November 2004
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China is hot
30 November 2004
Continuing the China them for this month this is a Canadian report on Chinese efforts to secure the natural resources that it needs to support her rapid economic growth. I will put all the China articles into a separate section on this web site. The story of China's economic growth and potential dominance of world trade will be one of the stories of this decade. By 2010 China will be a juggernaut; the issues will be whether she is under control or not; and if she is a friend or a foe not just of Asian nations but globally.
China frantic for energy supplies :
Beijing looking to Canada and beyond for sources of oil, gas, electricity and coalBy GEOFFREY YORK - Globe and Mail
Monday, November 29, 2004
BEIJING - At first glance, the events are unconnected. A possible Chinese takeover of a leading Canadian oil company. A secret submarine in Japanese waters. A border deal in Siberia. Trade pacts with obscure African nations. Diplomatic efforts to protect rogue states in the Middle East.
These seemingly random incidents around the world, however, are united by one crucial phenomenon: China's growing obsession with its energy security.
Fearful of its mounting vulnerability to any threat to its oil and gas imports, Beijing has become frantically active in its quest for new energy supplies. The latest example -- its effort to acquire Husky Energy Inc. of Calgary -- is just the most recent of a long series of initiatives to gain fresh energy sources for its booming economy.
China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the first half of this year. It recently surpassed Japan to become the world's second-biggest oil importer. Its own oil production, once large enough to supply its needs, has fallen into steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an unexpected cutoff of supply.
Beijing sees the risk of an energy shortage as one of the biggest potential threats to its national security and social stability. It has become fixated with the goal of diversifying its sources of oil, gas, electricity and coal.
The Chinese government has reportedly drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is already building 52 massive tanks near the East China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold more than 25 million gallons.
But this might not be enough. China's economy -- with its emphasis on voracious energy-gobbling industries such as steel, cement, and manufacturing -- is increasingly dependent on heavy energy consumption.
For every dollar of GDP, it consumes three times as much energy as the global average, and almost five times as much as the U.S. average. By 2020, China is projected to have 130 million private cars -- five times as many as today -- and its cars are already consuming far more gasoline per car than the average car in the United States or Japan.
As a result, China is aggressively negotiating trade and investment deals with almost any country that boasts a supply of oil or natural gas, regardless of the cost. It is already co-operating with 27 countries on oil exploration.
In Africa alone, it has reached agreement to buy oil from Cameroon, Nigeria, Gabon and Angola. In Latin America, it has signed a trade deal with Brazil to finance a drilling and pipeline program that would provide oil and gas to China, even though the Brazilian deal is estimated to be three times more expensive than simply buying supplies on the open market.
To secure Russian oil, Beijing gave favourable terms to Moscow to settle a long-standing border dispute on a Siberian river. Russia reciprocated last week by promising to deliver as much as 420 million barrels of oil by train to China annually by 2010, up from the present level of 140 million barrels.
China and Japan have been jousting for the right to receive an oil pipeline from Russia, although the latest indications suggest that Japan might win the battle.
China's obsession with energy security has put it on a collision course with the United States, which disapproves of Beijing's eagerness to cut deals with "pariah states" such as Iran and Sudan.
Last month, China signed a $70-billion deal to help develop an Iranian oil field and purchase natural gas from Iran. Within a few days, Beijing signalled that it would oppose any effort to seek UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.
In a similar move, China has supported Sudan against allegations of human rights abuses. China has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing oil fields and pipelines in Sudan, its biggest single African energy supplier.
And in another far-reaching consequence of China's energy appetite, China and Japan are jostling for control of the vast natural-gas deposits below the East China Sea. Both countries have laid claim to much of the sea, and China has begun the construction of drilling platforms to tap the gas deposits in disputed waters, provoking sharp protests from Tokyo. When a Chinese nuclear submarine was discovered in Japanese waters this month, a three-day chase by Japanese warships ensued. The incident was widely believed to be linked to China's challenge of the Japanese gas deposit claims.
