A G20 survival guide

31 March 2009

The G20 descends upon London on April Fool's Day. Somehow this feels appropriate. It is a hugely expensive meet and greet and rather bizarrely the draft communique has already been released through the Financial Times. So if we all know what is going to be said and we all know what has already been agreed why meet ?

Who are the G20?

Actually it is not 20: Gordon Brown has invited his fellow G20 members (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the US and whoever happens to hold the rotating EU presidency, currently the Czechs), plus Spain, the Netherlands, the respective chairs of the New Partnership for Africa's Development, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the African Union Commission, and the president of the EU Commission. As well as the heads of the UN, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

That makes 29.

The G20's regular meetings are for finance ministers and central bankers from what are described as "systemically important industrialised and developing economies."

Who is protesting?

Just about everyone ! The British Anarchist society is organizing a gathering of thousands in the Square Mile intending to "storm the banks." The London Class War plans a quartet of processions headed by one of the "Four Horsefolk of the Apocalypse" (meet in front of the Bank of England at 12 p.m.).

There are protests planned for the City, east London, the West End and at many embassies around the capital most of tomorrow and Thursday. First off will be four simultaneous marches, led by effigies of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse, which will leave Moorgate, Liverpool Street, Cannon Street and London Bridge stations at 11am, converging on the Bank of England. Take your pick from war, climate chaos, financial crimes and land enclosures. Meanwhile, 1,500 people plan to bring tents and erect a climate camp in the City outside the European Climate Exchange at Bishopsgate at lunchtime. On top of that, the Stop the War coalition will march from the US Embassy in Grosvenor Square to Trafalgar Square in the afternoon. On Thursday, the official day of the summit, protests will centre on the Excel centre in Canning Town where G20 Meltdown plans to visit the Excel Centre to bang on doors.

How did Spain get an invite?

Spain is not part of the G20. Nor is the Netherlands.  Well they both went to the Washington meeting; so they get to hang out in London as well. Actually Spain in the world's 8th largest national economy so probably should be there anyway.

How many Gs are there anyway?

Ping Golf Clubs have the G5 and the G10; but in the political world G means Group and there are lots of them. The G20 is meant to be a supercharged version of the G8 - which is the group of seven richest nations with an extra place set for Russia.

The G5 (which grew to be the G8) comprised Britain, France, Germany, Japan and America.  There is a UN based G77. But I guess the lower the number after the G the more important the group is. The most effective clubs have a few powerful members who can agree a joint policy fast. Some might argue that the most effective group would consist only of America and China. They call it the G2.
 
Who are the stars in the ancien regime?

There really is only one person on view. Pity you wont get to see him because of his huge army of travel companions. He even gets a private meeting with HRH the Queen and the corgis. Barack Obama.

The Europeans will try and steal a bit of the limelight. The French are threatening to walk out. Probably after eating Jamie Oliver's dinner. France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel form an unlikely alliance. But neither are ecstatic about the Brown/Obama stimulus plan. 

If oil was still at US$150 we may not be having a conference. If oil was still at US$150 the Russians would be far more influential than they are now. Mr Putin has significant domestic issues to address and is far less bellicose than he was.

Japan could be influential - if only because they have been in a recession for 10 years so know how to deal with it !

Who are the rising stars?

The future. Brazil. A huge emerging economy, and, in President Lula, a hugely confident leader.

China, which is either the next superpower of the 21st century or an undemocratic disaster waiting to happen. China is the world's banker, and the US economy in particular is basically running on Chinese-financed debt.

South Korea, a vibrant Asian economy but with North Korean missiles looming as a large threat.

Turkey, potentially one of the great coming powers and at the crossroads of east and west and christian and muslim.

And dont forget Saudi Arabia. The petro-dollars still finance huge sovereign wealth funds that can salvage and change control of many existing assets.

Who is irrelevant?

Argentina: no need for any more discussion of the Falklands.

Australia: Kevin Rudd should be good for a tinnie later in the evening and a quick waltz through Soho. The good news is that no one would recognise him.

Canada: nice, but irrelevant.

India: another vast emerging economy, but one that somehow never quite fulfils its promise; too many problems; an octogenarian leadership and an election soon.

Mexico: too many (drug) problems at home.

The Netherlands: good football team but no one will want  to go Dutch on the cost of this bail out.

South Africa: potentially important, but the jury's still out on where it's heading.

Spain: fell out with Bush after pulling troops out of Iraq, and now with Obama after announcing withdrawal from Kosovo too.

ASEAN - nice Khun Abhisit will sit meekly to one side taking notes and telling everyone about his school days in England.

That is a long list !!

What we really want to know? How much kit and personnel is the US president bringing?

The US President arrives on Air Force One and will travel around in Marine One and the Beast - his armour plated car which does eight miles to the gallon and is described as "a panic room on wheels". It is equipped with shotguns, tear gas, a night-vision camera and bags of Obama's blood (group AB).

Among the 500 or so US personnel who will travel with the president are nurses and surgeons. They dont all get in the same car. Other staff include security agents and Obama's personal aide Reggie Love, who will hand the president his (ideally bomb-free) basketball each morning so he can shoot hoops.

Obama will be staying at Winfield House, the official residence of the US Ambassador to the Court of St James's. Hidden behind 15ft iron gates, with a garden second only in size to that of Buckingham Palace, the house itself is a real slice of Americana in London. The house was built for the American society heiress Barbara Hutton, who had inherited about $40m from her grandfather, Frank Winfield Woolworth. Yes, the Woolworth of one-time high-street fame. After Hutton left when war broke out in 1939, the house served as an RAF recruiting station. She then sold it for a dollar to the US government at the end of the war.

What about the food?

Tomorrow night, Gordon Brown's guests are expected to eat a modest British dinner. The six courses that Jamie Oliver has devised apparently comprise "honest high-street products", and avoid costly "fancy" ingredients. Pork will not be served.

The seating plan for Wednesday night's Downing Street dinner for delegation leaders is set by No 10 Downing Street. Meanwhile finance ministers and central bankers are going to a dinner, hosted by Alistair Darling, at Tate Modern.

Protocol says the host and heads of state (as opposed to mere heads of government) should be seated towards the centre and out on the end is generally punishment for something (where Gordon Brown was placed by his Japanese hosts at a G8 dinner last summer - he will not have forgotten this).

Everyone might like to be beside Obama, but who has to sit next to Silvio Berlusconi?

And who sits and stands where for the official picture. It is amazing that they have time to talk about anything !
 
What about the Gifts.

What is a good meeting without something to takeaway. After all Gordon Brown got those nice DVDs from President Obama. This goodie bag will showcase "British creativity". So there wont be much in that then. Maybe a Nigella Lawson cook book !

There will be a tie (not primark?) a tea towel, some candles, and some Rococo chocolates (sounds Italian). They dont all wear ties??

And who are the WAGs ?

It will be the Michelle Obama Show. Simple as that.

Mrs Sarkozy (Carla Brun) made a last minute diplomatic withdrawal as the French would consider it a mortal sin if the two first ladies were to meet for their style battle on British soil.

Others will melt into the background; Liu Yongqing, wife of Chinese president Hu Jintao has barely said a word in public. The Russian president's wife, Svetlana Medvedev, is just as publicity shy. I did not even know that PM Abhisit was married so guess his wife will be in the background as well. Sadly there will be no male wags present.

Outside money is on Sonsoles Espinosa, opera singer and wife of Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero as being the new head turner. She has even been photographed next to Penelope Cruz and held her ground.

How much does this cost?

According to Foreign Office estimates, the summit will cost the government about £20m. This includes the hiring of the ExCeL London conference centre, event security and policing. This sounds cheap as the 2008 G8 summit in Japan cost an astonishing US$285m. Why did a meeting of eight countries cost nearly 10 times more than one of 20 or is someone being economical with the truth !

And who will head to the pub at the end of the day?

Kevin Rudd apologised to his wife a couple of years ago for going to a New York strip club after a heavy drinking session. He admitted to her that he'd been "a bit of a goose." Maybe a night out with Jacqui Smith's husband can be arranged.

Where

The ExCel London conference centre is in the new Docklands development in Canning Town. Among the centre's claims to fame in 2007, ExCel hosted the Star Wars Celebration Europe; the first Star Wars fan event of its kind outside the United States, between 13-15 July 2007.

And if you are not bored with the whole thing already:

The official G20 web site

More gloom forecast for Dubai

30 March 2009

Dubai’s population was predicted today to fall by 17 percent in 2009.

The latest report from investment bank EFG-Hermes states that many expatriates will be leaving Dubai during 2009. “We forecast negative net population growth in Dubai in 2009 with the population declining to 1.49 million from 1.79 million in 2008 (17 percent decline).”

The report attributes the fall to a 30 percent drop in the number of construction workers and all real-estate related and financial services sectors.

“Summer 2009 should be a key period as we believe there are a number of professionals who have lost jobs in the beginning of the year but who are staying on until the summer in order to allow their children to complete the school year,” it adds.

The report also says that rents and property prices in Dubai will fall sharply in 2009.

As for property EFD-Hermes says that Dubai residential property prices, down 34 percent from their peak last year, are likely to fall a further 20 percent amid a decline in the emirate’s population.

“Supply will far outstrip demand as the overall population declines,” analysts Sana Kapadia and Jad Abbas said in the report. “Minimal immigration is expected, especially due to the sharp contraction in the real estate and financial sector.”

The forecast comes as a squeeze in global credit markets last year slowed development in the emirate, home to the world’s tallest building, most expensive hotel suite and largest manmade islands. Dubai property prices are expected to “stabilize” in the first half of 2010 and may start rising by the second half or early 2011, EFG-Hermes said.
 

Expats return as media oasis in the desert dries up

30 March 2009 - from The Observor

"The United Arab Emirates has become a magnet for British journalists in recent years as domestic media companies launched a raft of new titles, creating an oasis of opportunity for ambitious reporters in the desert. They were joined by foreign media groups, including Daily Mail owner DMGT, which paid £3.9m for 60% of the company that produces free Dubai newspaper 7Days in 2006. The modern-day gold rush that fuelled the rapid growth of the country's media sector now seems to be over, however, and many ex-pats who travelled to Abu Dhabi or Dubai in search of a life in the sun funded by tax-free salaries are now returning home.

The gulf state is suffering as a result of the global economic recession and Dubai, which enjoyed a six year property boom that has only just ended, has been particularly badly hit. Earlier this month the city was effectively bailed out by Abu Dhabi, one of the six city states that make up the UAE, a lose confederacy of allied states. That was regarded as a blow to the city's pride, and its image as a go-getting business centre and one of the frontier towns of the new, globalised, world.

Publishers have been affected by the economic malaise, and many are now implementing radical cost-cutting plans, just as their counterparts are doing in the west.

Last week, ITP, chaired by former Sunday Times editor Andrew Neil, made around 60 staff redundant, and in the drinking holes of Dubai, where the company is based, the mood amongst many ex-pats has turned sour.

ITP publishes more than 70 business and consumer titles, including local editions of fashion monthly Harpers Bazaar and listing magazine Time Out, but writing in Arabian business, which ITP also owns, the company's editorial director Rob Corder announced the closure of nine of them, including Viva Girl and Arabian Property.

Other titles, including The National, Abu Dhabi's daily English-language paper edited by former Daily Telegraph boss Martin Newland, also look vulnerable. Media executives point out that the Dubai economy is heavily reliant on property advertising, which used to account for up to 40% of the total spent on advertising each year, a far higher proportion than other emerging markets. But property values have fallen dramatically in recent months. Real estate prices, which had almost doubled since the start of the century, have dropped by a third this year in some parts of Dubai.

Earlier this month, leading credit agencies said they were considering downgrading their ratings on six of Dubai's most prominent state-owned companies, citing the deteriorating economic outlook. Luxury cars are selling for 40 percent less than the asking price, dealers say, and local newspaper have reported that Dubai is cancelling 1,500 work visas every day, although the authorities will not confirm this. In the city, which has emerged as a major financial centre in recent years, work on virtually every major building project, aside from the Burj Dubai, which will be the world's largest building when it is completed later this year, has come to a standstill. Many of the foreign workers - there are well over 1m Indian labourers in the UAE - who flocked to the middle east in search of higher salaries to send back to their families at home now find themselves idle and there are far fewer cranes littering the skylines of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

The expensive new metro system financed by the Dubai authorities is still under construction, but the congestion it was designed to alleviate is no longer the problem it used to be. The early morning rush hour, which brought traffic to a standstill until recently, has all but disappeared, and taxi drivers complain they are making a quarter of what they used to earn from fares. The confidence that was once the hallmark of the City has evaporated and many of the ex-pats who headed to the region in search of highly-paid tax-free jobs are now worried that they will be laid off.

The stakes are particularly high because employers issue visas to foreign workers, and they must leave the UAE within three months if they are made redundant, unless they find another job. Many recent arrivals have run up large debts as they spent heavily to build a new life in the middle east, putting down large deposits on rented properties and buying cars - driving is essential in a place where public transport is virtually nonexistent. Under UAE law, anyone who leaves the country with unpaid debts is effectively absconding, but Dubai airport is full of abandoned cars left behind by workers fleeing back home.

Other ex-pats are stuck in the country with no jobs and, in some cases, nowhere to live. An anonymous British citizen wrote to 7Days last week saying he was living in his car and fearful of arrest, and claimed he was under surveillance by the local police. Speaking about the fear of losing her job, one British journalist currently in Dubai said: "It's not losing a job, it feels like losing your whole life, and we are all aware there are very few jobs to go back to in the UK."

Some projects, including Newland's The National, launched by the Abu Dhabi Media Group last year, simply won't be allowed to fail, however, according to leading media executives. It is bankrolled by the cash-rich Abu Dhabi authorities, who recently acquired a stake in Barclays bank, and the salaries paid to staff reflect the prestige of the project - Newland is on £300,000 a year tax-free, according to internal documents that were leaked recently.

The paper is regarded as a symbol of Abu Dhabi's renaissance and its attempt to become a major player on the world stage. It has been engaged in a long battle for ascendancy with Dubai, which has attracted more foreign investment than its rival 120km to the west in recent years. "It would be to embarrassing to let the National slide", says one competitor.

Newland has endured some awkward moments, however, as he attempts to import a robust western reporting culture to a region whose rulers are yet to shed their authoritarian instincts.

A new draft media law would make it a crime to damage the country's reputation or economy, punishable by fines of up to 1 million dirhams (about $272,000) and some observers say it is already having a chilling effect on reporting the financial crisis.

Every editor tussles with governments and powerful special interests, but the fact that the National is partly state-owned, means Newland has fought more battles than most. A report carried by the paper last year, which erroneously stated that the Dubai property market had fallen by 7% (it should have said the rate of growth had fallen by 7%) was the sort of mistake that creeps into many papers on a regular basis, but the political fallout for the gaffe was immense.

It exacerbated tensions between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, which has looked on enviously in recent years as Dubai's economy grew rapidly, boosted by a growing tourism industry and foreign investment. The incident highlighted the mutual suspicions which exists between the UAE's two most powerful cities and how easily the delicate diplomatic balance that ensure they remain allies can be disturbed.

The Abu Dhabi Media Company (ADMC) is now the most powerful news organisation in the region, outstripping its rivals in Dubai. It now owns three newspapers and four radio stations. It recently launched a £1bn film fund and is about to unveil a new TV station.

Its privately backed rivals are less well placed to ride out the downturn. In Dubai, according to one media executive, every media and publishing company has either made people redundant or introduced recruitment freezes.

Employees at some groups have not been paid for several months, and many have received salaries by cheque rather than cash. Even western-owned titles, which are financially secure admit the commercial environment is challenging.

Steve Auckland, the DMGT executive who runs its stable of free titles, including Metro and London Lite in the UK, says 7 Days has been hit badly by the advertising recession. "It is pretty gloomy", he concedes. "We've been affected, mainly through property advertising. We are not as bad as most because we don't have as much as some of the semi-state owned titles, which were wall to wall property ads, but it is pretty tough going."

A rival says: "It is certainly true the property market has gone down dramatically. It accounts for around 40% of total advertising spend out here. It's hit everything - especially outdoor advertising, but also publishing."

The pessimism can be overdone, however, according to some observers. Auckland points out that the decision by the Abu Dhabi authorities to bail out Dubai by buying around $10bn of the city's debts make a rapid economic recovery more likely. He says that could even take place by the end of the year. Others point out that journalists are still arriving in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The Daily Telegraph has recently appointed a Dubai correspondent and Sky News is about to open a bureau in the city. But even the most optimistic foreign workers say that, for the moment at least (to quote a senior media executive living in Dubai), "the days of former Fleet Street editors being offered huge salaries to relocate are well behind us. if this had happened three years ago I would not have come out here. It's too risky."

The National
Former Daily Telegraph editor Martin Newland was one of the most high-profile British journalists to join the exodus of talent to the UAE, taking many former colleagues with him. Appointed editor of the British daily in 2003 by its former proprietor Conrad Black, he left in 2005 following its acquisition by the Barclay brothers, but soon found a high-profile posting overseas. The Observer revealed in July 2007 that Newland had been approached to launch the National, which has established a reputation for reporting stories other papers might be reluctant to print, despite the fact that its owner, the Abu Dhabi Media Company, is backed by the emirate's sovereign wealth fund.

