H1N1 - don't panic - yet

30 April 2009

The World Health Organisation last night raised its swine flu global epidemic threat level to phase five – the second highest – as a result of the increasing number of people being confirmed as infected with the virus across the globe.

Phase five indicates the disease is able to spread easily between humans and is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent. It can lead to governments bringing in measures to prevent its spread, including travel restrictions and trade limitations.

The next phase, six, is a full-blown pandemic, characterised by outbreaks in at least two regions of the world.

The increase in threat level comes after a 23-month-old Mexican child died in Texas, becoming the first person to die from swine flu outside the country of origin; while in Spain officials confirmed the first case of the disease in a person who has not travelled to Mexico.

There is a danger of massive over - reaction. Flu in one type or another occurs every year and kills every year; mainly the old and infirm and babies who do not have sufficient immunity early in life.

Swine flu is a bit of a misnomer and pigs are getting a bad name. There appears to be no connection between pigs and the transfer of flu to humans.

Yet Egypt has ordered that all 300,000 pigs in the country be slaughtered even though there hasn't been a single case of swine flu there is no evidence that pigs have spread the disease. Britain, with only five cases, is trying to buy 32 million masks. And in the United States, President Barack Obama said more of the country's 132,000 schools may have to be closed.

At airports from Japan to South Korea to Greece and Turkey, thermal cameras were trained on airline passengers to see if any were feverish. And Lebanon has discouraged traditional Arab kiss-on-the-cheek greetings, even though no one has come down with the virus there.

Yet world health experts say many of these measures may not stop the disease from spreading.

In Germany, where officials confirmed three cases, Lufthansa announced that starting Thursday it will put a doctor aboard all flights to Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak.

Experts said that makes sense: The doctors will be able to field questions from uneasy passengers and tend to anyone who might fall ill.

The World Health Organization said total bans on travel to Mexico — such as one imposed by Argentina, which hasn't had any confirmed cases — were questionable because the virus is already fairly widespread.

The French health minister said she would ask the European Union to suspend all flights to Mexico at a meeting Thursday in Luxembourg. Travel bans were effective during the 2003 outbreak of SARS in Asia, because that illness could be transmitted only by people who already show symptoms. With flu, by contrast, the incubation period ranges from 24 hours to four days, meaning people often are infectious before they have symptoms.

Health officials don't know enough about swine flu right now to say what the precise incubation period is, but if it's similar to other flu, people are likely able to spread it before they're sick.

The WHO has said that it does not recommend closing of borders and does not recommend restrictions of travel adding that closing borders or restricting travel would have very little impact on stopping the movement of this virus."

Unlike bird flu, where the H5N1 strain that spread to humans was widespread in bird populations and officials worried about people's exposure to infected birds, WHO says there is no similar concern about pigs — and no evidence that people have contracted swine flu by eating pork or handling pigs.

The WHO is clear that there is no association between pigs and the disease in humans.

But that hasn't stopped governments from banning pig products including the UAE.  

Swine flu really is a bad name; the virus is not food-borne and has nothing to do with eating or handling pork.

Closing schools and stopping public events and gatherings may be necessary and may help to contain the spread of disease. Epidemiologists call it "social distancing," and the idea is simple: If you keep people who have the virus away from others, you can stop the chain of transmission.

The flu virus is airborne and spread through tiny particles — mostly through sneezing and coughing. That helps explain why governments worldwide have been distributing millions of face masks, even though the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and other agencies have questioned their effectiveness. The masks have a short life; when damp are useless, and may not protect you from the tiniest of particles anyway.

Some doctors warn masks might even be harmful, causing people to take risks — like venturing into crowds or neglecting to wash hands — in the mistaken belief the mask protects them. More expensive high filtration masks like those used by health professionals can filter out fine particles carried in the air, but even these must be used properly to give real protection.

Other measures, such as installing thermal cameras at airports to screen passengers from infected countries, are simply inconclusive. Scanners were set up across Asia during the SARS outbreak, but officials aren't sure they caught any cases. WHO says the usefulness of such devices is debatable. But they look like people are doing something and part of this is about reassurance.

The new virus has genes from North American swine influenza, avian influenza, human influenza and a form of swine influenza normally found in Asia and Europe, said Nancy Cox, chief of the CDC's Influenza Division. As always with a new virus there is no immunisation available.

Influenza is basically an extreme upper respiratory infection, and, by itself, is rarely fatal. But it can lead to deadly complications, such as pneumonia. About 36,000 Americans die from flu complications every year.

The greater death toll to date in Mexico probably is due to the fact that the country may have had cases for several months now and probably have a greater number of people who have the disease.

To avoid spreading flu further in Mexico almost all of Mexico City's estimated 30,000 restaurants have shut, with just a few operating a skeleton service for take-outs. Of all the edicts which have turned this metropolis of 20m people into a ghost town the one on eateries seems the most resented.

Mexico's president, Felipe Calderon, has now told citizens to stay home from Friday for a five-day partial shutdown of the economy.

Some 159 people are thought to have died in Mexico and 2,498 are suspected to have the virus. A mercifully small number of victims so far, given the apocalyptic warnings, but the economic impact has been brutal and with tourism wiped out Mexico will be hurting for some time to come.

The business chamber says the shutdown is costing Mexico City $57m a day.

The best you can do: to avoid infecting others, ill people should stay home, avoid crowds, cover their mouth when they cough or sneeze, and wash their hands before touching eyes, nose or mucus membranes. Those who want to avoid infection should do the same.

EK 407 - the untold story

30 April 2009

What is clear from the ATSB's rather dry factual report is that Emirates flight EK 407 and the 275 people on board were seconds and centimetres from a catastrophic accident.

The take-off went badly wrong after the pilots entered the wrong weight figures into the flight management computers suggesting that the airplane was 100 tonnes under the true weight.

Full thrust was not engaged until they reached the end of the 3657 metre runway and the airplane hit navigational antennas and lights at a velocity of 290.8 kmh.

There are scrape marks on the grass after the end of the runway. A few more seconds and this plane would not have left the ground.

No-one was injured. The jet may have been damaged beyond repair and the pilots have "resigned" from Emirates.

The airline is quoted by the ATSB as saying it will review some of its procedures.

A summary of the take off follows:

Runway 16 is 3657 metres long. The timings per the report are as follows:

11.30.49 Brakes released, 3540 metres to go.

11.31.55 Over a minute later rotation starts, 886 metres to go.

11.31.57 Nose gear uncompressed (off ground), 727 metres to go.

11.32.03 First of three tail strikes, captain orders full power TOGA, 229 metres left.

11.32.03 Levers moved to TOGA detent, 0 metres.

11.32.07 Main wheels uncompressed, 115 metres beyond end of runway.

11.32.09 Positive climb begins, 292 metres past end of runway (where the ground falls gradually below airport height).

11.32.46 Landing gear retracted.

The more detailed analysis of the critical moments as detailed by the preliminary accident report shows that:

The jet was using (as almost all airliners do) a reduced thrust "flexible" take off process that saves on engine wear and tear but is calculated to produce a safe takeoff, even with an engine failure, on the runway available, provided the data used by the flight management computers is the RIGHT data.

It began its take off roll with 3540 metres of the 3657 metre runway available. Not until 61 seconds later does the first officer start to rotate the nose of the jet up with 964 metres of runway left after a very leisurely take off roll.

The ATSB graphic shows 5 separate tail strikes; 3 on the runway and 2 on grass.

About a second later the nose of the jet is pulled back much harder and higher. Eight seconds after this with 229 metres of runway left the first of three damaging tail strikes occur.

Two seconds later the jet has run out of runway and is has hit lights and antennas in an extreme nose high attitude.

Almost immediately, and 115 metres past the end of the runway the main gear wheels register as "uncompressed" meaning they off the ground.

Seconds later and 292 metres beyond the end of the runway and over falling ground a positive rate of climb is achieved.

But almost a minute passes before the wheels are retracted, cleaning up the air flow of the jet and aiding its ability to climb.

The captain had flown for 98.9 hours in the previous 30 days. This is not unusual at EK but is apparently 20 hours longer than most Qantas pilots might expect from a roster. The first officer had racked up 89.7 duty hours.

What did happen in the cockpit; what was said; how many distractions were there; there were four pilots in the cockpit at the time. Did the crew follow standard operating procedures? If yes; why did these procedures not double check and catch the incorrect data entry. Should there be some sort of data check against the load sheet.

Should the airliner software not recognise that a 14 hour ULH flight with a full load of passengers would be at near maximum gross take-off weight rather than 100 tonnes lighter; is this a design issue with the less paper cockpit created by Airbus?

There are many questions left unanswered; Emirates itself has been less than open in discussing the incident. In the end it appears that the passengers and crew had an amazing escape.

ATSB's factual report fails to say why?

30 April 2009

The preliminary report into the Emirates tail-strike incident at Melbourne Airport on 20 March was released today.

This is the ATSB's abstract of the report:

"At 2231 Eastern Daylight-saving Time, an Airbus A340-500 aircraft, registered A6-ERG, commenced the take-off roll on runway 16 at Melbourne Airport on a scheduled, passenger flight to Dubai, United Arab Emirates with 257 passengers, 14 cabin crew and four flight crew. The takeoff was planned as a reduced-power takeoff and the first officer was the handling pilot for the departure.

At 2231:53, the captain called for the first officer to rotate. The first officer attempted to rotate the aircraft, but it did not respond immediately with a nose-up pitch. The captain again called 'rotate' and the first officer applied a greater nose-up command. The nose of the aircraft was raised and the tail made contact with the runway surface, but the aircraft did not begin to climb. The captain then selected TOGA on the thrust levers, the engines responded immediately, and the aircraft commenced a climb.

The crew notified air traffic control of the tail strike and that they would be returning to Melbourne. While reviewing the aircraft's performance documentation in preparation for landing, the crew noticed that a take-off weight, which was 100 tonnes below the actual take-off weight of the aircraft, had inadvertently been used when completing the take-off performance calculation. The result of that incorrect take-off weight was to produce a thrust setting and take-off reference speeds that were lower than those required for the actual aircraft weight.

The aircraft subsequently landed at Melbourne with no reported injuries. The tail strike resulted in substantial damage to the tail of the aircraft and damaged some airport lighting and the instrument
landing system.

As a result of the accident, the aircraft operator has advised the Australian Transport Safety Bureau that it is reviewing a number of procedures including human factors involved in take-off performance data entry.

The investigation is continuing."

The full report can be found here.

The report fails to answer the key question of how the wrong take-off weight came to be punched into the aircraft's flight computer.

As the Sun Herald newspaper says in its commentary "Irrespective of how it happened, the 224 people aboard the Airbus A340-500 jetliner that scraped its tail taking off on that March evening have the skills of the pilot and first officer to thank for saving their lives. Getting the big jet airborne, when it weighed 100 tonnes more than the flight control computer allowed for the take-off, was no mean feat."

What the report does not tell us is how the wrong weight settings came to be calculated. There is no commentary on the contents of the CVR; or of any distraction to the operating pilots, or of any divergence from the airline's standard operating procedures which should catch any such error in data input.

In its report, the ATSB acknowledged that it was being assisted by other agencies, including United Arab Emirates General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA), the French Bureau d'Enquetes et d'Analyses (BEA).

One of these bodies has to come up with the answer.

And what about the flight crew? The ATSB interviewed the crew immediately after the accident before they were rushed out of Australia and back to Emirates headquarters in Dubai where they were asked to resign.

Again, no comment from the ATSB on its access to the operating crew and whether Emirates dismissal of the pilots was appropriate.

The report is surprisingly lightweight; it suggests that there will be a number of months more work before a final report is issued. It is hard to comprehend why this takes so long given that investigators have had access to the operating crews, recording systems and to an intact airplane. This should be one of the easier airliner investigations.
 

Obama needs to take action over NYC flyby

28 April 2009

Some of Obama's people are not with the program. If they are not with the program they need to be asked to leave.

Monday's stunt was idiocy. Dont blame Obama - he did not know. But blame the White House culture that does not yet get the message.

Air Force Ones buzzed New York on Monday. It was supposed to be a photo op that captured images of an Air Force One plane with a majestic Statue of Liberty in the background. Instead, it turned into a public relations nightmare that led to recriminations from the president and mayor and prompted thousands of others to ask, "What were they thinking?"

Just before the workday began on Monday, an airliner and supersonic fighter jet zoomed past the lower Manhattan skyline. Within minutes, startled financial workers streamed out of their offices, fearing a nightmarish replay of Sept. 11.

For a half-hour, the Boeing 747 and F-16 jet circled the Statue of Liberty and the Financial District near the World Trade Center site. Offices evacuated. Dispatchers were inundated with calls. Witnesses thought the planes were flying dangerously low.

But the flyover was nothing but a photo op, apparently one of a series of flights to get pictures of the plane in front of national landmarks. At what cost. In this crisis this looks like ridiculous waste.

The flyby was carried out by the Defense Department with little warning. Even Mayor Michael Bloomberg didn't know about it, and he later called it "insensitive" to fly so near the site of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The director of the White House military office, Louis Caldera, took the blame a few hours later. One of the planes was a 747 that is called Air Force One when used by the president. Caldera needs to resign. This was stupid.

"Last week, I approved a mission over New York. I take responsibility for that decision," Caldera said. "While federal authorities took the proper steps to notify state and local authorities in New York and New Jersey, it's clear that the mission created confusion and disruption. I apologize and take responsibility for any distress that flight caused." not good enough Mr. President. You need the Donald Trump approach. Fire someone and send out a message.

The FAA apparently notified the New York Police Department of the flyover, telling them photos of the Air Force One jet would be taken about 1,500 feet above the Statue of Liberty around 10 a.m. Monday. It had a classified footnote that said, "Information in this document shall not be released to the public or the media." Why? 9/11 is still fresh in our memories.

The FAA also alerted an official in the mayor's office, but he didn't tell Bloomberg, who said he first learned about it when his "BlackBerry went off crazy with people complaining about it."

The Bloomberg official who was notified was Marc Mugnos, director of operations for the Office of Citywide Event Coordination and Management. Mugnos didn't immediately respond to questions about why he didn't tell the mayor; idiot. Bloomberg's spokesman Stu Loeser issued a statement saying: "He has been reprimanded and a disciplinary letter will be placed in his file."

Workers in lower Manhattan were stunned by what they saw.

John Leitner, a floor trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange Building, said about 1,000 people "went into a total panic" and ran out of the building around 10 a.m. after seeing the planes whiz by.

Mayor Bloomberg summed up the concern saying “Why the Defense Department wanted to do a photo-op right around the site of the World Trade Center catastrophe defies imagination,” he said. “Had I known about it, I would have called them right away and asked them not to. It is the federal government, and they can do in the end what they please, but I would have tried to stop it.”

About as brainless (on very level) as you can get.

Playing with numbers

28 April 2009

According to Arabian Business people are still flocking to live and work in the UAE with hundreds of thousands more residency visas being issued than cancelled, according to the new figures released by the labour minister. This if course is manipulative nonsense though it makes no sense that the media is not challenging the numbers.

Data presented by Saqr Ghobash, minister of labour for the UAE, show that around 200,000 more residency permits have been issued in the last six months than have been cancelled.

From October last year to the end of March this year a total of 405,000 residency visas were cancelled across the Emirates. This includes renewals.

In reality, many leavers have not cancelled their visas, they just left; many who applied and received a visa have subsequently not come. As everyone who lives in Dubai knows, there are less people on the roads, less people in the malls and less jobs

There is no doubt that the Ministry has issued more visas than it has cancelled. The reason for this is that renewals count as new visas. Therefore, there is a reduction in the population of the UAE but re-issued visas, of which approximately 1.25 million must be renewed annually, are taken into the figure. If you make an assumption that the three year visas are equally distributed in terms of renewals, then approximately 300,000 people have left the UAE in the first six months. That is a better statistic.

What is going on at EK?

28 April 2009

The old adage that the beatings will continue until morale improves seems to have never been truer than at Emirates. There are rumours of 11 pilots fired in the last month, including the two pilots operating EK412 which had the tail-strike at Melboure.

More recent casualties involve two pilots who flew a take off at Accra that started at an intersection (taxiway and runway); the plane was light, but the take off encroached on secure space (a palace it is rumoured) and there were complaints from the local ATC. At no point were passenger lives in any way endangered.

The irony is that the captain of the Accra flight had just been given an outstanding service award by the airline. EK's newsletter reports that "Captain X (left) and First Officer Y have been awarded Silver Najms in recognition of the professionalism and leadership they displayed when operating EK205 from Dubai to Hamburg, a flight which subsequently diverted to Frankfurt due to severe weather. Flight Operations recognised the men for their willingness to extend their duty period and continue the flight back to Hamburg, thereby smoothing the journey for the passengers and preventing additional expense to the company."

You are it seems only as good as your last flight.

Meanwhile and this is no surprise there will be no pay increase at Emirates this year. EK announced that there will be no change to the current flight crew remuneration package that is usually announced around this time of the year. The 3% step increase to base pay, which we have historically provided pilots, will also not be paid this year.

And in Melbourne the ATSB will hold a media conference to release the Preliminary Factual Report on the investigation into the circumstances surrounding the A340-500 Tail Strike at Melbourne Airport on 20 March 2009, will be held on: Thursday 30 April 2009.

This will be held at the ATSB offices, Level 2, 62 Northbourne Avenue, Canberra at 10:30 am.

Mr Julian Walsh, Director of Aviation Safety Investigation will discuss factual information known to the investigation team at this time and will outline the investigation process.
 

Australian newspaper raises issue of tired pilots

25 April 2009

The Melbourne Herald-Sun carries a rather alarmist report in advance of next Thursday's press briefing by the Australian Transport safety board on the Emirates accident a month ago in Melbourne.

The newspaper says the pilot had almost no sleep the previous day and was following the airline's orders to take off at reduced power to save money on fuel.

Emirates yesterday issued a statement saying safety was a top priority for the airline. "Safety is at the forefront of all operations within the Emirates group," a spokeswoman said.

Sources told the newspaper that the report which is due on Thursday was expected to show the near-catastrophic accident happened after the incorrect weight was typed into the plane's computers, causing it to set an inadequate take-off speed.

Air safety investigators are also examining Emirates' staff records, including the work rosters of some of its pilots, to see if there are systemic safety problems within the airline that could have contributed to the near disaster.

The Sunday Herald Sun learned that the pilot of the plane was also almost at the threshold of the number of hours he was legally able to fly. Investigators are examining whether pilot fatigue was a factor after being told the pilot had barely slept the day before the flight.

Several sources also confirmed that Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigators were also looking at whether any other "human factors" needed to be addressed.

The inspection of Emirates' records is part of the bureau's investigation - expected to take up to a year - into the reasons behind the error.

The inquiry will also investigate issues such as cockpit distractions and crew resource management.

The newspaper says that a source at Emirates said the airline did not have a culture that encouraged people to voice their safety concerns. The source said some Emirates pilots were badly fatigued, but people were afraid to speak out. That seems unlikely to me. The EK pilots that I have met have always been highly articulate and I don't think any of them would ever knowingly have jeopardised the safety of their airliner.

The newspaper also stated that:

The tail crashed into the runway with such force that passengers heard a loud scraping noise and some saw a heavy shower of sparks.

The impact ripped a hole in the fuselage, causing what appeared to be smoke and dust to swirl into the cabin.

