Global Village accident

28 February 2010

The Gulf News is reporting that one person was killed and 15 people were injured after a partial collapse of the Indian pavilion at the Global Village on Saturday.

Police said the person killed was a woman, but they could not yet identify her nationality.

The area was cordoned off after the incident, which authorities said was due to extremely heavy rains that lashed Dubai and other emirates.

The rain on Saturday also caused traffic delays in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah due to low visibility and clustered waters on the roads.
 

How to manage a pilot shortage

27 February 2010

Emirates has found itself into something of a mess. There are new airplanes and new routes. But recruitment has only just started after being frozen for a year; crew are suddenly working some 20% additional hours; and there is a shortage of both cabin and cockpit crews.

There are pilots who have handed in their resignation but are being asked to delay their  leaving date; and they get to negotiate the terns of their short term extension.

But the concern is that the much belated recruitment drive will not cover both the pilots needed and cover those leaving.

One pilot described this as the perfect storm: the pilot workforce is reluctant to help out (terms and conditions and bonuses have all been eroded) or they are at maximum hours already; there is no flex in the system with pilot numbers cut too low; the training lag will add months to get anyone that does join on the line (and there are not enough trainers to train them anyway) - and finally pilots are leaving at an increasing rate.

EK could consider direct entry captains or contract pilots but the best source of these is Emirates itself. The supply is drying up.

How do Emirates pilots feel about this: these videos will give you a good clue:

How to Cope With a Pilot Shortage 1
 How to Cope With a Pilot Shortage 2
 How to Cope With a Pilot Shortage 3
 How to Cope With a Pilot Shortage 4
 How to Cope With a Pilot Shortage 5
 How to cope with a pilot shortage 6

One example quoted by EK insiders talks of an airbus pilot who had resigned but then agreed with EK HR on their "Golden handshake" by postponing his notice period. The deal he then signed comprised a 50% higher net-salary PLUS a guarantee of no scheduled night turnarounds and no ULR flights during his added on time. For the crew it is every man for himself. Seniority, fairness, or morality are less important than keeping the planes in the air.

Meanwhile cabin crew have been asked to postpone April and May vacations until later in the year to cover imminent staff shortages.

Actually it is sad; maybe it is part of the overall erosion of the airline industry. But Emirates grew quickly to be the Middle East company that everyone wanted to work for.  People were proud to join. Yet for many in the industry it appears to have become a laughing stock.

And the ultimate worry is that the erosion of morale; the lack of support for the pilots and the increasing hours being flown may erode safety at the airline. Are lives being put at greater risk now that say five years ago. If the answer to that is Yes then Emirates has a problem that badly needs to be fixed..

A costly decision

27 February 2010 - The Economist

"The wheels of justice move slowly in Thailand. But when they do, it has become clear that a former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and his allies are often disappointed. On Friday February 26th, the country’s Supreme Court ruled on 76 billion baht ($2.3 billion) in frozen accounts that belong to Mr Thaksin and his family. At least 46 billion baht now belongs to the state, with the rest to be returned to the ex-leader. But the partial victory may ring hollow for the dispossessed tycoon. The judges decided that Mr Thaksin had concealed his stake in the family conglomerate, Shin Corp, and boosted its bottom line with favourable policies. That goes to the heart of the main criticism against Mr Thaksin—that his meteoric political career was always in service of his own profits.

The verdict was keenly awaited, both by a government set on burying Mr Thaksin and his fervent red-shirt wearing supporters, who want to bring him back. Neither will be entirely happy. Supporters will complain that the courts are biased, while opponents fret that he could use his unfrozen funds to fight on. An unknown is the legal ramifications of the guilty verdict against Mr Thaksin. He was found to have changed the concession fee paid to the government by his family’s phone company and illegally used state money to finance the sale of satellite equipment to Myanmar. Such tricks allowed him to become “unusually rich” in office. More criminal charges may follow.

Mr Thaksin, who lives in exile in Dubai, argues that he was rich before he went into politics. The judges seem to agree, as the unfrozen 30 billion baht represents his family’s assets before he became prime minister in 2001. It was the sale of Shin Corp in January 2006 to Singapore’s Temasek Holdings that cooked Mr Thaksin’s goose. The sale was structured to take advantage of stockmarket rules that exempted capital gains tax, infuriating voters in Bangkok who had had enough of Mr Thaksin. Months of street protests and a botched election left an uneasy stalemate that the army broke by staging a coup in September of that year. The political wounds have yet to heal.

The seizure of Mr Thaksin’s assets is the latest judicial blow to a once-mighty empire. In 2007, the Constitutional Court dissolved his political party, Thai Rak Thai. A second party, which won a post-coup election, was disbanded the following year for campaign fraud. Mr Thaksin was also convicted in absentia in 2008 to two years in jail over the sale of government land to his now ex-wife, who is appealing a separate jail sentence for asset concealment. That the courts have spared Mr Thaksin’s sworn enemies, such as the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the rowdy royalist group that occupied Bangkok’s international airports, infuriates his supporters.

Government officials insist that it is only a matter of time before PAD leaders get their day in court. But there is not much haste in their cases. Some have friends in high places. Moreover, Thai judges are not used to playing an activist role. Since 2006, they have had to weigh in on tricky political cases, even if they are ill prepared, says Duncan McCargo, a Thai expert at the University of Leeds. A backlash from the pro-Thaksin brigade is inevitable. The long-term solution is for Thailand’s political leaders to “talk to each other” and work together, if the nation is not to become ungovernable, he says.

To Thailand’s breathless press, Friday was “judgment day”, a decisive blow in a political war. In reality, the ruling is far from the final word. Mr Thaksin continues to protest his innocence and encourages his supporters to do the same. A mass rally is planned next month in Bangkok. Similar threats to mobilise supporters ahead of the court verdict fizzled, with only a flurry of small advance protests and a muted response on the day. Some momentum has been lost. But the red shirts have strong support in the north and north-east, where Mr Thaksin is still popular.

The current prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, cannot afford to rest easily. His government has held together for 14 months, which exceeds the tenure of the two previous pro-Thaksin governments. But he is overly reliant on the army and has yet to convince millions of rural and working-class Thais that he can do anything that Mr Thaksin did not do better. An election would settle the question of whether Thailand wants Mr Thaksin back, as he insists. Mr Abhisit says the country isn’t ready for elections. But sooner or later, he must face the electorate, if Thai democracy is to limp on."

Most of it now; the rest later

26 February 2010

The Supreme Court in Thailand agreed today that Thaksin had abused his power as Prime Minister.  As this was the Supreme Court there is no appeal.

After reading out a lengthy seven-hour verdict, the judges said the court would seize 46 billion baht (1.4 billion dollars) of the assets from the sale of his telecoms firm, which were frozen after the 2006 coup that toppled him.

Thaksin will stand to get about Bt30 billion back. But he will not see it in a hurry. The Court ruled that Thaksin and Pojaman cannot get the remaining Bt30.247 billion immediately. The amount still has to be frozen, pending settlements.

The judgments were as follows:

1. Does the Supreme Court have the legitimacy to deliberate this Bt76 billion asset seizure case as opposed by the defendants?

The nine-member panel of Supreme Court judges voted unanimously that the Court has the legitimacy to deliberate this case.

2. Does the Asset Examination Committee, formed by the coup makers, have the legitimacy to pursue the case against the defendants?

The judges voted "Yes". Moreover, the National Counter Corruption Commission has the legitimacy to follow up the case as left over by the Asset Examination Committee after its expiration. Both were entitled by law to file this case.

3. Did Thaksin conceal his assets and used nominees as a cover-up?

The judges said guilty. Thaksin did hold shares in Shin Corp during his premiership through nominees. The defendant still had power to change directors in Shin Corp and control the company's policies. Thaksin and wife Pojaman Shinawatra did hold shares in Shin Corp.

4. Did the defendant cause damage to the state with his alleged alteration of the telecom concession fee to excise tax?

The judges voted guilty verdict. The defendant abused his power to cause damage to the state by more than Bt60 billion.

5. Did Thaksin abuse his power to benefit AIS in the prepaid service?

The judges voted guilty verdict.

6. Did Thaksin abuse his power to amend AIS concession on the roaming service?

The judges ruled that the benefits fell to Temasek Holding because the effect of amendment happened after the sale of the shares.

7. On failure to enforce satellite concession contract resulting in public damage of Bt20 billion and resulting in the benefits to Shin Corp and Thaicom.

The judges voted guilty verdict.

8. On the Eximbank's Bt4 billion loans to Burma to benefit Shin Corp and Thaicom.

The judges ruled that Thaksin abused his power to benefit Shin Corp and Thaicom.

So he was guilty on all counts. So why did they not take everything?

The amount to be seized equates to the difference between the Bt76.6bn that Singapore’s Temasek paid when the family sold its 48 per cent stake in Shin Corp in January 2006 and the Bt30bn that Mr Thaksin and his wife listed on their asset declarations.

The judges said the confiscation of all his assets was not fair for the defendant. Which is a very interesting position to take. Instead of this simply being a matter of law; it became a matter of what might or might not be considered fair. “To confiscate all of the wealth of Mr Thaksin would be unfair to Mr Thaksin,” they said.

But the rest will still get taken at some future date. What will follow is a series of criminal charges against him. First, the National Counter Corruption Commission will have to file suit against Thaksin for lying about his assets. Second, the Finance Ministry would also like to get at least Bt12 billion in unpaid tax from Panthongtae and Pinthongta.

Then other state agencies, such as the TOT, will file suits against Thaksin for creating damage to their revenue or income. The rulings from the Supreme Court are clear that the state agencies faced damage from Thaksin's abuse of power.

As a result, these plaintiffs will further request that the remaining Bt30.247 billion be frozen pending the outcome of criminal suits. These cases will be fought for the next 10 years until it reaches the Supreme Court.

Thaksin said in a video speech from exile in Dubai that the ruling was "very political" and a "joke for the world". Yet the Supreme Court's decision can still be seen as an attempted balancing act and an attempt to defuse the political tension.

Perhaps the most telling analysis of all comes from Bloomberg: Shin shares gained 121 percent from when Thaksin took office on Feb. 9, 2001, to when his family sold the company on Jan. 23, 2006, compared with a 128 percent gain in the benchmark SET index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Siam Cement Pcl, Thailand’s fourth-biggest company, which is controlled by the monarchy’s investment arm, gained 717 percent in that time.

“Whether Thaksin used his influence to benefit his companies is for the courts to decide,” said Vikas Kawatra, head of institutional broking at Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Pcl, the nation’s biggest brokerage by trading volume. “We analyze the stocks on fundamentals and price movements and based on past performance versus the SET it appears his companies performed no better than others in the benchmark.”

It is Judgment day for Thaksin

26 February 2010

Today is the day that the coup makers justify their actions back on 19 September 2006. One of the justifications offered by the coup leaders then was that Mr Thaksin had abused his position as prime minister to enrich himself and his family.

That argument is now at the centre of the case before the Supreme Court.

A quick recap - with a tip of the hat to BangkokPundit for a summary of events leading to a court judgment Friday on confiscation of the wealth of billionaire ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose political fortunes have closely tracked the country's years of political turbulence:

February 2001: Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecommunications tycoon, becomes prime minister after his Thai Rak Thai Party wins a sweeping election victory.

August 2001: The Constitutional Court acquits Thaksin of concealing assets while he was a Cabinet minister in 1997-98. A conviction would have forced him out of office.

February 2005: Thaksin re-elected in a landslide.

February 2006: Rallies accusing Thaksin of corruption and abuse of power attract tens of thousands of people. Thaksin dissolves Parliament and calls elections.

April 2006: Thaksin's party wins 57 percent of the votes as the opposition boycotts the elections, later nullified by the courts.

Sept. 19, 2006: The military stages a bloodless coup while Thaksin is overseas and sets up an interim government.

May 2007: Thaksin's party is dissolved by court for election law violations; he and 110 party executives are barred from politics for five years.

December 2007: The People's Power Party, a proxy for Thaksin's disbanded party, easily wins elections and assembles a coalition government.

February 2008: Thaksin welcomed by supporters on his return from exile.

May 2008: The People's Alliance for Democracy — popularly known as the Yellow Shirts — launches protests against the pro-Thaksin government.

July 2008: Thaksin's wife Pojaman, her brother and her secretary are convicted of tax evasion. She is sentenced to three years in jail and released on bail.

August 2008: Thousands of anti-Thaksin protesters take over the prime minister's office compound.

October 2008: Thaksin is sentenced to two years in jail for breaking a conflict-of-interest law, but has already fled to London.

November 2008: Anti-Thaksin protesters take over Bangkok's two airports, stranding hundreds of thousands of travelers.

December 2008: Protesters vacate the airports and the prime minister's office after a court finds the pro-Thaksin ruling party guilty of electoral fraud, forcing its dissolution. With the backing of the military, opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is chosen prime minister.

April 2009: Pro-Thaksin demonstrators, dubbed the Red Shirts, swarm a regional summit in Pattaya, forcing its cancellation as Asian leaders are hurriedly evacuated. Several days afterward they riot in Bangkok, leaving two people dead before the army restores order.

Feb. 26, 2010: Thailand's Supreme Court is to rule on whether Thaksin abused his position as prime minister for personal gain, and whether $2.29 billion of his assets should be confiscated.

The Assets Scrutiny Committee was set up by the military junta after the coup; it was weighted with anti-Thaksin investigators. It is their evidence that has been at the heart of this case. Thaksin has for obvious reasons never appeared before the court.

So what will the court do? If they take away of his [Thaksin Shinawatra's] money, they are vulnerable charges of double standards and they are likely to give rise to some kind of a backlash.

On the other hand, if they were not to take away his money, this might be even worse for them, because that was the rationale for the coup.

So they will take something; maybe the answer is to take Thaksin's money but leave his ex-wife's funds untouched namely Bt34 billion that is claimed to belong to Khunying Pojaman na Pombejra.

Thaksin said on his website www.thaksinlive.com at 4am on Friday that all of his money and assets were derived from years of working hard, not from corruption as alleged.

Thaksin said that he had more than 60 billion baht in assets in 1994 and these assets were made known to the general public.

“No matter what the court ruling will be today, I will never forget the kindness and support that the people have given to me,” Thaksin said.

A legal source said the Supreme Court judges have been debating this point of legality since Pojaman claimed she owned Bt34 billion of the Bt76-billion frozen assets well before her ex-husband Thaksin Shinawatra took office in 2001. She then transferred this amount to her son Panthongtae and her stepbrother Bhanapot Damapong.

In her closing statement presented before the court on February 9, Pojaman insisted she owned 693 million shares in Shin Corp, worth about Bt34 billion, well before Thaksin became prime minister.

So there is one solution; take Thai baht 42 billion from Thaksin and leave 34 billlion for the ex wife.

But in reality; unless Temasek had acquired Shin Corp this Baht76 billion would not exist. And owners and shareholders sell their companies every day. Thaksin had the good fortune to oversee a telecoms company during the boom times of mobile telephony. Even the ICT Minister in the Thaksin government admits that the state enterprises have actually gained more money at the concession amendments than without them.

Information and Communications Technology Minister Ranongruk Suwanchawee last week said none of the telecom concession amendments over the years had financially damaged the state coffers. On the contrary, they have boosted state revenue and assets to the tune of at least Bt100 billion.

"There is no loss, but only more revenue and assets by the state telecom agencies, and the public has gained more benefit," she added.

Good business or criminal business?

This was the 2006 report on the Temasek sale:

"Ample rich indeed

29 January 2006

Ample Rich is a wonderfully named company for the Prime Minister of Thailand. He is that and more. And this Virgin Islands company is now at the heart of the debate over the sale of the Shinawatra family's stake in Shin Corporation to Temasek Holdings of Singapore.

The deal was worth Bt73.2 billion at Bt 49.25 a share for the full 49.6 per cent (1.4 billion shares) held by the Shinawatra/Damapong families. This was their entire stake in Shin Corp.

Temasek paid the full mount to the Shinawatra/Damapong group on 23rd January in exchange for the 49.6 per cent stake in Shin.

The group’s responsibility was to gather all of the 1.4 billion shares of Shin Corp for delivery on the day of the transaction on the Thai stock exchange. But before January 20, the group had only 38-39 per cent of Shin Corp’s stocks under its name. The remaining 10.7 per cent, or 329,200,000 shares, were held by Ample Rich, which has its headquarters in Singapore and s registered in the British Virgin Islands, a widely used tax shelter.

To have a 49.6 beneficial interest in Shin Corp somebody in the Shinawatra/Damapong families had to own the nominee company. Prime Minister Thaksin set up Ample Rich in June 1999 and transferred 329,200,000 shares of Shin Corp to this company in a big-lot transaction through the Thai stock exchange. This resulted in a reduction of his holding from 23.75 per cent to 11.88 per cent. On that same day, Boonklee Plangsiri, Shin’s chief executive, clarified that the transaction would not have any significant bearing on the ownership or management structure of the conglomerate, since Thaksin was the 100 per cent owner of Ample Rich.

On January 20th 2006 Ample Rich sold 164,600,000 shares of Shin Corp each to the two children of Thaksin – Pinthongta and Panthongthae – for Bt1 a share. It is clear that the Shin stake held by Ample Rich had not changed hands throughout the years. This was three days before the takeover deal was to be publicly announced.

Why would Ample Rich sell Shin stocks for Bt1 apiece when the stocks were trading at Bt47-Bt49 on the stock exchange. On Monday 23rd January the two children made a profit of Bt15.88 billion. Remember Prime Minister Thaksin has even said that the decision to sell was made by the children so that their father could concentrate on politics. Has their been a breech of the securities law involving insider information. You decide.

For the Prime Minister the answer is clear: “The hue and cry about the deal boils down to this: envy for my money,” he said. To get ample rich is indeed glorious to misquote a great Chinese leader!"

Jaws and the Dubai Mall

26 February 2010

The Dubai Mall aquarium was closed at lunchtime on Thursday after a leak and flooding.

Civil Defence confirmed that the aquarium has a minor crack and that water was leaking.

Footage obtained by the Gulf News showed water flowing out of the aquarium, and shoppers lifting up clothes to wade through. The Lower Ground and Ground Floors were evacuated and closed.

Meanwhile Chairman of Emaar Properties Mohammed Al Abbar, has brushed aside the rumours that the aquarium in Dubai Mall has a leakage.

He said there was a "technical fault in the operating device", but brought under control without any damages or losses. Quite why he has to say anything before he has seen the pictures and heard honest accounts from his people is a mystery. But not a great surprise since honesty is not a hallmark of CEOs in the UAE.