The company was established by Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ruler of the emirate and is also backed by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Abu Dhabi wants to transform itself into a media hub as the oil-rich city state tries to diversify its economy and reduce its dependency on oil. It has built an expensive media city designed to attract overseas film, print and TV companies, although it remains half empty as the recession continues to bite. The National launched a Saturday edition at the end of last year, making it a seven-day operation"

Thai Government to chase Thaksin in Dubai

30 March 2009

Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said yesterday he would fully exercise his authority by all means to bring fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to justice in Thailand.

Apparently a group of Thai officials will be sent to Dubai next week to inform officials about the Thai government's concern, as Thaksin regularly used the Gulf state as a base to phone-in and provoke his red- shirted supporters, Kasit said.

In addition he said taht representatives of the Attorney-General's Office were talking with their counterparts in Hong Kong to conclude an extradition treaty, enabling the government to detain Thaksin if he appeared in the territory, he said.

"I speak frankly, this is a struggle between two ideologies. We want democracy, monarchy and constitution but they [Thaksin's group] don't," Kasit told a meeting of the ruling Democrat Party.

Strangely I think Khun Kasit will find that the red shirts argue that they want exactly the same thing; but that democracy means a government elected by the people. If Kasit really believes in Thai democracy then the Democrats should go to the polls now.

"It is not a normal power struggle; it means the future of the institution [monarchy], which has lived with us for hundreds of years," Kasit told the party's members. "It is a great danger. It's time for us to fight. Let's ask ourselves what we want to see [happen]. I'm ready for the fighting," the minister said.

The Foreign Ministry has instructed all its embassies around the globe to feed correct information about the monarchy and the government's policy to the international community, he said.

That's interesting too - one person's correct information is the next person's propaganda.
 

Economic Woes Complicate Thailand's Politics
By JAMES HOOKWAY - Wall Street Journal

29 March 2009

"Tens of thousands of antigovernment protesters sang and danced through the weekend outside Thailand's main government complex, cheering on ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and offering Thailand's new leaders -- and the rest of Asia -- a jarring reminder of the political risks accompanying the region's sharp economic decline.

Local businesswoman Darunee Kritboonyalai, a founding shareholder of a Thai iced-tea brand and an active supporter of Mr. Thaksin, said the protests against Thailand's government could grow as the economy worsens. "We're just part of a global situation, true. But this government doesn't know how to handle it properly," she said.

The protesters are mainly seeking to restore Mr. Thaksin -- a multimillionaire businessman who was removed from office in a military coup three years ago -- back to power. But they are also disenchanted with the way Thailand's current government is managing the country's economic downturn, and are hoping to fuel wider discontent.

Many of the 30,000-strong crowd mocked the government's latest stimulus efforts as, at best, an imitation of the policies which Mr. Thaksin championed before he was ousted in 2006. Some protesters handed 2,000 baht ($56) cash handouts from the government to rally organizers instead of spending them in Bangkok's stores as the government intended. One elderly woman, Ananya Mhanpadungkit, climbed onto a makeshift stage to say she couldn't accept money from what she described as an "illegitimate" government while protest leaders said they would continue their nighttime rallies indefinitely.

Thailand's lingering conflict between Mr. Thaksin's populist supporters and its more conservative, military-backed government shows how the world's economic slump is complicating a series of political battles across Southeast Asia. The region is especially dependent on trade, providing electronic components, raw materials and skilled labor for the global supply chain, and several countries are showing the strain.

Political analysts say Malaysia is showing signs of slipping back into the authoritarian ways of its past, with the government cracking down on pro-democracy advocates and suspending opposition newspapers as Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak prepares to take over as premier in early April. In the Philippines, opposition is building to pro-government legislators' efforts to change the country's constitution, which would potentially pave the way for President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to stay in power once term limits kick in next year.

Thailand is facing perhaps the most combustible conflict. The country's economy was already slowing when current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva took power last year following the collapse of the previous, pro-Thaksin government amid a series of military-backed street protests. Yellow-clad protesters hoping to purge Thailand of Mr. Thaksin's influence seized Bangkok's international airport for several days last November, stranding hundreds of thousands of travelers and dealing a severe blow to Thailand's international reputation and vibrant tourism industry. The chaos was only brought to an end when Thailand's Constitutional Court banned the main pro-Thaksin party for alleged vote-buying.

With Thai officials now forecasting that the economy could shrink by up to 3% this year, compared with 2.6% growth in 2008 and 4.9% growth in 2007, the British-born Mr. Abhisit put together a stimulus plan worth up to $44 billion to be spent on infrastructure and other projects over the next three years.

A key plank of the plan is a direct cash handout of 2,000 baht to anybody earning $423 or less a month to help support consumer spending. Some economists say the measure will likely have some positive impact. Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said the $536 million in cash handouts would create about 80,000 jobs and add 0.2 percentage points to Thailand's gross domestic product this year.

Local businesses are competing fiercely for a share of the government cash by offering special deals for anybody spending their 2,000 baht at their stores. Supermarkets have prepared special hampers filled with 2,200 baht-worth of goodies which can be exchanged for the government-issued checks. A chain of lingerie stores, Ann & Bra, is offering 3,000 baht-worth of underwear for each 2,000 baht check. "It's too good an opportunity to miss," said 27-year-old Anoma Trakanjun, a sales assistant at one of the outlets.

Still, some observers are concerned by the largesse. The United Nations' Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific warned on Thursday that Thailand could be storing up trouble for the future by spending too much now. "Fiscal resources are limited and today's increase in budget deficits will eventually need to be cut," the UN agency said.

At the same time, Mr. Thaksin's followers, mostly comprised of lower-income Thais, are growing more organized. This weekend's protests showed they are now capable of replicating the kind of mass demonstrations which Mr. Thaksin's opponents have staged over the last few years. While many demonstrators held up portraits of Mr. Thaksin, others displayed signs trying to associate the current protests with Thailand's pro-democracy movements of the past, in 1973 and 1992, when civilian protesters rose up against military-backed governments.

Mr. Thaksin, who is living in self-exile to avoid a corruption conviction which he says was politically motivated, used a video broadcast from overseas to stoke the political temperature. He accused senior advisors to revered monarch King Bhumibol Adulyadej of plotting the military coup which removed him as prime minister -- an allegation the advisors deny.

"We are gaining some momentum. This isn't so much about Mr. Thaksin any more, it's about restoring democracy," one of the protest organizers, Nattawuth Saikua, said in an interview."

Thailand's latest unrest

29 March 2009

Last Saturday former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra urged supporters to rise up against the government as protesters continued their siege of the offices of the current prime minister.

Thaksin also criticised Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's economic policies during a video call to his supporters.

This appears to be the final big push by Thaksin who the previous day had made a speech blaming the revered king's main advisers for the 2006 coup that toppled him.

'Please rise up across the country and be ready to wear the red shirts and take our democracy back,' Thaksin said, referring to the signature clothing worn by his supporters. 'If you want democracy then you have to come and fight.' Thaksin said that the growing number of jobless in Thailand, which the government says could hit one million this year, would lead to 'crime, drugs and social unrest.'

Thaksin's assertion is that the king's advisers - ex-premiers General Prem Tinsulanonda and General Surayud Chulanont - were responsible for the coup against him.

Thaksin, currently living in exile to avoid a two-year jail sentence for corruption, is awaiting a further court hearing on US$2.2 billion of his frozen assets.

Prem Tinsulanonda is the current Privy Council president and was Thai prime minister from 1980 to 1988; Thaksin says that he was the main 'powerful' person behind the September 19, 2006.

Thaksin insisted that neither the king nor Queen Sirikit had been involved in his downfall.

Prem has repeatedly denied any involvement with the 2006 coup, as have all other privy councillors.

It is hard to see what Thaksin expects to gain by revealing names now; especially as the names will come as no surprise to anyone. In reality Thaksin so antagonized the Bangkok middle class and the so-called political elite with his self-serving economic policies and dictatorial tendancies that the coups had become a matter of when and not if.

New medical rules in Dubai

28 March 2009

There is a new law in the UAE that is a significant issue for many women working and living in Dubai.

Medical clinics in the city have advised that due to a change in UAE federal law, there is now a requirement for a Doctor to have the consent of a spouse to prescribe contraception to any married woman.

Unmarried women may not purchase contraceptive pills. They may be prescribed by a doctor but only to treat a medical condition.

Married women require a prescription which can only be given with a spouse's written consent.

The new law includes the application of severe penalties for any Doctor who does not comply with the law.

Other than thinking that this really is a step backwards there are two immediate concerns.

How does the law apply to a single woman who brings contraceptive pills into the country with her?

How does the Doctor verify the spousal consent. Does he need to meet the spouse. Does he need to see the wedding certificate. What if (as we do) the husband and wife have different family names?
 

Nasa's latest view of Dubai

28 March 2009

This new image from a Nasa imaging satellite looks down on Dubai. It shows the full-scale and ambition of the World development; all still reclaimed land without any property development.

Now and Zen

28 March 2009

It is seven years since I was last in Japan; it was a final visit to Tokyo when I left Reuters. And it is 15 years since I last went to Kyoto. One of the pleasures of going back there now is that digital photography allows me to capture and share the visit. 15 years ago I was shooting rolls of 36 pictures and the prints are still gathering dust in photo albums.

I don't pretend that I will ever understand Japan. But it is a fascinating country to visit; it can seem so sophisticated and sometimes so under developed at the same time.

The Japanese are used to a recession; indeed they must wonder what all the fuss is about. They have been in recession for at least 10 years now ! Prices have not changed. The 100 yen shop is still a 100 yen shop. The vending machines still give you something in return for 100 yen.

We went from Nagoya to Kyoto on Japan's super Shinkansen, or bullet train. This hurries along at speeds reaching 186 mph. The bulletlike train runs along elevated tracks that are designed to cross Japan's mountainous terrain using tunnels and viaducts to go through and over obstacles rather than around them. An automated control system eliminates the need for signals.

Developed for use during the Tokyo Olympics in 1964, the Shinkansen trains were the brainchild of Hideo Shima, a government engineer who died a decade ago at 96.The trains remain in stations for only two minutes — not a moment more or less — before easing out and quickly gaining speed. But the sound is a whisper and the ride is smooth.

Officials boast that the trains on average are less than half a minute late each year, which includes delays caused by earthquakes, typhoons, snow and heavy rain. During the line's 45-year history and transport of 7 billion passengers, there have been no deaths from derailment or collisions.

A new E-5 series of trains scheduled to take to the rails in 2011 promises speeds of nearly 200 mph, improved suspensions and a car-body tilting system to make the ride more comfortable around curves.

The only shock is the price; a reserved seat for the 40 minute Nagoya to Kyoto ride is approximately US$50 each way.

The Japanese cities thrive because of their public transport infrastructure. The Japanese have succeeded where other cities, Bangkok being an obvious example, have failed. The Japanese use trains, buses and subway systems to get to work, to shop, to eat out and intra and inter city. The systems are inter-connected, safe and reliable. Even late at night the stations are a buzz of activity. There is an underground city of shops and facilities around each station. It is hugely impressive and part of the way of life.

The stores seem busy; there are plenty of people shopping yet business at department stores, which indicates demand for luxury goods and premium items, was particularly poor in February. Sales plunged 11.5% from a year earlier, according to the Japan Department Stores Association.

Japan's manufacturers are suffering badly from the global downturn, with firms such as Toyota and Sony cutting production in response to declining demand. Japanese exports fell by nearly 50% in February.

The International Monetary Fund has predicted that the Japanese economy would shrink by 5.8% this year, though many economists think it could be far worse.

Strangely in the cities is does not feel that bad. The signs of urban recession that you can see in the UK or USA are not as apparent in Japan.

It was cold in Nagoya this week; with temperatures in single figures celcius. But this does not stop the girls from wearing the latest in pop fashion; short skin tight shorts with knee length black leggings! Eye-catching certainly. But awfully cold to wear!

The nicest part about Japan is how friendly the people still are to visitors. English is only spoken by a handful of people. Menus are often in Japanese only; and if they are in English the translation is unusual at best. But a smile and some pointing and you can eat as the locals eat. Eating is an obsession and the food is fresh and of high quality.

People stop and offer to take your photograph; they will happily try and direct you if you are struggling with a map. Immigration was done with a welcoming smile; how the USA could learn from that.

One newer trend; the number of French named bakeries and coffee shops; almost more common that the local 7-11. 

We were a little too early for the best of the Kyoto cherry blossom; it has been cold for the last week and that may have delayed the blossoms a little. Kyoto was still busy, in particular with Japanese tourists who had come to the city.

It was a very enjoyable visit. A little too short; we were there for just 48 hours. Hopefully it will not be another seven years before we go back.

How to spend your Baht2000

28 March 2009

I am mystified how the Baht2,000 handouts in Thailand will do anything to stimulate the Thai economy. Yet people have been queuing for hours for the equivalent of a once off payment of US$50.

The queues also mean that people are having to take time away from their work to collect the payments. The cost of lost productivity should be a match for any economic stimulus as people spend their cheques.

The first of the Baht 2,000-baht cheques were distributed on Thursday and this will continue until April 8. This is all part of the Thai government's Baht 117billion plan to stimulate domestic spending.

Recipients of the cheques are Social Security Fund members, civil servants and state enterprise workers whose salaries are less than 15,000 baht.

I thought vote buying was illegal in Thailand; many politicians have been banned for just such an offence. But I am sure that come the next election voters will be reminded just who gave them this handout which will be received by some 9 million people.

Stores and shopping complexes are quickly cashing in on the payment. KFC have offered to exchange the cheques for KFC vouchers with an extra 20 pieces of chicken as a bonus ! Other malls are packaging baskets of products for Baht 2,000 to exchange for the cheques.

My bet, with Songkran coming in a couple of weeks, is that Black Label sales will soar and the Johnnie Walker will have happy Thai New Year.  

The trouble is that people with low income that are being told by the government that these cheques will turn around their lives and change the domestic economy; but the trouble with a one - time hand out is what happens next month? Expectations have been created that will be hard to manage.

Bomb hoax update

27 March 2009

An update on the London bound Emirates bomb hoax. The implication from the crew member is that his actions resulted from stress due to fatique; inducing both mental and physical tiredness. It may also be that the EK407 accident at Melbourne can in part be attributed to crew fatigue.

The question that should now be researched is whether Emirates rostering practices are contributing to crew fatique and potentially to a serious accident. 

Mr Carney, who was charged in relation to the bomb hoax, has been held in custody this week in a prison hospital on 24-hour suicide watch.

His father John Carney has flown from Melbourne to support him, fearing his son has suffered some sort of mental breakdown.

Appearing by video link at Mid Sussex Magistrates Court yesterday, a visibly distressed Mr Carney was refused bail after a panel of three magistrates heard claims about how two notes referring to a bomb were found on the jumbo.

Prosecutor Alice Trodden told the court fears about a bomb first arose during the Dubai to Gatwick flight when Mr Carney allegedly found wires hanging in an economy toilet cubicle.

He alerted senior staff who found the wires were not connected to any electrical devices and removed them before instructing cabin crew to monitor the cubicle for suspicious activity.

Towards the end of the flight, Mr Carney restocked another economy toilet with paper.

When he finished, passenger Mohammed Remtullah entered the cubicle and allegedly found a note stuck between a baby change table and wall.

Mrs Trodden said it read: "Explosive material can be found in the fwd (forward) cargo department.

"We have the Taliban to thank for this. It will activate."

Mr Remtullah alerted Carney and his supervisor to the note, which was passed on to the captain who warned ground staff at Gatwick.

Shortly after landing on Monday, the plane was directed to remote secure area where police, ambulance and fire crews stood on alert.

The bomb scare forced the airport to close for 15 minutes, causing delays to all incoming and outgoing aircraft.

Mrs Trodden said while the plane's 164 passengers and 18 crew spent the next 10 hours being questioned and having their bags searched another note was found in a pair of shorts in Carney's bag.

It allegedly said: "Cargo contains explosives."

"He was shown that note and denied that he had written it," she said, adding that the handwriting appeared similar to the note found in the plane toilet.

Mr Carney, who lives in Dubai, was charged with communicating information believed to be false with the intention of inducing a false belief that an object liable to explode or ignite was present in the cargo of a plane.

He has not yet entered a plea and is due to face a committal hearing on April 23 when a trial date is expected to be set.

Mrs Trodden described the charge as "very serious" and said if Mr Carney was found guilty he faced at least two years in jail.

Applying for bail his solicitor Jessie Mond Wedd said Mr Carney's family and friends were concerned he "is suffering from some sort of breakdown".

"This is a very out of character situation that he finds himself in," she said, adding Mr Carney had not slept for four days before the flight because he had been working non-stop.

The chairwoman of the magistrates' panel Sandie Moore refused bail, saying there was a risk Mr Carney could flee England.

Emirates steward is alleged bomb hoaxer

23 March 2009

It is not the best of publicity week's for everyone's favourite Dubai airline and the PR department will have been earning their salaries this week.

The bomb hoax on the early morning flight to London's Gatwick Airport last Sunday was allegedly the work of a junior flight steward. The Emirates Boeing 777 from Dubai landed at Gatwick Airport and was greeted by Sussex Police and a Explosive Ordnance Disposal unit who evacuated the passengers and crew before searching the aircraft and luggage for explosive devices.

Most other news sources are simply reporting the rest of an Australian man. The Age gives the details of his employment and has clearly interviewed family members.

It is hard to know what to think. How dopey can someone be. Gatwick Airport was shut down; some flights were diverted. This is an expensive moment of idiocy and given that he was employed as crew he will be held to higher standards of responsibility. If guilt he could well have a long stretch in jail and he can expect no sympathy from the airline.