The pilot made three announcements during the next 35 minutes as he circled Port Phillip Bay to dump fuel before returning to land. But none of the announcements told passengers how serious the situation was and the passengers were not in the "brace position" when the plane landed.

The two pilots involved in the accident were forced to resign 48 hours after they were flown back to Dubai. Safety Bureau and Civil Aviation Safety Authority officials are thought to be concerned about the action taken against the pilots, but have no jurisdiction to intervene. 

Emirates is sending some of its senior managers to Australia in advance of the Thursday report. Andrew Parker, an Australian now based in Dubai as Emirates' senior vice-president of public, government and environmental affairs, will arrive in Australia this week with Capt Alan Stealey, Emirates' divisional senior vice-president of flight operations.

The company denied it had a punitive culture that discouraged open discussion about safety concerns.

"Emirates has a positive and open safety reporting culture that helps management understand safety issues before they become significant concerns," a spokeswoman said.

The company would not answer direct questions about reduced-thrust take-offs, the fate of the pilots and the future of the damaged aircraft.

Bomb scare crew committed to trial

25 April 2009 - Melbourne Herald-Sun

"An Australian flight attendant accused of a bomb hoax on a London-bound plane from Dubai has been committed for trial in an English court.

Matthew Carney, 23, from Melbourne, faces two charges relating to the alleged bomb threat aboard the Emirates flight he was working on during March 22.

Mr Carney, who is in custody, appeared via video link at Mid Sussex Magistrates Court on Thursday.

Wearing white trousers and a grey sweatshirt, he spoke calmly as he gave his name and date of birth. He has not yet entered a plea.

Chairman of a panel of three magistrates presiding over the committal hearing Kenneth Berry told Mr Carney: "You are committed to stand on trial, that will be at Lewes Crown Court."

The panel was not prepared to grant bail because he was deemed a flight risk, although Mr Carney, who lives in Dubai, made no application for bail after an earlier request was denied.

Mr Carney's next appearance will be for a plea and case management hearing at Lewes Crown Court, in southeast England, on May 22.

He is charged with communicating information known or believed to be false with the intention of inducing a false belief that an object liable to explode or ignite was present in the cargo of a plane.

He faces a second charge of endangering the safety of an aircraft."

A new world

23 April 2009 - The Economist (writing about Dubai)

"The first glamorous residents have already made a home for themselves at “The World”, an archipelago of 300 artificial islands (pictured above) created off the coast of Dubai by Nakheel, one of the emirate’s big three developers. Pilot fish and parrot fish have colonised the man-made reef surrounding the islands. The reef, built from 34m tonnes of rock, forms a protective ring around the islands—a breakwater that stops the Gulf’s currents from slowly washing The World away.

To its many critics, Dubai’s economy is as artificial as Nakheel’s islands. The emirate borrowed capital and labour to make speculative bets on real estate, of which The World is only one outlandish example. Now policymakers are scrambling to build an economic breakwater that might protect the emirate’s prosperity from adverse tides: plunging property prices, ebbing trade and tourism, and the unaccustomed difficulty of refinancing its ambitions.

The debt of Dubai’s government and government-controlled companies is about $80 billion. Almost $11 billion comes due this year (including interest) and $12.4 billion next. Nakheel alone must refinance a $3.52 billion bond in December and another worth 3.6 billion dirhams ($980m) five months later, according to EFG-Hermes, an Egyptian investment bank.

The rocks for Dubai’s breakwater have been provided by its neighbour Abu Dhabi. The wealthiest of the seven members of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Abu Dhabi sits on 94% of the federation’s oil reserves. Through the central bank, it bought $10 billion of Dubai’s bonds, half of a proposed $20 billion issue. This bail-out, announced in February, has restored calm, as shown by the falling cost of insurance against default (see chart). The economy has shifted “from the crisis mood to the solution mood,” wrote Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Muhammad bin Rashid al-Maktoum, in an online discussion with reporters on April 18th, his first in eight years.

The solution includes reshaping the archipelago of quasi-government companies known loosely as “Dubai Inc”. These enterprises mostly fall into one of three holding companies: Dubai World, Investment Corporation of Dubai, and Dubai Holding, which belongs to Sheikh Muhammad himself. Each holding company boasts its own master-developer: Nakheel, Emaar and Dubai Properties.

The ruler was happy to devolve power to these companies, which were run like personal fiefs. The competition between them kept them on their toes, unlike sluggish ministries of urban development elsewhere. But the developers also fell prey to one-upmanship. Emaar is building the world’s tallest building, so Nakheel announced a 1km tower that would surpass it. The government stood behind these companies, giving them the confidence to overreach. But the authorities did not stand over them, ensuring their plans cohered with each other and with reality.

During the boom, supply seemed to create its own demand. Developers sold properties before ground was even broken, asking for first instalments of 10% or even lower. This allowed speculators to buy ten apartments for the price of one, with the aim of selling them at a profit before the second instalment fell due.

The market peaked in September 2008, about 30 months after Dubai allowed foreigners from outside the Gulf to buy freehold properties in designated areas. Prices fell by about 25% in the last quarter of 2008, according to several of the private indices compiled in the absence of sound official data. They may have fallen by the same amount in the first quarter of 2009.

The market is sending a signal that even Dubai’s bullish developers cannot mistake. In March, Middle East Economic Digest (MEED), a business journal, calculated that UAE developers had postponed $335 billion-worth of construction projects. One two-year project was proceeding so slowly that it would take 20 years to complete. Three months after announcing its 1km tower, Nakheel postponed it.

The restructuring of Dubai Inc has begun. Nakheel shed 15% of its staff in December and has continued to pare its numbers since. Sheikh Muhammad’s own Dubai Holding has also cut staff. “Last year, people would talk about how many houses they owned,” says one Dubai veteran. “Now, they talk about how many friends have lost their jobs.” Other economies benefit from automatic fiscal stabilisers as the unemployed stop paying taxes and start spending welfare benefits. The UAE suffers from an automatic destabiliser: 30 days after a foreigner loses his job, he loses his right to stay. Once they leave, Dubai’s ex-expats will spend nothing in the economy they leave behind.

Companies often keep people on their books (unpaid) while they look for alternative employment. But EFG-Hermes forecasts that Dubai’s population will fall by 17% this year. Its workforce will shrink to fit a contracting economy, just as it grew to fit an expanding one. One architect in Dubai has proposed turning vacant labour camps, where migrant builders once lived eight to a room, into affordable housing for people who can no longer rent the apartments the labourers were hired to build.

Dubai lives in a good neighbourhood, however. Abu Dhabi, the next-door emirate, has 92 billion barrels of oil reserves and a sovereign-wealth fund with probably over $300 billion of assets. The consolidated balance-sheet of the UAE is not overly stretched. It is just that one emirate has most of the assets; its neighbour has most of the liabilities.



Good-neighbour policy
As Dubai’s crisis deepened, everyone waited for its oil-rich neighbour to bail it out. The wait lasted an agonising few months, from the onset of the crisis in September until the central bank’s decision to buy Dubai’s bonds was revealed in February. What accounted for the delay? Many commentators argue that Dubai was reluctant to ask for help, and that Abu Dhabi asked for something more than 4% interest in return. Abu Dhabi was perhaps not unhappy to see Dubai’s wings clipped and the federation tightened.

But Georges Makhoul of Morgan Stanley thinks it is wrong to describe the federation’s deliberations as if they were a “family soap opera”. He adds: “It’s not as if people in Abu Dhabi are scheming about how to make Dubai suffer, and the people in Dubai are scheming about how to wring money out of Abu Dhabi.” The offer of help was extended in November, he says.

In his online interview, Sheikh Muhammad denounced “vicious attempts” by the media to “fabricate differences between Abu Dhabi and Dubai.” He complained about a “media bombardment” of the UAE since the crisis broke. “I know that some people from outside the region have wished that [the] Dubai model will go down the river,” he says.

The critics of Dubai have indeed been as prone to overstatement as the Dubai developers they disdain. The Dubai model has deep roots. The emirate has, after all, been borrowing to invest in infrastructure since the 1950s, when it sold a bond to Kuwait to finance the dredging of its creek. The results of this investment are sometimes hubristic, but often impressive. The Jebel Ali Port, for example, is one of the biggest container docks in the world.

Dubai has also put similar efforts into its “soft infrastructure”. For example, the Dubai International Financial Centre has imported English law and international arbitration from London—even if it lacks the institutional history to back it up.

The skills Dubai needs to prosper are most abundant in the West. To attract these skills, it has turned itself into a country Westerners can enjoy, notes one Saudi onlooker. Saudi Arabia is a bigger economy offering more interesting work. But it struggles to attract the lawyers, financiers and other professionals it needs.

Not everyone is fresh off the plane, or booking their flights home. Dubai’s older family businesses, which trace their origins to Iran, India and Zanzibar, will not abandon the emirate during its downturn, any more than they were carried away by the boom. Dubai attracts people from 202 nationalities, according to the Ministry of Labour. Some of these people are footloose and flighty. But for others, the emirate is the only place in the region they would want to live. Dubai was a microcosm of the world even before Nakheel decided to build its island replica."
 

Batman saves Bangkok

23 April 2009

Even in a crisis Bangkok always has its fun side.

During one of the "red shirt" riot scenes in Bangkok on 13th April 2009, when a gas truck was hi-jacked and reportedly threatened to release the flammable contents near Din Daeng Area, an unknown individual emerges as Batman.

The super hero was able to divert the attention of the protesters, opening an opportunity for the rescue team to retrieve the gas truck.

Watch the new video on Toutube from about 1min 10 seconds into the video.

UAQ to close bars and clubs

23 April 2009

The Khaleej Times is reporting that one of the seven UAE emirates, Umm Al Quwain, has decided to close down all bars and nightclubs in the emirate from May 1. Umm Al Quwaim is on the UAE's western coast north of Dubai and Sharjah.

It will be interesting to see the impact of this new control on business and investment. This brings UAQ closer in line with Sharjah. I just wonder is there a time that new controls extend to some of the UAE's more liberal emirates?

More than 25 nightclubs, which serve liquor and entertain guests with live music and dance performances, will be shut down across the emirate.

Colonel Sultan Al Shweikh, Director-General of the emirate’s police, and a number of police officers, met with managers of hotels and nightclubs to inform the latter about the order
on Tuesday.

Colonel Sultan Al Shweikh asked the hotel managers to sign a copy of the order and commit themselves that they would not flout the directive, issued on the instructions of the leadership.

Those who flout the order would face stringent legal action, he said.

Dance performances, loud music and DJs have been banned. But companies and people in groups can hold lunch and dinner parties with prior permission, provided that no music is played. Such gatherings must, however, end by midnight.

Colonel Sultan Al Shweikh reminded the managers about the regulations laid down by the Economic Department for hotels about receiving and accommodating guests. Rooms, he clarified, are only reserved for families.

If a man is accompanied by a woman, they should produce a document to prove their legal relationship.

Is the UAE helping Thailand?

23 April 2009

The Bangkok Post suggests today that The Foreign Ministry of the United of Arab Emirates (UAE) is ready to cooperate with the Thai government in extraditing outlawed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. This is according to Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya's assistant Panit Wikitset said on Thursday.

Trouble is Kasit's agenda was all too clear at his Asia Society briefing in New York - see below.

However the Thai givernment says that Thaksin hasd already left the UAE.

Mr Panit and Deputy Commerce Minister Alongkorn Ponlaboot were assigned by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva as special envoys to forward the arrest warrants for Thaksin to the UAE Foreign Ministry and police.

The envoys visited Abu Dhabi from Sunday to Tuesday and were tasked with negotiating with the UAE authorities to extradite the ousted premier.

Mr Panit said UAE officials told him that Thaksin had entered their country as a businessman on March 27. That would be his most recent entry to Thailand. One of a succession of visits this year.

The Thais insist that the UAE government later notified Thaksin that it would not be appropriate for him to stay in the country any longer because he used the country as a base for his political activities. I wonder if that is really true?

Thaksin apparently left the UAE for an undisclosed destination on Monday. It cannot be undisclosed. His private jet would have had to file a flight plan. On a scheduled flight his destination is entered into the immigration records.

Mr Panit said the UAE government had already received the arrest warrants for Thaksin from the International Criminal Police Organisation, or Interpol. The UAE insisted it would not let Thaksin re-enter the country if he continued to organise political activities there, he said. Again I am not sure I believe this.

Mr Panit said he had briefed Foreign Minister Kasit on the negotiations.

Thaksin was found guilty by the Criminal Court of conflict of interest in the purchase of state land in the Ratchadaphisek area by his ex-wife Potjaman Damapong and sentenced to two years in prison. A warrant has also been issued for his arrest on charges of instigating the riots in Bangkok last week.

The trouble with this Thai government is that so many of its statements are what they think their bosses want to hear rather than what is necessarily true. There is very little credibility.

How did I get left out?

23 April 2009

The Nation newspaper is so one sided at the moment that it is hard to read it without bursting into giggling fits.

There is the occasional happy exception - well written and balanced - such as the Chang Noi column.

The best entertainment at the moment is the Nation's weblog written by Thanong Khanthong

Yesterday it identified the following as being red short sympathisers:

"Some local media on the Red wing include Prachathai and Same Sky. In the international front, Bangkok Pundit and New Mandela, among others, work as a mouthpiece. Editorial writers of international media such as International Herald Tribune (Philippe Bowring), Economist, Wall Street Journal have been pro-Red. Thai academics such as Giles Ungphakorn, Thitinan Pongsuthitak of Chulalongkorn University, Thongchai Winijchakul of University of Wisconsin and those at the Midnight University in Chiang Mai have also turned Reddish for different motivations. The role of Parinya Thewanaruemitkul of Thammasat University's Faculty of Law is also dubious. He went on TV to call for Abhisit to dissolve Parliament while the Red Shirts were burning Bangkok."

The full column is here.

Thanong's yellow blooded prose is typical - he talks of the yellow shirt rallies that "lasted more than 100 days, starting with the occupation of the Government House and culminating with the blockage to the Don Muang and Suvarnabhumi International Airports." Meanwhile the red shirts  "threw their support behind the Songkran Inferno."

I am feeling sadly excluded.

Most of the foreign media and blog writers that Thanong complains about were and remain strongly critical of Thaksin both as prime minister and for his current role. Good criticism is even handed and identifies fault where fault exists. The Nation has not quite got this message.
 

Utterly irresponsible

22 April 2009

If ever evidence was needed why the Thai Foreign Minister needs to be fired from office immediately this is it.

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya was speaking at the Asia Society in New York. He accused former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra of being involved in the failed attack on People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leader Sondhi Limthongkul, saying he believed he and four other ministers could also be targeted. Complete speculation with no supporting evidence.

Remember that neither Sondhi or his son have implicated Thaksin or the red shirts in the assassination attempt. Indeed they have identified another group, assumed to ne linked to Newin.

Mr Kasit said Mr Sondhi was involved in the ousting of the Thaksin government in 2006 and in the anti-Thaksin protest last year.

This could be the reason for the attempt on the PAD leader's life on April 17, Mr Kasit said.

After Thaksin failed with his populist movement, he may attempt to assassinate his opponents, the minister claimed.

Mr Kasit believed he and other four other cabinet members could also be Thaksin's targets. He had felt like he was being detained over the past two weeks because he was surrounded by armed navy officers.

"If we want to fight till death, only ashes would remain," said the minister.

On the military and police crackdown on the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protesters last week, he said a civil war may erupt if a single protester died by the hands of the authorities during the riot. The trouble is it is likely that there were a number of deaths.

He said the government must not tolerate any kind of protest that leads to violence.

It would also be pointless to pretend that everything was still normal, he said. Which also contradicts other government statements of a return to normalcy.

Kasit, remember, was a regular attendee and speaker at the yellow shirt rallies in December. If Abhisit really wants any reconciliation then he needs to replace Kasit, soon.

Bizarre Thai newspaper cover

22 April 2009

From Thai Rath - after the attack on Sondhi. Gives you a good idea as to what sells newspapers in Thailand.

And now the propaganda

21 April 2009

Here we go again. The Thai government says it will launch a publicity campaign at home and abroad to counter the propaganda of the red shirts according to PM's Office Minister Satit Wongnongtaey.

"The media war will be designed to counter the smear campaign of the red shirts and explain the true situation to the international community," he said.

He said police and public prosecutors were obligated to enforce the arrest warrant for red-shirt co-leader Jakrapob Penkair who remains at large and claims to have fled abroad.

He said relevant agencies, including the Office of the Government Spokesman and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will rebut Jakrapob's interviews given to foreign media outlets.

He added that the government was closely monitoring whether the red shirts would carry out the threat of organising rallies in 10 provinces before marching to Bangkok.

The trouble is that the government has closed down red shirt TV and radio stations; the PAD yellow shirt ASTV continues to broadcast. The red shirts argue with some justification that the government is not being even handed. They argue that the government is not being honest about last week's crackdown.

If the Democrats are to lead Thailand out of this crisis they need to be seen to be open to open dialogue and balanced engagement.
 

The rage before the rampage

21 April 2009

I am always a little surprised that Chang Noi continues to be publised by the strongly pro PAD (anti Thaksin and UDD) Nation newspaper; but his commentaries are always worthwhile. The penultimate paragraph says everything that is needed. Will anyone listen.

Published on April 20, 2009 CHANG NOI in The Nation

"IN THE RED RALLY from April 8 at Government House to the blockade of Victory Monument, we heard a passion and venting of rage that rarely rises above the surface. By breaking taboos, by naming names, Thaksin smashed other mental shackles (how easy it was). Of course, some protesters parroted the talk of "real democracy" from Thaksin and other leaders. But in interviews, vox pops and video clips, people repeatedly talked about unfairness, injustice, privilege, double standards and a sense of utter frustration. This was a moment of terrible clarity. Such thoughts acquire new meaning when they are spoken out aloud and shared.

The rampage that followed was both appalling and pathetic. From the moment it became clear that a scrappy, nasty and obviously ill-fated attempt to provoke urban disorder was underway, the red crowd began to melt away. The planned rallies at provincial halls drew a fraction of the numbers there a few days earlier. The crowd at Government House thinned to a few thousand by the time of the surrender.

PROLETARIAN STRUGGLE

But who comprised this crowd at its height? We have to guess from the faces and other facts. They seemed mostly in the age range of 25-45; mainly male (perhaps 3-to-1); more Thai than Chinese in features; jeans and sneakers as standard dress.

On April 8, the crowd swelled to 100,000, then dropped to 25,000 overnight, before rebuilding on the following day, suggesting most had a home nearby. Many had vehicles - taxis, motorcycles, songtaew trucks.

The best guess is that the core members were migrants who had moved to the capital to work in easy-entry occupations like hired motorcycle or taxi driver, vendor, construction worker and other casual labour.

The rage is not difficult to understand. The motorcycle driver lives his working life in the exhaust fumes of air-conditioned saloons. He is constantly harassed by the corrupt police, while watching the Benz owners break the law with impunity. He is only in Bangkok because farming has declined over a generation of persistent government neglect while public funds were poured into the highways that wreathe Bangkok.

One surprise in the red rhetoric was the appearance of amathiyathipatai. Forty years ago, the word was invented to translate "bureaucratic polity", a term used by an American scholar to label Thailand's military dictatorship. It had been confined to the world of academia, and almost forgotten.

