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Democracy in Asia? Beware of Thailand

The explosive mix of street protests and veiled military threats holds the government hostage - a risk for the spread of totalitarian regimes in the whole region

by Francesco Sisci, La Stampa, Italy. 28 June 2008 - the article is interesting; assuming the failure of democracy in Thailand could somehow affect the rest of Asia is a little far fetched. Thailand's politics has been a basket case for so long already that one more coup wont change anything,

"In modern democracies, countries give themselves an electoral system, then hold elections, and the winner rules for the established period of time. Massive protests sometimes can push governments to send citizens to the ballots at an earlier date, but this is the exception to the rule. Governments brought into power by the shouting of a mob may be revolutionary, but they are not democratic.

That situation seems to occur in Thailand, where street protests have cried for new elections three times in as many years. However, the government won the elections each time and belied the protesters, who then proved to represent only a minority of society.

When a minority imposes its will on the majority, it is not a democracy—it is a dictatorship. In fact, in September 2006, after months of loud demonstrations, the military staged a coup d’etat in Thailand that did not punish the protesters but banished the ruling party, Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT). The military set new rules, disbanded the TRT, forbid Thaksin from taking part in campaigning, and called new elections for December 2007. Once again, Thaksin won the elections, with a new party that backed him, the People’s Party.

This should have settled once and for all the situation: If Thaksin managed to win an election held under rules designed to his disadvantage, certainly most Thais wanted him—or his fellow party members—to rule.

Yet, a month ago, protesters took to the streets once again, demanding the government resignation—just six months after last elections!

It is absolutely clear: The protesters represent a minority. As such, they should be allowed to voice their grievances but only as far as they do not interfere with the government functioning.

Moreover, as in any democratic country, demonstrations have to be authorized and otherwise must be forcibly removed. This is necessary to prevent the minority from prevailing on the majority and establishing a dictatorship.

This is not happening—the police seem powerless, the military refuses to intervene, and the demonstrations grow bolder by the day. The protesters insist on the same old thing: The prime minister must quit. Why should he quit? Because a mob said so. Then who should appoint the new government? Who knows. Or does somebody?

But this is not democracy. This is, once again, a coup d’etat. It does not matter whether the military rolls out tanks to banish the prime minister; it is bad enough that they tolerate a situation where a democratically elected government is held hostage to a rabble shouting empty slogans.

Not only that: Last month, the Thai generals publicly announced on television that “they did not want a coup.” This sounded like a threat—so much so that American Secretary of Defense Robert Gates immediately reacted by saying that the U.S. wanted democracy, not a coup, for Thailand.

For a few days, the generals stepped back and the protesters grew silent. But then, the escalation started all over again.

What's at stake? The power to change Thailand’s old ways. A group of entrenched interests opposes the radical reforms brought by Thaksin. He wants to foster new entrepreneurs, create new small and medium enterprises, give credit to new companies, and let old inefficient ones go bust. But those old companies hate to lose their privileges to newcomers and are trying to cling to their monopolies by any means. Three elections prove that the majority of Thailand is with Thaksin.

If the protesters and their organizers disagree, well, they can write to newspapers, quietly organize, wait for the next elections, and hope to win. But they aren't doing that—they just demand that the prime minister quit.

One can call it as he likes it, but it is, once more, an attempted coup.

If Thailand's democracy fails again, Burma, with its military regime, will be lost forever. What's more, the militaries that just went back to their barracks in the Philippines and Indonesia may be tempted to come out of them and seize power. The effort to push reforms and disarmament in North Korea would lose steam.

Western drive for democracy and human rights in China would lose credibility if America’s firm ally in the region were to slip back to chaos or military rule. Who could believe the West wants really democracy in China when it allows democratic Thai government to be toppled by a raging mob? In sum, the whole Asian political balance would be at stake.

In July 1997 the crash of the Thai stock exchange triggered the Asian financial crisis that crippled the world economy. Then, for months there had been signs of the coming catastrophe, but very few in Thailand and in the world thought that cold lead to a global disaster.

Fascism started in Italy, then a minor European power, in 1922. A group of people took the law into their own hands, donned black shirts, and marched on Rome intimidating the Italian king, the public, and even the army into surrendering power."

How oil is reshaping the aviation world

27 June 2008

With oil prices soon to hit US$150 a barrel the global airline industry is in turmoil, but not everyone is seeing it the same way.

Many airlines are staring at disaster, while some see the coming bad news as an opportunity.

That's why what is happening now to the world's airlines is more than just another steep downturn. It is a complete transformation of power and size within the industry. It may also mean the end of the low costs airline. With escalating oil prices it is impossible to now be low cost. It is just a fight to see who can keep their other costs lowest.

When the trade cycle heads back up again in perhaps a year or two, the global airline business will have taken on a very different appearance.

The US and European legacy airlines are collapsing. Most operate old, fuel-thirsty aircraft; they operate in a cut-throat market and many are still inefficient, despite having been through prolonged bankruptcy processes.

But, worst of all, demand for travel is dropping as the effects of fuel prices filter through to consumers.

If it were not for the US summer season peak period right now, where seats were already sold, the scale of fleet cutbacks and aircraft groundings would be even more aggressive than already announced. Airline share values are collapsing. US Airways, already had a severely depressed share price, which has halved again in just a month. With valuations slumping like that, something is going to have to give in the US industry. Alitalia is as good as dead.

USA based airlines will look to merge to consolidate. Northwest will die as it is absorbed into Delta. Expect United and Continental to court eachother. Suddenly Emirated moves into the top ten of global carriers by passengers carried.

The wider economic malaise is spreading quickly across the world. The airlines are beginning to absorb higher costs, but as consumer sentiment and demand deteriorate, the bottom line effects spread.

So, where airlines were previously able to cover the higher costs by adding "fuel surcharges", softer demand means that if they continue to do so, travellers simply stay on the ground. The lead indicator of forward bookings already clearly shows there is a slowing down in travel.

India's airlines, which had been experiencing rapid, but profitless growth will lose around $2.08 billion this year, even if things don't deteriorate further. And European airlines, hurting at home, are announcing that the Chinese long-haul market has slowed significantly in the past quarter. Japan, another key market in this region, is cooling fast as well.

Across the world airlines are bunkering down and preparing for the worst. Except in the Middle East. Emirates is not slowing its growth and from July the airline will acquire  two wide body aircraft a month. And that will go on for 58 months.

Emirates will be increasing its seat capacity by more than 20 per cent annually for the foreseeable future. And the airline appears able to fill these new planes in part because other airlines are being forced to cut back.

Emirates - along with its neighbouring airlines, Etihad and Qatar - are the airlines of the future.

This downturn will accelerate its future, as the carrier capitalises on its great advantages: it is based in the middle of the world, now able, with new generation aircraft, to fly non-stop to any point on the globe and sporting an established brand with decent quality product.

The magic ingredient that now allows Emirates to prosper where they couldn't before is that governments are increasingly willing to open up their markets to so-called sixth freedom airlines (which carry end-to-end passengers in transit via their home base). Now a traveller can fly from Melbourne with one-stop (Dubai) to unlikely small points like Venice. Or bigger ones like Sao Paolo.

Emirates will soon have the youngest large aircraft fleet around, when its 93 large aircraft orders (and another 50 options) arrive. Half of those are massive A380s.

These new planes have better fuel consumption and yes the airline has access to fuel sources. Emirates and the new Middle East airlines can profitably establish long-term dominance of the airline industry over the next two years, while others are forced to cut back.

This coming downturn is going to be very tough on many airlines and Emirates may emerge as the world's leading international airline before any stability returns.
 

The road hazards of the UAE

27 June 2008

It was a nice morning drive to the Northern UAE; but there are some unusual hazards both on the roads and grazing by the road side !This is the 4 lane coast road from Duabi and Sharjah to Ras Al Khaimah !

Amazing Thailand; Samak denies insanity

26 June 2008

Facing a three day no confidence debate in the Thai parliament Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has fiercely defended his mental and physical health, insisting he is fit and capable of leading the government.

His assertion came after Democrat MP Malinee Sukvejworakij, who is a doctor of medicine, told the House that Mr Samak showed symptoms of a mental deficiency and behaviour disorder. He should take leave and get treatment for the sake of the country, she said.

She held aloft a book, Phu Puay Pok Krong Loke (Sick People who Ruled the World), as the Democrats attacked Mr Samak for his ''aggressive behaviour and bad temper''.

Mr Samak fought back strongly. ''You can ask the cabinet whether I am fit to administer the country. Would you like to compete with me in a brain game, like a memory test?'' he said.

Dr Malinee said there was medical evidence to confirm that his glaring at reporters and ordering cake and red cordial drinks like a child reflected a low IQ and low emotional quotient.

She referred to Mr Samak's moody look prior to a luncheon with coalition partners early this month.

