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How to have a conversation

31 March 2012 Financial Times


Perhaps it was the opium talking, but Thomas de Quincey once wrote that an evening in the company of Samuel Coleridge was “like some great river”. The poet “swept at once into a continuous strain of dissertation, certainly the most novel, the most finely illustrated, and traversing the most spacious fields of thought, by transitions the most just and logical, that it was possible to conceive”.

Most of us have hopefully felt the unmoored elation of staying up all night talking with a friend or a lover. But Coleridge was that rare thing, a conversationalist: eloquent, witty, with a seemingly bottomless reservoir of cultural knowledge. Nor was he the only one back then who could claim his company was a performance art. David Hume once engaged in so much raillery at a dinner party he left Jean-Jacques Rousseau clinging to a table leg.

What makes a good conversationalist has changed little over the years. The basics remain the same as when Cicero became the first scholar to write down some rules, which were summarised in 2006 by The Economist: “Speak clearly; speak easily but not too much, especially when others want their turn; do not interrupt; be courteous; deal seriously with serious matters and gracefully with lighter ones; never criticise people behind their backs; stick to subjects of general interest; do not talk about yourself; and, above all, never lose your temper.” But Cicero was lucky: he never went on a first date with someone more interested in their iPhone than his company.

And so I found myself one cold Tuesday evening in February talking to complete strangers, nibbling on vegetable quiche and sipping blackcurrant cordial. I had enrolled in The School of Life, an academy of “self-help” on Bloomsbury’s Marchmont Street, co-founded by philosopher Alain de Botton. For about £30 per session, students can take classes with resident “fellows” of the school on subjects such as “How to fill the God-shaped hole” or “How to make love last”. Tuesday’s topic was “How to have a conversation”.

I had arrived about 20 minutes early but the rest of the class was already there, talking to each other in the school shop that served that evening as a reception room. On the walls were shelves stocking manuals for how to be a better person. I felt like I was in Richard Curtis’s London: diverse, sincere and hip. I overheard an American accent.

Another pupil shuffled over and kindly invited me into her circle. A freelance television producer in her early forties, she was wearing a blue puffer dress covered in images of stars and planets. She was finding it hard to have meaningful relationships. Technology was partly to blame: “Sometimes you feel the BlackBerry is like a third person,” she said. This was a generational issue, too. Her nieces and nephews barely looked up from their gadgets when she entered a room. Another new acquaintance agreed, and described how Google had blocked off avenues of conversation with her boyfriend. “Before we would argue about this or that, but now we just look it up on Wikipedia,” she said.

Worries about the effect of technology on conversation are not new; George Orwell bemoaned houses having a radio in every room. And this was no class of Luddites. Everyone said they were on Facebook and several were avid tweeters.

However, there was unease about how email, instant messaging and texting had crept into the space formerly occupied by conversation. What was the point, asked a young man, of asking how someone’s day was when you’ve been emailing them from the office?

My classmates also spoke of more personal reasons for their attendance. An IT worker in her fifties had found that her conversations with her husband “meandered” and wanted to learn ways to become a better partner. A man in his late twenties, who had bought his girlfriend an annual pass to the school as a Christmas gift, said he wanted to have fewer rows. Two other classmates later mentioned they were trying to help someone overcome bereavement.

Listening to these stories, I felt slightly disappointed. My idea of a good conversationalist was an erudite entertainer. I had ambitions of learning how to host a good table. I had imagined finding out how to emulate Christopher Hitchens, quoting Yeats and quaffing scotch. But none of my new friends said they wanted to be a raconteur in the Coleridge or the Hitchens mould. Instead, there was a genuine, quiet determination to learn how to be better friends and better lovers. And to have a bit of fun on a Tuesday night. We were Boswells, not Johnsons.

The basement classroom looked as if an avant-garde theatre company had designed a corporate training room. I descended the 14 steps of the white staircase that formed the back wall. In the middle of the room, two elliptical rows of 15 spindly chairs poked into a plush aubergine carpet. They faced a white wall that had been attacked by black paint, which had left behind a monochromatic mural: countryside, trees, bookshelves, paintings, the cover of David Bowie’s Aladdin Sane and a racing bike. A blood-orange velvet curtain covered the wall to the class’s left; on the right, the mural made way for a pantry gently warmed by magnolia-coloured walls.

Our teacher was Cathy Haynes, an elegant woman wearing a Rothko painting of a dress, all scarlet block and magenta stripe, who surprised the class when she said she was approaching 40. She was a “fellow” at the school. Haynes flicked to the first slide in her PowerPoint presentation and we sat attentively as she talked about how the nature of conversation had changed over the past 300 years.

The Enlightenment was the age of conversation, when ladies and gentlemen in Scottish pubs, English dining rooms and French salons could become famous through eloquence alone. In an age of humours – the idea that bodily fluids determined character – conversation was seen as a corrective to a melancholic temperament.

A similar view continued to be held throughout the 19th century (we were told to think of how Elizabeth’s incessant chit-chat finally cures the aloof sadness of Mr Darcy) but with the publication in 1936 of Dale Carnegie’s How to Win Friends and Influence People, conversation became a more manipulative pursuit, according to Haynes. “Be a good listener” and “encourage others to talk about themselves” made up item four on Carnegie’s list of six ways to make people like you.

Carnegie was said to set the tone for conversation in the 20th century. I happen to have a copy of Reader’s Digest’s How to Write and Speak Better from 1991. The cold war may have averted nuclear meltdown but it was radioactive to small talk, according to the Digest: “People will converse happily about the weighty matters of the day, such as what is happening in Moscow and Washington ... but discussing the weather with a stranger is beyond them!” the book exclaims. These days are not so different, though we are more distracted and more open about our feelings, Haynes said.

Thus contextualised, we were told to break off into groups of two and answer the question “Which three words describe your conversations with A. Friends, B. Family and C. Colleagues?” My partner said “banter”, “sarcastic” and “sporadic” were the words he would use to describe all three types of conversation. His social circle had been the same since university; self-referential stories and in-jokes had accumulated, making casual talk easy but shutting off more emotional discussions. I was about to share my three words, but then it was snack time.

After 10 minutes in the pantry with cordial, lemon cake and more quiche, we retook our seats. Haynes continued her PowerPoint presentation, asking us to reflect on the meaning of a René Magritte painting, a picture of a Welsh miner-cum-opera singer, Monty Python’s argument sketch (“Is this the right room for an argument?”; “I told you once”; “No you haven’t”; “Yes I have”), the Danish political drama Borgen and a book called Passionate Marriage: Keeping Love & Intimacy Alive in Committed Relationships, by the presumably happy David Schnarch, PhD.

All of these examples were meant to encourage us to stop seeing conversations as a means to an end, and to avoid stereotyping the other person. And once we had done all that, we had reached the final part of the class. It was time to learn the “six ways to have a better conversation”. These, according to the school, are: 1. Be curious about others; 2. Take off your mask; 3. Empathise with others; 4. Get behind the job title; 5. Use adventurous openings; 6. Have courage.

Again, there were examples to go along with each instruction. Haynes told us of a man that shared his bubble blower with fellow passengers on the New York subway.

In our groups we were asked to come up with ideas for unusual openings. A man in his early twenties who joked that he had thought of this before, as a chat-up line, suggested: “Tell me something I want to know.” A more challenging opener came from another group member: “If you were coming to the end of your life, what would you have wanted to have done that you hadn’t?” Someone in a different group had the most popular suggestion: explaining how you felt about something and asking your companion what they thought.

After this enjoyable burst of role play, Haynes put up a slide that said: “What conversation are you not having?” and the class was over. She said there was a pub across the road if anyone wanted to continue talking. I brushed the crumbs off my lap and retrieved my coat from the pantry. I watched my fellow graduates gather their belongings and climb the stairs; they left alone or accompanied by the people they had brought along. I didn’t hear much conversation now that the class structure had been dismantled. It was as if a permission-to-speak slip had to be returned at the door.

Despite our excellent teacher, I suspect the class was too abstract to be useful. Nearly three-quarters of the session was spent listening to theories of conversation. Genuine discussions were stopped in mid-flow, with the class asked to return its attention to the presentation. Frustration grew. Perhaps all this intellectualising reflected the school’s keenness to avoid a US-style “self-help” model, complete with charlatans peddling snake oil for the soul. Perhaps Brits would find a more direct approach too cheesy.

But I suspect my classmates were after that most basic thing, human connection. Whatever it was – technology, break-up, bereavement – that made them attend, all wanted stronger relationships. They just weren’t sure how. It would be sad if we needed to dress that up in an intellectual costume. Sad and unhelpful. Nowhere in Cicero’s rules does it say good conversation requires a mastery of literature.

For I had misjudged the evening, too. I was wrong to think of conversation primarily as a performance art, mastered by the likes of Coleridge and Hitchens. Indeed, conversation needn’t be anything. It needn’t have a purpose. The very act of talking and listening and learning is what my classmates sought. It’s what Ian McEwan said Hitchens wanted in his final days. And that desire is as pure and right as any Coleridge poem.

John McDermott is the FT’s executive comment editor

Myanmar’s Newest Challenge: Hungry Journos

30 March 2012 Wall Street Journal

For years the country’s secretive military regime refused to let in most foreign reporters, leaving the Western world’s scribes and TV personalities to seek entry posing as tourists or by other means. Those who succeeded tended to skulk around trying to look inconspicuous, while bouncing around from hotel to hotel to avoid detection. The more imaginative among them pretended to be antique dealers or “consultants” of various stripes.

So it has come as quite a shock to many residents – and journalists – that Myanmar’s commercial capital of Yangon is now crawling with nosy reporters. They can be seen prowling the streets with big, bulky cameras and fuzzy microphones ahead of Sunday’s crucial parliamentary by-election that will be contested by none other than dissident Aung San Suu Kyi.

A planeload of the reporters descended upon Yangon Thursday, the day when most officially approved journalist visas became valid. They were issued laminated press badges upon their arrival. Since journalists often move in packs, many of them proceeded quickly to the headquarters of Ms. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, where camera-ready dissidents were gathering. A few of the most intrepid reporters disappeared in search of “visuals,” or camera footage of election rallies. There weren’t many.

“I never thought I’d see the day when journalists would be walking around wearing badges” in Myanmar, one of the reporters said as he hung about outside of the NLD headquarters.

On Friday, reporters moved on to Ms. Suu Kyi’s residence, where the famed democracy leader was planning to hold a press conference. It was unclear how the journalists would occupy themselves on Saturday, the day before the big vote, though Ms. Suu Kyi’s followers were expected to organize other events.

Most of the journalists on hand were at least happy to see the country changing after so many years. That meant it was possible to lounge freely sipping espresso in the spacious lobby of the Traders Hotel, a main business hotel in the center of Yangon, without worrying about government spies or wiretaps in the plants, as were believed to be common in the old days. The lounge’s wifi service meant many journalists were even able to communicate with their editors by email, though that was an annoyance to some.

It also meant they could demand a little bit better service, since staff were thrilled to see reporters from the likes of CNN, BBC and other outlets in their midst. Certainly the appearance of more foreign reporters represents another important step forward for Myanmar, which over the past year has released hundreds of political prisoners, eased local media restrictions, and pursued a number of economic reforms to open the country to more foreign investment. Getting more complete and accurate information about the country’s changes should help educate the outside world about the changes in one of Southeast Asia’s most fascinating countries.

But locals shouldn’t worry – the journalists likely won’t have enough time to make a nuisance of themselves, as they so often do in other countries. Official visas to cover the election expire on Tuesday.

Thailand: Don’t Block Accountability for Political Violence

30 March 2012 Human Rights Watch

The Thai government should undertake a transparent and impartial investigation into violence and abuses by all sides in the 2010 political upheavals and hold accountable all those responsible, Human Rights Watch said today. Serious investigations and appropriate prosecutions are important for promoting lasting reconciliation.

At least 90 people died and more than 2,000 were wounded during the 2010 political confrontations between the previous government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protesters, known as “Red Shirts,” backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Arson attacks in and outside Bangkok also caused billions of dollars in damage.

“The victims of the violence in 2010 deserve justice and accountability, not another round of political whitewash,” said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “A parliamentary proposal now under debate would let people with influence get away with grievous crimes at the expense of the victims.”

Parliamentary support for the proposal undermines hopes for justice, particularly among the many rank-and-file members of the Red Shirts and supporters of the current ruling Pheu Thai Party who were the main victims of the violence, Human Rights Watch said.

On March 27, 2012, the parliamentary Committee on National Reconciliation presented to a joint session of the House of Representatives and the Senate a proposal submitted by the King Prajadhipok’s Institute (KPI). The KPI recommended releasing the fact-finding report of the government-appointed Truth for Reconciliation Commission (TRCT) “when the time and conditions are suitable” and with the names of those responsible for violence removed. The report also proposed a broad amnesty for leaders and supporters of all political movements, politicians, government officials, and members of the security forces involved in the violence.

The Pheu Thai Party, together with its coalition partners and a majority of senators, voted in favor of a motion to place the report on the parliamentary agenda for urgent consideration on April 4 and 5. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung also said a reconciliation bill based on similar principles will soon be submitted to the parliament by the party and its coalition partners.

