rascott.com                                                                                 news, views and an occasional blog...


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email me: robert@rascott.com

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Please note that content this month has been greatly reduced due to self-imposed censorship while I am staying in Bangkok.

 

I stand in front of a ferris wheel (Hong Kong version)

27 May 2014

Most major cities have one thing in common: no, not crowded sidewalks and overpriced cocktails—a ferris wheel. From Chicago to Singapore, London to Tokyo, these towering structures are a popular skyline fixture around the world. Hong Kong is set to join the fun, with a ferris wheel slated to open on the Central Harbourfront this September.

How much will a ride cost? Ticket prices will be more expensive than similar observation wheels in Taiwan, Thailand and Japan, with each ride costing $100 for adults and $70 for children. So about the same as a train to the airport, or a drink in SoHo. That still seems pretty reasonable, though, considering The London Eye costs more than double the price at around $260 per ride.

The large ferris wheel will be located on the site outside Central Pier 9 and 10. Operators say there will be additional food and beverage outlets and publicly accessible space around the ferris wheel.

The 60-meter-tall ferris wheel will come with 42 carriages, each holding eight to 10 passengers. The operators expect a million visitors a year....only about 2,800 a day.

For comparison's sake, the London Eye is twice as tall, at 135 meters—towering over the surrounding buildings, which means it offers an awesome view of the city. It is the UK's top paid-for attraction, with a record 7.9 million people paying for a ride in the first six months of 2013.

It's not all fun and games for city ferris wheels, though: the Singapore Flyer, which is 165-meter-tall and surrounded by tall buildings, has been struggling to meet its financial goals and was placed under "receivership" last year, aka it's going bankrupt. It is not very accessible; and there really is not a lot to see.

Who's behind the ferris wheel in Hong Kong? Operators Swiss AEX won a three-year tenancy of the site a year ago. The site is still vacant for now, and the company will begin recruitment starting next month.

Life after another coup

28 May 2014

Why me? I was here for the 2006 coup; the 2008 airports occupation; the 2010 army shoot to kill and crackdown on the red shirt camp in Ratchaprasong and in 2013 as Suthep took to the streets and caused massive disruption throughout Bangkok.

Now we have another coup; people have genuinely lost count of how many there have been.

And this coup is about removing Thaksin, his family, his support and his voters from the land.  The coup leaders talk about reconciliation; but it will be reconciliation on their terms.

Readers (if there are any) will know that I have removed a great deal of material from this published page.

It will all be republished (as a historical record) rather than a series of timely updates and reports. But it will not be published until after I leave Thailand.

The military coup is in its seventh day; eight and a half if you count the brief period of martial law.

The media is muzzled and is operating under very cautious self-censorship. Me too. Why do otherwise?

Thailand has been a part of my life for twenty years. I have worked here; invested financially and emotionally; I have married into a Thai family; I hope to have a child who will have a Thai passport.

Yet so many people - coup apologists - tell foreigners to keep out of Thai affairs. That it is not our business.

25 million visitors come to Thailand each year.

Major international companies and organisations have significant operations in Thailand.

Of course if is our business to care about this country.

Millions of Thai jobs depend on foreign visitors and investments.

But the level of vitriol is simply not worth the effort of caring or trying to find a balanced, open and honest view of events here.

The military government is telling the foreign media and social media only to report the truth. But to the army there is only one truth - what we are told to believe; not what we see, or hear, or fear. The only truth is that spread by the army's public relations machine.  Social media is being heavily monitored. It frankly is not worth the risk of passing comment. There is no risk if you are living outside Thailand. But in Thailand the threat of being summoned to meet with the army and of facing a military court is real.

Meanwhile life goes on. Without difficulty. Provided you do not care about arrests, detentions, the loss of individual freedoms and the censorship or what you see, hear and read.

Businesses are operational. Resorts are operational. Airports are operational. And for now, and in many ways, Bangkok is safer than it was while the protestors were allowed to occupy the city. The yellow shirt and red shirt camps have been removed. Anti-coup protests are met with a strong army response.

But the unknown is what happens next? There will be an appointed prime minister and government. There will not be elections for at least a year, probably much longer and with a new constitution that ensures that a red shirt supported government cannot be elected.