The book showed the harm that came from having sick patients as rulers, such as Adolf Hitler who had Parkinson's disease and took 28 medications a day. Putting Samak and Hitler in the same sentence is farcical; which makes this lady's whole argument invalid.

''A leader needs both mental and physical strength. Mr Samak should take a break to seek medical help,'' she said.

Mr Samak said her medical licence should be reviewed. ''It's the first time I've seen a doctor diagnose a patient on the floor of parliament.''

Mr Samak maintained he had quarterly health examinations, adding that his surname means ''good doctor''.

And he only glared at reporters to show his displeasure, he said.

''If I am crazy because I glare at reporters, then all actors in soap operas will have gone mad, they glare at each other all the time. And there's no point worrying about my liking red drinks.''

Later, Democrat MP for Nakhon Si Thammarat Theptai Senpong said Mr Samak was immature, impolite and rude to both Thai and foreign reporters.

He broke false news such as a coup in the making and a bank going under, and apologised afterward for the damage.

He said Mr Samak had been found guilty of defaming people several times.

A court gave him a two-year suspended jail term for falsely accusing former science and technology minister Damrong Latthapipat of involvement with drugs.

He also is appealing a conviction for defaming Bangkok deputy governor Samart Ratchapolsitte by saying a construction firm bought him a BMW car.

Mr Samak replied shortly, saying he felt ashamed for the people who had attacked him.

If this is the best that the Thai Democrats can do in opposition that Thailand will be governed by Samak and his friends for a long time to come.

Duck; Donald does Dubai

26 Jun3 2008

This week saw the US$5 million (Dh18.4m) “global launch” of the Dubai's Trump Tower building. The launch was held in New York where on a corner of Central Park, about 200 luminaries and media executives sipped drinks while butlers in all-white suits served trays of hors d’oeuvres.

More than the launch of a single tower, the event was part of an aggressive stepping up of Dubai into the international market. Suspend your disbelief at this point. Chris O’Donnell, the chief executive of Nakheel, took the stage after Mr Trump and cited the world’s “greatest” cities. “London, New York, Sydney,” he said. “And now, Dubai.”

Nakheel, a property developer wholly owned by an investment fund of the Dubai Government, is increasingly taking on the role of ambassador for Dubai’s construction boom. As the property market matures, Nakheel and other developers want to prove to the international investment community that its rapid growth and status as a hangout for the rich and famous is sustainable.

Their is one interesting contract - as US home prices continue to sag and the economy worsens, Dubai’s economy is growing. Yet for Americans, who are usually geographically more challenged than most, Dubai remains a hazardous place to invest.

Mr Trump would not say whether his company had made any financial investment in the new tower that will bear his name because it was a “private deal”.

His son, Eric, who is vice president of acquisitions at the Trump Organisation, said “Dubai is a developer’s dream,” adding “you can build anything you want. It really allows us to let our creative side out. The only boundaries are your imagination and the laws of physics.”

Thaksin linked to pastry-gate bribes

25 June 2008

In Bangkok the Supreme Court yesterday sentenced three attorneys for ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Pojaman to six months in prison for attempted bribery.

The court ruled that the three had conspired to undermine the judiciary's reputation and integrity by stashing Bt2 million in cash in a snack box handed to a court official on June 10.

According to the presiding judge at yesterday's trial, the bribery attempt was "a serious matter" and "grave" action that insulted the highest court.

In the meantime there is an on-going trial involving Thaksin and his wife in the Ratchadaphisek land purchase, in which the ex-premier is accused of abusing his power while in office for a sweetheart deal with the government. How pastry-gate will impact the Thaksin case is unclear but it is clear that it wont help the Shinwatras.

Thana Tansiri, the lawyer who delivered the snack box stashed with Bt1,000 notes worth around Bt2 million, was not present at yesterday's sentencing. He had asked for a trial postponement, claiming health reasons, but the judges dismissed the request on grounds that his health problems didn't appear to be serious.

The court then ordered police to issue an arrest warrant for the lawyer. I wonder of he is even in the country !

The two other convicted lawyers were Pichit Chuenban and Suphasri Sriswat.

Thana had argued in his testimony that it was a mistake, as his driver got the wrong box for him to deliver to the court official. If in doubt blame the driver. And if that was the case who was the Bt 2 million meant for!

The judges effectively called Thana a liar. They ruled the argument unlikely, saying that if Thana really intended to give chocolate or pastries he could have done it in the open in the presence of other officials, not privately with Thitipong alone.

The court believed Pichit and Suphasri were also "working closely" with Thana as all of them appeared at the court on that day.

I have to confess that I really don't understand what happened here. Thaksin really does have more brain than to use open bribery in a court. Isn't it a little strange that the whole case was resolved so quickly. Why would Thaksin's lawyers, highly educated, experienced and well aware that 2 million is chicken feed to Thailand's hi-so, would apparently try to bribe judges with such an amount in daylight?

Is this the establishment taking a hard line with Thaksin?

Dubai LCC is "FlyDubai"

25 June 2008

Dubai’s new low cost airline has been named FlyDubai. The brand identity and livery for FlyDubai will be unveiled in the coming months.

The airline's ambitions are simple; to provide no-frills flights to bring people to and from Dubai. The airline expects to launch its first flights by mid-2009.

FlyDubai will initially focus on regional flights within the GCC area and surrounding countries. The new management team at the airline have been recruiting for key positions, evaluating aircraft options and routes, working out our pricing and distribution strategy, and putting in place the structure and operational resources for the business. And presumably worrying about whether the whole thing will work given the recent escalation in oil prices.

It will be very interesting to see where the airline will fly to initially and will it compete head on with Emirates on some routes. Indeed are there some routes that Emirates will withdraw from to allow them to be taken on by FlyDubai.

Its operations will be entirely separate from Emirates Airline and Group.

EK delays west coast launch

25 June 2008

Emirates Airlines is reporting a delay in the delivery of galley equipment on four new Boeing 777-200LR’s as the reason for delaying inaugural flights from Los Angeles and San Francisco to Dubai.

Originally scheduled to start 1-Sept, the new Los Angeles launch date is 1-Oct. San Francisco service will start 20-Nov instead of 26-Oct.

The mess formerly known as Zimbabwe

23 June 2008

The run-off election will proceed this weekend. Except there will not be an opposition.

Zimbabwe's opposition leader has sought refuge at the Dutch Embassy, the Dutch Foreign Ministry said Monday, while police raided his party's headquarters and took about 60 people away.

Morgan Tsvangirai went to the embassy Sunday shortly after announcing he was withdrawing from Friday's presidential runoff against longtime leader Robert Mugabe, citing violence against opposition supporters.

"He asked to come and stay because he was concerned about his safety," ministry spokesman Rob Dekker said. There has been no request for political asylum, Dekker said.

Opposition spokesman Nqobizitha Mlilo refused to comment on the report and referred callers to The Hague.

Tsvangirai won the first round of the presidential election on March 29, but did not gain an outright majority against 84-year-old Mugabe. That campaign was generally peaceful, but the runoff has been overshadowed by violence and intimidation, especially in rural areas. Independent human rights groups say 85 people have died and tens of thousands have been displaced from their homes, most of them opposition supporters.

Tsvangirai had returned to Zimbabwe a month ago to campaign despite information his party had said it received that he was the target of a state-sponsored assassination plot.

Since then, his top deputy has been arrested on treason charges — which carry the death penalty — and Tsvangirai has been repeatedly detained by police.

He has survived at least three assassination attempts and last year he was hospitalized after a brutal assault by police at a prayer rally. Images seen around the world of his bruised and swollen face have come to symbolize the plight of dissenters in Zimbabwe.

He had applied for a new passport earlier this month and Zimbabwean officials refused, saying he lacked proper police clearance. His current passport has not expired but its pages are full.

On Sunday, Tsvangirai pulled out of the violence-wracked presidential runoff, declaring that the election was no longer credible and the loss of life among his supporters was simply too high.

Mugabe's government says Friday's vote will go ahead. The prospect of a sham election drew strong criticism from the international community.

"The Mugabe regime cannot be considered legitimate in the absence of a runoff," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a statement. "In forsaking the most basic tenet of governance, the protection of its people, the government of Zimbabwe must be held accountable by the international community."

Western powers outraged at the turmoil in Zimbabwe began pushing Monday for the U.N. Security Council to condemn the violence and insist on a fair presidential election.

Britain and France were joining the U.S. in seeking a council statement of condemnation on the Zimbabwe violence. They expect opposition from Zimbabwe's two biggest trading partners, South Africa and China. On Monday, Dumisani Kumalo, South Africa's ambassador to the U.N., said his nation was taking a wait-and-see approach to the council's deliberations.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also planned to hold an urgent briefing for reporters on the situation in Zimbabwe on Monday afternoon.