While welcoming Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s decision to provide financial reparation to those affected by political violence, victims from all sides told Human Rights Watch that they were disappointed that the actions by the parliament would result in keeping the truth buried and block accountability.

Human Rights Watch’s 2010 report “Descent Into Chaos” documented deaths and injuries resulting from excessive and unnecessary use of lethal force by the security forces and attacks by “Black Shirts,” the armed elements within the UDD. Since the new government took office in August 2011, the focus of criminal investigations has been entirely on the cases in which soldiers were implicated.

To date, the police have found evidence that soldiers were responsible for 18 deaths of civilians, including Red Shirts protesters, medical volunteers, and news reporters. At the same time, despite clear evidence to the contrary, the government claims that there were no armed elements within the UDD.

Impunity has very deep roots in Thailand. For decades, the term “reconciliation” has been used in Thailand not to bring communities together, but to protect powerful politicians and military leaders. It has been a convenient device for suppressing the truth and denying justice to victims of human rights abuses, Human Rights Watch said.

In the name of “reconciliation” there were no independent investigations into the crackdowns on students and pro-democracy protesters in 1973 and 1976, which led to the deaths of over 100 people. The complete findings of a government inquiry into the bloody 1992 repression of protesters calling for an end to military rule have never been released. In each of these cases, in the name of “reconciliation,” amnesty was given to those responsible for the violence.

To end the cycle of impunity in Thailand, Prime Minister Yingluck and her government should promptly bring charges against those responsible for crimes committed during the 2010 violence, whatever their political affiliation or official position in the military or government, Human Rights Watch said. No amnesty should be given for serious human rights abuses.

“Thai people should no longer suffer in silence, while generals and politicians make peace with each other in the interests of escaping accountability for criminal conduct,” Adams said.

From Prisoner to law-maker

30 March 2012 - Reuters

Aung San Suu Kyi, the long-time standard-bearer for democracy in Myanmar, is taking a leap of faith in running for parliament on Sunday, opting to enter a political system crafted and run by the soldiers who kept her locked up for a total of 15 years.

Her party's participation in this weekend's by-elections marks a change of heart for the Nobel Peace Prize winner who repeatedly rebuffed the military's attempts to bring her into a political apparatus in which it dictated the terms.

But since a general election in November 2010, followed by Suu Kyi's release from house arrest the same month, the pace of change in the former Burma under a nominally civilian government has been staggering, enough to convince her to compromise with the apparently reform-minded ex-generals now in charge.

Some Burmese fear it is a deal with the devil that will serve mainly to endorse a military-dominated legislature.

Suu Kyi is keeping an open mind. "Some are a little bit too optimistic about the situation. We are cautiously optimistic. We are at the beginning of a road," the 66-year-old Suu Kyi said last month. "Many people are beginning to say that the democratization process here is irreversible. It's not so."

There is little doubt that without her National League for Democracy (NLD) party's participation, Sunday's by-elections for 45 seats - just 7 percent of the elected seats in a legislature dominated by the military - would have barely registered on the global news agenda.

Instead, the polls have captured the world's imagination and, if they are deemed free and fair, could persuade the West to start to lift economic sanctions imposed under the junta.

It was the Oxford-educated Suu Kyi's steely determination in confronting the authoritarian generals that kept her country in the spotlight during its isolation, winning the hearts of her people and giving her a crucial role in the West's targeted policies to squeeze Myanmar's junta.

Suu Kyi was living in Britain but returned to her family home in April 1988 to care for her ailing mother just as resentment of junta rule boiled over into nationwide protests.

As the daughter of the General Aung San, Myanmar's assassinated independence hero, Suu Kyi was persuaded to enter politics, giving a rousing speech to hundreds of thousands of people near Yangon's Shwedagon Pagoda that catapulted her to the forefront of the fight against dictatorship.

"I could not, as my father's daughter, remain indifferent to all that was going on," Suu Kyi told the crowd in August 1988.

The military crushed the uprising the following month. Thousands were killed and imprisoned. Paying the price for her popular appeal, Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest on July 19, 1989, and remained there for six years.

Even without her, the NLD overwhelmingly won an election in 1990 for an assembly to draft a new constitution, trouncing the military's proxy party. The junta simply refused to allow the assembly to convene.

The NLD continued to reject the military's demand for a leading role in politics. The top generals refused to hold dialogue with Suu Kyi and questioned her patriotism by calling her by her British married name, Mrs Michael Aris.

Even in her brief periods of freedom after 1989, she never left Myanmar, afraid that the military would not let back in. For that reason she was unable to be with Aris, an Oxford academic, when he was diagnosed with prostate cancer and died in Britain in 1999.

Their love story has been played out on the big screen, with Malaysian star Michelle Yeoh playing Suu Kyi in a 2011 film "The Lady", as she is affectionately known in Myanmar.

A final stint of house arrest - after she was found guilty of breaching an obsolete security law when an American intruder swam to her home and stayed for two nights - kept her out of the 2010 election, which the NLD boycotted and a military-backed won easily.

Insiders say the NLD was split on whether to run but Suu Kyi said she personally "would not dream" of taking part, which decided the matter.

Upon her release on November 13, 2010, thousands greeted her amid jubilation in Yangon.

The election held just six days earlier had promised little but, against all odds, the civilian administration under President Thein Sein has released more than 600 political prisoners, reached ceasefires with ethnic militias and begun to overhaul the economy.

Suu Kyi and Thein Sein, a softly spoken former junta general, have found some mutual understanding: she has called him "honest" and "sincere" and in November she accepted his appeal for the NLD to take part in the by-elections.

It will not be plain sailing. The campaign trail has left Suu Kyi suffering from sickness and exhaustion and the NLD has alleged irregularities in the run-up to the ballot.

Suu Kyi has made no secret of the fact she wants to change a constitution that enshrines the military's role in politics.

"There are certain laws which are obstacles to the freedom of the people," she said during a rally. "We will strive to abolish these laws within the framework of the parliament."

That puts her on a collision course with hardliners and an armed forces commander who just this week vowed to protect the military's place in the corridors of power.

Blue Rodeo Day in Ottawa

29 March 2012

Ottawa, the Canadian capital, is declaring Friday, March 30, "Blue Rodeo Day" in recognition of the iconic Canadian band's impending induction into the Canadian Music Hall of Fame.

Known for hits like "Lost Together" and "Diamond Mine," the veteran Toronto country rockers—as in, they've been churning out music since 1984—will be inducted into the hall as part of the Juno Awards ceremonies taking place April 1 at Scotiabank Place.

So what does "Blue Rodeo Day" involve? Nothing too exciting; according to the city's announcement, the band will be invited to City Hall where Mayor Jim Watson will be presenting them with a "unique gift." Sadly there is not a communal rendition of Lost Together!

Blue Rodeo will then be inducted into Canada's Rock and Roll Hall of Fame during the Juno Awards this Sunday (April 1). "Taking your place with all those other Canadian artists that we know and love, it's a unique prize," says Jim Cuddy.

It's joining the ranks of legends like singer-songwriter Gordon Lightfoot that has Blue Rodeo's leader so pleased.

"He represents the real icon of Canadian music. We love his music, who he is and how he operates and represents Canada. So taking our place next to him is exciting."

Blue Rodeo -- who are also marking this year with the silver anniversary (yep 25 years !) of their debut, Outskirts -- will take the stage in Ottawa during the televised Juno Award ceremony to perform a number with another national treasure, Sarah McLachlan.

"Having Sarah with us is very special because she came and did 5 Days in July and that was a seminal record for us, it really changed our band," says Cuddy. "So we're glad she's going to do a song with us, a song that will be a real celebration."

The row over leaving DXB

28 March 2012

So the big press announcement in Dubai earlier this week was that Dubai World Central, the emirate's second airport, would begin passenger operations in early 2013 with budget airline FlyDubai. This was reported in Gulf News and attributed to Mohsen Ahmad, DWC's director of operation development said.

The passenger terminal would cater to low-cost carriers, while Emirates SkyCargo would also move to the new facility, Ahmad said in an interview in Dubai on Tuesday.

But then what happened. Denials all around. And the Gulf news pulled the original story from their web site.

Now Flydubai and civil aviation officials have denied that they will be moving to DWC by 2013.

“Flydubai does not have any plans to move operations to Dubai World Central by early 2013. We are happy with our current home at Dubai Terminal 2, which is convenient for passengers while offering us operational efficiency,” a Flydubai spokesperson said in an email to Gulf News.

Paul Griffiths, chief executive of Dubai Airports, confirmed that there are no plans for the relocation of Flydubai to DWC airport from Dubai International Airport at this stage. “Flydubai is an important customer in Dubai Airpots. We are expanding Terminal 2 and work is underway to accommodate the expansion of Flydubai,” he said

So what on earth is going on.

Two closely connected companies; with a common owner, cannot get their story agreed. There has to be huge pressure on Flydubai to move and to free up departure and arrival slots at peak times for Emirates. There is also a clear need create a minimum amount of business at DWC to enourage other airlines to move.

But Flydubai clearly does not want to move and sees much of its business arising from acting as a feeder from secondary regional/GCC airports into Emirates global network.

It is a mess. And I imagine Mr. Ahmad will be discouraged from talking directly to the media in future.

Hong Kong court overturns landmark ruling on maids

28 March 2012

A landmark ruling that would have let foreign maids gain permanent residency in Hong Kong was overturned on appeal Wednesday in the latest twist for a case that has divided the city.

A three-member panel of High Court judges overturned a September lower court ruling that would have allowed a Filipino maid to apply to settle permanently in the southern Chinese city after living here at least seven years, as other foreign residents can.

They unanimously rejected arguments by the maid's lawyers that an immigration provision barring domestic workers from permanent residency was unconstitutional.

The case has split the city, home to nearly 300,000 maids from mainly Southeast Asian countries. Some argue that barring maids from applying for residency amounts to ethnic discrimination. But other groups have raised fears that the case would result in a massive influx of maids' family members arriving in Hong Kong, straining the densely populated city's social services and health and education systems. Supporters of the maids say those fears are overblown.

Hong Kong is a special administrative region of China and permanent residency is the closest thing it has to citizenship. Those who have it can vote and work without needing a visa.

Evangeline Banao Vallejos, a Filipino woman who has worked as a maid in Hong Kong since 1986, launched the case after her bid for permanent residency was rejected.

Government lawyers argued in their appeal that the September ruling was wrong because it placed limits on lawmakers' ability to decide who is eligible to permanently settle in Hong Kong.

The judges in the High Court's Court of Appeal agreed with the government's arguments.

"A foreign domestic helper's stay in Hong Kong is for a very special, limited purpose," which is to do a job that cannot be filled by local workers, High Court Chief Justice Andrew Cheung said in the panel's written ruling.

"Hence, their stays in Hong Kong are highly regulated so as to ensure that they are here to fulfill the special, limited purpose for which they have been allowed to come here in the first place, and no more."

The case could still go to Hong Kong's top court, the Court of Final Appeal.

By the end of 2010, 117,000 foreign maids had been in Hong Kong for more than seven years, the September ruling said, citing government figures.

Many middle-class families in Hong Kong employ maids to do household chores and look after children for a minimum wage of about $450 a month and room and board.

"Hello Tomorrow"

27 March 2012

So this is the new Emirates tagline - and advertising campaign. I don't like it and the trouble is I like it less every day!

The new brand platform, led by a global multimedia marketing campaign carrying a “Hello Tomorrow” strapline, aims to position the airline as the “enabler of global connectivity and meaningful experiences”. Yawn. The use of over cliche-ed words does not help.

Emirates wants to evolve its brand from a travel / airline brand to a global lifestyle brand. Not a good start. Emirates is an airline. Emirates has partnered with ad agency "Strawberry Frog" and will launch promotions it feels will represent the spirit of Tomorrow – Tomorrow Brings Us Closer to; New People, New Experiences, New Styles, New Friends.

The airline is also targeting a younger audience, launching its official facebook page at the same time.

Emirates is appealing to a group of global individuals they call ‘globalistas’. Another awful word. Globalistas represent individuals who are looking and living for new experiences. They are well traveled, or have ambitions to join the ranks of the well-traveled. The ‘globalista’ is not defined by typical demographic statistics but by the places they have visited and the experiences they have shared.
The carrier says “globalistas” also represent its global 45,000-strong workforce.

Has Emirates invented something that does not really exist. Are there Globalistas as defined by the airline and in significant numbers?

Sure we would all like to just travel the blue skies, but don't people have to work long hard hours to earn the money to pay Emirates to fly us there? Who is Emirates flying; business people whose tickets are paid by their company. A few of the rich and famous who can afford a first class shower. But the majority of passengers - 427 of them in an A380 for instance - are traveling on their vacation or to see relatives/family. They want to get safely from A to B with the minimum of fuss....and I suspect most of them have no interest in being known as a globalista. Are there globalistas in Newcastle or Glasgow - not just a bunch of people drinking the bar dry before they arrive.

Your economy class globlista meanwhile will enjoy bone crunching 10 abreast, 17 inch wide seats in the economy class or near obsolete seats and entertainment in the airlines dated A330 and A340 products.