In this global context, the possible takeover of Husky Energy fits neatly into Beijing's energy strategy. China is interested in importing up to one million barrels of oil a day from Alberta's oil sands projects, including those on the drawing board at Husky. Beijing is also seeking Husky's expertise in offshore oil drilling, primarily because of Chinese drilling plans in the East China Sea.
Zimbabwe farce
26 November 2004
England should not be playing cricket in Zimbabwe - I have said it so often it hardly bares repeating.
But this week has been a farce. Refusing to make a stand against tyranny, torture, oppression and starvation, England's cricketers, led by the shameful ECB have at last found a worthy cause. This week they made a stand because the Zimbabwean government were not giving press accreditation to certain cricket journalists.
At last a worthy cause, and a reason to delay travel to Zimbabwe; denying those chaps from the Telegraph and the Times their press accreditation.
A Mickey Mouse Disney
24 November 2004
Disney has set the opening date as 12 September 2005. They have also crowed that Disney Hong Kong will be cheaper than any other Disney site in the world.
And so it will - on weekdays. Go on a weekend and you can add 20% to the price. Remember that this is the soft opening price only. Initially only some of the rides will be operational.
Also remember that the Hong Kong park is only 1% (yes - one per cent!) the size of DIsneyworld in Florida.
It really is not worth bleating here how Hong Kong was taken to the cleaners by Disney Corp. It is not worth repeating here just how much the clean up of Penny's Bay on Lantau has cost the Hong Kong people.
This was not a good contract for Hong Kong. But it will bring visitors and it will stimulate spending. My little guy (seven years old) is already talking about it. Ocean Park will hurt after DIsney opens. Indeed Ocean Park may well become a prime real estate site.
And there is a multiplier effect. We cannot just look at the revenues and costs related to DIsney directly. Visitors will come and they will spend, not just at Disney.
I just hope the 7 year old is not too disappointed. Its going to be a rather mickey mouse Disney.
China's military ambitions
23 November 2004
The dispatch of a Chinese nuclear submarine into Japanese waters raised the political temperature in East Asia and has set many people thinking where China's military ambitions may start and end.
Clearly they can win hearts and minds through economic strength; relations with Zimbabwe, see below, are testament to that.
But China's vast consumption of natural resources from oil to gas to water to steel to potash may mean that China has to obtain access to resources deep in the heart of other nations. China can but those resources and he held ransom to foreigners controlling the supply and pricing. Or China can acquire those resources, preferably through business and economic acquisition. But there are other means.
China's borders include N Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and the 'Stans (Pakistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakstan. The latter have significant undeveloped resources.
One provocative article, published today in the Washington Times, follows. The global balance of power is changing. It is a new reality, a new industrial revolution. While the 20th century witnessed the rise of America. The 21st century will witness the ris and dominance of China. Be prepared. And if you choose, embrace the new reality. Being a part of this change may just give people the opportunity to ensure that the checks and balances are in place to safeguard lives and freedoms.
23 November 2004
China's bold
displays
The scariest ride I ever had was not at an amusement park. It was the ride I took two weeks ago through Shanghai, China, from Hongqiao International Airport to the Bund area along the Huangpu riverfront. It was just after dark, and this mammoth city was lit up in an awe-inspiring display the likes of which I had not seen even in Beijing.
Shanghai has a skyline that puts New York or Chicago to shame, but it also has a larger population than New York and Chicago combined. Mile after mile of new high-rise office buildings, many boosting the names of the world's major corporations, make a stunning proclamation of wealth and power. Unlike the boxy concrete and steel designs I had seen in Tokyo, the Shanghai skyline looks like a "city of the future" as envisioned by science-fiction artists. With these grandiose designs, China is sending a clear message to the world that it is playing for real. That is something to stir nightmares.
American security concerns have focused on terrorism and the Middle East. This is understandable, as Muslim terrorists plot more American deaths. Yet, terrorism is the weapon of the weak. It cannot change the global balance of power. And Islamic fundamentalism is a backward-looking doctrine of social and economic stagnation.
