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The Service of Snowden

29 June 2013 - Roger Cohen for the International Herald Tribune


At the same time, he has been lauded by Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, as a member of the “young, technically minded” generation “that Barack Obama betrayed.” Assange called President Obama the real “traitor.” Across the world, and in the United States itself, many people sympathize with Snowden. They see his leaks as a needed stand for individual freedom against the security-driven mass surveillance of a U.S. National Security Agency armed with the technology to gather and analyze the digital trails of our lives.

So what is Snowden? A self-aggrandizing geek who betrayed his country and his employer, Booz Allen Hamilton, exposed the United States to greater risk of terrorist attack, and may now — wittingly or unwittingly — have made his trove of secrets available to China and Russia, nations that are no longer enemies but are rival powers?

Or a brave young American determined to fight — at the risk of long imprisonment — against his country’s post-9/11 lurch toward invasion of citizens’ lives, ever more intrusive surveillance, undifferentiated data-hauling of the world’s digital exhaust fumes (for storage in a one-million-square-foot fortress in Utah), and the powers of a compliant secret court to issue warrants for international eavesdropping and e-mail vacuuming?

Snowden, apparently holed up in the transit area of Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport, has disappeared from view. Perhaps one way to assess what he has done is to imagine how things would stand if he had never existed. I am not big on counterfactuals — hypothetical history is at once tantalizing and meaningless — but in this case the exercise may be useful.

We would not know how the N.S.A., through its Prism and other programs, has become, in the words of my colleagues James Risen and Eric Lichtblau, “the virtual landlord of the digital assets of Americans and foreigners alike.” We would not know how it has been able to access the e-mails or Facebook accounts or videos of citizens across the world; nor how it has secretly acquired the phone records of millions of Americans; nor how through requests to the compliant and secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (F.I.S.A.) it has been able to bend nine U.S. Internet companies to its demands for access to clients’ digital information.

We would not be debating whether the United States really should have turned surveillance into big business, offering data-mining contracts to the likes of Booz Allen and, in the process, high-level security clearance to myriad folk who probably should not have it. We would not have a serious debate at last between Europeans, with their more stringent views on privacy, and Americans about where the proper balance between freedom and security lies.

We would not have legislation to bolster privacy safeguards and require more oversight introduced by Senator Patrick Leahy, Democrat of Vermont and the chairman of the Judiciary Committee. Nor would we have a letter from two Democrats to the N.S.A. director, Gen. Keith B. Alexander, saying that a government fact sheet about surveillance abroad “contains an inaccurate statement” (and where does that assertion leave Alexander’s claims of the effectiveness and necessity of Prism?).

In short, a long-overdue debate about what the U.S. government does and does not do in the name of post-9/11 security — the standards applied in the F.I.S.A. court, the safeguards and oversight surrounding it and the Prism program, the protection of civil liberties against the devouring appetites of intelligence agencies armed with new data-crunching technology — would not have occurred, at least not now.

All this was needed because, since it was attacked in an unimaginable way, the United States has gone through a Great Disorientation. Institutions at the core of the checks and balances that frame American democracy and civil liberties failed. Congress gave a blank check to the president to wage war wherever and whenever he pleased. The press scarcely questioned the march to a war in Iraq begun under false pretenses. Guantánamo made a mockery of due process. The United States, in Obama’s own words, compromised its “basic values” as the president gained “unbound powers.” Snowden’s phrase, “turnkey tyranny,” was over the top but still troubling.

One of the most striking aspects of the Obama presidency has been the vast distance between his rhetoric on these issues since 2008 and any rectifying action. If anything he has doubled-down on security at the expense of Americans’ supposedly inalienable rights: Hence the importance of a whistleblower.

Snowden has broken the law of his country. We do not know what, if anything, he has offered China or Russia — or been coerced or tricked into handing over. He has, through his choice of destination, embraced states that suppress individual rights and use the Internet as an instrument of control and persecution. His movements have sent the wrong message.

Still, he has performed a critical service. History, the real sort, will judge him kindly.


Abbott v Rudd: the choice Australia deserves?

26 June 2013 Mike Seccombe for The Global Mail

Julia Gillard is a class act. I can’t think of any Australian politician, at least in my time, who’s had to put up with so much crap, and done it with such grace.

Forget about policy and ideology for a moment, and think of it just in human terms. She led a minority government, with all the delicate negotiation that entails. She was up against the most intransigent, ruthless opposition imaginable. She faced, right from the get-go, a hostile media, sections of which were entirely prepared not only to misrepresent the facts at every opportunity but to attack her personally in way we’ve never seen before in this country.

Nothing was too nasty for these opponents – these people I have previously called the Nasty Movement. I don’t think it’s partisan to suggest that commentary which attacks a political leader in the crudest possible language, which suggests her father died of shame, which lampoons her genitalia, for God’s sake, and impugns her partner’s sexuality is demeaning not just to Gillard, but to the whole political process.

This extreme nastiness was not restricted to her, either. A significant part of the reason Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor announced their decision to leave politics was the unremitting assaults of the shock jocks. Over the past couple of weeks, the parliament has seen an exodus of other good people too, most of them lamenting as they went the decline in Australian public political discourse.

But Gillard had to deal not only with the enemy without; she also faced an implacable enemy within. The Liberal party’s secret weapon was Kevin Rudd.

No matter what the government’s achievements – and they were significant – the Gillard government never got a clear run at selling them. Case in point: only hours before the prime minister announced there would be yet another party room contest for the party leadership, her government’s legislation promising comprehensive reform of the national education system passed the Senate.

Rudd, whose ego vastly outweighs his loyalty and integrity, sabotaged his own party from the moment he lost its leadership. Three times Gillard defeated him for the leadership: first, to take his job after his colleagues realised they could no longer cope with his erratic management style; then again, overwhelmingly in a vote in the party Caucus; then again in a contest which his followers called on, only to have him run away from the battle once he knew he could not win.

And after each, he protested loyalty, while privately he went about sowing discord. After the last, Rudd promised there were no circumstances, none at all, in which he would contest the leadership again. He said he would be a team player. He lied. He whispered his treason to any sympathetic Labor party or journalistic ear.

And so, coming into the last sitting week of the 43rd parliament, the word was that it was on yet again. Less than three months before an election, with Labor way behind, the whispering reached a new crescendo. Rudd and his surrogates were marshalling their forces.

There were two days of edgy hiatus, before the excrement hit the fan on Wednesday.

He said he would be a team player. He lied. He whispered his treason to any sympathetic Labor party journalistic ear.

The day began with Oakeshott and Windsor, jointly announcing they would not contest the election. According to Windsor, they went for a walk the previous night, during which Windsor told Oakeshott he’d decided to pull the pin, and Oakeshott told Windsor the same thing.

They are two honourable men, to whom should go much of the credit for such stability as this minority government has enjoyed. And two players right to the end, for the suggestion was that if Labor lost Gillard as its leader, it might also lose their support on the floor of parliament.

For the next couple of hours, the name of the media game was chasing the independent and minor party players, to see whether Labor could muster the support it needed to keep governing if it changed leader. At this stage, the best that can be said is “maybe”.

But for all this speculation, the fact remained that there was as yet no apparent move to change leader. Late morning and word spread that the Rudd forces had got up a petition in an effort to force a leadership contest. Under party rules, if one-third of Caucus members sign, it forces a ballot.

Ah, but it was devilishly hard to determine whether such a petition existed, let alone divine how many signatories it had. As Gillard later said, it was a bit like the Loch Ness monster in that some people believed it existed, but there was not hard evidence.

Anyway, off we all went to Question Time, half expecting Gillard to do as she did last time and announce in the parliament that she was calling on a leadership vote. But it didn’t happen. Instead, opposition leader Tony Abbott moved to suspend standing orders to debate his motion that “this house calls on the government to end its internal arguments and get on with governing this country.”

His speech was pretty much the stock-standard one he has been giving for three years, flogging again the notion that there was something treacherous in Gillard’s taking of the leadership. That’s rubbish, of course. She remained a loyal team player until it became abundantly clear her party was sick of Rudd and ready to dump him.

Less contentious, though, was Abbott’s assertion that: “The poison inside the Labor Party is paralysing government in this country.”

Yes and no to that one. For, as we noted above, the Gillard government has done pretty well, legislatively, but not at all well in terms of selling its achievements. His motion was defeated by one vote.

Then Question Time was over, and the focus was back on the elusive petition for a leadership spill. Was there a petition? Maybe. Probably. But in the end it didn’t matter, because Gillard called on the contest, a little after 4pm, live on Sky TV. It was, she said, in the “best interests of the nation and the Labor Party for this issue to be resolved”.
Julia Gillard before the vote on party leadership in Parliament House, Canberra. Photograph: Mike Bowers
And this time, she made clear right at the top, it definitely would be permanently resolved. If she lost a ballot, she would leave the parliament. She challenged any other contender – she didn’t name Rudd – to make the same promise. The Caucus would meet at 7pm.

It was a steely, gutsy performance. She looked confident. She had entered politics, she said, to “get things done”. Leadership instability was interfering with that, to the point where someone or other would have to leave the parliament to end that instability.

Then, she went back into the chamber, all poise and smiles, to hear Tony Windsor’s valedictory speech. Meanwhile Rudd held his own presser to confirm that he would stand. His pitch was simple: he’d changed his mind because and was standing “for the sake of the nation”. Without a change of leadership, he said, Labor faced a “catastrophic defeat”.

After that, it was a matter of taking sides, counting numbers. The crucial, Brutus blow for Gillard fell a little after 6.30 when one of the more influential factional players, Bill Shorten, formerly in the Gillard camp, came out in support of Rudd.

He looked and sounded deeply regretful, and why wouldn’t he?

In effect he was agreeing to pay ransom to a hostage taker. His choice was between an honorable contender who had committed to end the instability by leaving the parliament if necessary, and a man prepared to kill his party’s chances if his demands were not met. And in the party room, his demands were, finally met. The vote went 57-45 to Rudd.

Now it just remains to be seen if Rudd’s storied – and to so many who actually know him inexplicable – popularity with electors can do Labor any good.