Emirates also hopes the “Hello Tomorrow” positioning will spark a “global movement”, encouraging people from different communities to join together and make a positive impact on society, rather than just purely serving as a series of adverts for the brand.

Again, horribly pretentious - this is an airline - not a global political or humanitarian movement. Live Aid united the world; Emirates just flies people around it.

Sir Maurice Flanagan, vice chairman of Emirates Airline and Group, allegedly said that “Emirates is not just offering a way to connect people from point A to point B but is the catalyst to connect people’s hopes, dreams and aspirations.” I assume that the press release was written by the agency.

Emirates is predicted by Boston Consulting Group to become the world’s largest airline by capacity by 2015, overtaking rivals such as Delta, United Airlines and American Airlines.

Another RAK based budget carrier

26 March 2012

MMA Group, which appears to be a Pakistan based finance company, has advertised its plans to launch a budget airline in May from Ras Al Khaimah, UAE, with inaugural flight to Karachi.

MMA Airline's first flight will take off from Ras Al Khaimah to Karachi between May 1 to 15. The airline plans 10 flights a week to Karachi. The airline's CEO is a 26-year-old Pakistani businessman from Abbottabad, Malek Naureed Awan.

Awan told Gulf News that MMA Airline has been registered with the Ras Al Khaimah Free Zone and had also received an Air Operators Certificate [from the General Civil Aviation Authority GCAA] on March 14.

The airline plans to launch flights from Ras Al Khaimah International Airport to Karachi and Lahore initially and then add destinations in India and other countries when it secures traffic rights.

"We have already acquired two Airbus A320s to start flights. Two Boeing 777-300s are expected to join the fleet when we plan to add more destinations, such as Mumbai after traffic rights are granted," Awan said.

777s flying full from RAK - this seems very unlikely. The airline says that it will fly from Dubai after 5-6 months time when it has four aircraft. 

The UAE already has five state-owned airlines owned by the governments of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah. The country has, so far, not allowed any private airline to operate scheduled commercial flights.

However, a number of private companies operate freighters and charter flights, including business jet operations such as Royal Jet, ExecuJet and EliteJet.

This will be the first private commercial airline to operate from the UAE.

MMA group is one of the world's leading online forex trading brokers, with over 100,000 registered customers worldwide and volumes of more than $20 billion a month. Its business interests include a bank, online forex trading, online radio, social networking site ‘Konnects’, heavy machinery and advertisement.

They had better fix their web site quickly - www.mmaairline.com - it boasts a picture of a LOT Poland 787 and this bizarre script : "Welcome aboard MMA Airlines, where you are prefab to reason similar an worthy impermanent and not just a passenger. At MMA Airlines, a flight is not a travel between two airports but a journey where you can enjoy the elite services of MMA...As our prestigious traveler you can live MMA Airlines in tierce unequalled classes of delivery."

All in all - very ambitions - but not much substance.

The A380 and the Aviation Engineering Dilemma

26 March 2012 - Spiegel Online

"To reduce fuel consumption, Airbus used extremely lightweight materials in its flagship A380. Now cracks have appeared in the wings, and repairs will cost the company hundreds of millions of euros. The problem highlights the engineering dilemma caused by the industry drive for fuel efficiency."

"The short, wiry engineer scribbles the names of complicated components onto a pad of paper. He cheerfully explains how they work. The warm spring wind of southern France is blowing through the window. But the floral Advent arrangement on the sideboard behind him is gathering dust. The engineer, a Scotsman, has been so busy since Christmas that he hasn't had time to clean up the conference room.

In the middle of the winter vacation period, his technicians alerted him that they had found cracks in the wing of an aircraft -- not just any aircraft, but the A380 superjumbo, European aircraft maker Airbus's flagship model. At that moment Tom Williams, the executive vice president of programs at Toulouse-based Airbus, realized that his holiday was over.

Since then, he has been pushing his engineers to figure out how the cracks could have developed and how they can be rectified. But the real question is: Whose fault is it? "Ultimately, I'm responsible for this," says Williams, 59, as he twists his cufflinks, which feature an engraved horse's head.

His boss Tom Enders was furious. "We screwed that up," the future CEO of Airbus parent EADS said at the Singapore Airshow in February. But it would be easy to assign most of the blame for the wing debacle to Tom Williams. More than 10 years ago, the Scotsman took over a team of 900 people tasked with developing the innovative wings for the world's largest passenger plane. Now Williams has become the victim of a development that makes the construction of airplanes, especially such large ones, a hard-to-predict economic adventure, as airlines are demanding that aircraft manufacturers produce increasingly fuel-efficient planes. This creates a dilemma for engineers, especially with the A380, because they were also expected to design the giant new Airbus to be even bigger than the Boeing 747 jumbo jet.

The laws of physics also apply to experts in aerodynamics, engine engineers and materials scientists at Airbus. When an aircraft becomes bigger and heavier, the size of the turbines and wings also increase, which in turn increases weight and fuel consumption. On the other hand, the European megaliner was also required to be 20 percent more efficient than the competing Boeing 747. This was almost impossible to achieve, given that the giant plane was already substantially overweight before it even left the factory.

As a result, Williams and his creative engineers were told to subject the A380 to a radical diet. They used innovative composite material and extremely lightweight aluminum alloys, even for important parts of the wings. But now the results of this effort to economize are coming home to roost, as hairline cracks, some as long as a centimeter, are forming in the connecting elements between the inner frame and the outer skin of the wings.

From his office, Williams can see the buildings in Toulouse where the final assembly of the A380 takes place. At the site, known as Station 45, heavy hydraulic legs lift the wing, which is almost 40 meters (131 feet) long, and bring it into position against a two-meter seam on the fuselage. The plane being assembled on this morning is numbered MSN089. But before the wings are attached to the aircraft, engineer Paul McKenzie stops the hydraulic system. McKenzie is responsible for production and is feeling a little uneasy at the moment, because his workers are installing parts with a built-in material defect. "All the wings that we are now delivering will have to be repaired later on," says McKenzie.

The gaunt British engineer sticks his head into a porthole on the underside of the wing and shines a flashlight inside. A cross strut becomes visible in the light beam, one of the 60 ribs that support the aerodynamic shape of each wing. "These are precisely the ones that are causing all this trouble," says McKenzie.

The ribs are made of innovative composite materials containing carbon fibers. "The corresponding brackets are the real problem," McKenzie explains. They connect the cross strut with the outer skin of the wing and are made of an especially lightweight aluminum alloy, which has the unfortunate drawback that it is subject to cracking in this particular location. By using these high-tech materials, the Airbus engineers were able to reduce the weight of the aircraft by a few hundred kilograms, which is considerable. They did not see the use of the materials as a risk. "We've used this alloy in many other aircraft in the past," says A380 designer Williams.

The problem is that the aluminum in the brackets begins to crack after a few hundred takeoffs and landings. A somewhat larger gap between the base and the outer skin also plays a role. "We're talking about less than a millimeter," says McKenzie. But this apparently resulted in the excessive strain. The wing of the A380 is exposed to tremendous forces so that, during flight, the tip can bend upward by more than two meters or downward by one meter. Huge temperature differences are also a problem. "When the aircraft is sitting on the tarmac in Dubai, the material heats up to 70 degrees Celsius (158 degrees Fahrenheit)," says Williams. "And while flying at cruising altitude, it cools down to minus 50 degrees Celsius (minus 58 degrees Fahrenheit)."

According to Airbus, the damage to the wings is not very dangerous, because there are 4,000 of the brackets in question. Nevertheless, the hairline cracks have to be repaired, and the large number of defective brackets makes it a costly and complex procedure. First the kerosene has to be drained from the tanks. Then the mechanics climb through the small portholes and into the wing. "With my narrow shoulders, I can get in, but people who are too broad can't do the job," Williams says.

Before the repair begins, the wings have to be jacked up to relieve any structural tension. "Then we cut out the parts and insert new ones," the engineer explains. But simply replacing the brackets is not a permanent solution to the problem, he adds, because hairline cracks can also occur in the new brackets. Because the same alloy is still being used in production, the repair remains a patchwork solution. "We will be dealing with the entire problem for years to come," says Williams.

He and his engineers are under a lot of time pressure. More defective wings are constantly being produced at a plant in Broughton, Wales -- wings that McKenzie and his team then attach to the fuselages in Toulouse -- and later have to repair. Williams plans to present management with a permanent solution in April. That solution will presumably involve the use of a stronger alloy, although it will first have to undergo the usual approval procedure. Installation of the new parts is expected to begin by the end of the year. The A380 will gain about 90 kilograms as a result.

How much the troublesome wing cracks will ultimately cost Airbus parent EADS remains to be seen. The company has currently earmarked in its budget more than €100 million ($131 million) for the costs of repairing all aircraft produced by the end of 2012. But that amount could quickly double or even triple if the planes, which are very popular among passengers, require further repairs. Mechanics at Australian carrier Qantas assume that the procedure will take two weeks, which Airbus is unwilling to confirm. Dubai-based Emirates has already demanded €60 million in damages for the amount of time already lost for repairs. Competitor Qantas states: "Qantas has no plans to ask for compensation from Airbus." Secret negotiations over compensation are allegedly underway with Singapore Airlines, but Airbus had no comment.

Executive Vice President of Programs Williams portrays the cracks as one of the typical growing pains that always afflict new aircraft. "You just have to get through it," he says. "Boeing faces similar challenges." But the A380, as the representative of a new class of aircraft, was under more scrutiny from the start. Is the obsession with bigger and bigger aircraft worth the trouble? "Don't get in your rival's way when he's making mistakes," the legendary former Boeing executive Harry Stonecipher said when Airbus decided to build the A380.

Boeing is convinced that the future belongs to the somewhat smaller long-range aircraft that carry 300 passengers, and not to the giant, 600-seat superjumbo, because passengers prefer to be flown directly to their destinations instead of to major hubs like London. In fact, things could be better for the A380. The bad news began with problems in the wiring of the giant jet. At the end of 2010, an engine exploded on a Qantas Airbus near Singapore. The shrapnel from the disintegrating turbine penetrated the wing, and shocked Qantas mechanics later discovered marks showing that it had also scraped along the fuselage. It was a stroke of luck that the fragments did not slice through the cabin like a knife cutting through butter.

After that near-disaster, the hairline crack issue has become the latest of the superjumbo's problems. The A380 has not even contributed to the company's bottom line yet. At first, Airbus officials said that it would have to sell about 250 aircraft to recoup its costs. That number was later almost doubled. Now Airbus executives aren't even citing a break-even sales figure anymore, and for good reason. According to the latest estimates by aviation experts, the company will have to sell at least 600 units of the world's largest aircraft to make a profit. But with a total of 253 orders on its books so far, Airbus is still a long way from that target.

The order books also reveal a major weakness. Although Airbus sells large numbers of smaller aircraft like the new A320neo, it is having trouble finding buyers for its long-range aircraft. Last year, airlines ordered only 19 A380s. Contrary to Airbus's expectations, no orders at all were placed for the A380 at the most important Asian aviation convention in Singapore in mid-February. Instead, the airlines ordered their large aircraft from Boeing, especially the B777, a top seller among long-range aircraft.

Airbus executives find some comfort in the fact that Boeing is currently having trouble selling its 747. But the US competitor also appears to have drawn the consequences from weak sales of the 747, announcing plans to develop an even longer version of the twin-engine 777. It would carry more than 400 passengers, or about as many as a jumbo jet.

With few comparable models in its current lineup, Airbus is working on a redesigned A350 long-range model to fill the gap. But the new aircraft will not be ready for delivery until at least 2014. Meanwhile, the struggle to reduce aircraft weight continues, as does the conflict between two engineering cultures: Should engineers use even more of the new high-tech materials to save weight? Or should they stick with tried-and-true materials to avoid unpleasant surprises like the hairline cracks in the A380 wings?

Williams warns against erring too much on the side of caution because of just this one disaster. "If we had never dared to embark on new paths, aircraft would still be made of wood and canvas."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

Jetstars appearing everywhere

26 March 2012

Yet another Jetstar on the horizon: this time it is Jetstar Hong Kong being brought to you rather strangely by Qantas from One World and China Eastern from Sky Team.

Qantas and China Eastern Airlines are joining together to create a new budget carrier for the Chinese market Both airlines will be equal partners in this venture. The plan is to tie the networks together, with Jetstar Asia based in Singapore and Jetstar Pacific, based in Vietnam, complimenting the Australia and New Zealand units, and the start-up of Jetstar Japan.

The unit will be based out of Hong Kong International Airport, initially with a fleet of three Airbus A320 aircraft, with plans to expand to 18 frames based out of Hong Kong.

Now this has to annoy fellow One World member Cathay Pacific who can be non too happy with Qantas taking on the DragonAir business from HKG into China.

Service commencement has been pegged for 2013, with the major expansion complete by 2015. Services have not been announced at this time, but it is a fair guess to say that destinations in Mainland China, Japan, South Korea and South East Asia are probably on the target list.

There have to be reservations about how you can run an LCC in high cost Hong Kong; landing fees are pricey; the crew base will be expensive. How much of a cost advantage can Jetstar have over home based DragonAir?