The rise of China challenges the global balance, and is already transforming how the world works. Endowing an empire of 1.3 billion people with modern industry, technology and capital gives the strong Beijing central government immense resources with which to support its ambitions.
China is driven by impassioned nationalism and the limitless energy of capitalism, a combination that will rock the world.
Military threats always loom largest in the public mind, and China is creating such a danger. My visits to Beijing and Shanghai were preludes to the real reason for my trip, which was to attend the fifth Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai. This event is held every two years. It has two purposes: to showcase China's advancements and attract U.S. and other Western companies who want to sell technology and systems to Beijing.
China's space program was highlighted, from the capsule astronaut Yang Liwei used to orbit the Earth in 2003 to animated videos of Chinese plans to land on the moon and exploit its resources. Most of the displays, however, were devoted to Chinese fighters, remotely piloted (unmanned) military aircraft, helicopter gunships and missiles of all types.
The displays clearly showed there is no segregation of civilian and military aviation activities. The Chinese aerospace industry is run by the state. Its largest agency is Aviation Industries of China I (AVIC I). Its displays featured, side by side, a variety of civilian airliners and its numerous military projects for fighters, bombers, military transports and reconnaissance aircraft. Its sister organization, AVIC II, which was split off in 1999 to create competition and improve management, concentrates more on business jets, helicopters and missiles. One display featured a row of cruise and air-to-air missiles under a large poster of a corporate jet, again showing the guiding Chinese principle of "Jun-min jiehe" — combine the military and the civil.
This principle was very evident in the two halls devoted to American and Western firms trying to sell high-tech products to China. These firms are only supposed to be civilian development firms. But that line cannot be drawn, and it is doubtful those marketing their wares in this booming market care.
Italian Deputy Minister of Defense Salvator Cicu was on hand for the signing of a co-production agreement between Agusta Westland and AVIC II for a new helicopter design. Italy, along with France and Germany, have pressed the European Union to lift its arms embargo on China. But the embargo has long been undermined by sale of dual-use equipment and technology to Beijing. Helicopters are a prime example. Why else would a defense official celebrate a putatively civilian project?
Two identical remotely piloted helicopters were displayed — one configured for crop dusting, the other for military reconnaissance. It takes little imagination to see how the crop duster might be used with chemical or biological weapons.
American companies have been just as guilty as European firms in helping China improve its capabilities. Boeing had a large mural at its booth touting not only how many airliners it had sold to China but also how much production work it had outsourced to Chinese industry, how many Chinese engineers and technical workers it had trained, and how much it was investing in Chinese research facilities.
U.S. officials have lobbied against any
lifting of the EU weapons embargo on China. Yet, how can the Europeans take
American arguments seriously when the Bush administration (and the Clinton
administration before it) have not only turned a blind eye to the role of U.S.
firms in advancing Beijing's development, but have encouraged it under the
rubric of "commercial engagement?" Which is worse: Europeans selling weapons to
China, or Americans teaching the Chinese how to build their own weapons?
William Hawkins is senior fellow for national security studies at the
U.S. Business and Industry Council.
For China economics comes first
23 November 2004
It is rather depressing to witness the cosy relationship that has developed between China and the despotic regime in Zimbabwe. Indeed it may well be that it is only access to Chinese money that preserves the Mugabe government. Neither country has a proud record on human rights and clearly this is of little concern to all consuming China.
The latest trade news between the two countries sees Air Zimbabwe announcing twice weekly flights to Beijing supporting Chinese investment in that country which tops US$600 million.
Chinese advisors trained Zimbabwe's nationalist troops in the liberation struggle of the 1970s. After independence in 1980 China retained an economic interest extending its support as other nations stopped providing aid. Confronted by 700% inflation, 70% unemployment, food shortages, Aids epidemics and world isolation Zimbabwe has increasingly looked to China for support.
There are estimated to be 9,000 Chinese working in Zimbabwe on power, infrastructure and telecoms projects. Zimbabwe also acquire military equipment from China.