As the old saying goes, in a democracy people get the government they deserve. Maybe it’s simply the case that Australia deserves a choice between Rudd and Abbott.

Can LCCs thrive in Japan?

25 June 2013

The simple answer is yes.

The longer answer is that there are some hurdles along the way. But there is no doubt that the Japan market is ripe to be opened up to low cost travel. Japan's high domestic short haul yields still frequently lead the world. And the consumer is the winner with LCCs offering high frequencies and cheaper flights.

In 2012 three new LCCs entering the market, all joint ventures with ANA (Peach and AirAsia Japan) or JAL (Jetstar Japan).

Yet this week AirAsia and All Nippon Airways have announced an end to their joint venture low fare AirAsia Japan venture.

The airlines cite irreconcilable differences for their divorce. Founded by Tony Fernandes, Air Asia is the largest and most profitable budget travel brand in Asia, although likely to be eclipsed by Lion Air of Indonesia in the near future.

Fernandes has expressed concern and frustration with AirAsia Japan in recent months, citing an inability for the carrier to control costs in Japan, and its exclusion from flying to Haneda, Tokyo’s most centrally located airport, and ‘other matters’.

Air Asia Japan and Jetstar Japan are both restricted to using remote Narita airport for their Tokyo bases.

All Nippon’s other low fare brand, Peach, which is based at Osaka’s Kansai airport, is expected to continue operating once AirAsia Japan goes out of business in October under the terms of agreement between ANA and AirAsia.

Qantas is a partner with Japan Airlines in Jetstar Japan, with each holding a 33.3% equity, while the remaining equity is equally divided between Mitsubishi Corporation and Century Tokyo Leasing Corporation. This venture will reach its first year of operation next Wednesday. Jetstar has also benefited to some extent from its association with Jetstar’s international wide body services to Japan including in particular its Gold Coast and Cairns flights.

It is no secret that Jetstar Japan has been losing money at this early stage in its roll-out, but it has been delivering relatively good operating statistics and is embarked on a long term strategic mission and parents Qantas and JAL have been longstanding partners too. Macquarie Equities estimates Jetstar Japan is losing about $50 million a year. But the Jetstar brand is already well recognised in Japan, thanks to several years of international operation by its Australian-based long haul arm and the major shareholders understand that they need to be patient.

It is worth noting that our recent flights on Jetstar from/to Tokyo-Sapporo were full both ways. The downside is that Narita was not built for domestic routes; check in areas are buried in a remote part of the airfield; security is slow; there are no or few airside facilities; and the bus to the plane is near pre-historic.

Peach (with Hong Kong part owners) too has apparently quietly been the best achiever, most recently reporting a 78% load factor for May-2013, with an 81% on time performance.

But the AirAsia-ANA partnership has not been a happy place. It was not just about ANA's high cost overheads burdening Air Asia. As the AirAsia media release points out the words “and operating from Narita” point to the disadvantage for the JV of being based at a substantial distance outside Tokyo, as well as being head to head with Jetstar Japan, also based there. Peach by contrast, has Osaka’s Kansai low cost market virtually to itself. The media release added that AirAsia Japan was suffering from an “inability to manage costs.”

A key constraint on the country’s budget carriers is that they have been shut out of Haneda Airport, just a short train ride from downtown Tokyo and the staging point for the most profitable domestic routes, which are controlled by ANA and rival Japan Airlines (JAL).

Flying out of Narita International Airport requires a one-hour train ride or a 90 minute bus ride from the city center, a long-standing headache for travellers, including passengers with AirAsia Japan and Jetstar Japan, a joint venture between JAL and Australia’s Qantas.

The bus ride to Narita can cost as much as the onwards air ticket.

In addition the Japanese aviation industry has long been notorious for sky-high landing fees and fuel taxes, in a market that is still largely controlled by JAL and ANA, the country’s two dominant carriers.

Jetstar's summer schedules show part of the problem of operating from Narita; Jetstar Japan will be operating non-stop on 13 domestic routes across Japan, seven from Tokyo Narita, four from Osaka Kansai (including Tokyo Narita), and three from Nagoya Chubu. In total, the airline will be operating 70 flights per day, basically three round-trips for each of its 12 aircraft. With each flight being on average perhaps 75 minutes flying time that means each aircraft is only flying for 7 hrs 30 minutes a day. Not enough for an LCC.  

In the future Jetstar Japan will begin flying international routes to China, Korea and Taiwan; this should extend flying hours and allow access to airports where early morning and late night departures are feasible.

Air Asia will be back at a future date and with another partner. The opportunity is too big to miss.

More test cricket in the UAE

24 June 2013

Excellent news for UAE cricket fans - these will be two well contested series.

Pakistan's next two cricket series against South Africa and Sri Lanka will be held in the UAE, according to a PCB official, with preparations already underway.

Officials had been reluctant to announce their next two series from October-January, instead hoping they could convince visiting teams to tour Pakistan, a country hard hit by Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked violence.

Pakistan has been forced to play their 'home' games in the UAE since militants attacked the Sri Lankan team in March 2009, suspending international cricket in the country.

On Saturday, 10 foreign climbers were killed by gunmen in the Himalayas, the worst attack on foreigners for a decade and an incident that has further inflamed the country's reputation for insecurity.

The Pakistan Cricket Board on Monday took out an advertisement in a local newspaper, inviting bids to sponsor two series, now confirmed for the UAE.

"The two series will be played in the UAE as we have started our preparations," a PCB official confirmed, refusing to be named.

Pakistan play two Tests, five one-day and three Twenty20 internationals against South Africa in October-November before returning to play three Tests, five one-day and two T20s against Sri Lanka in December-January.

Dubai's other great airline

24 June 2013 Stephen Scourfield, Travel Editor, The West Australian

"We have become familiar with the one-stop nature of the Emirates network. With Dubai as the stepping stone, London, New York, Athens and Nairobi are just one stop away, along with more than 120 other destinations.

But add in low-cost regional carrier flydubai and the picture deepens.

I am one stop away from Yerevan in Armenia, where I am heading, and from Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, from where I will return. I can have my baggage ticketed direct to and from either city.

And it could have been many places in the Middle East, south-eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine, Central Asia, the Subcontinent, and north and East Africa. From Luxor and Alexandria in Egypt to Amman in Jordan. From Bucharest in Romania to Kiev in Ukraine. From Muscat in Oman to Kathmandu in Nepal.

For, with 1054 flights a week, flydubai flies to 57 destinations in 33 countries.

Yet, though flydubai first flew in 2008 and is owned by the Government of Dubai, many Perth travellers will not have heard of it or seen an air ticket bearing its FZ code. But it has 28 Boeing 737-800 planes, with 22 on order. They are all configured with 189 seats.

Although flydubai is not part of the Emirates group, Emirates supported it during its establishment phase.

Emirates' flights to and from Perth arrive at Terminal 3 at Dubai International Airport and I take a $12 taxi ride to Terminal 2 to board my flight to Armenia.

The flight announcement boards are a geographer's dream and the terminal itself is a mix of these regional nationalities.

On the coach to shuttle out to the plane, seated Armenian men automatically stand for women and children as they board. Tough guys with manners.

Carry-on baggage is included in the ticket price. Passengers are allowed a maximum of 7kg, in addition to a small laptop computer bag or handbag.

A 20kg check-in luggage allowance can be bought online for AED50 (approximately $14), 30kg for AED95 and 40kg for AED150.

On board, the Boeing 737-800 is new and spotlessly clean, with a bright interior and high ceiling - flydubai was the first airline to introduce the Boeing Sky interior, with its new lighting system that simulates daytime, night-time, sunrise and sunset.

Overhead lockers give extra headroom. The seats are also surprisingly spacious for a low-cost airline - with more legroom, for example, than the Jetstar flight I'd been on a couple of days before. The seats, designed by Recaro, not only give an extra 5cm of legroom by moving the magazine rack to the top of the seat, but have good back support, a comfortable pad and are made of light materials, saving fuel, which can be reflected in fares.

On my flights, TV and movies are complimentary. There's a touch screen, also with eReader newspapers. Interestingly, the touch screen works though lighter fibre optics, rather than copper wire, reducing weight and, therefore, fuel consumption.

There is an extensive menu, with wraps from AED15, sandwiches from AED10, muffins from AED10, Coke or coffee from AED5, and much more. The good three-cheese sandwich is haloumi, red Leicester and cheddar on brown bread.

There is also duty-free shopping.

The crew are terrific - friendly, helpful and clearly well trained.

It might have been rather invisible, until now, from Perth, but flydubai easily serves 2.5 billion people with planes that have a 5500km flying range.

And it backs into the Emirates network to make even more of the world one stop away."

Snowden escapes Hong Kong

23 June 2013

The world has gone mad when Edward Snowden has to fly to Russia and onto Cuba or Venezuela to ensure his freedom. But the USA had asked the Hong Kong government to arrest Mr. Snowden and it was therefore time to leave.

It look likely that Snowden will finish up in Equador. Venezuela is not really recommended if you read the Caracas Chronicles.

His plane arrived in Russia shortly after 5pm local time. Snowden is not believed to have a Russian visa and is thought to be staying overnight at a capsule hotel inside Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport after reportedly being met on the tarmac by diplomatic cars.

Well done the Hong Kong authorities - they really played this straight and the "meanwhile" in their press release really is a less than diplomatic tow fingers to the Americans.

The HKSAR Government today (June 23) issued the following statement on Mr Edward Snowden:

Mr Edward Snowden left Hong Kong today (June 23) on his own accord for a third country through a lawful and normal channel.

The US Government earlier on made a request to the HKSAR Government for the issue of a provisional warrant of arrest against Mr Snowden. Since the documents provided by the US Government did not fully comply with the legal requirements under Hong Kong law, the HKSAR Government has requested the US Government to provide additional information so that the Department of Justice could consider whether the US Government's request can meet the relevant legal conditions. As the HKSAR Government has yet to have sufficient information to process the request for provisional warrant of arrest, there is no legal basis to restrict Mr Snowden from leaving Hong Kong.