Why do we continue to ignore China's rise? Arrogance

Martin Jacques, author of a bestseller on China, asks why the west continues to approach the rise of the new global powerhouse with a closed mind. We obsess over details of the race for the White House, yet give scant regard to the battle to replace China's current leadership. If we fail to pay heed to the political and economic shift of gravity, we will be sidelined by history

25 March 2012 The Observer


History is passing our country and our continent by. Once we were the centre of the world, the place from where power, ideas and the future emanated. If we drew a map of the world, Europe was at its centre. That was how it was for 200 years. No more. The world is tilting on its axis in even more dramatic style than when Europe was on the rise. We are witnessing the greatest changes the world has seen for more than two centuries. We are barely aware of the fact. And therein lies the problem.

I vividly recall when the first edition of my book When China Rules the World was published almost three years ago. At the many talks I gave, I showed a Goldman Sachs chart that projected that the Chinese economy would overtake the US economy in size in 2027. Invariably someone would point out this was only a projection, that the future was never an extrapolation of the past, that it was most unlikely the forecast would come to pass and certainly not in this time frame. No one suggested that the projection underestimated the date, even though the western financial crisis was already almost a year old.

The latest Economist projection suggests China will overtake America in 2018. So why are we – and Europe – so far behind the curve? Why do we insist on living in a world that was rather than is? Why are we so out of touch with both the speed and import of China's rise?

Our ascendancy of the past two centuries – first Europe and then the US – has bred a western-centric mentality: the west is the fount of all wisdom. We think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US. Backward, lacking democracy, bereft of Enlightenment principles, the product of a very different history, it was not western. So how could it? We were the universal model that everyone else had to embrace to succeed. The only form of modernisation that worked was westernisation. China would inevitably fail: the project was unsustainable. By insisting on seeing China through a western prism, we refused to understand China in its own terms. Our arrogance bred ignorance: we were not even curious.

China is, indeed, in so many ways, not like the west. It is not even primarily a nation state but a civilisation state. Whereas the west has primarily been shaped by its experience of nation, China has been moulded by its sense of civilisation. This helps to explain why the Chinese place such a huge emphasis on unity and stability, their reverence for the state and their embrace of ideas such as "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong. Similarly, unlike Europe, China never sought to acquire overseas colonies but established a tribute system in east Asia. The Chinese state bears a fundamentally different relationship to society compared with any western state. The state is seen as an intimate, as a member of the family, rather than, as in western discourse, a problem, a threat, or even the enemy. For the Chinese, the state is the embodiment of its civilisation: as such, it could not be more important, it lies at the heart of the Chinese pysche.

It is impossible to understand or make sense of China through a western prism. As China becomes a great power and, over the next two decades, steadily usurps America as the dominant global power, we will no longer have any alternative but to abandon our western parochialism and seek to understand China on its own terms. But the shift in mindset that faces us is colossal.

What does it mean to be a civilisation state? What was the tributary system and how will it shape China's future behaviour? Why is China's idea and experience of race so different from ours? Just as every non-western country was compelled during the 19th and 20th centuries to understand the west in its own terms, it is now our turn to make sense of a country so different from our own.

It will be a Herculean task: we always look west, hardly ever east. When Bo Xilai, a leading contender for one of China's top positions, was dismissed more than a week ago, it received little attention in our media even though it was the most important event of its kind for more than two decades. Compare, if you will, the attention, devoted by the British media – notably the BBC and quality newspapers – to the Republican primaries with that given to China in the build-up to the Communist party congress in November, when President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The latter is of far greater consequence yet the coverage is paltry in comparison.

We have an enormous China deficit that urgently needs addressing. It is replicated throughout our culture; there has been much talk of promoting Mandarin in our schools and yet, in both the state and private sectors, pitifully few offer it as a serious option. Our economy exhibits the same morbid symptoms: Britain exports more to Ireland than it does to China, India, Russia and Brazil combined. Unless we address these questions, we face the prospect of being sidelined by history.

China's remarkable economic growth started in 1978, but as its economy was then only a 20th the size of America's, its global impact was minuscule. By the turn of the century, however, after more than two decades of double-digit growth, the Chinese economy was more like a quarter of the size of America's, with the consequence that its global effect was of an entirely different order. The story, moreover, was no longer simply about China because by then its rise had begun to transform the world. Only with the financial crisis in 2008, however, did the west finally begin to wake up to the implications.

Although countless commentators speak lazily of the global financial crisis, this is a misnomer. A visit to Beijing will soon dispel the illusion. The place is brimming with energy, elan, confidence and brio. While the west is mired in austerity and stagnation, with a psychology to match, China is riding an extraordinary wave of optimism. In 2010, according to a Pew poll, 91% of Chinese felt good about their country's economy compared with 24% in the US and 20% in Britain. While most western economies are still smaller than they were before 2008, the Chinese economy has been growing in the region of 9-10% a year. That is why it will overtake the US almost a decade earlier than previously predicted.

2008 ushered in a new era, the beginning of a Chinese world economic order. Until recently the US largely shaped globalisation but now China is increasingly assuming that role. Its most dramatic expression is trade. China will shortly become the world's largest trading nation. It imports huge amounts of natural resources and exports a massive volume of manufactured goods: in 2011, it overtook the US to become the world's largest producer of manufactured goods, a position America had previously held for 110 years. In 1990, there was hardly a country in the world for which China was its chief trading partner. By 2000, there were a few, but nearly all were in east Asia. By 2010 the list stretched around the world, including Japan, South Africa, Australia, Chile, Brazil, India, Pakistan, the US and Egypt. Imagine how long the list will be in 2020.

China is rapidly emerging as a great financial power. In 2009 and 2010 the China Development Bank and the China Exim Bank – which I would guess the great majority of Observer readers have never even heard of – lent more to the developing world than the World Bank. Just as the Rothschilds funded much of Europe's industrialisation in the 19th century, so these two banks are now doing the same on a far larger canvas, namely the entire developing world, comprising 85% of the world's population. Meanwhile, in late 2008, China began making the renminbi, hitherto a currency that circulated only in China, available for the settlement of trade. The HSBC has predicted that by 2013-15 half of China's trade with the developing world (which constitutes more than half of China's total trade) will be paid for in renminbi. It is the first stage in the process by which the renminbi will replace the dollar as the world's dominant currency.

The centre of gravity of the global economy is remorselessly shifting from the developed to the developing world. China is the main player and the outcome will be the rapidly declining influence of the developed world and the reconstitution of all major global institutions, notably the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to reflect this.

Pause for a moment and think what it feels like to be in Beijing these days. The place is on fire. It is alive with argument and debate. A country growing at 10% a year is constantly throwing up huge and novel problems that require response and solution. It is a far cry from Britain mired in stagnation, where debate rarely ever breaks new ground and for the most part is backdated. In contrast, China is not only remaking itself with extraordinary speed, but is also remaking the world. Beijing resembles London in 1850 or Washington in 1950, but on an epic scale. It is the most interesting and stimulating city in the world.

I spent much of last autumn as a visiting professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. My stay was a whirl of talks and discussions. Far from the western image of China being devoid of debate, Beijing is positively throbbing with it. And it is extraordinarily open-minded and open-ended. I was invited to give a lecture at the ministry of foreign affairs to around 100 young diplomats at which I suggested that a foreign policy based on Deng Xiaoping's principles was no longer appropriate: a new approach was required that reflected Chinese growing global interests while also drawing on its history. Far from being taken aback, those present entered into a vigorous discussion. These debates, furthermore, are infused with huge significance. As China becomes a great global power they will shape its future policies and priorities – and thereby the world.

One might think that in such times, and with such glittering prospects, China would be full of hubris, bordering even on arrogance. On the contrary, the opposite is the case. The Chinese are still deeply preoccupied with the colossal problems that confront a still poor and developing country of 1.3 billion people. Inequality has soared, sowing the seeds of growing resentment against the rich; land seizures, as events in Wukan recently demonstrated, provide a continuing threat to social stability; massive corruption is corroding the sense of justice and fairness. While possessed of the kind of inner confidence and experience that comes from being the heirs of a great civilisation, the Chinese have no illusions about where they have got to and the tasks that lie ahead.

In November, the Communist party will hold its 18th congress. It will elect a new leadership for the next 10 years during which time China will undergo profound change. Already, there is a major shift under way in economic priorities from low value-added production and massive exports towards higher-end production and domestic consumption. During the next decade we can expect important political reforms.

In Britain, meanwhile, China will continue to receive scant coverage. But, kicking and screaming, forever looking backwards to the age of the west, we will, nevertheless, be dragged into the age of China. Time waits for no country. Over the next decade, we will increasingly come under China's spell.

It is worth reminding ourselves that last October, when the future of the euro was in grave doubt, European leaders pleaded with China to extend a huge loan. Britain is also broke and needs Chinese money for its infrastructure projects. There will be a growing clamour to learn Mandarin. And, as yet hardly recognised, we will find ourselves coming under the growing influence of Chinese soft power, be it the influence of Chinese parenting or the country's stellar educational performance. China will irresistibly shape our future.

HKG gets China's approved CEO

25 March 2012

The Hong Kong election committee of 1,200 of the city's rich, famous and selected by Beijing has chosen Leung Chun-ying, clearly Beijing's preferred choice, as its next leader today following a campaign marred by scandals that created a tide of public discontent and brought street protests.

Leung, a self-made Hong Kong-born surveyor with deep China connections and a reputation as a tough political operator, secured 689 votes to beat main rival Henry Tang, the affluent scion of an industrialist and a former civil service chief.

Of 1,132 votes cast, Tang got 285, while 76 people voted for the Democratic Party's Albert Ho. Ho never had a chance.

Initially considered the underdog to become Hong Kong's chief executive, Leung staged a late charge as early front runner Tang's campaign suffered from a string of scandals including allegations of an illegitimate child, a love affair and illegal construction at his family villa.

Hong Kong's seven million people have no say in who becomes chief executive.

Instead, an election committee filled with business professionals, tycoons and Beijing loyalists, selected Leung as successor to the bow tie-wearing Donald Tsang, who has served two terms and cannot stand again.

About 1,000 protesters, some who camped out overnight, gathered outside the election venue at a harbour-front convention centre to show their anger at being denied a voice

Europe’s airline brew must find a way to lose some froth


24 March 2012 - The Financial Times


You are not a real country unless you have a beer and an airline, Frank Zappa once observed. In 1993, the year of his death, there was much truth to the rock musician’s aphorism. Twenty years later, there isn’t – at least as regard Europe and its airlines.

One by one, Europe’s medium-sized and small nations are discovering that independence can survive the disappearance of an independent national airline. Several former flag carriers, such as Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Swiss, are under full or partial foreign control. Others, such as the Czech Republic’s CSA, Lot of Poland and Portugal’s TAP, are going along the same flight path. Two have gone bust this year: Hungary’s Malev and, to stretch the definition of a national airline, Spanair of Catalonia. The rest are turning into zombies, which stronger rivals cannot be bothered either to absorb or to kill off.

Europe still has too many airlines, but the contours of a consolidated sector are emerging. It is reasonable to expect that the five dominant operators of the future will be Germany’s Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, International Airlines Group (consisting of the old British Airways and Spain’s Iberia), Ryanair and EasyJet.

The latter two low-fare airlines are famously nimble, cost-conscious and quick-thinking. No sooner did Malev bite the dust last month than Michael O’Leary, Ryanair chief executive, announced that his aircraft would replace most of the traffic and routes lost at Budapest airport. EasyJet knows its onions too: its 12.7 per cent return on capital employed last year was an impressive achievement.

What of Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and IAG? Thanks to their state-controlled legacy, these are often considered lumbering beasts, scarred by recurring outbreaks of labour unrest. How well placed are they to deliver profits and compete with the fast-growing airlines of the Gulf, China and south-east Asia?

In the short term there is no question that conditions will be difficult. According to the International Air Transport Association, which represents the world’s airlines, the industry as a whole will eke out a $3.5bn profit this year but European carriers will lose $600m. Rising fuel prices and Europe’s bleak macroeconomic outlook will bite into their profits.

That said, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and IAG are striving to adapt to the harsh climate. Arguably, their most frustrating problem is Europe’s clumsy strategic approach to the development of air transport. Take Lufthansa’s cargo business. This division is one of the company’s most precious assets. It chalked up €249m in operating profit last year, the unit’s second-best annual result. Without the contribution of Lufthansa Cargo, the group’s net loss would have exceeded €13m and – who knows? – shareholders might not have received a dividend.

Almost certainly, Lufthansa Cargo will this year record a lower profit. One reason is that a German court imposed a ban last October on night flights over Lufthansa’s Frankfurt hub. Whether or not this ruling satisfied people who live near the airport, it seemed a peculiar decision: Frankfurt airport had just opened a fourth runway, partly with a view to helping Lufthansa. If a higher court backs the ruling next month, Lufthansa Cargo estimates it will lose €40m in annual earnings.

