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Good causes:
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In
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Back in the UK:
Newton Ferrers
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Relaunching Open Skies
28 February 2011
At last an airline magazine that you should want to take home
with you. Emirates has relaunched its monthly Open Skies magazine and the
relaunch is commendable.
The magazine is also likely to get better as the publishers
gather feedback on this first edition.
There are some teething issues.
Burying the contents page on the 19th page is a problem. Too
much advertising on the first 18 pages.
The Twitter Pitch for cafes in a city is a good idea - but
there must be more than 3 cafes in New York.
At article on shopping for "Booty" in Bangkok is already out
of date - of the seven items two are from Suan Lum which is already closed
down - and two from the airport duty free and no one should ever pay
KingPower prices !
I enjoyed Pico Iyer's artcle and the travel literature
section should be a monthly feature.....
Hanoi photo shoot - great - love the photo feature. More
please !
And sorry - the route maps are different and I dont like
them. I miss thinking about all the other places to fly to not yet on the
network!
But overall it is a great makeover - some real thought has
produced a genuinely interesting, quality airline magazine.
Qatar starts Montreal at end of June
27 February 2011
Qatar Airways will open
services between Doha and Montreal on 29 June, serving the
city three times per week. The airline's debut
comes at a time of tension between the Canadian Government and Qatar
Airways' Gulf rival Emirates, which has been battling for greater access to
Canadian routes.
Canadian nationals arriving in Qatar may enter the country without prior
visa arrangements. Passengers with Qatar as their end destination may enter
by obtaining a visa on arrival, a service extended to 33 countries, with
Canada being one of them.
The Boeing 777-200LR used on the Montreal route has a two-class operation,
offering 42 seats in Business in a spacious 2–2–2 cabin layout, with a seat
pitch of 78 inches.
In Economy, the Boeing 777 offers 217 seats in a 3–3–3 configuration with a
pitch of up to 34-inch, which is among the most generous of any
international airline flying wide-body aircraft on long-haul routes.
Emirates by comparison has a 3-4-3 economy configuration.
"Montreal is one of the most sought after destinations in the world and we
hope to have paved the way for expanded capacity into Canada and operate to
additional cities in the future," says Qatar Airways chief Akbar Al Baker.
The new rights, granted last year after a series of bilateral talks, is a
thorny reminder to Emirates of its own 12-year effort to persuade Canadian
authorities, via intergovernmental talks, to allow additional flights from
the United Arab Emirates.
Emirates and Etihad both operate only to Toronto, sharing six flights a week
and using the entire permitted allocation of flights per week from the UAE
to Canada. Emirates has pressed for a "modest" increase, indicating that it
would like to increase frequency to Toronto and open flights to Vancouver
and Calgary.
Dubai-based Emirates insists that it poses no threat to Air Canada and that
any suggestions Star Alliance - with which Emirates has engaged in a
long-running public spat - would be badly hit by its plans "lack
credibility".
China's heavy handed controls
27 February 2010
Massive drought in Northern China, an awful harvest, global
food prices spiking, widespread revolution in the Middle East. Calls for a
Jasmine Revolution in China. Memories of 1989.The PRC leadership is not
comfortable.
And their solution. Large numbers of police - and new tactics
like shrill whistles and street cleaning trucks to squelch overt protests in
China for a second Sunday in a row after more calls for peaceful gatherings
modeled on recent democratic movements in the Middle East.
Near Shanghai's People's Square, uniformed police blew whistles nonstop and
shouted at people to keep moving, though about 200 people - a combination of
onlookers and quiet sympathizers who formed a larger crowd than a week ago -
braved the shrill noise. In Beijing, trucks normally used to water the
streets drove repeatedly up the busy commercial shopping district spraying
water and keeping crowds pressed to the edges.
Foreign journalists met with tighter police controls. In Shanghai,
authorities called foreign reporters Sunday indirectly warning them to stay
away from the protest sites, while police in Beijing followed some reporters
and blocked those with cameras from entering the Wangfujing shopping street
where protests were called. Plainclothes police struck a Bloomberg News
television reporter, who was then taken away for questioning.
Police also detained several Chinese, at least two in Beijing and four in
Shanghai, putting them into vans and driving them away, though it was not
clear if they had tried to protest.
While it isn't clear how many people - if any at all - came to protest, the
outsized response compared with last week shows how the mysterious calls for
protest have left the authoritarian government on edge.
Unlike Egypt and Tunisia where popular frustrations with
economic malaise added fuel to popular protests to oust autocratic leaders,
China has a booming economy and rising living standards. But there is
clearly concern that democratic movements could take root if unchallenged.