The aquarium features the world's largest viewing panel at 32.8 meters (107 ft 7 in) wide and 8.3 meters high. It was designed to hold more than 33,000 living animals, representing more than 85 species including over 400 sharks and rays combined.

The only runour is that Dubai will now set about building the world's largest Ark !

Thailand Bracing for Ruling on Thaksin’s Assets

25 February 2010 - New York Times

Friday is “judgment day” in Thailand, with a court set to decide whether to confiscate $2.3 billion in frozen assets belonging to the fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The government is warning of potential violence by Mr. Thaksin’s supporters if the ruling goes against him. Soldiers and the police have been put on alert, checkpoints are in place, government buildings are under guard and judges have been offered safe houses.

Some analysts call the warnings propaganda to discredit the opposition, which has said it will mobilize only a small crowd on Friday at the courthouse in Bangkok where the ruling is to be announced.

Months of demonstrations by Mr. Thaksin’s supporters, continuing rumors of coups and small, symbolic acts of violence, like the firing of a grenade into the empty office of the army commander, have set the capital on edge.

Newspapers have stoked the sense of urgency, with daily countdowns to “judgment day” and with headlines like one that appeared on Wednesday, in bold, red type, in The Nation: “Exclusive Interview: Absolutely No Coup.”

Mr. Thaksin, 60, who was overthrown in a coup in 2006, faces the loss of all or some of his frozen assets if the Supreme Court finds that he concealed his ownership of the funds or that he used his office to enrich himself. The assets total 76 billion baht, or $2.3 billion.

Mr. Thaksin has been living abroad since August 2007, having jumped bail and fled a two-year sentence for violating conflict of interest rules in connection with the purchase of land in Bangkok while he was prime minister.

But he has remained a political force at home as he travels the world from his base in Dubai, evading a Thai demand for his extradition.

A telecommunications tycoon, Mr. Thaksin apparently retains enough wealth abroad to finance a nationwide political machine. A seizure of his assets frozen in Thailand should have no effect on this, said Thongchai Winijakul, a Thai historian at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“It has been almost four years, and the movement is getting bigger, bigger, bigger, bigger without this frozen money,” he said.

Communicating by video link, telephone and Twitter, Mr. Thaksin has become a virtual leader of the opposition.

“I don’t want to die outside of Thailand,” he said in a radio address reported Wednesday in The Nation, although he is free to return at any time to serve his prison term. “I want to return to die in my country. I don’t want to return as bones and ashes.”

The former prime minister’s mostly poor and rural supporters remain devoted to him, and most analysts believe that any party he backs would easily win a new election, as they have the last three times, starting in 2001 when he first took office.

As prime minister, Mr. Thaksin mobilized this base with populist policies like low-cost health care and financial assistance, and it is the empowerment of the country’s poor majority that underlies the current political tensions in Thailand. The weight of their vote challenges a tradition-bound establishment of royalists and the urban elite, which has resisted a weakening of Thailand’s paternalistic, top-down power structure.

One sign of the country’s polarization and volatility is that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who heads the smaller Democrat party, is unable even to travel to Mr. Thaksin’s base in the rural heartland for fear of being attacked.

The rising power of the Thai poor is one of two significant dynamics in this difficult period of change, said Charles Keyes, an expert on Thailand at the University of Washington in Seattle. The other is the age and ill health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 82, who has been on the throne for nearly 64 years and whose presence offers the Thai people a sense of identity and continuity.

The king has been in a hospital since September, suffering from a lung infection and other ailments, and has carried out some royal functions there. Although he has no formal political power, his moral authority has held the country together in earlier times of crisis.

His heir, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, does not share his father’s popularity and will inherit his throne but not his aura. This will deprive the establishment of its core and set unpredictable forces in motion, analysts say.

“There’s not going to be a rallying force for the monarchy that there has been,” Mr. Keyes said. “There could be real change.”

The ruling on Friday will be the latest in a series of influential court judgments since the king, in 2006, encouraged judges to take a more assertive role in the country’s conflicts.

Since then, major rulings have mostly gone against Mr. Thaksin. The courts have nullified an election he won in 2006, barred him and 110 of his party’s executives from politics for five years, dissolved two parties linked to him and ruled against both Mr. Thaksin and his former wife in corruption cases.

The current government came to power in December 2008 in a parliamentary vote after a court forced a pro-Thaksin prime minister, Samak Sundaravej, to step down because he had received money for hosting a cooking show on television.

The king has continued to exhort judges; on Monday at a ceremony in the hospital, he urged newly appointed judges, standing at attention in white military-style uniforms, to be brave and to honor the truth.

As the years have passed, a portion of the opposition — known as the red shirts, for the color that they wear at rallies — has shifted from strict allegiance to Mr. Thaksin to a less personal movement that claims to support democracy.

Differences have also emerged among the red shirts over the best way to challenge the government, with its apparently solid backing by the military.

One tactic would be to create turmoil that might bring down the government and force an early election — starting, for example, with violent protests against the confiscation of Mr. Thaksin’s assets.

The other would be to wait until the next scheduled election, in 2012, keeping their base active in the meantime with protests, seminars and rallies calling for Mr. Thaksin’s return.

“The best option for the reds to win is by election,” said Mr. Thongchai, the Thai historian. “No matter what, if they just wait, they have the vote. They are not stupid. They can wait.”

Moving beyond Thaksin

25 February 2010 - Wall Street Journal

Thailand is dreading the Supreme Court's verdict on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's frozen $2.3 billion in assets, scheduled for tomorrow. No matter how his wealth is disposed, given Thailand's political polarization the only certainty is that no one will be satisfied. In fact, the conflict will likely intensify as pro- and anti-Thaksin protagonists hunker down for a long battle of attrition. In these waning years of King Bhumibol Adulyadej's 63-year reign, both sides are desperate to put their stamp on the political system that will emerge in the new era.

Such polarization forms the backdrop for the court's judgement. Mr. Thaksin almost certainly will not be acquitted and receive all of his money back. That would negate the military coup that ousted him in September 2006. Corruption and conflicts of interest were the rationale of the putsch, which subsequently led to the current military-inspired constitution and the dissolution of Mr. Thaksin's two winning political parties. Any vindication of Mr. Thaksin would thus undermine the legitimacy of the army-supported coalition government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. It would also be unacceptable to the People's Alliance for Democracy, the anti-Thaksin civil society group identified by its yellow shirts.

Seizing all of Mr. Thaksin's assets, including those from before he entered politics, would be unsurprising, but this would raise questions at home and abroad about the fairness of the decision and further enrage the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, the pro-Thaksin so-called "red shirts." They will portray confiscation as the culmination of a coordinated campaign of injustice since the coup to marginalize them and deny their grievances. For them, Mr. Thaksin has become less a leader than a figurehead in their pursuit of social justice and struggle for democratic rights. While his administration may have been corrupt, in their view, that just makes him like those who came before him and those who will come after. They admire his legacy of pro-poor policies and Thailand's modernization for the 21st century, both of which disadvantaged powerful elites.

The opposing yellows and their allied army, government and swathes of intelligentsia see Friday's verdict as the final act of political decapitation short of physical demise for a crook and a usurper. To them, the reds are merely Mr. Thaksin's financial lackeys, ignorant and gullible peasants prone to manipulative populism. They are supportive of the longstanding prerogatives, privileges and entitlements of the six-decades-old established political order.

Whatever the outcome, several portents have emerged. The doomsday scenarios for verdict day are overblown, and the outcome has been largely factored in by both sides. The reds rioted disgracefully last April in their large-scale protests in the streets of Bangkok. They lost credibility and legitimacy, but their strength and resolve have enabled them to regroup in less than a year. They are unlikely to resort to the same tactics this time, owing to the absence of backing from the Bangkok middle class, military and other powers-that-be, unlike the yellows who were untouchable when they closed down Bangkok's airports in December 2008.

Herein lies the ultimate danger for Thailand. The reds' sense of disenfranchisement, injustice and alienation will fester as long as their demands and expectations for opportunities and upward mobility are left unaddressed. They have grown into an organic rural-based people's movement that Mr. Thaksin could hardly have imagined when he was deposed. Their ranks may lack leaders of Mr. Thaksin's means and stature but they are gaining foot soldiers and sympathizers by the day. If their rage accumulates indefinitely, the resulting explosions may lead to a spiral of violent confrontation and political instability.

The Abhisit government, the army, the PAD and other establishment forces have systematically demonized Mr. Thaksin as a corrupt populist because they fear the red forces he has unleashed. However, these pro-establishment forces must be aware that their days are numbered as King Bhumibol's reign enters its denouement. They have erected a wall of pro-monarchy legislation and prosecution, but globalization and democratization are working against them. The challenge for them is to eliminate Mr. Thaksin's legacy of corruption and abuses of power while accommodating his followers' grievances, demands and expectations.

The red leaders, on the other hand, need to see through Mr. Thaksin's self-aggrandizing crusade and to reassure their establishment opponents that adjustment and reform need not mean losing it all. Until this mutual recognition and accommodation take place, Thailand is unlikely to find peace, stability and a way forward, only more pain and grief.

Mr. Thitinan is director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Who is backing Emirates now?

25 February 2010

Emirates Airline, Dubai's flagship carrier, was never used as a bargaining chip when the emirate was in talks with Abu Dhabi over funding, the airline's chairman told Zawya Dow Jones on Wednesday.

"We never really talked in any way about any of our strategic companies with Abu Dhabi," Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, who also heads Dubai's Supreme Fiscal Committee, said in an interview at his office at Dubai International Airport. "I know it's always been the rumor."

Dubai last year roiled international markets when it requested a standstill on $26 billion of debt owed by one of its largest government-owned groups, Dubai World. Abu Dhabi has stepped in with $15 billion of financial assistance to help Dubai through the financial crisis. At the time, many people questioned what Dubai would offer Abu Dhabi in return for the cash, with prized assets like Emirates Airline thought to be part of negotiations.

"When you think about what Emirates has achieved I think anyone would want to have equity in it," Sheik Ahmed said. "It's a very successful business for Dubai."

Emirates Group is one of Dubai's most prized assets and one of the fastest growing airlines globally. The carrier indirectly contributes in the region of 40 billion United Arab Emirates dirhams ($10.89 billion) to Dubai's economy each year and is key to the emirate's success story.

"If it wasn't for Emirates, this market wouldn't have been able to grow as it has. It's a huge contribution," Sheik Ahmed said, highlighting the economic benefits to the emirate of a group that employs over 32,000 in Dubai.

The carrier currently operates a fleet of close to 150 wide-body aircraft, including eight A380s. It has a further $55 billion of orders with Airbus and Boeing Co. and plans to increase this order.

"We're in talks with Boeing and Airbus," Sheik Ahmed said. "We're looking at buying more aircraft maybe as much as ten—either 777 or A330s."

Emirates, the largest customer for the giant Airbus A380, also expects to receive a further seven superjumbos by March 2011, he said. Sheik Ahmed, who is also a close relative (uncle) of Dubai's ruler Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, said that despite the global financial crisis, Emirates hasn't had any problem securing aircraft deals. He also didn't rule out the possibility of the state-owned company selling shares in an initial public offering to help finance aircraft, and said that any offering would be well received.

"I think maybe one day," he said. "If Emirates decided to IPO I'm sure it will be good, especially if it's placed within the U.A.E. stock markets."

So if Emirates was not part of the bail-out deal; what has secured the US$25billion of support from Abu Dhabi?

EK's Canadian Air Wars

25 February 2010

The Canadians may be welcoming the world to Vancouver but you had better be traveling on Air Canada. Because Air Canada and the Canadian government are determined to keep foreigners out.

This is despite the fact that Canada stands to reap $480 million dollars in annual economic benefits should the Canadian government approve a plan to expand Emirates service in Canada according to a study commissioned by the Dubai-based carrier.

The study said over 2,800 new jobs would be created in Canada if Emirates were to increase its service to Toronto and add new flights in Calgary and Vancouver.

Currently, Emirates operates three flights weekly from Toronto to Dubai using its new Airbus A380-800 aircraft.

The study, by InterVISTAS Consulting Inc., said over 274,000 new passengers would travel through Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver, should the flight restrictions by Ottawa be lifted.

The study looked at the economic impact of four scenarios; daily and double-daily service to Toronto and daily services to Calgary and Vancouver.

The greatest impact would be in Toronto where 154,818 new passengers and 1,550 new full-time jobs would be created, the study said.

“Emirates has been seeking greater access to Canada for over a decade,” the airline said in a statement.

The move is supported by provincial governments in Ontario, Alberta and Vancouver. Which makes the federal government's position risible.

“This study identifies a great economic opportunity and highlights the need for more progress on Open Skies agreements to remove barriers to international tourism and commerce,” said B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell.

“As a province and a country, we need to capitalize on services like those offered by Emirates Airline to realize our full economic potential,” he added.

Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach said increased Emirates service to Alberta would help the province “stay competitive.”

“During my recent visit to the United Arab Emirates, it was very apparent that Alberta needs to have direct international air access from key markets like the UAE in order to stay competitive in the global economy,” said Stelmach.

The study added that Air Canada would be a “major beneficiary” of new tourism and business traffic if the increased flights were approved and that “10 to 15 percent of Emirates passengers flying to Canada will interline with Air Canada to access other Canadian destinations,” said the study. Which makes sense; passengers will connect to other destinations.

“The study suggests that any potential impact on Air Canada‘s international traffic is low,” said Emirates. “Virtually all of the new traffic generated by increased Emirates service to Canada comes from markets that Air Canada does not fly.”

Air Canada is upset at the Emirates announcement.

“The study projects there will be an additional 278,927 people suddenly travelling to Dubai, which is a dubious assertion at best, given their own statistics show they cannot fill three flights a week at present,” said Air Canada spokesman Peter Fitzpatrick in an email to Examiner.com.

This is a bit silly; the flights are 85-90% full on average. That is a great load factor for any airline.

"This is part and parcel of Emirates' aggressive tactics to force Canada into a one-sided air services agreement. The UAE already enjoys access to Canada which far exceeds the traffic between both countries," Air Canada spokesman Peter Fitzpatrick said yesterday.

Of course! Emirates passengers do not fly to and from Dubai; they connect through Dubai. But Air Canada has full fifth freedom entitlement from Dubai if it wants to use it.

Transport Canada spokesman Patrick Charette said current capacity supplied by Emirates and Etihad exceed travel demand, so there isn't any seat shortage. What he misses here is the pent up demand. The fact that anyone flying to Vancouver or Calgary has to find other ways to get there.

"Officials continuously monitor the Canada-UAE market to ensure it is not underserved, as this would not be in the commercial interest of either country," Mr. Charette said. "The rights under the current Canada-UAE air transport agreement meet the market demands of travellers whose origin or final destination is either Canada or the UAE." As above; this misses the point. But clearly protects Air Canada.

Captain Paul Strachan, president of the Air Canada Pilots Association, said Emirates is playing down its true ambition of wooing customers in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver to travel to places other than Dubai. Emirates is trying to funnel foreign travellers connecting through its Dubai hub, which serves as the entry point into Canada, he said.

But Air Canada does not even fly to Dubai. It feeds passengers into its Star Alliance partners, mainly Lufthansa - which is currently dealing with a pilot strike - and says you can fly these people to Dubai or onto South Asia and Asia. So the Canadian government is protecting this alliance of international carriers.

"Quite frankly, Emirates wants to dump new seat capacity into established markets and poach traffic," Capt. Strachan said. He disputed Emirates' assertion that increased flights will provide economic stimulus to Canada and accused Emirates of taking aim at lucrative international traffic at Air Canada.

The new flights create jobs at the airports, in tourism and related services. The risk would all be with Emirates who would make a significant financial investment in the new services.

Emirates "has a tactic to break into markets and expand aggressively, but free trade in aviation has to be fair trade. In this instance, it's a lopsided proposal by Emirates," Capt. Strachan said. And lop sided protectionism from the Canadian government.

The people who lose out the most - the Canadian consumer. High fare and lack of choice; all to protect a national institution. And this from a c onservative government. Very odd.

White, elite Olympics

24 February 2010 - CTV

"Just a five-minute drive from Richmond's speed skating oval is the Golden Village, a rather Olympic-sounding collection of Asian supermarkets, malls and specialty stores.

In one of those malls, the densely packed, 150-store Parker Place, it's business as usual. No one is wearing the HBC Olympic merchandise or Team Canada hockey sweaters that have become the de rigueur uniform for hordes swarming the streets of downtown Vancouver. Televisions are showing Asian programming, not the Games. Further down the road at the glitzy Aberdeen Centre, a more upscale Hong Kong-style mall, there are no shoppers browsing team merchandise in The Speed Skating Canada Boutique.

In Richmond, which boasts the largest concentration of immigrants of any city in Canada, it's clear the Games haven't fully engaged the Asian community.

In fact, many in the Lower Mainland's Asian communities are feeling slighted by the Games so far and they blame Vancouver Olympic organizers for failing to both engage and accurately portray the true face of the city.

During the lavish opening ceremonies, for example, an event touted as a platform for Canada to show the world all that it is, there was no mention of the contributions of Canada's Chinese, Japanese or South Asian residents.

"It is like we are sending a family portrait to a long lost relative. On the surface, the portrait looks good. ... But there are some family members missing. And if I'm one of the missing members of the family, I'm going to jump up and down and say 'Hey, you forgot me,'" said Tung Chan, the chief executive officer of S.U.C.C.E.S.S, a well-established and influential Vancouver organization that provides services for new Canadians.

In Vancouver, visible minorities make up 42 per cent of residents, according to Statistics Canada; in Richmond, they comprise about 60 per cent of the population with those of Chinese descent accounting for at least 40 per cent.

Many Asian Canadians are volunteering, attending events and enthusiastically embracing the Winter Games. And Asian and South Asian performers have been featured in the Cultural Olympiad. But for the most part, participation at Olympic venues and events by Vancouver residents of Asian or South Asian descent hasn't reflected the size of their population.
Mayor Gregor Robertson is disappointed that the Olympics haven't done more to court the hugely diverse community, particularly in the opening ceremonies.

"Here in Vancouver the Asian communities are half of our population and have been integral to the city's growth and development since day one...so the show didn't reflect a lot of Vancouver itself," he said in an interview.
There are no Asians nor South Asians on VANOC's board of directors, an oversight that some say was reflected in the content of the opening ceremonies, whose artistic director, David Atkins, is Australian.