In return China gets access to Zimbabwe's mineral wealth, including platinum, gold and diamonds. This is just a part of China's acquisition of Africa; China-Africa trade is expected to exceed US$20 billion in 2004.
Henry Olonga used to play cricket for Zimbabwe. Yes, he is black. He is also in exile after wearing a black armband in a cricket match as a symbol of the death of democracy.
In an interview in London yesterday he said of his homeland "There are human rights abuses, the lack of an impartial judiciary, the collapse of the health system in the face of the HIV Aids epidemic, the collapse of law and order, the targeting of political opponents."
As China acquires what it needs to sustain domestic growth economics takes priority over right and worng.
Crane mail in Thailand
23 November 2004
The Thai Prime Minister's latest gesture to appease the troubled south is a massive littering exercise involving plane loads of origami peace bombs.
Thaksin Shinawatra has urged all 63 million Thais to make at least one paper bird in the next fortnight so they can be dropped on the three restive provinces on December 5 as a sign of goodwill to mark King Bhumibol Adulyadej's birthday.
Electronic road signs in Bangkok encourage people to get folding and local television stations show troops and civil servants busily creating huge flocks of doves, cranes and pigeons.
A quick straw poll of my colleagues in Chateau Potash suggests that the idea has wide support and is a way of offering moral support to their southern compatriots. One colleague has made ten, another seven. There are even instructions (in Japanese !!!) on how to fold a paper crane on the office notice board.
Then there are collection points in offices and apartment buildings. And a massive loading exercise to get the cranes to the planes!
And the biggest exercise of all - clearing up the littered fields afterwards!
For the record community leaders in the affected region, which is predominantly Muslim while the rest of Thailand is overwhelmingly Buddhist, believe the stunt will achieve little. They say it is just a gimmick ahead of a general election due by February.
"The key obstacle to solving problems in the south is that the majority of Thais look at Muslims as second-class citizens," one leader was quoted as saying.
The coming war over Taiwan
19 November 2004
It is hard to see where an acceptable compromise can be found in relations between Taiwan and China.
The vitriolic war of words continues and the stakes get higher with the passage of time. It is a simple matter of Chinese nationalism; of Chinese pride, and of a deep seated sense of what right. Taiwan will never be allowed to exist as a separate nation; the best that she can hope for is a certain amount of self determination along the lines of a Hong Kong or Macau. But Taiwan's independent, free-thinking, self-determining and democratic world will not be allowed to continue.
The mainland communists and the remnants of the KMT form unlikely bed fellows but they share the goal of a united China. It is a mess. President Chen in Taiwan is pushing for a referendum and a new constitution by 2008 that would embrace the principles of an independent Taiwanese nation. China will never let this happen.
Do not rule out a Chinese invasion. This depressing scenario was outlined over lunch a few days ago and is a worryingly plausible scenario. Consider the following:
1) China needs air superiority over Taiwan; it is close.
2) Air superiority would allow a massive sea borne invasion (Germany's plan for Britain in 1940). China has the troops and the landing craft.
3) The gamble is that the US would not intervene. It is a fair gamble. The US has two basic problems. Defense spending cuts and Iraq. Both mean that the US has limited force to fight another war in a far off land that frankly most of her people have little interest in.
4) The world's economic dependence on China is such that normal relations would be quickly re-established. Sad; but it is the reality. An invasion of Taiwan would be considered a domestic issue allowing, as soon as it is safe to do so, normal trade and investment to quickly continue, probably led by the perfidious French.
5) China's nuclear submarine did not suddenly get lost in Japanese waters last week. GPS solves that. The consensus is that the sub had a mission to test Japanese and US response times and reaction to an incursion into their territorial waters.
6) The UN will not intervene. A censure or two. Easily managed.
7) The threat of losing or of a major boycott of the 2008 Olympics is far less important that the recovery of Taiwan.
It would be a short and sharp campaign. This would probably lead to Taiwan suing for a peace that allows them to maintain some part of their livelihood and economy.