One thing is for certain. China has a massive, well equipped,
security apparatus. After blocking entrance to Wangfujing, police took away
foreign news photographers, camera crews and reporters from The Associated
Press, the BBC, Voice of America, German state broadcasters ARD and ZDF, and
others. They were taken to an office where they were told special permission
was needed to report from Wangfujing.
In doing so, the government appears to be extending a ban on
reporting at Tiananmen Square and reinterpreting more relaxed rules put in
place ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
This is not over. People will find a way to make their voices
by heard.
DSI changes its story - no one believes it
27 February 2011 -
"Thailand's Department of Special Investigation (DSI) has
concluded that Reuters cameraman Hiro Muramoto, who was killed during
political protests last year, was not shot by security forces, the head of
the DSI said on Sunday.
That conclusion contradicts a preliminary finding in a DSI report leaked to
Reuters in December, which indicated the bullet that killed the Japanese
journalist on April 10 came from the direction of troops.
DSI Director-General Tharit Pengdith said the bullet came from an AK-47,
which did not match the weapon used by soldiers in the street in Bangkok
that day.
"Now we know for sure the bullet that killed him was a Russian-made AK-47,
which we do not have for military use," Tharit told Reuters, adding there
would be a news conference on Monday to outline the findings.
Muramoto, 43, was based in Tokyo and had come to Bangkok to help cover
anti-government "red shirt" protests that lasted from March to mid-May last
year. He was among 91 civilians and members of the security forces killed
during the unrest.
Army spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd was not immediately available for
comment.
He was quoted in Sunday's Bangkok Post as saying soldiers did not use AK-47
rifles on the day in question.
However, the Bangkok post also reported "claims that the army chief of staff
paid the DSI head a visit to complain about an initial department finding"
that blamed soldiers for the journalist's death. The DSI's initial findings
which were leaked to Reuters
found that soldiers should in fact be blamed for Muramoto's
death during the rally at Khok Wua intersection on April 10 last year.
"The DSI is likely to face questions about why it changed its
stance," said the Post.
The Post says that Tharit has denied meeting the army chief
of staff.
The army has backed the DSI report, saying troops deployed to
disperse the red shirt rally that day were not armed with AK- 47 rifles,
only with US-made M16 and Israel-made Tavor rifles.
"The soldiers did not use AK-47 rifles that day," said spokesman Col Sansern
Kaewkamnerd. Sanserd remember was the spokesman for the CRES; and has
throughout the last year been creative in many of his press briefings.
Tharit has declined to comment on the change from the original report other
than to say the earlier report did not say categorically that the army was
to blame for the cameraman's death.
An army source told the Bangkok Post that the army had imported about 20,000
AK-47 rifles into the country two decades ago. About 19,000 of them had been
distributed for use at military camps nationwide, while the rest were kept
at the army's weapon storage site.
Meanwhile, about 4,000-5,000 red shirt supporters are expected to gather at
Wat Pathum Wanaram today to make merit for those killed during the protests
between March 12 and May 19 last year.
Why has it taken 10 months to come to this convenient
conclusion. An autopsy after Hiro's death would have told the type of bullet
that killed him. If the Army had no AK47s this could have been confirmed
immediately.
A nation mourns
25 February 2011
Forget the red and yellow shirts for a day - the biggest news
out of Thailand is that Paradorn and his wife Natalie have parted ways.
He ruled the tennis court, and she reigned over beauty queens. Yet, even for
a perfect match, it's "game over".
Last night, Chanachai Srichaphan, father of the former tennis star Paradorn,
said that his son and wife Natalie Glebova - former Miss Universe - were
still living together, but "not as husband and wife". The couple got married
in September 2007.
Chanachai shrugged off all speculation about the reasons, saying it was a
private matter and that they had made the decision as grown-ups.
It is still not confirmed if the star couple have already signed divorce
papers. However, another source from Paradorn's family insisted that there
was no bitterness, and that the marriage had ended due to "different
lifestyles".
"They are still good friends," said the source, who admitted to having given
advice to Paradorn over the past three or four months. Still, the source
insisted that the couple had agreed to separate without it having any legal
ramifications on their assets. The source also denied that "flirtations"
were behind the break-up, though people in the motor-racing circuit think
otherwise.
When Paradorn's career was interrupted by a wrist injury in 2007, he turned
his attention to motorbike racing and was often spotted in the company of
different girls, many of them university students.
Amazing Thailand. Paradorn has a gik or more; and thinks that
his wife should be OK with that. But surprise! She is not Thai and better a
divorce than she cuts off his (tennis) balls.
My Thai wife thinks it is all Natalie's fault. She only
married him for the fame she says. But who is more famous; a Miss Universe
or a has been tennis player.
