The President America really wants

July 28 2004

The President that America, and quite probably the rest of the world, wants was the closing night speaker on the first night of the Democratic Convention. Bill Clinton.

If it was Clinton versus GW Bush in November Clinton would be a shoe-in. There are many many reasons why you should not vote for GW Bush and his cronies. Are there enough reasons to vote for John Kerry.

As Clinton took to the stage on Monday one writers commented "The place goes nuts as Bill strides forward. You have to see him standing where lesser mortals have stood—in this case at the podium 100 feet from me—to appreciate what an imposing figure he cuts. The frost that has covered his hair since he left office accentuates the effect. In the arena, far more so than on the TV screen, he looks so majestic you almost can't believe the trashy, pointless, inconsequential way in which he disgraced his office."

To his credit Clinton sold Kerry. His recurring theme was that Kerry always answered his nation's call from Vietnam to his presidential campaign by declaring "send me." Kerry got all the support that he needed from Clinton in a speech that was as always upbeat, intelligent and charismatic.

The Clintons, Gore and Carter were all set up for the opening day of the convention. Then they all go home. And on Thursday John Kerry will take to the stage for the most important speech of his career.

So far the Convention has portrayed Kerry as loyal, honest, environmentally friendly and patriotic. He served in Vietnam. But thats a generation ago. Time to move on. And he picked John Edwards as his running mate.

Is that enough to make him President?

Jimmy Carter said that if Bush wins reelection, "the manipulation of truth will define America's role in the world," and he said that "in the world at large we cannot lead if our leaders mislead."

Carter even made what to my ear sounds like a reference to the Abu Ghraib scandal, saying that "we cannot be true to ourselves if we mistreat others."

We don't want Bush; I and many others are left wishing that we could have Bill back again !

The land of the rising son....

July 26 2004

There is a place in Singapore where they appoint the rising son...and Lee Hsien Loong becomes Prime Minister on 12 August 2004; only Singapore's third PM; the first was his father; and the second was widely seen as a stop gap until the son rose.

Strangely HL Lee (also known as BG Lee) says that he is ready to implement significant economic and social reforms. But that is unlikely; like his father he is measured and conservative. And for investors, foreign companies and for many Singaporeans, one of the city state's attractions is its stability.

There is some concern that Lee may actually be too much like his father; he is not known for his charm. The new leader certainly cements the family's authority over Singapore. Mr Lee senior, now 80 years old, still sits in the cabinet (as senior minister, rather than prime minister), and supervises the Government Investment Corporation (GIC), which manages Singapore's foreign reserves. Meanwhile, Mr Lee junior's wife, Ho Ching, runs Temasek, the government holding company that owns stakes in Singapore's biggest firms, while his brother, Lee Hsien Yang, runs Singapore Telecommunications, the biggest local firm of all.

Admirers of Singapore will say that the concentration of power stems simply from its members' remarkable talent, not their connections.

Lee has never had any rivals. The ruling People's Action Party (PAP) controls all but two seats in parliament and selected him unanimously as prime minister, as did the party's executive committee and the cabinet.

So what is changing in Singapore? How dramatic are the changes? There has been a relaxation of restrictions on busking and bungee jumping. Not exactly revolutionary.

But why change anything. Singapore changed from third world to first in a generation. The economy is still going strong: in the second quarter, it posted growth of almost 12%, albeit compared with a low base during the same period last year, when the region was hit by an outbreak of the SARS respiratory disease.

Business as normal. Steady as she goes.

And Bangkok's scary choices for mayor....

July 26, 2004

On August 29th some 4 million voters can go to the polls to elect Bangkok's new mayor. 28 candidates have already submitted applications for the position. Among the favorites are a sex tycoon and women's rights activist.

Recent polls have shown that Mr Chuwit Kamolvisit, known as Bangkok's massage parlour king, and Ms Pavena Hongsakul, a former member of Parliament who gained prominence for fighting abuse of women and children, are current favourites.

Mr Chuwit's is well known for his vocal attacks on police corruption - he claims they extracted small fortunes in bribes from his entertainment empire - and disillusionment over mainstream politics. There are also allegations about his involvement in the demolition of the complex at Sukhumvit Soi 8 and 10  last year.

Encouragingly for Chuwit one voter said to the press 'I don't care if Chuwit's a bad man. 'It is not like politics isn't full of bad people already.'

Another candidate is maverick politician Chalerm Yoobamrung, a former policeman once charged with, but not indicted on, gambling charges. More recently he strongly defending his youngest son who was acquitted in the killing of a policeman in a nightclub brawl.