It is hard to see what the alternative might be. China wants a solution before too many years pass by. The longer Taiwan remains independent the more the people grow accustomed to that independence. It will never happen.
Thaksin likely to attend APEC
18 November 2004
Reversing his earlier decision, and probably causing great uncertainty to his hosts, Thai Prime Minster Thaksin has said that he will now attend the APEC meeting this weekend in Santiago.
He must have been reading my earlier column urging him to attend.
However, his new jet will remain grounded. The specially configured Airbus A319, which the Thai press has dubbed Air Force One, can carry only 36 people - far less than the size of the delegation - and would require multiple refuelling stops to get halfway around the world.
Officials say Thaksin will instead make his trip in a Thai Airways MD-11, which raises the question: why have a prime ministerial jet in the first place?
Hong Kong rolls over but it is not enough
17 November 2004
Here was my 16 October story about China's world cup woes. Only one team qualifies from this group for the second qualifying round of the World Cup. And it is not China; despite beating Hong Kong by a laughable 7-0 China is left with the same goal difference as Kuwait and has scored one goal less after Kuwait's 6-1 win over hapless Malaysia.
China's world cup woes
16 October 2004
It would be a bad day if China fails to qualify for the 2006 World Cup finals in Germany. But they may be about to fall at the first hurdle. On November 17 China play Hong Kong and Kuwait play Malaysia. China and Kuwait both have 12 points; Kuwait has a better goal difference, by two. Malaysia have been beaten in every match that they have played. Only the winning team in this group moves into the next round.
There are already calls from China for Hong Kong to throw the match for the good of the motherland.
Chinese interest in the world cup is critical to the growth of the sport in China and of course is a wonderful marketing money-spinner.
What is clear is that middle eastern football continues to advance and is leaving Asia behind.
China's great sporting dreams lie in footballing tatters in Guangzhou. One more injury time goal would have been enough.
There have been serious scandals in the Chinese football league. And China now has 4 years to clean up and reform its football programme and rebuild for the next qualifying campaign.
Hong Kong were woeful. It was like watching a very poor training game. They were just not quite woeful enough.
Overdosed on Arafat
November 13, 2004
Every time that I have switched on CNN over the last week I have been confronted by Yasser Arafat. In Ramallah. Being sent by helicopter and French government plane to his hospital in France. Being visited in hospital by a self serving French President, and eventually being buried in crazy scenes.
Who was this; was this some great world leader who had brought peace to our times. Was the a man who had somehow changed and bettered our world. Was this the leader of a great and prosperous nation. Was this a Mao or a Gandhi?
No, it was the man who created modern day terrorism.
Let's face it; this guy was hardly a saint. Yet all the fawning coverage of CNN and some other media might mislead you into thinking that Arafat was a great statesman of the world. He was a leader without a state.
Arafat was first and foremost a terrorist. He was also the long time symbol of the Palestinians' hope for an independent state. It is fair to say that the stalemate between Israel and Palestine fuels Muslim anger and gives credence to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. But peace in the Middle East requires dialogue and trust; and Israel could never trust Arafat. Meanwhile other than giving the Palestinian people a sense of national identity it is hard to actually see what in reality he did for his people other than encouraging them to blame Israel for all that was wrong. It is easy to have a common enemy. Arafat continued to promote the strongest anti-Jewish sentiment since Hitler's Germany.
Arafat did little to start the reforms that successful statehood require; competent governance, public welfare and infrastructure projects; tackling corruption and condemning state sponsored terrorism. He took funds away from the Palestinian people; he hid funds in Swiss bank accounts; and maybe in France. Those funds will be the subject of a long future fight for access and ownership.
What CNN in all their eulogising seem to have forgotten is that Arafat ordered the death of thousands of men, women and children.
Why did he die; the French hospital and authorities have said nothing. Poisoning must be a possibility.
The best thing that can be said for Arafat's passing is that there may now be a greater chance of a reasoned and peacefully negotiated settlement in the Middle East led by people who respect life rather than destroy it.