The HKSAR Government has already informed the US Government of Mr Snowden's departure.

Meanwhile, the HKSAR Government has formally written to the US Government requesting clarification on earlier reports about the hacking of computer systems in Hong Kong by US government agencies. The HKSAR Government will continue to follow up on the matter so as to protect the legal rights of the people of Hong Kong.

Ends/Sunday, June 23, 2013
Issued at HKT 16:05


ABC News in the USA reported that Snowden's passport was revoked on Saturday, leaving US officials even more baffled as to how he was allowed to fly out from Hong Kong. It is, however, unlikely to be a problem for Russia; assuming that Snowden is in transit and never leaves the airport, his immigration status is not Moscow's issue.

His movement to a new country is being supported by the Wikileaks organisation at Snowden's request.

The move came two days after the US announced it had charged him with espionage and hours after the US stepped up pressure on Hong Kong to issue a provisional warrant for Snowden's arrest with a view to his surrender.

Snowden had previously said he would stay in Hong Kong and fight for his freedom through the courts. He had been at a safe house since 10 June, when he checked out of his hotel after giving an interview to the Guardian revealing himself as the source who leaked top secret US documents.

Snowden's departure came on the same day the South China Morning Post carried detailed reports of claims from him about US actions against China, including allegations of the hacking of phone text messages. China has said it is “gravely concerned” about the revelations. The country’s Xinhua news agency called the US “the biggest villain in our age" when it comes to hacking. Which does sound a little like the pot calling the kettle black.

His unexpected departure comes a day after the US sought to turn up pressure on the territory, with a senior administration official telling the Washington Post: "If Hong Kong doesn't act soon, it will complicate our bilateral relations and raise questions about Hong Kong's commitment to the rule of law."

Snowden is believed to have boarded Aeroflot SU213 on Sunday morning, bound for Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport.

In a statement, WikiLeaks said: "He is bound for a democratic nation via a safe route for the purposes of asylum, and is being escorted by diplomats and legal advisers from WikiLeaks.

"Mr Snowden requested that WikiLeaks use its legal expertise and experience to secure his safety. Once Mr Snowden arrives at his final destination his request will be formally processed."

It is not clear why the Us request did not comply with HKSAR law; there is a very low information requirement for a provisional warrant – simply providing evidence that the person was in Hong Kong and that he or she was wanted for prosecution in the USA should be sufficient. 

There is much self righteous noise from America about the damage that Snowden has done.

National Security Agency director Keith Alexander said today that Snowden had betrayed the trust of Americans. Alexander defended the broad surveillance programs as necessary to prevent another terrorist attack.

General Alexander told ABC's This Week: "This is an individual who is not acting, in my opinion, with noble intent ... What Snowden has revealed has caused irreversible and significant damage to our country and to our allies."

Alexander said the NSA surveillance programs Snowden had disclosed to the Guardian were tightly overseen and disputed statements from members of the Senate intelligence committee that they had not played a unique role in preventing terrorist attacks.

The Obama administration indicated on Sunday morning it would not cease in attempts at capturing Snowden.

Alexander said that broad surveillance efforts on Americans' phone records and on foreign internet usage, disclosed by Snowden, was in line with Americans' expectations for preventing another 9/11.

"These two capabilities helped us form the dots," Alexander said. "I think that's what the American people want us to do."

9/11 has been used to justify all manners of abuse and to support a massive increase in surveillance. It is time to redress the balance and Snowden has done that. He is not a hero. He has abused the trust of his employers. But he has opened up a necessary debate about just how much data a government needs not just on its own citizens but on their contacts with companies and peoples around the world.

EK's plans for DXB single runway ops - summer 2014

23 June 2013

Emirates has outlined its planned service reductions from May 2014, due to the 80-day Dubai International Airport’s (DXB) runway enhancement project, scheduled from 1 May 2014 to 20 July 2014. Based on its current plan Emirates plans to reduce approximately 215 – 225 weekly flights or up to 32 daily flights, which accounts roughly 15% out of the carrier’s 1450 – 1470 weekly scheduled flights (Based on May 2014 vs March 2014 schedule out of Dubai on one-way basis, including 1/2-stop(s) flight, as of 24 June 2013.

Routes with frequencies reduction are listed below, while cancelled flights are listed in the parentheses (these flights are no longer available for reservation for travel on/after 01MAY14, Dubai departure). Further changes to planned service reduction are expected during the course of next few months.

Dubai – Amman Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK903/904)
Dubai – Bahrain Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK835/836)
Dubai – Bangalore Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK566/567)
Dubai – Bangkok Reduce from 5 to 4 daily (EK376/377)
Dubai – Beirut Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK957/958)
Dubai – Cairo Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK923/924)
Dubai – Cape Town Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK770/771)
Dubai – Colombo Reduce from 17 to 7 weekly (EK654/655; Including onward service to Singapore, see below)
Dubai – Colombo – Singapore 1 daily service cancelled (EK348/349; Singapore nonstop service unaffected)
Dubai – Delhi Reduce from 4 to 3 daily (EK516/517)
Dubai – Dhaka Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK586/587)
Dubai – Doha Reduce from 6 to 3 daily (EK841/842, EK847/848, EK851/852)
Dubai – Frankfurt Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK043/044)
Dubai – Glasgow Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK027/028)
Dubai – Hong Kong Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK386/387)
Dubai – Johannesburg Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK765/766)
Dubai – Karachi Reduce from 5 to 4 daily (EK608/609)
Dubai – Kuala Lumpur Reduce from 4 to 3 daily (EK344/345)
Dubai – Kuwait City Reduce from 5 to 4 daily (EK853/854)
Dubai – Lagos Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK783/784)
Dubai – Milan Malpensa Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK101/102)
Dubai – Moscow Domodedovo Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK133/134)
Dubai – Mumbai Reduce from 5 to 4 daily (EK508/509)
Dubai – Muscat Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK866/867)
Dubai – Nairobi Reduce from 2 to 1 daily (EK721/722)
Dubai – Riyadh Reduce from 4 to 2 daily (EK813/814; EK815/816. EK819/820 in April 2014 displays 5 weekly instead of daily)
Dubai – Seychelles Reduce from 12 to 7 weekly (EK707/708)
Dubai – Tehran Reduce from 3 to 2 daily (EK977/978)
Dubai – Vienna Reduce from 13 to 6 weekly (EK127/128; No operations on Tuesdays)

In addition, Emirates says that it has no plans to open new Trans-Atlantic services out of Europe during the 80-day runway enhancement project (other than the planned new Milan – New York JFK due from October 2013).

It is a start - but more cuts are likely - and some air traffic will need to relocate to Dubai World Central.

Emirates in near miss - February 2013

23 June 2013

From www.avherald.com

By Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Jun 21st 2013 18:18Z, last updated Friday, Jun 21st 2013 18:18Z

An Emirates Boeing 777-300, registration A6-EBD performing flight EK-123 from Dubai (United Arab Emirates) to Istanbul (Turkey) with 414 passengers and 17 crew, was in the initial climb through 500 feet out of Dubai's runway 12R in clear skies and daylight, when a United Arab Emirates Hawk fighter jet, not in contact with Dubai however transponding Mode-C, was about to cross the extended runway center line of runway 12R at 600 feet AGL and 353 knots over ground. The Boeing crew, who received a TCAS Traffic Advisory but were unable to visually locate the other aircraft, as well as ATC had no time to react, the fighter pilot however flew a hard left turn avoiding a collision but not without the separation reducing to 100 feet vertical and 0.3nm horizontal. The United Arab Emirates Civil Aviation Authority reported only 3.5 seconds separated the aircraft from collision.

United Arab Emirates' Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) released their preliminary report stating, that the fighter pilot departing Dubai's Minhad Airbase flying north had already busted the airspaces of Dubai Al Maktoum Airport and Dubai International Airport without making contact with either airport control frequencies. The aircraft however was in contact with Dubai Approach Control Unit Al Minhad sector, operating from Dubai's Al Maktoum Airport. Sporadic radar contacts suggested that the Hawk was transponding Mode-C.

77 seconds prior to the near collision the Hawk crew requested clearance to climb to 2000 feet to cross Dubai International Airport from Al Minhad sector, the controller declined and advised the crew needed to contact Dubai International Airport tower at the tower frequency providing the frequency for the tower controlling runway 12L, not 12R. 11 seconds prior to near collision the Hawk crew attempted to contact that frequency.

The tower controller working 12R and the Boeing 777 noticed the fast moving target at 500 feet moving north just after the rotation of the Boeing 777 and issued a traffic alert to the Boeing, however, no avoidance action was possible due to phase of flight and the closure speed in excess of 350 knots.

Following the avoidance maneouver the Hawk crew established contact with Dubai International Airport's tower and advised they were now returning to Al Minhad Airbase, the aircraft was seen moving in a southerly direction afterwards.

The GCAA reported that the Boeing 777-300 was fitted with a TCAS 7.1, retrieval of data stored in the TCAS memory confirmed the crew's report of a TCAS traffic advisory, a resolution advisory was still inhibited as the aircraft had not yet reached TCAS operating height.

The GCAA rated the occurrence a serious incident involving a serious risk of a collision.

The GCAA's preliminary report can be found here: Investigation Preliminary Report of Boeing 777-300 and BAe Hawk Serious Incident, Loss of Separation, Inside Dubai Control Zone (CTR) near Dubai International Airport (OMDB) runway 12R, 12 February 2013

And the following comment from PPRUNE tells you all you need to know about mutual dis-respect in Dubai: "He (the UAE Hawk pilot) was on his mobile phone texting habibi. It was the 777's fault... if the expat hadn't been in "his" country, the local wouldn't have nearly hit him." Though it maybe that the 777 didn't see him, even though he was flashing his lights at him.....

Emirates is world's best airline - really?

17 June 2013

The Skytrax organisation announced its 2013 World rankings and Emirates appears as the World's best airline. Predictably this has caused plenty of hype from the airline and the local UAE media.

But how on earth did this happen. In 2011 Emirates rated 10th in the annual Skytrax survey; last year it ranked 8th; this year it wins.