How angry are the north and east of Thailand. Can and will people mobilise? Where are their leaders?

And of course there is one other issue which you will not read about here. Not for now. But its impact on the future of this country is hugely significant.

Reality check - Phuket is a dump

17 May 2014

The so called Pearl of the Andaman is basically a dump with a few decent resorts. It did not need to be this way.

It is easy to blame this on mass tourism; but that is not the issue. The fact is that people got greedy. There has been no effective planning of tourist infrastructure; there has been no regulation of construction; there have been no controls to eliminate greedy operators.

The crappy experience starts at Phuket's third world airport which has not had a dollar spent on it in decades.

Navigate through immigration and baggage claim and you walk into a wall of aggressive taxi touts. Get used to it - they are all over Phuket. Baht 1300 is the asking rate for a taxi to Patong. Over US$40. These are New York prices.

Walk to the end of the terminal building near the domestic arrivals area and there is a counter for meter taxis. This will still cost you Baht800.

And every time that you leave the hotel expect taxi touts to be calling at you from 100 yards away. This will not let up. Ignore them.

The next worst touts are the Indian tailors. They will try and grab you to get your attention and seem to think that they are entitles to this physical contact. Ignore them and they say you are rude and should respect them. Bullshit. They are miserably annoying people.

Out at night come the sex show touts on the busiest street in Patong - Soi Bangla. They are everywhere. Ignore them. But they should not be there at all. Years ago Phuket was safe from ping pong shows and worse. Sadly not now.

You want to get a taxi out for dinner or home afterwards; the tuk-tuk and taxi monopoly have control over public transport all over the island's holiday west coast. Anywhere in Patong will cost you Baht200 for the equivalent of a Baht35 fare in Bangkok. There are no hotel shuttles - the taxi mafia protect their monopoly forcibly.

The beaches should be Phuket's pride. The amount of garbage washed up on Patong's beaches is horrible. And there seems to be no clean up effort. Worse at the northern end of the beach there is a stream running from the town, under the road and into the sea. The smell is of raw pollution. You swim on that beach at your peril. And it is not the only beach on Phuket's west coast that is reported to have sewage issues.

Food; forgettable. In 20 years of going to Phuket I cannot remember a single quality meal.

City sites; no city planning; ramshackle construction; attractive resort next to uninhabited building shell; temporary bars, massage tables and beach lounger rental huts set up all along the beach front.

The trouble is that Phuket is almost entirely for foreign tourists; and Thai businesses of every sort get away with charging international prices for sub-standard products and services. Hua Hin and Pattaya are for instance very different markets that still attract large numbers of Thai visitors; who expect to pay Thai prices and who business need to encourage to return on a regular basis.

The new generation of tourists and business owners are the Russians. And there are tour agencies for this large group all over the island. They are the first group of business owners to really have made a stand against the entrenched Thai monopolies. This of course leads to huge unpleasantness between the Russian and Thai mafias. Ongoing.

If you want a nice resort there are plenty in Phuket. But leave the confines of the resort and you are subject to all that is bad about Phuket tourism. It should never have been allowed to get this bad.

The political impact of the Soma mining tragedy

16 May 2014

Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, faces public fury after the country’s worst-ever industrial accident. At least 282 miners died after an explosion at the Soma mine in the western province of Manisa on May 13th. Rescue workers battled to rescue hundreds more feared to be trapped in galleries where fires continued to rage. More than 350 were saved. Taner Yildiz, the energy minister, has declined to say exactly many people were inside the mine when the accident happened.

A crowd of angry mourners mobbed the prime minister's convoy as it drove through the streets. These working class conservative communities have always been the heartland of Erdogan's support. For him to face criticism here is unprecedented.

The prime minister delivered an insensitive speech bristling with self-defence. He told the relatives of dead and dying miners that "these types of incidents are ordinary things." This was nothing more a weak attempt to deflect any kind of responsibility for the blast in the wake of reports that the government ignored safety concerns about the privately owned mine, which were raised as recently as two weeks ago by opposition MPs.

The anger was echoed in cities across Turkey as thousands of people with coal-smeared faces took to the streets, carrying placards that read: "Soma was not an accident, it was a massacre." They called for the resignation of the energy minister, Taner Yıldız, and of Erdoğan himself.