The Age in Australia reports today that :

"THE family of a Melbourne airline steward fear for his mental health after he was arrested on Sunday following a bomb threat on a flight from Dubai to London.

Matthew Carney, 23, from Chirnside, faces up to five years in prison for his alleged role in a bomb hoax, which prompted emergency action ten minutes before the Emirates flight, carrying 184 passengers, was due to touch down at Gatwick airport.

A note believed to have been found by a passenger in the plane's toilet suggested that there was a bomb in the cargo hold.

Carney's uncle, Jeff Dans, 50, suggested the Emirates steward was in a fragile state of mind during the flight, was on medication and for some reason had just cracked.

"There are clearly some mental problems here," Mr Dans said.

"I cannot understand how this has happened; you would never expect this bloke to be charged with a terrorism act. You have to think that it's a moment of insanity."

Explosives experts searched the plane while passengers and crew were interviewed by police. Carney was then arrested.

"The accusation is that it (the bomb threat note) was written by Matthew," Mr Dans said.

He said a close friend of Carney in Dubai had advised the Emirates steward not to make the flight as he was clearly unwell.

"At present he is in an even worse mental state than he was; he is not lucid and unable to defend himself," Mr Dans said.

Carney has been charged with inducing a false belief that an object liable to explode or ignite was in the plane's cargo hold, police said.

He entered no plea in court, was remanded in custody and will face the Crawley Magistrates Court tomorrow.

Mr Dans said legal advisers suggested that if found guilty, Carney could face two to five years in prison.

The return flight to Dubai was delayed by up to seven hours.

Carney and his family are being provided with Australian consular assistance. His father is on his way to London."

Here we go again

22 March 2009

Here we go again. And from The Guardian. My newspaper. My ex-newspaper. Yet another ranting, hysterical article proclaiming the demise of Dubai. Each one seems to be more extreme than the other.

Of course Dubai is suffering, like many other countries in the world. But I think reports of its death remain premature. Dubai, for all it's faults, has given many people a decent living in this part of the world. It remains a favoured destination for many middle east professionals. Not for any sort of hedonistic lifestyle. Just for a decent enough place to work and live.

This may not be the perfect place to live but would I want to live in Mr Jenkins' UK; the petty-minded, reality-tv-obsessed, crumbling UK. No one is any doubt about the curbs on freedom and lack of equality that exist in the UAE. The treatment of the majority of the migrant labourers from the subcontinent is appalling, but the worst thing that could happen for those workers is to be sent back to even greater poverty and deprivation in their country of origin. Their remittances , however small, kept their families fed and housed and their children in school.

True, Dubai's is undergoing a major reality check. Many of the excesses of the past will be gone. That will be good for this city.

As they did Ozymandias,the dunes will reclaim the soaring folly of Dubai

This off-the-shelf city state, built on laundering the profits of oil, drugs, arms and western aid, stands on the brink

Simon Jenkins The Guardian, Friday 20 March 2009

"Hovering over Dubai is a cloud called nemesis. The first time I saw the place two years ago through a plane window, its towers were hovering in the heat over the desert, gulping up water and energy and fussed round by reputedly a quarter of the world's construction cranes. Even then the vision was unmistakable, of Ozymandias and his "vast and trunkless legs of stone".

When prices go up, buildings go up. When prices come down, buildings tend to stay up. Until recently visitors to Dubai returned gasping. This was truly a city designed from start to finish by autocrats and architects. It was the last word in iconic overkill, a festival of egotism with humanity denied. It was an architectural chorus line of towers, each shouting louder and kicking higher. People were ants.

Dubai must have as many publicists as it has towers. Business and travel journalists in need of a freebie can just call. So, too, did a stage army of British writers who went to last month's Dubai International Festival of Literature, pretending to discover that it was not a free country (and practises censorship) only after being installed in their luxury rooms. A "tower of Babel" of a place "with neither charm nor character", declared an ungrateful Germaine Greer.

Even as the property market turned sour last autumn, the vast Atlantis hotel, built for $1.5bn with a whale shark in its swimming pool, was spending $20m on its launch party. Yet still the supplements and television contra-deals spluttered their superlatives - recently from a near-hysterical Piers Morgan. Every time the builder of the tallest tower in the world, the monster of Burj Dubai, sees the local ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Al-Maktoum, he is told to add more storeys for fear someone else may build an even taller one.

The stockmarket is down 70% on 2005's level, and construction has ceased on half the unfinished towers that stretch out into the desert. Eighty per cent of the population of Dubai are passing migrants who are there, like gold-diggers of old, only for the cash. The cash is going and so are they, leaving expensive cars in the street and at the airport, many fleeing possible imprisonment for debt.

Consider, meanwhile, the city of Detroit. Here was another that rose on the shore of an inland sea, fuelled by the cult of hypermobility. With the implosion of the motor industry it has gone to seed. Houses are pictured boarded-up or selling for a dollar. Dogs roam empty streets. Wind howls through vacant shops. The unbelievable has come to pass. The love child of America's greatest postwar passion is preparing to die.

Detroit is part of a great country that has shown itself capable of rescuing even its rustbelt municipalities. But this depends on finding people who will live in a place from which most have fled. Luckily, much of Detroit is of low-rise plot housing that could be transformed at least into Bohemian neighbourhoods, like ruined New Orleans.

No such option is available to Dubai. It is the ultimate Corbusian city, rigid in format and old-fashioned in conception, based on the grids and set squares of super-planners, and on grand symbolic buildings rather than intimate streets. It cannot respond to demand and supply for land and property, let alone to the wishes of free citizens. Human scale is confined to the Las-Vegas style replicas of Florence and Venice adopted by hotels that realise guests will not come if slapped constantly in the face by modern architecture. One business that cannot afford inhumanity is a hotel.

Such cities are like the planned science settlements of Soviet Russia or the instant downtowns of American "metroplexes", in which people do as planners ordain. There are no visual surprises, no corners of privacy away from big brother or at least big car. Buildings are exclusive and architecturally defensive, like London's Barbican.

I can only imagine that Dubai will one day be seen as a punctuation mark on the architectural follies of the past half century. This off-the-shelf city state has been built on laundering the profits of oil, drugs, arms and western aid. Its sheikh was not a complete fool, like comparable African and Latin American autocrats. He realised that city states cannot live on one product alone, unless it is money. Since he had no oil, he would drill for money.

Mohammed Al-Maktoum's failing has been his belief that megalomania is best when done big. He built a giant port and a giant airport, a giant stock exchange, giant finance sector and giant shopping mall. Dubai is a monument to big-must-be-beautiful.

During the gold rush the prospectors came. But as the rush wanes, Dubai is believed to be nursing the world's biggest per-capita debt. It may have to be bailed out by its neighbouring Gulf states, whose more prudent attractions Dubai tried to outshine; indeed, the process has already begun.

Nothing can bail out a tower if there is nobody to live in it. It cannot be pulled down and Chipping Camden replicated on the spot. The same goes for thousands of villas and apartment blocks along the Gulf shore and on the artificial islands in the world's most boring sea. They will stand empty in the heat.

Most were bought as investments. The value of those investments has fallen an estimated 60% in just six months. If their emptiness reaches a tipping point where there are no neighbours, no shops, no services and no social life, they will decay, like downtown Detroit.

Smart money says Dubai could survive as the playground of India, even if the oil money of the Middle East moves back to more salubrious Europe. This depends on India failing to supply its own playground and, critically, on Dubai surviving what could be a Muslim backlash against its hesitantly hedonistic western lifestyle. Rivals such as Dohar, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain - especially as they are now bailing out Dubai - may welcome its swift return to the desert ecology.

Just as visitors to the Middle East see half-built, mostly abandoned concrete housing blocks and barracks littering the landscape of Syria and Jordan, so the towers of Dubai will become casualties not of human greed but of architectural folly. Their lifts and services, expensive to maintain, will collapse. Their colossal facades will shed glass. Sand will drift round their trunkless legs. Animals will inhabit their basements.

Thousands of residential properties, if occupied at all, will be squatted by a migratory poor, like the hotel towers of the Spanish littoral or Corbusier's blockhouses of Chandigarh in India. Refugees will colonise the camps where Indian workers have lived as they built Dubai. Gangs will seize the gated estates and random anarchy will rule the soulless boulevards.

If it is lucky Dubai will at least be a refuge from the political cataclysms that could engulf countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. But mostly the dunes will reclaim the place. In centuries to come, tourists will share with Ozymandias the message: "Look on my works ye mighty and despair." With Shelley they will see how, "round the decay /Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare /The lone and level sands stretch far away."

China; recession fuels status

22 March 2009

In any historical event at any time there are winners and losers: China is not getting much attention; but the recession is global and its impact on China is significant.  But it may be that China will emerge as a significantly stronger global influence when the dust settles and a little normalcy returns to the world economy.

The rise of China over the past three decades has been astonishing. With America's leaders substantially fully focused on domestic issues and Europe and Japan stagnating there is a sense in Beijing that the reassertion of the Middle Kingdom’s global ascendancy is at hand.

China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, talks of China as a “great power” and worries about America’s profligate spending endangering his $1 trillion nest egg there. That was a very interesting exchange last week. Incautious remarks by the new American treasury secretary about China manipulating its currency were dismissed as ridiculous; a duly penitent Hillary Clinton was welcomed in Beijing, but as an equal.

Last week also saw an apparent attempt to engineer a low-level naval confrontation with an American spy research ship in the South China Sea.

At least the Americans get noticed.

Europe is ignored: an EU summit was cancelled and France is still blacklisted because Nicolas Sarkozy met the Dalai Lama.

Is modern geopolitics now a bipolar affair, with America and China the only two that matter. How do the Indians and Russians respond to that.

In London next month the real business will not be the G20 meeting but the “G2” summit between Presidents Barack Obama and Hu Jintao.

This must worry the Europeans and the Japanese.

But there is some bravado here. China is still facing its most difficult year of the new century with perhaps 20million jobs already lost. This leads to significant debate both about its economic system and the sort of great power it wants to be. One element to fear is increasing Chinese xenophobia which is neither good for the country or for the rest of us.

So China is in a more precarious situation than many Westerners think. The EU, for all its faults, is still the world’s biggest economy. India’s population is overtaking China but India has its own economic problems to deal with.

The reality is that China’s relative power is plainly growing—and both the West and China itself need to adjust to this.

With greater influence comes greater responsibility as a “responsible stakeholder” in the international system. The G20 is a chance to give China a bigger stake in global decision-making than was available in the small clubs of the G7 and G8. But it is also a chance for China to show it can exercise its new influence responsibly.

I know one thing for sure; forget the UK. No influence. Not now.

China’s record as a responsible citizen is not great. From Iran to Sudan China hides behind the excuse that it does not want to intervene in other countries’ affairs.

Yet over three decades no country has gained more from globalisation than China. It is time to join the international community with responsibility and engagement. And with decency and respect for human rights. China has learned a lot but has still to show that it can operate effectively as one of the great powers.

SQ may defer future A380 deliveries

21 March 2009

Singapore Airlines said yesterday that it would receive four Airbus A380 superjumbos as planned this year but could not rule out deferring future deliveries as passenger and cargo volumes drop.

'Singapore Airlines is scheduled to take delivery of four A380s this year, and we have no immediate plans to defer any aircraft deliveries,' the company said in a statement to AFP.

'However, we don't discount the possibility of deferring future deliveries as we consider the options for our fleet going forward,' it added.

SIA, regarded as a bellweather for the industry, reported last week a huge drop in passenger numbers and cargo shipments for February.

The carrier flew 1.18 million passengers in February, down 20.2 per cent from the same month in 2008. It also filled 69.7 per cent of available passenger seats during the month, down 7.1 percentage points. This is despite significant capacity reductions.

Cargo volumes slipped 16.9 per cent and the airline filled 56.7 per cent of available freight space, down 5.5 percentage points from last year.

EK in Melbourne incident

21 March 2009

An Emirates flight (EK407) made an emergency landing in Melbourne after the Airbus A340-500's tail struck the tarmac on take-off.

Flight EK407, headed for Dubai with 225 passengers on board, had to dump fuel and there were reports of smoke filling the cabin before the plane made an emergency landing about 30 minutes after the 10.30pm

There is little mention of this in the UAE media and the Australian media is mainly full of scared passenger stories.

What does appear to be the case is that this was very nearly a major incident and that a full investigation will now be required as well as some expensive repair work. For the moment the airplane will remain in Melbourne pending an assessment of the necessary repairs.

These are pictures of the damaged tail from PPRUNE.

What happened?

Take off was on Runway 16. The aircraft was struggling to take off and the tail struck the runway. Worse. The aircraft took out the ILS localiser main and monitoring antennae at the end of Runway 16 (the Runway 34 threshold). There were also tracks (probably jet blast) in the grass off the end of 16.

After dumping fuel the plane landed on Runway 34. The landing was apparently very long with touchdown well down runway 34 and far from the threshold. Reverse thrust was engaged quickly.

There were about 8 emergency vehicles on the tarmac and once the flight came to a complete stop at the end of 34, flood lights lit up the aircraft checking for any damage preventing it from taxing back to the gate.

One reporter commented that there were 3 seperate tail strikes observed on the take off roll and this leads to speculation that freight may have shifted rearward on rotation causing the problem.

Passengers reported that the tail strike led to smoke filling the cabin before the plane returned to Melbourne at 10.30pm last night.

"There was a report of smoke in the cabin, however, it did not impact the air return and dissipated before landing,'' an Emirates spokesperson said continuing that "the aircraft climbed safely to an intermediate altitude and contacted air traffic control to arrange the return to Melbourne. The landing was completed without incident''.

A Melbourne Airport spokesman said the incident was described in the industry as a "tail hit". "It took off very steeply, the tail touched the end of the runway and it went up, stabilised and came back," he said.

Emirates safety investigators are flying to Melbourne and will join the Australian Transport Safety Bureau in examining the cause of the incident. The crew have presumably been grounded while the investigation is commenced. It is unfair to speculate but if the cargo did shift on take off the pilots may have performed heroically!

The Australian investigation will be thorough and transparent. That may not have been the case in other jurisdictions.

There are at many possible causes; power loss on take-off; overweight or incorrect weight distribution (cargo); miscalculation of the rotation speeds; shifting freight. The good news is that everyone is safe.

Weekend distraction

20 March 2009

One of Tai's colleagues has a cousin entered in this year's Thai Miss Universe. Which prompted a small search for Thai models!

Thailand's glamour industry is huge - beauty pageants are a regular town, province and national event. Successful models appear in a huge number of domestic publications and often use their success as a stepping stone to a TV career.

Here are a few covers and pictures from MARS Magazine. There is a catch. Apparently only one of these cover models was born as a girl and I will not tell you which one!

From the website that can do anything - from financial meltdown to gender mysteries!

The bonus red herring

20 March 2009

The so called “new economy” is a recent memory when people made I.P.O.’s out of thin air and made millions.

It is remarkable just how rapidly this new economy fell apart to reveal gaping loopholes in our laws, outright frauds and a flawed free market ideology that allowed whole industries to go unregulated and to eventually bankrupt the largest financial institutions in the world.

One minute Allen Stanford is groping the wives of the English cricket team - next his financial empire is crumbling in a massive Ponzi scheme. Bernie Madoff is on his way to jail - Stanford really has to follow.

Where were the auditors? Where were the regulators? M.I.A.

But we need to be careful. There is massive self righteous uproar about paying bonuses. As someone who has not seen a bonus since 2006 I have no personal interest.

The US Congress last night passed an extraordinary law to claw back 90 per cent of bonus payments given out by banks receiving federal bail-out funds. The law, which must still be endorsed by the Senate and President Barack Obama came amid a public outcry over payments of $165 million (£114 million) in bonuses to employees of the ailing insurance giant AIG, a company kept alive with $170 billion of federal assistance.

It is not unreasonable to be amazed at bonuses being paid to people who have gutted banks and insurers and forced this massive government intervention.

But, the problem is that bonuses play a central role in the way that banks compensate their employees. Almost everyone in global banking gets a bonus at year's end. that is how the compensation packages work. While most American workers are compensated primarily by a fixed annual salary or through regular commission payments, people who work in the capital markets receive the majority of their annual income in a lump-sum payment based on their performance, the success of their unit and company profits.

Paying bonuses allows firms to tie employee compensation to performance in a given year, something management experts have long regarded as a good practice. But tying bonuses to short-term has led to employees taking huge short-term risks with long-term consequences.

The US bill would impose large pay cuts on thousands of employees at eight of the nation's largest banks, according to compensation experts. The version pending before the Senate would force dozens more banks to cut the pay of thousands of additional employees.  The risk is  that if you are an experienced professional it will impact you.

Many of the banks and financial institutions are now under state control; effectively controlled by taxpayers. We need these banks to be able to retain and motivate talented people that get us out of this huge hole. And yes these may be the people that got us into it. At least they may understand the system. It is clear that the so called regulators do not.

Some bank executives warned yesterday that the government is forcing them toward a disastrous choice between accepting restrictions on compensation that could cripple their ability to compete with rivals, or returning billions in federal aid, which could retard lending and damage the economy.

The great concern among banks is that the legislation singles out recipients of federal aid for new restrictions while other firms don't have this burden. Executives at U.S. banks already are worried about a flight of talented employees to other jobs, including those at unregulated financial firms.

The last thing that is needed now is action that could trigger the unraveling of the broader federal bailout of troubled banks.

The intricacies of restructuring assets and saving banks can be hard even for the experts to understand. In the scheme of things the bonuses (US$165 million at AIG for instance) are chicken feed compared to the billions paid in bail-out funds.