Did all the other airlines lower their standards or did Emirates improve that dramatically?

Skytrax rates Emirates only as a 4 star airline; so a 4 star airline is now the world's best beating out a number of Skytrax ranked five star airlines. It really does not seem likely. And should any airline that has 3-4-3 in economy on a 777 be ranked as the world's best.

Emirates service has not improved in the last year. And judging by the flight yesterday night to Bangkok it has slipped significantly, at least in Economy.

Part of the answer might be the A380. It does make a huge difference for Emirates. It is an airplane that passengers like to fly and is significantly more comfortable in Economy than the cramped 777s.

Skytrax says that more than 18.2 million airline passengers from 160 countries took part in the survey; but I have never seen this survey or met anyone who has seen it. So how does Skytrax compile its data? They not very helpfully do not say. All they will say is that passengers vote for their favourite airline based on factors ranging from cleanliness of the cabin to the quality of the meals and entertainment.

Here’s the full top ten for 2013:

1. Emirates
2. Qatar Airways
3. Singapore Airlines
4. ANA All Nippon Airways
5. Asiana Airlines
6. Cathay Pacific Airways
7. Etihad Airways
8. Garuda Indonesia
9. Turkish Airlines
10. Qantas Airways


This was the 2012 top 10

1 Qatar Airways (1)
2 Asiana Airlines (3)
3 Singapore Airlines (2)
4 Cathay Pacific Airways (4)
5 ANA All Nippon Airways (11)
6 Etihad Airways (6)
7 Turkish Airlines (9)
8 Emirates (10)
9 Thai Airways (5)
10 Malaysia Airlines (12)

Now this is not very scientific but I thought I would look at the Skytrax flight reviews published for three airlines on the Skytrax website for the month of December 2012. Why December? It is a busy and stressful month for flying die to the winter/christmas holidays and it is in the middle of the year for the 2013 awards.

So what did I find:

 

Emirates Airline

 

Qatar Airways

 

Singapore Airlines

 

First

Business

Economy

Total

No first class

Business

Economy

Total

First

Business

Economy

Total

Total Number of Reviews

4

5

20

29

 

4

14

18

1

9

16

26

Recommended

3

3

12

18

 

4

13

17

1

7

15

23

Not recommended

1

2

8

11

 

0

1

1

0

2

1

3

Average Score out of 10

7.75

7.0

6.0

6.4

 

9.0

7.6

7.9

7

8.1

7.8

7.9

Based on one sample month of reviews the best airline in the world rating is not supported by the online customer reviews unless all 18 million surveyed passengers are all in first class. And in economy 40% of economy passengers do not recommend Emirates. Ouch.

Tim Clark is quoted as saying: "These awards are widely regarded as the industry's benchmark for Excellence. For us, the awards clearly reflect a vote of confidence from global travellers, who acknowledge and appreciate our continuous drive to deliver high-quality service. To be voted 'World's Best Airline' by millions of discerning travellers really is something for our 60,000 strong workforce to be proud of."

He should try reading the reviews...

World's best airline - or world's strangest airline survey?

The separation of the Murdochs

14 June 2013

82 year old Rupert Murdoch is divorcing his 44 year old wife. That was the big news of the evening.

At least Murdoch has not made the mistake of asking the media to respect his privacy - given the failings of his own news organisations.

There is a pre-nuptial agreement and two follow-up agreements so the Murdoch business empire is likely to be unaffected.

Rupert Murdoch and Wendi Deng were married on June 25, 1999, 17 days after his divorce from Anne, his second wife, became final. The twilight ceremony took place on Mr. Murdoch's garland-bedecked yacht, the Morning Glory, in New York Harbor. Welsh singing star Charlotte Church serenaded the couple with a trio of ballads. Among the 82 guests were Mr. Murdoch's three children and friends such as financier Michael Milken and Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky.

Back in 2007 Australian reporter Eric Ellis was commissioned to write a profile of Wendi Deng for Good Weekend magazine. He spent three months on the assignment, travelling to London, New York, Los Angeles, Hong Kong and to Xuzhou in Jiang Su province where the young Wendi Deng started her eventful life.

Ellis talked to dozens of people, including the ex-wife of Deng's older first husband, Murdoch watchers, current and former executives and Wendi's school friends and teachers

But the vast 10,000 word story was never published. It was pulled by Good Weekend's then editor Judith Whelan (or someone above her). Good Weekend owned by Fairfax and News Limited was then a 7.5% shareholder in Fairfax.

But other sites did pick up the story and here is the profile of an ambitious woman.

One connection I had not made. Deng's second husband was American David Wolf, who was chief operating officer at Claydon Gescher, a Beijing based consulting and lobbying company. Reuters was a client of Claydon Gescher and I met Wolf on a number of occasions.

Small world ! Big story.

Eric Ellis: Proflle of Wendy Deng Murdoch
Where Is Wendi Deng Murdoch's Wolf?

EK A380 to LAX

13 June 2013

Emirates Airline will fly the A380 aircraft from Dubai to Lon Angeles from December 2. The route is currently served by a Boeing 777-300 ER

Now the 777 already has to fly this route with payload restrictions so how will the A380 make this trip? Especially as EK has still not taken delivery of newer longer range A380s.

IF EK can get an A380 to LAX then it can get an A380 to any of its US destinations and over time the A380 is likely to fly most of the major USA and Australian routes together with some of the high density European routes such as London, Paris, Rome and Amsterdam.

Expect EK to make a bit of a fanfare for its A380 debut into LAX.

The announcement of the A380 on the airline’s longest route in terms of distance comes on the heels of last week’s announcement of A380 service added to Zurich, Switzerland. The A380 to Los Angeles compliments the double daily A380 flights already in place between Dubai and New York’s John F. Kennedy airport and becomes the 23rd A380 destination on the Emirates global route network.

Emirates, the largest A380 operator in the world, has 34 A380s in service and an additional 56 A380s on order.

I just worry that there may be some unexpected refuelling stops in Calgary or Seattle.

Dubai is second most romantic city in the world...for sugar daddies

12 June 2013

Even more depressing that the thought that Dubai could be the second most romantic city in the world is that the Dubai based Gulf News actually took the poll seriously.

The Gulf News reported that "a US-based travel dating website poll places city (Dubai) above London and Paris" in the romance stakes.

What the Gulf News failed to mention was that the poll was prepared by MissTravel.com a site notorious for putting financially challenged young ladies who want to travel in touch with wealthy male benefactors who are willing to pay for them to go on holiday or business trips with them.

Just the publicity that Dubai needs.

The poll results, which were released last Monday, stated that 4,784 trips have already been planned from the US between June and August. Istanbul took the top spot, followed by Dubai, Paris, London and San Francisco.

The Dubai number may have more to do with lonely US business bringing company with them rather than expecting to find suitable company locally given the 75/25 male/female ratio.

Of course there are some residents who will argue that the result was a well-earned one as the city boasts a number of romantic getaways that at first appear hidden. Err. Dubai is about as romantic as Detroit.

The Gulf News noted that Travel agencies explained that the poll results indicate the latest trend among tourists, particularly from South America and Asia, who use Dubai as a stopover to other destinations. This of course has nothing to do with the poll.

Visitors looking for romance should remember that anything more that a gentle peck on the cheek at the wrong time, in the wrong place with the wrong person can get you behind bars.

Or maybe the voters didn't know that

Emirates launches its newest London attraction

12 June 2013

Emirates has announced plans to open an indoor aviation themed attraction in London this July. The attraction will be based at the O2 end (the south side of the River Thames) of the Emirates airline cable car in East London and will hopefully generate more footfall at this loss making venture.

Emirates believes that the Emirates Aviation Experience will be the first of its kind globally. It will cover an area of almost 300 square metres and will provide an insight into the operations and modern achievements of commercial air travel.

“This high-tech facility will bring to London a one of a kind insight into the dynamic world of aviation,” said Tim Clark, President Emirates Airline. “The purpose of this centre is to provide a fun, yet educational, overview of just what it takes to successfully get a 560 tonne aircraft off the ground and 40,000 feet into the sky. Our aim is to explain the intricate science of modern aviation, in a hands-on, entertaining and instructive environment.”

“London is one of the greatest cities in the world, with one of the world’s busiest international airports, making it the perfect setting for this interactive experience. We have successfully operated services to the UK since 1987 and, when opened, the Emirates Aviation Experience will further broaden our already robust UK presence. Being able to provide London and its millions of international visitors with this permanent site is a true reflection of our commitment to innovation and also of our commitment to the UK,” added Mr Clark.

Utilising state-of-the-art technology, interactive displays and life-size aircraft models this immersive experience will incorporate several zones that will take visitors on an interactive aviation journey.

The Emirates Aviation Experience will also feature commercial flight simulators including two Airbus A380s and two Boeing 777s, utilising full landscape visuals, allowing participants to practice their take-off and landing skills. The centre will cater to people of all ages and will open to the public in time for the city's peak tourism period this July.

Emirates has a 10 year sponsorship agreement for the Emirates AirLine cable car system across the River Thames.

NSA surveillance: The US is behaving like China

11 June 2013 Ai Weiwei for The Guardian

Even though we know governments do all kinds of things I was shocked by the information about the US surveillance operation, Prism. To me, it's abusively using government powers to interfere in individuals' privacy. This is an important moment for international society to reconsider and protect individual rights.

I lived in the United States for 12 years. This abuse of state power goes totally against my understanding of what it means to be a civilised society, and it will be shocking for me if American citizens allow this to continue. The US has a great tradition of individualism and privacy and has long been a centre for free thinking and creativity as a result.

In our experience in China, basically there is no privacy at all – that is why China is far behind the world in important respects: even though it has become so rich, it trails behind in terms of passion, imagination and creativity.

Of course, we live under different kinds of legal conditions – in the west and in developed nations there are other laws that can balance or restrain the use of information if the government has it. That is not the case in China, and individuals are completely naked as a result. Intrusions can completely ruin a person's life, and I don't think that could happen in western nations.