One year on the Thai PM snubs APEC
November 12, 2004
One year ago Bangkok was brought to a grinding halt by the annual gathering of Asia Pacific leaders known as APEC. One year ago Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra made a huge play of his role as a leader of ASEAN and as the central figure and host for the 2003 meeting.
This year the Thai PM has decided that events in the south are sufficiently important for him to stay as home and send a deputy in his place.
This is a poor decision and is particularly ungrateful after the huge show of support given by APEC leaders to Thailand last year.
Meanwhile President GW Bush is fighting a huge war in Iraq - but he will still be attending. Chinese President Hu Jintao will be there despite unrest in Henan province. He will be looking to seal deals for future energy resources.
It would been a good opportunity for the Thai PM to discuss the southern troubles with Muslim leaders from the region including the Malaysian PM and the new Indonesian President. Thailand could also have pushed a number of free trade discussions with Japan, New Zealand, Peru and the USA.
The meeting is in Chile; yes it is a long way to go. And it is true that Thai Air Force One will need to re-fuel a few times to get there. But Thaksin would devalue the meeting by not being there and is snubbing the same leaders who gave him such a strong endorsement last year. This will not be forgotten.
The meeting is on November 20/21. I hasty reconsideration would be welcome.
In the deep rough at Muang Kaew
November 9, 2004
Muang Kaew is one of the closest golf courses to Central Bangkok. It has been considerably rebuilt over the last three years, The course was redesigned; the greens rebuilt; new memberships sold, the clubhouse, restaurant and locker rooms all redesigned. Even the caddies were properly trained.
All of this work was completed under the supervision of a company owned by two Canadian investors, Siam Golf Properties Co. Ltd.
Siam Golf were apparently operating under a 10 year lease that appears to have had a renewal clasue built into it at the three year point.
Siam Golf appear to have found out the hard way that contract discussions can take many different forms in Thailand.
The owners of Muang Kaew for the last 10 years are a company called Sannan Golf. Before Siam Golf Properties were appointed to manage the course it was it quite poor condition and was suffering financially.
Last month Siam Golf received letter saying that they were being evicted for breach if contract. The alleged breaches included failure to tend to the trees or to remove dead plants. From a personal view these allegations make little sense; the course condition improves all the time despite being heavily played.
On the evening of 31 October police arrived at the course to evict Siam Golf. I have heard, but cannot yet confirm, that all of Siam Golf's property at the club such as pro shop stock was removed. The owners of Siam Golf were barred from entering the property. The next day Siam Golf arrived with their own security personnel and police. The two groups of police each representing a different side in this dispute then stood toe to toe; probably not offering eachother putting tips.
Siam Golf withdrew their militia; they then filed a Baht 220 million breach of contract suit and also approached the Canadian Embassy for assistance. The Canadian Ambassador, who frankly should have more important things to do, then wrote to the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressing concern that due legal process may not have been followed and that the actions of Sannan Golf may send "a very negative message to foreign investors."
Siam Golf have been granted an audience with representatives of the Thai Prime Minister to try and seek a mediated solution.
There has to be more to this story than is reported in the newspapers. Among obvious questions are who is now managing the club; what happens to existing memberships; and who has the funds from new memberships issued over the last few years.
How offensive can you get?
November 5 2004
The
front page of yesterday's UK Daily Mirror was about as offensive as it is
possible to be. Accusing 59 million people of being DUMB is arrogant,
ill-considered and wholly inappropriate.
The USA is blessed with many many millions of thoughtful, talented, entrepreneurial, and well-educated people who work honestly in the best interests of themselves, their family and their nation.
Like it or not they are a first world country and a first world military power. They are also the world's largest donor of foreign aid and a major force in ensuring at least a degree of personal freedoms and the spread of democracy over the last 20 years.
The USA is the first rate nation that so many in the world still look enviously towards for leadership and for opportunity.
I have sent the following letter to the Daily Mirror:
Supermarket trolley drivers terrorise Bangkok
November 4 2004
You can tell a great deal about how people might behave behind
the wheel of a car when you watch them wheeling their shopping trolley around
the supermarket.