"In 2010 we shouldn't have to educate our business leaders on how to correctly portray diversity to the world," said Sukhi Sandhu, a real estate developer from the Vancouver suburb of Surrey, known for its large South Asian population.

To be sure, Canada's First Nations people were given a prominent role in the ceremonies, and the country's francophone heritage was also highlighted, although not enough for some. VANOC officials are promising more French content during the closing ceremonies and are also hinting the event will be more reflective of Canada's multicultural makeup.

Still, David Guscott, VANOC's executive vice-president of celebrations and partnerships, isn't apologetic for the lack of multicultural content in the opening ceremonies.

He said the organizing committee held extensive consultations two years ago with Canadians of all backgrounds who gave input into what they wanted to see in the opening ceremonies and highlighted at the Winter Games.

"They said immigration is a reality. But multiculturalism is truly the way we live now. So we didn't have a segment on multiculturalism. They said that's what we live,". They said multiculturalism needs to be reflected in the performance because it is a natural part of our being. They said we are well past the time when it is a thing in itself we do," Mr. Guscott explained.

It's a position that Canada's minister of immigration and multiculturalism Jason Kenney also takes. The Calgary MP, who has also been the federal Conservatives' point man in trying to win political support from ethnic voters, said some people are over-thinking the issue.

"I don't think there was any effort to deny our diversity. It is a central, positive and irreversible fact of our identify and our social reality."

Sometimes it is so obvious you don't need to make it even more obvious." It is just part of who we are. I think we need to be relaxed about our diversity and not force it.""

Dubai's 2nd airport to open - but no one is flying there

24 February 2010

Dubai’s second airport, Al Maktoum International, is on track for its June 27 opening, according to the Dubai Airports CEO.

Planned as the world’s largest airport (this is Dubai where it has to be biggest, tallest or largest) it will launch with freighter operations in four months time with passenger operations being introduced at a later date, Paul Griffiths said.

But as yet no international airline has committed to start operations from the airport.

“We are talking to a number of airlines. Several of them have expressed interest. We have put a proposition to them and we hope to be able to make some announcements shortly as to who the initial airline operators will be,” Griffiths said.

He told the paper he could not give an exact date when passenger operations would begin because they were instead working to a “state of readiness”.

“The freighter operation clearly will give us a good test of the operational facilities, the runway, the control tower and air traffic control. But we are not committing at this point in time to a definite date for passenger operations. But it will be at some stage in the future after the freighters have started [operations],” he told the paper.

Al Maktoum International is part of the $33bn Dubai World Central development in Jebel Ali.

Dubai's collapsed job market

24 February 2010

Dubai lost 17 percent of its professional workforce in 2009, with Western foreign nationals hit the hardest, according to recruitment agency GulfTalent.

"One of the biggest developments of 2009 has been a change in the fortunes of Dubai, from the fastest-growing hub in the region, sucking in much of the expatriate talent, to the city experiencing the region's most severe downturn," online recruiter GulfTalent said.

"Across the region, redundancies appear to have disproportionately hit senior executives and western nationals."

Despite Dubai's woes, the UAE remained the most attractive market in the region for expatriate professionals, with 74 percent of people surveyed by GulfTalent saying they wished to stay there.

As a whole, the country's professional workforce fell 16 percent, the survey showed. Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates and Bahraini capital Manama followed, shedding 14.4 percent and 12.8 percent of their workforces.

Salary growth also slowed in the region, with the average pay increase at 6.2 percent compared with 11.4 percent in 2008. GulfTalent saw little change in 2010, predicting growth of 6.3 percent.

In 2009, the UAE's average pay rise was 5.5 percent, down from 13.6 percent the previous year. In contrast, Oman saw an 8.4 percent rise, while Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia posted 7 percent increases.

The GulfTalent report was based on an online survey of 24,000 professional employees at the region's 3,000 largest corporations as well as a poll of 900 human resources managers and other interviews and reviews.
 

UAE asked to monitor Thaksin

23 February 2010

The Bangkok Post is reporting that the Foreign Ministry has asked the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to monitor the movements of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinwatra for three weeks to see if he is using Dubai as a base to threaten Thai stability, Deputy Foreign Minister Panich Vikitsreth said Monday.

Panich claimed Dubai was considering a request to temporarily detain Thaksin before extraditing him to serve his two-year jail term in Thailand for power abuse. I think this is unlikely; but it probably is the right thing to be saying to a Thai audience.

Panich considered it a good sign that the UAE court has asked the Office of the Attorney-General to translate all documents related to the case into Arabic. But in reality all of the documents should have been submitted in Arabic in the first place as all UAE court documents and hearings are in Arabic.

Mr Panich told reporters after meeting with UAE ambassador to Thailand Mohammed Ali Ahmed Omran Al Shamsi for 40 minutes that he had requested the envoy to ask his government in order to closely monitor Thaksin to see if he is causing a security threat against "key figures" in Thailand.

Mr Panich said his talk with the UAE ambassador also focussed on the embezzlement case involving Michael Bryan Smith, which could demonstrate the good cooperation existing between Thailand and UAE on extradition. As I have said before this is hardly comparable.

Thailand's Criminal Court last week ordered the extradition of Mr Smith, 45, a British national, to face trial in the UAE on fraud charges involving more than $150 million.

Mr Smith, a human resources manager of a Dubai-based company, was charged with falsifying documents and using false documents for unauthorised transfers of corporate funds to his own bank account in 2008. He then fled Dubai to Thailand.

Mr Panich said Thailand and UAE had held talks over an extradition treaty from Jan 9-13 but could not reach a conclusion. Thailand has proposed fresh talks and the UAE has agreed to meet again in May or June; long after the current Thaksin verdict has been passed.

Thousands apply to work as Emirates' cabin crew

21 February 2010 - From an Emirate Airline Press Release: The interesting note is that less than 1 out of every 10 applicants gets selected. Otherwise it is a puff piece and anyone seeking reality should do their own homework....

"he allure of life at 40,000 feet shows no sign of abating with Emirates Airline recently enjoying one of its highest turnouts for a cabin crew recruitment day in Europe.

Close to 400 candidates came forward in Madrid for the airline's latest recruitment push in Spain, while around 10,000 applications are received globally each month.

Emirates has visited Spain on many previous occasions and recruits throughout Europe and elsewhere around the globe on a regular basis. Nearly 11,000 cabin crew, spanning 128 nationalities, currently serve the airline. All are based in Dubai.

Kevin Griffiths, Senior Vice President, Cabin Crew, who attended the 30th January recruitment drive in Madrid, said:

"It was amazing. We have recruited in Spain before - Madrid, Barcelona, Seville and Malaga - but this was a tremendous turnout, and to be honest, I was quite taken aback when hundreds arrived, all wanting to join the Emirates' family."

Mr Griffiths added: "It is very clear that life in the sky and travelling the globe remains a powerful magnet for those wanting a true life experience, a job where no two days are the same, working on the frontline of a brand known for its service excellence."

While this is one of the highest turnouts for an Emirates' recruitment day in Europe, other impressive figures have been posted around the world. 1,200 people turned up for a recruitment session in Cairo in 2006, 1,000 converged in Fiji in 2008, and it's not uncommon for more than 1,000 hopefuls to arrive at recruitment days in Thailand.

Rick Helliwell, Vice President, Recruitment, said: "With the ongoing expansion of Emirates, our cabin crew recruitment team are conducting an average of 35 selection campaigns all around the globe every month, seeking people who have the confidence to explore the world and their own capabilities. They need to have a true desire to help others and a meticulous approach to service delivery."

Mr Helliwell continued: "Besides good English communication skills, whether it be Madrid, Sao Paulo, Beijing or Nairobi, wherever the selection teams go, we are looking for adaptable, confident and positive people who have the team orientation to work successfully alongside others in a truly international airline."

The cabin crew environment has come a long way since the 1920s and the "cabin boys" employed by Imperial Airways, whose flying boats once used Dubai Creek as a runway.

Nowadays, cabin crew on Emirates' flights are attending to passengers who may pass through the futuristic Terminal 3 in Dubai, watch up to 1,200 channels of in-flight entertainment and devour gourmet-chef-prepared food at 40,000 feet. Customers can even take a shower and enjoy a drink in a lounge if they travel on the upper deck of the airline's much-admired A380.

Of the close to 400 applicants who turned out in Spain, about 30 made it through to a final interview. If successful, the candidates undergo 7 weeks of intensive training in Dubai before being officially cleared to fly.

Spanish cabin crew member Regina Valcaneras, who was recruited following a 2005 open day in Barcelona, recalled: "When I got the call inviting me to Dubai for training, I felt the luckiest girl on earth! I've had so many fun and unforgettable experiences working for the airline. When I look back, I wouldn't change anything - they have been the best four years of my life. I adore the lifestyle."

Emirates employs 98 Spanish cabin crew and will launch its first passenger flights to Spain on 1st August, serving Madrid daily. The recruitment team will be in Barcelona on 27th March.

EK flight 141 will depart Dubai at 0725hrs and arrive in Madrid at 1320hrs. The return flight, EK 142, leaves Madrid at 1615hrs, getting into Dubai at 0105hrs the following day. The route will be served by an A330-200, offering 12 seats in First Class, 42 in Business and 183 in Economy."

Short memories

21 February 2010

The Nation (19 February 2010) has an interview with former army chief and 2006 coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who is now a member of the little-known Matumbhum Party.

It is a very soft interview; but I enjoyed this quote - "I won't say that a military coup is right or wrong, but I don't believe every coup has destroyed democracy. Sometimes, a coup can help start the process of restoring a democratic way of life."

When asked about the upcoming Supreme Court verdict on Thaksin Shinawatra’s assets case, this general states: “It is my duty to respect the court’s verdict, whatever it is. It’s the country’s highest court, and should be respected by every Thai. In fact, the judiciary system is a critical component of the checks-and-balances system in a democracy and there are always people who agree or disagree on certain issues in any democracy.”

These remember are the words of the army leader who in 2006 overthrew the twice elected government and dismantled the 1997 Constitution, the country’s basic law. He then wrote himself, and his friends, an amnesty for this act.

The court process was then used under the rules of the military junta to dissolve the Thai Rak Thai Party. As a check and a balance the judiciary is compromised.

This blog will not comment on the work of the Assets Scrutiny Committee (or the Asset Examination Committee)  other then stating that its objective was clear. .

Why did he lead the coup? he says "we didn’t have a democratic way of life because there was widespread political interference in our independent agencies. Also there was political interference in the mass media, as you may remember, so we didn’t have a free press…. Without the public’s support, no coup would be successful.”

Of course there is no political interference in today's Thai media. Now there was much about the Thaksin regime that was unpleasant; I am sure that he will be found guilty on Friday of making unusual wealth through his political office; he was not the first; he will not be the last.

Do they really want Thaksin back?

21 February 2010

I am not sure that the Thai authorities have really thought this through properly.

Why bring Thaksin back? Why not just leave him in the desert and yomping around Africa and those few other places that he can still go to spending his money on dubious business deals.

And simply stop talking about him in Thailand.

Yet the Foreign Ministry continues to seek his extradition from the UAE.

If he is brought back to Thailand and arrested any trial is likely to have a huge impact on national security and the political future of Thailand. Thaksin's supporters would besiege any court. It would be mayhem; and Thaksin would get to grandstand his views in a long and very political defense.

Yet the Foreign Ministry is holding a meeting tomorrow with the ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to discuss further cooperation on extradition matters.

Panich Vikitsreth, vice foreign minister, said yesterday that Thailand had demonstrated its goodwill in pursuing the issue with the UAE by agreeing to extradite Michael Brian Smith, a fugitive wanted by Dubai, to the UAE.

Exactly; we gave you your insignificant unknown business man. Now you give us our high profile ex democratically elected Prime Minister that we through out in coup. It is not exactly a fair swap!

In response the Nation reports that Dubai has asked Thai authorities to submit a new Arabic copy (surely they had the good sense to submit this in Arabic originally!) of Bangkok's request for the extradition of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra so its officials can consider it further.

Bangkok "expects" (interesting word as I am not convinced that the UAE will take kindly to being effectively blackmailed over this) the UAE to reciprocate and finalise a bilateral extradition treaty so that Thaksin, who maintains a home in Dubai, could be sent back to Bangkok, said Panich.

Cat and Mouse in Thailand

21 February 2010

Nirmal Ghosh for The Straits Times

"The Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) was packed on Feb 18, for a talk by government spokesman Dr Panitan Wattanayagorn, and a panel discussion featuring former Cabinet minister and now highly regarded political commentator Suranand Vejjajiva, and Federico Ferrara, a professor at the National University of Singapore, blogger, and author of the trenchant new book Thailand Unhinged.

The size of the audience reflected the level of concern over the political tension surrounding the court decision due on Feb 26, on whether the state is justified in seizing around US$2 billion worth of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s assets.

The police backed by the army has thrown a protective ring around Bangkok. There is much saber-rattling in the ranks of the red shirts of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) – though the leadership has stressed that its demonstrations will not be violent.

But key government figures have done their part to ratchet up fear of the Red Shirts.

"It seems like there are people on both sides who are intent on precipitating this to some extent; each has its own calculations. The government’s posture in this regard is not encouraging at all", Professor Ferrara said at the FCCT.

"The scaremongering and the demonization of the opposition that you hear every day in the papers; the mysterious grenade attacks; it seems like from the old playbook."

"This is stuff that’s been happening here for 35 years. You rile up the population that are kind of neutral, you scare them to such an extent that when something does happen, when the regime really does crack down, when perhaps the army does take over, they are seen as the ones who are restoring order and protecting the unity of the nation, not the ones who are undermining the order and the unity of the nation as they have for the last 35 years."

It is a cat and mouse game, with bluff and counter-bluff, and nobody quite knows how the chips will fall.

Against the nervousness in political circles, is the paradoxical picture of a capital city that despite travel advisories from a string of western governments, seems perfectly normal, with tourists still arriving and hotels heavily booked.

I moderated the evening's discussions, which were lively and occasionally feisty. Later I mined my recordings for some excerpts which have not found their way into my reports in the print edition of The Straits Times.

Dr Panitan, clearly constrained by his role as government spokesman, had been told, he said, to say as little as possible. But he said quite a lot, and gamely fielded all questions, occasionally raising a laugh, and occasionally hitting a grimly emotional note that silenced the audience.

"The political situation in Thailand is in a very fundamental and interesting transitional period," he said.

"It has been like that for several years. 26th February or not, decision day or not, (Thailand) will continue to transform in politics, economics, in social and other issues for many years to come."

"We have to be prepared to handle such a.. life changing era for Thailand. We have to be ready for whatever comes, and I believe in the great resilience of the Thais. This is not the first time we have been through a very interesting period.. every time the Thais manage to come up with a new society stronger than ever."

He said Thailand’s "friends" should not lose faith. "I don’t know if it will be to your liking, but we will emerge, in our Thai way," he said.

"I don’t even know if we can settle our differences. It may be years or even decades before we can settle our differences. Indeed differences are very normal in a democratic society, we just have to handle it in a peaceful way, an orderly way."

"We acknowledge that differences will continue. Peace and order is our aim. We are not going to look for ways to solve political differences in the next few weeks. We are going to ask for peace and stability."

And citing the street violence of recent years as well as violence in the south, he admitted that Thailand was currently not a "normal" society.

"I think we are at war, a different type of war," he said."

The World is run by those who show up

21 February 2010 - The Gulf News

This is an interesting opinion piece from Mishaal Al Gergawi in the Gulf News. It is a step in the right direction and a hint that maybe there is some soul searching going on among the administrators and government officials in Dubai. I still think that the Dubai World debt handling was the ultimate moment of credibility suicide. There is much alike between Tiger Woods and Dubai. Both had never apologised for anything until Tiger's scripted mea culpa on Friday. It was not perfect but it was a start. Will Dubai follow?

"In the Q&A session of Jim Crane's talk titled ‘Perceptions of Dubai in the western media' at the Dubai School of Government (DSG), many Dubai affiliated attendees questioned the genuineness and aim of the coverage of the western media. Words such as ‘cultural imperialism' and ‘celebrity journalism' were associated with the Anglo Saxon coverage of Dubai.

Some good but not new points were made on the value of analysis made by 48-hour Dubai-transiting journalists from London and New York.

What is worth noting here is that many journalists covered Dubai in exactly that way during the boom years as well; no Dubai affiliate ever criticised the approach then.

Following comments by attendees from the media that it is hard for them to get a statement from Dubai, someone said that the recently established Dubai Government Media Office, a streamlined combination of Brand Dubai, Falcon and associates and the Dubai Press Club, would be operational by March 1.

I resisted commenting on that statement then but I will do so now.

March 2010 is exactly 18 months from Ramadan 2008, the month when the real estate market began to severely decline. I find it incredibly inefficient and alarming that there still is no sense of understanding of the gravity of the situation that Dubai faces by all that is Dubai Inc.

It is not a crisis of property valuation (that's a global problem!) but rather a crisis of value addition which the property's revaluation has uncovered.

We, in Dubai, have actively and very consciously put ourselves out there. There where? The world. We went to the travel markets, the property fair and the expos. We spent much time and money telling the world our story.

How we were possibly the first city in both the Arab and Muslim world in hundreds of years that was making great strides towards the transformation to not only an international hub of trade and tourism but one for education and health care too; we developed the ‘Knowledge Village' and the ‘Healthcare City' which have received mixed views so far when comparing their visions to their methods of execution.

We spoke of the importance of civil debate and the civic development of the modern Arab public office and formed the DSG which up to date has pushed the ceiling of tolerated public debate beyond what has been previously possible; we continue to expect more of the DSG because we believe in its capacity for so much more.

We spoke of the importance of elevating poverty and successfully executed Dubai Cares; we continue to be proud of it. For many Dubai personified Veni Vidi Vici; for many Dubai said: ‘I came, I saw, I conquered'. And so the combination of an arrival of global hard times to a city that pretty much marketed itself as all of the above and its year and half long silence would naturally spark reactions ranging from mockery to fury.

As one prominent Emirati businessman told senior government officials in private council: "There was paralysis from the government". The statement was made back in March 2009 (six months into the crisis), when there appeared to besome sort of realisation that Dubai needed to develop a communication strategy and ‘Brand Dubai' was launched three months later.

Nothing material came out of it beyond an attempt to mobilise local media and counter the points. Direct communication with western media never occurred; it still does not.

The world is run by those who show up: what we need is an office of communication and information. An office of communication provides feedback, validation and refutation of statements made in relation to Dubai.