But still, if we talk about abusive interference in individuals' rights, Prism does the same. It puts individuals in a very vulnerable position. Privacy is a basic human right, one of the very core values. There is no guarantee that China, the US or any other government will not use the information falsely or wrongly. I think especially that a nation like the US, which is technically advanced, should not take advantage of its power. It encourages other nations.

Before the information age the Chinese government could decide you were a counter-revolutionary just because a neighbour reported something they had overheard. Thousands, even millions of lives were ruined through the misuse of such information.

Today, through its technical abilities, the state can easily get into anybody's bank account, private mail, conversations, and social media accounts. The internet and social media give us new possibilities of exploring ourselves.

But we have never exposed ourselves in this way before, and it makes us vulnerable if anyone chooses to use it against us. Any information or communication could put young people under the surveillance of the state. Very often, when oppressive states arrest people, they have that information in their hands. It can be used as a way of controlling you, to tell you: we know exactly what you're thinking or doing. It can drive people to madness.

When human beings are scared and feel everything is exposed to the government, we will censor ourselves from free thinking. That's dangerous for human development.

In the Soviet Union before, in China today, and even in the US, officials always think what they do is necessary, and firmly believe they do what is best for the state and the people. But the lesson that people should learn from history is the need to limit state power.

If a government is elected by the people, and is genuinely working for the people, they should not give in to these temptations.

During my detention in China I was watched 24 hours a day. The light was always on. There were two guards on two-hour shifts standing next to me – even watching when I swallowed a pill; I had to open mouth so they could see my throat. You have to take a shower in front of them; they watch you while you brush your teeth, in the name of making sure you're not hurting yourself. They had three surveillance cameras to make sure the guards would not communicate with me.

But the guards whispered to me. They told stories about themselves. There is always humanity and privacy, even under the most restrictive conditions.

To limit power is to protect society. It is not only about protecting individuals' rights but making power healthier.

Civilisation is built on that trust and everyone must fight to defend it, and to protect our vulnerable aspects – our inner feelings, our families. We must not hand over our rights to other people. No state power should be given that kind of trust. Not China. Not the US.


Casino Dubai’s Rebound Pitch Ignored by Global Investors

11 June 2013 Bloomberg

Dubai is back with the big plans. What it doesn’t have are the biggest property investors.

Surging home prices in parts of Dubai and rebounding shopping and tourism markets are prompting developers to announce projects on a scale not seen since the emirate’s property market collapsed in 2008. So far, sovereign wealth, pension and insurance funds are staying away even as they splurge on real estate elsewhere.

“It’s a thin market and it has a reputation of being something of a casino,” said Richard Price, chief executive for Asia at CBRE Global Investors, which manages $93 billion of property assets. “I struggle to think of any real client appetite for exposure.”

Dubai’s developers, government officials and leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum have unveiled projects with a value of at least $40 billion in the past six months while providing few details on how they would be financed. With local and foreign banks unable or unwilling to lend for development, the absence of institutional investors calls into question just how many of the plans will come to fruition.

New projects like the world’s biggest Ferris wheel and a district with 100 hotels haven’t captured the attention of institutional investors as fallout from the crash, persistently high office vacancies and a population made up mainly of foreign transient workers cause them to look elsewhere.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc., based in Toronto, was one of the few large funds to target the sheikdom when it announced a $1 billion fund with the government’s Investment Corporation of Dubai in 2011 to focus on distressed assets. The size of the fund has since been reduced by half, Arabian Business reported May 9, citing Douglas Kirkman, chief executive officer of ICD-Brookfield Management Ltd.

“We are still fundraising and working on regulatory approvals for the fund,” Andrew Willis, a spokesman for Brookfield said by e-mail without being more specific.

Real estate topped the list of investments by sovereign wealth funds from Norway to Qatar last year, rising to 26 percent of the total from 14 percent in 2011, Institutional Investor’s Sovereign Wealth Center said in a May 16 report.

“Dubai is unlikely to attract very much interest from sovereign funds,” Victoria Barbary, director of the Sovereign Wealth Center, said by e-mail. “The boom and bust in Dubai’s property market over the past 10 years, as well as the large state-owned interests in properties and occupancy rates that still haven’t reached the levels of 2007 and 2008, would make the market too immature for non-Dubai-owned sovereign wealth funds.”

The lack of institutional investment compounds the financing difficulties for developers as foreign banks, stung by the last property crash, shun projects and local lenders are held back by regulation and their past losses. Banks that piled into Dubai during the boom, including HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Standard Bank Group Ltd., have struggled to recover their investments as state companies such as Dubai World Corp. and Dubai Holding LLC renegotiated terms of loans.

“Dubai would have to rely more on equity than debt relative to the last building boom,” said Gus Chehayeb, director of Middle East and North Africa research at investment bank Exotix Ltd. “This time around, international lenders do not have the same appetite for these types of projects. The balance sheets of Dubai banks are very exposed to government-related entities and local developments.”

In February, Sheikh Mohammed announced the Bluewaters project that includes the 210-meter (688-foot) Dubai Eye Ferris wheel and a Middle Eastern market as well as a hotel, restaurants and a family entertainment center. In November, he unveiled a plan for Mohammed Bin Rashid City, the largest real estate development to be revived after the emirate’s property crash. The new district will include homes, hotels, artificial beaches and gardens larger than Hyde Park. That month, he also approved Dubai Adventures Studios, a $2.7 billion project to build five theme parks.

Bluewaters developer Meraas Holding didn’t respond to calls asking for comment on the project’s financing. State-owned Dubai Holding LLC and Emaar Properties PJSC (EMAAR), the main developers on the MBR City project, also didn’t answer calls for comment on how it would be funded.

Companies with the best-located projects still have fundraising options as rising property values and debt repayments lead to lower costs on bond markets. Dubai’s five-year credit default swaps, which measure the cost of insuring the emirate’s debt, have tumbled almost 50 percent in the past 12 months.

Emaar this month said it began the expansion of its Dubai Mall, the world’s largest by area, and formed a partnership with Meraas to build the 11 million-square-meter Dubai Hills Estate, a mixed-use project featuring an 18-hole golf course. Tecom Investments LLC, a unit of Dubai Holding, said it will invest 4 billion dirhams ($1.1 billion) in the first phase of Dubai Design District for the fashion, design and luxury industries.

The average sale price of mid-range villas in Dubai soared 47 percent in the year to May and mid-range apartment prices advanced 32 percent, according to data compiled by Cluttons LLC.

Developers including Emaar (EMAAR), Dubai’s biggest by market value, and closely held Damac Properties Co. are reviving the practice of raising money by selling homes and serviced apartments before they are built. Wealthy individuals and international hotel and entertainment groups willing to form partnerships with Dubai companies are also a source of funding.

The last property boom was paid for largely by advance sales as well as debt from banks and the bond market. Large investment funds were mostly absent while developers and wealthy families poured into Dubai from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to capitalize on the boom, according to Craig Plumb, head of Middle East research at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

Institutional investors considered buying Dubai assets after the slump, but were put off by owners unwilling to cut selling prices and a lack of transactions on the open market, Plumb said. The Chicago-based company’s LaSalle Investment Management unit, with $47.7 billion in assets, doesn’t invest in the Middle East, he said.

“It’s mostly money going out of the region, to London or Hong Kong, but not properties in the Middle East,” he said. “They are not attractive in terms of the pricing or the yield that you get to compensate for the risk.”

Qatar, the natural-gas-rich nation that’s Dubai’s neighbor to the west, has focused on domestic projects and foreign investments in cities like London rather than developments on its doorstep. Qatari Diar Real Estate Investment Co., part of the country’s sovereign-wealth fund, helped build London’s Shard skyscraper and formed a partnership with Canary Wharf Group Plc to redevelop the Shell Centre near the London Eye Ferris wheel into a complex of offices and apartments.

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, among the world’s biggest sovereign-wealth funds, has a maximum allocation of 10 percent for real estate investments, according to its website. The fund, backed by the emirate’s oil revenue, only invests outside the U.A.E.

Mubadala Development Co. PJS, another Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund with a large real estate portfolio, has assets mainly in its domestic market as well as investments in Los Angeles, the Maldives and Malaysia, according to its website. It doesn’t list any investments in Dubai.

Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global will be among the biggest buyers of real estate this year as it seeks to meet its target allocation of property, according to the London-based Sovereign Wealth Center. The $747 billion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, has purchased commercial property in London, Paris, Frankfurt and Berlin as part of a plan to increase real estate to 5 percent of its investments from 0.9 percent as of March. New property investment will initially focus on well-developed European markets, according to the fund’s website.

About 26 percent of sovereign-wealth investment, or $13.7 billion, went to real estate last year, beating commodities with about 23 percent, the Sovereign Wealth Center found. Much of it went to “safe haven” commercial assets in London and Paris, according to the center’s report.

Though large funds tend to favor income-generating properties such as office towers and malls with tenants in place, they also finance development. CBRE Global Investors is frequently forming partnerships with developers in China, where the fund provides capital for construction, Price said.

“While there has been some institutional interest in some of Dubai’s debt, it hasn’t been the case for real estate,” said Rachel Ziemba, an analyst at Roubini Global Economics in London. “There are still concerns over the underlying demand and what the returns on these investments would be.”

The scale of Dubai’s new development plans means that the limits on financing can add years to the completion of projects. Work on the biggest ones will probably to stretch out over at least a decade, Jones Lang’s Plumb said.

The U.A.E.’s population of 5.5 million, 80 percent composed of foreigners who are mostly there based on temporary work permits, creates a long-term challenge. Dubai, with 2.1 million, and Abu Dhabi currently allow property buyers to secure a visa based on property ownership, a policy that has changed several times since it was first introduced.

Institutional investors tend to focus on developed markets where property prices have stabilized, Roubini’s Ziemba said. When they do invest in emerging markets, countries with large indigenous populations tend to win as investors see a better long-term outlook, she said.

“I struggle with the scale of high-end condominium development on the basis of such a small indigenous populations and much larger transient population,” CBRE Global Investors’ Price said. “The housing bubble was built on sand rather than fundamentals.”