The only saving grace is that  the financial world is shrinking before our eyes, eliminating many thousands of jobs at every level. There really are not going to be many places to move to. Remaining employed sounds like a good deal to most people, even those with fancy titles.

Crazy compensation is one of the central reasons the financial industry and the nation are in so much trouble. Taxpayers don't need to apologize for enforcing more discipline. But it needs a planned longer term response rather than knew jerk reaction. There will be many people hurt by this legislation who had every reason to expect some form of bonus payment. The deserving majority will lose out due to the greed and excesses of the minority and the failure of regulation.
 

Cheap but not nasty !

19 March 2009

From the Economist

"In 1976 Tony Fernandes, aged 12, found himself being put on a plane to London from Kuala Lumpur by his father, who wanted his son to become a doctor and had enrolled him at a fancy boarding school associated with the medical profession. Mr Fernandes did not become a doctor. Instead, his father’s decision to send him to school in London ended up shaping his career in a rather different and unexpected way. When his pleas to be allowed home at half-term were rejected because of the cost of the flight, the young Mr Fernandes opted for what seemed like the next best thing: hanging out at Heathrow airport at weekends, planespotting. Unlike most boys of his age, Tony was not very interested in becoming a pilot. Inspired by Freddie Laker’s heroic efforts to launch his SkyTrain service to America, Mr Fernandes decided that what he really wanted was his own low-cost airline.

This month AirAsia X, the long-haul sister of AirAsia, the airline acquired by Mr Fernandes in 2001, began a five-day-a-week service from Kuala Lumpur to London, with an average ticket price of £179 ($250). AirAsia X’s first plane, an Airbus A330, was christened “Semangat Sir Freddie” (Spirit of Sir Freddie)—both a tribute to a fellow aviation entrepreneur and a reminder that few budget long-haul airlines have survived for very long.

Mr Fernandes has finally achieved his boyhood dream, albeit by an unusual route. After graduating from the London School of Economics with a degree in accounting, he spent 14 years in the music business, working first for Richard Branson’s Virgin Records and then running Warner Music in his native Malaysia. Deeply apprehensive about the merger between Time Warner and AOL in 2001, Mr Fernandes left Warner Music soon after the disastrous deal was finalised, cashing in his shares just in time. Returning to London, he happened to see a television interview with Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the founder of easyJet. The next morning he took himself off to easyJet’s base at Luton airport to see, at first hand, how the no-frills airline operated. The next day he returned with a video camera. If easyJet could make money flying people from Luton to Barcelona for £8, he asked himself, could he transplant the same model to Malaysia?

Already Mr Fernandes was thinking about applying the low-cost approach to long-haul—he even went to see GE Capital, to ask if he could lease a Boeing 747. But on the advice of Conor McCarthy, a hard-nosed former head of operations at Ryanair, he agreed to start with a short-haul business. To that end, he approached Malaysia’s then prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, in June 2001 to see whether he would get official backing for his plan to challenge Malaysia Airlines’s local monopoly. The canny Mr Mahathir said that he would grant his blessing, but on condition that Mr Fernandes took over an existing airline: AirAsia, a struggling subsidiary of a government-owned conglomerate.

AirAsia had a couple of elderly Boeing 737s, 40m ringgit ($11m) of debt and not much else. Mr Mahathir told Mr Fernandes he could have it for one ringgit. The deal was signed just three days before the world’s airline industry was convulsed by the events of September 11th. By putting in the money from his Time Warner shares, remortgaging his home and bringing in a handful of outside investors, including Mr McCarthy, Mr Fernandes scraped together just enough working capital to run the business, but only if it could be made profitable from the first day.

There was no shortage of sceptics. Not only did it seem to be a terrible time to be starting out, but it was also widely assumed that the low-cost model would not work in Asia, where customers expect high levels of service. Mr Fernandes, however, reckoned that Asia would be spared the worst of the downturn and that he could take advantage of good deals on aircraft that other airlines no longer wanted. He was also convinced that the offer of ticket prices 50% below those of his rivals would speak for itself.

So it proved. In its first full year of operation, AirAsia carried just over a million passengers. This year, with its associate airlines in Thailand and Indonesia, it expects to fly 22m passengers (or “guests”, as Mr Fernandes calls them). The number of destinations it serves has risen from six to 110. With a nearly all-Airbus fleet of 80 aircraft and 175 more A320s on order, AirAsia has become one of the European planemaker’s best customers. AirAsia X, in which Mr Fernandes’s old boss, Mr Branson, has a 20% stake, wants 25 of the new A350s to add to the handful of A330s and the (London-bound) A340 it already operates. As well as the new London route, it flies to Australia, China and India. Unlike other long-haul budget operators that have crashed and burned, AirAsia X has the advantage of economies of scale with its short-haul sister airline, which also acts as a regional feeder network.

AirAsia has been profitable for all but the second half of 2008, when Mr Fernandes decided to unwind fuel hedges before most other airlines took the plunge. After taking an initial hit, AirAsia is now getting the full benefit of oil at $40 a barrel while some rivals are still paying $100. That decision is typical of Mr Fernandes’s willingness to break ranks. When other airlines slashed advertising during the SARS scare in 2003, AirAsia tripled its spending.

Mr Fernandes says that he came to the industry with no preconceptions, but found it rigidly compartmentalised and dysfunctional. He wanted AirAsia to reflect his own unstuffy, open and cheerful personality. He is rarely seen without his baseball cap, open-neck shirt and jeans, and he is proud that the firm’s lack of hierarchy (very unusual in Asia) means anyone can rise to do anyone else’s job. AirAsia employs pilots who started out as baggage handlers and stewards; for his part, Mr Fernandes also practises what he preaches. Every month he spends a day as a baggage-handler; every two months, a day as cabin crew; every three months, a day as a check-in clerk. He has even established a “culture department” to “pass the message and hold parties”."
 

Good times end for Dubai's expats
By Simeon Kerr - The Financial Times

Published: March 17 2009 02:00

"Dubai's Hot 100 party last month was a reminder of the city's high-rolling times before the credit crunch. The annual celebration, laid on by a magazine profiling the United Arab Emirates' smart set, drew a crowd of boldfaced names: Thaksin Shinawatra, former Thai prime minister, mingled with developer Sulaiman al-Fahim, who brokered the sale of Manchester City football club to an Abu Dhabi sheikh.

But among the employees of ITP, the magazine's publisher, the free drinks were going down with more than the usual gusto. That week ITP cut its staff by about 10 per cent. "People knew the sackings were coming, and sure enough it was rough," says one of those axed.

For thousands of expatriates lured to Dubai by the promise of year-round sunshine and a tax-free lifestyle, the party is over. Corporate restructurings have arrived hard on the heels of steep falls in property prices and plummeting consumer confidence; El Dorado is fading back into desert. As the cutbacks spread from finance and real estate to sectors such as tourism, media and retail, many are packing up and heading home.

Dubai's roads and restaurants are noticeably quieter and onceexorbitant rents are becoming more reasonable by the month. The government claims visa issuance is holding up and denies reports of mass cancellations. But a YouGov poll in the UAE found more than half of respondents knew a family member or close friend who had been made redundant, a figure that had risen sharply from the end of 2008.

At Dubai's highest-profile investment company, Dubai International Capital, for example, staff are in flux as its parent company, owned by the ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, merges back-office functions with another of his investment vehicles. "It's a nightmare," says one. "We go into the office unsure if we will have a job at the end of the day."

The end of this month is expected to accelerate the departures among two of the largest white-collar expat communities, Britons and Indians, as it signals the end of the Indian school year and British schools' spring term. Many employers have aided sacked staff, especially those with children, by extending visas so they do not have to leave quickly. Britons have also been wary of tax liabilities caused by returning before April 1, the new UK tax year.

In a labour market that remains underdeveloped by western standards, lawyers and recruiters are preparing for a rising volume of complaints as foreigners fight for severance pay while the government of the UAE reiterates its ban on private-sector employers making making locals redundant. The job losses already announced and others still to come are seen as a big test of employment laws in a territory that has never known widespread hardship.

One difficulty, according to a western lawyer at a large Dubai business, is that there is "no real legal concept of redundancy" and no obligation on companies beyond paying staff their notice and modest severance pay.

The expat rumour mill, which has gone into overdrive since the economic crisis struck in October, talks in dark tones about companies letting whole departments go at a stroke or shedding small groups of employees every week to minimise bad publicity.

A further complication is the pressure a slew of employment disputes could put on both the local courts and the special court for the Dubai International Financial Centre, where many multinationals are based. The centre's court - which has an international panel of top commercial judges - is embroiled in a number of time-consuming employment cases, some on appeal from a small claims tribunal.

In one such appeal in January, a former finance executive was fighting his ex-employer over just Dh25,209 (£4,825) of disputed severance pay. Mark Beer, DIFC court registrar, insists the court can handle the workload but admits he hopes the "vast majority" of disputes will be resolved before reaching that stage.

Many more disputes are expected, especially involving western expatriates who took high-paying jobs in Dubai when demand was high but now find their positions under threat.

As the Dubai International Finance Centre blossomed from 2005, hundreds of companies used it as a regional launch pad and went on a hiring spree, scooping up experienced and novice bankers alike. But regional equity markets have fallen with the oil price, corporate finance and debt are dormant, and restructuring work has proved more modest than bankers hoped. Now, at both international names such as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse and local powerhouses such as Shuaa Capital and Mashreq, headcounts are dropping.

"During the speculative boom, a lot of people who were wholly unemployable in London found their way out here. And they have been found wanting," says one recruitment consultant.

At Dubai Properties, a large developer owned by the ruler Sheikh Mohammed, a handful of employees are in dispute with the company after they were asked to leave without severance pay late last year. The company, which is about to hand over another major residential complex in Business Bay, says those affected have been well looked after, and offered extended residence visas so they can seek other jobs and avoid disrupting their children's education.

The ex-employees, who want to remain anonymous as some have yet to settle with the company, say their legal advice is that any employee facing "arbitrary dismissal not linked to performance", such as redundancy, is entitled to between one and three months of severance pay, on top of any salary covering their notice periods. But they see little point in pursuing legal action over the relatively modest sums involved.

Not all those made redundant are heading home. According to Peter Henry, a Dubai-based partner for headhunters Whitehead Mann, opportunities remain elsewhere in the region, especially in the risk functions of banks and conglomerates.

"If you look beyond Dubai, it is more positive: Abu Dhabi, Doha and to a certain extent in Bahrain," he says. "Saudi is also a very active market, where they are expanding businesses and international joint ventures are going ahead and we see a need for senior talent." Nevertheless, Dubai's lifestyle continues to make it the most attractive Gulf posting.

Others are prepared to wait for things to improve. Last year, Dubai hired Richard Attias, husband of Nicholas Sarkozy's ex-wife Cecilia, to promote the city through an events company focusing on sports and culture. But corporate sponsorship evaporated, leaving the former Publicis executive an obvious target for the ongoing cost-cutting regime across Dubai Inc. His role was reduced from chief executive to adviser on a couple of low-key events. Nevertheless, Mr Attias says: "I reactivated my consultancy and put the headquarters in Dubai. I am very confident that the region and Dubai will soon be back on the front page,"

More fortunate still is Andy Blair, a construction project manager who achieved overnight fame when he scrawled his telephone number on his Porsche after being made redundant in January. Intense media interest - not to mention the wide dissemination of his contact details - allowed him to avoid the well-trodden path to Abu Dhabi or across the Gulf to Qatar. He has landed a job with a food and beverage consultancy. "People were talking about Doha or Bahrain but I'd rather poke my eyes out," says the 28-year-old Scot. Additional reporting by Michael Peel

'No taboos': emirate gets to work on boosting the labour market

The Dubai government is aiming for 3 per cent growth in the labour market this year, in spite of tough conditions, says Raed Safadi, chief economist at the city-state's department of economic development.

Previous labour force growth of more than 20 per cent will not happen this year, he says, but government reforms and the stimulus from a $10bn loan from the UAE will lead to a yearly net addition in the number of workers.

"If we manage that, we will have sheltered Dubai," he said at a conference yesterday. "So there are no taboos: we will look at every option available as we encourage the labour market."

In spite of assurances that as many as 1,000 new visas are being issued a day, the government is reviewing rules that force people to leave the country only 30 days after losing a residence visa and bans on some workers moving to competitors in the event of them losing their jobs.

The economic department is also considering support for the smaller businesses that Mr Safadi says employ up to 80 per cent of people in the private sector.

The government continues to target a real growth rate of 2.5 per cent this year, a fraction of the 15 per cent achieved during the six-year petrodollar boom."
 

Building site update

17 March 2009

Here are the latest pictures from the building site that I live on!

Update on EK A380 story

17 March 2009

Emirates has confirmed that the A380 will be suspended from the New York - JFK service from 1 June.

The JFK daily service needs 2 A380s to allow it to operate daily. The first will now be used to upgrade the three times weekly EK241/242 service to Toronto.

The second aircraft will be deployed on flights to Bangkok. It is now confirmed that this will be the daily EK372/373.

Indian airlines slow growth plans

16 March 2009

In recent briefings Emirates has been highlighting the importance of its Indian market and touting rising competition from in particular Kingfisher Airlines.

But it looks like Kingfisher is withdrawing from the international market before even making a significant start.

Vijay Mallya (Kingfisher CEO) bought Air Deccan in Dec 2007 as a way to quickly realize his ambition to fly overseas using rights that Kingfisher would gain from the merger.

But Kingfisher appears to be winding down its international plans. The airline is also trying to sub-lease two more A330 planes from its fleet to Nigerian carrier Arik Air Ltd, the Indian carrier said in a statement last fortnight. In addition all five A340s that were originally to be acquired by Kingfisher have been sold to other airlines.

Kingfisher had planned to fly to international destinations such as San Francisco, Hong Kong, Singapore, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Kuwait, among others.

The airline, including its low-cost service Kingfisher Red, currently connects Indian locations with just two foreign cities: London and Colombo.

Mumbai-headquartered Kingfisher had ordered 10 long-haul aircraft to start its international operations last year including five A340s—capable of flying routes such as Bangalore-San Francisco non-stop—and five A330s, which ply typically between India and Europe.

It sold three of the A340 planes to Arik Air last year and, after keeping two A330s grounded for at least six months in India, is now in talks to sub-lease them to the same carrier.

Two A330s are being used by Kingfisher to operate between Mumbai and London and ply the Bangalore-London route with one aircraft as a standby.

The two remaining A340 aircraft are now being sold to “government customers” in West Asia.

With no new deliveries now planned until next year, Kingfisher may restrict its international operations to London and Colombo though it can fly to West Asia (Dubai etc) and Asia-Pacific using some of the 43 medium-haul Airbus A320 in its fleet.

Besides rights to Hong Kong, Dubai and Singapore, the carrier has permission from the civil aviation ministry for flights between Bangalore-Bangkok, Mumbai-Male, Kolkata-Dhaka and Kolkata-Chittagong.

But even there the airline is going cautiously. The launch of its Dubai-Bangalore has been deferred several times since January and is now “on hold”, said an airline executive, who didn’t want to be named. The Dubai launch was expected first in January and then postponed further and removed from the reservations systems.

Another Indian airline, Jet Airways (India) Ltd has also leased out several wide-bodied aircraft in its fleet to West Asian carriers; primarily Boeing 777s to Gulf Air.

European carriers, too, are pulling flights out and airline firms such as Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd plan to pull out their flagship Mumbai-London flight from May, leaving a Delhi-London daily service as their only India operation.

The head of a New Delhi-based travel website said international demand has stagnated from and to India over the past two months after the peak season ending early January and airlines were hence being “conservative”.

The winner here - Emirates - with some 164 flights a week from India connecting into Emirates international network.

Emirates to take A380 to Toronto from June

16 March 2009

In a significant change of plans the Airbus A380 double-decker jumbo jet will be making its commercial debut in Canada this June at Toronto's Pearson International Airport when Emirates Airline will be adding the world's largest plane to its Toronto-Dubai route on June 1.

Emirates, owned by the Dubai government, launched the service three times a week in October, 2007.

The carrier said it has been seeing strong demand on the 358-seat Boeing 777 deployed on the route, so it makes sense to switch to the larger Airbus to accommodate more passengers. To be honest Toronto is probably getting the A380 because forward bookings indicate better loads to Toronto than to New York, especially during the summer months.

Dubai-based Emirates has been lobbying Ottawa for permission to increase its Toronto-Dubai service to daily flights.

"We are extremely pleased to provide the A380 for our Dubai-Toronto service, which has had consistently strong demand since the three-times weekly route was launched in October, 2007," said Emirates President Tim Clark. "In fact, the demand has been so high it will only allow Emirates to address some of the unmet need of the Toronto market," he added.

"The launch of the Dubai-Toronto A380 service means we will continue to invest in Canada, one of our most important markets. Our inaugural A380 flight to Toronto comes just after the hiring of Emirates' 500th Canadian employee. Our Canadian employees are in Canada and Dubai in positions ranging from management to pilots to cabin crew and engineers," Mr. Clark said.

"Despite the current economic difficulties, this is good news for the Canadian economy. We believe you need a long-term view. By adding this new ultra-efficient aircraft to Toronto, we are increasing trade and tourism capacity, but the three flights a week restriction remains a disappointment. We believe Toronto needs a daily A380 service and progressively, a second daily service with an aircraft like the 777," he added.