An office of information, on the other hand, provides much needed data which so far has been a victim of speculation, on the western media's end, and conflicting statements, on varying government officials' end . Availability of information is just as important because it sets the record straight on various questions such as debt levels, inflation adjusted growth numbers, population and demographics and business activity.

Whether it is called Brand Dubai, Dubai Media Office or the International Communications Office (I made up that last one) it is absolutely imperative that this office takes charge of the conversation and it must do the following:

Set the record straight: so much of this ‘Dubai Bashing' is due to our continued silence.

Acknowledge previous errors of judgment: There is much goodwill for Dubai and we are losing it by our silent arrogance. Contrary to a worryingly growing xenophobic view of some, the world continues to have a vested interested in Dubai's success. It just needs to know that we understand where things went wrong.
Communicate Dubai's future economic model: Beyond vague references to the superior state of infrastructure and the renewed importance of tourism, no government official has shed light on what a post property driven Dubai will look like.

Consistent message with a face: Dubai needs to clearly say where it stands on a number of issues and it must appoint a spokesperson that articulates these views and contexualises their consistency with reference to good and bad coverage of Dubai.

Liberate the local media: One of the main reasons why the foreign bashing is prevalent is because our local media is so overly censored, which in turn makes Dubai a sitting duck for foreign media's onslaught. There is much to be said for the benefits that Dubai and its government would reap from a free and critical local media, enough to fill a whole article probably.

We are no longer a back water trading port. With the up comes the down and it is how we glide the down, not how we taxi the up that defines our propensity for metropolitan prominence. We have been to the trade fairs of Frankfurt, Cannes and Shanghai. More than ever, It is now time for us to match up to our image and bite the bullet, not the dust."

Mishaal Al Gergawi is an Emirati commentator on socio-economic and cultural affairs in the UAE.

Dubai Metro's continuing delays

21 February 2010

The Dubai Metro Red line will not be fully open by the end of February. We all knew that. So why wait until a week before the end of the month to say that some of the stations will now open by the end of April. And that the green line is now a year behind its original schedule.

H.E. Mattar Al Tayer, Chairman of the Board and Executive Director of Roads & Transport Authority (RTA), announced that all the remaining works in the stations on the Red Line (18 stations) will be complete by 25 April 2010, and that all works in the stations on the Green Line will be completed in August 2011.

But although the station works will be complete the surrounding infrastructure work is not.

So Red Line stations will be opend in phases starting from April 25th, 2010; seven stations will open that day; namely Emirates Station, Airport Terminal 1 Station, GGICO Station, Al Karama Station, World Trade Center Station, Marina Station, and Ibn Battuta Station. The remaining stations will be operated over the following months of 2010” added Al Tayer.

It is unclear whether the limit of six trains pre hour will continue from the end of April.

So by the end of April 18 of the total of 29 stations will be operational. The RTA failed to give any time frame for the opening of the remaining 11 stations on the Red Line.

Now we know who runs the country

21 February 2010

There is a very telling picture on the front cover of The Nation newspaper last Friday.

There has been plenty written about the useless GT200 substance detection device and Prime Minister Abhisit was clear that the device is a fraudulent device with no scientific basis and that his “government” recommends the device no longer be purchased.

Mr Abhisit went further and said dogs have been shown to be more efficient than the bomb detector.

But then 24 hours later last Thursday the army chief, Gen Anupong, (who signed the purchase order) gathered all his top generals for his own press conference in Bangkok and announced that in direct contradiction to the Prime Minister (and a plethora of scientific evidence to the contrary), the GT200 device in fact “works” and that the Thai Army would continue to use hundreds of these devices.

The Army chief gathered his men from all Army regions, explosive-ordnance disposal units and procurement departments to present their views on the efficiency of the GT200 bomb detectors to a live televised press conference yesterday after scientific tests proved them to be useless.

The message was clear : General Anupong does not feel any obligation whatsoever to follow the orders of Prime Minister Abhisit. Sadly is also showed that Anupong can ignore all the scientific evidence showing that the GT200 device is a complete fraud.

Better still the army insisted that 7,000 lives had been saved by these expensive appliances in the violence-plagued deep South.

You can go to the GT200 company website to learn more about this equipment. Here is their explanation:

"The simple way to explain this technology is to take an inflated balloon and rub it on your hair. A static charge is being created making that balloon “attract” it to say, a wall. Provided that there is enough charge on that balloon, it will remain “attracted” to the wall for an indefinite amount of time. However, once the “charge” has dissipated, the balloon will then “unattached” between itself and fall to the ground."

Bizarre....

The Thai tax payer has paid some 800 million baht for these machines (at Baht 1.4 million each). Some must have become rich from this scam. High commissions are not unusual in military purchases.

But how many people have also have been killed, injured, disabled, or arrested because of its inaccuracies.

The army ordered troops in the restive South to continue using the bogus device, even though tests conducted by the Science and Technology Ministry have proven beyond any doubt that the device is ineffective.

"I understand the scientific tests, but what the Army is trying to say is the device operators on the ground can use them effectively. This may not be explained scientifically, but I'm telling the truth," Anupong said.

At the army press briefing bomb squad officials from Yala and Narathiwat told their respective success stories using the bomb detector during the press conference to back up their boss.

The Army has 775 sets of GT200, which were bought from time to time since the government of General Surayut Chulanont. A big lot of GT200 was purchased under the current government last year the press were told.

The procurement was conducted legally with an average price of Bt900,000, he said. The price was relatively more than what was paid by other agencies as the Army had bought the device with full options that enabled it to detect 18 different substances.

Not surprisingly questions are being raised about why the British government did not intervene to stop the export of useless "bomb detectors" such as the British-made ADE651 and GT200 earlier, before they were exported to Iraq, Thailand, Pakistan, China, Mexico, Kenya, Lebanon and many other countries

Following a BBC Newsnight investigation into the "magic wand detectors", which was broadcast on 22 January 2010, which showed that they had no functioning parts, Britain banned their export to Iraq and Afghanistan because they might endanger British or allied forces.

They then issued a warning to governments around the world that they did not work. This led to the Thai Prime Minister baning the purchase of any more GT200s.

But in reality Abhisit is powerless when confronted by the Army, because the Army owns him. He is PM because they put him there and tolerate him.

But Abhisit is smarter than many Thai politicians, although maybe less cunning. He cannot lose face by supporting the theory that these things work. So he has to make a compromise : to say in public that the GT200 are useless and that the government won’t buy new inventory, but to let the military use them if they want to.

Anupong knows this… and It seems that he takes some pleasure (and a significant show of army brass) to remind Abhisit of the rules of the game
 

Not out of the Woods

19 February 2010

So Tiger Woods will have a five minute orchestrated press meeting today - to say sorry and announce his return. Yawn. Yawn. The trouble is golf needs him back. When the world's number one player is the anonymous Steve Stricker and when people are giving up watching golf it is clear that for Tiger there is no such thing as bad publicity.

He can do as he likes. And he likes a stage managed press conference.

And to show that he is bigger than the game he has timed the announcement for the Friday of the Accenture World Matchplay. He had been dropped by Accenture as his major sponsor when evidence of his busy private life came to light last November. What better revenge than to schedule his re-emergence from self-imposed exile as their tournament reached its business end. He takes all available attention away from the tournament and the players and on to him?

You have to be good to be that arrogant!

But golf cannot wait to have him back. There will be some sort of I am sorry; he will ask for him and his family to be left alone to heal themselves in peace.

And people will quickly forget that Woods has been responsible for one of the biggest commercial con tricks carried out in the business of sport.

For years he and his advisers sold him as the exemplar of integrity, the epitome of decency and honesty. The reality was rather different. But far from ostracising Woods in the manner of Accenture, the US PGA want to be seen at his side; and bizarrely the venue for his public demonstration of contrition is the PGA's national headquarters in Ponte Verde Beach.

Woods will simply read a prepared statement to six selected reporters in front of one camera. We would all vulture like prefer to see him face the press full on but he does not need to. 

The timing is transparent; “he’s got to come out at some point,” Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy said at the Accenture yesterday. “I suppose he might want to get something back against the sponsor that dropped him.” Rant all they like the players know that without Woods, the PGA Tour is in some financial trouble.

“It’s selfish,” Els said of the timing of Woods’ public statement. “You can write that. I feel sorry for the sponsor. Mondays are a good day to make statements, not Fridays.”

How will the crowds react on his return. The US crowds will love him. They all want to be him. Talent, money and pornstars to bed. The European crowds will be far less kind.

And don't think this is an end to the revelations. There will be more. And there will be books. And there will be pictures. Inevitable. Tiger is a money making machine for everyone around him.

The ongoing pursuit of Thaksin

18 February 2010

A Thai court has now agreed to send a Briton to face embezzlement charges in Dubai, the emirate that is currently home to fugitive Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. However there is no extradition treaty between the UAE and Thailand.

Prosecutors in the United Arab Emirates issued an arrest warrant in 2008 for Michael Bryan Smith, 43, on charges of siphoning about $150 million from Limitless LLC, the real-estate unit of Dubai World. Thailand, which arrested him last May, will extradite him in 30 days, the Bangkok Criminal Court said in a statement earlier today.

“Even though Thailand and the UAE don’t have an extradition treaty, the UAE has expressed its intention to cooperate on the extradition of criminals in the future,” the court said.

Clearly the message is that we will give you Michael Smith and you should arrest and send us Thaksin.

Thailand has been negotiating an extradition treaty with the UAE.

On Friday 26th February a Thai court is scheduled to rule whether to seize about $2 billion of Thaksin’s assets.

The decision to return the Briton to Dubai is clearly aimed to help accelerate negotiations on an extradition treaty between the UAE and Thailand, Thani Thongphakdi, a Thai foreign ministry spokesman, told Bloomberg. Thailand wants it completed “as soon as possible,” he said.

The case “reflects that there is a need for a bilateral extradition treaty,” Thani said.

Murder in Dubai

17 February 2010

On 19 January up to seventeen assassins carried out the ruthlessly efficient execution of the Hamas military Commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in his Dubai hotel, the al-Bustan Rotana, bedroom.

The alleged hit team, travelling on forged British, Irish, German and French passports, spent no more than 19 hours in the Gulf state, killing Mr Mabhouh just five hours after he had flown in from Syria.

After trawling through dozens of hours of CCTV footage, investigators have been able to piece together a minute-by-minute reconstruction of how the hit unfolded.

The murder was at approximately 8.30pm. Within two hours the assassins were at Dubai airport to catch a flight to Paris, followed over the next 12 hours by the rest of the team, who flew to such scattered destinations as Frankfurt, Hong Kong and South Africa.

By the time Mr Mabhouh’s body was found at 1.30pm on Jan 20, when he failed to check out of his room, his killers were thousands of miles away.

So who did it; what happened; why was it done, when was it done and where? Sky's Tim Marshall gave this summary on the Sky web site:

Who?

Given that it was obvious the passport trail would lead to Israel there are three theories. Firstly that an intelligence agency or more likely a crime syndicate carried out the attack but tried to put the blame on Mossad. Alternatively Mossad has blundered and drawn attention to itself. A third theory is that Mossad wanted to be in the frame for the hit in order to maintain its reputation as the most feared spy agency whilst at the same time having 'plausible deniability'.

What?

An assassination straight of out a spy film employing classic, if somewhat outdated methods. The false passports and disguises may ensure the team is never identified. The manner of killing, suffocation, appears to have left little DNA evidence. The numbers involved appear large (it could be up to 17 people) but it can take three teams to follow one person 24/7.

Why?

Mahmoud al Mabhouh had many enemies so there are many motives. The Israelis have been after him for years after his involvement in the killing of two Israeli soldiers. He may also have been involved with the Iranians in his role as an arms dealer - this would bring him to the attention of numerous intelligence agencies including the Mossad, the CIA and most of the Arab world. As a member of Hamas he was considered an enemy by some factions within the PLO.

When?

Al Mabhouh was murdered on January 19th 2010. Within 24 hours all the 11 named suspects had left the country, long before the cause of death was even established.

Where?

He was killed in his room in the Al Bustan Rotana Hotel in Dubai. The city is best known as a winter sunshine playground, but it also has a reputation as a meeting point for arms dealers, intelligence officers and crime syndicates.
 

Peer - less tennis

17 February 2010

A year after being banned from playing tennis in Dubai Sharar Peer is back. Dubai was fined last year and would have lost its WTA sanctioned tournament with another ban. So Ms Peer is playing this year.

It an effort to minimise publicity around her participation the organisers moved her first games in the tournament onto outside courts with few spactators.

But  Ms Peer has increased the security dilemma surrounding her presence in the United Arab Emirates by producing a stunning 6-2, 7-5 win over the top-seeded Caroline Wozniacki to reach the quarter-finals of the Dubai Open.

The former Israeli soldier is the first woman athlete from her country to compete in the UAE and all three of her matches have been scheduled in the easier-to-protect outside courts.

But after victories over Yanina Wickmayer, the 13th seed, Virginie Razzano, last year's runner-up, and now Wozniacki, the world number three from Denmark, the pressure to take the risk of scheduling her on the centre court has increased.

With Hamas having alleged that a founder member of its organisation was assassinated last month, and fears of tit-for-tat reprisals, Peer has been operating with guards everywhere, separate changing facilities, cameras filming everyone coming in and out of the arena, and secret interviews at hidden locations

"It was different, for sure. I mean from the centre court where the court was a little bit slower on the centre court to playing a little bit faster courts on court one, but I understand the security issues," Wozniacki said of her distant, little-watched defeat.

"I prefer to be secure and sure that nothing will happen out on court one than playing on centre court, and not being able to know what's going to happen next, so that's fine," she added.

It remains to be seen whether Peer's next encounter creates a similar point of view.

Passport to the truth in Dubai remains secret

17 February 2010 - The Independent

"It's a propaganda war. Whoever killed the Hamas official in Dubai – let's speak frankly – it's part of an old, dirty war between the Israelis and the Palestinians in which they have been murdering their secret police antagonists for decades. Whose were the passports? Or should we say "passports". So here's a moment to reflect on realities.

Many Dubaians believe that the collapse of the emirate's economy last year was the revenge of Western banks – spurred on, of course, by the Americans – to punish them for allowing Iranian shell companies to use Dubai as a sanctions-busting base during the cold-hot war between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran. Now the Americans (or the Israelis – you can take your pick) want to turn Dubai into the Beirut of the Gulf. That was actually a headline last week – in The Jerusalem Post, of course – which painted Dubai as dangerous as it was economically calamitous.

But hold on a minute. According to a Dubai "source" of The Independent – readers will have to judge what this means – the security forces of the aforesaid emirate informed a "British diplomat" in Dubai (presumably the consul, since the embassy is in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi) of the UK passport details almost six days ago and "did not receive an appropriate reply". If this is true – the Foreign Office will be wrathful in its denials – then why didn't the British immediately express their outrage at the use of forged British passports and cough up details of the equally outrageous frauds a week ago? This misuse puts every British citizen at risk.

Yet the Foreign Office – so keen to warn British citizens of the dangers they face in the Middle East – sat on their large behind and did bugger all. I'm sorry. If they had the details, they had a duty to UK citizens to speak up. If they hadn't got the details, they should have told us. But they were silent. Why? Was there a cold breeze coming beneath a closed door?

Far too many police forces are now sending their minions to Israel to learn about "terror". The Canadians actually dispatched a team of cops to Tel Aviv who allowed themselves to wear "suicide vests" for publicity pictures. Air France now hands the US details of all its passengers' profiles – which, of course, go straight to the Israelis – despite the fact that Israeli security officers (like hundreds of Arab security officers in the Middle East) may well be involved in war crimes.

Now a small addendum. The Dubai authorities apparently gave the British the (allegedly) forged Irish passports under the misapprehension that Dublin was still a major city of the United Kingdom. Things, needless to say, changed in Dublin almost a hundred years ago – although how many readers can name the date of Dubai's independence from British rule? – but this elementary mistake suggests that the Dubai version of events (the inexplicable failure of the British to explain their silence) may contain a distressing truth. Don't we (the British? Gordon Brown? etc, etc) care when killers use supposedly British passports?

It is too soon to give a reply. But I should add that the Dubai authorities have other information which they have not yet revealed. The world awaits."

Blue Rodeo's homecoming show

15 February 2010 - Toronto Sun

"There's life in the old band yet.

And I say that with the utmost respect.

Alt-country-rock-pop veterans Blue Rodeo played with real fire and passion on Tuesday night at Massey Hall as the Toronto group - who formed 25 years ago and are still going strong - launched a three-night stand at the hallowed venue.

Currently touring Canada in support of last fall's intriguing double album, The Things We Left Behind, accomplished singer-songwriting-guitarists Jim Cuddy and Greg Keelor led the charge backed by bassist Bazil Donovan, drummer Glenn Milchem, multi-instrumentalist Bob Egan and new keyboardist Michael Boguski, the latter who was given a wide berth to play extended solos and rarely disappointed.

That core of six were often joined by Cuff The Duke's Wayne Petti on acoustic guitar and backing vocals, fiddler Anne Lindsay, cellist Julian Armour and Julie Fader on backup vocals and flute.

It was a formidable group, especially when they all came together in a united front as they did on the evening's standout song, a rambling, jammy and elaborate version of 5 Days In May that featured stellar animated solos by Boguski and Lindsay in particular.

That older song was the two-hour-and-10-minute concert's defining moment - exciting, exhilarating, almost transcendent - but there were plenty of other notable tunes too.

Plenty of new tracks from the strings-and-piano-driven The Things We Left Behind were among the show's highlights like the opening upbeat duo of Never Look Back and One More Night, the pretty Don't Let The Darkness In Your Head, One Light Left In Heaven - which Cuddy dedicated to recently deceased Canadian author and musician Paul Quarrington ("No one lived the last year of their life more fully," he said), And When You Wake Up, and Gossip, and the mid-tempo Million Miles and Arizona Dust.

Of Blue Rodeo's extensive back catalogue, the joyous Head Over Heels, It Could Happen To You, Rose-Coloured Glasses, and What Am I Doing Here, were standouts.

And then Cuddy and Keelor pulled out all the crowd-pleasing stops in the show's final stretch.

They stood side-by-side at the front of the stage, singing almost a capella, save for a few strums on Keelor's guitar, the opening verses of Heart Of Mine, while the audience hooted and hollered, before launching into the plugged-in version, which finally drew dozens of dancing girls to the front of the stage at the show's 90 minute mark.

"You don't have to be a girl to dance," joked Cuddy, afterwards.