Brokeback Summit

10 June 2013

It really is not that funny - the photo-shopping is awful. But it managed to offend both the Chinese and the Americans.

Not bad for the Economist.

Focus on PRISM

10 June 2013

The National Security Agency: surveillance giant with eyes on America

“Perhaps I am naive,” he replied, “but I believe that at this point in history, the greatest danger to our freedom and way of life comes from the reasonable fear of omniscient State powers kept in check by nothing more than policy documents.” The steady expansion of surveillance powers, he wrote, is “such a direct threat to democratic governance that I have risked my life and family for it.” Edward Snowden to the Washington Post.

Some background: the National Security Agency has obtained direct access to the systems of Google, Facebook, Apple and other US internet giants, according to a top secret document obtained by the Guardian and the Washington Post..

The NSA access is part of a previously undisclosed program called Prism, which allows officials to collect material including search history, the content of emails, file transfers and live chats, the document says. Basically everything you do online is collected by the NSA.

The Guardian has verified the authenticity of the document, a 41-slide PowerPoint presentation – classified as top secret with no distribution to foreign allies – which was apparently used to train intelligence operatives on the capabilities of the program. The document claims "collection directly from the servers" of major US service providers.

The companies concerned all deny their co-operation in the program.

In a statement, Google said: "Google cares deeply about the security of our users' data. We disclose user data to government in accordance with the law, and we review all such requests carefully. From time to time, people allege that we have created a government 'back door' into our systems, but Google does not have a back door for the government to access private user data."

It will be very interesting to see if Snowden reveals more information on how the NSA accesses online data.

An Apple spokesman said it had "never heard" of Prism.

I fear some people are going to be embarrassed by the extent of their co-operation when these details are revealed.

Disclosure of the Prism program follows a leak to the Guardian last Wednesday of a top-secret court order compelling telecoms provider Verizon to turn over the telephone records of millions of US customers; and not on a once only basis but every day.

How big is this NSA/PRISM scandal? In the USA it is big enough that the two political parties have absolutely no idea how to react to it. Normally, liberals would be howling at the idea of spying and infringement on privacy - but Obama is in the White House approving this stuff.

Normally, the Right would be staunch defenders of this kind thing in the name of national security, especially given the private contractors involved - except this would align them with Obama! And that, above all, is not permissible on any subject, under any circumstances.

And so the Democrats are keeping mostly quiet as the President works up a defense of this activity.

A handful of Republicans shout for the extradition of the whistleblower but their hearts don't really seem to be in it.

Though I suspect that there will be efforts at his extradition if only to discourage others.

America even has an act of law protecting whistleblowers - unless they reveal something that the authorities don't like.

Obama is massively damaged by this: Barack Obama had embraced social media as a part of his campaign and government. Like Apple and Facebook crowd he held out the promise of a modern inclusive world. Google's informal motto is Don't be Evil. Obama's was Hope.

Perhaps people lost their innocence about Google and Facebook long ago, realising that, just because their founders were kids in jeans, they are still corporate behemoths making money for their investors. Likewise, Prism will further dim the Obama halo.

Obama has authorised not merely the continuation of a programme of state surveillance that he once opposed, but has actively expanded it. A president repeatedly slammed as a "liberal" incerasingly has a legacy marred by a series of gravely illiberal acts.

He promised but failed to close the detention camp at Guantánamo Bay; he has made routine the use of drones, assassinating enemies from the sky; Obama's justice department had spied on a Fox News reporter, James Rosen, tracking his movements, seizing his telephone records and taking two days' worth of his personal emails, in pursuit of a state department leak. And then there is the legal pursuit of Bradley Manning.

It may hurt the President more than it hurts the likes of Facebook and Google. Many of us assumed these big companies abused our privacy anyway. In reality we have made Prism possible. Back in the John le Carré days of cold war espionage, private information was hard to get. Spies relied on papers stuffed in manila files, or operatives hanging around on street corners. Now we happily publish everything about us.

Our most private material is sent to servers and clouds operated by people we don't know and will never meet. Our hope is that the worst that can happen is Google bothering us with an annoying ad or Spotify recommending Taylor Swift.

But if that knowledge goes elsewhere, if governments can get it when they ask for it, or even without asking for it, then we have in effect outsourced the job of spying to the web mega-companies.

The fact that these very same companies were willing, if secret, partners in this endeavour, whilst mounting a vocal opposition to it, would be a sad hypocrisy. ‘You have to fight for your privacy or you will lose it’, Google’s Eric Schmidt insisted earlier this year. It appears that this is exactly what they have failed to do.

Will anything change; unlikely. Governments place themselves beyond the law cloaked in the language of national security.

One potential shoe bomber has made airport security an even greater hell. One email saving us from a threat will justify the elimination of our privacy.

As for the UK - there is a simple question that the government is not answering; did GCHQ make use of NSA's Prism system to bypass British laws and spy on the public through covert access to internet giants such as Google and Facebook?

A couple of simple questions: When did the UK government first learn of the Prism programme and how long has GCHQ had access to Prism?

There is far more to come on this story.

Is Dubai out of control - again?

10 June 2013

There are times when I wish Dubai would actually finish something rather than launch a weekly announcement for yet another new development.

The latest include:

Dubai Creek Harbour: A joint venture between Emaar and Dubai Holdings to build a 6.5 million square metre "urban district" which will include a business district, shopping, sporting and entertainment facilities.

Emaar, Dubai's largest listed developer, is part government-owned, while Dubai Holding is part of the Dubai ruler's personal business empire.

Dubai Design District: An Emaar joint venture with Meraas Holding to build a development for thet design, fashion and retail industries. This will be situated adjacent to the Business Bay area of the city.

It will feature a custom-built creative community that would include purpose-built commercial and retail facilities for established and emerging designers, design institutes, a waterfront promenade, a convention centre, event venues and related academic institutions.

And of course there will be a substantial residential component.

Mohammed bin Rashid City: To be built between Business bay and Meydan including a park which will be 30% bigger than Hyde park in London. MBR City is a planned mixed-use development planned as a new "city" within Dubai. The complex is to contain four components: Family tourism, including a park able to receive 35 million visitors yearly, the largest family leisure and entertainment complex in the Middle East, Africa and Indian Subcontinent. The park is to be established in collaboration with Universal Studios and include more than 100 new hotels
Retail, including the Mall of the World, planned to be the largest shopping mall in the world....poor old Dubai Mall! Arts, including the largest area for art galleries in the Middle East and North Africa, "Cultural Crossing", which will connect the existing areas of Downtown Dubai (location of the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa) and Business Bay, to the rest of Mohammed bin Rashid City. Entrepreneurship and innovation. Although not much has been said about this yet!

Bluewater Island; a new development project to be built off the Jumeirah Beach Residence coastline, near Dubai Marina, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The development will be built on reclaimed land off the Jumeirah Beach coastline by Meraas Holding, and will cost AED 6 Billion.

Bluewater Island will feature the Dubai Eye, a 210-metre (689 ft) tall Ferris wheel that will provide views of Dubai Marina and landmarks such as Burj Al Arab, Palm Jumeirah, and Burj Khalifa.

In Dubailand a US$3-billion project that includes five separate theme parks, which will include themed indoor and outdoor attractions such as thrill rides, Hollywood and Bollywood related entertainment geared toward families, as well as wildlife safaris, marine life and aquatic adventures. There will also be up to 100 new hotels in this development....or will this simply become a part of the MBR project.

Master developer Meraas Holding announced the first component, Dubai Adventure Studios, will be ready by the end of 2014.

The Hills: Emaar Properties has unveiled its newest residential development in Dubai called The Hills which will also include a hotel and serviced apartments. The Hills features two residential buildings of 12 and 15 storeys, each featuring one, two and three-bedroom apartments and overlooks the Emirates Golf Club.

Included in the development is a hotel under Vida Hotels and Resorts, the latest addition to Emaar's hospitality portfolio.

Akoya: The planned golf course at the heart of Damac Properties’ new master plan development, Akoya by Damac, will be named after US businessman Donald Trump. The 18-hole PGA Championship golf course, to be named Trump International Golf Club, Dubai, will be spread across 6588 metres and have a par of 71.

Damac Properties says construction already had started and the course would be ready for play next year. Let's hope this progresses further than either the Tiger Woods course or Mr Trump's last proposed Dubai projects on the Palm Jumairah.

The 29 million sq ft master development will be build off Umm Sequim Road in Dubai with the golf course to be surrounded by mansions, villas, townhouses and luxurious apartments.

It will also include a spa, boutique hotels and international schools from kindergarten to secondary, as well as globally-recognised retail brands, leisure and entertainment offerings and a sports complex.

Trump International Golf Club will include a 30,000 square foot state-of-the-art club house and luxurious Trump Spa & Wellness Centre, which will be managed by The Trump Organization.

Other projects include the Dh2.5 billion expansion of Madinat Jumeirah, a pedestrian footbridge across Dubai Creek, a Dh390 million residential complex for Dubai Police, The Al Sufouh tramline, and the Dh1.5 billion expansion of Business Bay Canal.

Dubai real estate firm Deyaar said today that it will launch two new projects this year as well as starting sales on another major development.

One of the new projects would be an AED500m ($136m) residential development in the Business Bay district; the company gave no details of the second project.

And there are plenty more that I have missed.

"The process of development never stops and has no limits," said Sheikh Mohammed. I understand that. But one look at The World and sometimes the vision is not matched by reality. The question is why is there no commitment to complete existing projects before or while announcing new developments. And where is the commitment to deliver a development that bears a reasonable resemblance to what was promised. Where is the Palm Jebel Ali, the Waterfront, The Palm Deira. Will the World ever be completed. Will Business Bay ever be completed?

The myth of don't do evil

8 June 2013

Details of the PRISM project were leaked to the Washington Post and the Guardian last week by Edward Snowden: the Guardian provides more details about the whistleblower behind the NSA surveillance revelations.