Emirates has been pushing hard (and this is a part of that effort) for greater access to the Canadian market. This has been rejected by the Canadian government in part to protect its own national carrier, Air Canada. In reality Air Canada would gain nothing through an extension of the existing bi-lateral agreement. Air Canada has no wish to fly to Dubai. Emirates is also not relying on origin and destination traffic but on flying mainly Indian passengers to Toronto.

Meanwhile Emirates has been lobbying for additional access to Toronto for a decade. Emirates has also indicated its interest in providing direct flights from Dubai to Calgary and Vancouver given the serious potential it sees for those markets.

For Toronto passengers this is a real bonus. The A380 is significantly quieter and more comfortable.

But it also means that the A380 will only fly 4 days a week to New York instead of the current 7 day schedule; suggesting that the US market is in a serious downturn.

The other winners here, Emirates (irritatingly aren't we special !!) A380 crew. They get a destination that they were not expecting and take one of the favourite layovers away from the main fleet crew.

The critical demise of the Bangkok Post

16 March 2009

It is sad to see the depths that the Bangkok Post has sunk to. Rational and balanced debate are gone. The newspaper is a myopic propaganda sheet published by supporters of the current administration.

The Times article last week (see The Irony of Abhisit below) drew a rather bizarre rebuttal in the Bangkok Post that described the Times article as  "cow manure". The Times Editor is described by the Bangkok Post as a highly intelligent individual who is guilty of intellectual dishonesty in his bid to discredit PM Abhisit.

Cow manure!  A fine example of good intelligent debate!

Worse still the Bangkok Post is pandering to those who argue that no one outside of Thailand can either understand Thailand or be entitled to publish anything even  modestly critical. Where were these self righteous editors when the foreign press were so critical of the abuses of the Thaksin regime, both on human rights issues and on business corruption?

After the 2006 coup that removed PM Thaksin the generals convened an assembly of tame delegates who rewrote the country's constitution to give Mr Abhisit's Democrats a better chance of winning.

But the leaderless pro Thaksin PPP still won the 2007 election. How does that make Abhisit's government the elected government of the people? 

Yet the Bangkok Post opinion piece today argues that "The elected representatives of the people of Thailand elected PM Abhisit, legally and legitimately. He's no more and no less legitimate than Mr Samak or Thaksin before him" and continues "To say PM Abhisit's premiership is in any way illegitimate means that you simply do not understand the working of democracy." Good old Bangkok Post; this is an argument that you hear a lot in Thailand. If you don't agree with us it is because your are ignorant.

Meanwhile Thepthai Senpong, a spokesman of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, also insisted that the government came to power democratically and is not backed by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) nor soldiers as claimed by the foreign media.

Thailand is deeply divided about Abhisit and the future governance of the nation. And this is reflected in political commentaries and discussion. However, it is a shame that the most open debate on Thai democracy has to be held in England and not in Thailand.

Prime Minister Abhisit spoke over the weekend at his Oxford College. But such an open debate could not take place in Thailand at the moment.

Giles Ungpakorn (described by the Nation as a "fugitive activist" rather than the University professor that he is) would not be able to attend the same debate in Thailand. And no Thai or foreign reporter who wished to stay out of jail would dare to stand up and ask the frank questions about lèse-majesté which the Oxford audience put on Saturday.

Abhisit did state his commitment to democracy, highlighting his commitment to transparency, good governance, respect for human rights, and rule of law. He may be a thoroughly decent man but there are other people with different agendas who will shape Thailand's political future. And those forces appear to be strengthening quickly.

Abhisit said that he wants to promote democratic debate in Thailand, but the debate is currently about Thailand rather than in Thailand. The British Ambassador to Thailand described Abhisit's Oxford speech as "a good model for future debate in Thailand."  The emphasis being on "future."

Democrats running out of political friends

16 March 2009

The next Thai election, which may come sooner than many expect - how about an autumn 2009 election, looks likely to produce another messy coalition government. The Democrats are quickly losing their political (of necessity) friends and new political parties are being formed that will give their leaders a chance to feed at the trough of power....or in Newin's case - the trough of King Power!

Firstly we have the politicisation of the friends of Newin; then we have the PAD threatening to form their own political party; and the Puea Thai party is still looking to find its own leadership given that so many of its Thaksin loyalists have been banned from politics. Newin is positioning his party as the replacement of TRT/PPP/Puea Thai in the NorthEast.

The union between the Democrats and the Friends of Newin group was never likely to last. For the moment the Democrats need Newin's MPs, for without their crucial support, especially in the parliament during a crucial debate over an important financial bill or during a censure debate scheduled for March 27-28, the coalition government will crumble like a house of cards.

That allowed the Friends of Newin to control two key ministries, Transport which is reputed to be the "money bag" for all the various infrastructure and public transport projects and the Interior Ministry for its command over local administrators across the country whose support can make a big difference in the outcome of an election.

The latest issue which has put the Democrats and the Friends of Newin at loggerheads is over the plan of Thai Airways International to move all its domestic flight services from Don Mueang to Suvarnabhumi. Mr Sohpon backed the THAI board's plan for the move scheduled on March 29, but this was opposed by the airline's union. The council of economic ministers stepped in and suggested that the board make the final decision.

But after the council's meeting, a defiant Mr Sohpon held a press conference to reconfirm his decision for THAI to end its services at Don Mueang on March 29. This was widely seen as a direct challenge to the authority of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva who suggested at the council's meeting that the crucial decision should be made by the new THAI board.

Despite the reservations from the Democrats and public suspicion of the real motives behind the decision, it seems the Friends of Newin are likely to have their way once again.

Newin and his group are working full scale to prepare for the next election under the Bhum Jai Thai Party. The new brand name is being advertised in giant cut-outs in many places in Bangkok and other provinces. The reality is that it is this group rather than the Democrat party that will control the date of the next election.
 

Blue Rodeo at the Lobero (review)
Canadian Country Rockers Play to a Sold Out Crowd
By Felicia M. Tomasko - The Santa Barbara Independent

originally published on Monday, February 23, 2009

"Canadian rockers Blue Rodeo have quite a diligent following in Santa Barbara, and their Saturday night Sings Like Hell show at the Lobero Theatre proved that once and for all. Companion act and repeat Hell raiser, Tim Easton (his prior series visit was six years ago) got the packed house riled up for an extended set that ended with the crowd on their feet and cheering. Easton’s unassuming entry belied the way his voice filled the room, starting with his opening song’s very first notes. There’s a reason why critics hail Easton as one of the best alt-country solo performers making the rounds today, and he proved to be a worthy accompaniment for Blue Rodeo. “How do you like my band?” he joked. As the lone man onstage, Easton provided his own backup by way of acoustic guitar, stomping self-produced drum rhythms, and some resonating harmonica hooks. When he introduced a song he said he’d written for Tom Waits, I couldn’t help but think what more he could have done to the tune. Easton did more than justice to every one of his poignant and eloquently crafted songs and we could have listened to him play all night.

Still, there were no complaints when Blue Rodeo filed onstage. While this was my first introduction to the band — though they did come highly recommended — the majority of the audience members could sing along with the hits. The Canadian band has been recording, touring, and winning awards for more than 20 years, and it shows. High school friends Jim Cuddy and Greg Keelor began Blue Rodeo in 1984, and their performance definitely befitted their long history together. Song after song on the band’s extended setlist featured their two voices harmonized in a way that gave both depth and texture to each of their tunes. My concert-going companion turned to me at one point and called them the “Indigo Boys,” in reference to the strength of their harmonies. The rest of the band, including original member Bazil Donovan, Bob Egan, and Glenn Milchem, exemplified what a tightly knit group should sound like, playing with relish and abandon that captured the audience throughout.

At the traditional Sings Like Hell post-show reception, Canadian and American fans descended upon the Rodeo members for photos and autographs, not wanting the celebration to end. And indeed, the night was a celebration that likely got the devil himself singing along."
 

Is Emirates unhappy with the A380?

15 March 2009

Agence-France Press is reporting that Dubai-based airline Emirates is unhappy with its first four giant Airbus A380 aircraft, which showed manufacturing faults that forced flights to be cancelled.

The German weekly Der Spiegel, in its issue to be published tomorrow, said Emirates in February gave Airbus officials a 46-page report listing its complaints, including burned electric cables, missing cabin fittings and engine defects. Emirates’ officials said breakdowns had grounded the airline’s A380s for 500 hours, the magazine reported.

A source close to Airbus told AFP on Thursday that Emirates was seeking a delay in the delivery of several of the long-haul A380 super jumbo jets because of financing difficulties.

The airline is Airbus's biggest customer for the double-decker A380, having ordered 58 of them.

"Emirates could delay deliveries on several planes ... They are in talks" with Airbus, the source said on condition of anonymity.

Emirate "is beginning to have problems for the first time. We always relied on this type of company as a major stable client," the source said.

A spokeswoman for Airbus said discussions with clients were confidential.

And in Dubai an Emirates spokesperson said: "We had a routine meeting with Airbus to discuss aircraft delivery positions down the line. Like all airlines, Emirates continues to assess all options for its fleet and route operations."

It maybe that complaints about the four planes delivered to date are one way of agreeing a new delivery schedule with Airbus with minimal financial penalty. With a further 54 A380s on order it would be no surprise to see Emirates seeking to delay acceptance of some of the airplanes; probably not this year but from 2010 onwards.

Reinforcing the rules in Dubai

14 March 2009

Is there a crackdown coming in Dubai? Is there to be a return to more conservative behaviour and an end to years of tolerance? This appears to only be a restatement of existing and known rules but it maybe that the authorities believe that the rules need to be re-stated to support local culture and behaviour.

Playing loud music, dancing, nudity, kissing and even holding hands in public is considered inappropriate behavior under new guidelines laid down by the authorities of Dubai, according to a press report on Saturday.

Dubai Executive Council issued a list of public behaviors that requires Dubai residents and visitors to respect the customs of the Muslim country and avoid what the council considers inappropriate behavior, according to the Arabic-language daily Al Emarat Al-Youm.

The rules, which apply to all public places, include a ban on all forms of nudity, playing music loudly and dancing, exchange of kisses between men and women—and even on unmarried couples holding hands.

Any breach of the guidelines, by nationals or expatriates, carries a possible prison penalty, the paper wrote.

The order also requires all visitors of public places, such as government buildings, shopping malls, streets and restaurants to dress in “appropriate” clothing, otherwise they would be denied entrance to those areas.

“Pants and skirts have to be of appropriate length, and outside clothing should not expose body parts indecently and should not be transparent,” the guidelines stipulate under section “public behavior,” Al Emarat Al-Youm wrote.

In addition, the council ordered that anyone caught under the influence of alcohol—even a small amount—outside designated drinking areas is liable to being fined or imprisoned, the paper added.

Do not believe reports of Dubai's demise

14 March 2009

This is one of he more sensible and balanced of recent articles about Dubai - published originally in the Financial Times last week.The writer, a fellow at the New America Foundation, was a Dubai-based correspondent for Reuters and is working on a study of hub cities

By Afshin Molavi - Financial Times

"Dubai must feel a little like Mark Twain, these days. Upon reading his own obituary in the newspaper, Twain wrote: “The report of my death was an exaggeration.”

Dubai has had its share of obituaries as it suffers from a property bust and contagion from the global credit crisis. Headlines from Cairo to London to New York, laced with schadenfreude, proclaim its demise. Newsweek said simply: “Goodbye, Dubai.”

The emirate is certainly stumbling. Many of its state-owned entities drown in debt. Several high-profile property projects have wilted under tight credit, debt and corruption. Its stock market has been in free-fall. Many of its top officials, who once swaggered on the world stage, now skulk in denial.

Still, news of Dubai’s death has been greatly exaggerated. Its fundamentals as a regional hub of shipping, services, people, trade and capital have not changed. “Disneyland Dubai has crashed,” as one Dubai-based banker put it, referring to headline-grabbing property projects, “but the core business model of Dubai remains sound.”

That business model predates modern financial markets and the hyper-globalisation of today. It is not about lavish hotels, skyscrapers and man-made islands in the sea. It is a simple model, reflected in the statement of Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed al-Maktoum, the late ruler of Dubai: “What’s good for the merchants is good for Dubai.” Creating a hub for merchants has been an al-Maktoum family tradition for more than a century. And it is those merchants and migrants, dreamers and entrepreneurs, who built Dubai, who deserve equal credit for its rise and who will help it grow again.

This openness to foreign talent will support Dubai as it faces today’s crisis. Speculators will leave but plenty will ride out the storm, including Arab professionals who have chosen Dubai as the place to achieve their dreams and middle-class Indian mid-level managers who make the city work.

To understand why Dubai will survive, it is important to understand its commercial geography. It is not solely an Arab state – demographically or commercially. It is a commercial and tourist hub for a region that encompasses the growing markets of south Asia, emerging Africa, oil-rich Russia and the Gulf states, Iran, central Asia and the Caucasus, Europe and China. And it works largely because of the heavy infrastructure investment made by Dubai’s rulers and the expatriate traders, service professionals, construction workers, bankers and techies who make up 90 per cent of the population.

Dubai was never, as one newspaper called it, “The Middle East’s economic powerhouse.” Rather, it was and remains a highly successful entrepôt in one of the richest and fastest-growing parts of the world. Like most entrepôts, it feeds from and fuels growth. Dubai companies, for example, have substantively improved east Africa’s transport infrastructure and DP World manages ports in 49 countries.

Though Dubai is racked by debt – $70bn of it – much of that comes from massive infrastructure projects that have positioned it well for the future. Infrastructure spending is old hat in Dubai. When Sheikh Rashid built the Jebel Ali port in 1979, to much criticism, he made a big bet – and won. Today, Jebel Ali helps place Dubai among the 10 largest container terminal port cities in the world. When Sheikh Rashid chose to take on a big loan in the late 1950s to dredge the Dubai creek to allow for larger ships, he was panned. It worked. The ships came, and so did the merchants. The pre-oil emirate grew and flourished.

The same can be said of its airports, airlines, telecommunications and broadband networks, metro system and expanded highways. There is no city within striking distance of challenging Dubai as a hub in a region that extends beyond the Arab world to 1.5bn people. Its airport is among the 10 busiest for international passenger traffic. It is also among the world’s top 15 air cargo hubs.

Dubai’s property bubble popped. Its hubris also (thankfully) popped. Its core business model, however, did not. Property corrections and over-leveraged state entities can be fixed. Becoming a poor environment for trade would be far more dangerous. When the world growth engine restarts, city-states such as Dubai will flourish. In the meantime, Dubai will serve as a vital, if somewhat clogged, artery in world trade. The battered but still battling hub city will rise again."

I wish I was there......

14 March 2009

Tobiano Golf Club near Kamloops in British Columbia's Okanagan Valley was rated the best new golf course in Canada in 2008. And who needs words; these pictures say everything.

But some things never change

14 March 2009

As I was writing the comments below on the changing face of Singapore I was also reviewing today's news; and sadly something never change: The Singapore government is reported today to be taking legal action against a senior editor of the Wall Street Journal, accusing her of being in contempt of court for three articles published last year.

The newspaper said Justice Tay Yong Kwang granted an application by the Attorney-General to start proceedings against Melanie Kirkpatrick, the deputy editor of the New York-based financial daily's editorial page.

The newspaper, citing court documents, said the government was initiating proceedings against her for "actions which resulted in the publication and distribution' of articles that contained passages that scandalise the Singapore judiciary".

The articles were published in June and July last year in the editorials and opinion section of the Asian edition of the WSJ, the Straits Times said. The Wall Street Journal is published by Dow Jones & Co, which is owned by News Corp's. Dow Jones officials were not immediately available to comment.

The first article was an editorial on Singapore's democracy, arising out of a hearing in May last year to assess damages that Singapore Democratic Party chief Chee Soon Juan and others had to pay Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew for libel.

The second was a letter from Dr Chee in reply to a rebuttal of that editorial by MM Lee's press secretary.

The third article was another editorial, on the International Bar Association's Human Rights Institute's report on the Singapore judiciary.

Last November, Justice Tay found, among other things, that the articles alleged bias and lack of independence on the part of the judiciary.

The move comes almost four months after a Singapore court found the Wall Street Journal in contempt of court for publishing the same three articles, and fined it S$25,000 ($16,580).

Singapore leaders have won damages, settlements and apologies in the past from foreign media groups when they reported on local politics, including The Economist, the Far Eastern Economic Review, Bloomberg News and the Financial Times.

Changing for better in Singapore?

14 March 2009

There is something changing in Singapore; the business like city state used to talk of free-trade agreements and strengthening regional economic ties;  but the new Singapore has a new focus; art exhibitions, jazz bands, museums and alfresco dining.

Much of this is focused on the new Marina Bay development where electric golf buggies will whiz by diners as they gaze from the water's edge upon the "sailing, boating, windsurfing and fishing."

Never short of ambition,  Singapore aspires to be "a tropical version" of New York, Paris and London all in one. The Marina development was described by Minister Mentor Lee Kwan Yew as "like the St. Mark's Piazza in Venice."

But Marina Bay is just one part of a government-orchestrated effort to change the face of Singapore. The financial district will have a striking new skyline while casinos and other amusements will dot the city.

Despite the huge impact of the current recession on Singapore these new developments will continue; the timetable may be slowed down.

Even sleepy Sentosa Island, a 500-hectare tourist hangout located 15 minutes from the city center, is slated for overhaul via a 10-year, $5 billion plan to turn it into a world-class playground for the wealthy, with multimillion-dollar seafront homes, a megayacht marina and a Universal Studios theme park.