Similar policymaking confusion hinders the expansion of airport capacity in other parts of Europe. One glaring example is the UK, whose coalition government has ruled out a third runway at London Heathrow – Europe’s busiest hub – but seems in two minds about whether to follow the alternative route of building an airport in the Thames estuary.

This indecision exasperates Willie Walsh, IAG chief executive. A €485m operating profit last year demonstrated his ability to maximise returns from the North Atlantic routes that are his group’s main strength. A takeover of TAP, which Portugal’s debt-stricken government is putting up for sale, would add useful South Atlantic routes. The proposed acquisition of BMI would strengthen its UK position. But bolt-on acquisitions such as these are less important than the modern London hub that IAG needs to flourish in the long term.

Most embarrassing of all is the failure of Europe’s governments to make meaningful progress on creating a so-called “single European sky” for air traffic management. At present no fewer than 38 national air navigation services manage Europe’s airspace. Airlines justifiably regard the cost of such inefficiency as unacceptable.

The European Union deserves praise for having liberalised the aviation market in the 1990s. But the ensuing 54 per cent increase in air traffic makes it inexcusable that governments lack the political will to unify Europe’s airspace or to build more capacity in its airports. If Europe wants an airline industry that thrives as well as consolidates, this is the place to start.

Etihad bans discussion on PPRUNE

24 March 2012

Whatever next? The pilots' rumour network (www.pprune.org) will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted the site informs its readers.

Now if I was looking for a job I would use any useful source of information about my potential employer. And pprune is widely used by both cockpit and cabin crew. But there can be few better reasons to stay away from an employer than one that goes so far as to ban its name on an industry rumour/information network.

Even the cabin crew forum on pprune.org now bans any discussion of Etihad. This forum was widely used by crew to network and discuss recruitment procedures and joining dates.

So what next - ban trip reports on airliners.net; ban frequent flyer discussions on flyertalk.com or pictures of meals or airplanefood.net? Or do other airlines demand the same action on pprune and kill the forum completely.

Clearly there was a threat of legal action - but why not just remove an offending thread rather than all discussion.

The real air rage is airfares

23 March 2012
Macleans Magazine Canada

It’s been five years since U.S. low-cost airline JetBlue Airways applied for, and received, a licence to fly to Canadian cities like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. And yet there has yet to be a single JetBlue flight venturing north of the border. Why? “It’s hard to stimulate travel with low fares while operating in a high-cost environment,” says airline spokesperson Allison Steinberg.

JetBlue isn’t the only airline that says flying in Canada is too expensive. Over the years, a host of foreign airlines, from Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific and Israel’s El Al to Virgin America and Frontier Airlines, have either shelved expansion plans or stopped flying to Canada altogether because of a panoply of aviation taxes and fees in this country, which have contributed to airfares that are, on average, up to $120 more expensive than in the United States, according to some estimates. When coupled with a soaring loonie, the result is an increasingly uncompetitive industry. “There has been a significant increase in airfares,” says Fred Lazar, an associate professor of economics at York University. “Now fuel prices have driven that somewhat, but so too have operating costs at airports.” For instance, last year it cost US$20,885 to land an Airbus A330 at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport, among the world’s most expensive airports, according to data provided by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). By contrast, it cost just US$12,367 to land the same plane at Tokyo’s Narita International Airport and US$13,114 at Frankfurt International Airport.

It’s a reality Canada’s domestic airlines and their passengers know all too well. Last week, hundreds of Canadians faced the prospect of a major strike at Air Canada, potentially throwing their March break travel plans into chaos. Big and bloated, Air Canada has been struggling to convince skeptical employees to make labour concessions in a bid to make the airline more cost-competitive with foreign rivals. With a potential strike by mechanics and a lockout of pilots looming, Labour Minister Lisa Raitt stepped in this week with legislation barring strikes or lockouts, citing the potential impact of a work stoppage on the country’s fragile economy.

The irony is that the government’s own policies are partly to blame for Air Canada’s predicament. CEO Calin Rovinescu has said the airline could save as much as $1 billion annually if it were able to pick up and move to the United States, where the taxes and fees imposed on the industry are far lower. That’s about the same amount Air Canada sought in labour concessions from employees during its 2003 restructuring. Ottawa is treating the industry “like a cash cow, instead of a powerful draught horse,” warned IATA chief executive Tony Tyler during a recent speech in Montreal.

The impact of our pricey skies is most easily seen south of the border. As many as five million Canadians (15 per cent of the population) drive to U.S. airports to take advantage of lower airfares in cities like Buffalo, N.Y., Burlington, Vt., or Bellingham, Wash. A recent survey by the Hotel Association of Canada found that 30 per cent of Canadians say they plan to make the trek to the U.S. to fly next year. “That’s embarrassing,” says George Petsikas, the president of the National Airlines Council of Canada, which represents Air Canada, WestJet, Transat and regional carrier Jazz. “You would think we were a Third World country when it comes to aviation, when in fact it’s the exact opposite. But it’s all pointing to the fact that the system is too expensive. People are voting with their feet.”

So why, exactly, is it so expensive to fly in Canada? Petsikas refers to it as “a club sandwich of taxes, fees and surcharges.” And only some of them are spelled out when you buy your ticket (though are now being included in advertised prices due to new regulatory rules). By far the biggest “tax” on the industry is Ottawa’s current scheme of charging tens or hundreds of millions a year in ground rent to airports—the legacy of a federal government decision in the 1990s to spin off the infrastructure to non-profit airport authorities. The country’s eight largest airports paid a total of $241 million to Ottawa in 2010, with nearly 50 per cent of that coming from Toronto’s Pearson. By contrast, airports in the U.S. remain largely government owned and operated, and therefore don’t make similar lease payments. Ottawa maintains that the current scheme isn’t onerous, accounting for less than one per cent of the cost of an average ticket. “Airport rent represents a fair return to taxpayers for the economic opportunity provided to airport authorities to manage airport operations,” says Maryse Durette, a spokesperson for Transport Canada.

But that’s just one layer of the sandwich. A 2008 report by InterVISTAS Consulting Group found that, unlike in the U.S., Canadian airports also pay a significant amount of money to municipalities in lieu of property taxes (because they are on federal lands) and are not allowed to issue bonds that are tax-free to pay for expansion projects or facility upgrades. Canadian passengers must also pay for the cost of providing airport security (fees were raised, depending on the route, by between $2.58 to $8.91 per passenger a few years ago to pay for new body scanners) and for air navigation services. In the U.S., by contrast, the government foots at least part of the bill for both.

Add it up, and government policies account for anywhere from 16 per cent to 40 per cent of domestic airfares charged by Air Canada and WestJet, notes a report written last year by York University’s Lazar. Another study, by the World Economic Forum, ranked Canada 125th out of 139 countries when it comes to competitive ticket taxes and airport charges.

But convincing Ottawa to give up roughly $1 billion in annual tax revenue won’t be easy in an age of budget deficits. As a result, the industry is trying to convince Ottawa of the potential for economic growth if airport rents, security fees and taxes on jet fuel are scrapped. Lazar’s report estimated that the industry could see an increase of as many as 2.9 million passengers annually and boost economic output by as much as $3.5 billion.

There are also calls to borrow a page from places like Dubai, which views its airline industry as a key pillar of the economy and has tried to establish itself as a hub for global air traffic. “Canada is well-suited geographically to be that type of international hub,” says Daniel-Robert Gooch, the president of the Canadian Airports Council, citing the country’s proximity to the huge U.S. market and connections to Asia and Europe.

The complaints seem to be gaining traction in some parts of the country. In B.C., Premier Christy Clark’s government recently scrapped its carbon tax on jet fuel for international flights, collectively saving airlines flying through Vancouver between $12 million and $16 million a year. The move, designed to make B.C. more competitive with airports south of the border, is especially significant given that drivers in Vancouver are paying a motor fuel tax of 23.5 cents per litre on top of the B.C. carbon tax, which will rise to 6.67 cents a litre on July 1. “Carriers in other countries have choices in where they fly,” Gooch says. “And whether they come to Canada is dependent on whether they think it makes sense for them financially.” In the meantime, air travellers will just have to dig a little deeper.

The airline industry in trouble?

22 March 2012

Tim Clark, President of Emirates Airline told Bloomberg that more airlines will go bust this year as fuel costs and sluggish economies undermine profitability.

“We can reel off a whole load of airlines that are teetering on the brink or are really gone,” Clark said in an interview. “Roll this forward to Christmas, another eight or nine months, and we’re going to see this industry in serious trouble.”

Airline profits will plunge 62 percent in 2012 to $3 billion, equal to a 0.5 percent margin on sales, as oil prices rise, the International Air Transport Association said this week.

Emirates’s fuel bill accounts for 45 percent of costs and may jump by an “incredibly challenging” $1.7 billion in the year ending March 31, according to Clark, who says he’s sticking with a no-hedging strategy rather than risking a losing bet.

“You think you’re going to win, but in the long term you always lose,” Clark said yesterday at the Gulf carrier’s head office near Dubai International Airport. “When we enter into derivatives, betting whatever it may be with counterparties who actually control the price of fuel in the first place, you have to ask yourself, ‘Is that smart?’”

American Airlines is restructuring after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and India’s Kingfisher Airlines Ltd. may lose its license as it struggles with cash shortages and losses. That’s after Barcelona-based Spanair SA collapsed January 27th, followed that week by Hungarian national carrier Malev.

Clark said some private airlines will need to be bailed out by governments in the countries where they’re based, though that will raise aid issues with the European Union and other parties.

In the U.S., more filings for Chapter 11 protection are likely, while smaller carriers operating in the Indian Ocean region and in Africa face “difficulties,” the executive said.

“This is what the fuel prices are doing,” he said. “It’s about time somebody sitting there, controlling the fuel prices, began to look a little bit more seriously at the devastation it’s causing, not only to airlines but to the global economy.”

The industry couldn’t survive a further 10 or 15 percent increase in fuel prices, especially with the European Union’s carbon emissions trading system about to add to costs, he said.

At Emirates the fuel bill, while not over budget, has “zapped the bottom line,” and that will be evident in annual results scheduled to be published next month, Clark said.

Earnings at Emirates are also being hurt by the continued grounding of Airbus SAS A380 superjumbos, of which it’s the No. 1 operator, after the discovery of wing cracks. Six of the jets, which generate $50,000 an hour 15 hours a day, are out of action for repairs, idling 830 cabin crew and 160 pilots, and the carrier is having to compensate people set on an A380 trip.

“That’s had a poleaxing affect in the last nearly three months,” Clark said, estimating the revenue loss so far at $90 million. “Those airplanes are always full, they’re always popular. We’ve had multiple cancellations. We’ve had people telling us ‘Well you sold me the A380’, so we had to throw in 5,000 or 10,000 air miles or give money back. It’s a mess.”

Emirates operates 21 A380s, with 69 more on order as it seeks to establish Dubai as a global hub in competition with Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways Ltd. and European carriers including Air France-KLM Group (AF), Lufthansa and British Airways.

The company is due to get five more A380s by September, and Clark said he’ll meet Airbus next week to determine whether that could change and what the solution to the wing cracks will be.

Clark said Emirates passed on an opportunity to invest in Air Berlin Plc (AB1), Europe’s third-biggest discount carrier, which sold stock to Etihad. “We decided it wasn’t for us,” he said.

Though Qatar Air is also buying 35 percent of cargo specialist Cargolux Airlines International SA, the CEO said he’s not interested in purchases in Europe or elsewhere, having ended a decade-long management accord with SriLankan Airlines in 2008 after the Asian country’s government sought more control.

“We have enough to do without getting involved in the running of other businesses, even though they are related,” he said. “We had our fair share of that in Sri Lanka for 10 years.”

As part of a strategy of tapping demand in secondary cities such as Dusseldorf and Hamburg in Germany, Emirates will select a new French destination from Lyon, Marseille and Toulouse, operating five to seven flights a week, Clark said.

In the U.K., where Emirates serves London Heathrow, London Gatwick, Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle upon Tyne and Glasgow, there’s the possibility of it adding a further destination which “could be north of the border or further west,” he said.

I love it when Clark talks in riddles; so in the UK it must be between Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast. In France - probably Lyon.

It maybe worth putting Clark’s comments into financial context: at the September 2011 half year Emirates reported net profit of Dh827m ($225m) for the six months on Dh30.3 billion ($8.3 billion) revenues. This reflected a collapse in net profit of 76 percent from Dh3.39 billion dirhams a year earlier.

Continuing high oil costs; the global slowdown; A380 issues and the cost of opening up new routes will have hurt second half year profitability. It will now be a surprise if Emirates reports year end profits much exceeding Dh 1.0 billion after reporting AED5.5 billion for the year ended 31 March 2011.

It would be interesting to know how much of the additional fuel costs EK believes that it recovers through fuel surcharges.

A cultural centre for Downtown Dubai

21 March 2012

Just when you thought Dubai had learned a little moderation you realise that ambition will always win out over more moderate common sense. Dubai burst onto the global stage with a series of extravagant projects, world's tallest tower, man made islands etc. which all resulted in a crippling debt, a housing glut and a property crash. So rather than wait until supply and demand are better matched Dubai has revived plans for an opera house and cultural centre in a bid to boost tourism.