But Zimbabwe's longtime, increasingly autocratic ruler has shown little concern for the world's opinion — his police entered opposition headquarters Monday even as foreign election observers watched.

Movement for Democratic Change spokesman Nelson Chamisa said most of the people taken away from party headquarters were women and children seeking refuge after fleeing state-sponsored political violence. He said police also seized computers and furniture.

Police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena said police took 39 people from the opposition headquarters as part of an investigation into political violence. He said they had been taken to what he called a "rehabilitation center" for interviews.

After a similar raid in April, police detained scores of people they accused of being responsible for postelection violence. A court later released them.

Roy Bennett, treasurer of Tsvangirai's party, told The Associated Press in Johannesburg, South Africa that the party was not turning its back on elections.

He called on the Southern African Development Community and the African Union to launch negotiations aimed at bringing members of the opposition and moderate members of Mugabe's ZANU-PF party together in a transitional authority that would create conditions for free and fair presidential voting.

"We honestly believe that we will move forward to a new round" of elections, Bennett said.

He said Mugabe would not be welcome on the transitional authority or in a future government.

The issue of Mugabe's role is believed to have derailed previous attempts to resolve Mugabe's crisis by creating a coalition government. But Bennett said ZANU-PF would have to yield now in the face of growing international pressure. ZANU-PF, he said, risked being "totally isolated and totally rejected by the African countries as well as the world at large."

South African President Thabo Mbeki has been mediating between Mugabe and Tsvangirai for more than a year under Southern African Development Community auspices. Bennett, though, appeared to be calling for a new initiative. The Movement for Democratic Change has said Mbeki should step down, accusing him of bias in Mugabe's favor.

Mbeki's spokesman Mukoni Ratshitanga said a South African negotiating team was in Zimbabwe Monday. But Bennett said negotiations could not open until state-sponsored violence ended and Tendai Biti, the party's secretary-general, who has been jailed on treason charges since June 12, was released.

Mbeki has steadfastly refused to criticize Mugabe, saying confronting him could close the door to talks. But other African leaders have shown increasing unease, and South Africa was under pressure to speak out.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who currently holds the rotating chair of the Southern African Development Community, said Sunday a "catastrophe" was looming in Zimbabwe. He expressed frustration with Mbeki, saying he had been unable to reach him in recent days and complaining he was not sharing information about his mediation efforts.

In a statement Monday, African Union chief executive Jean Ping expressed "grave concern" at the violence and Tsvangirai's withdrawal.

Mark Malloch-Brown, Britain's minister for Africa and Asia, declared Monday that Mugabe is no longer the legitimate leader of Zimbabwe.

Malloch-Brown said Britain wanted to see a "deepening" of international sanctions against Zimbabwe, including tighter restrictions on international companies doing business with the Mugabe government and a ban on leading regime figures sending their children to be educated abroad.

Myanmar's new capital: Remote, lavish, off-limits

Monday, June 23, 2008  - International Herald Tribune

NAYPYIDAW, Myanmar: The bamboo forests and sugarcane fields that once covered the gently sloping hills here have been replaced by hulking government buildings, roads so long and straight they resemble runways and a vast construction site marked by a sign that could be read as a metaphor for the entire project: "Parliament zone. Do not enter."

Naypyidaw is Myanmar's new capital, built in secret by the ruling generals and announced to the public two and a half years ago, when it was a fait accompli.

A nine-hour drive north from the former capital, Yangon, it looks like nothing else in this impoverished country, where one out of three children is malnourished and travelers appreciate potholed pavement because many roads are nothing more than dirt tracks.

Workers in Naypyidaw are building multi-tiered, flower-covered traffic circles. In a country of persistent power shortages and blackouts, street lamps brightly illuminate the night, like strings of pearls running up and down scrub-covered hills. On the city's outskirts there is a modern and tidy zoo complete with an air-conditioned penguin house.

Foreigners rarely travel here, and the police tried to stop a reporter from taking pictures in the city, but the zoo is ready to receive them: admission is $10 for foreigners and a tenth that for Myanmar citizens.

It would be easy to write off the move to Naypyidaw as a caprice of the paranoid and secretive generals who have been in power for 46 years. But the transfer of the entire bureaucracy to this relatively remote location, where malaria is still endemic and cellular phones do not work, has drained the country's finances and widened the gulf between the rulers and the ruled.

Even the most charitable observers of Myanmar's junta portray them as out of touch. Now they are literally out of sight: the generals live and work in a guarded zone of Naypyidaw that is off limits to all but senior officers.

When Cyclone Nargis swept through the Irrawaddy Delta last month with winds up to 250 kilometers per hour, or 155 miles per hour, it killed about 130,000 people and damaged many buildings in Yangon. But the generals and civil servants ensconced in Naypyidaw felt only a zephyr, say residents. The leader of the junta, Senior General Than Shwe, did not visit the area devastated by the cyclone until May 18, more than two weeks after the storm.

Isolation appears to be what the generals want. The main reason for the move may have been that the junta felt unsafe in Yangon, which is near the sea.

"They really believe, and they have believed for a long time, that we are planning an invasion, which is nuts," said Shari Villarosa, the highest-ranking U.S. diplomat in Yangon. "We are not," she added.

The military came to power in a coup four and a half decades ago, and the prospect of being deposed by force may not be an irrational fear. People in Myanmar regularly ask foreign visitors whether the United States has plans to knock out the leadership. When British, French and U.S. warships sailed to waters off of the Myanmar coast in May to offer assistance to the victims of the cyclone, at least one Western embassy in Yangon received phone calls from excited residents.

"You're coming to save us, aren't you?" a diplomat remembers the callers saying.

Steve Marshall, the representative in Myanmar for the International Labor Organization, says the army, too, feared invasion when the ships, which have since left the coast, were stationed offshore. A colonel whom Marshall described as a senior government official told him that the military sent extra personnel to prepare for a possible landing.

"He said, 'We've had to withdraw army boys from humanitarian activities to protect the coast in case the French, British and the Americans land,"' Marshall said.

Perhaps owing to their military discipline, the generals organized Naypyidaw like a living yellow pages. There is an avenue for hotels and an area dedicated to restaurants. The government offices, built with traditional Burmese influences and Soviet-style bulkiness, are in one section. Housing for bureaucrats, partitioned and color-coded according to ministry, is nearby.

It's difficult to judge the city's size, but it feels smaller than the government's claim of one million inhabitants and 7,000 square kilometers - 10 times bigger than Singapore.

A huge pagoda is being built atop a hill, matched in size only by the Parliament complex. Myanmar's military dictatorship has no sitting Parliament, so the building, once completed, may sit empty for a while. The generals have vowed to hold "multi-party, democratic elections" by 2010, but opposition groups are skeptical that the elections, if they occur at all, will be free and fair.

The junta ignored the results of the last election, held in 1990, in which their proxy party was badly defeated by the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, the democracy leader.

That is not to say Myanmar's masses are unrepresented in Naypyidaw. Thousands of workers, many of them who look like teenagers, are helping construct the place, hacking away at embankments, carrying huge stones and shoveling dirt.

Naypyidaw, which means royal capital in Burmese, is far from the country's main population centers, but it is not totally isolated. It is 16 kilometers from the small city of Pyinmana and is near the main road and railway line between Yangon and Mandalay, the former royal capital farther to the north. But it is remote enough that most people in the country were unaware that it was being built until it was officially unveiled in November 2005.

"They built in secret," said a doctor who lives in Pyinmana. Six years ago he and other residents noticed Chinese engineers in Pyinmana's coffee shops. "Only when they started coming did we know the government was building something," the doctor said. "It was never in the papers."

Engineers from China, which has a relatively close relationship with Myanmar's leadership, are also helping build a giant hydroelectric dam on the Paunglaung River that will offer a steady supply of electricity to the new capital.

The government is widely assumed to have built Naypyidaw with revenue from the sale of timber, gems and natural gas. Last year Myanmar received $2.7 billion from Thailand for natural gas, which is piped from the Andaman Sea and keeps the lights on in Bangkok.

The total cost of building Naypyidaw remains a mystery, but Sean Turnell, an expert on the Burmese economy with Macquarie University in Sydney, says the consensus estimate is around $4 billion to $5 billion.

In a country where per capita annual income is $280 - less than 80 cents a day - opposition groups say the money could have been better spent.

The contrast between the grandiose architecture of Naypyidaw's buildings and the poverty of the surrounding countryside is jarring. Civil servants have two golf courses at their disposal, and the large zoo, which would not look out of place in Singapore or Sacramento and features dozens of animals from white tigers to zebras and kangaroos.

On a recent afternoon, the animals greatly outnumbered the visitors.

Outside the zoo's gates, farmers live in flimsy thatched huts and till rice paddies with water buffaloes. From this vantage point the zoos seem as appropriate as penguins in the tropics.