All of this is aimed to change Singapore's image as a prosperous but rather dull commercial hub into that of a vibrant, fun destination—a place people will want to live in or at least visit on holiday, not merely transit on their way to more exotic Southeast Asian locales such as Bangkok and Bali.

Faced with challenging long-term economic prospects and a flagging birth rate, Singapore's leaders determined that the future of its 4.4 million citizens depended upon attracting multinational corporations along with hundreds of thousands of ambitious, educated (and preferably wealthy) foreigners to work and live there.

The demographic problem is an interesting one that may in fact be helped by the current recession. For years younger Singaporeans have sought employment overseas. Those who stay in Singapore are having fewer children. At the current birth rate, the population will begin to shrink in 2020. And that portends stagnating economic growth and a declining standard of living.

The solution has been to open the gates to immigration. The city aims to boost its population by 25% to 6.5 million over the next few decades. Due to the flagging birth rate, that goal can be reached only by admitting up to 1 million foreigners, more than doubling the current expat population.

The current recession has impacted many of the foreign workers who have come to Singapore; but many are staying as they see opportunities in the city that are not available in their home countries. Also fewer Singaporeans see better opportunities overseas.

To bring in foreigners requires not just good jobs and decent housing but also a lifestyle that makes Singapore an attractive place to stay. 

The government for years has been trying to liven up the place. In 2002 nightclubs were allowed for the first time to remain open around the clock. In 2007 despite some considerable public objection, gambling was legalized. The government subsequently struck deals with major gaming companies to build two casino/resort developments, each costing about $4 billion.

One casino is located on a 24-hectare strip of land on the southern shore of Marina Bay, not far from the city's growing financial district at the mouth of the Singapore River. Las Vegas Sands is developing the city's first integrated resort, scheduled to be completed by the end of this year. Beyond gambling, the Marina Bay Sands—composed of three nearly identical 50-story towers—will offer 2,500 hotel rooms, 93,000 sq m of convention space, two theaters, an ice-skating rink, shops and restaurants. The revitalized waterfront already has the world's tallest Ferris wheel.

Singapore also showcases itself through the first night formula one grand prix first held to great success last year. A new art-and-science museum is being built near the Marina Bay Sands. Designed by renowned Israeli architect Moshe Safdie, the aim is to create as distinctive a landmark as the Sydney Opera House.

The other casino, to be developed by Malaysia's Genting International, will stand on Sentosa Island, which is connected by bridge, light rail and cable car to the main island. On Sentosa thirteen hotels containing about 3,500 rooms are planned, providing lodging for tourists drawn to the beaches, the casino and a Universal Studios theme park, which is also being built by Genting International and is planned to open in 2010.

Singapore has continued to try and diversify its economy by encouraging new sectors; biotechnology, education, and private banking and finance. World-class educational institutions such as INSEAD and Johns Hopkins University have established Singapore campuses. The city-state also became the largest hub for private banking outside Zurich although in this recession that may not be much of an advantage.

Many Singaporeans fear that the legalization of gambling will increase crime and other social ills. With the recession there is also additional anxiety over ambitious efforts to boost immigration. Singaporeans fear losing their jobs to foreign professionals.

In Singapore foreigners now make up about 19% of the city's population, in contrast with Hong Kong, where expats make up less than 8% of all residents. People worry about the potential to sacrifice its national identity for economic growth. But in reality this may be a story about survival. Without new industry; new skills and new immigrants the Singapore that has been so successfully built over the last 40 years could wither and die.
 

The irony of Abhisit

13 March 2009

The Thai Prime Minister is giving a speech at his old Oxford University college tomorrow - entitled "Taking on the Challenges of Democracy." Such wonderful irony.

The Asia Editor of the Times of London sums up the irony in a strong article in today's Times noting that "the greatest “challenge” of democracy for Mr Abhisit has been as simple as that - whenever they have been given a chance to elect him, Thai voters have chosen someone else."

The Times article describes Prime Minister Abhisit as "handsome, youthful, brilliant, cosmopolitan, impeccably well mannered and rather posh" but continues "Mr Abhisit's charm should not be a distraction from ugly truths about what is happening in Thailand. In the past four years, it has gone from being one of the most free and stable countries of South-East Asia to one of its most chaotic and divided."

The full Times article may be read here:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5897588.ece

What Abhisit should never forget, despite his attempts to argue his legitimacy, is that for most Thais - กูไม่ได้เลือกมึง.

The Economist on a class apart

12 March 2009 - originally published on 2 February 2009

Nothing new in this article in the Economist but after three flights in the USA this month and then flights to and from on the USA on Emirates I can confirm its accuracy. Add to that the rude and invasive US security and you have the most unpleasant of travel experiences.

"Consider two recent flights, both long haul into London.

Flight A. The plane looks new. Service begins with hot towels and distribution of a menu, and remains attentive throughout. The meals are copious and excellent. With a 600-channel entertainment system and a good headset, time passes quickly. A socket on the back of the seat in front enables you to keep personal electronic devices powered throughout. The effort to please and accommodate the passengers' needs is obvious in every detail.

Flight B. The plane is old. There is no personal entertainment system, but a single film on central screens. Passengers have to pay for the headsets. The food is barely edible, the cabin service minimal: breakfast—a heated bun—is literally thrown down on some seats. And the seating is about as cramped as on Ryanair. If any thought has been given to pleasing passengers, it is not obvious—though plenty has clearly been given to cost-cutting.

If you imagined that Flight A was in business class and Flight B in economy, you would be wrong. Both were in economy. Flight A was with Emirates and Flight B with US Airways.

Now, you clearly can't complain about the skills of US Airways' pilots, who can land an Airbus safely on the Hudson river. Unfortunately, when it comes to service rather than safety, it's another story—and the US Airways flight is all too typical of many American carriers. Domestic flights are even worse than the international ones: stuffy, corners cut and not so much as a complimentary cola.

The recession will surely make the experience of flying on American carriers even grimmer. And the gulf between the third-world service they offer and the customer-friendly flights of Emirates, Singapore Airlines and the like will grow."

The X factor

12 March 2009

AirAsia subsidiary, the longhaul LCC, AirAsia X (for extra long), started five times weekly A340-300 service between Kuala Lumpur and London Stansted yesterday.

The two A340s being utilised for the route are configured with 256 economy seats, with a seat pitch of 31.8 inches, and 30 "XL" seats, with 60-inch seat pitch.

AirAsia has also launched a UK version of its web site.

With a standard fare well below half the level of most of its longhaul competitors and almost giveaway introductory fares the airline aims to revolutionise travel between Australasia/Southeast Asia and London. At a minimum it is seeking to take convert existing Air Asia customers into long haul customers.

The airline will also operate cargo service carrying approximately 8,000 kg of cargo per flight. IAM, Network Cargo Services, FlyUs, Global Cargo Management and ACT is acting as the carrier's cargo sales agents in Western Europe, with cargo handling at London Stansted will be carried out by Aviance.

AirAsia X benefits from a level of traffic feed which has been absent from other longhaul, low cost operations which have failed in recent months such as Hong Kong based OASIS. This should provide it with greater resilience than the other models. Its part ownership by Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group also provides a certain level of underpinning.

AirAsia, its sister airline, flies to 122 short-haul destinations in Asia, although passengers must make separate bookings. And then there's the Australian connection. AirAsia X flies to Perth, Melbourne and the Gold Coast from Kuala Lumpur.

AirAsia X launched its first service in Nov-07 to Australia's Gold Coast, using a leased A330. It has since launched Hangzhou (Feb-08), Perth (Nov-08) and Melbourne (Nov-08) services.

The carrier has ordered 25 A330-300s, the first of which was introduced on the Melbourne route.

At the London end, the carrier also plans to spin off the high number of LCC services (Ryanair and others) based out of Stansted in order to support its Europe-originating sectors.

The downside in Kuala Lumpur is that flights will leave and arrive from the truly, truly awful low cost terminal. Be prepared for a most unpleasant experience. If you are transfering to another flight you will need to clear immigration; collect your baggage and check back in again.  Hardly convenient. And if you are transfering to the main KL terminal expect a long, long bus ride.

In many ways the airline could not be starting at a worse time, with a global recession. But on the other hand, heightened consumer pricing sensitivity, combined with lower fuel prices, could be precisely the model that responds to consumer needs.

Monkey see, monkey do?

12 March 2009

A Japanese researcher has observed Thai monkeys showing their young how to floss - proof that primates teach offspring to use tools.

"I was surprised because teaching techniques on using tools properly to a third party are said to be an activity carried out only by humans,'' Professor Nobuo Masataka of Kyoto University's Primate Research Institute said yesterday.

His research team observed seven female long-tailed macaques and their offspring and monitored how often the mothers cleaned the spaces between their teeth with strands of human hair, in a colony of 250 animals near Bangkok. Why are they using human hair and where does that come from ?

The study found that the frequency of teeth-cleaning roughly doubled and became more elaborate when the infant monkeys were watching, suggesting that the females were deliberately teaching their young how to floss, he said.

"The study is still at the hypothesis stage,'' Masataka cautioned.

"We would like to shift our focus to the baby monkeys to check whether the mothers' actions are effectively helping them learn how to clean their teeth.''

Is this a new market for Colgate ?


Qantas and Etihad to take on Emirates

12 March 2009

Qantas and Etihad yesterday announced a strategic alliance and codeshare agreement that will allow the two carriers to compete with Emirates dominant position in the Middle East to Australia market.

The deal was well received in Australia where Qantas shares jumped 8 per cent yesterday.

The deal to share reservation codes on selected flights gives Qantas entry to the growing Middle Eastern markets while providing Abu Dhabi's Etihad with a welcome Australian domestic feed.

The announcement addresses a weakness in Qantas' network that Emirates has aggressively exploited in an area also serviced by several Asian competitors.

Qantas executive general manager John Borghetti described the agreement as a significant strategic development for the airline.

He said it would allow the airline for the first time to offer direct access to multiple points in the Middle East from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

The deal allows Qantas to codeshare on 21 weekly Etihad services between Australia and Abu Dhabi from March 29.

Qantas passengers will be able to earn frequent flyer points on 11 weekly non-stop flights from Sydney, seven weekly non-stop flights from Melbourne and three operating from Brisbane via Singapore. Codehare connections will also be available on Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi to Amman, Beirut and Bahrain.

Etihad will initially place its EY code on selected Qantas domestic services operating between Adelaide and Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney and Cairns and Sydney. It will also codeshare on daily Qantas flights from Melbourne to Auckland.

Both Mr Borghetti and Etihad chief executive James Hogan see good prospects for further expanding the relationship.

Mr Hogan said Australia represented a key market for the airline and one in which it was keen to grow further. He said there was a good product and network fit between the two airlines and both were committed to a deepening strategic relationship.

"This is the first stage of a strategic relationship and for the Australian traveller, either leisure or business, we fly to 55 cities and that's going to give the consumer greater choice," he said.

Mr Hogan said Eithad had avoided joining major alliances in favour of strong bilateral alliances. He said eventually he would like to see a network-wide codeshare on both partners.

Etihad is due to the launch its new daily Melbourne service at the end of March.

Could this relationship go further; is there a potential merger here. The Australian ownership rules ban foreigners from owning more than 49% of any Australian airline but after the BA/Qantas talks collapsed there may be potential for Etihad to take a significant operating stake in Qantas.

Qatar's 2009 expansion plan

11 March 2009

With huge losses at Cathay Pacific and capacity reductions at Singapore Airlines the strongest competition faced by Emirates Airline comes from its westerly neighbour, Qatar Airways and Qatar today announced plans to launch scheduled flights to Australia and further expand its operations in India and Europe with new routes from the start of the Northern Winter 2009 schedules.

Flights to the Australian cities of Sydney and Melbourne, together with new services to Goa and Amritsar in India, and two new European services are being planned over the next nine months.

In addition, the Doha-based carrier will increase frequency to selected destinations across its global network from the beginning of the Northern Summer 2009 schedules on March 29.

Subject to regulatory approval, the long-awaited Australian services will become reality as more Boeing 777-200 Long Range aircraft join the fleet.

Amritsar, located in the rich northwestern Indian agricultural heartland of Punjab State, is home to the Golden Temple – the spiritual and cultural centre of the Sikh religion. Together with the popular beach holiday state of Goa, the two new routes will boost Qatar Airways’ Indian capacity from nine to 11 destinations.

Qatar Airways will also step up its European presence with two new routes, which are currently being finalised. Details will be announced in due course. The airline’s first new route launch of 2009 will be daily flights between Doha and Houston.

In addition to the route expansion, Qatar Airways is gradually stepping up capacity from March 29 to eight cities – Geneva, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Lagos, Muscat, Mashad (Iran), Tunis and Algiers. The frequency increases will see the Philippines capital of Manila being served with two daily flights, up from the current 11 services a week; Nigeria’s commercial capital of Lagos going from five services a week to daily; and capacity to the Omani capital of Muscat rising from 15 to 21 flights a week.

Qatar Airways currently operates a modern fleet of 68 Airbus and Boeing aircraft to 83 diverse business and leisure destinations across Europe, Middle East, Africa, South Asia, Far East and North America.

With the opening of the New Doha International Airport scheduled for 2012, Qatar Airways plans to increase its global network to beyond 100 cities worldwide.

Its T2 for flydubai

11 March 2009

Dubai's first low cost airline, flydubai, announced today that it will operate from Terminal 2 at Dubai International Airport, when it begins its services later this year.

flydubai said it was on schedule to take off with the launch of its first routes mid-2009 without giving a specific date.

The carrier will operate a fleet of Boeing aircraft, each offering 189 economy class seats. Launch routes will be announced shortly and will include a range of destinations within four and a half hours flying time of Dubai.

Tibet under blockade - 50 years of occupation

11 March 2009

My Chinese friends will have a different view of history but this week marks the 50th anniversary of the failed uprising in Tibet and the beginning of the Dalai Lama's exile in India.

Yesterday the Dalai Lama warned that Tibetan culture and identity were "nearing extinction."

In an unusually forceful speech to thousands of supporters in India, he accused Beijing of bringing "hell on Earth" to the region at times through periods of martial law and hardline policies such as the cultural revolution.

"These thrust Tibetans into such depths of suffering and hardship that they literally experienced hell on earth," he said, adding that the policies had caused hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Tensions remained high this week, with Tibet and largely Tibetan areas in nearby provinces under a security lockdown. Foreign reporters and visitors are currently banned from Tibet as the authorities fear a repeat of last year's riots which marked the most serious Tibetan unrest for decades.

The Dalai Lama did insist that any change must come peacefully, adding: "I have no doubt that the justice of [the] Tibetan cause will prevail if we continue to tread a path of truth and non-violence."

China accuses the Dalai Lama of seeking independence and fomenting unrest in the region, but he repeated today that he seeks meaningful autonomy under Chinese rule.

He said the two sides needed to work together to find a way forward.

In an editorial, the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Communist party, extolled Tibet's development over the last 50 years in an editorial.

"Nobody hopes to go backwards in history, and only a few slave owners dwell on the life that once was," the paper said.

"Tibet's happiness today is the happiness of the people, not that of the slave owners."

The Tibet governor, Qiangba Puncog, said the Dalaim Lama's claims about Tibetan deaths were "merely fabrication and vilification", according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Officials argue that China has improved life in the region for many. But last year, peaceful protests in Lhasa to mark the anniversary of the 1959 uprising erupted into violent anti-Chinese riots.

The authorities say 22 people died, mostly because of rioters, while Tibetan exiles allege that more than 200 Tibetans died in the crackdown, which came after unrest flared across nearby Chinese provinces.

The Associated Press today cited witnesses reporting an increased paramilitary presence in Lhasa.

Living in exile, the 14th Dalai Lama is still seen as the face and voice of the Tibetans but, more emotively, he is a religious leader with a huge appeal to people of no definite religious belief. With his quirky humour and sermons conducted in broken English in which he emphasises love and compassion, he can reach across borders and draw enormous crowds.

But in reality there is little support for a free Tibet int the west.

Many Tibetans retain a deep, hidden reverence for the Dalai Lama, despite Beijing's vicious campaigns against him; but they also know that the battle for independence was lost many decades ago.

While China has liberalised since the end of the Maoist era, the "minority" regions of Tibet and Xinjiang remain under close supervision, and in urban areas people are still obliged to spy on their neighbours. At present, the country is closed to outsiders.

Over the last year, there have been repeated small-scale protests by Tibetans, which have been suppressed brutally, and it remains difficult to obtain accurate information about everyday life. Foreign journalists who wish to report from the country either have to work under heavy restriction or rely on Tibetan refugees.

Although the Tibetan cause regularly brings out protesters in London, Washington, Berlin and Paris, it has little sympathy on the streets of China's cities even among those who are otherwise unsympathetic to the Communist party.

The ageing Dalai Lama continues to shuttle the globe selling the cause of Tibet and attracting sympathy and admiration rather than substantive political backing. Should Beijing decide to reach out and try to cut a deal with the exiles, it is likely to be in the post-Dalai Lama era.

At present, it is not easy to see a happy outcome to the impasse between the Chinese and the Tibetans. Road building, power projects and nationalist propaganda have not won the hearts and minds of many in the Tibet Autonomous Region. Beijing knows it can put down any rebellion with force, while the Tibetans realise that, to use a traditional phrase, open revolt would be like throwing an egg against a rock. In the meantime, the hardships of many Tibetans will continue.