But someone unearthed it to mock the military-backed Democrat government as a throwback to the distant past. Thaksin picked it up. Red orators repeated it. By April 8 it was emblazoned on the backdrop of the Government House stage, pared down to "amat", preceded by a single ringing call, "Overthrow!"

Of course, almost none of the audience could parse the word's Sanskrit-Pali roots, or know its obscure academic history. But clearly they responded to its feel. Amat joins a list of terms (patronage system, privilege, double standard) that grope to convey the gut feeling of being victim of multiple injustices.

Thaksin's populism was not only about what he gave to people (cheap healthcare, micro loans) but also how he gave it. His personal style was hot, active, open. He made people feel they had some power. He made them sense they had a leader they could own. He gave them an inkling that their vote could matter, and a hope that it could be a tool to gain a lot more.

REDRESSING WRONGS

The trashing of democracy over the past two-and-a-half years has blasted those hopes. The coup not only removed Thaksin, but also announced a U-turn in leadership style. In person, General Surayuth can be warm and amiable. As prime minister, he chose to play the ultimate bureaucrat - body closely controlled, face devoid of expression, eyes drained of emotion, coolant in the veins.

Abhisit, of course, is almost frenetic in comparison. But his carefully controlled speech, aloof manner and failure to look through the camera into the eyes of his audience still give him a bureaucratic aura. He reminds us that the Democrats are famous for telling people not to protest but wait in their villages until the benevolent government has time left over from the arduous task of saving the country to attend to them.

Many are now clamouring for Abhisit to reach beyond his faithful fans. Perhaps it's better to look at the situation from the bottom up.

Over the last three years, Thailand has developed two socio-political movements, red and yellow. They represent different parts of the population, and have contrasting ideas about change. Up to now they have been fighting on the streets with buses, golf clubs and cooking gas tankers, holding the national economy hostage. Parliamentary democracy was developed so that such conflict between people and ideas may be resolved under peaceful conditions.

Here, it has not been allowed to perform this function - for many reasons. "Money politics" gets in the way. Some people want to believe there is no conflict. Some with a Cold War mentality and training in manipulation cannot resist playing puppet masters in the background (Panlop is a great example). Many are just scared they will lose.

This is a delicate and desperate moment. If the red and yellow movements can be translated into parliamentary politics, they could begin to drive out money politics. If they cannot, the prospects are dire. Building a Great Wall around Bangkok won't work. The Trojan Horse is already inside.

Embrace the proposal to return to the 1997 constitution with some fixes for its few well-known failings. Amnesty the 220 banned politicians. Don't try to stifle the red voice; listening is better. Punish the yellow on par with the red or others will do it for you. Stop worrying about the Nicaraguan special ambassador. Bring back a properly elected parliament and government as soon as possible. Accept the result and let the system work. Never again give the puppet players the support they don't deserve.

Don't use the rampage as an excuse for ignoring the rage.
 

Is there another delay at JXB?

21 April 2009

Dubai's airport chief said yesterday that a new airport envisioned as the world's biggest passenger and freight hub could see its first flight pushed back further than planned.

In addition, Dubai Airports CEO Paul Griffiths said the number of runways at the colossal Al Maktoum International Airport has been scaled back to five from the six slated originally.

The new $33 billion facility and surrounding multi-use development, being built in the desert outskirts of Dubai, now isn't expected to see action until at least June 2010, a year later than a previously planned inauguration, Griffiths said in an interview. But that date is now under review.

"The question we're now asking is: 'When is the right time to open the new airport?'" Griffiths said in an interview with Associated Press. "Rather than rush the opening ... we would rather take a longer time, get it absolutely right."

He says officials will review Al Maktoum's opening date in the coming weeks.

The adjustments highlight the flexible approach Dubai aviation officials are taking to cope with the economic downturn, which is killing demand for air travel and crimping global air freight flows.

But they also raise new questions about the heavily indebted Arab boomtown's ambitious airport growth plans. Griffiths' comments come days after a construction contract was withdrawn for expansion work at the existing Dubai International Airport.

Tens of billions of dollars' worth of other Dubai building projects, mostly high-rise condominiums and luxury hotels, have been shelved or canceled altogether as a result of the economic slump.

Al Maktoum International, named after the family that has ruled Dubai for generations, is expected to be the centerpiece of a 140-square kilometer (54-square mile) development at Jebel Ali combining logistics, housing, shopping and leisure facilities.

The airport itself is designed to handle as many as 160 million passengers and 12 million to 14 million tons of freight each year, potentially making it the world's biggest in terms of passenger and cargo volume.

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport holds the title of world's busiest passenger airport. Memphis International Airport, used as a hub for shipping giant FedEx Corp., ranks as the world's biggest freight airport.

Griffiths said efficient use of the airport should mean the decision to drop one runway from the design will not affect capacity. It will certainly reduce the price tag, however: the only runway built so far cost 1 billion dirhams ($272.5 million) to complete.

The airport is being constructed about 25 miles (40 kilometers) from downtown Dubai International, which is hemmed in by housing, offices and car dealerships. Dubai's state-run airline Emirates is rapidly expanding its fleet, which will likely put further pressure on the existing airport's space.

Griffiths said the lack of space at Dubai International, which would remain in use once Al Maktoum International opens, means that the new airport is still necessary.

Dubai airport last year handled 37.4 million passengers — well below maximum capacity — but resources could soon become strained at busy times when both passengers and airlines want to fly most, Griffiths said.

Passenger numbers rose 2 percent to 9.5 million in the first quarter of this year.

Dubai International opened a new terminal last October that doubled its capacity to 60 million passengers a year.

Another concourse planned to open in 2011 will increase capacity there to 75 million passengers. Griffiths insisted work on that project remains on schedule despite the withdrawal of a key contract late last week.

Dubai aviation officials and South African construction firm Murray & Roberts Holdings Ltd., one of three companies involved in the deal, said they mutually agreed to end the contract because of an inability to agree on terms.

Where next for Thailand?

21 April 2009

The foreign media is still focused on what happens next in Thailand and is providing more worthwhile analysis and more comprehensive interviews that the Thai media.

In a SPIEGEL interview, Sukhumbhand Paribatra, the governor of Bangkok and a cousin of the king, condemns former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and criticizes the Thai Army. He says he is deeply concerned about the state of Thailand and the future of the monarchy. It is an unusually frank interview for a Thai official.

Follow the link to read the full interview.

This is perhaps the clearest statement that it is not just foreigners who are thinking about the Thai royal succession.

Meanwhile the FT interviews ex Prime Minister  Thaksin who says the previously unsaid; after his calls for a people's revolution, after his attacks against the Privy Council, in this interview he says that the King knew in advance about the 2006 coup because he was abused (misinformed) by the Privy Council.

The Financial Times adds that Thai officials have denied Mr Thaksin's claim that King Bhumibol knew about the coup before it took place. "This is a totally groundless allegation. It is a lie," a spokesman for the Thai embassy in London told the FT.

Thaksin was also interviewed by Spiegel and it sounds as though Mr. T is still is Dubai; it looks like Nicaragua is not getting a lot of attention. Thaksin always reads so much better than he sounds on TV! But the following rat quote may come back to haunt him. "My government was democratically elected and won by a landslide. Now I am like a rat who stays in the house. They want to catch me so badly that they would dare to burn down the whole house to do so." He says he has other passports as well as his Nicaraguan diplomatic passport.

Swiss/UN rollover

21 April 2009

Should we blame the Swiss or the UN. Pathetic really. What did they expect when they let Ahmadinejad speak at the UN conference on racism.

the conference was billed as a demonstration of international solidarity behind sentiments everyone could agree on, such as tolerance, understanding and respect. But from the moment Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rose to the lectern at yesterday's UN conference against racism, it rapidly disintegrated into a shouting match and the world edged perceptibly further from peace.

The Geneva UN gathering coincides with Israel's Holocaust Remembrance Day and Hitler's birthday. Yesterday the conference was derailed by a publicity-seeking, not especially powerful politician, desperately campaigning for re-election as president.

The conference is supposed to help the millions whose lives are utterly blighted by racial discrimination, violence and hatred. Instead the conference was hijacked by one man with a narrow agenda and a broken record.

When he did speak, he was even more vitriolic than they had feared.  a rambling polemic, Ahmadinejad questioned the reality of the Holocaust, accused Israel of genocide and spoke of a wide-ranging Zionist conspiracy. He said Zionists had thoroughly infiltrated western countries. They had "penetrated into the political and economic structure including their legislation, mass media, companies, financial systems, and their security and intelligence agencies ... to the extent that nothing can be done against their will", he told delegates from around the world.

The US, Canada, Israel, Italy, Netherlands and others had already boycotted the conference. So much for a united UN.  The speech triggered pandemonium and a coordinated walkout by Britain and other EU states.

Boycotting the conference was a mistake; walking out on a an espousing hatred and denying the holocaust was a mistake. Whatever happened to the power of evidence and to strength or argument.

The speech drew a stinging denunciation from the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon. "I deplore the use of this august platform to accuse, divide and even incite," Ban said. "This is the opposite of what this conference seeks to achieve." What else was he expecting?

The UN high commissioner for human rights, Navi Pillay, was even blunter, describing Iran's leader as "somebody who traditionally makes obnoxious statements" and who had done so once again.

The speech almost certainly set back any rapprochement between the US and Iran, at least until the Iranian presidential elections in June, if not beyond.

Of course there were also many who stayed and cheered. Ahmadinejad knows his audience.

But this conference was supposed to be about tolerance and mutual respect.

Red shirt rising - eye witness

20 April 2009

This is riveting stuff: no Thai newspaper has produced anything this comprehensive, detailed, aware and truly scary. The report covers the last two weeks in Bangkok and Pattaya. There are a large number of pictures.

http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmandala/2009/04/20/the-crushing-of-the-red-shirts/

Two simple extracts:

"On Monday April 13, my wife woke me up at 4 am in the morning, at the same time a friend rang me. It had begun, they said, in Din Daeng. I arrived at Samliem Din Daeng, the corner of DinDaeng Rd. and Ratchaprarop Rd., shortly before 5 am. It was dark, and in the close distance single shots were being fired, and there were brief bursts of automatic gunfire. There were ambulances, angry Red Shirt protesters, and a few Thai photo journalists. As I walked carefully towards the fighting, Red Shirts were running towards me, away from the sound of bursts of automatic rifles. They shouted that the Army was coming. I ran with them, my bullet proof vest, the heat and plain fear slowed me down. But it calmed down again. Agitated Red Shirts told me of people having been killed, and dragged by soldiers into lorries. I have no way of verifying this."

"I spoke with several Red Shirt guards who told me harrowing tales of the battles, of how they have seen friends dragged away and beaten to death, and how they could not reach the corpses before they were snatched away. I photographed some of them with bullet shells they collected, both AK-47 and M-16 ammo."

Thailand is in a mess. yet strangely so many people dont seem to care. They are too busy shopping.

In Bangkok there is huge dislike of the red shirts; fuelled by the media coverage, too much violence and a general contempt of the rural Thais.

The Red Shirt movement may have been beaten; its leaders are in jail or in hiding. But their supporters are still embittered. It is hard to work out who they hate most; the authorities or the Thai media for their oppression.

The red Shirts are convinced that a number of their members have been killed; the government's blanket denial is too hasty and too convenient. It may well be that the government has not been told the full truth by the Army. Only a full and independent inquiry will satisfy the red shirts; and to be honest is something that all fair minded people should be asking for.

The Red Shirts remain so angry about double standards. Despite emergency rule in December when the airports were occupied no action whatsoever was taken by the Army. The red shirts were hugely provoked. Their anger should not be a surprise. In Pattaya PAD guards and Navy personnel arrived disguised as “Blue Shirts” organised by who ? This must have been a top level military or even political decision.

Cities like Chiang Mai remain red and angry. There is talk of different tactics. More of a guerilla warfare. This has little to do with Thaksin now. This is about the future of Thailand and I am not sure there is any role for Thaksin in that.    

Anyone who says (yes Mr Abhisit) that Thailand is back to normal is sadly mistaken; unless normal is scared and fearful.

Transparency is good provided we don't mind being shocked

20 April 2009

In a modern democracy torture is a complicated business. After 9/11 the CIA was under relentless pressure to break terror suspects in time to head off a second attack. In March 2002, the CIA captured Abu Zubaydah, believed then to be a high-level Qaeda mastermind. Abu Zubaydah was interrogated in severe ways—"waterboarded" (simulated drowning), deprived of sleep for days, slammed into walls—methods discussed and approved at the highest levels of the White House. The catch is that Abu Zubaydah was not, in fact, a top Osama bin Laden lieutenant or even a senior member of Al Qaeda; he arranged logistics at the Afghan training camps. According to the FBI, which initially questioned him, most of the useful intelligence he shared came out before he was roughed up.

As a strong democracy there are few secrets in the USA. Which presumably accounts for rendition. Let someone else do the dirty work for us because if we do it we will have to tell.

The debate about releasing the memos covering the treatment of Abu Zubaydah was forced by a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit brought by the American Civil Liberties Union. The CIA cannot be happy despite a strongly worded statement that agency professionals "who acted reasonably and relied upon legal advice from the Department of Justice" will be held blameless.

But what if evidence emerges that CIA officials (or contractors, who actually conducted most of the interrogations) went beyond the boundaries that the Justice Department erected? What if there is another Abu Graib?

The CIA torturers do not need to work with medical support - they must have needed a lawyer at their side; you can slam someone into a wall (but not one that is rock-solid, and no more than 20 or 30 times) and repeatedly douse him with cold water (but not colder than 41 degrees!). I suspect there are more revelations to come as lawsuits and congressional or administration investigations go forward.

But the problem is that the CIA are tasked to get results. A crisis happens (in this case, September 11); the CIA is ordered to take the gloves off; agency officials protest that they will be blamed if anything goes wrong; they are reassured by the politicians and lawyers that they will be protected. But things go wrong (as they usually do in the murky world of covert operations), and the agency is hung out to dry. In a democracy, that's the way it really works. No one should be surprised if, after the next terrorist attack, the intelligence community is blamed for being risk-averse. Still, the CIA and the Justice Department have to obey the rules.

The New York Times said a 2005 Justice Department memorandum showed that Abu Zubaydah was waterboarded 83 times, although a former CIA officer had told news media he had been subjected to only 35 seconds underwater before talking.

The released memos show that CIA interrogators used the waterboarding technique on Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the admitted planner of the Sept. 11 attacks, 183 times in March 2003.

President Barack Obama has now banned the use of waterboarding, overturning a Bush administration policy that it did not constitute torture.

A Senate Intelligence Committee is now investigating the CIA interrogation program at real financial cost and likely morale cost within the CIA.

However much torture may shame us; may revolt us; their is a decent transparency in the USA that makes this information public. We are repulsed. There is an outcry against the USA for its use of torture. But the only reason there is an outcry is that the information is public in the first place. Other nations with far more abhorrent practices will carry out its information gathering without any accountability.

An introduction to Toronto

20 April 2009 - from Time Out and various other sources.

I first went to Toronto in 1987. It was February and -21C when we landed. I moved there in March 1998 and lived near High Park and also downtown. In 1988 shops were still closed on Sundays; the Blue Jays played in an old stadium at the Canadian National Exhibition grounds. Downtown was still offices rather than clubs and bars.

By 1994 we had the Skydome - some terrific downtown restaurants and clubs, even late night bookstores.

The East side of downtown where I lived had St. Lawrence Market at the weekends but not much else. That changed with the renovation of the Distillery District.

I left Toronto in 1994 to go to Hong Kong and my visits have been irregular since; the last one was a short visit in 2006. I am excited about going back and seeing the changes. By 1994 the city was becoming vibrant and busy with an increasing number of must see or must do activities and festivals. Now over 1 million people go to the annual Dragon Boat races for instance!

Toronto has nine months of winter and three months of poor skating -- at least that's what it feels like. There are four seasons. Just. Toronto has a long winter (about five months, mid-November to mid-April), short spring (mid-April-May) and fall (October-mid-November) and a four-month summer (June-September). But summer is lovely.

If it gets too hot and humid head to the islands on Lake Ontario. Take a picnic. Ride a bike.

One quarter of Canada’s population lives within a 160 km radius of Toronto; it is an immigrant city with 100 + languages spoken. In winter if you dont skate you hibernate and go underground. North America's largest continuous underground pedestrian system, PATH, connects about 1200 stores and restaurants, 50 office towers, five subway stations, Union Station, six major hotels and several entertainment centres under Toronto's financial core.

Still a young city by international standards, Toronto is growing up rapidly and attractively. It is Canada's biggest and most important metropolis, and its cosmopolitan makeup is serving as an impressive example to the rest of the world. French novelist turned cabinet minister Azouz Begag recently called Toronto 'the capital of diversity, the incarnation of modernity.'

These characteristics make Toronto a highly appealing tourist destination. The fact that it is far safer, cleaner and greener than most urban centres its size ensures the visitor a stress-free experience. Whether your prime pursuits are shopping, eating, soaking up some culture or sport, or sightseeing, you'll find plenty to sustain your interest here. Don't let those exaggerated reports of harsh winters in the Great White North deter you; Toronto actually sits at the same latitude as Florence and northern California, and the mild spring and autumn seasons are delightful. That white stuff rarely covers the ground before December, and exits by early April. And besides, the city is very well-equipped to cope with wintry storms, as shown by the extensive downtown shopping areas situated underground.

Toronto's burgeoning self-confidence is being dramatically illustrated with an unprecedented burst of major new cultural construction projects, featuring some of the world's most acclaimed architects.

The Toronto-raised Frank Gehry has applied his magical touch to a revamped Art Gallery of Ontario (317 Dundas Street West, +14169796648, www.ago.net ), while Daniel Libeskind's radical 'crystal' addition to the Royal Ontario Museum (100 Queen's Park, +14165868000, www.rom.on.ca ) was unveiled in 2006. Then there's a redesigned Gardiner Museum of Ceramic Art (111 Queen's Park, +14165868080 www.gardinermuseum.on.ca ), and a new Four Seasons Centre For The Performing Arts that houses the Canadian Opera Company and National Ballet of Canada. Controversial English architect Will Alsop has won kudos for his Sharp Centre for Design building, and is so impressed by the city's potential that he is setting up his own office here.

New hotels (both of the boutique and chain variety) are sprouting like mushrooms after a warm shower, and the centre of the city pulses with an energy that will invigorate those visitors staying there. Within a few blocks of a shopping mecca, the famed Eaton Centre (on Yonge Street, between Queen and Dundas West), you can (in winter) skate on the rink at City Hall, be dazzled by the neon-illuminated glow surrounding Dundas Square, catch some high-calibre theatre, or shake your booty in one of dozens of dance clubs. Running north and south, Yonge Street, reportedly the longest street in the world (running from Toronto's harbour area up to the Northern Ontario wilderness), is often used for orientation by both locals and visitors.

As well as boasting a vibrant downtown core, Toronto is also a city of neighbourhoods. Here, you can virtually tour the world without leaving the city limits, and food is a perfect aid to the exploration of the city's thriving ethnic communities.

East of Yonge you'll find spicy samosas amidst the sari stores in Little India (on Gerard Street), while Danforth Avenue, between Broadview and Pape, hosts a Greektown that features Greek restaurants ranging from the basic to sophisticated. Gerard and Broadview is the hub of a newer Chinatown area, though the city's original Chinatown, centred on Spadina Avenue and Dundas Street West, still bustles, energized by a growing Vietnamese component.