Aerotropolis: -The Way We'll Live Next
25 February 2011
By John D. Kasarda and Greg Lindsay - and reviewed by Business Week
If only Ryan Bingham had read Aerotropolis. Perhaps then the corporate
hatchet man, portrayed by George Clooney in Up in the Air, would understand
the global forces keeping his lost soul aloft—and relocate to a fledgling
city in Asia. A collaboration between John D. Kasarda, a professor at the
Kenan-Flagler Business School of the University of North Carolina, and Greg
Lindsay, a journalist who has written for publications including this one,
the business-cum-sociology tome describes how the airborne movement is
reshaping business and urban life from Chicago to Shenzhen and almost
certainly redefining our future.
Although he receives credit as lead author, Kasarda darts in and out of the
book as a central character, portrayed in the third-person. Occasionally
awkward narration is just a small flaw, however, in an otherwise fascinating
and important work. An evangelist of sorts, Kasarda travels the world
preaching to companies, cities, and countries that they must embrace the new
rules of commerce or risk getting left behind. These rules center around the
"aerotropolis"—some combination of an enormous airport, planned city,
shipping hub, and futuristic office park. The Dallas/Fort Worth
International Airport, designed in the 1970s, became a proto-aerotropolis
and generated economic growth in that sprawling metroplex, the authors say.
Among the burgeoning aerotropoli are Dubai and South Korea's New Songdo
City—proposed finish date, 2015—which will serve as an offshoot of Inchon
International Airport, a ginormous facility opened in 2001. Companies are
already moving offices and employees to New Songdo's prefab precincts, only
a two-hour flight from Shanghai and Beijing.
The 20th century Jet Age, the authors argue, was channeled by airports
constructed on the peripheries of cities. The 21st century Instant Age—with
its ubiquitous travel, 24/7 work schedules, and global supply chains—will
require a reconfiguration. Cities, they write, will need to be arrayed
around airports in concentric circles of business and residential zones, as
they are in New Songdo and Hyderabad, India. They believe the economic and
technological forces driving this transformation are too powerful to resist.
Smart Western executives and urban planners need to get with the program,
they warn, since South Korea—not to mention China and India—are already on
board.
Aerotropolis follows in the tradition of works such as Edge City (1992) that
blend jargon-free scholarship with shoe-leather reporting to tell readers
why they're living and working as they are. In Edge City, Joel Garreau
traced how transportation has molded urban life (CliffNotes version: Donkeys
defined hilly Jerusalem; sailing ships made Lisbon; railroads powered
Chicago; and mass-produced automobiles begat metropolitan Los Angeles).
Garreau also charted how asphalt, airplanes, and networked computers
combined, in the 1980s, to produce exurban population centers in places such
as northern Virginia. In essence, Kasarda and Lindsay pick up the story from
there, pointing out that Reston, Va., and other Dulles Airport feeder-cities
can be seen as immediate precursors—or even early iterations—of a
full-fledged aerotropolis.
That Kasarda and Lindsay are onto something big seems beyond dispute. Yet
the best material in Aerotropolis is the often-poignant case studies of
established cities too sclerotic to adopt the Kasarda Doctrine. Progressive
thinkers in Chicago, Detroit, New York, and London know it would be better
if they could knock down congested airports, build new ones with better
runways, and connect close-in businesses and commuters via high-speed rail
lines. Yet inertial politics, incumbent commercial interests, tight budgets,
and not-in-my-backyard activists impede change. The authors suggest darkly
that failure to evolve spells doom for older cities. Still, New York and its
aging brethren—other than Detroit, which has its own special
problems—somehow seem to have life left in their overburdened boulevards and
even their delay-ridden airport lounges.
The authors are vague about whether the airport city of the future is an
upgrade or a fresh circle of hell. Exactly who wants to live in a tract home
on a former wetland near Seoul's monster airport? Just what precisely life
is—or will be—like in New Songdo doesn't become entirely clear in
Aerotropolis, but the hints aren't encouraging. The authors enthuse about
how New Songdo and its "clones" in China will be assembled by a consortium
that includes Cisco (CSCO), 3M (MMM), and United Technologies (UTX). "We're
trying to replicate cities," Cisco's chief globalization officer, Wim
Elfrink, tells them. "We have no standards. Every city is a new project."
Whatever that means, many may feel reluctant to move to the aerotropolis
Cisco is helping build on the outskirts of Chongqing in western China—even
if there is a billboard in the arrival hall that says, in several languages,
"If you lived here, you'd be home by now."
Revolts expose tawdry
policies of west
25 February 2011 -
The Financial Times
The chain of uprisings across the Arab world plainly caught the US and
Europe, as well as allied Arab rulers, on the hop. Comfortably aligned with
dictators who ostensibly guaranteed them stability and cheap oil, western
leaders dispensed liberal nostrums while checking in their democratic
principles at the palace gate or the tent flap.