Still, the women remained glued to their spots and Cuddy worked them like an expert showman and the band's resident sex symbol during the next song, Trust Yourself, which featured him doing a slinky guitar solo along the front of the stage.

Keelor upped the ante on the next song, Hasn't Hit Me Yet, as he encouraged the audience to help out, and everyone obediently stood and sang the song's first couple of verses before he and the rest of the band eventually joined in.

And then there was the set-ending Diamond Mine, simply a classic that has stood the test of time.

By the time the trio of encore songs - Til I Am Myself, Try and Lost Together featuring opening act Dustin Bentall and his band - were rolled out, the crowd was positively giddy.

There is a definite sense of community at a Blue Rodeo show and everyone just seems happy to be a part of it.

RATING: 4 out of 5

SET LIST:

Never Look Back
One More Night
Rain Down On Me
Don't Let The Darkness In Your Head
Head Over Heels
It Could Happen To You
One Light Left In Heaven
Rose-Coloured Glasses
All The Things That Are Left Behind
5 Days In May
Million Miles
What Am I Doing Here
And When You Wake Up
Gossip
Arizona Dust
Heart Like Mine
Trust Yourself
Hasn't Hit Me Yet
Diamond Mine

Encore:
Til I Am Myself Again
Try
Lost Together

Mandelson's Dubai warning

15 February 2010

In a visit to the Gulf emirate, the Business Secretary urged its leaders, and the managers of stricken group Dubai World, to come up with details of how investors in its troubled units will be treated, or face further investment exodus. However, the company – effectively a state offshoot – has not yet provided any details on an offer, according to a spokesman, adding that it wanted to give creditors time to digest Dubai World's business plan.

Lord Mandelson, in Dubai to discuss the multi-billion pound exposure of British banks to the state, said: "Time is running out. The current uncertainty and the lack of agreement cannot go on indefinitely.

"Dubai has to be conscious of the fact that how it resolves its current problems will mean a great deal for the Dubai brand, its reputation and how it secures investment from overseas in the future."

The warning came as the Dubai Financial Market suffered its biggest fall in three weeks following reports that Dubai World, which has suspended interest payments on $22bn (£14bn) of debt until May, will offer creditors only 60 cents in the dollar after seven years. The cost of insuring against a Dubai default rose on Friday to the highest level since November, as investors once again turned their attention to the state's problems.

Lord Mandelson said: "The current uncertainty on a lack of agreement cannot go on indefinitely, even for much longer.

"Therefore, [Dubai] has to tread carefully, it has to tread openly, it mustn't tread for too long and it does need to reach an agreement with its creditors that everyone can say is demonstrably fair to those who have invested their money, undertaken jobs, done well for Dubai and require Dubai to act fairly to them."

Two thirds back - and wait seven years

14 February 2010

Dubai World may offer creditors 60 cents on the US dollar guaranteed by the emirate's government as part of a deal to reschedule $22bn of debt, according to newswire Zawya Dow Jones.

Under the terms of the deal, banks including HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland, Standard Chartered and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, will receive 60% of the money they're owed by the troubled conglomerate after seven years, the newswire said, citing two sources close to the deal.

The offer, which pays no interest, will come with a sovereign guarantee, the newswire said. An alternative offer involves creditors receiving full payment, including 40% of their Dubai World debt in the form of assets in Nakheel, the company's property unit, with no government guarantee over the same seven-year period.

Dubai is attempting to restructure debts estimated to exceed $80bn that helped it build infrastructure and rise to become a global city during the boom of the last decade. In November, Dubai World shocked international investors when it asked for a six-month standstill agreement to enable it to restructure $26bn of debt.

The two offers have yet to be submitted formally to creditors, but they received short shrift from bankers in Dubai who said that the proposals emphasised the gulf remaining between the two sides after almost two months of negotiations.

The banks have become increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress in the talks. A proposal to secure a six-month standstill on Dubai World’s debt repayments, pending a restructuring of the business, had been expected by the end of last month.

Dubai World’s biggest lenders — including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds — have signalled their willingness to agree a long-term restructuring of the debt. However, they remain committed to getting most, if not all, of their money back through extending the maturities of loans and the sale of state-owned assets.

I told you so - I said 60 cents in the dollar if people are lucky - I did not expect a full seven year wait.

More here from the Wall Street Journal

Should tourists avoid Thailand as threat of violence grows?

13 February 2010

Some things can become a self fulfilling prophesy. It really does seem as though the Thai government wants a confrontation. They talk it up not play it down. The government takes more action to provoke a reaction than it does to try and call for calm.

Now the Bangkok Post is advising that diplomats and foreign businesses have been warned about possible outbreaks of violence due to the upcoming court verdict in the Shinawatra assets seizure case.

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya and Maj Gen Thitiwat Kamlang-ek, military coordinating officer to the Foreign Ministry, briefed foreign diplomats recently on the government's preparations for the demonstrations ahead of the court verdict in the assets seizure case scheduled for February 26th.

In his talks with diplomats, Mr Kasit said the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship "plans to intensify its agitation and step up protests in Bangkok and around the country in order to disrupt the work of the government and the judiciary to create the impression that the government is no longer in control", he was quoted as saying to the Bangkok Post by a diplomatic source.

There is still no evidence presented to support this alarm.

The red shirts end game, according to Mr Kasit, was to show the government was illegitimate and force it to call a general election, the source said.

Mr Kasit said forces deployed at the rallies would be equipped with riot gear only and would not carry firearms. If necessary, the Internal Security Act would be invoked. A state of emergency would only be declared in extreme cases.

Maj Gen Thitiwat told diplomats that 780 hard-core red shirts were being monitored. How are they doing this. Why is it 780, not 720 or 830. Who are these people. How much resource is required to monitor these people. Are phones tapped? Are movements followed?

In addition Thitiwat said that 58 companies of security forces, about 5,000 officers, were on standby and blockades would be set up to prevent demonstrators from reaching the capital.

Acting government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn is still insisting that huge amounts of money had been transferred to some red shirt leaders from the Middle East. No evidence has yet been presented to support this.

Meanwhile, about 5,000 police and military officers will conduct a joint rally control drill next week to prepare for the UDD protests, said Pol Maj Gen Piya Utayo spokesman for the Metropolitan Police Bureau.

He said police are planning to set up 200 checkpoints across Bangkok and neighbouring provinces to strengthen efforts to keep order. Military officers and city inspectors, or Thesakij, will help police check rally-goers for weapons.

Now this all begs the obvious question - if the government expects (and even encourages violence) and with blockades set up all around Bangkok should tourists be advised to avoid the country over the next two weeks.

Based upon the government rhetoric the answer must be to advise visitors to stay away. And that this is what any responsible government would be doing?

The media as chief agitator

12 February 2010

With two weeks to go before the Thaksin supreme court verdict is is truly sad to see the Engliash language media taking on the role of chief agitator in Bangkok.

The Nation carries new allegations each day of red shirt threats or of the build up of funds to support red shirt agitation. The question is whether this is part of a larger campaign that then supports a harsh crackdown on the red shirt movement,

Today's allegations are laughable; because they contain no supporting evidence at all:

The Nation reported that "authorities are investigating three schemes to channel funds to the red shirts according to Democrat Party spokesman Buranaj Smutharaks.

In the first scheme, a number of couriers were contracted to smuggle cash from border areas into the country. The suspicious funds came from casinos located along the borders.

In the second scheme, a group of import-export companies were suspected to have doctored their records to help moving funds into the country.

In the third scheme, funds were moved via the international wire transferring system to local accounts of individuals or companies but the records were fixed to elude detection. There are some five businessmen involved.

It is as if the media wants something to happen; wants a fight; wants the army to move in and once and for all remove the red shirt threat. And if that is the case the media is speaking on behalf of some powerful voices.

Even better was this from Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban who said yesterday that he could not confirm or deny the allegation that a businessman known by the initial S was the recipient of suspicious funds channeling from abroad to the violence-prone red shirts.

Suthep said he would have to wait for checks by authorities concerned before commenting on the issue.

"But I can say this - the government has no reason to fabricate the story against the red shirts," he said. There is a pants on fire moment !!

Now of course the red shirt media is probably just as guilty of similar allegations. But they don't get access to the wider international audience.

And as a final note for now, even Chinese New Year festivities are in the political cauldron. The Bangkok Post (10 February 2010) reports a “campaign to urge people in Yaowarat to wear pink clothes to celebrate Chinese New Year…”. The Post states: “Red is the auspicious colour traditionally worn to usher in Chinese New Year."

But the red shirts are the perceived enemy.

Thailand under military rule

12 February 2010

The Nation newspaper is reporting that the Thai government has started deploying several thousands of security forces in 38 provinces across the country - as many as 54 companies of them in Bangkok alone - ahead of the verdict in the assets seizure case against fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra on February 26.

A government spokesman Panitan Watanayagorn said that almost 200 checkpoints would be set up in Bangkok and the surrounding provinces, particularly at "the points of entry and exit" and important state agencies, as well as the transport networks.

He said the monitoring was in the "normal level" at present but that it the degree of intensity would be gradually increased after Feb 15.

No one seems concerned? This is a serious removal of the right of people to move freely around the country. This is a democratic government deploying security forces on a massive scale for something that has not happened. But bizarrely the action is probably widely supported in Bangkok where no one wants a repeat of the Songkran riots from last year.

Among the Democrats and in the media there appears to be a view that the red shirts are like a house of cards and that if you take away Thaksin's money they will disappear. But all the evidence from reporters who do go to Thailand's north is that the red shirts have created a movement which is self-funding.

Take away Thaksin's money and the red shirts will not just go away. Thaksin has been able to tap into long-held resentments. These have not been addressed. All the attention is on 26 February and the government will probably declare victory if nothing happens that day. But it would be a false dawn. The red shirts are in this for a long fight.

There are red shirt community radio stations, red shirt magazines and papers etc. The red shirts are building, but building for what?

Vancouver's poet laureate:
Why I have declined to participate in the Olympic Celebrations

As the 2010 Winter Olympics open today in rainy Spring-like Vancouver not everyone in the city is happy with the Organizing Committee

12 February 2010 By Brad Cran

"In the early 1950s when George Woodcock moved to Vancouver there were few fellow writers and virtually no publishers in the city. By 1994, the year in which Woodcock was awarded the Freedom of the City (Vancouver’s highest civic honour) our writing community had matured and our growing number of publishing houses rivalled the older literary presses in Eastern Canada. Woodcock was an anarchist so he did not have a love of government but he enthusiastically agreed to accept the award because he believed that the city was a bastion of intellectual freedom and that his association to Vancouver through this honour would help ensure that our tradition of mental and physical freedom would not be lost.

As a city, we should not forget George Woodcock and we should not forget the stories that have been recorded by our writers over these years since he first came to this “terminal city” that was dubbed rather unambitiously, the Liverpool of the West. If we are told in 2010 that Vancouver is a world class city then it is our literature that tells us how we got here. Perhaps the question at hand is whether we are indeed a world class city and I would argue that we are but for different reasons than the world will see during the Olympics.

While the Cultural Olympiad is surely impressive: of the 193 events listed on the VANOC website only 6 of them are labelled literary events and only two of them actually are literary events that include local writers: The Vancouver International Writers Festival’s Spoken World and Candahar, a recreation of a Belfast pub that will host readings and performances as curated by Michael Turner, and may turn out to be one of the most inspired creations of the Olympiad.

There are Canadian writers involved in a few of the other 193 listed events but when it comes to the celebration stages our writers are not just neglected, they are totally ignored. As Poet Laureate I was offered time on one of the celebration stages where I would be allowed to read poems that corresponded to themes as provided to me by an Olympic bureaucrat. One of the themes was “equality” but since VANOC had blown the chance of making these Olympics the first gender inclusive Olympics in history by including a female ski jumping event I didn’t think they would appreciate a reading of the one Olympic poem I had written on equality: “In Praise of Female Athletes Who Were Told No: For the 14 female ski jumpers petitioning to be included in the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.”

In fact a reading of this poem would violate a clause in the contracts that Vancouver artists signed in order to participate in the Cultural Olympiad:

"The artist shall at all times refrain from making any negative or derogatory remarks respecting VANOC, the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Games, the Olympic movement generally, Bell and/or other sponsors associated with VANOC."

I do find this to be an unjust attack on free speech but more importantly it shows that VANOC is misrepresenting Vancouver. Vancouver is the most politically progressive city in North America with a strong history of political activism which most Vancouverites are proud of. Rather than finding a way to celebrate these important attributes VANOC has gone the other way and tried to suppress them. As George Woodcock teaches us: our freedom as a city is a tradition that should be protected and we should not underestimate an attack on that freedom whether symbolic or otherwise.

The muzzle clause, which VANOC says is standard procedure despite the fact nothing like it was included in the Torino or Salt Lake City games, came at a time when our provincial government announced its plans to cut arts funding by as much as 90%. This has put many cultural organizations in jeopardy and created tension in the arts community between those who are now prevented from speaking their mind because of their contracts and those who feel it is the right time to speak up.

In a bold act of ignorance the Federal government has announced their intentions to cut funding to cultural magazines with a circulation of fewer than 5000 copies. This issue needs to be highlighted as it illustrates a lack of understanding of the literary community and the purpose of these magazines. Our small press literary magazines should not be judged by the numbers of their readership but in their important role of cultivating Canadian writers. The combined effect of arts cuts at all levels but the civic level means that many important literary publications are in jeopardy. To add it all up from the point of view of the writing community: 2010 is not the year for writers to put on their red mittens and smile.

Vancouverites should also be concerned about the grilling that independent journalist Amy Goodman received while trying to come to Canada while on a book tour. Goodman had no plans of speaking about the Olympics while in Canada and told this to Canadian border guards but they interrogated her on the subject anyway, insisted on reading her notes and then examined her computer in an attempt to find out if she would say anything against VANOC or the Olympics. In the end they allowed her into Canada but served her with a document that demanded she leave the country within 48 hours.

Goodman is a world class journalist whose politics are more closely aligned to that of Vancouverites than those of either our Federal or Provincial governments. Even still you don’t need to share Goodman’s politics to be concerned by the fact that she was restricted from staying in Canada because she has the power and tendency to discuss and report on important political subjects.

If the muzzle clause, the harassment of journalists and the decimation of our cultural funding structures on the eve of the Cultural Olympiad were not enough to upset the ghost of George Woodcock then I’m sure this internal Library memo sent out to Vancouver Public Library staff should do the trick:

“Do not have Pepsi or Dairy Queen sponsor your event. Coke and McDonald’s are the Olympic sponsors. If you are planning a kids’ event and approaching sponsors, approach McDonald’s and not another well-known fast-food outlet. “

“If you have a speaker/guest who happens to work for Telus, ensure he/she is not wearing their Telus jacket as Bell is the official sponsor.”

“ If you have rented sound equipment and it is not Panasonic or you can’t get Panasonic, cover the brand name with tape or a cloth.”

“If you are approaching businesses in your area for support and there is a Rona and Home Depot, go to Rona. If there’s only a Home Depot don’t approach them as Rona is the official sponsor.”

If this is coming from our libraries, the custodians of the written word, where do we find the civic freedom that George Woodcock cherished and represented? Where do we find the essence of our highest civic honour, The Freedom of the City?

As darkly comic as much of this is, I am still not anti-Olympics. For this reason I made two suggestions to an Olympic organizer. The first was that a Canadian poet read one poem each night on one of the celebration stages. The second suggestion was that they somehow incorporate Al Purdy’s great Canadian poem “Say the Names” into the celebrations. Both of these suggestions were rejected and I in turn declined their offer to publicly appear during the Olympic celebrations.

I believe in our literature and I believe it is a better representation of who we are (and from where we have come) than the vision being presented about us by VANOC. I remain excited about events in the Cultural Olympiad but in regard to the Olympic celebrations, without a significant involvement from our writing community, and with restrictions on our freedom, the Olympics are a world class celebration happening in Vancouver rather than a world class celebration of Vancouver.

The great irony is that when we look to celebrate ourselves in 2010 we have simultaneously, if only temporarily, allowed Olympic bureaucrats to ignore and distort the basic principles that make Vancouver a city to be envied. There was something important that Woodcock saw in Vancouver: the freedom to be a great citizen as judged by a civic criteria that was so respectful of freedom that it could even include an anarchist like him as one of its most decorated citizens. Through our artists and through Woodcock and the writers who came after him, we have become a home to great thinking and artistic expression. That needs to be celebrated not muzzled or ignored."

Why "fly by wire" matters

11 February 2010

I spent the afternoon reading William Langewiesche's new book, Fly by Wire: The Geese, the Glide, the Miracle on the Hudson.

It is a thoroughly engrossing analysis of the USAir A320's geese strike and subsequent ditching in New York just over a year ago.

Langwiesche is a professional pilot turned journalist and he knows the industry. His book focuses on the use by Airbus of "fly by wire" technology - still an emotional subject to many in the industry who feel that control is to some extent taken away from the pilots. But Langewiesche is clear that "fly by wire" was a major and helpful contributor to the Miracle on the Hudson.

In 190 pages he presents a careful reconstruction of the Airbus' Hudson River landing. This story is layered with a detailed explanation of fly by wire technology, and of its importance. He even explains how the geese got to be in the way of the airplane.

He is full of praise for the crew. Langewiesche takes every possible opportunity to praise not only Sullenberger, whose decision-making and piloting he described as "masterful," and of the crew as well. Langewiesche goes a step further to praise the revolutionary aircraft and its forward-looking engineers led by Bernard Ziegler. But he doesn't take anything away from what Sullenberger accomplished that day.

Perhaps the most human part of Fly by Wire can be found in a gripping section where he pieces together the entire flight from inside the cabin, from take-off to the Hudson. At one point he describes how one passenger, a man, takes a woman's child and protects it against the imminent crash, at a risk to himself. "What more can be said of anyone?" Langewiesche asks.

The careful analysis of a number of other accidents is an important part of the story. The book is in many ways a critique of modern aviation. It is also a tribute to the technical advances and remarkable safety record in the industry. The author is not sensationalist in any way. But what he does try to convey is that decisions had to be taken incredibly quickly in an incident that was unprecedented and that the crew had not specifically trained for.

There were lessons to be learned. Loss of engine checklists assume that both engines are lost at cruising altitude rather than at 3,000 feet. there is simply not the time to recover and work through 3 page checklists.

But for this flight in particular I think 150 passengers owe their lives to the perfect balance of man and machine working in harmony.