Just a little further west and a couple of blocks north, you'll find Little Italy, now home to a wide variety of chic restaurants and clubs. If you're craving kimchee, Travel directly north up to Bloor Street West and you'll come across fast-growing Koreatown.

It may lack an ethnic identity, but the east end's Distillery District (55 Mill Street, www.thedistillerydistrict.com ) is well worth a visit. North America's largest remaining Victorian-era industrial complex of cobblestone lanes and warehouses, it has proven popular with visitors since opening for business a few years ago. Galleries, restaurants, craft boutiques and outdoor music festivals enhance its unique charm.

If contemporary art is your thing, check out the storefront galleries along Queen Street west of Bathurst Street. New galleries seem to open weekly on this strip. One recommended recent arrival here is the Museum of Contemporary Canadian Art (MOCCA, 952 Queen Street West, +14163950067, www.mocca.toronto.on.ca ). The Olga Korper Gallery (17 Morrow Street, +14165388220, www.olgakorpergallery.com ) has showcased Canadian and international artists for over 30 years. And the avant-garde finds a lakeside home at the Power Plant Gallery (231 Queens Quay West, +14169734949, www.thepowerplant.org ).

Sports enthusiasts will find lots to love in Toronto. Hockey is still king, and tickets to a Maple Leafs game at the Air Canada Centre are hard (and expensive) to come by. Up the street, you'll find the sport's prime prize, the Stanley Cup, at the Hockey Hall of Fame (BCE Place, 30 Yonge Street, +14163607765, www.hhof.com ). For basketball, the NBA Raptors draw a raucous crowd to the ACC, while the Toronto Argonauts bring lovers of this Canadian-rules version of American football to The Rogers Centre, formerly called SkyDome (1 Blue Jays Way, +14163412770, www.rogerscentre.com ). Toronto Lynx give professional soccer a kick at suburban Centennial Park and the Toronto Rock, the city's most successful pro sports team in recent years, hammer away at the centuries-old native sport of lacrosse, also at the ACC.

As for food the most Toronto ritual of all is a back bacon sandwich at St Lawrence Market on Saturdays. Otherwise you can eat just about anything from anywhere at any price.

One of the better visitor/resident information sites is www.toronto.com. And a few favourite places.

Kensington Market - famous for food, galleries, furniture, clothing - Kensington offers you everything you could ask for: cool vintage shops, independent designers, cool business wear as well as inexpensive basics. The market is on Augusta, west of Spadina and south of College.

St Lawrence Market - best on Saturdays - food, wines, more food.

The Beaches - yes there is a beach (Lake Ontario), a boardwalk, parks, jazz festival and the shops of Queen Street East.

Any golf course. There are some great golf courses in the short summer season in and around Toronto.

Blocked in the UAE

20 April 2009

Just to bug me Toronto's leading free weekly newspaper, event guide, music guide, restaurandt reviews and llistings magazine is banned in teh UAE.

I was trying to plan our weekend away ! Growl!

Looking to Burma as an example; 1984 revisited

20 April 2009

It sounds like comments that you would expect from the Burmese junta but instead it is the government of Abhisit Vejjajiva that has announced that it is spying on an unnamed group “they suspect of feeding lies to international media outlets on the recent red shirt riots” (Bangkok Post, 20 April 2009: “Spies keep watch on group spreading lies”).

The previous line was that the international media was in the pay of Thaksin Shinawatra or somehow duped by him. Now an organised group of traitors is being sought.

Government spokesman Panithan Wattanayagorn said “members of the group had left the country in recent days to disseminate a ‘different version of events and accounts’ to the international media. Details of the group, which is believed to consist of about 10 people, could only be made public by the army and police chiefs, Mr Panithan said. The government would counter them by releasing its own information to the international media, explaining what is really happening.”

The first casualty of war was always said to be The Truth. Actually the first casualty of this war is Thai journalism. The unquestioning reporting of government missives is alarming. No questions are asked. No analysis undertaken.

The Thai government claims there were no fatalities during the army crackdown against the Red Shirt protesters last week. However, Australian blogger John Le Fevre of Photo Journ is one of many bloggers who is concerned that the truth has been conveniently cleared away. That should be hard in an age of TV and photo journalism; BUT the initial action against the red shirts was at 5am when there were few if any journalists there as witnesses.

Red Shirts are convinced that a number of their members have been killed; the Thai government's decision to censor dozens of websites associated with the Red Shirts movement adds fuel to this argument; these are the same sites which have been providing video and pictures alleging government wrongdoing. Who is hiding what? Who is scared of the truth?

In Bangkok there is little criticism of the crackdown. The country is so divided. The truth tends to get out. If protesters had been shot and killed, it would seem to be in the government's interest to come clean about what happened. Thailand surely does not want to be mistaken for Myanmar. But that is where we are drifting.
 

Behind the Sondhi attack

20 April 2009

Jittanart Limthongkul, Sondhi's only son, said tonight that a "Gestapo state" is being formed as the base for a new political force that's "as bad as the red shirts."

"A new form of war is emerging -- it's being launched by the collusion of certain police and military officers. They are plotting a new coup. It is said that a minister, who is said to be involved in the attempted assassination of a privy councillor, is actively behind this new exercise," Jittanart said in a "phone-in" from Bangkok to a concert in Phuket organized by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

He said this group of plotters was employing "assassins" to hunt down those they consider their enemies.

He added that they are creating conditions for the dissolution of the House -- so that the police and military officers involved would dominate the political scene.

"The red-shirts can suddenly turn blude shirts. This plot has many levels. They wanted to make Sondhi Limthongkul and Chanchai Likhitjitta (privy councillor) their sacrifical lambs...."

Sondhi's son said the incident at the Interior Ministry last week when Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva came under attack had been planned "to kill the prime minister -- and put the blame on the red-shirts."

Jittinart said this "new power group" is putting up military barrier on the outer ring to prevent Thaksin Shinawatr from returning while blocking Premier Abhisit with an inner ring. He said: "The people like us must be united and don't let them hold us hostage."

Why Thais are angry

20 April 2009

New York Times  - Opinion

"Monday was the Thai New Year, a public holiday. Normally you would see people in the streets, having fun and, in keeping with tradition, throwing water at one another. But this year hardly anyone was celebrating in downtown Bangkok. Instead, protesters were clashing with soldiers; at least two people were killed and scores were wounded. I had never seen anything like it. This was raw anger, expressed in wanton violence.

The demonstrators claimed to be protesting systemic injustices and differing standards for rich and poor. But the rebellion reflects a deeper problem. Westerners think of Thailand as a democracy, ruled by the will of the majority. In reality, our country is governed by an establishment made up of the monarchy, military and bureaucracy. Elections are held, but if the establishment doesn’t like the winning party, the government is dissolved. Unable to rely on the ballot box, people take to the streets.

The protesters this time are known as “red shirts,” supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by the military in 2006. Last year, the protesters were “yellow shirts,” members of the People’s Alliance for Democracy Party; most notably, they seized two Bangkok airports. Soon after that, the Constitutional Court abolished the red shirts’ ruling People Power Party, leaving a vacuum to be filled by the current prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. Few would call this democracy.

On Tuesday, the protest leaders called it quits. But Mr. Abhisit and his backers still seem reluctant to recognize the red shirts’ grievances. This is a mistake. Thailand, a constitutional monarchy, must find a path to real democracy. It should not emulate Nepal, a monarchy turned republic, because the unifying symbol of our king is integral to Thai identity. It shouldn’t follow the Philippines, where periodic people’s power movements have brought neither political stability nor economic vibrancy. The last thing we need is a military dictatorship like Myanmar’s. For all the country’s troubles, Indonesia’s transition to democracy after decades of autocratic rule may offer the best model.

The onus rests on Mr. Abhisit and his backers. The elite must stand aside and let the power of the ballot carry the day. We need to discard the undemocratic provisions of the 2007 Constitution and replace them with elements of its popularly drafted 1997 precursor. We need a fully elected legislature, courts that can make impartial decisions on election outcomes and independent watchdog agencies.

By Tuesday afternoon people were out everywhere, celebrating what was left of the New Year. But don’t be fooled by this uneasy calm. Until Thailand becomes a true democracy, we can expect more chaos in the streets."

Thitinan Pongsudhirak is a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University.


Moving on from crisis

19 April 2009 from Reuters

The ruler of Dubai said on Sunday rumours that he had been ill were part of a "psychological war" against the Gulf emirate, and that Dubai had got over the worst of the financial crisis.

Responding to reporters' questions, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum said on his website ( www.uaepm.ae ) that he was in excellent health and had taken part in endurance horse races over the past few months, one of which was over 120 km (75 miles).

"The rumours about me are part of what resembles a psychological war against Dubai over the past months ... I am well, praise God, and my health is in the best form," said Sheikh Mohammed, thought to have been born in 1949, who is also prime minister and vice president of the United Arab Emirates.

Dubai, one of seven emirates that make up the UAE federation, is a regional trade and tourism hub.

Dubai's decision to allow foreign investment in property in 2002 kicked off a regional property boom, but it has since suffered under the global financial crisis.

"We did not at any time feel that the financial crisis is a threat. The worst is over and behind us," said Sheikh Mohammed, who rarely speaks to the media.

"Since the eruption of the crisis, we did not hear of any state-owned bank or company announcing bankruptcy. None of the economy sectors was broken," he said.

He said Dubai would not introduce income taxes as a way of financing any budget deficits.

"We are confident that our national establishments' abilities, combined with the economic measures undertaken by the government, will lead to economic growth this year," Sheikh Mohammed said, adding the tourism sector was in "good shape".

He did not give a forecast for real economic growth, but said it would be lower than in previous years.

"The measures we have undertaken so far have shifted the UAE economy from crisis mode to solution mode," Sheikh Mohammed said. "We are currently implementing plans and programmes of action to ... ensure recovery...."

Sheikh Mohammed said some Western media outlets "connected to international business circles have adopted an intentional method that targeted the ... the Dubai development model".
 

Nicaragua's newest diplomat

18 April 2009

Self-exiled deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, using his diplomatic passport issued by the Nicaraguan government, flew to Nicaragua from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) early Saturday.

According to the Arabian Business, the ousted prime minister has travelled to Nicaragua after he stayed in the UAE for over a month.

Thaksin does not even speak Spanish !

Now do all his family get Nicaraguan nationality !!?

BUT, Nicaragua has denied that it granted passport for convicted ex-Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Matichon newspaper online reported Thursday.

The denial confused earlier news report which said Nicaraguan government issued its passport for Thaksin.

The passport issue was widely interested as Thai government decided to revoke Thaksin's ordinary passport on April 12 out of belief that he was behind the violence caused by his supporters early this week.

Thai-language online reported Thursday said Thai Embassy in Mexico had asked Nicaragua Embassy in Mexico to verify news report that the country has granted special passport for Thaksin.

The online quoted a letter from Nicaragua embassy in Mexico to Thai embassy issued on April 15 as saying that the report was unfounded.

A book, entitled "Thaksin, are you OK?," written by Sunisa Lertpakawat, shows photos of Thaksin's Nicaragua passport and the photo of Thaksin receiving the passport from a man the writer identified only as "Daniel." Nicaraguan president is Daniel Ortega. I have the book and yes the picture is of a diplomatic passport - so in theory he can travel anywhere and do so without a visa.

But after last week maybe he has some explaining to do to his Nicaraguan hosts.

A Nicaraguan primer

As no one in Thailand knows where it is! Here is the Nicaragua briefing.

It is the largest state in Central America with an area of 130,000 km2, about the size of England. The country is bordered by Honduras to the north and Costa Rica to the south. The Pacific Ocean lies to the west of the country, the Caribbean Sea to the east. Falling within the tropics, Nicaragua sits 11 degrees north of the Equator, in the Northern Hemisphere. Nicaragua's capital city is Managua. The country's population is just under 6 million.

The nation's capital is described by Lonely Planet as an admittedly unlovely urban expanse of unsigned, tree-lined boulevards and uninspired modern monoliths that almost never seduce visitors into spending more time here than is absolutely necessary.

BBC Country Profile of Nicaragua

A week of chaos

17 April 2009

It has been an ugly and chaotic week in Bangkok. Strangely two hours away from Bangkok on the coast of the Gulf of Thailand no one seems to care. Everyone is just going about their daily business and hoping above all else for a revival in the country's battered tourism business.

But this battle is not over; at best we have a cease-fire.

At the end of the week it is worth a quick summary of the latest news and commentary. Many Thais get a little concerned at the extent of foreign interest in what they see as domestic issues. This is both unfortunate and misguided. Firstly Thailand is the current chair of ASEAN, the Association of South East Asian Nations. Secondly the nations dependency on tourism, exports and foreign investment require foreign confidence in the security and safety of people and assets.

And the foreigners are concerned:

The New York Times wrote yesterday "While the government has every right and obligation to restore law and order, calling troops on to the streets of the capital puts it in a league with the generals in Burma."

The Economist is once again banned from sale in Thailand. Read this article and you will understand why. It is still available online in Thailand.

Managing the foreign media had become a full time exercise for both Thaksin and Prime Minister Abhisit. Abhisit sounds much the more credible. Thaksin has an interview in the French Le Figaro today.

"À Dubaï où il s'est exilé, l'ancien premier ministre thaïlandais s'est confié au «Figaro». Bien décidé à se défendre, Thaksin Shinawatra appelle le roi à intervenir en faveur de la réconciliation politique et réclame une enquête internationale sur les crimes qu'aurait commis l'armée."

The prime minister of Thailand extended a state of emergency today and vowed to launch an investigation into the assassination attempt on a prominent protest leader that occurred here earlier in the day.

The first salvo has been fired by the Student Federation of Thailand (SFT), a network of over 10 universities in Thailand that has history of activism in the country’s political movements going back many decades.

The SFT is supporting the call by the red shirts for the Abhisit government to resign and hold fresh elections so that the country gets a "people’s government." It also wants the emergency laws repealed.

Abhisit talks about being even handed so it is incomprehensible that he has allowed the police to arrest the UDD leaders while leaving the PAD leaders untouched after months. Is it really that difficult to arrest the PAD leaders?

Meanwhile road accidents claim the lives of 373 people in the first seven days of the Songkran celebration, up five on last year.

Bye Bye Thaksin

17 April 2009

So Mr Thaksin is off to Africa. His Thai passport has been revoked.

Ideally he would also be persona non grata in the UAE. But Thaksin Shinawatra told the Reuters news agency that he will set up a telecommunications consulting business in one of Dubai's free economic zones.

He also appears to have an alternative passport after Nicaraguan officials named Mr. Thaksin a "Nicaraguan ambassador on a special mission" to bring investment to the nation. The central American country issued him a passport in January.

This week's demonstrations and violence in Bangkok should be his political end.

His interviews with the international media networks showed him to be incoherent, bitter, vindictive and completely false with regards to his call for 'true democracy'.

Yes the interviews were in English but this was supposed to be an international statesman and regional leader. He could not string one proper sentence together.

Now most people see him for who he is: not a champion of the poor, but a user of people for his own ambitions. Someone once said that Thaksin has only slaves or enemies. More and more of the former are now the latter.

Meanwhile the conflict which erupted so spectacularly in Bangkok and Pattaya over the past week will probably rumble on, steadily eroding the confidence of investors, tourists and the Thai people, in a stable future for their country.

Dousing the flames

One of the most balance commentaries on the events of this week in Bangkok was written by Jonathan Head of the BBC and can be found here.

Meanwhile the Economist has Thailand as its lead article.

17 April 2009 - The Economist

"BAR-HOPPING visitors to Thailand are warned that minor brawls can turn deadly in the blink of an eye. The same applies to political violence. Over four days of mayhem, Thailand lurched from a mob invasion of a regional leaders’ summit in Pattaya to a military crackdown on protesters in Bangkok and then, on April 14th, to a negotiated surrender to authorities. By restoring order, the reeling government, and the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, won themselves a temporary breathing space.

But a ceasefire is not a peace deal. More ruptures seem certain as Thailand fumbles for a path out of perennial political conflict. Politicians talk of reform, but cannot agree on what to change. The army has closed ranks for now behind Mr Abhisit but its motivations are hard to fathom. Anger and frustration curdle in rival political camps, fed by a partisan press. Even the standard Thai solution of holding fresh elections is unlikely to work. Mr Abhisit’s Democrat Party, which heads the ruling coalition, justifiably fears that, in a free and fair election, voters would, as on the past three occasions, elect a government loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister. Such a government would, inevitably, face protests by the royalist People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), who wear yellow shirts and despise Mr Thaksin.

The latest unrest in Bangkok was led by red-shirted protesters roused by a televised call to arms by Mr Thaksin, a self-exiled fugitive. For three weeks, tens of thousands of red shirts, who call themselves the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), besieged Mr Abhisit’s offices, calling for his resignation and a restoration of unfettered democracy. On April 8th they did the same at the residence of Prem Tinsulanonda, the chief adviser to King Bhumibol and the alleged plotter of a 2006 coup that ousted Mr Thaksin. Three days later, in a remarkable lapse of security, hundreds of unarmed UDD supporters stormed a seaside resort where Asian leaders were gathering, forcing a humiliated Mr Abhisit to cancel the event. The next day he declared a state of emergency in Bangkok to disperse the protesters.

This was a high-stakes gamble that paid off for Mr Abhisit. He fared better than his two predecessors, who faced protracted PAD protests last year. After a hesitant start, combat troops contained sporadic rioting, including pitched battles between red shirts and residents. Over 100 people were injured and two died. The army then cordoned off the main protest camp, where only a few thousand UDD faithful remained. Outgunned and isolated, their leaders surrendered on April 14th, as the rank-and-file trudged past security checkpoints, still mouthing defiance. “We didn’t lose. We can do it again if we want to,” said Jua Saeng-rattana, an elderly cook.

Pulling off another red invasion of Bangkok may be harder. Images of protesters attacking Mr Abhisit’s car and torching buses hurt their credibility as peaceful pro-democracy activists. It also exposed Mr Thaksin as a demagogue who is ready to incite a revolt from his Dubai redoubt. Middle-class voters who admired Mr Thaksin’s leadership skills may become more wary of the rural and urban masses who support him and more receptive to the PAD’s conservative agenda. By taking on Mr Abhisit and his royal backers, UDD leaders apparently bet that a show of mass support would split the security forces and force a reckoning with Mr Thaksin. That never happened. Instead, it is likely to be hardliners in the government and army who call the shots now.

Naturally, the reds see it differently. They accuse the army of shooting dead several protesters and hiding the bodies (the army has denied this). They also claim that the rioting was stoked by pro-government militia and plainclothes soldiers to discredit their movement. In the past, the army’s playbook has featured such tactics. But its mopping up of red-shirt resistance was a fairly professional job. It does, however, raise the question of why the army refused to use emergency powers last year to eject the PAD from Bangkok’s main airport—arguably a graver security threat than a rabble at a roundabout.

The same double standard applies to the protest organisers. Two UDD leaders have been detained and charged, and arrest warrants issued for others on the run. But legal action against PAD leaders has all but stalled under Mr Abhisit. Even Thais who disdain both the rival colour-coded camps smell something fishy here. Red shirts who believe that the ruling elite are conspiring to keep them down will seize on this as evidence. Their anger is unlikely to dissipate and could easily ignite again, just as quickly as it did last time."