The latter is a particularly alarming experience in Bangkok and a good reason why the best advise is to keep off the streets.
My local supermarket is the TOPS market at the Silom Complex. It is a little older than some of the newer stores; the aisles are relatively narrow and the store is busy.
The situation is not helped by a large number of promotional stalls that sit in the centre of the widest aisles encouraging shoppers to stop, park their trolley and have an extended social chat with new friends. The seafood girl dressed as a mermaid looked particularly in need of a new job.
It is also a trolley driver's nightmare. On a recent visit the following arrestable offences were seen:
 | Un-signaled u-turns in the middle of the aisle. |
| Parking the trolley in the centre of the aisle and wandering off leaving it unattended. |
| Parking hand baggage on the floor in the middle of the aisle while walking off chatting on a mobile phone. |
| One handed trolley driving while chatting on a phone. |
| Side by side parking in the aisle so that no one can pass in either direction. |
| Appallingly slow cart pushing in the middle of the aisle so that no one may pass. |
| Abrupt stops for no apparent reason. |
| Collisions - head on or side wipes - as shoppers try to maneuver their unwieldy beasts. |
All of this could be avoided by an effective one way system; wider aisles; effective training programmes for new shoppers or on the spot fines for reckless endangerment with a shopping cart.
You have been warned.
Pathetic; the world's so called greatest democracy held hostage by Ohio
November 3 2004
After a nine month campaign and a US$4 billion bill the USA and the world deserve better than to be held hostage by petty officials in a petty state.
Ohio has 20 votes in the electoral college. The state's top election official has said that those provisional and absentee ballots would not be counted for 11 days, and he urged Americans to "take a deep breath and relax."
What sort of nonsense is this? The USA demands clear leadership. Count the ballots now and let's move on.
Kerry is beginning to look like as good a loser as Arsenal. Time to lose gracefully and move on.
Fox News and NBC now follow rascott.com
November 3, 2004
At 1.30pm EDT Fox and NBC have declared that Bush will win Ohio and will secure enough votes for another four year term. Other political news site such as Slate had declared in favour of the Democrats.
Once more the US media has underestimated Bush and the organisational abilities of the Republicans. Once more the US media is totally out of touch with the US heartlands.
In Washington DC 90% of the vote went to John Kerry. Washington is home to all the media, lobbyists and federal civil servants. No wonder GW Bush looks so ill at ease in Washington. No one likes him there.
Bush is a man of Crawford, Texas. This is where he knows and understands the pulse of the people and their expectations of his leadership.
I dont like him and I wish the Democrats had performed better. But Kerry was a poor candidate at a time when the US and the world deserved someone of stature and credibility.
rascott.com predicts Bush win
November 3 2004
It is 11.20pm in New York. With votes still being counted in key states of Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio rascott.com calls a Bush win in the US Presidential race and depressingly resigns itself to another 4 years of the Bush administration.
Bush appears likely to win 278 of the electoral college votes; comfortable beating the 270 he needs for a majority.
America's most wanted back on video
November 1 2004
Bin Laden lives. I guess that is no surprise; sadly.
Getting the Message
|
Well before the advent of his video, and pissed off by rumours that he is dead, Osama Bin Laden decides to send a message to George W Bush. After having checked out that there was no explosive attached, anthrax or other bacteria, the President opens the letter and sees a coded message: "370HSSV 0773H". Bush doesn't understand the message and send it to Colin Powell. Colin and his assistants don't understand it and send it to the FBI and the CIA. All the experts in cryptology can't make it out either. The President is furious because he wants to understand the message. It's obviously a critical communication, if not of national importance. After much hesitation, he sends the message to his good friend John Howard, to see if the Aussie counter espionage section has another perspective. In no time they work it out. Howard is a bit embarrassed but all the same decides to send the following message to the White House: "Dear Mr. President - the message is upside down".
|
The Americans are naive if they really think that Bin Laden is not trying to influence Tuesday's US election. Bin Laden wants, in fact needs, a George Bush win. What use is their in waging a jihad if the enemy does not want to play? Al-Qaida needs a Bush win; Bush is reviled throughout the Muslim world. He is the enemy.