Twitter, which Erdogan tried to ban earlier this year, has been used to spread of several damning photographs relating to the government's response to Soma, pre- and post-blast. One of these shows an opposition minister speaking in parliament on 29 April, brandishing a miner's hard hat and warning of poor conditions in the mine, as two AKP ministers chat among themselves in the background. Another, taken yesterday, shows the prime minister's adviser Yusuf Yerkel violently kicking a protester in Soma who was on the ground, already overpowered by a couple of gendarmes. Yerkel should immediately resign.

The labour ministry gave the Soma mine a clean bill of health in March. On a visit last year, Mr Yildiz, the energy minister, heaped praise on it.

Erdoğan's speech recounted a long list of mining disasters which have occurred abroad, stretching back to a British disaster in 1862 and lingering on accidents which have occurred in America, "which has every kind of technology". His advisers seemed to have spent precious hours researching foreign mining history instead of coming up with a detailed course of action to assure the public of Erdoğan's commitment to finding those both directly and indirectly responsible for the blast.

Erdoğan will survive what in most countries would be a serious PR disaster. His prickly self-defence is unlikely to fail him now, when he enjoys the fanatic support of almost half the population. But his response has been damaging. Citing 19th century mining disasters simply suggests that Turkey is a century behind the times.

Nearly 600 miners have died since 1983, before this week. “Eighty percent of these could have been avoided if necessary safety measures had been taken,” fumed Mahmut Arslan, chairman of the Hak Is workers’ confederation. “The priority is not safety but profitability.” Turkey’s economy is energy-hungry: the bill for energy imports is second to China’s.

Erdogan's critics, now led by Fethullah Gulen, Turkey’s most influential Muslim cleric, who commands an empire of schools and media outlets from self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania, will seize on the Soma tragedy. A campaign centred on corruption claims linking Mr Erdogan and his family to shady property deals and kickbacks from business cronies is said to have been masterminded by Gulenists in the police and in the judiciary. Mr Erdogan has launched what he admits is “a witch hunt”, demoting and reshuffling hundreds of Gulenists within the bureaucracy.

In Soma he warned against “extremists seeking to exploit this tragedy.” Yet even pro-AK commentators have called for the energy and labour ministers to go.

Even if they are not fired they need to resign out of respect for the 300 lives that they have failed to protect.

Emirates to delay hub move until 2024 after Dubai study - maybe

11 March 2014 - Bloomberg

Emirates Airline, will not be asked to move to Dubai’s new super-hub until 2024, avoiding disruption to its growth as it takes delivery of the world’s biggest fleet of wide-body jets.

Dubai’s Al Maktoum airport, which opened in October and is targeting a capacity of 228mn passengers at a cost of 156.8bn dirhams ($43bn), should instead become an interim base for local low-cost carrier FlyDubai, according to the preferred scenario of a government-sponsored strategy study obtained by Bloomberg News.

The plan would see FlyDubai transfer to Al Maktoum from Dubai International airport next year, before making the switch in reverse in a decade’s time, the document suggests. That would allow Emirates to expand its current base at Dubai International for the maximum possible period, after earlier plans envisaged a move to the new super-hub as early as 2020.

“The preferred transition scenario has the ability to maintain full utilisation of Dubai International while reducing the major build at Al Maktoum for the Emirates hub,” the study says. Construction of a dedicated Emirates terminal at the new airport could be staged, with the building initially housing “spill” from foreign airlines until a “one-go Emirates move” following its completion in 2023-2024.

The masterplan is still under discussion and has yet to be approved, a Dubai Airports spokesman said.

“Such decisions rest with the government,” FlyDubai chief executive officer Ghaith al-Ghaith said in an e-mailed response to questions. An Emirates spokeswoman also said the decision and timing of its hub swap is a matter for the government.

The 62-page study from Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects, a government body tasked with overseeing infrastructure work, suggests the territory’s airports will attract about 103mn passengers by 2020, compared with 66mn last year, rising to 167mn in 2030 and a possible 222mn by 2045.

Dubai International alone would be unable to absorb the projected increase in passengers beyond 2018, the report says.

