress and the UN
Security Council—into taking drastic action. The Saudis still hope that Mr
Assad’s forces will be clobbered by American cruise missiles before too
long.
The turnaround has been particularly satisfying for Prince Bandar bin
Sultan, who served for two decades as ambassador to America but now runs
Saudi intelligence. Back in the old days, he played a quiet but crucial role
in America’s covert cold-war forays, providing funds, when the CIA could
not, to Afghan mujahideen, Nicaraguan Contras and the Iraqi army then
fighting Iran. Especially if Mr Obama gets his way and gives Mr Assad’s
regime a drubbing, the Saudis will be hoping that the good times will roll
again."
Divine intervention saves passengers!
13 July 2013
This is one of
those only in Thailand stories.
Remember the Thai
Airways A330 landing accident from a few days ago - the hasty paint job and
some highly questionable customer service. All that led to some appalling PR
for the airline.
How do you deflect
that PR. You create a fantastical ghost story.
The Bangkok Post
reports today that "public curiosity has been stoked by a passenger's
account suggesting divine intervention aided the emergency operation."
Apparently a passenger has claimed on a radio programme to have spotted a
woman thought to be a cabin crew member in a traditional outfit helping
evacuate people from the A330-300 aircraft, which veered off the runway on
Sunday night after arriving from China.
A traditional outfit is worn by female cabin crew during flight, but they
typically switch to the airline's skirt and blouse uniform before landing. A
THAI source said the passenger's story has bewildered airline executives and
crew, particularly those on board Flight 679.
Bewildering Thai
Air executives is not difficult at the moment.
The crew insisted none among them were wearing the traditional outfit when
the accident took place. The source said the passenger may have seen a
guardian angel who "stepped in" to help. Oh please. How about simply saying
that the passenger was delusional.
To make matters
worse an Airports of Thailand (AoT) source said some airport fire brigade
and emergency response personnel claimed to have seen a woman in traditional
dress shuffling into and out of their office, causing crackling in their
radio transmissions.
And these people
are entrusted with saving our lives in the event of an accident.
The AoT source said Suvarnabhumi has seven spirit houses at the airport to
ward off ill fortune....clearly not very successfully. The first one is Sarn
Thepparak, erected before the airport was inaugurated in 2006.
AoT former president Chotesak Artpawiriya said technical glitches and
accidents at the airport persisted despite the presence of the spirit house.
He later ordered six more to be constructed. After all that would be cheaper
than repairing the taxiways and runways!
Khun Cotesak said that he recalled an incident in which a bomb disposal
expert at the airport exhibited signs of being possessed by a deity. The man
said he was a wandering spirit called Phor Kae Ming who needed a home.
The last spirit house was constructed to be its dwelling place.
Now lets get on
with investigating what really happened.
TV's golden age
11 September
2013
Are we in a TV
golden age?
The answer is a
qualified yes. At least in terms of TV drama. As a medium television is
attracting some of the brightest and best directing talent.
The ensemble tv
dramas really become prominent in the 1970s not with Dallas and Dynasty but
with the grittiness of shows like Hill Street Blues.
The 1980s brought
us Northern Exposure - a magical mix of drama and whimsy.
But there were
only a handful of shows that anyone wanted to watch on a handful of
networks.
Now we have
independent networks producing major dramas for Showtime, HBO, Netflix, AMC.
These shows can be watched week to week or increasingly are packaged as box
sets. You can do so much more to develop plots and personalities over 10 to
20 hours of television that in a 100 minute film.
My must watch list
at the moment includes Person of Interest, Homeland, The Good Wife, True
Blood.
Season 3 of Person
of Interest is scheduled to premiere Tuesday, Sept. 24 at 10 p.m. on CBS
Homeland Series 3
will debut on Showtime in the US on 29 September
The Good Wife
Season 5 kicks off on September 29 also on CBS.
AMC produces the
hugely successful Breaking Bad and Mad Men.
Others that I
watch from time to time include House of Cards, House of Lies, Suits, Dexter
and sometimes even The Mentalist.
I have not seen
Game of Thrones but I probably should.