Chinese navy's naked aggression

10 March 2009

With America's new President fully focused on domestic economy issues it is time for the Chinese to test the waters of US foreign policy. An on Sunday five Chinese vessels shadowed and aggressively maneuvered close to the USNS Impeccable close to Hainan Island in the South China Sea.

US Pentagon officials say that their ship was 70 miles south of Hainan Island conducting routine operations in international waters when the ships approached.

In a carefully understated message the US said “we view these as unprofessional maneuvers by the Chinese vessels and violations under international law to operate with due regard for the rights and safety of other lawful users of the ocean.”

A civilian crew mans the ship, which operates under the auspices of the Military Sealift Command.

The incident apparently began as the ships surrounded the Impeccable and two craft closed to within 50 feet. The Chinese ships included a Chinese navy intelligence collection ship, a Bureau of Maritime Fisheries patrol vessel, a State Oceanographic Administration patrol vessel and two small Chinese-flagged trawlers.

Crewmen aboard the Impeccable (which has no weapons of its own) used fire hoses to spray one of the vessels as a protective measure. Apparently the Chinese crewmembers disrobed to their underwear and continued closing to within 25 feet. That is dangerously close.

The Chinese vessels then dropped pieces of wood in the water directly in the Impeccable’s path, and two of the ships stopped directly in the U.S. vessel’s path, forcing it to come to an emergency stop.

The US also alleges that the Chinese used poles in an attempt to snag the Impeccable’s towed acoustic array sonars. The Impeccable requested a safe path to navigate.

The incident was the culmination of earlier harassment. A Chinese patrol vessel shined a high-intensity spotlight March 4 on the USNS Victorious operating in the Yellow Sea 125 miles from China’s coast. Chinese maritime aircraft “buzzed” the ship 12 times March 5.

A Chinese frigate crossed the bow of the Impeccable at a range of about 100 yards March 5. Maritime aircraft buzzed the ship after that incident.

Another Chinese ship challenged Impeccable over bridge-to-bridge radio March 7, calling its operations illegal and directing the American ship to leave the area or “suffer the consequences,” officials said.

The Impeccable is one of six surveillance ships that gather underwater acoustical data, Whitman said. U.S. ships routinely operate in the area.

The risk (similar to the air incident over Hainan in 2001) is of a serious collision at sea, endangering vessels and the lives of U.S. and Chinese seamen.

The US embassy officials have lodged a protest against these actions with the Foreign Ministry in China, and Defense Department officials have protested with the Chinese embassy in Washington.

Meanwhile Foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said US complaints that five Chinese vessels had harassed the USNS Impeccable were "totally inaccurate".

China had asked the US to stop these activities immediately, he said.

Meanwhile this simple incident sent oil prices us US$3 a barrel. Why? Half the world's merchant traffic by tonnage passes through the South China Sea, carrying two-thirds of it is crude oil. Whoever controls sea passage through the South China Sea has power over some of the largest and fastest growing economies in the world. And it is this which makes even a water fight a matter not only of local, but of international concern.

Emirates still seeking Canada expansion

10 March 2009 - Vancouver Sun

"The slump in international air travel has many airlines cutting capacity in a hurry. But Dubai-based Emirates Airlines is sticking to a contrarian plan to increase its traffic by 14 per cent in 2009, mainly by focusing on destinations taking less of a hit from the global economic downturn.

It desperately wants to include Vancouver, and is positioning itself as the new poster child for widening access to Canadian skies.

In doing so, it is following in the footsteps of Singapore Airlines, which fought unsuccessfully for 20 years to increase the number of times or ways it could fly into Vancouver. The battle drew in many B.C. bureaucrats and businesspeople who want to expand Asia-Pacific trade. Basically, if you don't have a slew of flights, you can't get a solid flow of people and goods, they said.

Now that tough economic times have abruptly forced Singapore Airlines to drop Vancouver completely, Emirates Airlines is stepping up to take on the cause.

The airline currently runs three direct flights from Toronto Pearson to Dubai every week. It would like to bump that up to daily service, and include Calgary and Vancouver as well. So far, however, it is being rebuffed by Transport Canada, according to Dubai-based senior vice-president Andrew Parker.

Transport Canada spokeswoman Maryse Durette has said federal transport policy allows a total of six flights a week to the United Arab Emirates, split between two UAE carriers, Emirates Airline and Etihad Airways. It believes this is enough to serve the existing demand.

Emirates Airlines' Parker, however, isn't convinced, and points to examples elsewhere.

"The situation seems very absurd, considering that we have 63 flights a week into a host of cities in Australia, compared to just three into Toronto," he said.

For many airlines, it is very difficult to justify the cost of serving a destination unless costs can be spread wider than just a few flights a week. "We have to set up an office, base staff, spend money on marketing," he said.

Some B.C. businesspeople are also frustrated.

"We are constantly talking about trying to be this Pacific Gateway, but then we make it difficult for carriers to come to Vancouver," said Bruno Mansueto, owner of Richmond-based Worldwide Animal Travel. His business moves live cargo, mostly pets, from all over North America to cities around the world.

"Most of my business is into Europe, the South Pacific, and the Middle East, and I depend on foreign carriers serving Vancouver. It is our hub," said Mansueto.

B.C. is actively engaging Ottawa on the topic, according to Ida Chong, the provincial minister responsible for the Asia-Pacific initiative.

"The premier has been working pretty persistently with the prime minister in trying to get an 'open skies' policy that will allow B.C. to play an important role as a Pacific province. We need to allow more people to land here," said Chong, who added that airlines from other cities such Guangzhou in southern China also want more access.

"Once they land here, they can see the opportunities here and bring new ones. We have an airport. People want to invest. We want to build upon this."

Meanwhile, Parker acknowledged that just as Asia-Pacific markets such as Singapore have been hard-hit, Dubai's economy is also struggling. However, judging by Singapore Airlines' experience in trying to get more flights to Vancouver, he anticipates that this fight could take at least a few years.

"We are looking at the long-term opportunities and don't want to give up our advocacy because of the current downturn," he said."

Note - Emirates is also using its website to lobby for greater access to Canada.

Singapore revisited

9 March 2009

It is almost three years since I was last in Singapore and nine years since I lived in the city.

Singapore has continued to grow over the years; the city state is far more crowded than I remember and there are new condominiums and developments throughout the city. The population is now close to 5 million.

A read of the dreadful Straits Times is much like reading the Dubai media. Non-critical editorial coverage supported by endless adverts for the property and retail sectors.

It is still a city that provokes a very mixed reaction in me. I like being in the tropics. I like the greenery; the smells; I like being able to walk around this compact city and look at buildings old and new. I like the muggy, humid night air.

If you like to eat and shop; then this is a city that you will love; over the weekend the malls are full and new malls are still being built and opened; with older malls renovated to compete.

But there is still a sense that everyone in Singapore has to conform; to fit into this structured, rule-driven society. There is little animation on the faces of people on the streets.

The 2 year old National National Museum of Singapore fits this conformity and it is such a shame. It is a nice building but the conversion has made it a hermetically sealed, air conditioned, sterile hospital like structure. You are expected to take and listen to a tape player to see the exhibits and to be told Singapore history in teh way that the government wants you to know its history. There is no room for dissenting voice.

You are expected to see the exhibits in the order and importance dictated by someone else rather than your own personal choice and interpretation. There is no sense of the heat, the smells, the sounds of Singapore. Sterile is the only work for it.

The Images of Singapore Museum on Sentosa is much more fun and has many and better exhibits.

Of course the one thing that makes Singapore work is not even mentioned in the museum. Air Conditioning. If there was no a-c there would be no modern Singapore. The same applies to modern Dubai.

As always Singapore always seems to try too hard to sell its image and is too sensitive to comment or critique. We are told with pride that Singapore has the highest literacy rate of the ASEAN nations - well of course it does. It is a small city state without a massive rural less educated rural population.

Indeed so much of what is frustrating about Dubai is here in Singapore; the similarities between the two city based societies are quite strong.

It is hard to tell how badly this global recession has hit Singapore. It should be bad but business still seems reasonably strong. There appear to be few of the closures that are hitting western retail sectors. And Singapore has only limited domestic manufacturing.

After all this city-state was the house globalisation built. When trade boomed, Singapore's port, at the crossroads of East and West, became a hub for freighters and supertankers.

Singapore grew due to the unprecedented global mobility of goods, services, investment and labour. But with world trade plummeting for the first time since 1982, the port has become a maritime parking lot in recent weeks.

The impact has also hit Singapore Airlines which has reacted quickly with significant cuts in capacity.

Just like Dubai thousands of foreign workers, including western graduates and Bangladeshi labourers are streaming home as the economy suffers the worst recession in South-East Asia.

Singapore is an epicentre of what analysts call a new flow of reverse migration away from hard-hit economies, including Dubai and Britain, that were once beacons for foreign labour. Economists from Credit Suisse predict an exodus of 200,000 foreigners — or one in every 15 workers here — by the end of 2010.

Singapore's exports collapsed by a stunning 35 per cent in January, mirroring much of the rest of Asia. Adding to growing fears of a years-long depression for exports is a rising tide of trade protectionism in countries including neighbouring Indonesia.

At the moment this gloom is not readily apparent. Singapore's reserves are deep and as in the USA public spending will be used to sustain employment. In addition Singapore is able to develop new businesses that should sustain its tourism industry and provide new employment. Last year the city held its first Formula One race; and by the end of this year the first of two casinos will open; one on the new Singapore Marina development and the other on Sentosa. Both are aimed at bringing new visitors to the city although the casino developments are controversial among some conservatives.

And does it rain here !!! Such a huge storm this morning !!! And the sun will probably be out later !! 

Pakistan's continuing decline into chaos

7 March 2009

Last Tuesday's brazen attack on a convoy of visiting Sri Lankan cricketers in the heart of Lahore was the latest example of Pakistan's slide into violence and terrorism.

In a country where governance, economic development and security have gone backwards with each passing year, the Pakistan cricket team was the one place where 160 million people sought pride, joy and refuge. 

The attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team has ended all that for now. No sports team will take the risk of going to Pakistan now. The 2011 World Cup, due to be co-hosted here, will be taken away. To be honest, it has to be. No one should be asked to or expected to play there.

Leisure pursuits are few in Muslim Pakistan.  International cricket goes a long way to filling the entertainment gap. Cricket is an obsession. The head of the Pakistan cricket board is appointed by the president of the country and is answerable only to him.

There is an argument that says now is the time to support Pakistani cricket. The Australians stayed in England after the July bombings in London; the English team went back to India after the 26/11 attack in Mumbai.

But this was an attack on the visiting Sri Lankan cricket players and the match officials. Not since the 1972 Munich Olympics have athletes been specifically targeted - and the ramifications of yesterday's attack spread just as wide.

No group has claimed responsibility for the actions of 14 masked and heavily armed men who arrived in rickshaws and all escaped. But the similarities with the attack in Mumbai which claimed 170 lives are evident and legion, and the possibility that the second major headline-grabbing hit could be the work of a hardline Islamist organisation like Lashkar-e-Taiba, on which Pakistan has only just started to crack down, is obvious.

The most depressing part of the fall-out from the attack are the Pakistani denials. Chris Broad the match referee is getting the most flak. Here is a man who was closer to death than anyone should ever be. Yet the former Pakistan captain Javed Miandad has urged the International Cricket Council to impose a life ban on match referee Chris Broad for his comments after the attack.

Broad emerged unhurt from the attack, but six policemen and the driver of vehicle in which Broad was travelling were killed and five Sri Lankan players and an assistant coach injured. He criticised the security arrangements, saying it had left them "sitting ducks".

Miandad, the former director-general of the Pakistan Cricket Board, said Broad had no right to make such remarks in public. "I will urge the ICC to impose a life ban on Broad as he, being the official, has no right to make such remarks in public," Miandad told the Dawn.

The Pakistan cricket chief, Ijaz Butt, has reacted with similar anger to Broad's claims and vowed to lodge a complaint with the ICC.

Some Pakistanis, including Imran Khan and the current foreign minister, are suggesting that foreigners of foreign influences supported the attack. Very easy to say but this will be very hard to prove. And may just be a diversion or an excuse.

Security was woeful. The players and officials appear to have been saved by the fact that a rocket missed the bus, a grenade failed to explode and the driver floored the gas to flee the scene. The attackers then just walked away or left on motorcycles. It was too easy. The Pakistan team bus which was supposed to travel in convoy was five minutes behind. The attackers were unhurt and walked away.

This is not a time to rally around Pakistan and suggest that sport should continue. Pakistan will have to play its international sport in  another country, the UAE or the UK look possible. No team should be asked or expected to tour Pakistan.

Keep recovering discovering

7 March 2009 - Caution - this is a press release:

Dubai has launched a massive global campaign, to promote its tourism facilities internationally.

Initiated by Emirates airline and Group in partnership with the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM), Dubai hoteliers and Destination Management Companies (DMCs) the campaign is estimated to be costing around Dhs50m, including flights, accommodation, meals and tours.

Starting today, over 2,000 frontline travel staff from around the world including; travel agents, tour operators and MICE agents will be invited to visit Dubai throughout March, April and May for an exciting and eye-opening three day familiarisation trip, under the banner of the 'Keep discovering Dubai' campaign.

Keep discovering Dubai is a combined initiative involving; Emirates, DTCM, hoteliers and DMCs, with all parties collaborating to host the 2,000 plus visitors from over 50 countries, and showcase Dubai's accessibility, infrastructure and range of amenities - from flights and choice of accommodation, to tours, dining and a spectrum of leisure options.

'Emirates has been always Dubai's ambassador to the world,' said HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates airline and Group. 'Since the inception of Emirates in 1985, we have invested millions of dollars promoting the destination and creating packages and products that have resulted in making Dubai and the UAE one of the most preferred and popular tourist destinations in the world.'

'Dubai is an exhilarating, dynamic and constantly evolving destination. The city's rise to international prominence in a mere 40 years is staggering and Emirates is proud to be a part of Dubai's achievements. Dubai is the home and heart of Emirates and we are committed to further extending our global reach to connect ever more travellers to our city.'

During the hosted three-day visit guests will be treated to a unique experience combining Arabian hospitality with spectacular scenery and world-class entertainment. From desert safaris and gourmet dining to meandering through the traditional Bastakiya, the trip will provide tour and travel operators with an unforgettable experience, designed to showcase Dubai's diverse culture and options for every traveller segment.

'A visit to Dubai is never the same. The city offers unparalleled entertainment and leisure options with new developments unveiled almost every month. It is critical that we maintain a constant dialogue with international travel agents, tour operators and MICE agents, to ensure they are aware of the new attractions that may be of interest to their clients. This campaign is a major highlight of our joint efforts with the key players of the tourism industry in the emirate,' said Mohammed Khamis bin Hareb, DTCM Executive Director Marketing and Operations.

'As Dubai increases its offering of world-class hospitality, the emirate is the preferred holiday destination for tourists from around the world. Dubai's tourism product offering is going from strength to strength thanks to the diversity of activities and hospitality offerings. The future is looking equally exciting.'

'Keep discovering Dubai will provide global representatives from the travel trade with a distinctive first-hand experience of Dubai. Tourism is an integral part of Dubai's economy and we are committed to maintaining the strong visitor figures we have witnessed throughout the last several years. With so many of Dubai's key travel companies and operators dedicating their services to this initiative we are confident in its success.'

Keep discovering Dubai is a great example of key stakeholders working together to promote Dubai as an exciting, safe and world-class destination. As part of their welcome package each guest of Keep discovering Dubai will receive a complimentary silver Vice Versa card. Valid for one month, users will instantly receive up to 20 per cent of the amount spent back on their card as a cash reward, when booking leisure activities, shopping and dining at Vice Versa Partner Outlets across Dubai.

Blessed with incredible beaches and a vast desert brimming with native flora and fauna, including over 33 mammal and reptile species indigenous to the Arabian Peninsula, Dubai is a first choice destination for many international travellers.

The emirate is currently home to over 160 different nationalities, making it one of the most multi-cultural destinations in the world. It is also host to around 400 world-class hotels and hotel apartments with nearly 41,000 rooms and over 4,000 restaurants and cafes ensuring even the most discerning travellers' needs are catered for.

As part of Keep discovering Dubai, some 300 media representatives will also be invited for a three day familiarisation trip during March, April and May, to offer them a hands-on experience of Dubai and its vibrant tourism and business landscape.
 

Emirates makes emergency landing in Perth

6 March 2009

An Emirates flight with 120 passengers on board was forced to return to Perth International Airport today after the crew called an in-flight emergency to air traffic control.

The crew of the Dubai-bound Airbus A340 made the call about 7.50am. The plane landed safely at the airport about 8.45am.

A Radio report suggested that smoke was seen escaping from the cabin.

The passengers on Flight EK425 disembarked about 9am.

Emergency services workers and several police officers then boarded the plane. It was been parked away from the main terminal while being examined by engineers.

The flight had left Perth for Dubai at 6.01am, and was the only Emirates flight scheduled to depart Perth this morning.

An Emirates spokesman said the company would comment on the incident shortly.
 