Unlike most of the world’s fastest-growing hubs, which tap surging economies in emerging markets, Dubai is largely reliant on passengers travelling between other countries as Emirates exploits an advantageous geographical location to establish Dubai as a crossroads for intercontinental travel.

Emirates anticipates that its annual passenger count will reach 70mn by 2020. Founded in 1985, the carrier has a fleet of more than 200 aircraft, 44 of them A380 superjumbos, plus almost 400 jets on order worth $160bn at list prices.

The fledgling Al Maktoum site’s sole passenger terminal currently has capacity for 7mn people, increasing to about 10mn next year to permit the move by FlyDubai and some foreign carriers, and reaching 20mn in 2018 or 2019.

After 2024 FlyDubai will have the option of moving all flights back to Dubai International or keeping some at the Al Maktoum terminal and operating a split-base model.

The first stage of Al Maktoum’s second terminal, for use by Emirates, is slated to open in 2019 with a capacity of 10mn passengers. Foreign carriers will initially occupy the site before being required to move to Dubai International after 2024, though some could switch to the FlyDubai terminal at Al Maktoum if the discount carrier opts to exit completely.

Al Maktoum’s overall passenger capacity will reach 31mn in 2018, by which time spending will have reached 31.2bn dirhams, including 5.5bn dirhams earmarked for expanding Dubai International to its final capacity.

By 2025, Al Maktoum’s capacity will have jumped to 133mn in time for the Emirates move, with a spend of 94.6bn dirhams. Further enhancements will lift the total to 152mn passengers by 2029 and 228mn by 2034.

Notes from Tokyo

10 May 2014

Some thoughts after three days on my own in Tokyo:

1. I am tired. You can walk forever in this city. It is safe and always interesting. And their is usually a rail line somewhere near by.
2. I have found new rail lines that I never knew existed.
3. The Japanese need to have a massive anti-smoking campaign. And they need to stop smoking in bars and restaurants.
4. Tokyo is not expensive. My hotel room - albeit a single room - US$70 a night. Dinner each night - less than US$20. One was a takeaway with a bottle or wine; one Japanese and one in a British pub with two happy hour gin and tonics.
5. The Tokyo dome is in a great location in the centre of this huge city with excellent rail connections and an adjacent mall and theme park. Exactly how a sports and entertainment venue should be.
6. Such a miraculously clean city.
7. The Sumida river cruise is the dullest capital city river ride on our planet.
8. Evenings are not much fun on your own. I don't really want to sit for long alone in a restaurant. Someone needs to write "The single foreigner's guide to staying sane in Tokyo."
9. How do male Japanese school-teachers concentrate?
10. Don Quijote. Buy anything at any time.
11. Always somewhere new to explore - Tokyo is more a collection of villages (big and small) all connected. And everyone of them has a different personality.
12. Face masks are not a pleasing fashion statement.
13. Shrines next to modernity.
14. Incomprehensible bright lights.
15. Never getting hassled by sales staff in a store.
16. My three best nights sleep in a long time. In the smallest room I have slept in for a long time.
17. Showcases of plastic food.
18. Excellent coffee shops.
19. Moments and places of incredible calm.
20. Shinjuku station. A marvel of mass transit efficiency for millions of people each day.
21. 7-11s and many similar stores - and always close by.
22. That in a city of twenty million it is clear that close friendships matter and are valued.

 Emirates results form a stable base for more growth

8 May 2014

The Emirates group has announced its full year results today for the year to 31 March 2014.

Emirates profit soars 43% to Dh3.3bn; Revenue up 13% to Dh82.6bn roared Emirates 24/7.Good yes. But profit margins are less than half the 2010 and 2011 levels.

Once again the second half of the year generates more revenue but lower profitability that the summer months. But not as shocking as last year.

And this year there is a small profit share. Although this is being paid despite the group not meeting its target.