Snowden's judgment may be questionable - he has escaped to Hong Kong but Hong Kong is not a sovereign country; it is part of China.  And China has even more surveillance of its citizens (it has gone very far toward ensuring that it knows the real identity of everyone using the internet); its press is thoroughly government-controlled; it has no legal theory of protection for free speech; and it doesn't even have national elections.

Not the sort of place that will support Snowden's apparent values and conscience. He is either ill-informed or has a more complex agenda.

As a side know it is strange how governments encourage whistle-blowers only until they whistle something that they did not want anyone to know about and then governments cry foul, or national security or official secrets act. You really cannot have it both ways.

His revelations do confirm that online privacy is history. In the USA the NSA has become the largest, most covert, and potentially most intrusive intelligence agency ever. A program called PRISM ensures that in secret listening rooms across the US, NSA software examines every email, phone call, and tweet. And western governments are co-operating.

Washington has handed Osama bin Laden his last and greatest triumph. The Prism files revealed in the Guardian indicate how far his bid to undermine western values has succeeded in the 12 years since 9/11. He has achieved state intrusion into the private lives and communications of every American citizen. He has shown the self-proclaimed home of individual freedom as so paranoid in the face of his "terror" as to infiltrate the entire internet, sucking up mobile phone calls, emails, texts and, we may assume, GPS movements.

The vast databases of Microsoft, Google, YouTube and Facebook are open to government. They may cry "your privacy is our priority", but they lie. Obedience to regulatory authority is their priority. And what does authority say? It says what authority always says: "We collect significant information on bad guys, but only bad guys." As police states have said down the ages, the innocent have nothing to fear. For innocent, eventually read obedient.


This is the same trawling power that the British security services want parliament to approve in its snooper's charter. It is defended on the same basis, that it is only exchanges, not content, that they seek. They do not really mean to snoop. And they do it only where "national security" is involved. Pull the other one. That is what the Stasi said. You can almost sense the smirk as they say it. And they have even persuaded half of parliament that they are right.

Inducing such paranoia about terror – always called "al-Qaida-linked terror" – is precisely what Islam's jihadist regard as the crucial first step in undermining the west's pseudo-liberalism. It requires democracy to lose faith in oversight, to let securocrats off the leash, to capitulate to "better safe than free". It requires the regular click up the ratchet of control sought by each successive British home secretary. They are Bin Laden's useful idiots.

The western democracies, and especially America and Britain, are the most invulnerable states on earth. They are rich and secure. They may suffer occasional explosions and killings, but they face not the remotest risk of "existential defeat". Yet 9/11 brought into being an edifice of creeping surveillance and repression which democracy is clearly unable to curb. It has never been so at risk as now, from its own loss of faith in liberty. Osama bin Laden would be clapping his hands with glee.

Ho invests in Jetstar

7 June 2013

Shun Tak Holdings, the shipping to property conglomerate of the Stanley Ho Hung-sun family, is buying a 33.3 percent stake in Jetstar Hong Kong, the new carrier being set up by Australia based Qantas and China Eastern Airlines for US$66 million.

Jetstar Hong Kong does not yet fly and its progress has been delayed by the lack of regulatory approval in Hong Kong.

After the deal, the three companies will each hold an equal stake in the carrier.

Jetstar's brands include operations in Australia, Singapore, Vietnam and Japan. Its Hong Kong branch will focus on flights within five hours of the territory - reaching Japan, South Korea, the mainland and Southeast Asian countries. The airline plans to build up a fleet of 18 new Airbus A320 within three years, and employ 600 local staff.

The big focus will be the growth in outbound traffic from mainland China and the airline may well focus on routes currently served by DragonAir.

Shun Tak managing director Pansy Ho Chiu- king said the budget airline will stimulate new demand for leisure travel and create synergy with the firm's hospitality businesses.

It would be interesting to see if Jetstar Hong Kong is also granted access to fly to Macau.

Introducing a local partner may help Jetstar obtain a license as a budget airline with Hong Kong as its hub.

Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung said the government has stopped processing new airline applications as it is reviewing policies concerning local carriers.

Jetstar Hong Kong chief executive Edward Lau Chung-wai said he is aware of the review but the carrier is conducting positive dialogue with the regulators. It is confident of obtaining relevant licenses within the year, he added.

The Civil Aviation Department confirmed it has received Jetstar's application for an Air Operators Certificate. Officials said the shareholding structure will be a key factor it will consider to approve an application but will not be the sole factor.

It is likely that a local heavyweight shareholder was a key to regulatory approval.

Jetstar Hong Kong's real problems may only begin when the airline starts operations; there are high handling fees at Chek Lap Kok and as airport and slot capacity is already constrained. It may be hard to operate a full schedule at peak hours.

Burma or Myanmar?

7 June 2013

Since the 1989 decision to change the English name of the country from "Burma" to "Myanmar", adoption of the new name in the English-speaking world has been mixed. Use of "Burma" has remained widespread, largely based on the question of whether the regime has the legitimacy to change the country's name, particularly without a referendum.

This seems to be the position that Sky News has taken - arguing in twitter that it was the generals that changed the name rather than the people.

Which probably is irrelevant.

The English names "Burma" or "Myanmar" are both derived from the name of the majority Burmese Bamar ethnic group. Myanmar is considered to be the literary form of the name of the group, while Burma is derived from "Bamar", the colloquial form of the group's name.

Sky's Asia correspondent argued that: "Sky is taking its lead from the woman who made this transition possible. As an elected MP she called it Burma. People do too."

The trouble with this is that it simply makes Sky sound like they are hanging onto the rags of Empire. The United Nations, of which Myanmar is a member, endorsed the name change five days after its announcement in 1989.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the governments of China, India, Japan, Germany, and Russia recognise "Myanmar" as the official name.

Media usage is also mixed.

In spite of the the US government still using Burma (though they have started to use Myanmar), American news outlets including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The International Herald Tribune and CNN, and US-based international news agencies the Associated Press and Reuters have adopted the name "Myanmar".

Others do still use "Burma", including Voice of America, The Washington Post, and Time.

Like the British government, the BBC uses "Burma", though on the basis that its audience is more familiar with the name. The London-based Financial Times began using "Myanmar" in 2012. Some other sources, including NPR in the US and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, use terms such as "Myanmar, also known as Burma". On 19 November 2012, US President Barack Obama, accompanied by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her second visit to the country, referred to the nation as both Myanmar and Burma.

My view; the country's form of government is irrelevant. A country has the right to self-determination including deciding its name. If you take the Sky argument further then Iran would still be known as Persia.

How problems at DXB determine EK's future planning

7 June 2013

How EK grows over the next decade will largely be determined by issues with Dubai's airspace, parking space at DXB and DWC, and arrival and departure slots.

DWC is probably 15 years from being complete.

Between 2013 and 2028 it is quite possible that EK could double in size to over 250 destinations and 350 airplanes.

But there is neither the space or the runway capacity at DXB for this growth.

Moving LCCs, cargo and business traffic to DWC will help.

But for its own growth Emirates appears to be considering setting up a more prominent transpacific operation in what would be a slight twist to its business model. A transatlantic operation is already being developed.

The thinking is that Emirates could introducing flights through more intermediate points in Asia to destinations in North America. Emirates Airline President Tim Clark outlined this idea on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual general meeting in Cape Town, South Africa.

Clark declines to say what markets could be involved in the venture, but points out Singapore as one stopping point. The plan would rely on Emirates gaining fifth-freedom rights from the Asian points. Because of the shorter distances involved, the plan does not rely on the availability of longer-range aircraft such as the proposed Boeing 777-8X.

Emirates has previously made a move into long-haul one-stop flying by opening a Dubai-Hamburg-New York route, but pulled out again. “The timing probably was not right,” Clark said. The airline is about to introduce a Dubai-Milan-New York flight using Boeing 777-30ERs, because of high demand from the North Italian business community and the retrenchment of Alitalia’s long-haul flying out of Milan.

The transpacific operation would complement Emirates’ tie-up with Qantas, which also has significant exposure on the Australia-North America market.

The possible move into more offshore flying would coincide with increased limitations at the Dubai hub. Earlier predictions saw the airport reaching 90 million passengers a year in 2020, but with the Dubai economy and Emirates’ growth picking up quickly, the airport is now expected to reach that target by the end of 2016, or four years earlier than forecast.

And that will consume all the Terminal 4 space that is currently under construction.

According to Clark, it is not market demand that is becoming a limiting factor for Emirates’ growth, but the physical limitations of the Dubai hub. General aviation operations and some cargo flying, including Emirates’ own, are moving to the new DWC airport at Jebel Ali. Wizzair and NASAir will laundh passenger flights from DWC in late October. Clark also hopes that some of the Indian airlines that are not depending on onward connections in Dubai might be willing to move.

In reality flyDubai which itself continue to grow and is demanding new arrival ad departure slots, has to move there as well - though this is not discussed in the local media.

American freedom on the line


The fact that police have the right to monitor the communications of all its citizens – in secret – is a classic hallmark of a state that fears freedom

7 June 2013 - The Guardian

A few months before he was first elected president in 2008, Barack Obama made a calculation that dismayed many of his ardent supporters but which he judged essential to maintain his drive to the White House. By backing President Bush's bill granting the US government wide new surveillance powers – including legal immunity for telecoms companies which had co-operated with the Bush administration's post-9/11 programme of wiretapping without warrants – Mr Obama stepped back from an issue that had initially helped to define his candidacy but was now judged to threaten his national security credentials. It was a big call. Even so, it seems unlikely that either supporters or critics, or even Mr Obama himself, ever believed that five years later a re-elected President Obama would oversee an administration that stands accused of routinely snooping into the phone records of millions of Americans.

Yet that is the situation at the heart of the Guardian's exclusive story this week that America's immense National Security Agency is doing just this on Mr Obama's watch. The revelation that a secret order, issued by the secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, requires one of the largest telecoms providers in the US to provide a daily diet of millions of US phone records to the FBI, poses Americans with a major civil liberties challenge. Under the terms of the order, everything about every call made during a three month period – excepting only the calls' actual contents – is offered up to the bureau and the NSA on a gargantuan routine basis. It seems improbable that the order revealed yesterday is the only one of its kind. So the assumption has to be that this is the new normality of American state surveillance. The special courts set up to monitor and approve industrial data-harvesting appear to provide little check on the scale of the activity.