Mr Apirak Kosayodhin, is running for the opposition Democrat Party, which traditionally scores well in city elections. He drew No 1 on the ballot form.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's ruling party,Thai Rak Thai, is determined to secure the mayor's seat and appears to have thrown its weight behind Ms Pavena, who, confusingly, insists she is running as an independent.

To add a little more colour to the race, Ms Leena Jungawat, a perennial contestant who jabs fun at her rivals, appeared with her usual entourage of transvestites in fancy dress and a band of musicians.

If victorious, she promises that citizens will no longer have to queue at city offices, but civil servants will instead go to their homes to serve them.

Expect a mud-slinging campaign; expect many promises; and expect that many votes can be bought !

Sweet FA...

July 25, 2004

I wish to publicly make it known that I have at no time had any relationship in any form with any member of England's football management.

On current evidence I may be one of few people that can make this claim.

We know that David Beckham looks on Sven Eriksson as a father figure. But he is clearly more than a chip off the old block !

The latest news from the FA is that England coach Sven-Goran Eriksson did indeed have an affair with a Football Association (FA) secretary. Sven, the Swedish Casanova; the iceman appears an unlikely babe magnet although his gbp5 million a year contract must have some appeal.

His latest conquest, a secretary at the FA (which apparently used to mean Football Association), Faria Alam, also scored with Mark Palios, the FA Chief Executive.

Its no longer Bonk it like Beckham - its Bonk it like the whole of the Football Association ! Mr. Eriksson has embarrassed his employers and it may well be time that after disappointing World and European Championships that he moved on. However a recently signed contract extension (to 2008) would be expensive to terminate.

The world's most unlikely jogger

July 19 2004

My baby brother's allergy to all forms of vertical exercise is nigh on legendary. It is remarkable what a few months in hospital can do to a person....

Tim (yes, he does have a name !) was very sick for some eight months; laid up in hospital; in and out of surgery and close to not making it. Too close.

He is the sunny one of the family; not much has ever phased him; not even eight months in hospital. It was not a set back so much as a rejuvenating experience. He tells him wife and family that it was a good job that he was ill because it has made them all happier, closer and not take each other for granted!

Now he is back at work; fit; strong; and mad enough that he has started running for charity. His first run will be for the Sue Ryder Foundation over 10 kilometres; but this is just a small step compared to running a marathon next year.

You can follow his fund raising efforts here : www.justgiving.com/redshoes

We are a funny old family; scattered over the planet we do not see eachother often. Tim and his family went through more agonies in eight months than most of us want to in our lives. And he is still smiling; maybe less so after a 10k run !!! I am happy to watch from a distance and an armchair. Good luck and well done!

Sue Ryder Care

In the UK Sue Ryder Care provides hospice care and neurological care. Its hospices and care centres offer a range of services including long-term and respite residential care, day care centres and home care. It cares for patients and residents with a wide range of illnesses including cancer, multiple sclerosis and Huntington's disease.

Why Butler is a warning shot

Errors of judgment in the lead-up to war were the responsibility of many

Leader
Sunday July 18, 2004
The Observer

On first reading, the report from Lord Butler's enquiry seemed another Establishment closing of ranks. By today it is becoming clear that it is a more subtle indictment of the processes of British government, the ramifications of which will become clearer in the weeks ahead. Critics of the war will find justification for their opposition. For those who supported the war in Iraq, such as this newspaper, there is much that makes disturbing reading.

The Blair government has been a good government. It would be a tragedy if it were to fall on questions of style over substance. Yes, the Butler report is disturbing reading. It does not exonerate either Blair or those around him. But neither does it make the case for the Prime Minister's resignation. Number 10 has been sent a warning shot. It should heed it.

Weapons of mass deception; the case against Tony Blair

17 July 2004

Labour MP Geraldine Smith details the case against Tony Blair in the article below following the issue of Lord Butler's report on the intelligence, or lack of it, that led Britain to support the war in Iraq.

She is right; and she was not the only one that was misled. Read some of my comments on Iraq from last year.

What Ms. Smith fails to do is give us any credible alternative to Blair as a leader and a moderate and electable voice for the labour party. I just cannot see Gordon Brown as a man of the people.

No sense from Arroyo

16 July 2004

South East Asian nations are always cautious when it comes to open criticism of each other. Which makes "The Nation's" strong editorial condemning the Philippine pull out of Iraq even more damning.