Their response to Arab revolution is evolving. From the first shocked
vacillations between wobble and waffle, western rhetoric has become more
assured. Yet the west’s performance still looks inadequate, especially in
the face of the increasingly unhinged Muammer Gaddafi.
The Arab crisis has exposed mercilessly the cosiness of links between
western and, above all, European leaders and their regional counterparts.
The fawning greed with which Britain, France and Italy have sought oil and
business opportunities from Colonel Gaddafi’s murderous regime now looks
particularly tawdry. Is that only with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight?
Not entirely. The UK, in particular, rushed with indecent haste to the
Brother Leader’s tent. Tony Blair’s “deal in the desert”, sold at the time
as turning the colonel away from terrorist adventurism and bringing him back
into polite geopolitical society, paved the way for a lucrative contract for
BP.
Famously, the US and the UK presented Col Gaddafi’s decision to give up his
weapons of mass destruction in 2003 as a result of their decision to invade
Iraq, where they found no WMD, in spite of the drumbeat of alarmist
propaganda and dodgy intelligence that led up to the war. Yet that deal had
been years in the making.
Britain started talks with Libya, initially about the Lockerbie bombing, six
years earlier. These came to fruition in 2003 when Libya’s nuclear programme
was still not much more than a Meccano set. In 2003, moreover, after Col
Gaddafi forswore terrorism, Libyan agents were implicated in a plot to kill
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.
It is more than just Libya. Beyond the lust for oil and lazy equation of
autocracy with stability, western leaders have had a blind spot about Arab
countries. Europeans have struggled to come up with convincing policies
towards what is their backyard.
The 43-state Union of the Mediterranean, a pet project of President Nicolas
Sarkozy, is a case in point, an almost meaning-free piece of European Union
architecture, a cathedral built on a pinhead. Designed to spread EU
prosperity to the southern shores of the Arab Mediterranean, the union looks
suspiciously like a halfway house, a sort of parking lot for Turkey, to
whose EU membership Mr Sarkozy (and German Chancellor Angela Merkel) is
strongly opposed.
Since its Paris launch in July 2008, the union has not met at summit level.
Now Mr Sarkozy has lost his co-president of this august body: Egypt’s fallen
dictator, Hosni Mubarak. The European-dominated Socialist International,
another grouping of uncertain purpose, has also seen its ranks depleted: the
collapsed ruling parties of Mr Mubarak and his fellow ex-despot Zein al-Abidine
Ben Ali of Tunisia, neither distinguished by their passion for social
justice, were both members.
European leaders can embrace tyrants yet look askance at Turkey, where the
so-far successful marriage of Islam and democracy has mesmerised the most
dynamic currents of Arab opinion, the very people who have unleashed
revolution.
“Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco – this is part of the known world for the French
political class. Turkey is not part of their known world,” observes a French
diplomat tersely.
But Europe and the west are part of the known world of the Arab
revolutionaries and their allies. And Arab television stations are
channelling their increasingly loud pleas for western help against the
murderous finale of Col Gaddafi’s
42-year rule. Panels of commentators at the same time remark caustically on
western irrelevance and impotence.
But whether in desperation or in anger, Col Gaddafi’s opponents hope that
the western powers will at least impose a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent
the regime bombarding them with its warplanes and importing more mercenaries
to fight them. Not just the fate of a tyrant but the reputation of Europe
and America is at stake in Libya and the Middle East.
Al Maktoum to get some general aviation
24 February 2011
The Gulf news says in today's headline that Al Maktoum
International is now fully operational. That must be why if gets a handful
of flights each day.
The reality is that Al Maktoum International Airport has now
opened for general aviation operations in addition to its cargo flights. The
General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) granted this approval following a
review of safety, security and standard operational procedures at the Jebel
Ali airport.
One day, many years from now, Dubai World Central (DWC) might be the world's
largest urban development project. The project includes Al Maktoum
International Airport, a logistics city, an aviation services city and
numerous residential and commercial projects.
Al Futtaim Services Company, in a joint venture with European jet operator
DC Aviation, will provide a range of general aviation services at the
airport including business jet charters, aircraft maintenance and aircraft
management.
Al Futtaim, the first client at Aviation City, operates a fleet of aircraft
including Airbus A319 Corporate Jets and Bombardier Global Express.
Forget the daft Gulf News headline - the move of general aviation to
Jebel Ali is a necessity. Business jets movement accounted for about 22,500
movements out of Dubai International Airport in 2010.
Phase 1 (maybe no more?) of the Jebel Ali airport will
operate one A380 capable runway, 64 remote stands, one cargo terminal with
an annual capacity of 250,000 tonnes of cargo and a passenger terminal
building designed to accommodate five million passengers per year as part of
Phase 1.