Thaksin's timely interview
By Hannah Beech for Time.com

6 March 2009

A few months after being deposed in a bloodless coup in 2006, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra told TIME he planned to retire. But Thaksin hasn't kept his promise, regularly phoning in from self-imposed exile to rally his supporters back home. Last October, Thailand's Supreme Court found him guilty of corruption on charges that he maintains were politically motivated. Thailand, meanwhile, remains roiled by political turbulence, as pro- and anti-Thaksin forces struggle for control of the country. Since Thaksin was removed from office by a military junta, the country has cycled through five prime ministers — some aligned with the polarizing tycoon, some vehemently opposed to him. Last September, protesters upset that elections had ushered in a pro-Thaksin government, even took over Bangkok's international airport for a week, virtually paralyzing the Thai capital. Thailand's current leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has vowed to use "every means we can" to extradite Thaksin; a Mar. 2 public appearance by the former Prime Minister in Hong Kong was canceled after Thai authorities announced they would attempt to have him arrested. Thaksin spoke with TIME's Southeast Asia Bureau Chief Hannah Beech by phone from Dubai about his renewed political ambitions and what it's going to take to heal his country. (See photos of Thailand's protests.)

Last time you spoke with TIME in January 2007, you said you were finished with politics and that you would retire. What changed?

[My political opponents] have been bullying me politically nonstop since then. I already declared that I wanted to retire. I wanted to spend my life with my family. But they were bullying me. The rule of law is not there [in Thailand]. The democratic process is not there. That is too much. All of my supporters urged me: 'you have to come and fight back politically.' They want [Thailand] to come back to a mature democracy.

But some would argue that your return to politics would make it more difficult to heal the divisions in Thai society.

I have to give moral support to my supporters. If I'm not going to fight anymore, that might hurt the feelings of my supporters. They are fighting for democracy. They are fighting for the rule of law. They are beyond just me.

So you are definitely planning a political comeback?

I don't have to come back politically, but I would like to do something that will help the people of Thailand. There must be a process under which I can come back. I want to come back to clear the chaos in Thailand, the civil war in Thailand. I want Thailand to be a peaceful country. If it's not necessary, then I will not run. But if it's necessary for the good of the country, then I'll do it. If [current Thai Prime Minister] Abhisit Vejjajiva can solve the problems, and the people support him, then that's fine.

How do you propose to clear the political air in Thailand?

If we don't settle the differences between the two sides, there's no way that Thailand can move forward. This mess has been there for almost three years. They have to start all over. Every party has to bury their hatchets.

Last year, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) staged massive protests and besieged Bangkok's international airport for a week. They accused the then-government of being your puppet and vowed to protest until that government fell. In the end, the court ruled that the ruling party had committed electoral fraud, and the government was forced out of office. What is your analysis of what happened?

The whole world condemned what happened with the PAD taking over the airport. It was really a quiet coup supported by the military. Many military officials were there, supporting the [PAD members, who wore] yellow shirts. That was made clear when the government instructed the military to clear the airport and the military was reluctant. They were part of it. This was really a coup. So that's the reason why [my supporters, who wear] red shirts are not happy about it. If we are a mature democracy under rule of law, these things will not happen. Those who violated the law must be prosecuted.

But wouldn't forgetting the past mean not prosecuting the PAD?

If we are to drop the charges, it has to be done on both sides, not just on one side.

Prominent scholars from around the world recently came together to criticize the way in which Thailand's lèse-majesté laws have been used to charge or jail several people, including an academic and a foreigner. What is your opinion of what has happened?

The laws have been there for many years. It was not that serious until now. They use the words 'loyal' or 'not loyal' to the monarchy as a tool to fight for power. That is bad for the monarchy and it's bad for Thailand. We should not allow this to happen. The law's intention is just to protect the monarchy. But now it's used to manipulate power. We have to redefine the law and not allow this much discretion.

Could Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej step in and comment on the laws?

The Thais should not comment on what the King should do.

Prime Minister Abhisit has urged other nations to start extradition processes against you because of a conflict-of-interest conviction you received last year. How do you feel about this?

Abhisit knows that [the conviction against me] happened because the military junta appointed [to the court] those who are clearly against me. [Abhisit] is a democratic man; he should not comment in this manner. The way he acts is purely political.

What do you think Abhisit can do to help relieve the political tensions in Thailand?

I don't think that he can do [anything] because he enjoys the power that was handed to him by the PAD and the military. Otherwise he would have to go through elections, and he will not get enough support.

So you think the Pheu Thai party, which supports you, has enough popularity to win an election?

Pheu Thai has to find prominent party leaders that can solve the problems of the country now. If we can find those types of people, then we can win. There are many good people in Thailand but we have to recruit them. It's very difficult because of what happened to me. The ones who are willing to do hard work for the country are really reluctant. Those people who are good, they are probably not interested.

Will an election heal the country?

The longer that you leave it like this, the more divisions there will be. They have to settle it quickly, especially if they are sincerely loyal to the King. The word "loyalty" has been used as an excuse to acquire power. We have to ask those who are behind the divisiveness to stop meddling into the system. When I was in power, there was a meeting in one house on Sukhumvit [Road in Bangkok] and one of the attendees revealed to me--and I have the tapes of what happened--that the meeting was about getting rid of me, by assassinating me or getting rid of me through politics or through the courts. I know who these people are. I'm thinking of naming names, but I'm afraid that may make the whole situation worse. I have to be extremely cautious. I have to bite my tongue and taste my own blood.

You said earlier that this is beyond you. If so, why is it necessary for you to return to politics?

The Thai people know how badly I've been bullied. This is politically motivated. That's the reason why even people who don't know me and don't like me have come forward. Because they feel like this is not fair.

 

Paranoid nation

4 March 2009

Gordon Brown in an obsequious speech to the US Congress yesterday called on the USA to lead the world out of this global crisis.

Not a chance.

The USA led us into this mess but they cannot lead us out of it. It is a bit like asking Britain to lead global reconstruction after the second world war. Forget it. Britain was bankrupt and its empire was crumbling. The emerging world had realised that Britain was not the protector that it aspired to be. Self determination was the solution. And so it will be with this recession. The US is too broken. It will struggle to fix itself let alone the rest of us.

Part of the problem is that the US is paranoid. Paranoid nations lack the moral authority and confidence to lead.

At the airports there are constant security announcements. We are at security code orange. Who knows what that means? Who cares. They have been at orange since the attempted shoe bomber in 2006.

Airport security is overwhelming and invasive and yet is the only function in the USA that continues to grow. You don't hear of redundancies at Homeland Security. Instead you get cards left in your luggage telling you that they had to break the lock to access your baggage and that some minimum wage employee has ransacked your suitcase in the name of fighting global terror. Even this activity is outsourced; presumably to the lowest available tender. The thought that someone has rummages through my belongings without me being present is troubling. And it would be impossible to argue or prove that anything went missing.

The security industry must be the fastest growing and almost only growing industry in the USA and it is entirely unproductive. All five fingers on one hand are scanned as you enter the USA. Yet much of the biometric data is apparently useless and false positives and false matches are all too common.

There is a whole nation of young people that is growing up thinking that it is normal to go through airport security after removing shoes, coats, jackets, belts and watches; after taking our your computer from its storage back. I saw a large security lady running her hands over the hair, head and neck of a muslim lady wearing a headscarf at jfk in full view of everyone else; not even done privately. I would be offended if she did that to me. No wonder some people hate the west.

As for the lady at Los Angeles immigration. Maybe a welcome to the USA and enjoy your stay would be more appropriate than her hostility. But these people have been given a power that they are happy to abuse to the full.

Much of this security creates a form of domestic protectionism; it says that we do not trust any foreigners; that everyone wants to do us harm and not good. This protectionism then extends to trade barriers; employment barriers; import quotas; increased government intervention, endless senate committees; bureaucracy and red tape. Not of this is going to allow the USA to be a leader.

The British Empire died when it was clear after World War 2 that the countries of empire owed nothing to Britain. Britain was unable to defend them physically or support them financially. The British were lucky - they found in Clement Atlee and his 1946 Labour government a government that understood the need to put Britain first and that could resurrect the country. But as a world power, Britain was now in the lower leagues. President Obama has sufficient goodwill and support and charisma to do the same in the USA. But he needs to restore US confidence. The USA's own empire will disintegrate.

Who steps us to lead? That is far from clear; maybe the days of Empire are dead. All for one and one for all.

Just how bad is it ??

4 March 2009

Our taxi driver to JFK has been driving a cab for 35 years. Nice chap. He said that he had never seen New York business so quiet. And he added that it is getting worse by the day.

There is less traffic. The rush hours are shorter. The early morning bankers no longer go en masse to Wall Street. The hotels are quiet. Even Christmas was short of visitors. Too many people have borrowed money that they dont have and now cannot afford to pay back. Those that do have are hording for the future. Saving for as long as they can as no one knows when the turnaround will come. And many people are now assuming the worst for their pension/retirement plans and are assuming that any work is better than an uncertain retirement.

Yet he grumbled even those that have been sensible enough to save are still hurt - as the government has consistently taxed interest earnings. He is right; there was little incentive to save.

This seems a fair time to assess how bad a mess are we in. And it could get a whole lot worse. This crisis is unprecedented in its scale, speed, synchronicity and severity.

Yesterday the Dow Jones Index fell below 7,000 for the first time since 1997. AIG announced a quarterly loss of over US$61 billion. AIG is now owned 80% by the US government and has received four bail out packages. Ouch.

Why keep bailing out AIG? In the USA alone AIG has more than 375 million life insurance policies with a face value of US$19 trillion. Imagine those cashed in all at once. The trouble with AIG was that it had a triple A rated insurance business that it used to support a massive casino - a huge hedge fund - which then brought down the whole business. It will be a long road to fix AIG and it will be left as a simple property and casualty insurer; massively slimmed down but ideally with its policy base still intact.

Then there is Starbucks. Another company that has to rush to reinvent itself for leaner times. Starbucks' customers are becoming frugal. Can Starbucks become an affordable brand? Or will we all take our coffee to work or drink the MacDonalds cappuccino.

Virgin is closing its flagship Time Square megastore. I already reported that the San Francisco store is closing. DVDs and CDs are losing out to the internet downloads.

HSBC had said that it was OK. It has not joined the queue for a UK government bailout. Now Europe's biggest bank is seeking US$18 billion from its investors. In the USA HSBC will close its HSBC finance business with the loss of over 6,000 jobs.

But; the theatre was full last night despite sub zero temperatures and on a Monday night as well; and for one of few Broadway shows that is not a musical. Star power still attracts. Like many businesses come the recession there is a flight to quality.

Hotels may be struggling but it wont do them any harm to discount for a while. What goes around comes around. When demand is high guess what the hotels are the first to put up their prices to levels that neither their service or their cost base warrants. So time for them to realise that people do want value and that they need to offer it. Rest assured, as soon as the hotels can shove there prices back up again they will be first to do so.

Airlines have cut back on capacity. They have cut planes, crews and flights. Service in the USA is almost non existent. Most passengers now print their own boarding cards. But two of the three flights we have flown on in the last week have had over 90% loads. People still need to travel domestically. The big cuts will be in vacation trips and long distance business travel.

It is bad; but for companies that can afford to adapt and change; now is the time to work with your customer and to help them; because those are the customers that will still be there growing with you when this recession does eventually bottom out.

Ryanair's latest revenue plans?

3 March 2009

from http://www.b3ta.com/

Easing Dubai anxieties requires greater transparency

Financial Times - 3 March 2009

The United Arab Emirates, largely bankrolled by Abu Dhabi, was bound to step in to rescue debt-laden Dubai. Unfortunately, the march to last week's bail-out was so painfully slow, and so lacking in clarity, that the impact of the $10bn federal loan, part of a $20bn five-year Dubai bond issue, could be less dramatic than intended.

Back in October, when the financial meltdown had only just begun, the UAE was the most pro-active among its Arab peers in moving to safeguard its economy by injecting funds into the banking system and guaranteeing deposits.

But the message that action carried - that the federal system would kick in with force when needed - was soon drowned out by the alarm over the high leverage of Dubai's quasi-government entities and rumours over what form an eventual bail-out would take.

Dubai did eventually deliver a rare moment of transparency, with its top officials collating (for the first time) and then revealing that sovereign and state-affiliated entities carried about $80bn in debt.

But to its own detriment, Dubai kept insisting that it needed no one's help, that it could and would refinance the loans coming due this year, and still forge ahead with its development. Too proud of its achievements, Dubai would not utter the word "bail-out" nor let anyone else entertain it.

When some officials began to talk about a federal facility to make funds available to Dubai companies - and this was discussed as far back as November - the idea was shot down as too damaging to the emirate's reputation. Perhaps federal money was being offered then with too many strings attached, whereas last week's subscription to the Dubai bond carried a reasonable 4 per cent interest.

Dubai, after all, values its economic and political autonomy, which could be undermined if it becomes too dependent on the UAE federation. The structure of the rescue - the central bank subscribed to a five-year bond programme issued by Dubai - also suggests that pride may have kept the emirate from seeking help from its richer sister, Abu Dhabi.

Whatever the reasons for the procrastination, the resulting uncertainty was hugely damaging, driving up the cost of insuring Dubai's debt to rates that implied default. Moreover, when the government-owned Borse Dubai sought to refinance its $3.4bn debt, it found the money so hard to come by that the Dubai government was forced to underwrite more than half the amount.

The worse blow, however, came when Abu Dhabi decided to inject $4.3bn into five of its banks to shore up their capital, opting for a unilateral, rather than federal-wide move. The interpretation - that Abu Dhabi was letting down Dubai - was probably misplaced, but little effort was made to correct it.

Last week's bond issue was, therefore, crucial. But after a brief bounce, the Dubai stock market lost interest, having perhaps realised that, though the funds will be used for refinancing debt, they will have limited impact on the faltering economy.

Sadly, there was also no improvement in communication. Instead of stressing that the UAE central bank would be ready to take up the second $10bn tranche of the bond, Dubai officials played down the need for more funding, and suggested it might not be required for another two to three years.

Yet for the financial assistance to have maximum impact, it needs to be seen as part of a credible, sustained and transparent strategy.

As Morgan Stanley says, continued lack of transparency over the financial soundness of Dubai's publicly controlled institutions may keep fuelling market speculation about the extent of their liabilities.

The bank calls for a higher level of disclosure from Dubai as well as a "clear and unambiguous" official stand from Abu Dhabi or the federal government. Good advice that would go a long way to easing the Dubai anxieties.

The demise of Western manufacturing

2 March 2009

The demise of western maunufacturing is summed up in the following parable:

An American automobile company and a Japanese auto company decided to have a competitive boat race on the Detroit River. Both teams practiced hard and long to reach their peak performance. On the big day, they were as ready as they could be. The Japanese team won by a mile.

Afterwards, the American team became discouraged by the loss and their morale sagged. Corporate management decided that the reason for the crushing defeat had to be found. A Continuous Measurable Improvement Team of "Executives" was set up to investigate the problem and to recommend appropriate corrective action. Their conclusion: The problem was that the Japanese team had 8 people rowing and 1 person steering, whereas the American team had 1 person rowing and 8 people steering.

The American Corporate Steering Committee immediately hired a consulting firm to do a study on the management structure. After some time and billions of dollars, the consulting firm concluded that "too many people were steering and not enough rowing." To prevent losing to the Japanese again next year, the management structure was changed to "4 Steering Managers, 3 Area Steering Managers, and 1 Staff Steering Manager" and a new performance system for the person rowing the boat to give more incentive to work harder and become a six sigma performer. "We must give him empowerment and enrichment." That ought to do it.

The next year the Japanese team won by two miles. The American Corporation laid off the rower for poor performance, sold all of the paddles, cancelled all capital investments for new equipment, halted development of a new canoe, awarded high performance awards to the consulting firm, and distributed the money saved as bonuses to the senior executives.

Spoiled flyers

1 March 2009

There is nothing like a few flights in the US of A to remind you just how spoiled airline passengers are in the middle and far east.

Inflight catering and comfort are now history in the US.

A five hour flight in economy on Emirates or Cathay Pacific even on economy will include (even in economy) a pre flight hot towel or drink; a three course meal; alcoholic drinks; seat back video and free headsets; cabin crew that dont remind me of my mother; and a seat with usually a decent amount of legroom. And you get to take 20kg of luggage with you without charge.

Even Asia's low cost carriers will offer a range of drinks that probably includes hot food.

But after three flights in a week around the USA it is clear that there is no distinction between the LCCs and the legacy carriers. It is all rather depressing. In most cases you dont even get a human being to check you in for a domestic flight. To avoid luggage charges people are carrying huge bags onto the plane; and checking in for the flight at a machine.

At least with Southwest the business model remains largely unchanged since the airline started. Die to peanut allergies they now offer a choice of peanuts or pretzels.

American does not even offer a free peanut. Out 5 hour flight today has: no hot towel service; a single drinks service; a choice of a small turkey breast and cheese croissant for US$6 or a prepacked cheese tray or bag on nuts for US$4. Nothing else. Alcoholic drinks are US$6. American's 767s now have even less leg room and less seat recline than a Southwest 737. Which is more than an Allegiant MD80 which has no seat recline at all !

So before you next complain that your choice of meal is not available on an Emirates flight or that the flight attendant has not brought you your 5th rum and coke yet, just remember how lucky you are NOT to be flying in the USA

Golden Gateway

1 March 20009

Opened on 27 May 1937 the Golden Gate Bridge was ahead of its time; Built to survive a large size earthquake; undamaged by the 1989 quake; able to sway up to 22 feet in the worst storm; and still the primary access from Northern California into the city. Built at a time when traffic was perhaps one twentieth of current capacity the bridge was built for the future.

In Sydney access across the harbour is primarily by transit and a harbour tunnel. The bridge itself cannot handle the daily traffic loads. But in SanFrancisco they built a bridge for the future. And it is still the city's icon and a major tourist attraction in its own right.