And The Nation is correct. Newly re-elected Gloria Arroyo has lost far more than she has gained in giving in so readily to terrorist demands from Iraq. Worse still she has jeopardised the safety of many many migrant workers in that country and across the Middle East.

Manila enjoyed huge US financial and military support; it has its own significant internal terror problems. And now it has said that it will give in to their demands to save one person at the risk on many.

Withdrawal sends the wrong signal

The Nation; Bangkok, 15 July 2004

In what is being referred to in diplomatic circles as the “Southeast Asian approach” to solving a dilemma, the Philippines announced yesterday that it had started pulling its 51-man contingent out of Iraq after insurgents threatened to kill Angelo de la Cruz, a Filipino truck driver they had taken hostage. There is nothing peculiarly regional about Manila’s surrender. It is simply bad policy and poor leadership. Not only has President Gloria Arroyo hurt her country’s international standing by caving in to the threats, she has also put millions of Filipinos, Thais and other foreigners working in the Middle East at risk from terrorists who now know it may well be worth their while to try to grab more hostages to achieve their political ends.

Standing firm in the face of demands from hostage-takers – especially abductors as vile and ruthless as those operating in Iraq – is never easy it. De la Cruz’s case had attracted huge sympathy in the Philippines, where the country’s foreign workers are lionised for the money they send home. De la Cruz, like an estimated 3,000 of his countrymen, was in Iraq trying to earn money for his family of eight. Arroyo’s government said it hoped its actions “would touch the heart” of de la Cruz’s kidnappers.

Manila of all places should know better. The country has been beset by its own kidnapping problems for almost two decades. In the cities, criminal gangs have made preying on ethnic Chinese businessmen a lucrative industry while in the jungles militant Muslim groups such as Abu Sayyaf have funded their insurgency by seizing missionaries, foreigners and Christian villagers. And Manila’s inconsistent approach of sometimes negotiating, sometimes paying ransoms and sometimes using force has only ever encouraged more kidnappings.

Much to the Philippines’ ignominy, it is the first country to yield to abductors’ demands in Iraq. The governments of Bulgaria, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Turkey and the US all refused to negotiate and with each video-taped killing the revulsion and condemnation of the militants’ grisly tactics only further eroded their claims to be acting with a legitimate political goal.

The fact that the kidnappers – a group calling itself the Islamic Army in Iraq – had seized a Filipino only underscored their desperation. The “humanitarian contribution” Manila made to the multinational force was small – barely four dozen troops – and the men were due to be withdrawn in a month anyway. Forcing the Filipinos out 30 days early achieves nothing in strategic sense.

In cynical domestic political terms, it makes no sense either. Arroyo was re-elected to a second six-year term last month. She had nothing to fear by making the tough decision. In terms of saving lives, one must question why such top-level attention isn’t paid to the country’s ferry services or the state of its roads, which kill far more Filipinos every year. Manila’s decision has made the world a more dangerous place.

Sense from the US Senate

15 July 2004

The US Senate had the good sense to throw out a proposed Constitutional Amendment supported by President GW Bush that would have banned same sex marriages in the US.

The US Constitution has only been amended 17 times in history; almost always to extend not to restrict individual freedoms.

Good sense prevailed here. The Republicans will make this issue a part of their re-election campaign. They will argue that the "American family" is under threat. Sorry but with divorce rates at the levels they are at the American family is already under threat; and anything that allows people who love each other to enjoy the rights and opportunities of marriage should be good news for society.

A confused agenda at the International Aids Conference

15 July 2004

This week Bangkok has played host to the XVth International Aids Conference. With its infamous sex industry Bangkok is an appropriate city to host a conference that has the support of the UN and many of the world's global leaders.

The fundamental need for such a conference is to arrive at an agreed agenda that will have a significant impact on preventing AIDS. As simple as that.

This conference was of such import that it drew Nelson Mandela to Bangkok for what may well be his last major public conference; he drew attention to the need to address tuberculosis and its link to HIV sufferers.

But the meeting appears to have been hijacked by voices that are "anti-US whatever the issue." The debate is less over what needs to be done to prevent AIDS; but about the role of the US in fighting this killer epidemic.

The US has hardly helped the debate with a newly launched programme supporting sexual abstinence as a pillar of its policy. This is a bit rich from a country that has the world's largest pornography industry, that brought you the "Joy of Sex" and that has television shows that reflect an open attitude to sexuality throughout society.

Abstinence is not the answer; that just leaves people ill prepared when they do discover sex. The answers lie in education, condom use, needle exchange programs, shared medical knowledge, and the provision of affordable drugs through internationally supported programs.