Emirates Results excluding DNATA in AED billions y/e 31 March
2104
6m to 31 Mar
2014
6m to 30 Sept
 2013
y/e 31 March
 2103
6m to 31 Mar
2013
6m to 30 Sept 2012 y/e 31 Mar
2012
y/e 31 March
2011
y/e 31 March 2010
Revenue including other operating income 82.6 42.8 39.8 73.1 37.7 35.4 62.3 54.2 43.5
Profit Attributable to Owner 3.3 1.6 1.7 2.3 0.6 1.7 1.5 5.4 3.5
Costs:
Fuel Costs 30.7 27.9 24.3 16.8 11.9
Staff Costs 10.2 9.0 7.9 7.6 6.3
Profit attributable to shareholder as % of revenue 4.0% 3.7% 4.3% 3.1% 1.6% 4.8% 2.4% 10.0% 8.1%
Passengers flown 44.5 23.0 21.5 39.4 20.7 18.7 34.0 31.4 27.4
Load factor 79.4% 79.2% 79.7% 80% 80% 80% 78.1%
Total Group Revenue 87.8 45.5 42.3 77.5 39.3 38.2 67.4 57.4 45.4
Total Group profit attributable to owner 4.1 1.9 2.2 3.1 1.0 2.1 2.3 6.0 4.2
Group Profit Share Target 4.255billion 3.5 billion     6.0 billion ?
Bonus 3 weeks Zero Zero 12 weeks ?

The full year Group Profit for the year ended 31 March 2014 was AED 4.1 billion.

"Our profits increased to Dhs4.08 billion meeting the profit share target and a three-week profit share has been declared" said the Chairman - which is interesting as the profit share announced last year was a AED4.255 billion!

The profit share target for the financial year 2014-15 is Dhs3.7 billion.

Perhaps the best news in these results is that there really are no surprises. Load factors are still good despite a significant increase in the fleet size with 24 new airplanes received in the year - including 16 A380s.

"It might be easy to see this as de rigeur for Emirates," said John Strickland, director of London-based independent air transport consultancy JLS Consulting quoted in the Wall Street Journal. "But in a year where competition has increased strongly and capacity has grown dramatically, it's no small achievement to keep load factors so high and increase profitability too."

Thai AirAsia X ready to launch

5 May 2014

Thai AirAsia X will launch operations with daily Bangkok Don Mueang to Seoul Incheon flights beginning June 17. Speaking at the AirAsia subsidiary's unveiling to the public last week, airline CEO Nadda Buranasri said additional flights to Tokyo Narita (daily) and Osaka Kansai (5x weekly) would follow in July.

Nadda added that long-term expansion plans would hinge on there being greater socio-political stability in Thailand which, over the last six months, has been rocked by violent anti-government protests. AirAsia Group CEO Tony Fernandes has in the past hinted at using a Bangkok base as a launching point for the airline's planned routes to Europe.

Despite the lifting of a nationwide State of Emergency last month, official figures show Thailand's tourist arrivals dipped almost 6% between January to March.

Thai AirAsia X currently operates a single A330-300 HS-XTA (cn 662) on charter flights but is expected to grow its fleet of A330-300s later this year with destinations in China also being considered.

Abhisit's "Reform under the Constitution" plan is "under the Constitution" in the same way the PDRC is "Democratic" i.e. not at all.

And reformed massage king Chuwit simply said that "If Abhisit & Suthep stop and do nothing today, the country will return to normal tomorrow" which is just about right!

The problem for Abhisit in a nutshell is that under the existing constitution a judicial coup just leads to an election which the Democrats once again cannot win. So here instead is a desperate attempt to rewrite the constitution which was already stacked in the Democrats favour in 2007.

What would America fight for?

3 May 2014 The Economist

“Why is it that everybody is so eager to use military force?” America’s cerebral president betrayed a rare flash of frustration on April 28th when dealing with a question in Asia about his country’s “weakness”. Barack Obama said his administration was making steady, if unspectacular, progress. By blundering into wars, his critics would only harm America.

Mr Obama was channelling the mood of his people, worn out by the blood and treasure squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan. A survey last autumn by the Pew Research Centre suggests that 52% want the United States to “mind its own business internationally”, the highest figure in five decades of polling. But when America’s president speaks of due caution, the world hears reluctance—especially when it comes to the most basic issue for any superpower, its willingness to fight.

For America’s most exposed allies that is now in doubt. For decades, America’s security guarantee used to underpin Japan’s foreign policy; now, on his Asian tour, Mr Obama has had to reassure Japan that it can count on America if China seizes the disputed Senkaku islands (which China calls the Diaoyus). After his tepid backing for intervention in Libya and Mali and his Syrian climbdown, Israel, Saudi Arabia and a string of Gulf emirates wonder whether America will police the Middle East. As Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, disrupts Ukraine, eastern Europeans fret that they are next.