Trouble is the project is more than a cultural centre. Predictably it is planned to include a series of condo blocks and high-rise hotels.

The planned modern art museum and opera house district is in the shadow of the Burj Khalifa, the tallest building in the world.

The entertainment complex will include an opera house, modern art museum, art galleries, two new hotels and residential housing, the government announced today.

But unlike its heyday, when everything was aimed at making Dubai's name shine brighter, the government was careful to couch the new development as "the UAE's news arts and cultural nerve
centre," a sign of the closer federal ties forged in the aftermath of Dubai's 2009 debt fiasco, and recognising the tower's name change from Burj Dubai to Burj Khalifa.

Original plans for a dune-shaped opera house and cultural centre, designed by British architect Zaha Hadid and built on a island in Dubai Creek, were shelved as its struggling developer, Sama Dubai, slashed projects in 2009. This was part of the 'Khor Dubai' Cultural Project announced in March 2008 around the Dubai Creek.

The government did not say how the project would be funded or who would design it. "The design and architectural elements... are now being finalised and work will commence shortly," the statement said.

 

 

Why bilinguals are smarter

21 March 2012 The New York Times

Speaking two languages rather than just one has obvious practical benefits in an increasingly globalized world. But in recent years, scientists have begun to show that the advantages of bilingualism are even more fundamental than being able to converse with a wider range of people. Being bilingual, it turns out, makes you smarter. It can have a profound effect on your brain, improving cognitive skills not related to language and even shielding against dementia in old age.

This view of bilingualism is remarkably different from the understanding of bilingualism through much of the 20th century. Researchers, educators and policy makers long considered a second language to be an interference, cognitively speaking, that hindered a child’s academic and intellectual development.

They were not wrong about the interference: there is ample evidence that in a bilingual’s brain both language systems are active even when he is using only one language, thus creating situations in which one system obstructs the other. But this interference, researchers are finding out, isn’t so much a handicap as a blessing in disguise. It forces the brain to resolve internal conflict, giving the mind a workout that strengthens its cognitive muscles.

Bilinguals, for instance, seem to be more adept than monolinguals at solving certain kinds of mental puzzles. In a 2004 study by the psychologists Ellen Bialystok and Michelle Martin-Rhee, bilingual and monolingual preschoolers were asked to sort blue circles and red squares presented on a computer screen into two digital bins — one marked with a blue square and the other marked with a red circle.

In the first task, the children had to sort the shapes by color, placing blue circles in the bin marked with the blue square and red squares in the bin marked with the red circle. Both groups did this with comparable ease. Next, the children were asked to sort by shape, which was more challenging because it required placing the images in a bin marked with a conflicting color. The bilinguals were quicker at performing this task.

The collective evidence from a number of such studies suggests that the bilingual experience improves the brain’s so-called executive function — a command system that directs the attention processes that we use for planning, solving problems and performing various other mentally demanding tasks. These processes include ignoring distractions to stay focused, switching attention willfully from one thing to another and holding information in mind — like remembering a sequence of directions while driving.

Why does the tussle between two simultaneously active language systems improve these aspects of cognition? Until recently, researchers thought the bilingual advantage stemmed primarily from an ability for inhibition that was honed by the exercise of suppressing one language system: this suppression, it was thought, would help train the bilingual mind to ignore distractions in other contexts. But that explanation increasingly appears to be inadequate, since studies have shown that bilinguals perform better than monolinguals even at tasks that do not require inhibition, like threading a line through an ascending series of numbers scattered randomly on a page.

The key difference between bilinguals and monolinguals may be more basic: a heightened ability to monitor the environment. “Bilinguals have to switch languages quite often — you may talk to your father in one language and to your mother in another language,” says Albert Costa, a researcher at the University of Pompeu Fabra in Spain. “It requires keeping track of changes around you in the same way that we monitor our surroundings when driving.” In a study comparing German-Italian bilinguals with Italian monolinguals on monitoring tasks, Mr. Costa and his colleagues found that the bilingual subjects not only performed better, but they also did so with less activity in parts of the brain involved in monitoring, indicating that they were more efficient at it.

The bilingual experience appears to influence the brain from infancy to old age (and there is reason to believe that it may also apply to those who learn a second language later in life).

In a 2009 study led by Agnes Kovacs of the International School for Advanced Studies in Trieste, Italy, 7-month-old babies exposed to two languages from birth were compared with peers raised with one language. In an initial set of trials, the infants were presented with an audio cue and then shown a puppet on one side of a screen. Both infant groups learned to look at that side of the screen in anticipation of the puppet. But in a later set of trials, when the puppet began appearing on the opposite side of the screen, the babies exposed to a bilingual environment quickly learned to switch their anticipatory gaze in the new direction while the other babies did not.

Bilingualism’s effects also extend into the twilight years. In a recent study of 44 elderly Spanish-English bilinguals, scientists led by the neuropsychologist Tamar Gollan of the University of California, San Diego, found that individuals with a higher degree of bilingualism — measured through a comparative evaluation of proficiency in each language — were more resistant than others to the onset of dementia and other symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease: the higher the degree of bilingualism, the later the age of onset.

Nobody ever doubted the power of language. But who would have imagined that the words we hear and the sentences we speak might be leaving such a deep imprint?

Thailand struggles to teach the basics of sex education to students

20 March 2012 - The Guardian

Her hands running with sultry precision down her teen curves, she sashays across the stage, her bikini-sized jean shorts stretching just barely below her bottom. Pop sensation Turbo Music is so young she still has braces on her teeth, but that doesn't stop myriad middle-aged men from clawing at her legs and private parts, eager to put paper bills anywhere their fingers might reach.

This is modern Thailand: a nation home to the first-ever airline staffed by ladyboys, the highest number of sex-change surgeries worldwide and a seeming openness to sex rarely seen – or enjoyed – anywhere else in the world. But ask a local teen how to put on a condom, or the ways in which HIV is contracted, and you will likely be met with a blank stare and shy giggle. Despite an education system that has created one of Asia's highest rates of literacy, Thailand has the second-highest number of teen pregnancies in the world, the highest rate of HIV/Aids in Asia, and year-on-year increasing rates of STD infection among its youth.

The country's "top-down control of thoughts and behaviour" in its schools is partly to blame, says Bangkok-based blogger Kaewmala, author of Sex Talk, which analyses Thai culture and sexuality. "Sex isn't always a taboo subject in Thai culture ... [But] what is 'appropriate' is often narrowly and strictly defined by those who aren't always in touch with reality."

Last year it was Turbo Music's single Itchy Ear that drew attention to the divide between Thailand's hyper-eroticised image and its surprisingly conservative culture. With lyrics describing a bodily "itch" desperate for a scratch and a YouTube video watched over 17m times, the band – and its message – attracted a flurry of criticism about "amoral Thai behaviour" and the "taboo nature" of sex in Thai culture.

This year, it was an claim by the National Economic and Social Development Board that Facebook was partly to blame for the country's unwanted teen pregnancies, citing seducing messages and video clips as an issue.

Then there was a nationwide health exam for high school students that asked: "If you have a sexual urge, what should you do?" Optional answers included: a) Ask friends if you can play football together; b) Consult family members; c) Try to sleep; d) Go out with a friend of the opposite sex; or, e) Invite a close friend to watch a movie together.

The correct answer, according to Dr Samphan Phanphrut, director of the National Institute of Educational Testing Services, which oversees the exam, was (a): Ask friends if you can play football together, whether the exam taker was a boy or girl. The question, he told local media, was intended to verify students' ability to recognise – and act – on their sexual impulses.

Copies of the test posted online quickly attracted messages of outrage and chagrin, with commentators lamenting the lack of parent-child dialogue on sex and the state of the country's education system – sentiments that some politicians echo. Dr Pusadee Tamthai, of Thailand's National Commission for Women's Affairs, says the indirect wording of the question, coupled with its many possible answers, only proved educators' inability to reach their students.

"Children are growing up so much faster today than in the past, but because sex is taboo in Thailand, they seldom learn about sex from their parents or family, so they depend on magazines, the internet and their friends for information," she says. "When they do learn about sex at school, the way that students communicate with their teachers is hierarchical and [therefore] not very open, because in our culture of respecting the elderly there's an emphasis on taking care of what you say rather than talking freely and without judgment."

Luckily, there are some educators in Thailand who are listening. Maytinee Bhongsvej, executive director of the Association for the Promotion of the Status of Women, has launched a frank approach to sex education in the capital, where a comprehensive programme – encompassing self-esteem, bodily and emotional changes, gender rights, STDs and intercourse – has been rolled out to some 100 schools around Bangkok. The course, she says, far surpasses the "sperm and ovary" biology focus of the national curriculum and – despite being highly controversial – has met with great success anecdotally.

"People think that if you talk about sex, you encourage them to have it. But if you keep preaching 'Maintain your virginity', you don't prepare kids for reality," she says. "We believe that kids should be fully informed because then they can avoid situations that would lead them to problems."

Tamthai, who hopes to see a programme like Maytinee's as part of the national curriculum one day, is restrained in her hope. "That starts with being honest with each other," she says, "and that's a lot to do."

'Mad Men' Returns: Who Knew Don Draper Was a True Believer?


20 April 2012

When we last saw Don Draper, he was in bed with a woman he barely knew. And while in many ways that might seem like a typical day at the office for this guy, this woman was wearing his engagement ring. The same diamond ring that Lt. Don Draper put on Anna's finger all those years ago, and the ring that represents yet another one of the former Dick Whitman's attempts to make a fresh start. That's what makes Don Draper such a quintessential American fool, and helps explain our obsession with him. Every American wants a clean slate, but nobody wants to lose what they've got.

Which is why every American's a sucker for the next scam artist who promises them a new tomorrow – and Don Draper, as the greatest of scam artists, the one who never fails to seduce the rubes, is also the biggest sucker of them all. As Peggy said to Joan, shaking her head in disbelief, "A pretty face comes along and everything goes out the window." Don Draper knows how that works – he's a pretty face himself, and he's built a career hustling in the dirty world of American dreams. But nobody falls for a con harder than a con man.

Mad Men is the most astonishing, revelatory drama of our time, in any medium or format, and it's coming off two of the most sensational seasons in TV history. Judging by the premiere episode, Season Five is on the same level. In other words, we're still in the prime of our Mad Men moment. And without getting into any of the details of what's happened or how long it's been since we last saw these characters, suffice to say, it's correct to assume they are as glamorously fucked as ever. This is still a world where people pick up babies while clenching lit cigarettes between their teeth. It's a world where pot is "tea," and business meetings mean martinis.

Season Four ended with the most shocking plot twist Mad Men has ever seen: Don impulsively gives that engagement ring to Megan, a secretary he's basically just met, after a trip to (where else?) Disneyland. As Mad Men viewers, we haven't spent much time with Megan, either. All we really knew was that she was a sultry young hipster from Montreal, which can only mean she's banged Leonard Cohen and inspired him to write at least one miserable love ballad. (My money's on "Famous Blue Raincoat.")

Many fans were horrified to see Don act like a starry-eyed sucker, instead of the cool customer we need him to be. It turns out this guy believes in Hollywood happy endings. He's not satisfied to sell the American dream – he wants to believe. And if even Don Draper falls for his own promises, what hope is there for the rest of us?

One of the reasons Mad Men inspires such passion is that it's always a pleasure to knock a few back with these characters. We know too much to trust them, but they're likable – as any long-con grifter needs to be. However, there's a new anxiety that lurks right below the bravado. Their world is changing, and some of the sharks at Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce are adjusting more smoothly than others. Yet for all of them, survival means turning on the surface charm even when they're falling apart inside.

Early in the new season, a jazz band tootles away at the 1965 hit "The 'In' Crowd," and it's a stunningly understated bit of music commentary. Everyone on Mad Men wants to be in with the in crowd. And they're desperate to imitate anyone who can show them how it's done. Don Draper wins people over by coming on like the innest of the in crowd – he's the guy who knows. On Mad Men, that's part of the Sixties scene – this is a moment in American history where everybody wants some role in the Don Draper story. But the man is a masquerade, and that's the reason Mad Men keeps getting more fascinating. The secret of the in crowd is that there's nothing in there – except more mystery.

This story is from the March 29th, 2012 issue of Rolling Stone.

EK A380 equipment changes for April

20 March 2012

If there are any Emirates crew who want to know why their rosters are going to be late for April then this is a pretty good clue.

The continuing program of checking the A380 wing joints means the new planes are being taken out of service on a regular basis I read as many as six of the planes are out of action at any one time.

This means that 777s are having to fly routes previously given up to the A380s; this has to be delaying the launch of new 777 routes.

Anyway here are the known changes for April from airlineroute.net

Dubai – Kuala Lumpur EK346/347 till 21APR12 Boeing 777-300ER replaces A380, except 01APR12
Dubai – Paris CDG EK073/074 27MAR12 – 05APR12 Day 245 operates with Boeing 777-300ER instead of A380 - 777 crews will like this as it must mean two 2 day and one 3 day layover in Paris...unless scheduling juggle the afternoon flight rosters.
Dubai – Rome EK097/098 till 27APR12 A380 replaced by 777-300ER
Dubai – Seoul Incheon till 14APR12 Boeing 777-300ER replaces A380

Note also that EK372 to BKK appears to be operated by a 777 for the whole month rather than the A380 that is operating in March.