The penguins, which were donated by zoos in Thailand and China, require constant air-conditioning, and they eat fish shipped in from Thailand because they could not stomach the local river fish.

"This zoo is a government fantasy," said a woman selling souvenirs and soft drinks near the empty ticket counter.

"Business is terrible," she said. "The people around here are villagers. They don't have money to spend."

Google's costly misjudgment

21 June 2008

When YouTube was a private company people could post and view whatever they wanted. YouTube had no money and copyright owners knew they wouldn't get anything out of a lawsuit?

Not now. YouTube was acquired for US$1.65 billion by Google.

It is online video chaos, almost impossible to host; expensive to operate and it generates almost no revenue.

Since Google acquired YouTube, the company has tried desperately to make something, anything, from its $1.65 billion investment. So what to do now.  If Google is unsure of how it can turn a profit on YouTube and it still has no idea if it will be able to get a return on its investment, why shouldn't it cut its losses. This is a business and Google has a duty to its shareholders. It overpaid for a service. It is spending significant amounts of cash, including for copyright lawsuits. creating a valuable revenue stream?

Google's ad revenue on YouTube is so low, it's not even material to the financial statements. In other words, if Google is making anything with YouTube, it doesn't even matter. In the end advertisers are not willing to place ads on videos of time wasting teens.

YouTube has a massive audience that may view a few select popular videos; but videos are barely regulated; the content is hardly controlled. Why should any advertiser want to send cash to a service like that?

Google advertising needs critical mass but it also needs a target audience with known demographics. And it needs grade A, recognised brand, advertising.

Beyond that, YouTube costs Google millions each month and I'm just not sure how long the company really wants to maintain that loss until it follows a new course.

Killing YouTube would be a last resort but if it cannot attract high-paying advertisers, it's sitting on a billion dollar mistake that needs new cash every day.

For the moment YouTube is a storage space for crummy videos that have no commercial viability. For a public company that has to be unacceptable. Sure it is popular. But the people it is popular with have no intention of paying for it. Page views do not mean financial success.

How to get your UAE ID Card

21 June 2008

In April 2006 the UAE Government introduced a single national identity card. This card is compulsory for everyone living legally in the UAE, including nationals, expatriates and GCC citizens.

The Emirates Identity Authority has rolled out the first phase, as part of a three-year plan.

In the future, the cards will be used as a travel document within the GCC.

However, when the scheme was introduced for expatriates, few expatriates actually turned up to take part in the scheme.

Registration for expatriates working in government departments has now commenced on June 1, after being postponed from May 1 because of the number of Emiratis that had not finished registration.

Other sectors will need to register for the cards according to a schedule that is to be announced.

It will be mandatory for expatriates who are at least 15 years old living lawfully in the UAE to obtain a registration card.

For children below 15, registration for the Population Register and ID card programme is also mandatory, although having an ID for them is a matter of choice and is subject to a guardian's consent.

The Population Register includes a centralised database that includes the aim of upgrading governmental services and putting an end to forgery.

Registration: How to apply for an ID card (no surprise here - there will be a fee).

1. Book an online appointment

2. Before going for your appointment, fill in an online application form from the EIDA website (www.emiratesid.ae) and take a printout, using a laser printer.

3. Visit the nearest EIDA service centre and pay the registration fee, while submitting your form.

4. Allow biometric and fingerprinting to be done and get your original documents scanned.

5. You can either choose to have your National ID card sent to you by Empost or personally collect it after 3 working days.

Documents and fees

UAE Nationals: Original Family Book and Passport. Dh100
UAE Residents: Original passport. Dh100 per year of visa validity.
Lost or damaged card: Dh300
 

DSS. Dubai's shocking summer
20 June 2008

Oops. Sorry. DDS is meant to be Dubai Summer Surprises. The shocking summer refers to almost 50C temperatures from which local and expats flee to cooler climates. In the meantime along comes the yellow Michelin Man, also know as Modesch; and Modesch is seeking to bring in more than 2.5 million visitors, an increase of 10 per cent over last year. Modesch is named after the Arabic word for amazing, incredible and unexpected.

What are they all coming here for? Sure there are summer sales in the malls. But that is it. By next month you really do not want to go outside in the middle of the day and even night time is simply too hot. There was a honeymoon couple on the plane to Birmingham this morning; they had honeymooned in Dubai. Must have come here for a Modesch!

The mascot is all over town. The Executive Director of DSS is a little delusional believing that Modesch is an independent brand that may become global very soon. I doubt he even gets as far as Abu Dhabi.

The Dubai Summer Surprises (DSS) was launched in the summer of 1998 by the Dubai government in order to promote Dubai as a family holiday destination. It lasts for for 10 weeks from the end of July until September. The festival has a family emphasis focusing on both fun and education. Events are organised by various government departments, in association with the shopping malls, hotels, and sponsoring companies.

EK update

June 17 2008

A few small pieces of news from EK, Emirates airline.

Emirates will operate its last commercial service to Alexandria (HBE) in Egypt on 9 September 2008. Thereafter the route will be discontinued. Its most likely the victim of Emirates ongoing focus on profitability. HBE was probably not a profitable route.

Its a fair bet that the route will likely be re-started by the new Dubai LCC sometime in 2009.

The A330-200 from the route will be used on a fourth daily Delhi (DEL) service. The flight will be started effective 26 October 2008. Flight details:

EK516 DEP DXB 1010 ARR DEL 1445
EK517 DEP DEL 1555 ARR DXB 1815

The 1 December 2008 luanch of flights to Durban has been postponed. Probably due to delays in the arrival of new fitted out 777s. One was needed to free up the A330 for the Durban launch!
 

Brits warn of UAE terror attack

June 17 2008

Intelligence gathered by MI6 suggests an attack on Dubai could be imminent. The intelligence was analysed by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre in London before a decision was taken by the Foreign Office to warn of the threat.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office has raised the level of threat faced by the United Arab Emirates from "general" to "high," warning travelers: "attacks could be indiscriminate and could happen at any time, including in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travelers such as residential compounds, military, oil, transport and aviation interests.

"You should maintain a high level of security awareness, particularly in public places."

Over a million British visitors travel to the UAE every year and 120,000 British nationals live and work in the country.

There have been rumours that Dubai has remained relatively untroubled despite its reputation as the hedonists playground, because al-Qa'eda uses it for money laundering.

One of the September 11 pilots, Marwan al-Shehhi, who flew United Airlines 175 into the second of the twin towers, was from the small emirate of Ras al Khaimah, but the country as a whole has been relatively free from terrorism.

In 1999 explosives were found in a major shopping mall in Dubai, while in 2002 an al-Qa'eda suspect was arrested, thought to be in the planning stages of an attack.

The risk was last assessed as "high" in October 2007 and Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are also on the highest level but neighbours Oman and Qatar remain at "general" risk.

The FCO has four levels of threat: high, general, underlying and low.

It uses a number of sources to make the assessment, including the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, MI5 and MI6, reports from diplomats and information from other countries.

Sources said there had been no reported incidents in the Emirates and the rise in threat level was the result of intelligence received.

The FCO said the "vast majority of visits to the UAE are trouble-free."

The British Government was apparently been slow to admit the threat, in part because of significant business ties, including the arms industry, tourism and real estate, and in part because of co-operation over terrorism.

In reality the UAE is a soft target because of the hospitality it shows towards foreign investors and tourists.
 

Winding up the Aussies

June 17 2006

It always amuses me when the Aussies go on and on about 'whingeing poms', but even now a whole nation has still not recovered from a series of cricket defeats that tool place 75 years ago when Douglas Jardine led an England size that used its fast bowlers to deliver the Bodyline series. A tactic which was perfectly legal at the time. Jardine was the creator of and a chief protagonist in the hugely controversial Bodyline Ashes series of 1932/33. He was one of the coldest, shrewdest captains in the history of the game, not always well liked or regarded but still undeniably successful.

Jardine as captain sounds more than a little reminiscent of Australia's most successful modern era captain, Steve Waugh.

One of the earliest books my Dad bought me (I must have been about 10 years old) was a biography of Jardine. Rivetting.

Jardine died a young man, fifty years ago this week. This was his obituary in the Guardian newspaper written by Sir Neville Cardus, a man widely acknowledged as the greatest of all cricket writers. Cardus wrote on cricket and music for the Guardian between 1919 and his death in 1975. He was knighted in 1967.

From the Guardian newspaper vault: Neville Cardus on the death of Douglas Jardine

DR Jardine was one of the strongest-minded captains ever to command an England eleven. He asserted his character and leadership in Australia in 1932-3. Bradman at the time was at the height of his supremacy over all bowlers. So long as he remained tyrannically the master-batsman, almost certain to score a century, even a double or triple century, in every Test match, England could never hope to defeat Australia in a rubber. So the so-called "body-line" method of attack was put into force, to reduce Bradman to near-normal prowess and efficiency.