Thank goodness for the Gulf News
24 February 2011
What would we do without the Gulf News - Independent,
incisive, thorough, critical, investigative? Their editorial is a hoot!
"Handle new media with care - Gulf News Editorial:
Websites can complement and enhance the flow of news if the
law keeps pace with them
There is no doubt new media such as online news forums is a credible threat
to the long reign of traditional media like newspapers and broadcasting.
Also, new media is increasingly gaining importance due to its role in the
popular uprisings in the Arab world, dubbed the ‘Facebook and Twitter
revolutions'.
However, experts question the authority of the new media because of the
massive quantity of unsubstantiated information floating in cyberspace.
Rumours and photoshopped images are sometimes taken seriously.
But, according to the Gulf News annual State of the Press report released on
Tuesday, some local news websites such as Al Rams take their job seriously
and offer professional news service. In the UAE the threat might not be as
serious as in many other countries. But with the flexibility of the law,
those websites can grow to complement and enhance the flow of information
and news — an important aspect of modern societies."
Assange to be extradited
24 February 2011
I think this is correct. Julian Assange is accused of a
serious crime in Sweden. He needs to defend those charges in Sweden. His
role at Wikileaks and in the publishing of the US diplomatic cables is
irrelevant to the extradition case.
Julian Assange is to be extradited to Sweden to face
allegations of rape and sexual assault. If his appeal is unsuccessful he
will be extradited to Sweden in 10 days.
Assange has been fighting extradition since he was arrested and bailed in
December. He has consistently denied the allegations, made by two women in
August last year. But he needs to fight those allegations in court.
Assange fears that an extradition to Sweden would make it easier for
Washington to extradite him to the US on possible charges relating to the
release by WikiLeaks of leaked US embassy cables.
If this was to happen, Sweden would have to ask permission from the UK for
the onward extradition. No such charges have been laid, though the website's
activities are under investigation in the US.
The most serious of the four allegations relates to an accusation that
Assange, during a visit to Stockholm in August, had sex with a woman, Miss
B, while she was sleeping and without a condom, and without her consent.
Three counts of sexual assault are also alleged against another woman, Miss
A. If found guilty of the rape charge he could face up to four years in
prison.
Libya fall out will be a crisis
23 February 2011
With Libya in turmoil the fallout could be an economic and
humanitarian crisis. This starts of course with estimates of 1,000 Libyans
already dead from givernment action against the protests.
On economics: Libya’s oil output has plunged by at least a fifth as foreign
companies have shut down production.
Oil prices have surged to US$110 a barrel - its highest level
in nearly three years - and boosting output from Saudi will not replace the
Libyan production.
High oil prices further weaken the US dollar.
Oil prices climbing at the same time as the world faces
inflation threats and rapidly rising fuel prices raises the spectre of
double dip recession.
On the humanitarian side 70% of working Libyans work for and
are paid by government controlled organisations. There is already an outflow
of people from Libya to other countries in North Africa and across the
Mediterranean; why have so many European countries propped up Gaddafi. Out
of fear of a massive refugee crisis.
Cities to live in
23 February 2011
The Economist Intelligence Unit produced its annual list
of the world's most liveable cities; and for the the fifth straight year
Vancouver was placed first, while Melbourne claimed second place from
Vienna. Australian and Canadian cities dominated the list's top 10 spots.
In the annual survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Canadian west
coast city and 2010 Winter Olympics host scored 98 percent on a combination
of stability, health care, culture and environment, education, and
infrastructure - a score unchanged from last year.
The EIU clearly does not measure the weather!
Although Melbourne pipped the Austrian capital for silver medal, there was
no other major change near the top of the list of 140 cities worldwide.
Auckland, New Zealand, came in 10th.
"Mid-sized cities in developed countries with relatively low population
densities tend to score well by having all the cultural and infrastructural
benefits on offer with fewer problems related to crime or congestion," said
Jon Copestake, editor of the report, in a statement.
Pittsburgh was the top US city with 29th place - just ahead of Honolulu -
while Los Angeles moved up three places to 44th and New York held onto the
56th spot.
London moved up one place to 53rd while Paris came in at number 16.
The top Asian city was Osaka at number 12, tying Geneva, Switzerland and
beating out the Japanese capital of Tokyo, which came in at 18.
Hong Kong came in at 31 but Beijing, capital of the world's most populous
nation and No. 2 economy, straggled in at 72. Pollution !
There was also little change at the bottom, with Harare, the capital of
Zimbabwe, once again claiming the worst position with a rating of 37.5
percent, narrowing beating out the Bangladesh capital of Dhaka.