Meanwhile the
British brought us Luther - wonderful tv.
And there is of
course the hugely popular soap opera Downton Abbey with season four begining
on Sunday 22 September.
But we are also
moving to binge TV - watching multiple episodes back to back - online or as
a boxed set. That does not work so well for the traditional major networks
who still like to test a market with pilot episodes. House of Cards for
instance was released online to Netflix subscribers.
TV is changing -
but its drama output may be better than ever.
Lessons in
crisis management
10 September
2013
Fourteen
passengers were injured on Sunday night/Monday morning after a Thai Airways
service, TG 679, from Guangzhou, China, skidded off the runway at
Suvarnabhumi airport in Bangkok. Early reports suggest the landing gear on
the Airbus A330-300 malfunctioned.
The plane veered
off the runway, came to a halt and the captain ordered an emergency
evacuation. It is likely that most of the injuries among the 288 passengers
came as passengers left the airliner.
There are many
lessons emerging from this incident.
Traditional and
social media have focused on the fact that within hours of the incident
maintenance crews were spraying black paint over the airline logos. However,
the distinctive colour scheme of the airline remained clearly visible.
The good news is that the crash was not more serious. The pilots and cabin
crew appear to have done an effective job in halting and evacuating the
airplane.
But type Thai
Airways into google news and the story is all about hiding the logo and not
about the wellbeing of the passengers and the actions of the crew and
airport safety teams.
Thai Airways
official Smud Poom-On said that the "blurring the logo" after the accident
was a recommendation from Star Alliance - a global group of 29 airline
partners - known as the "crisis communication rule". He added that "it is
meant to protect the image of both the airline and other members of Star
Alliance.”
The trouble with that explanation is that it does not seem to be correct. A
Star Alliance spokesman has pointed out that it does not require this
logo-covering. "The [Thai Airways] official is misinformed," he said. Thai
had its story sorted out by Monday afternoon, though, and issued an official
statement to clarify that "de-identifying an aircraft after an incident" is
the company's policy, and not that of Star Alliance.
Rather an outdated
policy - and one that has unfortunately earned Thai Airways huge ridicule in
the media. After all, plenty of images are available of the crippled plane
before the black paint job was applied to its logos. And it's hardly a
secret that this is a Thai Airways service. Perhaps it just seems less
embarrassing this way.
The AWSJ covered this in more detail quoting John Bailey, the managing
director of Icon International, a communications firm that also advises
airlines on crisis management. “It is now not considered best practice in
the airline community to do this,” he said.
Bailey pointed out that passengers and airport visitors commonly have
smartphones with cameras, marking quite a different world than two decades
ago when airlines commonly masked their logos on damaged planes.
“The environment has changed, and the challenge for airlines is infinitely
more complicated. If an accident happens in a visible and populated area,
the airline can’t hope to match the speed of response of eyewitnesses and
survivors,” said Mr. Bailey, who previously worked with the International
Air Transport Association.
Andrew Herdman, the director general of Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
(AAPA) said it was up to the airlines to make a decision.
“Historically, some airlines have had a policy of masking the airline logo
following an accident rather than have the beleaguered aircraft advertise
their corporate misfortune so graphically. However, in the modern era of
social media and instantaneous sharing of images, this obviously is of
limited effectiveness,” Mr. Herdman said in an emailed response to a query
from The Wall Street Journal.
The International Air Transport Association, the industry’s trade group,
released a document on best practices on crisis communication after a
conference last year that discussed the role of social media such as Twitter
and Facebook in the November 2010 engine failure of a Qantas Airways Ltd.
Airbus A380 superjumbo jet over Batam island in Indonesia.
The IATA document advised airlines to be “proactive” in their communication
and put out facts as quickly as possible because, with passengers and
eyewitnesses firing posts on social media, they don’t have a lot of time to
gather information before issuing a formal statement.
The communications chief of another airline, who spoke on condition of
anonymity, said logo masking doesn’t go over well with today’s more savvy,
Internet-empowered public. The public expects more transparency and
responsibility, he said.