So Bin Laden appears on video for the first time since 2001. Conveniently the weekend before the US election. The timing is hardly a coincidence. Scare the people. So what does Mr. Bin Laden do to fill his time each day. You have to assume that he works full time on his next attack on US or western interests. Planning, funding, approving, plotting.
Al-Qaida is fighting a war not for money or lives; but for the hearts and minds of the people. It is fighting from a position of extremis. Their preferred fight is against the opposite extreme; al-Qaida needs the Muslim world to see Bush and his cohorts as being as extreme as they themselves are portrayed.
Bin Laden is al-Qaida's Michael Moore - a man who knows how to manipulate with a video tape.
Vote Kerry; it's not a great choice but it is the only choice
November 1 2004
The Economist rather cruelly describes the US election as a choice between the Incompetent or the Incoherent. Maybe it is a choice between the incompetent and the incapable.
George W Bush has to go. I just wish that his opponent was more decisive; less prone to compromise; less wordy and less opportunistic.
This has been an election campaign fought between two deeply flawed men; neither of whom deserve to lead a great nation. Bush has never seemed up to the job. He simply does not have the grasp of facts and the broadness of thought to lead and to earn respect. To make progress individuals and nations have to admit to mistakes and to learn from them. Bush has never admitted to error over Iraq; even over Abu Ghraib. And mistakes made by this administration have cost America dearly, financially, in lives and in credibility.
Kerry wins because change is necessary. He wins because he is not party to the Christian fundamentalists. He wins because his policy in issues such as abortion, gay marriages and stem cell research are more acceptable. But this election is not likely to be about domestic issues. It is about foreign policy and the safety of Americans. It is a long time since the USA last stood so isolated from the rest of the world.
Kerry voted for the Iraq war; earlier this year he claimed to support it. He now describes it as a mistake. So be it. He is an opportunist who wants to be elected.
Mr. Bush is incapable of change and he lacks the will, international support and credibility to succeed in repairing America's position in the world. He has no moral authority. He has called for accountability, He now needs to be held to account.
Re-defeat Bush on Tuesday.
More real life from Pattaya today
November 1 2004
Pattaya remains Thailand's most bizarre town - a melting pot of weirdness! And Pattaya Today yes it is still every fortnight so should not be Pattaya Today) has all the best stories: here are a few headlines:
British Visitor dies of stroke after coffee. I know it should not make me smile; at least he was not in Starbucks.
Police Impersonator rapes woman. This ought to be a worrying story; But this is a Thai girl allegedly duped by a Thai impersonating the brown uniform of a police officer who took her to a remote area near a rail track and attacked her. She cannot remember what his uniform looked like or check his id. He then apparently returned her to rejoin her boyfriend in South Pattaya. But the boyfriend was not much use because he was "drunk from a lengthy binge." I smell a rat !
Crippled man falls off pier; friend left holding wheelchair. A French national was being pushed along Bali Hai pier by his Thai girlfriend. She was distracted. She looked around and the wheelchair was empty. The man, who had taken a drink or two" might have lent forward to obtain a better view. "He could not swim and proceeded to call out for salvation from a watery end."
Ladyboy bandit chooses victim; don't be cuddled by strangers at night. "The gender bender (named Boy) offered to accompany Mr. Wright back to his hotel for a gay time; an offer which the farang courteously but firmly refused." As the foreigner tried to move away Boy threw both arms around him in a move faking undying affection for strangers. His wallet gone, Mr. Wright reported to the police. "Not surprisingly the thief in high heels had disappeared from view to count his ill gotten gains."
Unlucky farang almost ends up in dump area. "He was unconscious, probably drugged as well as drunk and had no ID description of any kind. It was noted he had black hair but this could describe most men in Pattaya."