The Economist Intelligence Unit survey ranks cities based on 30 factors such
as healthcare, culture and environment, and education and personal safety.
If Not Now, When?
23 February 2011 Thomas L. Friedman,
New York Times
What’s unfolding in the Arab world today is the mother of all wake-up calls.
And what the voice on the other end of the line is telling us is clear as a
bell:
"America, you have built your house at the foot of a volcano. That volcano
is now spewing lava from different cracks and is rumbling like it’s going to
blow. Move your house!” In this case, “move your house” means “end your
addiction to oil.”
No one is rooting harder for the democracy movements in the Arab world to
succeed than I am. But even if things go well, this will be a long and rocky
road. The smart thing for us to do right now is to impose a $1-a-gallon
gasoline tax, to be phased in at 5 cents a month beginning in 2012, with all
the money going to pay down the deficit. Legislating a higher energy price
today that takes effect in the future, notes the Princeton economist Alan
Blinder, would trigger a shift in buying and investment well before the tax
kicks in. With one little gasoline tax, we can make ourselves more
economically and strategically secure, help sell more Chevy Volts and free
ourselves to openly push for democratic values in the Middle East without
worrying anymore that it will harm our oil interests. Yes, it will mean
higher gas prices, but prices are going up anyway, folks. Let’s capture some
it for ourselves.
It is about time. For the last 50 years, America (and Europe and Asia) have
treated the Middle East as if it were just a collection of big gas stations:
Saudi station, Iran station, Kuwait station, Bahrain station, Egypt station,
Libya station, Iraq station, United Arab Emirates station, etc. Our message
to the region has been very consistent: “Guys (it was only guys we spoke
with), here’s the deal. Keep your pumps open, your oil prices low, don’t
bother the Israelis too much and, as far as we’re concerned, you can do
whatever you want out back. You can deprive your people of whatever civil
rights you like. You can engage in however much corruption you like. You can
preach whatever intolerance from your mosques that you like. You can print
whatever conspiracy theories about us in your newspapers that you like. You
can keep your women as illiterate as you like. You can create whatever vast
welfare-state economies, without any innovative capacity, that you like. You
can undereducate your youth as much as you like. Just keep your pumps open,
your oil prices low, don’t hassle the Jews too much — and you can do
whatever you want out back.”
It was that attitude that enabled the Arab world to be insulated from
history for the last 50 years — to be ruled for decades by the same kings
and dictators. Well, history is back. The combination of rising food prices,
huge bulges of unemployed youth and social networks that are enabling those
youths to organize against their leaders is breaking down all the barriers
of fear that kept these kleptocracies in power.
But fasten your seat belts. This is not going to be a joy ride because the
lid is being blown off an entire region with frail institutions, scant civil
society and virtually no democratic traditions or culture of innovation. The
United Nations’ Arab Human Development Report 2002 warned us about all of
this, but the Arab League made sure that that report was ignored in the Arab
world and the West turned a blind eye. But that report — compiled by a group
of Arab intellectuals led by Nader Fergany, an Egyptian statistician — was
prophetic. It merits re-reading today to appreciate just how hard this
democratic transition will be.
The report stated that the Arab world is suffering from three huge deficits
— a deficit of education, a deficit of freedom and a deficit of women’s
empowerment. A summary of the report in Middle East Quarterly in the Fall of
2002 detailed the key evidence: the gross domestic product of the entire
Arab world combined was less than that of Spain. Per capita expenditure on
education in Arab countries dropped from 20 percent of that in
industrialized countries in 1980 to 10 percent in the mid-1990s. In terms of
the number of scientific papers per unit of population, the average output
of the Arab world per million inhabitants was roughly 2 percent of that of
an industrialized country.
When the report was compiled, the Arab world translated about 330 books
annually, one-fifth of the number that Greece did. Out of seven world
regions, the Arab countries had the lowest freedom score in the late 1990s
in the rankings of Freedom House. At the dawn of the 21st century, the Arab
world had more than 60 million illiterate adults, the majority of whom were
women. Yemen could be the first country in the world to run out of water
within 10 years.
This is the vaunted “stability” all these dictators provided — the stability
of societies frozen in time.
Seeing the Arab democracy movements in Egypt and elsewhere succeed in
modernizing their countries would be hugely beneficial to them and to the
world. We must do whatever we can to help. But no one should have any
illusions about how difficult and convulsive the Arabs’ return to history is
going to be. Let’s root for it, without being in the middle of it.
Berlusconi’s Arab Dancer
23 February 2011
The New York Times OpEd
It says something about the miserable European response to
the Arab spring that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s personal
contribution to North African affairs — his alleged liaison with a
then-17-year-old Moroccan dancer — only just takes the prize for most abject
performance.