Time Asia reports on LCCs in Asia

14 July 2004

Time magazine reports this week on the rise, opportunity and issues for low cost airlines in Asia.

There are some interesting comments in the article, which is also something of a tribute to poster-bit Tony Frenandes, the CEO of Air Asia.

Air Asia expects to fly 4 million passengers this year, twice as many as in 2003.

Air Asia's 18 planes are expected to increase by another 80 planes over the next five years. That must have Boeing and Airbus camped outside his office.

In Indonesia only 1% of the population has been on an airplane; 6% of Malaysians. As incomes rise; air fares fall and routes become more accessible to low cost start ups in Asia air travel will continue to increase by over 5% a year up to 8% in China.

All that said and done, Fernandes does not expect budget airlines to create the same upheaval for the big carriers in Asia as they have in the USA and Europe. The LCCs only have 2% of the existing capacity in the region.  There is also a much tighter web of regulation that protects the big carriers. There are also fewer secondary airports. Above all else the big Asian carriers, Thai, Cathay and Singapore Airlines for example, all have costs much lower than comparable US and European carriers so the gap between the big guys and the LCCs in Asia is not so wide. Therefore the big carriers can sell some tickets at prices that compete well with the LCCs.

The biggest threat to LCCs in Asia may not be existing big airlines but new start up LCCs. Tiger and Jetstar Asia are due to start up this year from Singapore and NokAir is about to debut in Thailand.

LCC Ticket Pricing

14 July 2004

There was an article in Thailand's "The Nation" newspaper last week comparing domestic airfares offered by NokAir, Air Asia and One-Two-Go. The article stated that Air Asia had nine levels of fare for each flight; NokAir has five, and that both airlines will sell only a few tickets at the lowest price and will sell those to people who book early for their off-peak and weekday flights.

So The Nation rationalised that the fairest pricing was offered by One-Two-Go who price every ticket at the same price irrespective of whether you book the same day or three months in advance.

The Nation's misplace egalitarianism really misses the point of the budget airlines. They are not looking at filling their planes with last minute travelers. If you need to fly today or tomorrow then you have to expect to pay a premium for that flexibility. Even the big carriers practice yield management and charge a premium for the flexibility of last minute travel.

Naughty NokAir shows its Spirit

12 July 2004

NokAir, the airline whose recruitment advertisements sort to hire "living" flight attendants really deserves the bird for this one.

NokAir's business class is called Nok Plus. The website link to Nok Plus is here: http://www.nokair.com/welcome.aspx?pg=spiritplus

But why does it refer to Spirit Plus? Spirit is a Detroit based LCC with business class seats called Spirit Plus. The link to Spirit Plus is here: http://www.spiritair.com/welcome.aspx?pg=spiritplus

Don't they look rather similar; identical in fact. I hope they run their airline a little more professionally than their web site!

The 2004 US Election

9 July 2004

Why does it go on so long and why are the candidates so average? On December 1 2002 Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts announced that he would seek the Democratic nomination for president. The election itself is not until November 2004.

In Canada they recently finished an election that ran for six weeks from start to finish. In other countries the leader of the opposition is known and visible. Not in the US. One of the weaknesses of the US style of government is that there is no one who you can turn to who is the official leader and voice of the opposition. In Australia, Canada, Britain, Thailand the opposition has a voice; often a potent voice.

In the US the opposition voice is usually the senate member who most wants to get his or her face onto TV. It is only in the election campaign that there is a real voice for an alternative government.

We now have an opposition in the US that has a real and potent voice. A combination of Kerry and Edwards looks potent and covers the North and South of the US and both privileged and blue collar America.

This is not where the Bush White House thought they would be four months from election day. They were confident that a sitting war president would sail to re-election voted in by a still nervous America.

But: it may be that the US is changing; while most Americans probably are not that concerned with the fabricated evidence that took them to war in Iraq, they are hugely distressed at daily killings of American soldiers and the threat to civilians in Iraq. It is unlikely that anyone in the US feels any safer now that on 12 September 2002, despite the Iraq war and the questionable efforts of the Dept of Homeland Security.

Bush's government said they would make the country safer by taking on Iraq, but it is not. And therein lies a huge opportunity for the Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Over the next four months this site will track what I hope is the unlamented demise of the Bush administration. One strong advocate for change is Michael Moore; the Guardian review of his biting documentary is here.

Hong Kong's political birth

July 2, 2004

Last year the people of Hong Kong were driven to the streets by a collapsed economy, ill considered security legislation (aricle 23), the mismanagement of the SARS outbreak and frustration with Beijing appointed leaders of Hong Kong who had forgotten that they were there for the people of Hong Kong.