Each situation is different, but in the echo-chamber of global politics they reinforce each other. The Asians note that in 1994, in exchange for surrendering nuclear weapons, Ukraine received a guarantee from Russia, America and Britain that its borders were safe. The Baltic countries remember the red lines crossed in Syria. Arab princes and Chinese ambassadors count the Republican senators embracing isolationism. Together, these retreats plant a nagging suspicion among friends and foes that on the big day America simply might not turn up.

Admittedly, deterrence always has some element of doubt. Between the certainty that any president will defend America’s own territory and the strong belief that America would not fight Russia over Ukraine lies an infinite combination of possibilities. A lot depends on how each incident unfolds. But doubt has spread quickly in that middle ground—and it risks making the world a more dangerous, nastier place.

Already, regional powers are keener to dominate their neighbours. China is pressing its territorial claims more aggressively, Russia interfering more brazenly. In 2013 Asia outspent Europe on arms for the first time—a sign that countries calculate they will have to stand up for themselves. If Mr Obama cannot forge a deal with Iran, the nightmare of nuclear proliferation awaits the Middle East. Crucially, doubt feeds on itself. If next door is arming and the superpower may not send gunboats, then you had better arm, too. For every leader deploring Mr Putin’s tactics, another is studying how to copy them.

Such mind games in the badlands of eastern Ukraine and the South China Sea may feel far away from Toledo or Turin. But the West will also end up paying dearly for the fraying of the global order. International norms, such as freedom of navigation, will be weakened. Majorities will feel freer to abuse minorities, who in turn may flee. Global public goods, such as free trade and lower cross-border pollution, will be harder to sustain. Global institutions will be less pliable. Americans understandably chafe at the ingratitude of a world that freeloads on the economic, diplomatic and military might of the United States. But Americans themselves also enjoy the exorbitant privilege of operating in a system that, broadly, suits them.

The critics who pin all the blame on Mr Obama are wrong. It was not he who sent troops into the credibility-sapping streets of Baghdad. More important, America could never sustain the extraordinary heights of global dominance it attained with the collapse of the Soviet Union. As China grew into a giant, it was bound to want a greater say. And the president has often made the right call: nobody thinks he should have sent troops to Crimea, despite the breaking of the 1994 agreement.

Yet Mr Obama has still made a difficult situation worse in two ways. First, he has broken the cardinal rule of superpower deterrence: you must keep your word. In Syria he drew “a red line”: he would punish Bashar Assad if he used chemical weapons. The Syrian dictator did, and Mr Obama did nothing. In response to Russia’s aggression, he threatened fierce sanctions, only to unveil underwhelming ones. He had his reasons: Britain let him down on Syria, Europe needs Russian gas, Congress is nervous. But the cumulative message is weakness.

Second, Mr Obama has been an inattentive friend. He has put his faith in diplomatic coalitions of willing, like-minded democracies to police the international system. That makes sense, but he has failed to build the coalitions. And using diplomacy to deal with the awkward squad, such as Iran and Russia, leads to concessions that worry America’s allies. Credibility is about reassurance as well as the use of force.

Credibility is also easily lost and hard to rebuild. On the plus side, the weakened West, as we dubbed it after the Syrian debacle, is still stronger than it thinks. America towers above all others in military spending and experience (see article). Unlike China and Russia, it has an unrivalled—and growing—network of alliances. In the past few years Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam and the Philippines have all moved towards it, seeking protection from China. And events can sway perceptions. Back in 1991 George Bush senior’s pounding of Saddam Hussein vanquished talk of America’s “Vietnam syndrome”.

But there will be no vanquishing as long as the West is so careless of what it is losing. Europeans think they can enjoy American security without paying for it. Emerging-world democracies like India and Brazil do even less to buttress the system that they depend on. America is preoccupied with avoiding foreign entanglements. Mr Obama began his presidency with the world wondering how to tame America. Both he and his country need to realise that the question has changed.