“It [logo masking] used to be standard practice to prevent damage to
reputation, but the world’s a different place now and most crisis management
people believe you’d be sending the wrong message to the public if you paint
over,” the airline spokesperson said.
However, many airlines continue with such paint jobs. Most recently an
Alitalia S.p.A. ATR-72 turboprop plane that veered off the runway in Rome in
February 2013 was covered in white paint.
The logo story has
obscured other issues arising from the incident which led to about 40
passengers complaining of poor treatment by ground staff to THAI president
Sorajak Kasemsuvan.
The comments from
passengers suggest that Thai Airways responded slowly and poorly to the
Sunday night incident.
The complaints
included:
1. No one from the airline had informed them of how the company would
reimburse their medical fees.
2. A lack of communication immediately after the accident, with passengers
saying they were left abandoned.
3. There were no
interpreters to inform passengers of the situation. Many of the passengers
were Chinese tourists.
4. Passengers were
marshalled to shuttle buses but the buses remained stationary with
passengers locked inside unattended for 20 minutes. Some in shock. Some
needing first aid.
5. Passengers were
taken from the accident scene to immigration counters, but some of the
passengers had left the aircraft without their passports, causing confusion.
6. At the
terminal, no staff members were there to receive passengers. There was not
even a glass of water to drink.
Former Bangkok
governor candidate Kosit Suvinitjit was travelling in business class on the
flight; Mr Kosit praised the efforts of the pilots and cabin crew, saying
they controlled the situation well. He also thanked the airport's emergency
response staff, including firefighters, for reaching the stricken aircraft
swiftly.
What the airline
needed to do was focus on the well-being of its passengers and crew; praise
their efforts and those of the emergency teams and ATC; and worry less about
covering up the fact that they had pranged one of their airplanes.
Lessons that will
hopefully be learned.
Kanpai Tokyo!
10 September
2013
So it is Tokyo
2020.
The city fended off not-especially-stiff competition from Madrid, whose
chances were damaged by Spain’s sickly economy, and Istanbul, whose image
was tarnished when its police spent the summer practising for the 100-metre
baton-charge.
It was not the
strongest field of candidate cities in Olympic history. But the contest
demonstrated the lengths that countries will go to for the privilege of
hosting the world’s biggest sporting bash.
All three
country's Prime Ministers were in attendance in Buenos Aires, where the
International Olympic Committee (IOC) was voting, to make the official case
for their respective countries.
Tokyo had previously bid unsuccessfully for the 2016 games; Madrid had bid
for both 2016 and 2012. Poor Istanbul has now been rejected five times. Why
are cities so keen to host the Olympics?
On the face of it, throwing the world’s biggest party—and paying for it—is
not especially appealing. The cost used to be fairly modest: London’s 1948
Olympics cost £732,268, or about £20m ($30m) in today’s money. Nowadays
hosting the games is a different business. The 2008 Beijing games, the
priciest ever, are reckoned to have cost about $40 billion. That is likely
to be eclipsed next year by the Sochi winter games, which are on course to
cost $50 billion. Tourism may help to offset the expense, but a spike in
arrivals is not guaranteed especially in Sochi!
Beijing saw a drop in hotel bookings during its Olympic summer. And the
chance to spruce up a city sometimes ends up creating eyesores instead. Some
of Greece’s costly stadiums now look as run-down as the Parthenon (and have
fewer visitors).
The main reason cities want to host the Olympics is that, perhaps against
the odds, they are wildly popular with the voters who foot the bill. The IOC
found that public support for hosting the games was around 70% in Tokyo, 76%
in Madrid and 83% in Istanbul.
Londoners,
sometimes a cynical bunch, were in favour of the 2012 games. At the end of
last year, with the crowds departed, eight out of ten said it was worth the
extraordinary cost, even as cuts to public services began to bite.
Popularity aside,
Olympic bids often have other agendas. The Beijing games were intended to
show off China’s spending and organisational power. London’s games were a
means of bringing back to life a poor part of the capital at a speed that
defied normal budgets and planning regulations. Tokyo hopes the 2020 games
can gee up Japan’s lacklustre economy.