So what to expect one year later. The economy has improved; Beijing after threats earlier in the year has recently turned warm and fuzzy inviting previously banned Hong Kong democrats to meet in Beijing and a better prepared government has been promoting alternative entertainment to keep the demonstrators off the streets.

And then there is the weather. An unpleasantly humid day with a temperature over 100F. And the smog at its worst over the city.

Surely no one would want a long hot sweaty crowded march on such a day. They would all stay in air conditioned comfort and do what Hong Kong people do best - eat and shop.

Maybe yesterday Hong Kong found its real political voice. The police say 200,000 people marched. Apple Daily and Bloomberg have reported 530,000. Lets split the difference and say 315,000. That is a phenomenal number.

The BBC quotes from a few of the particpants:

I am out here visiting a friend who lives in Hong Kong, and I can say that I have never seen a more peaceful, well organised and impressive display of people power. Not only were the people sweltering in oppressive heat and humidity, they were also surrounded by literally hundreds, if not thousands of police officers. I found the march to be very powerful. Whether or not it makes a difference remains to be seen. Does the international community have the power or the inclination to stand up to mainland China for the rights of the people of Hong Kong?
Robbie McLaren, Edinburgh, Scotland

It has been a great day. The march have taught me the value of democracy and liberty. I am proud of being one of the participants. It is a meaningful and touching activity. The determination of the Hong Kong people have once again been shown. I hope that our demands will be fulfilled. I wish our little steps will change the history.
Jeffrey , Hong Kong, China

I'm so touched by my fellow citizens. We all showed the good discipline and our pursuit for a full democracy in Hong Kong. I was glad to see all walks of life, elderly and youngster, in the procession. I'm sure our dream will come true soon!
KB Leung, Hong Kong, China

Blissfully, ignoring reality, Zhang Qiyue, the spokeswoman for China's Foreign Ministry, said at a news conference in Beijing that Hong Kong was already democratic. "The residents of Hong Kong enjoy real and unprecedented democracy, which can be witnessed by the international community," she said.

The government-controlled news media in China largely ignored the protest on Thursday, and it was not clear how quickly word of it would spread on the mainland. China had drastically reduced the number of mainland tour groups allowed to visit Hong Kong in the last week. But the internet is a great friend to those who want to find truth.

Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, is always thoughtful when discussing Hong Kong affairs. He did have a genuine love for the city and its people. Speaking in Jakarta yesterday he urged China to give Hong Kong's citizens more say in running their own affairs.

"Hong Kong is a sophisticated, well-educated society, and I think that it would be sensible for the leadership in Beijing to recognise that," he told a press conference.

There was, Mr Patten said, a debate "raging in China about the extent to which politics is going to have to change to accommodate what's happening socially and economically."

"My own view is that if they trusted the people in Hong Kong it would make the results more rather than less successful."

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Great pictures; news extracts and commentary on the march from the blog EastSouthWestNorth; just follow the link.
 

Bangkok's new subway

July 1, 2004

http://www.mrta.co.th/eng/index.htm (Link to the Mass Rapid Transit Authority English language web site)

To be a world class city you need to have a subway system! And on Saturday July 3rd Bangkok's first subway line will open for public use. This is the new underground line; and should not be confused with the overground BTS.                                       

The subway line will be opened by His Majesty the King who with the Royal Family will go to Hua Lamphong at 5:30 PM and ride the subway all the way from Hua Lamphong to Bangsue. The line runs for 21 kms with 18 stations. From Hua Lamphong terminus it runs along Rama IV before turning North up Ratchadaphisek and Asoke before turning back to the West and Chatuchak market.

There are three links to the BTS; at Silom/Saladaeng; at Sukhumvit/Asoke and at Chatuchak/Mo Chit. But the services are run by separate companies so you have to exit one station to access the other and as yet there will be no common fares or stored value cards.

The single line will then be open for public use. The first year target is 250,000 passengers a day. Until August 12, 2004 the fare will be a flat rate of 10 baht. After then the fares are fixed between 12-31 baht with half price for children under 12 and old people over 65.

Revenue from July 3 to August 12 will be donated to His Majesty and Her Majesty for Royal Projects.

Anything that relieves the traffic gridlock and makes it easier to get around the city should be welcomed. In the same way that the BTS has spurred property prices expect the Metro to do the same; perhaps especially along Ratchadaphisek, north of Rama IX.