A thankful backing down

14 April 2009

All sides appear to have backed down from confrontation for now. Abhisit who was beaten and embarrassed on Saturday in Pattaya looks a little redeemed.

The Foreign Ministry told foreigners on Tuesday that normalcy has returned to the capital since the red shirted protesters were called off. This seems just a little too premature; unless by normalcy the Ministry is thinking uncertainty, instability and potential chaos.

The red-shirts core leader Veera Musikhapong announced an end to the current anti-government protest in Bangkok on Tuesday morning as hundreds of soldiers surrounded the Government House camp where the remaining demonstrators had gathered. Mr Veera said the leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) agreed to end the rally because they were worried about the safety of the protesters.

To speed up the process of sending protesters back home, the authorities sent 60 buses to pick them up at the Royal Plaza. A volatile situation with thousands of protesters at Government House, surrounded by the army, has been defused. The authorities have assisted part by supporting and accelerating the evacuation.

Deputy PM’s Secretary-General and acting Government Spokesman Panithan Wattanayakorn announced Tuesday that the Cabinet resolved to declare Thursday and Friday extra holidays. The extension would allow time to repair and clean up areas where the red-shirt protesters rioted and confronted troops, and to ensure the capital was again secure, he said.

The stock exchange announced only minutes after the national broadcast that the Stock Exchange of Thailand and banks would be open on Thursday and Friday.

The extra holiday is a good political move, so people can cool off. It is also easier for the security forces to manage a less busy city. And of course it is popular !

Financial markets, which have been closed in Thailand this week for a holiday, are expected to react positively to a quick, peaceful end of the protests after the summit debacle.

Meanwhile there have been 220 deaths and 2,658 injuries from road accidents after four days into the “seven dangerous days” period of Songkran holidays travel, according to official figures.

The casualties were derived from a total of 2,468 accidents, a number lower than last year’s accidents count during the same period by 481. However there were only 9 less deaths than last year.

Are the red shirts beaten?

14 April 2009

Channel 11 reported at 11:04 am Tuesday quoting Veera Musigapong, a red-shirted leader, as telling the protesters at the Government House to disperse.

Weng Tojitrakan, another red-shirted leader, asked soldiers to move back by 20 metres so that the protesters could pick up their belongings and disperse.

Veera told the crowd that the voluntarily dispersing was not a defeat of the red-shirted movement but was aimed at protecting the life of the protesters.

Natthawut Saikua joined Veera Musigapong to surrendered at the Royal Plaza at 12:22 pm Tuesday.

He left the rally site and saw the protesters boarding buses to provincial bus terminals.

Then, Natthawut joined Veera who was helping the officials direct protesters to board the buses.
 

Back in the real world - Geriatric porn star an inspiration for the old

14 April 2009

By Kim Kyung-Hoon - Reuters

ICHIKAWA, Japan (Reuters) - He is a typical man of age -- a few white hairs cover his round head and he wears dentures.

But 75-year-old Shigeo Tokuda sat on a movie set on Monday wearing just a silk kimono and loin cloth about to have sex on film with a woman who is younger than his daughter.

Tokuda is Japan's oldest pornographic movie star and was shooting his latest film in which he portrayed a master of sex.

The director said the films showed people that their sex lives did not have to end with old age, and in 16 years of making such movies Tokuda has acted up with women ranging from their 20s to as old as himself.

"I debuted at 59, and have played in more than 200 porno movies since then," he said, using his screen name, not his real one in an interview on the set.

"I wanted to challenge what ordinary people did not, so I decided to be a porno actor."

In Monday's film he used vibrators, whips and candle lights to show the master satisfying a 36-year-old actress. The film was not scripted.

Tokuda turned to the pornographic industry late. He lived a typical Japanese office worker's life as a travel agent after graduating from one of Tokyo's elite colleges.

The career sideline came about because he was unsatisfied with a lack of story lines in sex movies he'd seen, which led to a discussion with a film producer about whether he could do better.

It took a couple of years of thinking about it but Tokuda eventually took his pants off for the camera.

Since then, he has became a popular figure in porn movies for rent in Japan, with its rapidly aging population and long life expectancy. One in five Japanese is over 65 years-old.

"Other old men think they can do it because he can. The elderly can feel secure and encouragement when they see his films," said Gaichi Kono, the director of Tokuda's latest film.

Japan's elderly are rejecting the idea that growing old means slowing down, said Chineko Araki, a professor of social welfare from Den-en Chofu University.

"More than 50 percent of men over 65 are eager to have a sexual relationship with their partners," she said in an email interview.

Tokuda's films will soon be offered to Japanese retirement homes, exports beckon and they may be shown on the Internet.

Tokuda says his wife and daughter pretend not to know and his friends will never guess.

"But my job makes me keep alive," he says, adding he plans to keep going at least till he hits 80 years old."

Morning round up from Bangkok

14 April 2009

The newspaper web sites are quiet this morning. The Los Angeles Times says that "in places, downtown Bangkok had the look of a war zone: an abandoned public bus, choked with flames; patrolling Humvees mounted with .50-caliber guns; angry mobs answering tear-gas grenades with Molotov cocktails and homemade bombs."

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Monday night that the authorities have managed to put the situation in the city mostly under control. In his national television address, Abhisit said the “mission was almost completed”. He reiterated his intention to “return peace to Thai society” before the end of the Songkran holiday on Wednesday.

What Abhisit has not said is what will happen in a few days or weeks ? The Red Shirts are not going to vanish and the social and political divisions in Thailand are not going to  disappear. The political crisis will continue. Abhisit makes a good spokesman for the current bizarre coalition that is this government. But he is not in charge.

Part of the battle is the information war. The thai government is blocking several websites, that are supporting Red Shirts, or criticizing the government or the army. The prime minister also urged the public to explain the truth to foreign media after the red-shirted movement tried to spread rumors that the government killed innocent demonstrators.

Newspapers such as the Nation could not be more clear where their loyalty lies.

Thailand tourism and investment industries can ill afford for the world to see Thai soldiers shooting their own fellow citizens. Army spokesperson Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd said soldiers were not firing real bullets in Monday's clashes. "If the protesters show that they intend to hurt the officials, we will use military training rifles on them with blank bullets made from paper, which will not hurt the protesters."

But foreign media reports talk of live ammunition being used. And red shirt leasers talk of bodies being taken away in army trucks.

Meanwhile a group of red-shirt protesters clashed with more than 100 residents at Mahanak Market on Monday night. Two residents were shot dead and at least 10 people were injured. Reports said the local residents were trying to drive out the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protesters from the area before the clash erupted. The story that it was the red shirt protesters seems to have come directly from the government.

The war of words continues. "If they crackdown on us it will spell the start of a people’s war," says Jakrapob Penkair, a leader of the UDD. "This is not a civil war, a war among equals, with each bearing arms, not knowing who is going to win. This is a war of the have-nots."

"There are more red-shirts around the country. Those who want to crackdown should know this," he told journalists outside the prime minister’s office.

The problem for the red shirts is that their violence has l undermined support for them. There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason to their actions. It is hard to know under whose orders some of the red shirts are operating and what to do, but there is little doubt on the chaos they are causing.

This morning red-shirt leader Jatuporn Phromphan said "the UDD mass at Government House would not be moving anywhere on Tuesday as it might endanger members."

Jatuporn told his supporters troops have blocked all roads leading to the group’s main protest venue to prevent red-shirts upcountry from reinforcing them. He said the group may need to break through military blockades if their food supply was cut off.

Jatuporn told red-shirts that current news reporting by Thai media was corrupt, similar to news reporting during the October 1976 event when only foreign media could be relied on.

Troops have encircled the remaining thousands of protesters encamped near the prime minister's office in the capital.

Although Thaksin is in the background there are likely many Red Shirt politicians that are indifferent whether Taksin returns or not. They have their own financial interests to worry about and they are out in the cold with Yellow Shirts in power.

A new election is not likely to be a solution; Thailand does not really work as a democracy it only has the appearance of one. Even if the elections could be considered fair, neither side would accept the results should they lose. This constant political situation in Thailand is not about one side favoring democracy over the other, it is about who wants to control the country for personal gain. There are few leaders in any of the political parties that don't come with a lot of baggage concerning corruption or rumors of how they achieved or increased their wealth.

Neither side can truly claim to be fighting for the betterment of Thailand. How sad is that.

Censorship as a weapon

13 April 2009

When things get tough a little censorship is good- lets make sure the only message that gets out is the message that the government controls.

Try logging onto http://redir.csloxinfo.com/ iin Bangkok and this is what you see:

This URL has been blocked by
a Court order
Or
it could have an affect on or be against the security of the Kingdom, public order or good morals.

The Songkran toll

13 April 2009

I am not a fan of Songkran; I never have been. It seems as though s festival of celebration is annually reduced to an orgy of mayhem.

The Songkran festival is a killer. Literally.

As a writer note on my tab-board; there will be a massive outcry if the army kills even one red-shirted protestor.

Yet Thailand's news agency is already reporting that 139 people have been killed and 1,718 injured in a total of 1,605 road accidents took place throughout Thailand during the first three days of the so-called ‘most dangerous seven days’ peak period of the Songkran festival.
 
Director-General Anucha Mokhaves of Thailand’s Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department said on Sunday alone, the third day of the period, 675 road accidents occurred  in which 44 people died and 726 were injured.
 
Mr. Anucha said the major reasons behind the road accidents were driving under the influence of alcohol and speeding.
 
Most accidents were recorded in the northernmost province of Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai, the hub of the north, with 72 and 61 incidents respectively, he said.

People seem to lose all sense of reason. It becomes perfectly acceptable in Bangkok to throw buckets of water from the street side over passing motorcycles and vehicles. The danger to motor cycles is obvious; yet ignored.

City sponsored Songkran events in Bangkok have been cancelled. But this wont stop people from celebrating; I still expect Silom will close and that Khao San will be busy.

Another unreported aspect of Songkran are the cases of assault; often of sexual assault. Weekly listings magazine BKK, has a feature this week on 50 tips and tricks to help you survive Songkran. Number 22 reads " Fondle white people. Those big breasted Swedish backpackers are in Khao San. Go get 'em, boys."
Disgraceful. Assault is still assault. Hiding behind Songkran is shameful.

Honestly, I am getting to a point where I am past caring. The country is a mess. Why should I care when the Thais themselves don't seem to care, or to understand basic concepts like respect, fairness and decency? Next year (and Tai may not agree) we need to go somewhere else.

The morning after

13 April 2009

I hate to say I was right but the crackdown came at 5am this morning and is continuing. It was inevitable. The clash between soldiers using tear gas and protesters at Din Daeng intersection early Monday morning injured 77 of those involved. Four were seriously wounded, but no fatalities were reported.

A speaker told the red shirts’ gathering at the main rallying site at Government House about 8.15am that he believed more than six of the protestors have been killed as a result of the early morning crackdown at the Din Daeng intersection area.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on TV this morning denying the reports of deaths. He added that 23 soldiers and 47 protesters were injured. Four soldiers suffered bullet wounds.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva went on the nationwide television with the commanders of the three armed forces at about midnight on Sunday. He repeated the need for the government to take tougher actions against the red-shirt protesters charging of blatantly breaking the law under the guise of struggling for democracy.

The attack against Abhisit's vehicle yesterday showed the sorry state of the premier's security arrangements. In most countries, the attackers would have had their heads blown off.

But he looked very uncomfortable and sat with his hands below the table talking from a script. Meanwhile the leaders of the armed forces and the cabinet all looked like they would rather be somewhere else. This looked a long way from being a united body with a firm and agreed plan of action.

Supreme Commander Gen Songkitti Jakkabat has been appointed director of peace-keeping in Bangkok to enforce the state of emergency law.

In the early morning soldiers shooting in the air and firing tear gas cleared the first small group of red shirts from an area near the Victory Monument. Dozens of people were injured.

Despite the clash at Din Daeng, the red-shirt protesters were still blocking traffic at several main road intersections, including Si Ayuddhaya and Ratchadamnoen. Most protesters were in front of the Government House and its surrounding areas as their leaders urged on the protesters to resist the government.

Siam Paragon shopping mall, five branches of Central Department stores and Zen announced they would be closed until Wednesday. The four Central branches are Central Chidlom, Central Lard Prao, Central Pinklao and Central Silom Complex.
 

At midday on 13 April - Traffic is closed at following areas, intersections

1 Inbound Vibhavadi blocked by 50 protesters and 10 taxis
2 Our Lady Intersection blocked by protesters
3 Intersection between Din Daeng and Victory Monument blocked by 50 protesters
4 Rajprarop Road heading to Din Daeng
5 Si Ayutthaya Intersection blocked by 200 protesters, using 2 buses and 1 truck
6 Urupong Intersection closed by 100 protesters using metal barricades
7 Rajvithi Road in front of Children's Hospital blocked by protesters
8 Inbound Phaholyothin near Victory Monument tollgate blocked by protesters
9 Phayathai Road in front of Rajvithi Road blocked by protesters, using buses and taxis
10 Roads around Government House closed by some 5,000 protesters
11 Royal Plaza blocked by 100 protesters using 1 one and 3 pick-up trucks
12 Rajvithi Intersection closed by police and soldiers
13 Upai Intersection closed by police and troops
14 Saowanee Intersection closed by police and troops
15 Wat Benjamabophit Intersection closed by police and troops
16 Phan Fah intersection blocked by protesters
17 Larn Luang Intersection blocked by protesters
18 Chor Por Ror Intersection blocked by protesters
19 Yommaraj Intersection blocked by 50 protesters and a bus
20 Thevakum Intersection blocked by protesters and metal barricades
21 Wang Daeng Intersection closed by troops
22 Sisao Theves Intersection closed by troops
23 Dindaeng Gateway under control of troops

Aussie media update on EK407

Sunday Herald Sun / April 12, 2009 12:01am

"A FULLY-LADEN jet came only centimetres from crashing at Melbourne Airport last month, it has been revealed.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau has placed it in the most serious category of aircraft mishap available to it - an accident, rather than an incident.

An ATSB investigation update shows the accident was labelled a "significant event" by investigators, who also listed damage to the aircraft as "substantial".

"During the take-off the aircraft's tail scraped the runway surface. Subsequently smoke was observed in the cabin," the report says.

A Sunday Herald Sun investigation has confirmed that the flight - EK407 to Dubai - almost failed to become airborne and barely made it over the airport perimeter fence, half a kilometre away.

Damage to the $220 million plane is so severe that the airline is considering writing it off rather than repairing it.

The fully-laden Airbus A340-500 was believed to have been travelling about 280km/h when it reached the end of the runway without becoming airborne.
At the last minute, the two pilots "rotated" the plane - or pulled its nose up into a steep ascent - causing its tail to crash into the end of the runway.

Despite its steep climb, the plane was still so low that it wiped out strobe lights that were only 70cm high and positioned 170m from the end of the runway.

It then took out an antenna, believed to be near a small building, before barely making it over the 2.44m wire perimeter fence.
Aviation expert Dick Smith said something had gone badly wrong.

"It's the closest thing to a major aviation accident in Australia for years," he said.

"The people (passengers) are incredibly lucky, it was an overrun where the plane didn't get airborne."

Mr Smith said Emirates was a "very good airline" and it was strange the pilots had resigned immediately after the accident.

"Emirates' standards are very high and they have a lot of Australian pilots," he said.

"What I'm startled by is that there hasn't been a more immediate announcement. We should get some urgent advice from the ATSB. This is one of the most serious accidents you can imagine."

A Melbourne Airport spokeswoman confirmed the size of the strobe lights, which are on a grassed area between the end of the runway and the perimeter fence, which runs alongside Operations Rd.

"The height of the runway strobe lights is 0.7m above ground level," she said."

Thaksin's role

12 April 2009

Ok call me foolish, but until the last couple of days I had some sympathy for ex Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

After all - he was elected - sure he bought votes; but he was undeniably popular.

Yes he was corrupt, but he put Thailand on the global map; he gave Thais back a pride in their nation. Even his anti drugs campaign, while massively abusing human rights, was popular at home.

He was overthrown by a coup. The army government was inept. When elections were held the Thaksin backed party won again. And it took massive protests and judicial intervention to remove the TRT and its successors from government.

Abhisit's Democrats were not elected. They were installed with the tacit support of the army and yellow shirted PAD.

Thaksin meanwhile took refuge overseas having been convicted in a Bangkok court.

Meanwhile Abhisit was calling the red shirts enemies of the state. The Democrats were silent last year when the yellow shirts brought the country to its knees in an 8 day occupation of the airport. One UDD leader can be arrested within 24 hours, but it is 4 months since the airport takeover with no arrests. There is no even handedness of government. No wonder people are angry and feel disenfranchised.

But Thaksin is pushing too hard now. He is talking revolution. He is stirring hatred. And I fear that there is going to be a violent crackdown, a showdown and loss of life.

He could call for calm; he could tell people to go home for the holiday. He could agree that it is time to negotiate a way forward for Thailand out of three years of mob rule chaos. The mobs are out of control; the sheer hatred in some of the violence is truly alarming.

Yet Thaksin made a phone-in to the rally at the Government House at 6:30 pm tonight calling for more people to join anti-government rallies in Bangkok.

He said it was the “golden time” now for the protesters to rise up against the government after soldiers were deployed to Bangkok streets.

He said it was now time for the people’s revolution and he was ready to move into Thailand to lead the people’s uprising.

There is no reconciliation now; not when he has come this far.
 

Mob rule

12 April 2009

Pictures of the attack on a government car at the Interior Ministry are very scary. The mob used paving stones, bars, hammers to attack the car - there is a monk smashing his fists on the car. The police and security forces stand by and watch.

The mob thought that the PM or Deputy PM were in the car. Abhisit is rumoured to have left by helicopter. The driver must have been terrified.

This is mob rule. There can be no sympathy for anyone, whatever the colour of shirt, that resorts to such ugly violence. This is getting scary.

For the foreigners who have seen all this before the major concern is whether the bars will still be open.

The view from ASEAN

12 April 2009

Prime Minister Abhisit after canceling the ASEAN summit yesterday insisted that leaders told him they sympathised with him and hoped the summit would be resumed as soon as possible.

But that is not quite how the regional press see events: The Malaysia Star's commentary follows:

"NOTHING less than a chaotic and disgraceful farce describes yesterday’s violent clashes in Pattaya.

This would-be venue of the Asean summit, convened for heads of government in Asean and its dialogue partners, erupted in a series of violent melees as planned by anti-government protesters.

Demonstrators battling in the streets stormed a hotel armed with Molotov cocktails, slingshots with bolts and other weapons.

And yet the government must have seen it coming. The tide of protesters, supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hoping to topple Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, had been building for days in the area.

Official preparations for security, if there had been any at all, seemed amateurish at best. If such incompetence was what the protesters wanted to expose in destroying the government’s credibility, they succeeded impeccably.

The Abhisit government is now the laughing stock of the region and the world, allowing among other things Pattaya’s loss of an estimated 200bil baht (RM20.3bil) in tourist receipts for this year alone. A further implication: if the government cannot even secure a conference venue, how can it hope to do so for an entire nation saddled with myriad challenges?

No other country would allow public safety and the security of visiting foreign leaders to be compromised so shabbily.