It is a high-risk game. Rio’s hosting of the 2016 games had strong local
support during the bidding process, but has since become a focus of those
protesting against government waste (they also rage against the World Cup,
which Brazil will host next year). Politicians can be left looking
ridiculous, or worse: Mexico’s 1968 Olympics are remembered as much for the
massacre of student protesters ten days before the games as for the sporting
events themselves.
Even if it goes
well, the seven-year gap between bidding for the games and staging them
means that the politicians who shepherd the bid through are seldom around
when the fun begins. The Labour government and Labour mayor of London who
helped to win the bid for Britain were long gone by 2012. Luiz Inácio Lula
da Silva is no longer Brazil’s president (though some wonder if he might
just try to make a comeback). Shinzo Abe faces no term limits as Japan’s
prime minister, so could, in theory, still be around to open the Tokyo games
in 2020. More likely, though, someone else will be there to take the
credit—or the blame.
2020 will be
spectacular, efficient and popular. Will it bring a lasting legacy?
Unlikely. It might be a good time to leave town for a month but for those
who stay Tokyo will have a party.
The 2020
Olympic vote
7 September
2020
Olympic officials
in Buenos Aires will vote on Saturday to determine who will host the 2020
Games on 7 September 2013.
The three candidate cities are Madrid, Tokyo and Istanbul.
Spanish authorities have already started spending billions of dollars on the
construction of 35 projects including the main stadium, which will become
the new home of Athletico Madrid.
Tokyo had the
Olympics in 1964; Barcelona in 1992. Istanbul never. Spain is bankrupt;
Tokyo is difficult for the big money broadcasters from the USA and Europe.
It is also hard to gauge whether the city truly backs this bid; Istanbul’s
bid was setback by the harsh response to antigovernment protests there in
June.
Though the protests have subsided, they have left the I.O.C. delegates to
contemplate seven years ahead of time what Turkey’s political situation
might be in 2020.
Add to this the
regional uncertainty of war in neighboring Syria and a possible military
intervention there by the United States; a doping scandal that ensnared more
than 30 track and field athletes in Turkey; possible transportation
shortcomings; and spectator indifference to the recent under-20 world soccer
championships in Turkey.
Maybe that is a
long enough list to rule out Istanbul.
One thing is for
sure - the lessons from all previous Olympics is that building and hosting
costs will be far greater than budgeted and that the idea of an Olympic
legacy is very short-lived. The feel good factor that the UK enjoyed lasted
no more than a few weeks; budget cuts have decimated sports programmes and
the Olympic stadium is being handed over to West Ham United (hardly a
glamour club other than to the East End faithful) for a basement rental.
So who will it be.
I would like Istanbul; they have bid for five Olympics now and must deserve
an opportunity.
Tokyo would be a
good choice as well....everything will be on time and wonderfully efficient.
And it is likely that the IOC would like a safe choice given the continuing
construction, budget and unrest issues in Brazil (the 2016 host).
Madrid...it may
just be the favorite; it also bid for 2012 and 2016; but Spain's war chest
is not on the scale of Japan's.
So 100 delegate
will vote. And there is no clear favorite.
My guess - the IOC
will still take a risk - and award the games to Istanbul.
Re-read this in
one year
3 September
2013
The Gulf News
published the following editorial on 1 September 2013. It is as though the
deaths of over one thousand Egyptian civilians on August 14th never
happened. The editorial concludes that " Egypt is on its way to recovery and
prosperity." There is no mention of those who died; no mention of the
continuing unrest and the curfew that remains in place. No hint of the
possibility of civil war.
There is a lull in
activity in Egypt. It may be that Syria is taking priority in the news.
Meanwhile Egypt’s chief prosecutor has ordered former president Mohamed
Morsi and other Muslim Brotherhood leaders on Sunday to stand trial on
charges including inciting murder, the state news media reported. This order
could extinguish hope of any political resolution that would bring the
Brotherhood out from underground and back into the political process.
The Gulf News
states the official UAE position and we can all hope for a peaceful
resolution of the Egyptian conflict. But recovery and prosperity look a
dream rather than reality at this time.