Jardine boldly exploited this method, which could scarcely be encouraged ethically. The method involved fast bowling directed to rise shoulder or rib high, pitched on or outside the leg-stump, with some eight fieldsmen placed on the leg side, three close up round about the batsman's left trouser pocket. At the time, I described the method of body-line attack as the "Jardinian theory": it was an attack designed to show ruthlessly that none but the fittest could hope to survive.

It had the immediate effect of reducing Bradman's batting average from the nineties to the fifties. Larwood was Jardine's main executive agent, and none but a bowler of Larwood's pace and accuracy could have succeeded with the method.

Jardine stood his ground in the teeth of all Australia's rages of protest. At Adelaide, Woodfull was hit over the heart by a ball pitched on the offside to the orthodox offside field. Then, according to plan already arranged, Jardine switched the field to leg. He would not allow any circumstance, not even one demanding some humane if only temporary consideration, to interfere with policy. The bruised Woodfull had now definitely to look to his ribs, not to say his cranium. The Adelaide ground, naturally enough, quickly sounded outraged pandemonium. Even Whitehall, far away in London feared a disruption of Colonial relations.

When Jardine and Larwood returned to England they found that what was good (or bad) enough in the tend of the barbarian would not do in the home of the Establishment. One or two counties at once threatened not to renew fixtures with Nottinghamshire if Larwood and Voce persisted with the "body line" specific.

But in the English season of 1933, Jardine himself scored a century at Manchester for England against the West Indies, and treated a fast leg-theory attack of Constantine and Martindale with the loftiest distain of which his physical height, his long nasal sniff and his Harlequin cap could express, singly and in combination.

He was born in October 1900, in Bombay, and his father was in his day nearly equally famous for a while for a brilliant 140 in the university match of 1892. The son went to Winchester, and it must be admitted that in subsequent years he interpreted the motto, "Manners maketh man" with uncompromising masculinity.

At Oxford his cricket developed with characteristic patience, but in 1921 he scored 96 not out against Warwick Armstrong's invincible team, though Gregory bowled only ten overs in the match and McDonald did not play. Still, here were signs of the wrath to come sooner or later to the ancient enemy. In 1927 he came to the honour of a century for the Gentlemen v the Players at Lord's, when the next highest innings on his side was 46.

It is a testimony to the dominating sense of his presence, if felt only for a moment or two, that he is now regarded part of Surrey's cricket history, as well as England's, despite that after one or two active seasons in the 1920s, his appearances at the Oval and elsewhere were comparatively few and intermittent. In one of his few full seasons' for Surrey - 1926 - he scored 1,050 runs, average 43.75.

He twice was one of the England team in Australia, first with APF Chapman's side of 1928-9 where the result was four victories to one for England, as subsequently happened when Jardine made himself notorious if not immortal.

His Test match innings in Australia were registered in the score-sheet as follows: 35, 65*, 28 run out, 62, 33, 1, 98, 19, 0, 27, 1, 0, 3, 56, 46, 24, 18, 24. But the scorers could only indicate superficially the value of an innings by Jardine; his influence was psychological.

He was a tall hard boned personality, having none of the unction often associated in his period with cricket. His was a realpolitik. He determined in the early 1930s to wrest back the "ashes" from Australia, and to put Bradman in a reasonable, if still high, place. All the howls and winds of the world would not deter him.

As a batsman he was upright and unbending, strong in defence and to the onside. His hat was scrupulously straight. The fastest bowling could not hurry him. His batting, indeed, was like the man himself - calm, well-bred, not given to rhetoric, common-sensed, and imperturbable. He had, off the field, a canny wit and gifts for fellowship. On the field, even a Harlequin cap did not lighten or brighten his pervading air of relentless purpose. Against Australia he played cricket to win. He was perhaps the first to lead the reaction against Edwardian gesture and romance and the humbug of "may the best side win."
 

Potash mine future in doubt

The Nation
Published on May 29, 2008

Why is this on my news page? Because almost three years of my life was spent working on this project. And after the company was sold to Italian-Thai Development in 2006 there was a reasonable confidence that the project would move ahead. Then came the September 2006 coup. And then nothing.....

This is a project that creates jobs in huge numbers; that generates real sustainable wealth for Thailand; and that properly managed is far safer than crossing any road in Thailand. Further the Thai government has a revenue royalty and a free carry shareholding.

What stops the project is the possible loss of votes from a few overseas sponsored (by guess who?) NGOs.

This project is far to valuable to be left undeveloped.

"No permit after decade of opposition

Development of the Udon Potash Project faces a bleak future after more than 10 years of opposition by non-governmental organisations, and the community, have stalled the issuance of a production licence.

Asia Pacific Potash Corp (APPC), which holds the concession for the potash mining project, is now a 75-per-cent-owned indirect subsidiary of Italian-Thai Development, a major local construction company.

An industry source said progress in getting the mining permit was hard to come by because many groups lacked an understanding of underground mining, and potash miners around the world felt threatened by the entry of a strong rival.

Not many countries operate potash mines. Canada, the United States and Russia do. The development of the project would thrust the local potash export industry to the forefront of the world's biggest growing market for fertiliser products - the Asia-Pacific region.

"It's possible that all the big players don't want this project to move forward because they're afraid of losing the Asian market to Thailand. Obviously, APPC will enjoy a freight advantage over its competitors, which export to this region," the source said.

In 2003, the company lodged its mining lease application, which allows the development of an underground mine covering 75,000 rai. The Udon Potash Project has reserves of 100 million tonnes. It expects to produce 2 million tonnes per year of high-quality potash.

The project still faces some resistance from NGOs and local people although the company has pledged to follow their demands, including re-submitting the environmental impact assessment. About 2,000 villagers are estimated to live within the mining lease area.

In requesting a review of the EIA's approval, the NGOs and community expressed concern over salt emissions from the potash-mining operation because Thailand has no standard to regulate such salt pollution.

However, APPC insisted that the salt produced from this project would be only half of Canadian standards. It had also prepared control measures, for example, enclosing all production equipment and conveyors on site and installing monitoring equipment around the project area.

Italian-Thai Development's president, Premchai Karnasuta, has said he tried to negotiate with the NGOs and the community and accepted all of their demands. "We accepted that our costs will increase but that will better for our business, the country and local community," he said.

The Department of Primary Industries and Mines plans to educate the public about underground mining by making a television documentary.

"The resistance is mainly caused by a lack of understanding among many groups, which are unfamiliar with underground mining. We try to show them that both underground mining and the community can be developed together," Anusorn Nuangpholmak, director-general of the department, said last week.

"Our fertiliser industry grows quite slowly compared with growth in demand here. Even though we have our own resources, we have to import high-priced potash to make fertiliser," he said.

A geology study has estimated Thailand's potash reserves at 407 billion tonnes. Five potash projects are seeking exploration licences, while two - Asean Potash Mining Project and Udon Potash Project - are waiting for production licences.

Potash is one of the costliest raw materials for making fertiliser because of tight demand and supply in the global market. Global potash demand is 50 million tonnes per year, equivalent to worldwide potash production. Potash fetches about US$1,000 (Bt32,300) per tonne."

Pastry-gate

14 June 2008

It is hard to keep Thaksin off the front pages of the Bangkok newspapers. But the latest Bangkok scandal smacks of an ineptitude that Thaksin and friends could not sink to. There is however a growing nastiness in the ongoing power struggle.

What actually happened?  Apparently, two men came to the Supreme Court's political section around noon on Tuesday and at the end of a brief meeting with general affairs officials, handed them the bag and said something ambiguous like "Go on and share it". It was apparently a bag containing pastries.

After the duo left, the bag's contents were examined in the presence of a judge, who either was called into the room or went there out of curiosity. In addition to the pastries there was Baht 2 million. By Thai standards not a large bribe - only some US$65,000

The court say that they documented and photographed the evidence. 

The court have said that one  of the men was a lawyer who "had been seen working on a case at the political section". The other was thought to be a relative of a politician.
The link to Thaksin is very tenuous.  The only connection so far is that the incident took place on the day his lawyer was scheduled at the court on the Ratchadaphisek land-deal case. Thaksin's spokesman Pongthep Thepkanchana promptly described the incident as a joke. Yesterday, Thaksin's lawyer in the case, Pichit Chuenban, dismissed any involvement, saying he "wouldn't have even thought about it".

Was this a blatant bribery attempt, or a smear campaign against the court, or an attempt to discredit a certain politician.

Who knows.

European disunion

14 June 2008

The Irish had the decency to put a nail into the European constitution. But in doing so they have left Europe weaker and without a clear direction.

The Lisbon treaty required the ratification of every EU member, It was only Ireland (Eire) that required a public referendum. Other countries are saying yes through their respective parliaments.