Planned A380 service changes on following routes remain unchanged:

Dubai – Johannesburg EK761/762 till 30APR12 Boeing 777-300ER replaces A380
Dubai – London Heathrow Changes to existing A380 service, which temporary reduced from 3 to 2 Daily. 4th Daily A380 service postponed till 01MAY12
EK001/002 A380
EK003/004 A380
EK005/006 A380 replacing 777-300 from 25MAR12 remains unchanged
EK029/030 A380 replaced by 777-300 until 24MAR12, 777-300ER from 25MAR12 to 30APR12

Other A380 service may see last minute aircraft changes when necessary.

Bangkok's airport woes

18 March 2012

Bangkok's futuristic $4 billion Suvarnabhumi airport opened six years ago. There were problems when it opened. There are still problems now.

The trouble is that the problems are related to management of the airport; where the Thai authorities have been wholly ineffective.

Today, it is beset by two-hour immigration queues and passenger numbers far beyond the original capacity.

Immigration queues for departing flights have grown so long travellers have been told to arrive three hours before a flight.

The government's solution is to try to convince growing numbers of low-cost carriers to move operations to Don Muang, a domestic airport. Which misses the point completely. The problem is with immigration. Domestic passengers do not require immigration facilities.

Suvarnabhumi is expected to handle about 50 million passengers this year, well above its planned capacity of 45 million. The trouble is no additional terminal facilities are under construction.

At the moment the departure immigration areas are under redevelopment adding to the problems. But travellers also grumble at the frequent site of empty immigration kiosks and lines for foreigner nationals stretching far longer than those of Thais. Others say kiosks designed to hold two officers are often manned by one.

The new airport's construction was marred by graft scandals, delays and design problems. It was first proposed more than 40 years ago. Even before it was christened in 2006, aviation experts predicted it would reach capacity in just a few short years.

Don Muang, the old airport, was re-opened in 2007 for domestic flights due to the capacity problems. Nok Air and Orient Thai both used the old airport; but they were forced to move to Suvarnabhumi after the old airport flooded for months at the end of last year. 

There are also no transport links between Suvarnabhumi, in the east of the city, and Don Muang to the north.

The trouble is that Suvarnabhumi's development  was caught up in a combination of endemic corruption and cultural incompetence. With all the resources of the world at their disposal for a project that attracted the best talent in the world, this was the best Thailand could do.

The hub of scams - with Suvarnabhumi at its centre. It will likely take five more years to complete terminal and runway expansion to handle the additional passengers.

Princess Bejaratana

18 March 2012

As I walked around Sanam Luang on Saturday I saw the cremation buildings being constructed for HRH Princess Bejaratana who died last July. But ask most Thais and they know little about the Princess.

All night entertainment venues will be instructed to suspend their businesses from April 8-10 during her funeral. Other private enterprises will be asked to fly national flags at half-mast on their premises. No alcohol will be sold or served.

Respect for the royal institution is a key building block of Thai society; however the closure of so many businesses over the Easter weekend when so many people visit Thailand will not be good for tourism or business; it is also during the week leading up to Songkran when Thailand is always busy with visitors.

The crematorium for the late Princess is coloured in gold - the standard colour for a royal funeral - and pink, the shade representing Tuesday, the day of the princess' birth.

This crematorium is smaller than that built for the late HRH Princess Galyani Vadhana, because HRH Princess Bejaratana's body is contained in an urn, while that of HRH Princess Galyani Vadhana was placed in a casket.

The main pavilion, crematorium and other buildings will be open for the public to visit from April 11-17. A permanent exhibition in honour of the late princess will be installed at Nakhon Pathom's Sanam Chandra Palace, which was built by King Rama VI.

Princess Bejaratana was born on 24 November 1925 in the Royal Grand Palace, Bangkok, as the only child of King Vajiravudh (Rama VI) and Princess Suvadhana. King Rama VI died on 25 November 1925 and was succeeded by his brother, King Prajadhipok (Rama VII), who performed the naming ceremony for the princess on 30 December 1925.

In 1937 mother and daughter moved to England and stayed there for twenty years before returning to Thailand in 1959. Princess Bejaratana died on 27 July 2011, aged 85.

Princess Bejaratana is first cousin with HM King Bhumibol Adulyadej and third cousin with HM King Norodom Sihanouk of Cambodia.

EK to DC

15 March 2012

Emirates announced today that it would start flights to Washington Dulles International Airport from 12th September 2012.

Emirates will operate a Boeing 777-300 ER aircraft on its DC route. This will be Emirates’ seventh U.S. gateway and the third new American route to launch in 2012.

The greater Washington, DC area is highly diverse, with over 15% of its population born outside the US. The region is home to more than 1,000 international institutions and over 1,000 foreign-owned companies from 50 countries.

Washington, DC is also a must-see destination for visitors to the United States. From learning about flight at the National Air and Space Museum to feeding tarantulas at the National History Museum’s Insect Zoo, America’s capital is packed with fascinating attractions, not to mention iconic landmarks such as The White House, The US Capitol and The Washington Monument.

Disclosure - I think Washington is a great city. If something happens in the world Washington responds. No other city can match that.

Emirates’ network now encompasses 122 cities globally, with 22 destinations in Africa, 17 in the Middle East and 18 in the Far East and Australasia.

The flight will leave as EK 231 from Dubai daily at 02:20hrs and arrive at Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) at 08:50hrs. EK 232 will depart Dulles at 10:55hrs arriving in Dubai at 08:00hrs the following day.

EK to add 3rd daily to Rome

12 March 2012

Emirates Airline said today that it will boost its operations in Italy this October as the airline adds a third daily flight to Rome.

This will take the total number of flights offered to Italy to 56 a week, the Dubai-based carrier said in a statement.

Starting October 1, EK 099 will be operated by a 237-seat Airbus A330-200, which will also add a total of 15 tonnes of cargo-carrying capacity to the route.

The flight number and times are:

EK 099 DXB-FCO 0315 0735 - A332
EK 100 FCO-DXB 1120 1910 - A332

Yet another addition to the European 3am departure bank.

It may be time for Emirates to start adding extra Asian departures around 11pm; such as the existing BKK flight. This works if the flights can connect into the afternoon European departures.

Rome is currently served twice daily by Emirates. Coupled with a triple daily service to Milan commencing on June 1 and a double daily flight to Venice beginning March 25, the increased weekly frequencies add three new flights to Italy over 6 months.

Fabrizio Palenzona, chairman of Aeroporti di Roma (ADR), added: “Without a doubt, Emirates represents a strategic partner in ensuring further traffic growth between Rome and all the main long haul routes in Asia, Australia and a large part of Africa.

"After being the first airport in Italy able to welcome the A380, thanks to the investment for a new dedicated loading bridge, we’re now looking forward in cutting the ribbon next October 1 for this new additional flight,” he said.

Emirates is increasing services to mainland Europe with flights being launched to Barcelona on July 3 and Lisbon from July 9.

Qatar Airways pushes back plans for IPO


12 March 2012

Qatar Airways has indicated that any partial public listing will not happen for 5 to 8 years. The airline's CEO, Akbar Al Baker, told journalists at the ITB Berlin travel fair that the IPO "will be postponed for a long time because we feel it will take a long time to recover from the economic situation that the world is in."

Qatar Airways indicated late in 2010 it was planning an initial public offering in early 2012 after three consecutive years of profit. Last June, Al Baker had said the carrier could seek a stock market listing by the end of 2011.

Al Baker said the IPO plan would have been to list 50 percent of the company's shares, but limit foreign ownership of stock to 20-25 percent.

He said profit would slump at the airline due to the Arab Spring uprisings and high fuel prices. He added that he expected revenue of $6bn, up from $5.1bn the previous year.

Al Baker said in June the airline made net profit of $205 million for 2009/10 and more than $230m in 2010/2011 .

Now those figures are interesting - Qatar does not publish its financial statements - but these at least give some basis for comparison with Emirates.

US$ Emirates Airline Qatar
Revenue year ended 31 March 2011 14.8 billion 5.1 billion
Profit year ended 31 March 2011 1.5 billion 230 million

High-pressure game without a net when you hang up gloves

11 March 2012 - David James in The Guardian.

The former England goalkeeper, and in the eyes of this ex-goalkeeper one of the very best,  is addicted to the game and wonders how he will cope when he finally retires.  David will likely be fine; he is articulate and aware and can have a successful career in or out of the sport. But his article does say a lot about the demands on professional sportsmen and women. It may be even more of an issue for cricketers who at the top level are away from home and family for months on end.


"Stepping out on to the field for my 900th club appearance on Saturday evening, it was becoming harder than ever to escape the fact that my playing days are numbered. At 41 years old the realisation is finally beginning to hit home – I can't play football forever. At some point in the not too distant future I'm going to have to hang up my boots. The change is unimaginable.

After 26 years in the game I'm as institutionalised as they come. How will I cope? The unexplained death of Gary Speed has prompted many players to speak candidly about depression following their retirement, bringing the issue into stark focus. From Dean Windass to Stan Collymore, players who were once regarded as stars suddenly find themselves lost. My generation of footballers won't become pub landlords like our predecessors, so what will we do instead? An awful lot of soul searching, I imagine.

Football has been our addiction. We have lived the dream but for many it comes to an abrupt end. Last weekend, doing a bit of punditry for the BBC, Robbie Savage told me that since retiring there are days where he just doesn't know what to do with himself. Having spent our entire adult lives following orders – infantilised by the system – suddenly we have to make our own decisions, to grow up, to reintegrate back into mainstream society.

On retiring many players simply disappear from public life. Where once they were lauded on TV every week, suddenly they are a nobody. It can be very hard to take. Already I have had a taste of that – from playing for England at the World Cup when it felt like the whole nation was talking about us, to playing in the Championship, a league that receives a fraction of the media coverage of the Premier League. No wonder former sports people end up on shows like Strictly Come Dancing, they miss being the centre of attention.

I can't see myself ever doing one of those shows and yet it was only a few years ago that I wrote in this column about my dislike of punditry. But last weekend there I was on the BBC. I really enjoyed myself – even if the lads did hammer me for the waistcoat I was wearing.

Some might wonder what footballers have to be depressed about, playing the beautiful game, earning millions of pounds (though not all of us do), but while it is a wonderful way to earn a living, football is not real life and even if we try to remain in the game – through management or punditry – we can't escape the real world forever.

So what do I mean by institutionalised? Well, at 41 I'm pretty childish. I remember the record producer Pete Waterman once saying that as soon as a boy band tell you they want to write their own songs you know they're finished. Football is no different. Players remain juvenile well into their late 20s and 30s. It suits the industry to keep us that way. And the longer you stay in the industry, the deeper that goes.

Football has been everything to us. It rules our home lives. We live for the highs – a man-of-the-match performance watched by millions on live TV – and crumble at the lows, a never-ending oscillation between extreme emotional states. It affects our relationships with our partners, children, friends and colleagues. In my 26 years of professional football I've been a nightmare to be around. At Liverpool I'd come off the field after winning 3-1 and be in a terrible mood because I had conceded a goal. Anyone who came near me after a defeat – strewth, it bothers me how horrible I used to be.

The game puts a great deal of strain on those around you. Children in particular suffer. In my own life I gave much more to football than I did to being a father. Whether it was mood swings affecting the atmosphere at home, or just physically not being there – travelling to away games, training camps, pre-season tours, training on Christmas Day. When you retire, suddenly you are forced to pick up the pieces. You have to become a real dad, a real husband, a real son. No one warns you that this will happen and who do you turn to for help? You could be the richest retired footballer in the world but you can't pay someone to sort out your family for you.

There is a misconception that all footballers are very confident, but it is the opposite for most. While as individuals we are often put in a position of prestige, our power in real terms is pretty limited. No wonder so many young players go off the rails. Idolised as God's gift in one sphere, within the workplace they are expected to bow down to the authority of the club. It is a strange and confusing dynamic, forever in conflict. It is no coincidence that footballers tend to be extremely insecure. We feed off praise, and it is a harsh reality check when you realise that most people around you are feeding you absolute rubbish.

It is a great irony that in a game where we routinely talk about confidence on the pitch, psychological support off it is so appallingly neglected. Many years ago when I was going through a bad time at Liverpool I approached the club for some support. Back then I was told, "shut up and deal with it". Sadly, I don't think that football has moved on from that position. Even when clubs are forward thinking enough to invite a sports psychologist into the fold players are apprehensive about making use of them. They are too worried about what their team-mates and management will think. "Will everyone think I'm mad?" "What if he tells the manager about me?" "What if it jeopardises my position in the team?"

I always say it: we have nutritionists to help with our diets, sports scientists to help our strength and conditioning, technical coaches to help our performance but the one area that essentially determines everything – psychology – is always missing. Ask about a psychology coach and you are guaranteed to be met with a frown.

Our industry is crying out for an independent support network to help current and former players deal with the pressures of the game. Until then I'll probably put off retirement for a while yet. At least until I reach 1,000 club appearances."