Northern Ireland: power of the past


2 May 2014 - Editorial - The Guardian, Friday 2 May 2014


The kidnapping, murder and secret burial of Jean McConville in 1972 was one of the most notorious IRA crimes of the Northern Ireland Troubles. Gerry Adams, whose IRA role is widely assumed though always denied, is one of the key architects of the peace process, which is in turn one of the great domestic political achievements of the last 20 years. So the president of Sinn Féin's arrest on Wednesday in connection with the murder puts him at the place where the legitimate need for justice for the McConvilles intersects inescapably with the equally legitimate need for Northern Ireland peace – a need close to the heart of the national interest of both Ireland and Britain. The question facing every participant in this hugely important dual process is therefore how both these legitimate needs can be best satisfied within the rule of law and amid continuing public and political order.

There is no question what ought to happen in principle. The McConville case should be fully investigated without fear or favour. All those connected with the crime in any way should be interviewed. Charges should be weighed in the usual way and brought if the prosecutors think there is a good prospect of conviction. Those convicted after due process should be punished. The McConville family, whose interviews in the past 24 hours cannot fail to have touched all who heard them, should then be able to know that justice has been done and to live in peace, along with their friends and communities. That would be the best and the right course.

But things are not as simple as that in the still polarised and still violent world of Northern Ireland sectarianism – and it is naive to pretend otherwise. Michael McConville, one of the murdered woman's sons, made chillingly clear in his powerful interview that he had not and would not identify his mother's killers, even today, because of the fear that the IRA would revenge themselves on his family some time in the future. He spoke of what he knew, having been the victim of an IRA kidnapping and beating when he was just 11, shortly after his mother's disappearance.

This is not a fear that can be wished away, however much it may be hoped that a conviction for the murder should now be secured. The reality is that dissident republicans have the means and the will to kill civilians, even now. And any convictions of former IRA volunteers in such a case could add to the dissidents' numbers, and the threat. The dangers of further escalation, and the political consequences, are obvious. These considerations should not stop the investigation. But they make it harder for the investigations to succeed. And they cannot be dismissed.

So the future of the McConville investigation will not be a simple matter, whatever the immediate outcome of the questioning of Mr Adams and however much political opponents of Sinn Féin, and neutrals, may wish it otherwise. Everything connected with the Northern Ireland Troubles and peace process is politicised. Sinn Féin believe that the timing of the arrest is malicious, given the European parliamentary elections in three weeks' time. Such suspicions are not going to disappear.

That is why, regardless of the progress of the investigation, it is so important for Northern Ireland's parties and civic groups to return to the question of dealing with the legacy of the violent past. That question must surely involve a variety of means, including offering choices to victims that go beyond criminal justice solutions, as the Northern Ireland victims' commissioner argued on Thursday. These difficult matters were left unresolved when the talks chaired by Richard Haass broke down in the new year. The cost of that failure is now daily more obvious. These are hard questions and stances should not, if possible, be allowed to harden either. Compromises and flexibility, distasteful in some cases, will be an inevitable ingredient of any solution. But this is very urgent business, as riots about flags, rows about "on-the-runs" and now the current events in the McConville case all show.

Doha's new airport - some real competition for Dubai

30 April 2014

Hamad International Airport (HIA) received its first passengers today.

Ten airlines are initially operating out of the $17 billion facility; Biman Bangladesh Airlines, flydubai, Air Arabia, Iran Air, Air India Express, Yemenia Airways, Pakistan International Airlines, Nepal Airlines, Syrian Air and Pegasus Airlines. All other carriers are due to make the switch on May 27.

HIA contains 41 widebody aircraft contact gates (which will rise to 65 on final completion), together with over 25,000sqm of retail space (104 retail outlets and 30 cafes/restaurants), passenger lounges and parking. Other features include a new Emiri (royal) Terminal complex for VIP flights with additional hardstands, cargo terminal buildings, aircraft hangars and associated airline and airport ancillary features. The complex will include an airport hotel and 100-room transit hotel.

The airport is on reclaimed land just north of the existing Doha airfield which is simply inadequate to support and sustain the growth of Qatar Airways. The current airfield has no airbridges; passengers are taken to and from flights by bus. And the transit facilities are woeful.

Hamad International Airport (HIA) will transform the transit experience in Doha and will make flights with Qatar Airways a far more enjoyable experience. At last this is some storng regional competition for Emirates and Dubai.