Few Americans believe that they live in a police state; indeed many would be outraged at the suggestion. Yet the everyday fact that the police have the right to monitor the communications of all its citizens – in secret – is a classic hallmark of a state that fears freedom as well as championing it. Ironically, the Guardian's revelations were published 69 years to the day since US and British soldiers launched the D-day invasion of Europe. The young Americans who fought their way up the Normandy beaches rightly believed they were helping free the world from a tyranny. They did not think that they were making it safe for their own rulers to take such sweeping powers as these over their descendants.

No one living in Britain should be naive about the reality of the terrorist threat against which such powers are deployed, least of all in the volatile aftermath of the Woolwich murder. Nor, in the light of the revelations from the US, ought we to be smug about the surveillance and data collection that goes on daily in our own midst too. By some readings, similar legal tools already exist here under the regulation of investigatory powers legislation. Both Conservative and Labour MPs have made clear they want new "snooper's charter" powers over email records. And western European security services, Britain's GCHQ monitoring agency in particular, have always regarded the ability to trade information with the US authorities as their life-blood.

But it is American civil liberties that are primarily in the spotlight now. Ever since 9/11, the US has allowed the war on terror to frame a new domestic authoritarianism that is strikingly at odds with America's passionate sense of its own freedom. This week's revelations have stunned millions of Americans whose justified outrage against 9/11 surely never led them to expect such routine and unrestrained surveillance on such a massive scale. US politicians have a poor post-9/11 record of confronting such powers. Even now, it is possible that many will look the other way. But this is an existential challenge to American freedom. That it has been so relentlessly prosecuted by a leader who once promised to stand up against such authority, makes the challenge more pressing, not less

 

Masters marks the end of the game as we used to know it

13 June 2013

I had not seen this article until yesterday. This was Colin Byrne's regular golf commentary for the Irish Times written after this year's Masters and published on 20 April.

Colin is a wise head and writes and speaks with huge common sense about the game. He is now caddying for Ernie Els after parting with Tom Lewis.

Colin's introduction stated that "the most talked about golf tournament in the world had a chance to take the high moral ground, instead it penalised a 14 year old Chinese kid."

"The 2013 Masters will be remembered as a milestone in the career of the victorious Adam Scott. He is sure now to go on to win more of the coveted Majors after his maiden victory last week.

Sadly the 2013 Masters will also be the tournament that marks the end of the game as we used to know it. The Augusta Committee invoked the new rule of golf , 33-7, in a situation where it was not intended to be used. Instead of the black-and-white nature of the rules of golf a new shade of grey has been added.

I am of course referring to the Tiger Woods incident on the 15th hole on Friday when he took an illegal drop, signed his card for an incorrect score and ended up finishing fourth in the tournament. As one senior player asked the media when questioned on the matter: “When is the last time you remember a player continuing to play in an event after he signed for a incorrect score?”

Answer: never.

We have all been victims of unwitting rule infringements. Unknowingly we have broken rules. In professional golf the rules are, or should I say were, harsh but fair, there was no compromise.

Ask Pádraig Harrington about the heart-breaking circumstances surrounding the incorrect signing of his scorecard at the Belfry in 2000, when he had an almost insurmountable lead going into the final round. It turned out that Michael Campbell had signed Harrington’s card twice and Harrington hadn’t signed it at all: a technical error but fatal in the rules of golf. Harrington was rightly disqualified.

The Masters is the only professional event of the year that is run by part-timers. There is always a chance of leniency when it comes to decisions on rules.

When it became obvious to the authorities that the outstanding young Chinese amateur Tianlang Guan was dragging his heals in the second round, they timed him. He was taking way too long, as he had done since he first teed up in Augusta on Thursday. He was harshly but fairly penalised a shot for slow play.

People argued sentimentally that he was only a kid, in his first Masters, was it really necessary to penalise him? It was a vital lesson for him to learn early in life. He will now either speed up or learn how to play the rule like so many of the seasoned slow-playing pros. Slow play is killing the game and the methods for dealing with it are useless. The culprits need to be singled out and dealt with.

So finally, it was muttered around the pristine Augusta driving range, the green jackets were taking the hard line on slow play.

Not so fast.

They were unfortunately presented with a real moral dilemma the following day and morality lost.

Hitting the almost perfect shot in golf is often a disaster because when you hit the flag -stick the chances are your ball will end up somewhere undesirable.

When Tiger hit the 15th flag- stick in his second round of course the worst happened. His ball went into the water.

What a cruel game to be so close to perfection and so heavily punished.


House of Saud: built on sand

3 June 2013 Guardian Editorial

It is difficult to overstate the turmoil sweeping today through the Middle East. The historic Muslim Sunni and Shia faultline, blithely reopened by the US invasion of Iraq, runs today from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea. Half a dozen conflicts rage in this area. No state nor border is immune from violent change. And yet, Saudi Arabia which bestrides the path of this faultline, appears an oasis of calm. Peace reigning in the House of Saud may well be illusory.

The kingdom has taken out insurance polices. Saudi Arabia has set a record state budget – $219bn to spend on welfare and infrastructure – twice the size of the original bailout offered to Greece. King Abdullah, who will be 90 this year, has just appointed his son, Prince Miteb, as head of a newly created National Guard ministry, one of a series of measures designed to pave the path of the succession. But the Saudi gerontocracy would be foolish to think the worst has been averted.

The warning signs are there for all to see. When two prominent human rights activists were given sentences in March which were harsh even by the kingdom's draconian standards – 10 years for charges which included sedition and giving inaccurate information to the media – the regime was denounced by the most popular cleric in the country. Salman al-Odah's "open letter" broke all taboos as his calls for reform were squarely directed at the royal family itself. "There is smoke and dust on the horizon. We are justified in worrying about what lies beyond. If the security agencies tighten their grip, it will only worsen the quagmire we are in and cut off all hope of reform," the cleric wrote. Odah's words, and such a public act of defiance, electrified the social media in the country, spreading far beyond his own 2.8m Twitter followers.

That letter marked the entry of an important constituency into the reform debate. No longer would it be dominated by beleaguered liberals and the suppressed Shia minority in the eastern provinces. Odah's all-too-public plea came from the Sunni Wahhabi heartland itself. The Saud-Wahhabi alliance remains the cornerstone of the regime's stability. Odah's letter meant the demand for reform is now entrenched across the sectarian divide.

The House of Saud is far from united itself. The line of succession which passed along the 20 surviving sons of King Abdul-Aziz al-Saud, five of whom became king, is rapidly running out of road, as ageing heirs drop off their gilded perch before they can inherit the crown. The next in line, Crown Prince Salman, 77 this year, stood in for King Abdullah at the last meeting of the Gulf Co-operation Council, but his contribution was limited. He is thought to be suffering from dementia. But this is unlikely to mean that the throne passes to the youngest of Abdul Aziz's sons, Prince Muqrin, as the succession is adjudicated on other opaque grounds by a body known as the Allegiance Council. Two of Muqrin's nephews, of whom Miteb is one, and Muhammed bin Nayef, the current interior minister, is another, are set to fight for the prize. No palace intrigue is complete without a power behind the throne, an uncrowned prince, a Cardinal Richelieu. That role is played by Khalid al-Tuwaijri, who, as president of the royal court and private secretary of the custodian of the two holy mosques, is the king's gatekeeper. He brought Prince Bandar back after a long period of absence to become the powerful chief of the Saudi General Intelligence. The Tuwaijri-Bandar axis has been key, along with United Arab Emirates' Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, in organising against the Muslim Brotherhood-led governments in the region.

This axis, however, is now facing opposition from other members of the Saudi royal family. Mohammed bin Nayef might emerge as an important counterweight. It is essential that the voice of reform is heeded in the transition that is about to take place. There is still an opportunity to change peacefully. Ignore it, and what happened elsewhere could well happen here too.


Emirates route rumours

31 May 2013

How about ending the month with some Emirates rumours. Well speculation really.

Firstly no 787s for EK and the Airbus A350-10 is still four years away. So expect some new orders at the Dubai AirShow in November - maybe even earlier at Paris.  Another top up order of 30 77Ws at DXB airshow to fill the developing minibus/classic T7 void.

And also a big launch order for the new 77X at above venue - although deliveries into service may not be until 2018.

The A380 will continue to replace the 777s on most flights to Australia and the USA. This requires the longer range, lighter weight HGW A380s to be delivered from March 14. Brisbane is already going A380 and the DXB/BNE/AKL flight and Perth will also move at least one of its flights to the A380 later this year.

Look for the A380 to replace 77s on IAH/LAX/DFW/SFO/IAD.

The 777s can then be deployed on new US expansion to DTW, PHL, BOS, MIA, ATL.
ORD will be the next US destination.

In Latam Rio will go non stop to suit the World cup and Olympics. Double daily is possible.

Buenos Aires will become a stop on the way to Santiago in Chile.

Asia - Bali through SIN as a shuttle. This has been discussed for at least the last year.

China. EK wants more. The authorities are not cooperating. Chengdu would be first. Opening up China would be a flood of new flights - Kunming, Shenzen, Chongqing, Tianjin, Xiamen. Xian would all be possible.

Elsewhere in Asia - Phnom Penh, Yangon and Hanoi must be on the radar. Taipei would probably do well but would require mainland blessing.

In Europe Oslo and Brussels. Stansted would also welcome a daily two class EK 777.
 
Growth is India flights depends of finalising the current bilateral negotiation. Expect more flights and more 777 flights as the A330s ad A340s are phased out.

Russia - Volgograd (Stalingrad).

Canada/Germany - so badly wanted by EK. So little political support. Change will come but slowly. A trickle not a flood.

Africa - new flights will be required as this Continent grows. Abuja, Mogadishu, Mombasa, Yaounde, Kinchasa, Windhoek.

Just guessing! And none of this will happen tomorrow. But EK needs the growth to support its business plans and its hub status.