For months already, the government seemed to stand idly by as two of the country’s biggest airports were hijacked, key government offices occupied and Bangkok traffic disrupted. And the shocking collapse in public order continued, without any apparent rectification or safeguards against future incidents.

What happened to law enforcement? How Thailand deals with its dissidents, miscreants and malcontents is its problem, but it cannot assume any right to host an international summit and risk the safety of its many guests in the process."
 

Latest from Thailand - updated

12 April 2009

12 April

11 April

Farce, fiasco. shambles!

11 April 2009

There really is no other way to describe it - other than a fiasco, a farce, a shambles. And another sad day for Thailand.

To be honest all the violence is from a small minority. In Bangkok everyone is out pre-Songkran shopping. And there was not a red shirt in site around Siam today.

The ASEAN summit should never have been allowed to proceed. It was obvious after last week's demonstrations in Bangkok that there would be trouble in Pattaya; a lawless town at the best of times.

So here is a quick summary of where we are now and what happened today:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced a state of emergency in Pattaya and Chon Buri on Saturday afternoon after red-shirt protesters broke into the Royal Cliff Beach hotel, the venue of the 14th Asean Summit in Pattaya.

He also confirmed the indefinite postponement of the Asean summit and related meetings. This is a cancellation not a psotponement.

Mr Abhisit said Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban had been instructed to implement the enforcement of the Emergency Decree. What does that mean?

The announcement came after protesters led by United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) core-member Arisman Pongruengrong swarmed through the venue, the Royal Cliff Hotel, including entering the Royal Wing where the leaders and their delegations were housed.

Earlier in the day about 2,000 red-shirt protestors clashed with local residents wearing blue about 9am as the UDD mob tried to block the long narrow road leading to the South Pattaya hotel.

Reuters photographers said the "blue shirts," wearing balaclavas around their heads to keep from being identified, were armed with truncheons, bricks and slingshots. Who armed them? Who organised them? Was the Chonburi godfather involved; Khaman Poh's son is rumoured to be sponsoring the Blues who appear to be lined up with the police.

The Nation and other Thai press (and the government) described the blue shirts as concerned "local people” from Pattaya, do-gooders who want to defend the Asean summit and foreign leaders. Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban gave an interview to Channel 3 that local people in Pattaya and Chon Buri would come out to prevent red-shirted people from disrupting the Asean summit with dialogue partners. He said the local residents would act as volunteers to help the government keep order.

The Straits Times correspondent reported in this blog.

The pictures suggest otherwise. Abhisit does not appear to want to use (or maybe cannot control) the police or the army. So instead the government seems to have used a hired mob to try to keep control.

The leaders of Japan, China and South Korea from making their way to the summit venue, as they were housed at the Dusit Resort and Amari hotels in North Pattaya. Why were they in hotels at the other end of the city from the conference venue.

Foreign leaders were evacuated by helicopter from the Royal Cliff resort. However PM Abhisit was the first to fly out of town, whisked away to the U-Tapao naval airfield. The leaders of the Philippines, Burma and Vietnam followed by choppers to the airstrip, where planes were on standby to take them home. Other leaders left by road.

The Australian Prime Minister never even got there - he turned around mid flight and went home.

Only a week ago police in the UK managed assorted massive protests across London during the G20 conference which saw little more trouble than a few broken windows. In Thailand the army and police cannot protect the South, cannot protect the airports or government house, cannot stop traffic blockades (despite government claims that they knew about it in advance),  cannot protect heads of state and use vigilantes to keep the peace.

The Thai media miss the point and are too busy blaming Thaksin. Someone needs to take control. No one is.

What next for Abhisit?

10 April 2009 -

The Reuters analysis below misses one unknown - what will be the response of the PAD - they will want the government to take action against the red shirts. And who were the masked and armed blue shirts who provoked so much chaos today.

"Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's decision to declare a state of emergency around a cancelled Asian summit has narrowed his options in dealing with anti-government protesters and raises questions about whether he has the backing of the military.

Political developments in the next 48 hours could determine the fate of his four-month-old coalition government.

Here are some possible consequences:

* The degree of enforcement by security forces of the emergency will determine Abhisit's largely untested leadership, and whether he can keep the emboldened, largely rural supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra under control.

* Abhisit has been considerably weakened by his failure to stop the demonstrators getting anywhere near the summit, which will be interpreted as a sign of indecisiveness even if the aim was to avoid bloodshed.

* Abhisit's gamble on invoking an emergency risks fomenting widespread civil strife with unpredictable consequences if the military fails to stand firmly behind him.

* Bloodshed following any crackdown on Thaksin's red-shirted supporters will put pressure on Abhisit to step down and call a snap election, or let Thailand's fractious parliament choose a successor.

* Bloodshed could even lead to the military stepping in and mounting another coup, after the one in 2006 that ousted Thaksin, although the army has made it clear repeatedly during months of unrest that it did not want to get involved in politics again.

* Any snap election raises prospects of political parties backing Thaksin emerging winners, which would pave the way for the return of the former leader, who lives in exile after fleeing to escape a two-year jail term for abuse of power. This would like trigger a fresh series of mass protests.

* Abhisit's mistake in underestimating the protesters weakens his political standing and threatens his leadership of the Democrat Party.

* The demonstration by the "red shirts" had been largely peaceful until the arrival on the scene of a mysterious group of blue-shirted, pro-government protesters, their faces covered and armed with clubs and slingshots, which they used. Abhisit will have to address rumours that these were military personnel, used by the authorities to do their dirty work while the police and troops followed orders not to use violence."

Charnchai assassination plot thickens

9 April 2009

What is going on? Was there a real plot; is this soap opera? Who was the mastermind ? Who asked the army officer (the aide) to design this operation ? Was he on his own ? Who benefits if the alleged plot had been carried out?  What does Abhisit do ? Will he keep Deputy PM Sanan as his deputy ?

The link to the deputy PM arose when the Thai Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for a close aide to Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart over accusations he masterminded the alleged assassination attempt on Charnchai Likitjitta.

Charchai is one of the Privy Council members; the advisors to Thailand's revered royal family. Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has accused Mr Charnchai of being one of the main people behind the military coup that toppled his government in September 2006.

The whole plot already sounds like bad soap opera  and it gets even more alarming when Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban and national police chief Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwan have to hold a press conference to say that the conspiracy to assassinate privy councillor and former supreme court president Charnchai Likitjitta is real and to insist that there had been several attempts on his life,

Mr Suthep told a press conference that the arrested suspects had confessed to making three attempts on the life of Mr Charnchai — twice on Saturday and once on Sunday.

Here are the details - as best I can work out through the mire.

The alleged leader of the plot is  Major Thienchai Muangjanthuek, who police say has admitted accepting 1.5 million baht from a northern businessman to arrange the assassination of Mr Charnchai. Note the Northern businessman link. There are unsubtle hints linking ex PM Thaksin throughout the English language reporting.

Maj Thienchai was identified by three suspects who were arrested near Mr Charnchai's house on Monday. They admitted making three failed attempts on the privy councillor's life, according to police who say Maj Thienchai admitted paying Kamik Sukkanchanaka 600,000 baht to arrange the assassination of the former supreme court president. Which means he was keeping Baht 900,000 to himself. Thienchai says he was paid Bt1.5 million for the job, which included the killing as well as arson attacks on 10 banks and government installations around Bangkok.

Mr Kamik passed the contract to Mr Panupong Ratanapaiboon who in turn asked Mr Sakchai sae Lim to shoot Mr Charnchai in exchange for 40,000 baht. Mr Panupong and Mr Sakchai are motorcycle taxi drivers at Wat Laksi in Bangkok. Some sources say this amount was Baht 140,000 to each of Panupong and Sakchai.

You have to like this; Of an original Baht 1.5 million for the contract the gunman was to receive onty Baht 40,000. How cheap can a life be?

Police said Mr Panupong met Mr Kamik in Pathum Thani on March 31 and received a gun. He was given Mr Chanchai's photo the next day and later 38-calibre bullets by Maj Thienchai.

Meanwhile Major Thienchai appears to have identified Navy Captain Chakkrit Sekhanant as the instigator of the plot.

Police then issued warrants yesterday - one for Chakkrit Sekhanant, Maj Gen Sanan's close aide, and a man identified only as "Jack", who allegedly served as a go-between in the alleged assassination attempt.

The Deputy Prime Minister, Maj Gen Sanan, who is now in Japan, has been rapidly distancing himself from his former aide. He admitted he had asked Capt Chakkrit to work at the PM's Office during the Samak administration. But he said that Capt Chakkrit transferred back to the navy and that he, Maj Gen Sanan, no longer had any connection with him. Sanan said that he was stunned by the news of his arrest and alleged involvement in a conspiracy to murder the privy councillor.

Chakkrit has surrendered to police and denied all allegations. Chakkrit is reported to have serve in an Armed Forces unit that guards VIPs. UDD leader Jakrapob Penkair claimed that Chakkrit was once in Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanond’s security detail.

Provincial Police Region 1 commander Chalong Sonjai said the police had enough witnesses and evidence to take legal action against Capt Chakkrit. Major Thienchai allegedly received the contract from Capt Chakkrit through someone called "Jack". 

Two of the suspects (why were they both there when there was only one gunman and one gun ?) were arrested near the privy councillor’s home on Soi Suk Sawat 66 in Phra Pradaeng district, Samut Prakan province, on Monday. At a press conference, police displayed a .38 calibre pistol, bullets and bank book allegedly showing money being transferred as payment.

Police assigned to guard the privy councillor’s residence during the mass anti-government protest led by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) are understood to have made the arrest on Monday. Apparently police at a checkpoint in the Prachachuen area seized their motorcycle as it did not have a licence plate. Interrogation uncovered the assassination plot and led to the arrest of Mr Kamik and Maj Thienchai.

Is this for real? Is it a convenient sub-plot to create chaos before the- Red Shirt rally on Wednesday?

Was there a real intent to kill someone known to be the enemy of Thaksin; would the evidence trail then lead to Thaksin.

Was there a real plot by red shirt supporters to kill one of his enemies. I don't think so. The red shirts now appear too well organised to make foolish mistakes.

Or was it just an attempt to divert attention and to add to the current confusion. Haas it now got out of hand.

Is it just a business dispute that happens to have escalated at this time?



 

Masters Par 3 event is a family affair

9 April 2009

Legends:  Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Gary Player pose with Player's grandson, William.

The Par 3 event is the traditional curtain raiser to the US Maters and is played on the Wednesday before the tournament starts. For the second year it was televised on ESPN.

It is a fun event with the golfers relaxing while their families often act as caddies.

Anthony Kim, a Masters rookie, had his father on the bag.

Greg Norman's caddie was his wife, tennis great Chris Evert. And they had reason to celebrate. Norman had a hole in one on the sixth hole and gave his caddie a smooch.

But the biggest cheer was for 73 year old Gary Player. Trouble was, it was for his third shot. Player, in the "Big Three" group with Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer, dumped one in the water at No. 9, so he teed up another and watched his shot hit the green, spin and roll back into the cup. His 7-year-old grandson and caddy was suitably impressed.

And South African Tim Clarke holed in one at the 9th (and last) hole for a 5 under par 22 to win this year's event.

Jack Nicklaus shot a 2 under 25.

As for the big event itself - I think Justin Rose is due a good week.....

Arabtec CEO's feeble response to the BBC

9 April 2009

Arabtec Holding chief executive Riad Kamal tried rather unsuccessfully to respond to BBC’s Panorama show which claimed the firm’s labour camps were filthy and overcrowded.

Kamal accused Panorama of being unfair in its reporting of the living and working conditions of workers of Arabtec Construction, a subsidiary of Arabtec Holding.

The trouble is Kamal has not seen the programme.

Arabtec employs a total of 62,000 people, and has more than 20 camps in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. “They have been very unfair not only to Arabtec but to Dubai,” Kamal said to Arabian Business. Panorama reported on overflowing sewage; Kamal's reponse was “I am not sure when and where they (Panorama) went into any of our camps. It may be that during the rainy season some of the tanks overflowed, but this is not the norm.”

So he actually said that there is overflowing sewage. And then he blamed the labourers for their living conditions saying many of the workers came from poor backgrounds and their standard of cleanliness was not as high as the firm would like.

He firmly rejected allegations of overcrowding in rooms in the camps, claiming a maximum of six workers lived in each room. The BBC report shows a very different reality.

Depending on the amount of overtime done by workers, he argues that the average take-home wage for an unskilled labourer was $225 a month, with a skilled labourer taking home about $277 a month, he said.

The workers interviewed by the BBC talked about a lower number which may be the cash they actually receive as a result of various salary deductions.

Kamal said that Arabtec kept labourers’ passports for “security” reasons but that they were able to regain their passport and leave the UAE whenever they chose. It is apparently illegal for an employer to retain passports.

What Kamal should have done is watch the programme first. Then complete a transparent investigation perhaps in cooperation with one of the NGOs here. Then he should seek to implement best practice.

In 19th century Britain working conditions in teh early indutrial revolution were shameful. Enlightened company owners like George Cadbury and Joseph Rowntree built model towns in Bournville and York filled with hope while creating famous brands that have stood the test of time.

Arabtec could take the lead in reforming workers' welfare in the UAE. Now that would be a great story.

40th anniversary and now coming to Dubai

8 April 2009

Concorde made its maiden flight on 9 April 1969. Three months before man landed on he moon and 12 years before Tai was born !

An engineering miracle; a design classic. When Concorde was retired six years ago aviation went backwards.

The last of British Airways Concordes has been in storage at Heathrow Now there are rumours of it coming to join the QE2 in Dubai. No Concorde has ever worn Emirates colours but here is a clever photoshop of what it might have looked like.

On 9th April 1969 the British version of the graceful delta-winged aircraft took to the skies on its maiden flight. It was a 22-minute journey made by Concorde 002 from Filton, Bristol, to Fairford, Gloucestershire.

British Airways had promised to put a Concorde on public display at Heathrow; but their marketing is distancing the airline from the Concorde image. Nowa Dubai-based consortium, advised by former BA Concorde crew, is planning to turn the aircraft into a tourist attraction, possibly on one of the manmade palm-shaped islands. It would be jointly marketed with the QE2, which was sold to Dubai last year to become a floating hotel.

The aircraft’s wings would have to be sliced off before it could be loaded on to a ship for transport.

By contrast, an Air France Concorde stands proudly on a plinth outside the airline’s headquarters at Charles de Gaulle airport, Paris. Another one is preserved at the Paris Air and Space Museum by former engineers who regularly run the electronic and hydraulic systems.

BA ordered in 2003 that Concorde’s systems should be disabled and the airline consistently refuses to help any of the groups seeking to get the aircraft back in the air.

Two years ago, BA removed a model of Concorde from a roundabout on the approach road from the M4 to Heathrow where it had been for 16 years. It has been replaced with a model of an Emirates Airbus A380 superjumbo.

The Dubai consortium has said that it would spend several million pounds restoring the aircraft’s interior, much of which was removed and used as spares on other Concordes.

This particular Concorde could not fly again. Model Alpha Bravo did not have the safety modifications made to others after the Paris crash in 2000.

It's red shirt mayhem day in Bangkok

8 April 2009

Today's red shirt protest is underway in Bangkok - and here is some of the breaking news from the day:

It was a good turn out for the red shirts; and it does look as though the organisers have managed to keep the demonstrations peaceful and incident free. But 100,000 peaceful demonstrators will not bring down the current government. And with the holiday approaching the authorities will be hoping the crowds go home.

The only concern should be the ASEAN meeting in Pattaya; where there is plenty of opportunity for a noisy and potentially heated demonstration.

Escalating tensions but solution unlikely

7 April 2009

Tomorrow is D-Day for the red-shirted protesters' version of the "people's revolution", with their leaders expecting at least 300,000 to 500,000 protesters. Let's start this piece vy saying that 300,000 is unlikely. But I really dont think that the numbers matter much.

It is a war of words at the moment; but the tensions are increasing and violence looks more likely for the next couple of days before everyone goes away to get wasted over Songkran!

One highlight today has been a tearful Newin Chidchob launching his verbal attack on his former boss Thaksin Shinawatra. Chidchob asked Thaksin to stop the red shirted movement's activities that may have upset His Majesty the King.

Newin's voice was choked with emotion when he said he was ready to die for the monarchy and would do anything to fight those who wanted to destroy the monarchy.

Newin needs the support of Thaksin's previous NE power base if he is going to be a serious contender as the next Prime Minister.

Newin continues to deny that he betrayed Thaksin by turning to support Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to form the government.

Meanwhile the foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, has met with three Middle East envoys to prevent Thaksin from using their countries to launch attacks on the government.

In a meeting held at Democrat Party headquarters rather than at the foreign ministry, Mr Kasit told envoys from Dubai, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates that he felt "uncomfortable" that Thaksin was using their countries while "attacking Thailand".

He invited Thai Muslims to the meeting, according to the official Thai News Agency, but there are no further details.

Mr Kasit, who please remember was an active participant in anti-Thaksin action since 2006, including seizing the Bangkok airports last year, told the foreign envoys that some countries had already complied with the Thai government's request to deny shelter to the fugitive ex-premier.

There were protests today in Pattaya and worryingly they turned ugly. Hundreds of protesters trapped Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva inside a beach hotel for several hours on Tuesday, raising tensions ahead of a key Asian summit beginning there on Friday. They later attacked his motorcade when he left.

All of this simply creates a sense of general apprehension as people watch anxiously what will happen next. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjava, in his nation-wide television address Monday, appeared to be confident that the situation is under control and that it is not necessary for the government to declare a state of emergency in dealing with the protesters.

The numbers don't matter as I said - what is said and what is thought does matter. Thaksin has taken the protests into new territory. The red shirts are challenging the status quo. Thaksin spoke out against members of the Privy Council - an act no politician has attempted before. This was once unimaginable in Thailand.  For many this should be attractive; open debate is a sign of progress in a democracy. But many will feel threatened by this new bravado.

I do not see the red crowds as either blind lovers of Thaksin or paid protesters. But too many people are blinded to what the red shirts really stand for. People who genuinely love democracy, freedom of expression and accountability have joined the Red protest.

It is of course laughable to equate Thaksin with democracy; he hardly promoted democratic ideals when he was Prime Minister as he muzzled any criticism and showed utter disregard for human rights.

But he was elected by the people. So is Thaksin really leading the red shirts or does the movement have a life and ambition of its won?  There are plenty of red-clad liberals who insist that their joining the movement is not about Thaksin at all but because they are either sick of the military coups d'etat or the injustice in society.

The trouble is in Thailand that both sides assume that if you are not with them you are against them. This makes mediation almost impossible. And as foreigners we are simply told either that we dont understand or that the foreign media is simply being paid off by one side or the other. Nonsense.

Its like McCarthyism. This desire to suppress or prosecute people who think differently.

Doing so would be wrong. Somehow Thailand needs open non-critical debate across the political ideologies and does not debate personalities.

Just a thought; give Thaksin back his money and ask him to go away and stay out of Thailand and Thai politics; forget bringing him home as a martyr. And then engage the more reasonable red shirts and move to a fresh election with foreign observors.

A price on his head

7 April 2009

It is like one of those old wild west wanted posters. Thaksin has a price on his head !

A prize money of Bt1 million was offered yesterday to bring to Thailand fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was blamed for the ongoing political conflict. A group of people, calling themselves "United Siam", made the offer at a press conference at the Rajabhat Suan Dusit University. The group includes retired bureaucrats, senators, academics and business people. Namely lots of people in yellow shirts!