AirAsia's risky Vietventure

11 February 2010

AirAsia has purchased a 30 percent stake in VietJet Aviation of Vietnam to establish a budget carrier based in the country. The new carrier will be called VietJet AirAsia. The maximum stake a foreign entity can take in a Vietnamese airline is 30 per cent.

VietJet Air was licensed to operate in December 2007 but has not launched its flights due to fuel price fluctuations and the global economic downturn that began late 2008.

The new carrier will be operating both domestic and international flights, AirAsia said. It is currently finalizing details regarding routes, frequencies and launch of flights.

The formation of the new airline makes Vietnam AirAsia’s fourth country base, following Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.

Subject to regulatory approval, the venture is expected to start operations either in April or June this year.

Air Asia will be taking on Jetstar Pacific whose reputation in Vietnam has been damaged by allegations of safety concerns and an investigation into $US31 million in hedging losses.

Two Qantas executives who hold senior positions at Jetstar Pacific have been barred from leaving Vietnam since Christmas, while the Ho Chi Minh-based airline’s former chief executive, Luong Hoai Nam, was arrested early last month over allegations he caused serious losses. There is still no sign of when the chief financial officer, Tristan Freeman, and its chief operating officer, Daniela Marsilli, will be allowed to leave Vietnam.

Qantas expects the investigation into Jetstar Pacific to take months.

The Vietnamese Ministry of Transport is also pushing to have the airline change its logo, arguing that its orange star, familiar to Australian travellers, is a corruption of the star on the Vietnamese flag.

Last month a report by the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam found safety practices at Jetstar Pacific to be ‘‘very poor and ineffective’’ and defects hidden from supervisors. Jetstar has rejected the claims.

The one month old alliance between Air Asia and Qantas (through its Jetstar franchises) already looks flakey. Tony Davis, the Tiger Airways CEO said: “We think this is hilarious. Since Qantas and Air Asia announced their so called “alliance,” Jetstar has spent over three billion dollars on a completely different engine to Air Asia for their fleet of A320s and now Air Asia is taking on Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam.

“As we said at the time, Tiger Airways does not see the value in these so called alliances and believes that recent actions have more than validated the views of many that this marriage of convenience between Qantas and Air Asia was doomed from the start.”

Air Asia may have one advantage - its local partner is a private enterprise - although presumably well connected. While the Vietnamese government's investment arm, the State Capital Investment Corporation, owns 70% of Jetstar Pacific and Qantas owns 27%. Until 2007 the airline was fully owned by the Vietnamese government.

The fuel price hedging may be custom and practice in the airline industry but in this case the decisions taken cost the state a lot of money.  Airlines use fuel futures to ensure a predictable fuel price, but they can lose big if the price of oil plummets as it did at the end of 2008. The CEO of Qantas, Alan Joyce, told reporters last week that Freeman and Marsilli did nothing wrong. The fuel hedging, Joyce said, was part of the "normal course of business practice."

I dont expect Air Asia to find operating in Vietnam to be any easier.

BYOB on American

11 February 2010

Bring Your Own Blanket on American. On May 1, the carrier will begin charging for a pillow and blanket set on all domestic flights, as well as those to or from Canada, Mexico, Hawaii, the Caribbean and Central America, according to American Airlines spokesman Tim Smith.

Assume that cabin crew will also be instructed to turn up the air conditioning to improve sales.

The $8 charge buys a blue fleece blanket and an inflatable neck pillow that fliers can use in flight and keep for future use.

"American evaluates all aspects of the business to ensure that economic decisions are prudent and strategic for the long-term success of the company," Smith said in an e-mail announcing the decision.

Passengers on international flights or in premium class cabins still will be offered complimentary blankets for use in flight.

JetBlue Airways started selling blanket and pillow packs in 2008. US Airways started charging for sleep kits last year.

No wonder people enjoy the Middle East and Asia airlines.
 

Forget all the gloom - this is too cute

10 February 2010

Actor Brian Cox attempts to teach Shakespeare's most famous soliloquy to Theo, age 2 1/2.

Dubai World debt update

10 February 2010

The lack of news from Dubai World over the last two months has hurt the Dubai markets.

State-linked indebted conglomerate Dubai World intends to officially ask creditors for a standstill on $22 billion in debt this month, until it completes its  restructuring, an Arabic-language daily (Al-Ittihad) said on Wednesday.

Citing banking sources in creditor banks, UAE's Al Ittihad said restructuring might require a period of six months.

Dubai World rocked global markets on November 25 with plans to request a delay on repaying $26 billion in debt linked to its main property units Nakheel and Limitless World. It staved off default on a $4.1 billion Islamic bond linked to Nakheel after a last-minute bailout from Abu Dhabi.

Officials from Dubai World could not immediately comment on the news.

What happened to yes we can?

10 February 2010 - Financial Times

This is an important article from the Financial Times on what has gone wrong with Obama's Presidency. It is not too late to fix things. But Obama appears increasingly aloof and indifferent - and has failed to engage America and the world.

"At a crucial stage in the Democratic primaries in late 2007, Barack Obama rejuvenated his campaign with a barnstorming speech, in which he ended on a promise of what his victory would produce: “A nation healed. A world repaired. An America that believes again.”

Just over a year into his tenure, America’s 44th president governs a bitterly divided nation, a world increasingly hard to manage and an America that seems more disillusioned than ever with Washington’s ways. What went wrong?

Pundits, Democratic lawmakers and opinion pollsters offer a smorgasbord of reasons – from Mr Obama’s decision to devote his first year in office to healthcare reform, to the president’s inability to convince voters he can “feel their [economic] pain”, to the apparent ungovernability of today’s Washington. All may indeed have contributed to the quandary in which Mr Obama finds himself. But those around him have a more specific diagnosis – and one that is striking in its uniformity. The Obama White House is geared for campaigning rather than governing, they say.

In dozens of interviews with his closest allies and friends in Washington – most of them given unattributably in order to protect their access to the Oval Office – each observes that the president draws on the advice of a very tight circle. The inner core consists of just four people – Rahm Emanuel, the pugnacious chief of staff; David Axelrod and Valerie Jarrett, his senior advisers; and Robert Gibbs, his communications chief.

Two, Mr Emanuel and Mr Axelrod, have box-like offices within spitting distance of the Oval Office. The president, who is the first to keep a BlackBerry, rarely holds a meeting, including on national security, without some or all of them present.

With the exception of Mr Emanuel, who was a senior Democrat in the House of Representatives, all were an integral part of Mr Obama’s brilliantly managed campaign. Apart from Mr Gibbs, who is from Alabama, all are Chicagoans – like the president. And barring Richard Nixon’s White House, few can think of an administration that has been so dominated by such a small inner circle.

“It is a very tightly knit group,” says a prominent Obama backer who has visited the White House more than 40 times in the past year. “This is a kind of ‘we few’ group ... that achieved the improbable in the most unlikely election victory anyone can remember and, unsurprisingly, their bond is very deep.”

John Podesta, a former chief of staff to Bill Clinton and founder of the Center for American Progress, the most influential think-tank in Mr Obama’s Washington, says that while he believes Mr Obama does hear a range of views, including dissenting advice, problems can arise from the narrow composition of the group itself.

Among the broader circle that Mr Obama also consults are the self-effacing Peter Rouse, who was chief of staff to Tom Daschle in his time as Senate majority leader; Jim Messina, deputy chief of staff; the economics team led by Lawrence Summers and including Peter Orszag, budget director; Joe Biden, the vice-president; and Denis McDonough, deputy national security adviser. But none is part of the inner circle.

“Clearly this kind of core management approach worked for the election campaign and President Obama has extended it to the White House,” says Mr Podesta, who managed Mr Obama’s widely praised post-election transition. “It is a very tight inner circle and that has its advantages. But I would like to see the president make more use of other people in his administration, particularly his cabinet.”

This White House-centric structure has generated one overriding – and unexpected – failure. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Mr Emanuel managed the legislative aspect of the healthcare bill quite skilfully, say observers. The weak link was the failure to carry public opinion – not Capitol Hill. But for the setback in Massachusetts, which deprived the Democrats of their 60-seat supermajority in the Senate, Mr Obama would by now almost certainly have signed healthcare into law – and with it would have become a historic president.

But the normally liberal voters of Massachusetts wished otherwise. The Democrats lost the seat to a candidate, Scott Brown, who promised voters he would be the “41st [Republican] vote” in the Senate – the one that would tip the balance against healthcare. Subsequent polling bears out the view that a decisive number of Democrats switched their votes with precisely that motivation in mind.

“Historians will puzzle over the fact that Barack Obama, the best communicator of his generation, totally lost control of the narrative in his first year in office and allowed people to view something they had voted for as something they suddenly didn’t want,” says Jim Morone, America’s leading political scientist on healthcare reform. “Communication was the one thing everyone thought Obama would be able to master.”

Whatever issue arises, whether it is a failed terrorist plot in Detroit, the healthcare bill, economic doldrums or the 30,000-troop surge to Afghanistan, the White House instinctively fields Mr Axelrod or Mr Gibbs on television to explain the administration’s position. “Every event is treated like a twist in an election campaign and no one except the inner circle can be trusted to defend the president,” says an exasperated outside adviser.

Perhaps the biggest losers are the cabinet members. Kathleen Sebelius, Mr Obama’s health secretary and formerly governor of Kansas, almost never appears on television and has been largely excluded both from devising and selling the healthcare bill. Others such as Ken Salazar, the interior secretary who is a former senator for Colorado, and Janet Napolitano, head of the Department for Homeland Security and former governor of Arizona, have virtually disappeared from view

Administration insiders say the famously irascible Mr Emanuel treats cabinet principals like minions. “I am not sure the president realises how much he is humiliating some of the big figures he spent so much trouble recruiting into his cabinet,” says the head of a presidential advisory board who visits the Oval Office frequently. “If you want people to trust you, you must first place trust in them.”

In addition to hurling frequent profanities at people within the administration, Mr Emanuel has alienated many of Mr Obama’s closest outside supporters. At a meeting of Democratic groups last August, Mr Emanuel described liberals as “f***ing retards” after one suggested they mobilise resources on healthcare reform.

“We are treated as though we are children,” says the head of a large organisation that raised millions of dollars for Mr Obama’s campaign. “Our advice is never sought. We are only told: ‘This is the message, please get it out.’ I am not sure whether the president fully realises that when the chief of staff speaks, people assume he is speaking for the president.”

The same can be observed in foreign policy. On Mr Obama’s November trip to China, members of the cabinet such as the Nobel prizewinning Stephen Chu, energy secretary, were left cooling their heels while Mr Gibbs, Mr Axelrod and Ms Jarrett were constantly at the president’s side.

The White House complained bitterly about what it saw as unfairly negative media coverage of a trip dubbed Mr Obama’s “G2” visit to China. But, as journalists were keenly aware, none of Mr Obama’s inner circle had any background in China. “We were about 40 vans down in the motorcade and got barely any time with the president,” says a senior official with extensive knowledge of the region. “It was like the Obama campaign was visiting China.”

Then there are the president’s big strategic decisions. Of these, devoting the first year to healthcare is well known and remains a source of heated contention. Less understood is the collateral damage it caused to unrelated initiatives. “The whole Rahm Emanuel approach is that victory begets victory – the success of healthcare would create the momentum for cap-and-trade [on carbon emissions] and then financial sector reform,” says one close ally of Mr Obama. “But what happens if the first in the sequence is defeat?”

Insiders attribute Mr Obama’s waning enthusiasm for the Arab-Israeli peace initiative to a desire to avoid antagonising sceptical lawmakers whose support was needed on healthcare. The steam went out of his Arab-Israeli push in mid-summer, just when the healthcare bill was running into serious difficulties.

The same applies to reforming the legal apparatus in the “war on terror” – not least his pledge to close the Guantánamo Bay detention centre within a year of taking office. That promise has been abandoned.

“Rahm said: ‘We’ve got these two Boeing 747s circling that we are trying to bring down to the tarmac [healthcare and the decision on the Afghanistan troop surge] and we can’t risk a flock of f***ing Canadian geese causing them to crash,’ ” says an official who attended an Oval Office strategy meeting. The geese stood for the closure of Guantánamo.

An outside adviser adds: “I don’t understand how the president could launch healthcare reform and an Arab-Israeli peace process – two goals that have eluded US presidents for generations – without having done better scenario planning. Either would be historic. But to launch them at the same time?”

Again, close allies of the president attribute the problem to the campaign-like nucleus around Mr Obama in which all things are possible. “There is this sense after you have won such an amazing victory, when you have proved conventional wisdom wrong again and again, that you can simply do the same thing in government,” says one. “Of course, they are different skills. To be successful, presidents need to separate the stream of advice they get on policy from the stream of advice they get on politics. That still isn’t happening.”

The White House declined to answer questions on whether Mr Obama needed to broaden his circle of advisers. But some supporters say he should find a new chief of staff. Mr Emanuel has hinted that he might not stay in the job very long and is thought to have an eye on running for mayor of Chicago. Others say Mr Obama should bring in fresh blood. They point to Mr Clinton’s decision to recruit David Gergen, a veteran of previous White Houses, when the last Democratic president ran into trouble in 1993. That is credited with helping to steady the Clinton ship, after he too began with an inner circle largely carried over from his campaign.

But Mr Gergen himself disagrees. Now teaching at Harvard and commenting for CNN, Mr Gergen says members of the inner circle meet two key tests. First, they are all talented. Second, Mr Obama trusts them. “These are important attributes,” Mr Gergen says. His biggest doubt is whether Mr Obama sees any problem with the existing set-up.

“There is an old joke,” says Mr Gergen. “How many psychiatrists does it take to change a lightbulb? Only one. But the lightbulb must want to change. I don’t think President Obama wants to make any changes.”

The Obama Team:

David Axelrod, senior adviser

A former journalist on the Chicago Tribune who quit to set up a political advertising firm, Mr Axelrod, 54, is Barack Obama’s longest-standing mentor, from his days in Chicago politics. Always at the candidate’s side during the election campaign, he is the chief defender of the Obama brand. Still a journalist at heart, he describes himself as having been “posted to Washington”.


Robert Gibbs, communications chief

The most visible face of the White House for his sardonic daily briefings. Mr Gibbs, 38, is perhaps the least likely member of the circle – he is a career Democratic press officer from Alabama who quit John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign and shortly afterwards went to work for Senator Obama. A constant presence during the campaign, he is also seen as a keeper of the flame.

Rahm Emanuel, chief of staff

The best story about Mr Emanuel, 50, concerns the dead fish he delivered to a pollster who displeased him. The least honey-tongued politician in Washington, he is also one of the most effective. Friends say he is relentlessly energetic, critics that he has attention deficit disorder. He has enemies but even detractors concede he may well achieve his aim of becoming the first Jewish speaker of the House of Representatives.

Valerie Jarrett, senior adviser

An old friend of the Obamas, having hired Michelle to work in Chicago politics in the early 1990s, Ms Jarrett, 53, is probably the first family’s most intimate White House confidante. A former businessperson and aide to Richard Daley, mayor of Chicago, she was briefly considered as a candidate to fill Mr Obama’s Senate seat. She was part of the circle he consulted before running for president.

Man claims fiancee hid beard under niqab

10 February 2010

The Gulf News has a report today of an  Arab ambassador who decided to call off his wedding immediately after he discovered that his wife-to-be, who wears a niqab, was bearded and cross-eyed.

The ambassador claimed that the bride's mother deceived his mother, when she went to see his Gulf national wife-to-be, by showing her pictures of the bride's sister.

The Arab man, who also holds the title of minister plenipotentiary, claimed to a Sharia court judge in Dubai that the bride's family showed his mother photos of the bride's sister and not the woman he was going to marry.

Sources close to the case told Gulf News that the groom only saw the woman a few times. He did not realise that she had a beard because she wore the niqab the few times he met her, added the source.

"Every time the couple met, the bride would do her best not to reveal her entire face. After the ambassador and the woman, who is a physician, signed the marriage contract, the groom was sitting with the bride… he claimed to the Sharia court officials that when he wanted to kiss his wife-to-be, he discovered that she was bearded and cross-eyed as well," claimed the source.

The ambassador then decided to call off the wedding party and lodged a divorce claim alleging that he was tricked by his parents-in-law and incurred emotional and moral damage.

The court divorced the couple and rejected the groom's request that the pre-marriage gifts be returned.
 

Cathay CEO rubbishes Gulf airlines

10 February 2010

In an interesting and rather defensive interview with Arabian Business the CEO of Cathay Pacific has claimed it will take Gulf carriers at least a “generation” to catch up with the levels of in-flight service offered by the Hong Kong-based carrier.

The gap is almost certainly closer than Tyler admits and his comments sound like those of a leader who is under pressure.

“They [Gulf carriers] win lots of awards, but you know, in 2009 Cathay Pacific was the airline of the year from [independent aviation watchdog] Skytrax. In the last seven or eight years we have won that twice,” Tony Tyler told Arabian Business on Monday.

“It is pretty easy to win the awards from magazines, which are very largely driven by advertising budgets. We are never going to win an award which is based on an advertising budget because we don’t have a very big advertising budget,” he added.

Cathay Pacific, which was founded in 1946, last year flew to 115 destinations in 36 countries. However, in 2008, it lost $1bn, due in part to rocketing fuel prices. The airline reacted by sending crew on unpaid leave; putting airplanes into the desert and cutting costs where it could.

Tyler added: “We spread our brand more by way of our product… On the hard product side, we are only nine [seats] abreast on our 777s. Gulf carriers tend to go ten abreast. It makes a huge difference in economy class. But really it is the soft product that other airlines will take a generation to develop, if they’re lucky.”

On the 777 seats he is in part right. But Emirates offers a little more legroom and that is a bigger issue for most people. But Tyler may be regretting that he did not go 10 across. More passengers with no additional costs.

When asked how Cathay compared to leading Gulf carriers, Tyler claimed that the Cathay “culture” was unparalleled.

“I do believe that while it is possible to copy airlines’ hard product, the quality of the human service that our cabin crew give is unrivalled by any airline… And that is not something you can easily copy. It is something that is built up over years of development and management and training. It is culture building, if you like, and the particular flavour of the Cathay Pacific service is something that is unique and I believe it is better.”

Cathay's soft product is ailing; it has been for some time. Cost cutting demotivates crew. The all Asian crew is mostly a little more service focused than their western counterparts; but the Gulf carriers have plenty of Asian crew and the international crew mix probably better reflects the international transiting passenger base. 

Tyler did say that the Gulf carriers offered stiff competition to the whole airline industry.