The Lisbon treaty is intended to simplify how the European Union will be run in future. Here are its main points. It was a toned down rewrite of the European constitution that both French and Dutch voters has said "no" to.
 

So what did the Lisbon treaty propose:

Burying the constitution - If ratified, the Lisbon treaty would replace the aborted draft constitution voted down by French and Dutch referendums in 2005. The new treaty is more modest: it would amend previous EU treaties and drop some of the symbolic elements of the constitution, such as formally recognising the EU flag and anthem.

Reformed presidency and foreign policy chief - The EU would have a president for two-and-a-half-year terms (the present system rotates the presidency between member states on six-month terms) and a more powerful foreign policy chief who answers to member governments. That person would control the EU's aid budget and its extensive network of diplomats and civil servants.

Smaller European commission - The EU executive would be cut from the current 27 members to 18 as of 2014. Commissioners would be selected on a rotation system among the states, and would sit for five-year terms.

Increased power for the European parliament - The European parliament would get more power to influence or reject EU legislation, especially in justice and interior affairs. The EU assembly would have its membership capped at 751 members, reduced from the current 785.

Increased majority voting - The treaty would mean EU member states could take decisions by majority rather than by unanimous agreement in 50 new areas including judicial and police cooperation, education and economic policy. Britain and Ireland would get opt-outs in judicial and police areas. Unanimity would still be required in foreign and defence policy, social security, taxation and culture.

Fundamental rights - A 50-article charter contains a list of well-established rights, such as freedom of speech and religion, but also includes the right to shelter, education, collective labour bargaining and fair working conditions. Worried by the impact on business and their legal systems, Britain and Poland obtained opt-outs.

To date eighteen member states have ratified the Lisbon treaty through their parliaments. But the Irish rejection was emphatic yesterday. So do the other nations forge ahead and leave Ireland to work out its own relationship with the Lisbon arrangements. But Ireland has already opted out of large chunks of the treaty, such as defence, justice and home affairs. It is not clear what more it could withdraw from.

Gordon Brown will be under pressure to to abandon the treaty's ratification by the UK. This is now in the final stages of parliament.

It may now be that the prospects of creating a Europe with a strong voice and distinct leadership are now very limited. Is the EU to be  a patchwork of 27 intergovernmental alliances. If integration by grand constitution is dead then business will be conducted by smaller groups of countries. This is not a union that will find it easy to accept Turkey as a member, defend its common interests against Russia, or speak with one voice about the Middle East, Burma, Zimbabwe, global warming, trade or anything else that matters.
 

The airline industry mess

13 June 2008

The airline industry is in  an oil price driven mess. The only airlines likely to benefit from this are the new middle east carriers with young airline fleets, international networks and low operating costs.

The domestic US industries are suffering. Day by day the older full service airlines look more and more like the low costs carriers.

Fuel prices are up 100% over this time a year ago. In the USA the airlines are cutting staff, routes and costs while creating new fees at the same time. United Airlines is charging $15 for the first checked bags and $25 for the second. This is about an industry in survival mode. American already does the same on Sunday, U.S. Airways does it next month.

And the latest from U.S. Airways is a $2 fee even for tea, coffee or a soda. More for alcohol. U.S. Airways announced other changes too: buying a ticket by phone will go up to $25. What else can they charge for? Use of the washroom ?

US Air as an example is also cutting 1,700 jobs and shrinking its fleet. It will return ten planes, canceling leases on two more, and plans to park more through 2010.

What else are airlines doing?  Weight loss is one. Lighter planes burn less fuel.

Emirates removed the footrests in economy. Airlines are power-washing jet engines more often to get rid of grime, carrying less water for the faucets and toilets, and replacing passenger seats with lighter models. Japan Airlines has suspended beer sales on domestic flights, except in first class, for a savings of 210 pounds, or 94 kilograms.

Every increase in the price of fuel increases the pressure on the carriers, which pump about 7,000 gallons, or 26,500 liters, into a 737 airliner and as much as 60,000 gallons in a 747.

Airlines are raising fares and adding surcharges and fees as fast as they can, but, at a certain point, passengers stay home. That is why the carriers are looking for any new savings they can find.

Retiring older planes helps but means reductions in services. Northwest Airlines is retiring DC-9 jets it has used for decades. American Airlines is grounding some MD-80s, while United Airlines is parking six 747 jets.

Some airlines are flying their planes slower in order to save fuel, for example, 480 miles per hour, or 770 kilometers per hour, instead of a cruising speed of 500 miles per hour. Singapore Airlines is among those cutting flight speeds, and plans to find more efficient routes.

Some of the weight saving measures sound desperate. Up in the cockpit, Delta is studying whether it is feasible to divide the heavy pilot manuals required on each flight between the captain and first officer, so pilots are not toting duplicate sets of five or six books that each weigh about a pound and a half. Japan Airlines is reducing the number of newspapers and magazines on international flights, which achieve a 50-pound reduction in aircraft weight. The Japanese carrier is also using smaller cutlery used on international flights, cutting the weight of each piece an average of 0.07 ounces.

Water is another target. Northwest is putting 25 percent less water for bathroom faucets and toilets on its international flights. Most planes had been returning from long flights with their tanks half full, an unneeded expense given that water weighs 8.3 pounds a gallon and a gallon of jet fuel weighs 6.8 pounds.

Northwest argues that every 25 pounds of weight that is removed saves $440,000 a year. Cathay's fleet is using luggage containers made of Twintex. The new containers are about 50 pounds lighter than the older ones made of aluminum.

Airlines also are trying to cut fuel consumption at the airport. Most now run their planes' electrical systems at the gate by plugging them into outlets, rather than running the engines.

Many jets now taxi out to the runway on one engine, saving full power until in position for takeoff.

Meanwhile as the older airlines of the US and Europe struggle the likes of Emirates, Qatar and Etihad forge ahead.

Toothless UN watches Mugabe's crimes

14 June 2008

The UN under Ban Ki Moon is looking more and more toothless by the day. The run off election for the President of Zimbabwe should never have been necessary. Mugabe lost the election. There can be little doubt of that. And he lost convincingly. But in the month long count enough of his opponent's votes (Morgan Tsvangirai) were lost to give Mugabe a second chance.

Tsvangirai has been arrested three times while campaigning for the run off vote on June 27. 

The Secretary general of the Movement for Democratic Change, Tendai Biti is apparently to be charged with treason and could face a death sentence after he was earlier held on arrival at Harare International Airport from neighbouring South Africa.

How is it possible to have a fair election.

All relief agencies have been banished from Zimbabwe. Food Aid is now given out by the government in return for votes.

The UN has suddenly woken up to just how bizarre this election is and  Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Haile Menkerios will visit the country from June 16-20.

The visit by Mr Menkerios, an Eritrean in charge of African affairs for the UN political department, follows talks Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon held with Mr Mugabe at the world food summit in Rome last week.

The UN has a permanent presence in Zimbabwe but Mr Menkerios's trip represents the world body's deepest involvement so far in the African nation's recent political crisis. Zimbabwe is a UN member state. It should be censured and the UN should insist on a monitoring team being sent to oversee the elections. Not a chance.

Western diplomats said they had wanted a broader discussion of Zimbabwe at the UN but that has been opposed by South Africa, Russia and China. No surprise there.

Emirates crew get a new look

12 June 2008

With the launch of the A380 aircraft on August 1st, Emirates has decided to freshen up their image, and give all their crew a new uniform. This will appear first on the A380 but by mid 2009 it should be worn by all cabin and ground crews.

The guys will turnout in chocolate and beige! The girls see less of a change; a few red flashes here and there, a new hat and bag! The look appears more modern. The tabards (aprons) are gone and have been replaced by the new rather baggy looking waistcoats. The current image was designed back in 1997. Time for a change. EK designs its uniforms in house. This is not a Balmain design like SQ and definately not the glamour look of Korean Airlines, But it is distinctive; widely recognised and practical.

While the A380 crew will launch the uniform from 01 August 2008, the remainder of the company will be strutting their stuff from the New Year. There are ober 9,000 crew to be fitted with new uniforms that will use over 500km of cloth!

Here are a few of the first promotional pictures.


Emirates A380 arrives early in New York

10 June 2008

Originally Emirates announced the launch of its A380 flights to New York from 1 October. Many people rushed to book seats on the inaugural flight. But Emirates has now announced that the first commercial flight of the A380 will be on Aug 1 to New York.

The flight details for August 1st and 3rd are:

DXB-JFK on 1 August: EK 3801 Dep: 11:00 Arr: 16:45

JFK-DXB on 1 August: EK 3802 Dep: 21:00 Arr: 17:45+1

The A380 will be a 3rd flight Aug 1 and on Aug 3. After that, the A380 WILL replace the 77W on EK 201/202 3x a week until Oct 1 when it will replace 77W EK201-EK202 daily. Expect some surprises from EK on Aug 1-3.