General Somjet Bunthanom, one of the members of the Council for National Security formed after the September 2006 coup, said yesterday that the offer was aimed at preventing the country from getting into another crisis.

"It's clear that Thaksin is the root cause of the problems. So we are offering the prize money of Bt1 million to anyone who can bring Thaksin to be prosecuted in Thailand," he said.

The general said the money would be paid by business people who "see Thaksin as a severe threat to the country and its people".

But it is not enough money. Baht 1million. Not enough! Thaksin can simply offer more!

Very bizarre really. What are people supposed to do. Kidnap him on the street and fly him immobilised back to Bangkok?

Another daft proposal which simply stirs up the political discontent.

That handshake

7 April 2009

I am not the only one who saw Obama's handshake with the policeman outside No. 10. This was my blog entry on 2 April - "Obama was walking back in No10 Downing Street with his pet poodle - sorry I mean the British Prime Minister. Obama reached out to shake the hands of the policeman standing guard at the entrance. How many other country leaders would think to do that and do it in such a genuine way. He is a class act"

And now one of Britain's most repected writers has picked up the same theme.

AA Gill, writing in the International Herald Tribune yesterday saw the same handshake.

"It's invariably the little things, the unconsidered, off the cuff, in passing, unrehearsed things that snag our attention, and seem to be telling of the bigger things. In the case of Barack Obama’s first visit to London and the Group of 20 conference to save the endangered habitat of bankers and real estate salesmen, it was the handshake with the bobby that seemed to be emblematic. In a forest of waving palms, this handshake meant more.

As the president stepped up to 10 Downing Street, he leant over, made eye contact, said something courteous, and shook the hand of the police officer standing guard. There’s always a police officer there; he is a tourist logo in his ridiculous helmet. He tells you that this is London, and the late 19th century. No one has ever shaken the hand of the policeman before, and like everyone else who has his palm touched by Barack Obama, he was visibly transported and briefly forgot himself. He offered the hand to Gordon Brown, the prime minister, who was scuttling behind.

It was ignored. He was left empty-handed. It isn’t that Mr. Brown snubbed the police officer; he just didn’t see him. To a British politician, a police officer is as invisible as the railings.

But the rest of us noticed. Because in this country that still feels the class system like a phantom limb, being overtly kind to servants is the very height of manners, the mark of true nobility. Being nice to the staff is second only to being nice to dogs as a pinnacle of civilization. Remember: a butler’s not just for Christmas. Apparently, the Obamas searched every cupboard and closet in Downing Street to personally thank all the servants for looking after them. That’s classlessly classy.

You often wonder what visiting dignitaries make of your country; American presidents must think that the whole world is in a constant state of riot. Wherever they go, CNN is full of angry banners, burning flags and tear gas. I went and joined the London riot. It was depressingly flabby, and half-hearted. Not so much a demonstration as a queue of arcane special pleading groups, ranging from anarchists for bicycles (who all waited politely at the traffic lights) and one-world vegans. Altogether, they looked like a collective of European street mimes.

A couple of broken windows and teeth, and that was it. The London police have discovered that the best way to neuter demonstrations is not to move everyone on, or disperse troublemakers, but hold them close, cordon them into a diminishing space for hours and hours, as a sort of arbitrary al fresco arrest. The crowd goes from righteous indignation to fury to despair, and ends up pleading. They’re all desperate to go. It’s crowd control by bladder control: effective but probably illegal.

The Obamas were likely also surprised at how black the old white colonial country is. Ethnic diversity is shamelessly and embarrassingly pushed to the front of every publicity shot. Michelle Obama went to a girls school where a gospel song was performed and where she made a surprisingly moving speech. All the world leaders’ wives are herded together in cultural outings of excruciatingly bland probity, but Mrs. Obama rose above it, and seemed to really inspire this group of young girls. It was noticed. The rest of the women grinned and clutched their handbags, apparently wondering when they could get away to Harrods.

The other thing that she rose above was Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip: Honey, we shrunk the royal family. If ever we needed a totemic image of the merits of a republic over a monarchy, this was it.

Of all the G-20 wives, Carla Bruni, a k a Mrs. Nicolas Sarkozy, was noticeably absent. With her carefully demure wardrobe and the fluttered eyes of a reformed and legitimized mistress, she was too canny to let her herself be compared to those dumpy other halves. It left one dying to see what Jackie O.-type manipulation would go down when the Obamas crossed the Channel for the NATO summit meeting.

The French are never happy coming to London; this is an ancient and comforting enmity. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France plays nicely to our patronizing stereotypes. He is a small man, a Gallic in lifts who can’t hide the puffed-up, tip-toe insecurities of his shortness. Almost as if he wanted the world to think he has Napoleon syndrome, he postured and pouted and made arbitrary demands, and drew lines in the sand.

The truth is that the French have never really got over being dumped at the altar of the “special relationship.” It should have been them. It was after all, the French who gave you the Statue of Liberty and the keys to the Bastille and who think Jerry Lewis is funny. What did the English ever give you? Muffins and a burnt White House.

The Germans, too, might have imagined a tighter partnership. In terms of ancestry, America is a far more German country than an Anglo-Saxon one, and they have the biggest economy in Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and Mr. Sarkozy made a joint statement that they would categorically veto any further bailouts or attempts to spend our way out of debt, and then a mere 24 hours later they were beaming and shaking hands over an extra trillion-dollar binge.

The salutary fact is that when you look at the grinning group photograph, there is only one face you want to see. This conference was about saving the world, but more important for the participants, it was about saving their political lives. Mr. Obama is the only popular politician left in the world. He would win an election in any one of the G-20 countries, and his fellow world leaders will do anything to take home a touch of that reflected popularity.

We may be in the rare position of having an American president who has a deeper mandate among people who could never vote for him than with those who did. For the time being, he has only to offer his hand, and ask politely."

A. A. Gill is a contributing writer for Vanity Fair and The Sunday Times of London.
 

Slumdogs and millionaires

Ben Anderson - BBC Panorama reporter on 6 April 2009

Panorama is the longest-running current affairs documentary series in the world.[1] Launched on 11 November 1953 on BBC television, it focuses on investigative journalism. Today the BBC released another very critical report on Dubai’s labor camps (how I hate that name) titled “The dark side of Dubai”.

The trouble is this is not the first such report. Nothing has changed. Maybe attention from the BBC might get some attention here.

I see every day what this reporter (Ben Anderson) has seen for three months. Dubai is not alone in having a huge gulf between those that have and those that don't; between the millionaires and the slumdogs. The trouble is that in Dubai there is enough wealth, and the boom is so new, that things could have been done so very differently. Proper work visa and contracts, decent accommodation, proper clean and sanitary facilities, medical care, access to communication with home and salaries that make being in Dubai worthwhile.

This is the BBC's text report.

"Just say the word Dubai and the images appear: impossible glass structures glistening in the year-round sun, perfect man-made beaches, yachts, private helicopters, malls and spreads of food that would satisfy Roman emperors - all the things huge amounts of new money can buy.

And yet for me these images are the opposite of what should come to mind.

Having spent the last three months travelling there, I no longer think of the seven star Burj Al Arab hotel when I think of Dubai, but of emaciated, wretched men, lining up for buses before the sun has risen, resigned to the fact that their hard day's work wouldn't earn them enough to buy a round of coffee here. The branding of Dubai has to be one of the greatest PR triumphs of the past 20 years.

It works out incredibly well for the developers - they can charge first world fortunes for the dream villas and apartments, but pay third world salaries to the men actually building them.

Many in Dubai say that this is just globalisation working, and that while the lives of the workers, and the salaries they are paid, look bad to us, to them, where they come from, it's good.

This excuse doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

The story of Dubai's immigrant construction workers shocks and depresses in several different stages. The poor and often illiterate men, who come here in their millions from the Indian sub-continent, are getting exploited from so many different angles that it's sometimes hard to know who to be angry at.

It all starts in their home countries - often India or Bangladesh, where local recruitment agents promise them high salaries and generous overtime payments.

But often they also charge a "visa" or "transit" fee, averaging 200,000 taka, or £2,000 ($2,980).

This is supposed to be illegal.

The workers pay the fee because they believe the figures they've been promised. In most cases, it will take them the entire two-to-three year contract for them just to pay back that fee and break even.

It often takes that long because many developers, or their sub-contactors pay shockingly low wages - often less than £120 ($178.83) a month, for, on average, a 10-hour a day, six-day working week.

We followed dozens of workers back to their "labour camps" where they cooked rice and potatoes (they can only afford meat or fish two-to-three times a month) in filthy rooms equipped with the most basic gas hobs.

In one camp sewage had leaked out from toilet blocks, and there was so much of it that the workers had built an entire network of stepping-stones just to get to their accommodation blocks.

"The dream," as one Indian recruitment agent told me "soon turns into a nightmare the moment they arrive."

Upon arrival, they are then bussed to their labour camp, where they will share a room with at least six other workers for the duration of their time in Dubai.

If they are given contracts, they are often not worth the paper they are written on, and collective bargaining and trade unions are illegal in Dubai anyway.

The developments we investigated are both enthusiastically endorsed by a long line of celebrities, who allow themselves to be described as "ambassadors."

England footballer Michael Owen, cricketer Freddie Flintoff and golfer Sam Torrance endorse developments by the First Group in Dubai's Sports City.

British celebrity chef Jamie Oliver, golfers Greg Norman, Vijay Singh, and Sergio Garcia are all ambassadors for Jumeirah Golf Estates, which will be home to the $20M "Race to Dubai," the richest tournament in the golfing world.

The master developer of Jumeirah Golf Estates is a company called Leisurecorp, which owns Turnberry and has a stake in Troon.

We looked hard for a single example of good practice on two different developments, interviewing dozens of workers employed by many different companies - some British, some owned by the Dubai government.

But I didn't find a single exception, not one worker who hadn't paid a visa fee, not one who was being well paid (the highest monthly salary I heard of was being paid to a skilled crane operator- approximately £220 ($327) a month), not one who could eat well or was free to go home if he chose to.

They all said they were much worse off than they had been back at home.

"We are doing slavery," said one worker, "we feel we are in jail, it's like a prison sentence. This is how I feel. I am helpless. What can I do?"

Nick McGeehan, who runs Mafiswasta, one of the few NGOs working on behalf of the immigrant construction workers, is not surprised. I asked him what role we were playing in this, as property buyers, or as one of the million plus British tourists that visited Dubai last year.

"You're contributing, directly or indirectly, to the enslavement of a migrant workforce. That's a difficult pill to swallow, but when you look at the evidence that's a fact."

And what about the celebrities who endorse these developments, some of whom told us they sought, and got, re-assurances that the workers were being treated well.

"It's not enough to say that. At best that's naive and at worst that's negligent.""

**************************************

The BBC has another report here.

FlyDubai announces launch plans

6 April 2009

The initial launch of Flydubai was announced today with the first flights on June 1st. And the first routes are a bit of a surprise.

Flydubai will start with flights to the Lebanese capital Beirut on 1 June and to Jordan’s capital Amman on 2 June, said company chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al-Maktoum, who is also Chairman of Emirates Airline, the Dubai Airport and the UAE's airline regulator.

“We are committed to bringing a new option to the market and to growing the region’s budget air travel business,” Sheikh Ahmed said at a press conference.
“This will benefit our economy, our people, and tourism business as a whole.”

Dubai first announced the establishment of flydubai in March 2008, with a start-up capital of 250 million dirhams ($67 million). It will operate new Boeing 737-800 aircraft on both the Beirut and Amman routes, Sheikh Ahmed said.

The new airline will be based at the modernised Terminal 2 at Dubai Airport.

FlyDubai will receive two aircraft in May with four more scheduled to be delivered by the end of the year.

The newspapers are saying that fares have not been published yet. Journalists can be so lazy. Go to the FlyDubai web site - fares to Amman and Beirut are initially AED250 one way including taxes but excluding extras. The return flight from Beirut is a more expensive US$100.

Online booking for the first two destinations is already available at www.flydubai.com. The airline will charge passengers separately for checked-in baggage weighing up to 32 kilograms, but hand luggage of up to 10kg (will they really weigh this?) will be included in the price of the ticket.

Like other budget airlines, food and drinks will be charged separately.

My guess; these were not the original launch destinations. But the India routes are performing so badly for Emirates at the moment that there has been a change of focus to bring more regional visitors and tourists into Dubai at cheaper fares. Both routes compete directly with FlyDubai's big brother, Emirates.

Initially the flights appear to be one a day to each destination with morning departures and an afternoon return. These 737s will not initially be working very hard and the schedules will need to keep these planes moving for some 16-18 hours a day.

Defining the next eight years

6 April 2009

The financial crisis will pass; they all do. There is a greater global dream and it could be that in just under eight years time, when Barack Obama retires to the speaker circuit, we will look back at two speeches in Strasbourg and Prague as defining one of the great achievements of his Presidency.

On Friday, in Strasbourg, he was rapturously applauded by French and German students when he said he wanted to rid the world of nuclear weapons. In Prague yesterday, he spelled out his hopes, outlining a host of means to that end and denouncing fatalism in the face of the nuclear threat as a "deadly adversary".

The world's estimated arsenal of 24,000 nuclear warheads - all but 1,000 in the US and Russian armouries - was the worst legacy of the cold war, Obama said. If the risk of all-out nuclear war had faded, the danger of nuclear attack had increased, he added.

The president pledged a drive on nuclear disarmament, possibly bigger than any ever attempted. He spelled out how he would accelerate arms control agreements with Russia, following his first summit meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev last week. The deal to conclude a new arms reduction treaty with Moscow, which would slash stockpiles by about a third was a beginning, setting the stage for further cuts.

Building on the momentum of a new agreement with the Russians, Obama said he wanted to cajole the other nuclear powers into agreeing international arms cuts.

This would include the British and French nuclear deterrents. They will both need some persuading.

"It is time for testing of nuclear weapons to be banned," Obama said. He called for a resuscitation of the 1996 comprehensive test ban treaty outlawing all nuclear tests. Obama's Democrat predecessor, Bill Clinton, signed the treaty, but then gave up on it after running into resistance from the Republican-controlled Senate which refused to ratify it a decade ago. George Bush, predictably, did not pursue the issue.

America is the most important country that has not ratified the treaty, although other nuclear countries such as China, Israel and Pakistan, as well as Iran have also declined to ratify.

Obama said he would pursue US ratification "immediately and aggressively".

As well as supporting the test ban treaty, Obama pledged to strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation treaty which dates from 1968 and is the cornerstone of the effort to try to curb the spread of nuclear weapons.

He specified two ways of reinforcing the NPT regime - banning the production of fissile material used for nuclear warheads and establishing an "international fuel bank" which would supply and keep tabs on low-enriched uranium for peaceful nuclear purposes in electricity generation for countries that need it.

This is aimed at keeping countries, such as Iran, from developing their own fuel enrichment programmes and at restricting the growth of nuclear knowhow.

Low-enriched uranium is used in power plants. High-enriched uranium is used for warheads. The material can be diverted for weapons use and once you have mastered the fuel cycle for power generation, it is relatively easy to produce bomb-grade material.

Obama also insisted on greater resources and authority for international inspections - and "real and immediate consequences" for countries that violate the treaty.

Over the past 15 years there have been various efforts, mainly by the US, to secure and store nuclear materials stemming from the collapse of the Soviet Union to offset the dangers of "loose nukes", nuclear contraband, and black market trading in radioactive materials.

Obama said he wanted to re-energise this campaign to get all "vulnerable" nuclear materials in secure storage within four years.

He also said he would convene a world summit on nuclear security in the US within a year. The agenda and participants for such a conference remain unclear.

But the spread of nuclear knowhow and technology had to be stopped, he said, since it would become increasingly easy to "buy, build or steal" a nuclear bomb. The risk of terrorists being able to obtain a nuclear device was "the most immediate and extreme threat to global security."

Obama also promised to rewrite American military and national security strategy to downgrade the centrality of nuclear weapons, reversing a tendency among some senior former military officials to argue in favour of an increased reliance on nuclear weapons and a commitment to embrace preemptive nuclear strikes as an option.

The president conceded the nuclear challenge was daunting, would be a long haul, and could fail. "This goal will not be reached quickly - perhaps not in my lifetime. It would take patience and persistence. But now we, too, must ignore the voices who tell us that the world cannot change." But he said it was time for a new, more robust international regime. "Rules must be binding, violations must be punished, words must mean something."

There should be loud cheers globally for this strategy and for committed leadership. Only the most fanatical hawks can see any benefit from nuclear weaponry.

2009 Skytrax awards

5 April 2009

The annual Skytrax awards were announced last weekend. These are among the more respected international awards:

After my last Air Asia experience if they are the best low-cost airline then the rest of them must be very average.

In inflight entertainment Emirates won from Singapore Air and Virgin Atlantic. It is an interesting award as there are far to many planes in Emirates fleet (most of the Airbus) that do not have AVOD and have old generation TV screens.

Not a US or European airline in site in the Airline of the Year awards.

EK 407 pilots resigned?

5 April 2009

Emirates Airline has confirmed that the two Emirates Airline pilots involved in an emergency landing at Melbourne Airport last month have resigned.

The National newspaper reports that "in announcing the resignations, Boutros Boutros, the airline’s senior vice president for media relations, said he did not know why the pilots had quit. He declined to give further details. “We do not like to talk about it because now the investigation is ongoing,” Mr Boutros said. “We have to wait for the investigation. I know that they resigned; that is all I can confirm.”

Hilarious stuff from Boutros Boutros; the rumour is that they resigned because they had no option but to sign the letters that were drafted for their signature and presented to them within hours of their return to Dubai some ten days ago.

It is disappointing that the crew were expected to resign before either the airline or the safety authorities in Australia have completed their investigations and published any report and recommendation.

The consensus in web discussions is that the pilots entered incorrect take off weights into the airliners flight management computer; errors that were not caught; suggesting that standard operating procedures were not followed or were not good enough to catch the error. But after making the initial error it appears that the crew did a fine job in recovering the situation and safely landing the plane.

The Emirates’ Airbus A340 was carrying 225 passengers on Flight EK407 from Melbourne to Dubai when it made an emergency landing about 30 minutes after take-off on March 21 at 10.30pm local time.

A statement from Emirates Airline said the aircraft’s “flight deck indication alerted the captain to the possibility of the tail contacting the runway on departure”.

The jet circled for half an hour to dump fuel before it returned safely to the airport in Melbourne. No one was injured.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau and Emirates Airline are investigating.

The airline said at the time of the incident that it had sent a flight safety and operations team to Melbourne to join engineers.

Mr Boutros said it usually took about two months for a report to come out for “this type of accident”. Investigators will look at flight data records, interview crew and company representatives and inspect the runway and aircraft.

Employees don't trust UAE companies

4 April 2009

It is hard to comment on this story and keep a strait face.

A new survey has revealed that Middle East firms struggle more than companies in other regions to cultivate trust among their employees.

The poll, involving 23,545 respondents from 331 organisations across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, found companies in this region scored just 49 out of 100 and 52 out of 100 for team trust and organisational trustworthiness.

These scores were the lowest marks in the FranklinCovey poll. Some respondents from 26 organisations in the Middle East were surveyed as part of the study.