Asked if he thought Gulf carriers paid the same prices for fuel as non-Gulf carriers, he said: “They always say they do. So I suppose I have to take their word for it… That is what they say. But some carriers tanker fuel out of places that we tanker fuel into, but perhaps they just have a different way of looking at it than we do.”

He added that Cathay was not overly concerned by the threat posed to its traffic volumes by Gulf carriers. Cathay should not be that threatened - the Gulf carriers really do not compete that much with Cathay which predominantly uses Hong Kong as a destination airport; a very different model from the hub airport at Dubai. There is not that much transit business at Hong Kong; even less now with direct flights from Taiwan to mainland China.

It is Singapore Air, Malaysian and Thai Airways who are under greater threat from the Gulf airlines; in particular on the Europe to Australia routes.

“The fact is that between the major origins and destinations that we serve, we still offer a greatly superior product in terms of schedule and frequency, not to mention the onboard product. So we are certainly not an airline who feels our very livelihood is being threatened by the Gulf carriers,” he said.

Mr. Tyler may talk a good story; but the reality is that Cathay Pacific is under pressure. And as the Gulf carriers start to offer more flights into China there is less need to transit through Hong Kong. By the end of 2010 Emirates will be flying its A380 to both Beijing and Shanghai. That offers a hard product far in advance of Cathay's aging fleet.

Executive Towers update

10 February 2010

By popular request here is an update on my move!

The one operating elevator in tower B has been a fun way of sharing the misery with other owners and tenants. I even had a visit from a Finnish journalist and photographer who had seen my blog comments and pictures!

They were the only thing remotely near "Finnish-ed" at Executive Towers.

My move was last Wednesday. With only one operating elevator the guys doing my move were remarkably patient.

None of the other 7 apartments on my floor are occupied - indeed all 7 are being renovated/repaired/cleaned up this week. And there is dust everywhere. Mostly seeping into my apartment.

I have painted walls in the living room and main bedroom and put a bit of colour in the place. And made far less mess in the process than the contractors.

I have cleaned, mopped and scrubbed the floors - the tile grouting is cleaned easily using spare hotel toothbrushes.

Curtains were ordered on Thursday and installed today - this is the second time this guy has done work for me. I like his work. PM me if anyone wants a curtain making contact.

The two bathrooms were designed by a very small person. Which makes little sense in a 1,550 square foot apartment.

The bath is so small that it does comply with Dubai's rules on conservative behavior. Because there is no way in the world that you could get two people into the bath or shower. You cannot even get two people in the bathroom.

The built in wardrobes in the spare bedroom were stripped out and rebuilt - this was all going on during and after the move. They finished on Sunday. But - they have ripped tiles off the skirting board and plaster off the surrounding walls.....more work for the working men to do....this could be a job for life....

On the subject or wardrobes - for a big two bedroom apartment there is a woeful lack of storage space and the built in units were obviously designed by a man who has only one suit and a few shirts....this must have been designed by a man - a woman would have known better.

The cooker on-off switch was eventually installed on Sunday.

The woodwork - doors and frames are just awful. I am told they will clean and polish them which may help. I have no idea when.

I do think Idama are doing there best - and the guys I deal with there are polite and do try. But they have been given the most thankless of tasks my inept or non existant project management and a shameless developer.

And no internet/tv/phone. How on earth can anyone justify that the building is complete and ready for handover when basic amenities dont exist?

Guess it could have been worse - we could have been stuck in the Burj Khalifa elevator for 45 minutes and salvaged by a rescue team with ladders....but the local media accept the EMAAR story that the viewing gallery had to be closed due to higher than expected visitor numbers. The tickets are all timed and the number of visitors controlled ?

I have this dream that someone from Dubai Properties will one day be honest and say sorry - and yes we could have done better. In the meantime I guess I can enjoy the pou pourri in the rather oddly thought out welcome basket - is that really the best they can do when they are already two years late ?!

And for my AED1,000 a month management fee all I have seen from Salwan is a poster to elminate plastic bags. I would if I didnt have so much dirt and dust to chuck out of the apartment.

The contractors are highly entrepreneurial - dont think I need say more -

The 2 hour lunchbreak is interesting - apparently so as not to disturb families living in the building. Lunch break is quickly followed by tea break !

And who put the toilet roll holder the far side of the bidet rather than next to the toilet - you need extra long arms and the flexibility of a contortionist to get anywhere near to it.

And who decided to rename the buildings - no more Executive Towers - instead Eastern and Western Heights? That is always a good plan. When something has been hideously bad rename it!

Lawyers finalise Thaksin case

10 February 2010

A simple summary of the Thaksin assets case from the Bangkok Post

"The prosecution has presented its closing statement in the case of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 76 billion baht in frozen assets.

Wirote Sridussadee, a member of the prosecution team in charge of the case, yesterday submitted the 121-page closing statement to the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions. The prosecution is seeking the seizure of the assets.

The prosecutors said in their closing argument that Thaksin acquired his assets through abuse of authority. They also outlined alleged conflicts of interest.

They recommended the assets be confiscated and transferred to the state.

Somporn Pongsuwan, a lawyer representing Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra, Thaksin's former wife, presented a closing statement rebutting the prosecution case by focusing on 16 key areas.

Kittiporn Adulrat, a lawyer representing two of Thaksin's three children, Panthongtae and Pinthongta, said the two would submit their closing arguments today.

Thaksin's lawyers presented their closing statement to the Supreme Court on Jan 21. The court will deliver its verdict on whether the assets were acquired illegally on Feb 26.

If found guilty, Thaksin would lose the 76 billion baht he allegedly accumulated during his two terms in office from 2001 to 2006.

The Office of the Attorney-General, representing the 2006 coup-appointed and now disbanded Assets Scrutiny Committee, sought a court order to confiscate the 76.6 billion baht in assets which it alleged had been acquired illegally by the Shinawatra family.

The prosecutors have accused Thaksin of concealing his ownership of Shin Corp shares while devising government policies that benefited the Shinawatra family business.

Thaksin and Khunying Potjaman, declared to the National Anti-Corruption Commission that they had sold most of their 48% stake in Shin Corp to their two children to comply with the law which prohibited them from holding a stake of 5% or more.

However, the prosecutors said inquiries by the Department of Special Investigation and the Securities and Exchange Commission found the couple still held the shares through shell companies Ample Rich Co and Win Mark Co.

The prosecutors said Thaksin's claims that he sold his shares in Ample Rich to his son Panthongtae were unfounded.

The prosecutors said there was evidence the money spent on buying the Ample Rich shares was paid through an account held by Khunying Potjaman.

As such, the 48% stake in Shin Corp was still held by Thaksin during his two terms in office as prime minister, the prosecutors said.

Charges in the case also centre on telecom policies implemented by the Thaksin government from 2001 to 2006.

Prosecutors said the policies, including the introduction of excise tax collection for telecom businesses, unfairly benefited Shin Corp.

Speaking after a meeting of Puea Thai Party MPs yesterday, Chaiyaphum MP Praset Chaiwirattana said the assets seizure case was discussed at the meeting and most MPs believed all the assets would be confiscated.

Manit Chitchankloab, a Puea Thai list-MP and a former Supreme Court judge, said Thaksin loyalists must look ahead to try to bring the seized assets back by a "public mandate".

Mr Manit said Puea Thai would return to power after the next election and find ways to retrieve all the seized assets.

Thaksin is the de facto leader of the Puea Thai Party."
 

Dubai offered an alternative future
Simeon Kerr in The Financial Times

9 February 2010

"In Dubai, last year’s annus horribilis which combined recession, debt and a bail-out by Abu Dhabi, is provoking some serious soul-searching.

“Never has so much damage been done to so many by so few,” opined one Emirati at the time, reflecting the widespread frustration of the reputational and financial impact wrought by the miscalculation of “25/11” . On November 25 last year, the government called for a delay in repaying $26bn owed by Dubai World, a state-owned conglomerate.

The outward response, driven by officials and some local media, has been to blame the foreign press for exaggerating the emirate’s downfall in an alleged orgy of prejudice and schadenfreude.

Others, though, are considering the emirate’s history to identify problems and potential solutions.

In a place where discussion rarely breaks out beyond night-time chat shows and the closed walls of the majlis, Mishaal al-Gergawi, a young government official and media commentator, last month gave a talk on the city he loves, in a rare moment of civic debate.

In a potted history of Dubai from its emergence as a tax-free centre at the turn of the 20th century, he outlined the mistakes of recent years and explored a roadmap for revival in a city where the vision of the future is usually received, rather than debated. He lambasted the lieutenants who surrounded Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler. He said they had cut corners as they competed for the sheikh’s favour, driving up the emirate’s debt to unsustainable levels in the process.

Mr Gergawi went on to talk about a long-term residency programme, so that second- and third-generation expatriates become greater stakeholders in the emirate, and reforming recruitment practices to introduce better standards to the labour market.

To try to reach beyond the city’s twitterati and to show that his ideas are not the preserve of “chichi expatriates and disorientated Emiratis”, Mr Gergawi is soon to target an Arabic-speaking audience with the same call to reshape their city.

His ideas stem from a realisation among those Dubai residents who have studied abroad that the city can change by extending its ambition beyond gleaming towers into developing communities and different industries.

Mr Gergawi’s critique is perhaps more in line with the views of the merchant families, many of whom have been drafted into government over the past year, presaging a return to the traditional role of government as a facilitator rather than a business force.

Sheikh Mohammed, as prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, last weekend outlined a new vision for the country by 2021, focusing on moderate economic growth, healthcare and education – a marked change from the grand plans of the past decade that boasted of fantastical economic growth figures.

Mr Gergawi, whose uncle has been a driving force in the emirate’s development over the past decade, is by no means alone in promoting the benefits of small government and private enterprise.

The city’s success was founded on an efficient administration facilitating the operations of business and taking a cut from trading profits. But by the late 1990s, the government began to compete across vast swathes of the economy, from media to real estate, tourism to retail.

Yet in spite of the crash of the debt-fuelled property sector, new industries have sprouted and continue to thrive.

The vibrancy of Dubai’s art and culture scene in the warehouses of the al-Quoz industrial district pays testament to a grassroots movement that has shifted away from pure commercialism. Such organic development will attract residents just as the bustling trade around Deira district previously sparked the city’s expansion.

Implementation of new laws and regulations – from bankruptcy to property regulation – is certainly crucial to the city’s economy. But the Dubai government could also learn a lesson from the areas where its footprint has been light. Less could mean more as the emirate seeks a revival."

Building up to BT day

9 February 2010

BT day is either Break Thaksin day or Bankrupt Thaksin day. The objective is the same.

Closing arguments were made in court today and Thailand's attorney-general  said that he wants all of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's US$2.2 billion fortune to be seized by the court in its ruling due on 26 February.

Chief of the attorney-general's team, Mr Sekesan Bangsomboon, said the 121-page final document had been submitted to the Supreme Court 'to explain why the assets should be seized and we have asked the court to seize all of it'. Thaksin is living in exile to escape a two-year jail term for graft handed to him in absentia in October 2008.

On Feb 26 the Supreme Court will decide whether the fortune of the telecoms tycoon - frozen in the months after he was deposed in a coup in 2006 - can be seized by authorities.

Thaksin's lawyer submitted a closing statement on his behalf in late January, denying that the former leader used his power as prime minister to obtain his wealth.

Thaksin's ex-wife, Ms Pojaman Damapong, argued in her closing statement that many of the assets that prosecutors argue were transferred to her by her then-husband, in fact belonged to her before the marriage.

Thaksin loyalists are stepping up anti-government demonstrations ahead of the court date. The government has begun to deploy at least 20,000 extra security forces across the country in case of a populist backlash if the court rules to seize Thaksin's fortune.

There is trouble ahead.

Credibility starts by telling the truth

9 February 2010

Part of Dubai's problem at the moment is that no one wants, or dares, or is empowered to tell the truth. So no one believes official statements. Some will argues that the doubters are just part of the "beat up on Dubai" team. But that misses the point completely.

Tell the truth up front; be open, honest, accountable. And credibility will be restored quicker that you can imagine. Continue to hide behind walls of silence or to simply mislead people will only damage Dubai.

The Burj Khalifa closure is a classic example. And sadly the local media are totally compliant and accept all they are told by officials without question.

This was the Burj spoksman's comment two days ago - "Due to unexpected high traffic, the observation deck experience at the Burj Khalifa, At the Top, has been temporarily closed for maintenance and upgrade." Never mind that all tickets were timed and visitor numbers strictly controlled.

Now the truth starts to emerge:

The Associated Press is reporting that a faulty elevator was behind the shutdown of the observation deck on the world’s tallest tower that effectively closed the half-mile-high Burj Khalifa to the public, witnesses and a Dubai rescue official said today.

Visitors who were on the viewing floor at the time of Saturday’s incident said they heard a loud noise, then saw what looked like smoke but turned out to be dust seeping out of the crack in one of the elevator doors.

“It almost sounded like a small explosion. It was a really loud bang,” said Michael Timms, 31, an American telecommunications engineer who lives in Dubai and was visiting the tower with his cousin Michele Moscato.

About 45 minutes later, rescue crews arrived and pried open the elevator door, Mr. Timms said. The faulty elevator was caught between floors, so rescuers hoisted a ladder into the shaft to help those trapped inside get out.

Abu Naseer, a spokesman for Dubai’s civil defence department, confirmed the incident. He said the call for help came in around 6:20 p.m. Saturday evening.

Emergency crews used another elevator to reach the observation deck and were able to rescue all 15 people stuck inside the faulty elevator unharmed, he said.

The 2,717-foot (828-metre) building’s owner, Emaar Properties, has revealed few details about the incident since closing the observation deck indefinitely.

In a brief statement Monday, the company said the viewing platform was temporarily shut for “maintenance and upgrade” because of “unexpected high traffic.” It also hinted at electrical problems, saying “technical issues with the power supply are being worked on by the main and subcontractors.”

Emaar has made no mention of problems with the elevators. That angers some involved in the incident.

“What just kind of shocks me is that they were going to brush this under the rug to save face. If it broke, at least tell people it broke,” Mr. Timms said.

The company has not responded to specific questions about the incident or made anyone available to speak despite repeated requests by the Associated Press.

Witnesses say the company provided little information to visitors stuck on the 124th floor observation deck as rescue crews worked. That lack of information caused panic among some visitors.

The people trapped in the elevator and an estimated 60 other visitors on the observation deck were eventually taken down in a freight elevator not normally used by the public.

The observation deck, which is mostly enclosed but includes an outdoor terrace bordered by guard rails, is located about two-thirds of the way up the tower on the 124th floor.

Talk about double standards

Chang Noi - for the Nation - February 8, 2010

"The term "double standards" sounds innocent enough. But in a society where inequalities are so steep and stark, a simple call for equitable enforcement of the law can become political dynamite.

The phrase was introduced into Thailand's modern political history in 2001. Then it was used in English, and it attracted immediate attention in part because the use of a non-Thai phrase was unusual and eye-catching.

The Thai version, song matrathan, started to become popular in 2008. Supporters of Thaksin used the phrase to highlight what they saw as glaring bias in the judicial system. According to them, Thaksin was being persecuted by legal process, while the yellow shirts seemed to be able to break any number of laws with total impunity. After the judicial overthrow of the Samak and Somchai governments in late 2008, the phrase became central to the publicity of the red-shirt movement. It no longer refers to the rather narrow area of judicial bias, but focuses criticism against the wider and deeper inequality in society. Recently at Khao Yao Thiang and at the Soi Dao Golf Club, speakers asked the crowd why certain kinds of people seem to get away with almost anything. The phrase has spun out of control.

In Thailand, there is a close connection between power and illegality, between social status and defiance of the law. Often, laws seem to exist precisely to allow certain people the very special privilege of being able to flout them. If you have a big enough car, you need not worry too much about traffic regulations. If you have the right background and position, you can carry as much excess luggage as you like. With good political connections, even if you are accused of corruption in an overseas country, nobody investigates, lays charges or takes steps to prevent you doing a bunk. [RAS - this does not of course apply solely to Thailand!]

In any society, real power is having the ability to write these sorts of privileges into the law and constitution. In old Siam, the aristocracy once enjoyed many such immunities and privileges, but over the past century almost all of them have been swept away. Then, through a half-century of political dominance, the military high command established a new structure of legalised inequalities. Soldiers are protected from the normal operation of the judicial system. When generals openly flout the law, we are told they are immune to anything more serious than a reprimand. In case after case when massive land encroachment has come to light, the issue has faded once it emerged that senior officials were involved.

When the foundations of a society shift in a big way, these arrangements need to be adjusted to match the new social realities. Over the last half-century in Thailand, a new corporate elite and much expanded upper middle class have become wealthier and more powerful. Although every now and then these new forces have challenged the privileges and immunities of the old powers, generally they have taken the smoother route of buying their way into the system.

The key institution for this process has been Parliament or the political system as a whole. This has been the arena where new money meets with old power, and where the two parties sit down and make a deal. The Thai political system has been a failure in many ways, but in this respect it has functioned brilliantly. The systems of political recruitment have been fine-tuned to ensure that money is practically the sole qualifying factor. Although sometimes analysts try to detect political conflicts between "new money" and "old money", in reality money has no age. In current Thai politics, money is money. Many political leaders are ready to admit that money is now the "blood" that keeps Thai politics alive and kicking. The source of the money is of no interest, only the amount. Under Thaksin, several Cabinet posts were reserved for "party financiers", people who often appeared from out of nowhere with no track record. The system only came slightly unstuck when a particularly flagrant share ramper was given a Cabinet post. Recent vacancies in the Cabinet have incited fierce competition. Corporate interests that are prepared to pay their political dues have very rapidly acquired influence in the background.

But the political system as it currently operates only helps to adjust the realities of wealth and power within a very narrow range. The big story of the past generation has been the overall tripling of incomes, the accompanying rise in ambition and aspiration among the masses of the population, and growing calls for a more inclusive equity. It began with NGOs, the path-breaking campaigns of the Assembly of the Poor, and a demand for rights that applied equally to everyone. It changed Thaksin from being a businessman to a populist.

The growing political significance of the judiciary over the last few years has given this trend a new twist. While the judicial system may not in fact perform in the service of equity, the justification for the importance of the judiciary is that there really is a rule of law that applies to all. Leading judges repeat this idea in defending themselves against bias. The claim was written into the landmark judgment against Pojaman.