David James donates his Guardian fees to charity

Emirates seeks A380 compensation

9 March 2012

Emirates Airline , the world's largest operator of Airbus's A380 superjumbo, plans to seek compensation from the aircraft maker after complaining of widespread disruption and an expected loss of revenue, the airline's president told the Financial Times on Friday.

Emirates President Tim Clark said the airline expected to lose up to $90 million by the end of March because of the A380 groundings that began in January.

The Financial Times cited Clark as saying that the Dubai-based carrier would be seeking compensation from Airbus.

"From a commercial point of view, it's a dreadful experience. It has caused a lot of commercial hardship and we are not very happy with the way this has gone," Clark is quoted as saying.

European air safety regulators last month ordered checks for Airbus A380 wing cracks for the entire superjumbo fleet after safety engineers found cracks in almost all the planes inspected.

Emirates has found wing cracks on the 10 A380s that have been inspected so far, and Clark says that all 21 in its fleet would need remedial work.

Clark criticised Airbus' handling of the wing cracking issue, accusing the company of initially being in a state of "denial" about the scale of the problem, although he accepted that the company was now seeking to rectify the situation. Emirates has a further 69 A380s on order with Airbus.

Airbus could not be reached for immediate comment.

Expect to see even more pressure from Emirates on Airbus as the manufacturer faces potential delays in its A350 programme.

SQ's woes

9 March 2012

Singapore Airlines Ltd , the world's second-largest carrier by market value, said on Friday it has asked its pilots to volunteer for a no-pay leave of up to two years as the industry was hit by weak demand and soaring jet fuel prices.

The move comes on the heels of a 53 percent plunge in third-quarter net profits for the Singapore flag-carrier, which recently also announced a 20 percent capacity cut for its cargo operation and higher fuel surcharges.

The offer is open to senior first officers, first officers, second officers and cadet pilots, for durations of between one week and two years to address a surplus of pilots, according to Singapore Air spokesman Nicholas Ionides.

"The global financial crisis in 2009-10 was a factor and resulted in some excess capacity at the time. Growth was also slower than anticipated after that," Ionides said, adding that pilots opting for no-pay leave can work for other carriers during the period subject to a written approval from Singapore Airlines.

The carrier has no plans to make the scheme compulsory at this point and sees the situation as temporary, he said.

Singapore Air has been badly hit by a slowdown in corporate travel as major companies, mainly financial firms, cut costs.

Singapore Air appears to have lots its edge in recent years; it still has a good product; but the network growth is not there and management appears distracted in its focus as it tries to leverage Scoot and Tiger for the LCC/leisure business and Silk Air for second tier regional traffic from Singapore.

Ionides did say that SIA has no plans to reduce flights and downsize its operating fleet in the near term. "To the question of why we are offering the scheme, the global financial crisis in 2009-10 was a factor and resulted in some excess capacity at the time. Growth was also slower than anticipated after that," Ionides added.

Captain P. James, president of the Airline Pilots Association Singapore, questioned why pilots were being asked to go on leave when there's a need for them in other airlines with the SIA Group.

"We can understand that there's a downturn but what we cannot understand and cannot accept is why pilots are being asked to go on leave where there's a need for them in other airlines within the group," James told the Straits Times.

More analysis of SQ here from Aspire Aviation

2027 is new date for Dubai's new airport

7 March 2012

It was inevitable but it needed to be announced. Dubai’s major airport project, the US$34bn Al Maktoum International Airport, will not begin full commercial passenger services until at least 2027, the CEO of Dubai Airports has said.

“The original [plan] was to have some capacity online for 2017, we’ve pushed that back by about ten years... something around [2027],” Dubai Airports’ CEO Paul Griffiths told Arabian Business in an interview.

Confirming the plan to move all airlines to the new airport he added that “the idea is to build a facility that’s large enough so that Emirates and other airlines could move, not necessarily at the same time, but within a fairly short timeframe.”

The global financial crisis and a lack of available financing have delayed the development of Al Maktoum International.

Instead Dubai Airports have focused on maximising capacity at existing DXB by spending US$7.8bn to build an additional concourse for terminal 3 and a new terminal 4. This will take capacity at DXB from 50 million passengers a year to 90 million.

The plan is to generate cash from DXB to finance the development of Al Maktoum.

By the middle of the next decade, the aim is to have a capacity for 80m passengers at the new airport, allowing Dubai’s state-owned carrier Emirates to move its entire operation to the new hub. But the new airport was planned with a capacity of 120 million and will need all of that to move all the airlines from DXB.

The immediate focus is to increase cargo operations at the second airport. The
airport has announced plans to develop more cargo terminals at Al Maktoum, of a similar size to the existing shed which can handle around 250,000 tonnes of cargo per year.

As for passengers - a passenger terminal building has been constructed. It is a budget terminal which will be ready for operation during the course of 2012. It has a capacity of around 7m passengers. Enough for instance for flydubai.

The problem is that no airline will want to move there and lose their connections at DXB. So plans are for the passenger operation are far from clear.

However this is dressed up it is a far cry from the original plans: back in March 2007
Emirates Airline president Tim Clark says that he hopes discussions will start in "a couple of months" about accelerating the airport's development. "The existing airport will be reaching maximum capacity by 2013, so by 2016, we should be moving to Jebel Ali," he said at the time.

That was then - this is now ! It is OK to extend the life of DXB. But the problem is landing and take-off slots which are no longer available at peak times. The LCCs need to move to Jebel Ali to free up slots at DXB; but no airline will want to move - including flydubai as that will limit connections to EK.

As peak time slots are not available EK itself will have to make use of less convenient arrival and departure times. And as the number of flights increase through the day the airport regulators will need to find ways to better use the two existing runways - using both runways for landings at peak times would be a start. At peak times 12L or 30L are used for arrivals; but at this time there are almost no departures meaning that 12R or 30R are not in use.

One final thought is that by 2018 Emirates fleet will have doubled; including 90 A380s. Just where will all those airplanes be parked. The only solution is for the LCCs and business traffic to move to Jebel Ali. But there will need to be a significant improvement in road and bus access to the new airport.

Thaksin talks of return this year

7 March 2012 Bloomberg

Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed as Thai premier in a 2006 coup, said his sister's seven-month-old government will avoid the same fate due to her good ties with the army and expressed hope he'd return from exile this year.

"As long as there is no issue related to the monarchy, as long as there is no issue about internal security, the military will stay in the barracks," Thaksin, whose sister Yingluck Shinawatra become prime minister in August, said in an interview yesterday in Seoul. "My sister works hard for the people, she respects the monarchy very much and she can work with the military without conflict."

Yingluck's push to rewrite the constitution risks sparking violence like in 2008 when a similar effort by Thaksin's allies led to protests by his yellow-shirted opponents who shut down parts of Bangkok and seized the city's airports. Yingluck, a political novice before standing in July elections, is seeking to reassure foreign investors after floods last year swamped thousands of factories and caused the economy to shrink for the first time since 2009.

Changing the constitution to make it more democratic has "almost consensus" support among Thailand's 66 million people, Thaksin said in an interview that spanned calls for diversifying some of the nation's foreign-exchange reserves to advocating lower interest rates to spur growth.

"History will not repeat itself," Thaksin said, referring to street battles that have claimed more than 100 lives since his ouster. Thailand "will move toward reconciliation" as early as this year, he said.

The proposal to create a 99-member Constitution Drafting Assembly passed 399 to 199 on Feb. 24, the first of three required votes in the National Assembly. The People's Alliance for Democracy, which led anti-Thaksin protests in 2006 and 2008, plans to meet on March 10 to decide whether to return to the streets in a bid to block its passage.

Events in recent weeks point to a detente between Thaksin and his opponents, including the presence of top royal adviser Prem Tinsulanonda, who Thaksin earlier accused of backing the coup, at a dinner hosted by Yingluck, according to Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. Court decisions upholding government spending plans and convicting anti-Thaksin protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul of fraud are further evidence, he said.

"There's been a string of indications that the groups we expected to see undermining this government are not doing so," Montesano said. "For once, Thaksin's sweeping statements are perhaps not all bluster."

Thaksin, 62, became a billionaire after winning a mobile- phone concession in 1990 for what became Thailand's biggest operator. He soon entered politics and appealed to voters in the poorer northeast region with cheap health care and small loans, a platform that underpinned his tenure as prime minister from 2001 until his ouster.

Thaksin has lived overseas since fleeing a two-year jail sentence in 2008 for helping his wife buy land from the government. A court seized 46.4 billion baht ($1.5 billion) of his family's money in 2010, two weeks before his supporters started protests that shut down Bangkok's commercial center and ended in a military crackdown and arson attacks.

"I've done nothing wrong," Thaksin said when asked if he'd ever spend a day in jail to foster reconciliation.

In July, Yingluck's Pheu Thai won 265 seats in the 500-seat parliament on pledges to raise the minimum wage, buy rice at above-market rates and give students tablet computers. It was the fifth straight election win since 2001 for allies of Thaksin.

Yingluck "will start delivering campaign promises and the economy will move accordingly," Thaksin said. "The flood maybe slowed down her performance a little bit, but now I think she performs very well -- better than I expected."

Thailand's consumer confidence rose for a third straight month in February, the latest indicator of a recovery after the nation's worst floods in almost 70 years disrupted supply chains for companies such as Apple Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. The state planning agency forecasts the economy may expand as much as 6.5 percent this year after the deluge slowed annual growth to 0.1 percent in 2011.

Since King Bhumibol Adulyadej confirmed Yingluck as premier on August 8, Thailand's SET Index has risen 7 percent, more than benchmarks in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. The baht fell 3 percent in that time.

Thaksin criticized Thailand's central bank, saying policy makers were overly concerned about inflation and should keep interest rates low to boost growth. Foreign reserves of $181 billion are "unnecessarily high" and should be invested in large-scale infrastructure projects, he said.

"Sometimes government officials don't want to take any risks," he said, adding that he respects the central bank's autonomy.

Thaksin considers himself an encyclopedia that Yingluck "can open anytime she wants to." He said he has no ambition to serve again as prime minister and will seek to become her adviser if he returns to Thailand.

"A Thaksin government without Thaksin is absolutely perfect at the moment," said Chris Baker, a Bangkok-based political analyst and author of a biography on Thaksin. "Yingluck is doing a brilliant job of empathetic, slightly low- key leadership. We are back on the path before the coup. The one thing that can throw this is if Thaksin tries to return."


Emirates planning update

5 March 2012

There were a few hints dropped in Seattle about Emirates route plans - which clearly involve increasing frequencies on many of its global routes and maybe a new Australian destination; assume Adelaide.

Shaikh Ahmad Bin Saeed Al Maktoum told Gulf News that "you will see the frequency increasing in some flights from once to twice or even more daily; there will be new points in South and North America, Europe and China while in Australia there is a big chance of introducing a new destination."

Shaikh Ahmad also said: "Concourse 3 should open by the first quarter of next year and that itself can accommodate up to 20 Airbus 380s. The plan by 2020, however, is to finish Terminal 4, following which all the international carriers will be moved there while terminals 1and 3 will be devoted to us."

On the growing number of competitors in the region — including Qatar Airways and Etihad — Shaikh Ahmad said: "I always believe that competition will be there, but what can you do about it? The way I see it, Qatar and Etihad are now complementing what we are doing for the whole region.

"At the end of the day, we look at the numbers to see whether our seat factor dropped and the answer is no," he said.

"In the UAE itself, you now have Air Arabia, flydubai and RAK Airways. There could be more airlines from Saudi Arabia as well. That's life for you," he said.

Emirates has already announced the launch of direct flights to Ho Chi Minh City, Barcelona and Lisbon later this year.

What new announcements are likely in the next 12 months; here is some current thinking: In North America: Vancouver and Montreal if Emirates finally finds an agreement with the Canadian government. But most certainly Chicago and Washington DC in the near future as well as Atlanta, Boston and Miami later on.

In South America: Mexico City and Caracas. Mexico would likely be flown as an add-on to Miami.

In Europe: Brussels, Stockholm, Oslo and Kiev

In China: Chengdu and Chongqing

In Australia: Adelaide

In the Far East; Phuket, Bali (as an add on to the most recent flight to Singapore, Hanoi (assuming HCM City launches successfully).

Emirates plotting USA expansion

4 March 2011

In speeches made at the Seattle route launch Emirates' Chairman, Shaikh Ahmad Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, told Gulf News that "wwe are looking to add more flights and Washington DC is very much on our radar,"

Asked whether it could happen this year, he nodded in affirmation.

Seattle was the airline's seventh new destination in three months when flight EK229 touched down at Seattle Tacoma International Airport this week.

Seattle joins Dallas as new US routes, while other added destinations include Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, Dublin, Lusaka in Zambia and Harare in Zimbabwe.

"It's the sixth stop for us in the US and we can assure you that a lot of feasibility study has been done before arriving at the decision," said an Emirates spokesperson on the flight, who agreed it would offset restricted landing rights in Canada.

There are more details of the launch event and Emirates and Boeing's plans for a next generation 777 in this Seattle Times article: Emirates eager for updated 777.