“The results of this survey indicate that trust – and the absence of it – is an issue for companies in the Middle East,” said FranklinCovey’s Stephen MR Covey. “The ability to establish, grow, extend and restore internal trust is the key leadership competency for our challenging times.”

It is not a surprise; though it would be reasonable to ask - why?

New minimum taxi fare in Dubai

4 April 2009

A taxi ride in Dubai will now cost a minimum of AED10, it emerged on Friday.

The increase comes after drivers complained that short trips wasted their time and hindered their efforts to hit their daily minimum targets.  Surely it would have been easier in this economy to reduce the taxi driver targets.

Instead we are about to come into mid summer when walking 100 yards in the middle of the day can be life threatening.

Instead, while the starting fare will remain at AED4, transport chiefs have introduced the AED10 minimum fare with immediate effect.

Don't underestimate the red shirts' wrath

3 April 2009 - Bangkok Post

"For the past three months after a year of brinkmanship and turmoil, it seemed as if the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was finding its footing with its stimulus packages and restoration of confidence at home and abroad.

It overcame a no-confidence debate, and its mantra of moving Thailand forward found receptive ears among those who have grown weary of the prolonged political crisis.

As many had a vested interest in moving on and putting the crisis behind, it became convenient to downplay the resilience and potency of the red-shirted foot soldiers under the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD).

These UDD rank-and-file, mostly from the provinces, have been massing on Bangkok's streets to show that they will not be systematically denied and dismissed, that they believe in the righteousness of their cause and the force of history on their side.

To underestimate them, as their opponents are wont to do, is to intensify the ongoing polarisation and court a potentially cathartic transformation that may lead to unpredictable outcomes.

Led nominally by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has virtually been a cyber leader of the opposition from exile and a phantom menace to his sworn enemies, the red shirts are emboldened and more coherent this time around.

Their learning curve is steep, their stage speakers charismatic and effective. Their strategy to raise the stakes by presenting damning evidence and opening new battlefronts against Establishment figures, naming names and pointing to misdeeds that produced the military coup in 2006 and its aftermath.

They have sowed doubt and dissension among the ranks of the police, the military, the public, even in the People's Alliance of Democracy (PAD), the UDD's arch-nemesis.

Their substance and tone are folksy and provincial, peppered by country music and rural metaphors and symbols. Technology and new media tools enable them to disseminate and spread.

The most daunting challenge of the UDD red shirts is staying power. Their numbers have not swelled to the six-digit range as pledged.

From the lower rungs of the socio-economic strata, their followers often have to be bussed in and fed throughout, some paid for lost opportunity. Their financial coffers may be shallow, constraining their movement's longevity.

But their messages about Thailand's myriad social injustices have resonated more than their opponents are willing to admit.

For the countless fence-sitters in this high-stakes face-off who think and feel that something is just not right about Thailand over the past three years, the red shirts' platform is the singular venue to express grievances and demonstrate disenchantments.

For Thaksin, of course, this new ball game, which is not just about going after the Abhisit government but also isolating and castigating key privy councillors while elevating the King, is a familiar self-serving megalomania.

Still a masterful populist and demagogue in his phone-ins and video links, Thaksin is pushing different buttons and taking the offensives on multiple fronts in an effort to regain his lost wealth and power.

He appears to be posturing for a deal. His long shadow over the UDD undermines the movement's credibility and middle-class appeal.

While Thaksin pitches himself as the saviour on a white horse in these dire economic times, he is increasingly portrayed by the red shirts as a symbol and source of inspiration.

The UDD stage leaders have increasingly drawn a distinction between the reds and Thaksin. To them, this is all about the restoration of the majority's will under democratic rule. He needs them completely but they need him decreasingly as their movement solidifies and entrenches. Emerging from Thaksin's tentacles is yet another major challenge for the red shirts.

The UDD's more practical obstacle is how to achieve their concrete but convoluted aims that range from the removal of Mr Abhisit's coalition government and new elections to the resignation of seemingly compromised privy councillors and the re-introduction of the 1997 charter purely through mere street protests.

Large public protests on their own have created necessary but not sufficient conditions to overthrow sitting governments in the past. The catalyst would have to come from somewhere. Herein lies the reds' dilemma.

Without the Establishment backing that was seen behind the PAD last year, the UDD red shirts can hardly effect the changes to the status quo so long as the authorities remain restrained and patient in their response.

Inaction and calculated passivity from the powers-that-be may well stymie the red shirts' intensity and potency. This means their D-Day, slated for April 8, may come to naught. This is why they keep attacking Establishment figures in provocation, with vengeance, backed up by substantive revelations and crucial testimonies.

At issue is how long these Establishment figures, who are compelled to answer for being evidently both above and within Thai politics, can bear the heat.

It would be easy but mistaken to marginalise the red shirts as mere Thaksin lackeys, manipulated and uninformed. Their needs and grievances are real. Lumping them with Thaksin's self-aggrandisement and dismissing them as an unsustainable nuisance will further galvanise them, inflaming their discontent. The gravest danger to Thaksin's opponents is the growing distance between the red shirts and the fugitive former premier. Dialogue, recognition and workable accommodation are in order.

If the red shirts' disaffection is left to fester further, their increasingly organic movement may grow into its own, fed by insults and fanned by suppression, to pose a challenge to the Establishment in proportions previously unseen."

The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

Off to meet the Queen

2 April 2009

EK 407 update

1 April 2009

I will try and keep up to date with this story; but it is hard to do as there is no coverage at all in the UAE newspapers; The first part of this update is a rumour - unconfirmed about the extent of the damage to the airplane. I suspect it is accurate and that the repair costs are serious. Remember this is only a four year old airplane.

The latest update from Melbourne is that the evaluation work on the repair has just finished. The rear pressure bulkhead is apparently cracked. The aircraft has been moved into the Old Ansett Air hanger at a cost of $28,000 per night! there is a rumour that an insurance write off is now being considered as the cost of repair and the requirement to get the aircraft to Airbus at Toulouse (unpressurised at 10,000ft ) to carry out the repair work is going to cost a fortune. At least 3 months out of service is estimated for repair work to be completed.

In the meantime the operating pilots flying the Emirates Airbus A340-500 that suffered a severe tailstrike at Melbourne on 20 March have apparently left the airline. They had returned to Dubai on 25 March.

FlightGlobal reports that a spokesman for the carrier says: "I can confirm that they have resigned." He declined to give any further explanation.

Comments in Kieran Daly's blog from FlightGlobal are very telling:

"Three days before the loss of the Fedex Boeing MD-11 at Tokyo on 23 March, there was very nearly a much worse disaster. The cause is unknown (publicly anyway - though as you'll see, it's probably pretty well established in fact) but I'll predict now that the lessons from it will be more significant than those of the MD-11 loss - tragic though that was.

At Melbourne an Emirates A340-500 suffered at least one tailstrike on take-off and finally lifted off either at the very end of the runway, or possibly beyond, taking out at least one antenna. That's a 12,000ft runway by the way.

What's now happened is that the Emirates pilots have, and I quote, "resigned". That's what Emirates told me in this full and informative statement: "I can confirm that they have resigned." The terminology is being openly laughed at by other Emirates pilots. "Resigned" apparently being a transitive verb in Dubai.

But it's all quite odd. The generally open and proactive Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) was uncharacteristically reticent about what happened - although it has published these details. And there's no statement at all from anyone about the cause, or even a factual account of what happened.

But clearly Emirates has decided that it does know the cause and so the guys involved are out of a job. I wonder what they did? Because if they got their weights and/or V-speeds wrong then they're only the latest of many victims of a definite problem in the industry.

But maybe it was something else.

A couple of final points. I've got it on reliable authority that the engines (Rolls-Royce Trent 500s) are not in the frame - despite passenger coments that they saw sparks or flames. (I'm guessing from the antenna impact, since I don't think tailstrike sparks could be seen from the cabin - although I guess that's not been tested.)

And second, I believe that the cause can't be the same as the one that resulted in this extraordinarily, but probably only superficially, similar Emirates A340-300 near-loss, because I think there's since been a fix that would make the error in that case unrepeatable. Open to being corrected on that.

Leave a comment if you've got views on this, or if you actually know what did happen at Melbourne."

Ek announces service to Angola

1 April 2009

This is not an April Fool although there are many people who will be asking where is Luanda!?

But this announcement caught me by surprise! Emirates is launching 3 weekly service on the Dubai - Luanda service from 04AUG09. Service to the Angolan capital is operated by A330-200.

EK791 DXB1050 - 1550LAD 332 247
EK792 LAD1800 - 0500+1DXB 332 247.

Makes more sense as you read more - Angola has significant links to both Houston in the USA and to Brazil. Delta is starting a flight from Houston in the summer.
Since the end of the 1975 to 2002 civil war Angola has been undergoing a massive national reconstruction. It is forecast to be one the world's fastest growing economies.

For crew on a two or three day layover here is what to do:
Drive down the beautiful bay.
Go to the Benfica market, which sells everything from perfume to ivory to animal skins and tourist guidebooks.
Take the boat out to Mussulo, the best beach in town.
Visit the Kissama Game Park, a beautiful and enormous national game park just 2 hours south of Luanda recently restocked.
Contact Eco Tur who run safaris there in specialist game viewing vehicles www.eco-tur.com

Portugese is widely spoken. English is not.
 

BTS goes convertible

1 April 2009

In a new drive to increase tourist numbers a new BTS service was launched this morning.

As a result of a secret but highly successful joint venture partnership between BTS Skytrain and Dream World Co., Ltd - tourists can now embark on the new and fun convertible train service which offers a panoramic and obstacle free view over the Thai capital.

The modern and newly designed electrified train will transport Bangkok’s tourists and commuters in comfortable open-air cars.

Currently there are two routes in operation, the Sukhumvit Line and the Silom Line. They cover much of the central city and its many commercial, residential and tourist areas, with extensions planned to outlying areas. Depending on sunny weather the trains run daily between 6:00 am and 12:00 midnight with frequent service throughout the day, increased during rush hours.

Enjoy!

EK offers unpaid leave to crew

1 April 2009 - this is not an April Fool story!

Emirates Airline has offered its cabin crew staff voluntary unpaid leave amidst rumours of a huge drop in profits.

The leave is being offered to all Emirates’ cabin crew staff for a minimum of one month, up to a maximum of six months, starting from May 2009.

An Emirates spokesperson, said: "After a careful review of our operational requirements, we have decided to offer our cabin crew staff the opportunity to apply for unpaid leave on a purely voluntary basis, starting from May 2009."

The airline confirmed that unpaid leave would be granted to individuals depending on seniority and the aircraft type the crew was trained to operate on.

Emirates added that all its employees would continue to be eligible for various benefits including healthcare, paid accommodation and travel concessions.

The airline’s full-year financial results are yet to be released, but they are expected to show a huge fall in profit for 2008/2009.

The company’s half-yearly results showed an almost-90% drop in profits.

This comes just days after the International Air Transport Association (IATA) doubled its forecasted losses for global airlines this year to US $4.7 billion, from its previously projected $2.5 billion.

The airline said the decision had been taken due to "a sharp drop in cabin crew attrition". Which means that in this economy no one is leaving; because there are no other jobs to move to !

A G20 survival guide

31 March 2009

The G20 descends upon London on April Fool's Day. Somehow this feels appropriate. It is a hugely expensive meet and greet and rather bizarrely the draft communique has already been released through the Financial Times. So if we all know what is going to be said and we all know what has already been agreed why meet ?

Who are the G20?

Actually it is not 20: Gordon Brown has invited his fellow G20 members (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the US and whoever happens to hold the rotating EU presidency, currently the Czechs), plus Spain, the Netherlands, the respective chairs of the New Partnership for Africa's Development, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the African Union Commission, and the president of the EU Commission. As well as the heads of the UN, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

That makes 29.

The G20's regular meetings are for finance ministers and central bankers from what are described as "systemically important industrialised and developing economies."

Who is protesting?

Just about everyone ! The British Anarchist society is organizing a gathering of thousands in the Square Mile intending to "storm the banks." The London Class War plans a quartet of processions headed by one of the "Four Horsefolk of the Apocalypse" (meet in front of the Bank of England at 12 p.m.).

There are protests planned for the City, east London, the West End and at many embassies around the capital most of tomorrow and Thursday. First off will be four simultaneous marches, led by effigies of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse, which will leave Moorgate, Liverpool Street, Cannon Street and London Bridge stations at 11am, converging on the Bank of England. Take your pick from war, climate chaos, financial crimes and land enclosures. Meanwhile, 1,500 people plan to bring tents and erect a climate camp in the City outside the European Climate Exchange at Bishopsgate at lunchtime. On top of that, the Stop the War coalition will march from the US Embassy in Grosvenor Square to Trafalgar Square in the afternoon. On Thursday, the official day of the summit, protests will centre on the Excel centre in Canning Town where G20 Meltdown plans to visit the Excel Centre to bang on doors.

How did Spain get an invite?

Spain is not part of the G20. Nor is the Netherlands.  Well they both went to the Washington meeting; so they get to hang out in London as well. Actually Spain in the world's 8th largest national economy so probably should be there anyway.

How many Gs are there anyway?

Ping Golf Clubs have the G5 and the G10; but in the political world G means Group and there are lots of them. The G20 is meant to be a supercharged version of the G8 - which is the group of seven richest nations with an extra place set for Russia.

The G5 (which grew to be the G8) comprised Britain, France, Germany, Japan and America.  There is a UN based G77. But I guess the lower the number after the G the more important the group is. The most effective clubs have a few powerful members who can agree a joint policy fast. Some might argue that the most effective group would consist only of America and China. They call it the G2.
 
Who are the stars in the ancien regime?

There really is only one person on view. Pity you wont get to see him because of his huge army of travel companions. He even gets a private meeting with HRH the Queen and the corgis. Barack Obama.

The Europeans will try and steal a bit of the limelight. The French are threatening to walk out. Probably after eating Jamie Oliver's dinner. France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel form an unlikely alliance. But neither are ecstatic about the Brown/Obama stimulus plan. 

If oil was still at US$150 we may not be having a conference. If oil was still at US$150 the Russians would be far more influential than they are now. Mr Putin has significant domestic issues to address and is far less bellicose than he was.

Japan could be influential - if only because they have been in a recession for 10 years so know how to deal with it !

Who are the rising stars?

The future. Brazil. A huge emerging economy, and, in President Lula, a hugely confident leader.

China, which is either the next superpower of the 21st century or an undemocratic disaster waiting to happen. China is the world's banker, and the US economy in particular is basically running on Chinese-financed debt.

South Korea, a vibrant Asian economy but with North Korean missiles looming as a large threat.

Turkey, potentially one of the great coming powers and at the crossroads of east and west and christian and muslim.

And dont forget Saudi Arabia. The petro-dollars still finance huge sovereign wealth funds that can salvage and change control of many existing assets.

Who is irrelevant?

Argentina: no need for any more discussion of the Falklands.

Australia: Kevin Rudd should be good for a tinnie later in the evening and a quick waltz through Soho. The good news is that no one would recognise him.

Canada: nice, but irrelevant.

India: another vast emerging economy, but one that somehow never quite fulfils its promise; too many problems; an octogenarian leadership and an election soon.

Mexico: too many (drug) problems at home.

The Netherlands: good football team but no one will want  to go Dutch on the cost of this bail out.

South Africa: potentially important, but the jury's still out on where it's heading.

Spain: fell out with Bush after pulling troops out of Iraq, and now with Obama after announcing withdrawal from Kosovo too.

ASEAN - nice Khun Abhisit will sit meekly to one side taking notes and telling everyone about his school days in England.

That is a long list !!

What we really want to know? How much kit and personnel is the US president bringing?

The US President arrives on Air Force One and will travel around in Marine One and the Beast - his armour plated car which does eight miles to the gallon and is described as "a panic room on wheels". It is equipped with shotguns, tear gas, a night-vision camera and bags of Obama's blood (group AB).

Among the 500 or so US personnel who will travel with the president are nurses and surgeons. They dont all get in the same car. Other staff include security agents and Obama's personal aide Reggie Love, who will hand the president his (ideally bomb-free) basketball each morning so he can shoot hoops.

Obama will be staying at Winfield House, the official residence of the US Ambassador to the Court of St James's. Hidden behind 15ft iron gates, with a garden second only in size to that of Buckingham Palace, the house itself is a real slice of Americana in London. The house was built for the American society heiress Barbara Hutton, who had inherited about $40m from her grandfather, Frank Winfield Woolworth. Yes, the Woolworth of one-time high-street fame. After Hutton left when war broke out in 1939, the house served as an RAF recruiting station. She then sold it for a dollar to the US government at the end of the war.

What about the food?

Tomorrow night, Gordon Brown's guests are expected to eat a modest British dinner. The six courses that Jamie Oliver has devised apparently comprise "honest high-street products", and avoid costly "fancy" ingredients. Pork will not be served.

The seating plan for Wednesday night's Downing Street dinner for delegation leaders is set by No 10 Downing Street. Meanwhile finance ministers and central bankers are going to a dinner, hosted by Alistair Darling, at Tate Modern.

Protocol says the host and heads of state (as opposed to mere heads of government) should be seated towards the centre and out on the end is generally punishment for something (where Gordon Brown was placed by his Japanese hosts at a G8 dinner last summer - he will not have forgotten this).

Everyone might like to be beside Obama, but who has to sit next to Silvio Berlusconi?

And who sits and stands where for the official picture. It is amazing that they have time to talk about anything !
 
What about the Gifts.

What is a good meeting without something to takeaway. After all Gordon Brown got those nice DVDs from President Obama. This goodie bag will showcase "British creativity". So there wont be much in that then. Maybe a Nigella Lawson cook book !

There will be a tie (not primark?) a tea towel, some candles, and some Rococo chocolates (sounds Italian). They dont all wear ties??

And who are the WAGs ?

It will be the Michelle Obama Show. Simple as that.

Mrs Sarkozy (Carla Brun) made a last minute diplomatic withdrawal as the French would consider it a mortal sin if the two first ladies were to meet for their style battle on British soil.

Others will melt into the background; Liu Yongqing, wife of Chinese president Hu Jintao has barely said a word in public. The Russian president's wife, Svetlana Medvedev, is just as publicity shy. I did not even know that PM Abhisit was married so guess his wife will be in the background as well. Sadly there will be no male wags present.

Outside money is on Sonsoles Espinosa, opera singer and wife of Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero as being the new head turner. She has even been photographed next to Penelope Cruz and held her ground.

How much does this cost?

According to Foreign Office estimates, the summit will cost the government about £20m. This includes the hiring of the ExCeL London conference centre, event security and policing. This sounds cheap as the 2008 G8 summit in Japan cost an astonishing US$285m. Why did a meeting of eight countries cost nearly 10 times more than one of 20 or is someone being economical with the truth !

And who will head to the pub at the end of the day?

Kevin Rudd apologised to his wife a couple of years ago for going to a New York strip club after a heavy drinking session. He admitted to her that he'd been "a bit of a goose." Maybe a night out with Jacqui Smith's husband can be arranged.

Where

The ExCel London conference centre is in the new Docklands development in Canning Town. Among the centre's claims to fame in 2007, ExCel hosted the Star Wars Celebration Europe; the first Star Wars fan event of its kind outside the United States, between 13-15 July 2007.

And if you are not bored with the whole thing already:

The official G20 web site