His foreign minister, Franco Frattini, was not far behind with his response
to the brave uprising of the Tunisian people that ousted the longtime
dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali: “Priority number one is the deterrence of
Islamic fundamentalism and terrorist cells.”
All manner of worthy things may be wished for Arabs just across the
Mediterranean — and they were by President Nicolas Sarkozy’s fatuous
brainchild, the 43-member Union for the Mediterranean — but of course
democracy and freedom are not among them.
The Barcelona-based Union, which should be disbanded forthwith, preferred to
concentrate on matters like the “de-pollution of the Mediterranean.” That,
for Europeans, generally meant keeping Arabs away.
No wonder Orhan Pamuk, the Nobel-prize winning Turkish novelist, wrote an
essay late last year called “The Fading Dream of Europe.” He noted the
inward, small-minded, anti-immigrant turn of a European Continent that had
once represented the summit of his own and many Turks’ aspirations. And that
was penned before the latest European niggardliness.
In his own way the aging multibillionaire Berlusconi — with his too-black
hair and his fawning entourage and his control of the media and his private
villas and his debasement of the Italian state — has aped the manners of the
very Arab despots the peoples of Egypt and Tunisia and Libya and Bahrain
have risen to oust. Like them he has confused self and nation, entranced by
the cult of his personality.
Or, and it hardly matters which, these Arab dictators and their business
acolytes have aped Berlusconi, mimicking the worst of the West while
bringing nothing of its political openness, creating a valueless simulacrum
of moneyed European sophistication while their people languished without the
most basic rights the European Union upholds.
Designer labels without freedom of speech or the rule of law constitute a
virulent form of contemporary savagery.
Berlusconi epitomizes a long trans-Mediterranean connivance with Arab
subjugation — a marriage of convenience that condemned Arabs to be
supplicants (Moroccan dancers there to titillate). Men and women across
North Africa have taken to the streets to overturn this dignity-denying
status quo. They want to stand on their own two feet rather than forever
being cast as peoples in decline.
A judge, Cristina Di Censo, has now indicted Berlusconi, 74, on charges that
he paid for sex with a 17-year-old girl, Karima el-Mahroug, who has denied
having sex with him. People power, Italian-style, brought a half-million
protesters into the streets on Feb. 13.
I’d say this particular Italian soap has run long enough: A leader more
consumed with his virility and Arab women one quarter his age than with
governance does not serve Italy well.
Berlusconi’s is not the only European resignation in order. The French
foreign minister, Michèle Alliot-Marie, has piled gaffe on gaffe since the
Tunisian uprising began on Dec. 17.
It’s not enough that she offered the “know-how” of French security forces to
Ben Ali. It’s not enough that she accepted a ride on a private jet from a
Ben Ali business partner while on a Tunisian vacation during the protests.
It’s not enough that her parents signed a property deal with this Ben Ali
sidekick. It’s not enough that she was on the phone to Ben Ali although she
earlier denied she had any “privileged contact.”
Yes, Madame Minister, it is enough.
True, Prime Minister François Fillon was also accepting flights and lodging
from Hosni Mubarak at the time. But Egypt had not arisen then; and Fillon’s
record is distinguished, unlike Alliot-Marie’s comedy of errors since
becoming foreign minister.
The European Union must rethink its relations with the Muslim world at its
doorstep, beginning with accepting Turkey, whose membership would help usher
the Continent from the small-mindedness Pamuk describes. I’m not sure
booming Turkey’s still interested; keep someone at the door long enough and
that person will turn away. But a Union with Turkey in it would not have
responded to the Arab awakening with such tiptoeing awkwardness.
A new European pact with democratizing Arab neighbors is also urgently
needed. Cancel the funds for nice environmental projects and those Barcelona
bureaucrats’ salaries. Put European money behind forming decent democratic
societies across the water. This will be a generational project, but it’s
the only way to stop the desperate human tide into southern Spain and Italy.
The first major international challenge for post-Lisbon Europe has revealed
that the 2009 treaty did nothing to change the lowest-common-denominator
approach that makes the E.U. such a foreign-policy pygmy. I guess that must
be the way middling-power European nation states want it.
One shout-out is called for: to Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen
for being first to say: “Mubarak is history. Mubarak must step down.”
Contrast those declarative sentences with Brussels mumbo-jumbo. Danes, as
World War II showed, sometimes stand apart from the crowd and do right.
The US and Bahrain
22 February 2011
The Guardian
We are all concerned about the events in Libya of course, but
from an American geopolitical perspective, it's less pressing than the Egypt
situation was (and remains) for the simple reason that Libya was and is not
a US client state. So there's less urgency for America to declare itself.