The airline’s expansion has been hampered for two years because of production delays with the Airbus A380, the world’s largest commercial aeroplane. The airline has ordered 58 of the twin-deck aircraft, and should receive its first delivery on July 28.

The August launch represents the first announcement of the A380 service being ahead of schedule, following technical difficulties that delayed production and forced Airbus to announce successive delays.

Emirates will become the first airline to serve the Americas using an A380 with a 14-hour, non-stop flight to New York’s JFK Airport. It expects to receive its next four A380s by March next year, all in a three-class, 489-seat configuration.

The additional aircraft are to be used on its route to London Heathrow, beginning on Dec 1, as well as its route to Auckland and Sydney, with an expected date of introduction of Feb 1 next year.
Emirates plans two other configurations for its A380, including a three-class, 517-seat version and a high-density, two-class version with more than 600 seats.

Doha-based Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi are two fast-growing Gulf-based international airlines that have also purchased the A380 to offer more seats on long-haul routes. Qatar Airways will introduce five A380s beginning in 2012, while Etihad has deferred delivery of its four A380s from next year to 2013.

Where next for Hillary

7 June 2008

Today in Washington Hillary Clinton endorsed her rival Barack Obama for President of the United States.

"This isn't exactly the party I had planned," she said, as she praised Obama. "Today, as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him. I endorse him and will throw my full support behind him," she said.

This was the passing of a generation in Democratic politics. Clinton was first lady for the eight years of the Bill Clinton presidency. Clinton lost to a younger politician running on a message of change.

The challenge after such a long and expensive Democratic campaign is how does Obama unite his party behind his bid to be America's first black president. Does he really need to take Clinton as his VP running mate. I hope note. He needs to appoint his own man or woman. Appoint Hillary as his VP running mate and he gets Bill Clinton as well. Too many egos running the country. This is not a dream ticket; it is a nightmare.

The Democratic party must quickly heal itself after a bitter, divisive nomination contest and unite against McCain.

What role will Hillary Clinton will play. To many of Clinton's huge support base her name on the ticket is the minimum price Obama must pay to be assured of their votes in November. But Obama should not want Clinton in his White House. She would be a potentially under-mining figure and there is little to suggest that the two have warm feelings for each other.

But Obama desperately needs her genuine support. Clinton did garner some 18 million votes. Obama needs that support. He needs to play the peacemaker and could offer her a lead role in the Senate, perhaps spearheading efforts to get a healthcare plan to all Americans.

He could also help her pay het huge campaign debt from his own fundraising efforts.

The election is in November; It will be a fascinating five months.

Crude reality

7 June 2008

Using the tagline from an entry on my tagboard we are in to some harsh economic realities: oil prices leaped to another record high yesterday; fuelled (forgive the pun) as Israel warned Iran about its nuclear sites and the dollar slumped on news of the biggest jump in US unemployment for 22 years.

Global crude ended a run of lower prices as it jumped by more than $11 a barrel to more than $139 - it has risen more than $17 in two days. The price eventually settled at $138.54. On Wednesday the price had fallen to as low as $122. Where to next week. How about US$150 by the end of the week.

Already jittery oil markets were sent into spasm by remarks from Israel's transport minister that an attack on Iranian nuclear sites looked "unavoidable". Any attack on the country would threaten supplies from the whole region. Would the USA be drawn into this dispute. Inevitably. As the USA is Israel's staunchest ally. And what does that mean for Middle East stability?

Earlier in the day the dollar had fallen against the euro partly on speculation that the European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates to curb inflation. Then markets were rocked by a report showing US unemployment suffered its biggest monthly rise for 22 years.

Shares dived after the US unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 5.5%, intensifying fears that the world's biggest economy is sliding into recession. The Dow Jones industrial average lost nearly 400 points, more than 3%, to close at 12,209. In London, the FTSE 100 closed the week down 1.5%, or 88 points, at 5,906.

The US unemployment rate jumped from 5% in April to 5.5%, the biggest rise since February 1986 and the highest rate since October 2004. As stocks tumbled, so did the dollar, which shed nearly a cent against the euro.

The overall US trend is clearly weakening and this will continue to depress consumer spending. The Fed is also unlikely to be able to raise US interest rates to prop up the dollar and rein in inflation.

Tradition versus modernity keep Thai politics in turmoil

Jonathan Manthorpe Vancouver Sun

Friday, June 06, 2008

Five months after democracy returned to Thailand following a military coup in 2006, the country remains in the grip of political upheaval.

Thousands of protesters are camped on the streets outside the parliament buildings demanding the removal of the People's Power Party government of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej.

They also want corruption charges pressed against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who recently returned from exile after being ousted in the coup.

Thailand's economic indicators are gyrating in response to the uncertainty and to cap it all off there are rumours -- strenuously denied by senior generals -- that another military coup is in the offing.

So why has the coming to power of a freely elected government not brought stability?

The answer is that the underlying causes of the 2006 coup are still unresolved.

Since Thaksin, a former policeman who became Thailand's richest businessman after building a communications technology empire, was elected prime minister in 2001, there has been a sometimes bitter competition to influence and define the future political landscape of the country.

Thaksin is a revolutionary in the modern history of Thai politics. He is a populist who tried to bring business principles to the workings of government and who exhibited scant respect for the elites that traditionally run Thailand's government. Those elites are made up of people and parties with strong loyalty to King Bhumipol Adulyadej, the palace hierarchy and the military.

What has brought the clash of ideas to a head is that the king is 80 years old and in poor health.

In theory he should be succeeded by his son Crown prince Maha Vajiralongkorn.

But unlike King Bhumipol, who is universally respected, Vajiralongkorn's lurid lifestyle and arrogant ways have made him widely feared and disliked.

His sister, Princess Sirindhorn, on the other hand, is not only very popular, she has been a lecturer at Chulachomklao Military Academy for more than 20 years. This means that a couple of generations of military officers have taken her classes and, it can be assumed, a high proportion acquired loyalty to her.

The reality of the succession is that it will be decided by the royal Privy Council and the senior military officers. Parliament will only be called in later to approve what has been arranged.

The 2006 coup was launched after Thaksin started appointing his own loyalists to senior military positions and thus manoeuvring to influence the royal succession.

So when palace loyalist and Army Commander-in-Chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratklin launched the coup it was with some certainty of approval by Prem Tinsulanonda, King Bhumipol's senior aide who is also a former prime minister and former commander of the military.

The speed with which the palace conferred its blessing on Sonthi's coup clearly expressed approval of his motives for ousting Thaksin, if not provable foreknowledge of what was afoot.

Prem and the palace hierarchy do not want Thaksin influencing the succession and thus the power of the establishment elites in Thailand's political future.

Their problem, however, is that Thaksin, though he has many grievous faults, remains very popular.

The military and its palace backers tried to remove Thaksin from the political scene by levelling corruption charges against him and banning his Thai Rak Thai party.

But when the coup leaders were pressed at the end of last year to restore democracy, a new formation, the People's Power Party, emerged. This is clearly a front for Thaksin, who remains silent in the background. But in the election campaign everyone understood that a vote for the PPP was a vote for Thaksin, which is why the PPP won control of the government.

So Thaksin is still there despite the coup, but now he is not a clear target. He lurks somewhere in the shadows behind the prime minister.

What has brought the protesters out onto the streets are moves by the Samak government to amend the constitution put in place by the military. These plans appear to undercut the legal basis for charging Thaksin with corruption.

Most demonstrators are from the People's Alliance for Democracy, an urban party that dislikes Thaksin's appeal to the rural poor.

The PAD's demonstrations in 2006 provided the excuse for the coup, and it is natural to wonder if that is the agenda again.

The reality of Myanmar

6 June 2008 - Amnesty International

The Burmese Junta remains paranoid and the rest of the world seems happy to let the junta continue to ignore the desperate plight of its people.

The New Light of Myanmar accused foreign media of running "groundless news stories with the intention of tarnishing the image of Myanmar and misleading the international community into believing that cyclone victims do not receive any assistance."


"Myanmar's government is keeping aid from reaching survivors of Cyclone Nargis and stepping up efforts to force them out of emergency shelters, according to new research published by Amnesty International. The government's actions place tens of thousands of already vulnerable survivors at increased risk of death, disease and hunger.

On 20 May, Myanmar’s government, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), announced an end to the rescue and relief phase of the disaster response and the beginning of the reconstruction phase. Since then, the SPDC has launched a campaign to force homeless cyclone survivors out of government and unofficial resettlement camps.

The authorities have targeted schools and monasteries, as both were used as polling stations for the delayed May constitutional referendum, and because the school term began on 2 June.