The idea of equity under the law is now very prominent in public debate, yet the political structure still in place is designed precisely to preserve privileges by the evasion or manipulation of the law. This creates a situation so fragile that new challenges can come from anywhere. The red shirts decide to pinpoint Khao Yai Thiang. The Thai Airways union raises the excess baggage scandal. Community NGOs trip up Map Ta Phut. Nothing seems sacred any more. Illustrious institutions. The power of a big surname and an exalted position. The importance of economic growth over the health and well-being of ordinary people.

"Double standards" is a rather clumsy expression. It doesn't have the poetic ring of "liberty, equality, fraternity" or "workers of the world unite." But it is the catchphrase of the moment."
 

In Thailand 41% has replaced 25%

8 February 2010

The Bangkok Post is reporting that a multi-billion-baht convention centre planned for Phuket under the Thai Khem Khaeng investment programme has been stalled amid corruption allegations, according to Finance Ministry officials.

Designers and architects bidding for the project have allegedly been asked for kickbacks as high as 41% from state officials. This is Phuket - in Thailand's south. The south is largely Democrat country - as a reminder the Democrats lead the current army supported Thai government.

But 41%. Under Thaksin the standard appeared to only be 25%.

A total of 2.6 billion baht has been allocated to the project, with one educational institution awarded 100 million baht to develop designs for the new international centre.

But sources said that local politicians with interests in the project demanded kickbacks of as much as 45% for the contract. Final "tea money" payments were settled at 41 million baht, or 41%, for the deal.

The Treasury Department, the project developer, had wanted to retain Thammasat University as the designer. But university officials refused to pay any kickbacks and pulled out of the bidding.

The programme was originally budgeted at 3.75 billion baht, and was to include not only an international convention centre but also a top-class hotel. Development plans were later scaled back, with the hotel eliminated and the budget cut to 2.6 billion baht.

The project, located on 150 rai of public land in Thalang district, was originally initiated in 2007.

Construction is expected to take two years.
 

Thai military anticipate court verdict

8 February 2010

In Thailand, from 15 February, combined police, military and civilian forces will be despatched to 38 provinces where the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) is expected to step up activities in the lead-up to Feb 26, acting government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said on Monday.

The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Position is scheduled to deliver its verdict on whether to seize the 76 billion baht assets of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his family on Feb 26.

It really does look as though the government and military are assuming a guilty verdict.

The spokesman said 160-200 checkpoints would also be gradually set up in Bangkok and nearby provinces after February15.

The government would keep the situation under watch and impose special laws, particularly the Internal Security Act, if necessary, Mr Panitan said.

He said stringent measures would continue even after February 26 because some UDD groups might still be active.

Banks express concern at debt deal

7 February 2010

Dubai World, has hit an obstacle in its negotiations over a proposed temporary halt to its US$22 billion debt.

The conglomerate, which is owned by the Dubai Government, said in November that it would seek to delay debt repayments to 97 banks so it could take time to restructure.

Recovery action on the debts has been stayed since Dubai World asked the debtor banks to hold off.

But many banks are concerned about the standstill proposals, with a sticking point in negotiations being the Dubai Financial Support Fund’s plans to take security in exchange for the money that it would pump into Dubai World to keep up interest payments.

Dubai World has received about $6.2 billion in aid from the DFSF, which is a government entity set up to distribute the proceeds of a $20 billion bond program to struggling state-owned firms.

Securing fund injections against Dubai World’s assets would make the DFSF a preferred creditor of the conglomerate, moving it in front of banks and other institutions.

The banks are concerned the fund would then be the first in line to receive funds in the event of an insolvency.

Dubai World, which counts the property developer Nakheel and the ports operator DP World as part of its group, fell into financial hardship after revenues dried up for major infrastructure projects.

Burj Khalifa closed after only a month

7 February 2010

The Gulf News is reporting today that the Burj Khalifa observation deck has been temporarily closed for "maintenance and upgrade". Closing the tower a  little more than one month after it opened is worrying. Apparently there are problems with the power supply.

A spokesperson for Burj Khalifa, said: "Due to unexpected high traffic, the observation deck experience at the Burj Khalifa, At the Top, has been temporarily closed for maintenance and upgrade.

"Technical issues with the power supply are being worked on by the main and sub-contractors and the public will be informed upon completion."

It is not yet known when At the Top, which is located on the 124th floor will reopen to the public.

The spokesperson added: "Guests who hold valid tickets to the experience will be offered the option to re-book or receive an immediate refund.  All ticket holders who wish to re-book shall be given top priority. We maintain and remain committed to the highest quality standards at Burj Khalifa."

The mixed use tower’s apartments are to be handed over its owners next month while the Armani hotel is to open March 18.

Burj Khalifa, the 828-metre building from the developer Emaar, opened on January 4 with a large fireworks display.

With expensive ticket prices and the number of visitors being strictly controlled the number of visitors can have been no more than was either anticipated or planned for. So explaining this as an upgrade due to "high traffic" makes little sense.

Given that none of the offices or apartments in the building are yet occupied and the entrance areas closed off to all but contractors maybe another opening ceremony is required when the building is truly open for business.
 

DSF now is the Dubai Selling Festival

7 February 2010

The Sunday Times reports today on the proposed sale by Dubai World of the old Queen Elizabeth II cruise liner now moored at Port Rashid.

According to the newspaper, owner Dubai World plans to sell a raft of assets, including the luxury liner owned by its private equity arm Istithmar. Other assets which could be up for sale include Canadian circus group Cirque du Soleil.

Rumours of the sale have continued since November. Earlier this year, it emerged that a plan to sail the QE2 to South Africa, in time for the World Cup, had been shelved.

Istithmar has already been forced to sell assets. Last year it was forced to accept just $2m for its W Hotel in New York, sustaining a massive $283m loss. The group has also recently put Inchcape Shipping Services, the UK port and shipping agent, up for sale with a price tag of $700m, and last week sold its stake in Indian budget airline Spice Jet.

Selling the QE2 would represent Dubai’s highest-profile divestment to date. But to be honest it is a sale of an asset that really has no use or value in Dubai at present. There was a plan to moor it as a tourist attraction off the Palm Jumeira close to the Atlantis Resort but to date the ship has not left its temporary dock.

Times are changing in Dubai, and purchases of trophy assets are clearly a thing of the past.

Here we go again in KL

4 February 2010

Did he or didn't he?

Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia's long suffering opposition leader, is back in court -a and again the charge is sodomy - which is illegal in Malaysia - even between consenting adults.

Anwar was previously charged in 1998 and convicted of sodomising his family driver. Malaysia's top court overthrew this conviction in 2004; but only after Mahathir Mohammed the hard line ex Malaysian Prine Minister has left office.

Now over a decade later the same charge is alleged - albeit this time with one of his former aides,

The prosecution will apparently produce semen samples - that will be revolting - the alleged  incident occurred in June 20008 and was reporeted by the aide to the police two days later - how did they get semen samples? In 1998 they wheeled the bed into court on which the act was alleged to have taken place!

The prosecution has not given the defense access to any of its medical evidence.

Anwar claims again that the case is part of a high level conspiracy to stop his political movement which may have the power to dislodge the UNMO led government that has ruled Malaysia for more than five decades.

But if the charge is political couldn't they at least have come up with something a little more original.

In the end the truth is known by only two people - the accused and the defendant.

Which is all the more reason why what goes on behind closed doors between consenting adults should not be a matter for the courts, the media, the public, or in any way stop people from holding office.

Blooming in Dubai

1 February 2010

Bloomingdales opened in the Dubai Mall today.

It is the luxury retailer’s first-ever store abroad. And it opened at a cost of about AED270million. It is very different from Bloomingdales in Manhattan with a focus on ultra-high fashion instead of accessible luxury. There are two Bloomingdale’s outposts in the mall, one dedicated to fashion and the other to home. The two are not connected which is rather strange.

Macy’s Inc., which owns Bloomingdales, has joined up with Dubai-based Al Tayer Group to open the store. Al Tayer runs the Middle Eastern operations of a ton of Western retailers, including Balenciaga, Stella McCartney and others like Harvey Nichols and Gap.

Bloomingdales cuts its overheads by having stores in store; including Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga and Yves Saint Laurent.

In the Lower Ground floor home section you can find an outpost of Forty Carrots, the famed frozen yogurt shop and a Magnolia bakery; baking expensive cup cakes.

Bloomingdales plans on distinguishing itself from Dubai’s vast array of departments stores—including Galleries Lafayette, the aforementioned Harvey Nichols and Saks Fifth Avenue through a focus on brands you can’t find anywhere else in the region.

I had a quick walk around both sections of the store. It is upmarket. There are lots of staff all in smart grey/black suits. And the price tags are very small. But if you need to check the price tags in this store you should not be shopping there anyway. This is a store for people with money to burn. The rest of us are just sightseeing.

Will it work? Well, despite the fact that the entire country is in financial shambles, shopping is still the number one leisure activity in Dubai. So probably.

Flying Cheap

1 February 2010

One year ago, Continental Flight 3407 crashed outside of Buffalo, N.Y., killing 49 people onboard and one on the ground. Although 3407 was painted in the colors of Continental Connection, it was actually operated by Colgan Air, a regional airline that flies routes under contract for US Airways, United and Continental. The crash and subsequent investigation revealed a little-known trend in the airline industry: major airlines have outsourced more and more of their flights to obscure regional carriers.

In the USA regional airlines account for more than half of all scheduled domestic flights in the United States and have been responsible for the last six fatal commercial airline accidents. So TV's FRONTLINE producer Rick Young and correspondent Miles O’Brien have investigated the safety issues associated with outsourcing in their documentary "Flying Cheap" which will air on Tuesday, Feb. 9, 2010, at 9 P.M. ET on PBS (check local listings).

The captain had failed five flight tests in his career and received inadequate training on a critical safety system involved in the crash. The co-pilot was making less than US$16,000 a year and had commuted overnight the previous night from the west coast. There are a good number of regional airline pilots that are working second jobs and overnighting on lounge room La-Z-Boys.

The flights still carry the codes and colors of the major airlines. But fewer and fewer of the majors are actually flying the commuter planes. That job is increasingly outsourced to small regional companies with names most of us hardly know.

This is all a part of a fiercely competitive industry driven by passengers who want the lowest possible airfares. 

The link above is to a part of the broadcast. Frontline talked to two former Colgan pilots who agreed to speak publicly for the first time.

The industry turned to regional outsourcing in the wake of deregulation and competitive pressure from new low-cost carriers such as Southwest.  The major airlines created the regional industry as a way of lowering costs.

The regional industry argues that flying is safer than ever. Despite the string of accidents among the regionals, the overall fatality rate has continued to decline since deregulation.

But are the public willing to pay more for greater oversight, better training and more experienced crews?

The end of NASA as we know it

1 February 2010

The big news in the proposed US budget is that NASA's allocation for 2011 eliminates the funds for manned lunar missions

NASA did have a grand plan to return to the moon, built on President George W. Bush's (rather foolish) vision of an ambitious new chapter in space exploration.

The Democrat budget numbers show that the Obama administration effectively plans to kill the Constellation program that called for a return to the moon by 2020. The budget, expected to increase slightly over the current $18.7 billion, is also a death knell for the Ares 1 rocket, NASA's planned successor to the space shuttle. The agency has spent billions developing the rocket, which is still years from its first scheduled crew flight.

Quite simply the USA cannot afford it. They have two unwanted wars to finance and the impact of Republican tax cuts to manage. 

Obama's budget will instead call for spending $6 billion over five years to develop a commercial spacecraft that could taxi astronauts into low Earth orbit. Going commercial with a human crew would represent a dramatic change in the way NASA does business. Instead of NASA owning the spacecraft and overseeing every nut and bolt of its design and construction, a private company would design and build the spacecraft with NASA looking over its shoulder.

Essentially the Obama administration has decided that the USA is not going to be a significant player in human space flight for the foreseeable future. Which means if we want to see a man on the moon the next one is almost certain to be Chinese.

This is all bad news for Florida where 7,000 jobs will be lost when the space shuttle is retired next year.

Air Asia X pulls out of Abu Dhabi

1 February 2010

AirAsia X is to pull out of Abu Dhabi after just three months in operation, a setback for the fledgling carrier’s long-haul, low-cost business plan in the region.

The surprise withdrawal is effective on February 21. Strangely this was also the week that Emirates launched a third daily flight to Kuala Lumpur.

The Malaysia-based carrier, which launched its Kuala Lumpur to Abu Dhabi service with great fanfare on November 23, said it hoped to resume services as quickly as possible once it employed a more economical aircraft for the route. It flies a four-engine Airbus A340, but hopes to restart the route using an Airbus A330, which has fewer seats and is more fuel-efficient, with just two engines.

Once again it is clear that the long-haul, low-cost concept, is fragile. Witness last year's collapse of OASIS in Hong Kong. But Abu Dhabi was also an unlikely destination for Air Asia X as both Abu Dhabi and Dubai both thrive as transit airports for their local airline; Abu Dhabi in particular would not see much point to point traffic from Malaysia.

Reducing seat costs by cramming passengers into an aeroplane and offering minimal service is a tough business. That is precisely why the likes of Southwest Airlines and Ryanair have never ventured to go long haul – the concept does not work as well on longer routes.

The five most popular destinations from the Abu Dhabi in 2009 were London Heathrow, Bangkok, Doha, Manama and Cairo.

Dubai World Silence on Debt Standstill Evaporates Bailout Rally

1 February 2010 - Bloomberg

"Dubai’s failure to reassure investors its restructuring plan will succeed is causing the emirate’s benchmark stock index to drop the most in the world and forcing companies to scrap bond sales.

The Dubai Financial Market General Index lost 15 percent since Dec. 14, wiping out a rally sparked by Abu Dhabi’s bailout of Dubai World that day. Bonds of the state-owned company’s property developer Nakheel PJSC sank to 55.75 cents on the dollar from 67.5 cents, while credit default swaps on Dubai government debt trade at 493 basis points, the highest level since Abu Dhabi’s fund injection.

Dubai World, in talks to reschedule $22 billion of debt, failed to present an offer in a meeting with lenders in December and declined to say when a deal may be struck. Dubai Electricity & Water Authority said Jan. 17 it delayed a $1.5 billion bond sale as borrowing costs were too high.

Lack of clarity on Dubai World’s restructuring plan “is creating uncertainty that is weighing heavily on the market,” said Rami Sidani, the Dubai-based head of Middle East and North Africa investment at Schroder Investment Management Ltd., which oversees about $230 billion worldwide. “We’re not out of the woods yet and we know Dubai will continue to struggle with a debt burden.”

Dubai stocks and bonds tumbled in November after the government said Dubai World would seek to delay payments to creditors until at least May 30. Investors speculated that Nakheel, which is building palm tree-shaped islands off the emirate’s coast, would default after Dubai companies lost access to cheap financing because of the global credit crunch and a 50 percent slump in Dubai home prices.

Abu Dhabi’s $10 billion bailout on Dec. 14 ensured that Nakheel would have the $4.1 billion it needed to repay an Islamic bond due that day. Dubai is the second-biggest of seven states that make up the United Arab Emirates, whose capital Abu Dhabi holds 8 percent of global oil reserves. Dubai and its state-owned companies borrowed at least $80 billion until 2008 to transform the emirate into a tourism and financial hub.

The Dubai stock index jumped 10 percent and bond prices soared on the day Abu Dhabi provided the funds. Dubai credit default swaps, which measure the cost of protecting against the default of government debt, sank to 430 basis points from 540.

The Dubai stock index has since posted the biggest decline among benchmark equity gauges in the world’s 70 largest markets. While global stocks have retreated on concern China will take steps to curb economic growth, the Dubai measure’s 15 percent loss compares with a 4 percent decline in the MSCI AC World Index.

Nakheel’s $750 million of 2.75 percent bonds due 2011 lost 17 percent during the period, according to Citigroup Inc. prices on Bloomberg, while credit default swaps jumped 63 basis points. A basis point on a credit-default swap contract to protect against the default of $10 million of debt for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

“The Dubai World restructuring is going to be a long and tedious process,” said Shehab Gargash, a managing director at Dubai-based Daman Investments who’s holding half of his $1.5 billion under management in cash. “That’s the main reason we decided to stay out” of Dubai’s “bear market rally,” he said.

Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius says the Abu Dhabi bailout ensured the worst of the emirate’s debt crisis is over. The manager of $34 billion in emerging market assets said in an interview there’s “value and opportunity” in Dubai markets and that Templeton bought shares during the selloff in November and early December.

“There has to be more revelations about what is being done and how, but the panic is over,” Mobius, the chairman of Templeton Asset Management, said in the Jan. 28 interview in Melbourne. “We are trying to buy at a good price given the fact that transparency isn’t complete.”

The Dubai stock index trades for 5.1 times analysts’ 2010 earnings estimates, the cheapest level worldwide after Nigeria’s All Share Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While investors speculate on the recovery values of Dubai debt, the lifeline from Abu Dhabi is helping the state-owned companies meet their interest payments. Nakheel paid a $10.3 million coupon last month on its 2011 bond. Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group LLC, the investment company owned by Dubai’s ruler, made about $100 million of scheduled payments last month on three bonds.

Dubai-based firms have to refinance $7.3 billion in syndicated loans and $2.8 billion in maturing bonds this year, according to Deutsche Bank AG estimates. Some of the biggest debt maturities include a $1.25 billion loan due in June by Dubai International Capital LLC, an investment company owned by Dubai’s ruler, and $1.5 billion in two floating-rate dollar notes issued by Emirates NBD PJSC.

Emirates Telecommunications Corp., the U.A.E.’s biggest phone company, has deferred plans to issue the equivalent of $490 million bonds as it has enough cash for expansion plans, Ahmed bin Ali, a spokesman for the company, said Jan. 28.

The Dubai government’s $1.93 billion Islamic bond issued in October was the last sale of bonds from the emirate. Drake & Scull International PJSC, a Dubai-based construction-engineering contractor that raised about 1.2 billion dirhams ($327 million) from its initial public offering in 2008, was the last stock sale from a Dubai- based company, according to Bloomberg data.

“It makes very little sense for a Dubai corporate issuer to go out now and just try to force the issue in the market,” said Abdul Kadir Hussain, chief executive officer of fund manager Mashreq Capital DIFC Ltd. “Right now the market is waiting for a strategy. How are we going to reduce the absolute debt level in Dubai and how quickly is this going to happen. Investors are taking a very conservative attitude toward the U.A.E.”"
 

Dubai's Business Bay

1 February 2010

A picture from January 2010 with Business Bay in the centre and the Burj Khalifa to the right.