Most of the displaced survivors cannot return to their original homes as large swathes of the Irrawaddy delta, which bore the brunt of the cyclone, remain largely uninhabitable.

"After surviving the cyclone's fury, thousands of cyclone survivors are now suffering at the hands of the SPDC," said Benjamin Zawacki, Amnesty International's Myanmar researcher.

Amnesty International’s findings, which include eyewitness accounts and interviews with people with first-hand information from cyclone-hit areas, highlight the urgent need for the SPDC and international donors to adopt human rights standards as safeguards in the disaster response.

Amnesty International is also concerned about aid delivery. On 16 May, the SPDC mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar pledged to "conduct investigation into the cases [of misappropriation of aid] to expose the offenders and take punitive action against them in accordance with the law." Amnesty International has welcomed such steps and calls on the SPDC to strictly monitor the distribution of aid by its officials and to investigate any allegations of theft, abuse of power or other diversion of aid.

"Given the SPDC’s long track record of abuses, humanitarian agencies should be especially alert to the SPDC diverting or obstructing their aid," said Zawacki, who has been in the region for the past month gathering information from the affected areas.

Amnesty International has confirmed more than 30 instances and accounts of people being forcibly removed from emergency shelters in monasteries, schools and other places.

In the last two weeks, the relocation campaign has become more systematic and widespread. The authorities have forcibly relocated people out of Maungmya, Maubin, Pyapon, and Labutta, where they had been originally displaced, back to their original villages.

Of the 45 camps that existed in Pyapon, by 28 May only three remained. On 23 May, authorities in Yangon forcibly removed more than 3,000 cyclone survivors from an official camp in Shwebaukan in North Dagon Myo Thit, and from an unofficial camp in State High School No. 2 in Dala township.

Abuses also include confiscation and misuse of aid. Amnesty International has received over 40 reports or accounts of aid being confiscated by government officials, diverted or withheld instead of being handed to cyclone survivors.

Despite statements against such conduct by senior SPDC leadership, local officials can act with impunity. For example, Amnesty International received eyewitness testimony that on 26 May, at the Pan Hlaing bridge in Yangon’s Hlaing Tharyar township, Police Major U Luu Win stopped 48 trucks carrying supplies from private Myanmar donors. As of 1 June, the police had not released the trucks."

Thaksin's amazing insight into his City dream

6 June 2008

From "This is London" - The London Evening Standard. Some of this is brilliant; some of it verging on delusional. But like most things; if you say it often enough it may just be true!

"Tales of the unexpected: lunching with the former prime minister of Thailand in China and hearing in detail, for the first time, his plans to sign Ronaldinho for Manchester City.

Let's clear up the choice of location first. Why here in Beijing instead of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai homeland? It's safer this way (we don't need to be shadowed by his personal armed guard the size of a football team nor to perfect the trick of booking a series of restaurants for the same time, then swapping at the last moment so his enemies don't provide an alternative ending to the cheese and port).

'Just now, my wife asks me to stay away and, if I have to go to Thailand, not to stay for long,' explains Thaksin. 'We have intelligence that there may be more danger.'

He has survived three car bomb attacks and six assassination attempts. 'I should be a man who drives around in a nice sports car, not an armoured car,' he adds with a smile.

Even here, almost five hours of flying from his home, the Lincoln Navigators of his security unit skillfully flank Thaksin's car on his way to a business meeting.

After avoiding real bombs in the Far East and dodging verbal grenades in the North West, where the Manchester locals have been restless, losing 8-1 to Middlesbrough on the last day was not how the season was meant to end.

Now Mark Hughes has been captured from Blackburn, an appointment that will surely go some way to restoring calm. Well, at least until the Ronaldinho carnival comes to town.

Thaksin has invited Sportsmail for this rare private audience at a secluded escape about 50 minutes outside China's Olympic City. The exact location is best kept a secret, just in case. You never know who might be reading.

Mark Hughes is an excellent appointment. The players need to be motivated,' says Thaksin

Today, he wants to explain for the first time why you would give a new manager more than £50million, see him complete the double over Manchester United, finish ninth in the Barclays Premier League, qualify for the UEFA Cup (admittedly through the back door) and then axe him after one season.

Also, in this wide-ranging interview, Thaksin - I am advised to call him Dr Thaksin before we begin - talks about the ambitious pursuit of the former world player of the year, the future of Micah Richards and his long-term ambitions for Manchester City, including the appointment of new executive chairman Garry Cook from Nike.

Cook may not score goals, select the team or even yet support the club (he's a Birmingham fan by birth) but Thaksin believes he is a 'special signing, a football man who will inspire great things by leading from the front'.

Any more special ones planned, Doc? 'Ronaldinho - you know, he is a great player. Whatever the club in your heart, you would want to see this player in England, wouldn't you?'
True, but this is crazy talk. Who will pay the wages? 'It is not a risk. Sponsors will contribute. It will not damage our wage structure. Garry and Pairoj, my chief advisor, they are taking care of this transfer. I am very excited.

'I am 59 next birthday, so I am not a man who can wait for many years to see my dreams come true.'

How will City know the Brazilian doesn't just want to take the money? 'Ronaldinho is 28. He has much still to offer, he is a star. You need a combination of new players, existing players, quality, young and old.

'I admit also you need a player who is more than just winning the match. You need a star who can play on the pitch, but who can achieve much more for the club. Ronaldinho is that player.

'I am hearing good things about his hunger. I have spoken to his brother (his agent). Ronaldinho wants the new challenge, the chance to play his best football again, to return to the days when he was really, really famous. The magic is still in his boots. Let us hope we can bring him.'

City will also announce the signing of Jo, a new breed of Brazilian. 'He will cost a lot of money,' continued the City owner, who has agreed to pay £20m. 'But he is fast, he is a goalscorer; he will be special and a very good player in the Premier League.'

Eriksson has left the building, with a rather tasty pay-off. Here's why, according to Thaksin. 'I want you to know that Sven is a good man. I brought him to the club and supported him with investment (more than £50m spent last season) and we still have a good friendship.

'But I want this club to advance faster, much faster. Sven is a good football general, but we need more. We must play with more consistency, much more urgency. In the second half of the season, the slide was too bad, too much. We lost 8-1 at Middlesbrough! The shame of that.'

City supporters will know that the players had downed tools by this point, seemingly disputing the treatment of their manager. Thaksin begins to throw his arms around and raises his voice.

'The team stopped playing! They stopped working! I could not take this. I understand you cannot win every game. A football is round; it does not bounce along a straight line. I can accept the unpredictable, but not such a fall. We had to make a change.

'Mark Hughes is an excellent appointment. The players need to be motivated, instead of playing like people who are not being paid any money!'

He pays his money, he does his homework: Thaksin has researched the past and family background of every City player. 'I have heard of Premier League players with a garage full of sports cars and almost a girlfriend for each one. That is no way for an athlete to behave. He should be in the training ground, working.

'Ronaldinho has the old magic in his boots. I am sure he is still hungry,' says Thaksin

'We need a culture of discipline at our club,' he continues, hinting that Eriksson was too weak. 'I want strong leadership from the manager, motivation for young men and I want players who can cope with that.

'If not, they can go. I want players who work hard to make their luck, not players who are lazy. We are not a selling club, but I want players with talent, who will exercise and improve. I want desire and commitment.

'Some may fit, some not. That is a decision for the new manager. Look, you cannot all live together for ever. Some will go, but not our best young players.

'We will pay the best for the best and to the best. That is my strategy, which is why I want a player like Ronaldinho. We need to breed success. Right now, we have a negative cash flow, but within two years we will be making money. You will see.

'The supporters, I hope, will also see what I am trying to do. They have loved the club longer than me, but I am with them because I have invested my money, a lot of money.' Most recently the £4.6m paid to Blackburn for Hughes and his coaching team.

'There are times when I wish I could be closer to the fans and to talk to them, but they will have to trust me and to see that, instead of words, I show them my intentions with actions.'

Richards, sought by Manchester United is staying. 'He is our star. He will not leave,' says a determined owner with £900m in reserve to back up his promise. Will the other team in Manchester be as lucky keeping their star attraction?

'You can see why other teams want Cristiano Ronaldo. Watch him in the penalty box when the ball is arriving. He comes alive, he wants the ball, he does not wait for it like some others. He makes it happen,' says Thaksin, illustrating his words by flashing his head at an imaginary ball.

It can be a surreal fantasy talking football with Thaksin (but he has the money to make it reality) so it would not have surprised me if he had declared Ronaldo to be his next transfer target, right there and then over the organic chicken soup.

Don't worry Fergie, he didn't. Blackburn's David Bentley is a more realistic purchase. 'Every owner of a Premier League club has a duty to play Englishmen in his team. 'We won the Youth Cup this season and I am very proud of the young men (he reels off at least six names and descriptions of