And anyway there's no tension: obviously, the US isn't going to be propping
up Gaddafy. Although it is a bit mordantly amusing to think back to 2006 or
so when the neocons were telling us, now Gaddafy, there's a fellow who's
come to his senses, a man with whom we can do business.
The tougher nut for the US among the current flare ups is Bahrain. I'm no
expert, but I've been doing a bit of reading. When the regime (members of
the Sunni minority, who've ruled the island for 200 years) was shooting at
the mostly Shiite protesters in the capital of Manama, one can be sure that
small-d democrats across the region took note of US inaction. The US has had
a naval base there since 1947, and lots of oil is shipped through those
waters.
It now appears that the Obama administration's interventions had something
(how much, I'm not clear) to do with the regime's standing down on the
violence front. But after that, how far can and should the US go? The catch
here is the suspicion that the Shia majority, or some portion of it, has
ties to Iran. One Wikileaks cable showed that the king, Hamad bin isa
al-Khalifa, told David Petraeus that he thought (but could not prove) that
some opposition figures had been in Lebanon, training with Hezbollah.
Here is the 2010 Freedom House country report on Bahrain. The country's
freedom status was lowered from partly free to not free. Here is another
excellent rundown of the country's political "societies" (not parties,
because while parties were officially un-banned a few years ago, change
happens slowly).
There's an interesting piece in today's New York Times about Bahrain by
Michael Slackman, who reports that US officials are loathe to engage with
the Shia population. The "Todd" in the story below is Gwyneth Todd, a former
political adviser to the US Navy in Bahrain who was fired in 2007 for
"unauthorized contact with foreign nationals," "financial irresponsibility"
and "disclosure of classified information." But she has her defenders, too.
Anyway the story is this:
As an example of the policies that concerned Ms. Todd, she described one
case in which the Navy asked her to organize a gift drive for the children
of the poorest Shiite families. She called it a "Giving Tree."
"I went out with the chaplain and we committed to provide whatever each
child asked for," she said in an e-mail. "I received a list of about 400
requests, some for gadgets, many for bicycles and toys, and some for
bookcases, tables and desks. I committed to meet the requests on behalf of
the Navy."
But she said that she was ordered to cancel the promise by a commanding
officer who thought it would upset the leadership. "I could not bring myself
to do it," she said. "I worried about the implications for Shia attitudes
towards the Navy and feared it could lead to hatred and endanger our people.
So I spent over $30,000 of my own money to fund the whole thing myself, in
the name of the Navy. Big Brother was not happy, but the Shia never knew the
story."
Her account was confirmed by the present government adviser.
This is awfully complicated. And this is a small little country with about 1
million people, where there's basically little to no poverty (per capita
income $38,000). I think it goes to show that anyone sitting around hoping
that suddenly in a year's time we're going to have four or five new
democracies in the Middle East is kidding him/herself. If Egypt becomes
democratic, the impact could be profound. But this whole process is going to
take a while.
And that creates potential tension for the Obama administration, because
presidents tend to want dramatic good things to happen while they're in
office so they get the credit. It's like the old US political joke about no
governor ever funding a highway project scheduled to take 10 years because
he probably wouldn't be around to cut the ribbon. Here's hoping Obama and
Hillary are able to take the longer view.
Cruel. Vainglorious. Steeped in blood.
And now, surely, after more than four decades of terror and oppression,
on his way out?
22 February 2011 -
The Independent - Robert Fisk on Muammar Gaddafi, tyrant of Tripoli
So even the old, paranoid, crazed fox of Libya – the pallid, infantile,
droop-cheeked dictator from Sirte, owner of his own female praetorian guard,
author of the preposterous Green Book, who once announced he would ride to a
Non-Aligned Movement summit in Belgrade on his white charger – is going to
ground. Or gone. Last night, the man I first saw more than three decades
ago, solemnly saluting a phalanx of black-uniformed frogmen as they
flappered their way across the sulphur-hot tarmac of Green Square on a
torrid night in Tripoli during a seven-hour military parade, appeared to be
on the run at last, pursued – like the dictators of Tunis and Cairo – by his
own furious people.
The YouTube and Facebook pictures told the story with a grainy, fuzzed
reality, fantasy turned to fire and burning police stations in Benghazi and
Tripoli, to corpses and angry, armed men, of a woman with a pistol leaning
from a car door, of a crowd of students – were they readers of his
literature? – breaking down a concrete replica of his ghastly book. Gunfire
and flames and cellphone screams; quite an epitaph for a regime we all, from
time to time, supported.
And here, just to lock our minds on to the brain of truly eccentric desire,
is a true story. Only a few days ago, as Colonel Muammar Gaddafi faced the
wrath of his own people, he met with an old Arab acquaintance and spent 20
minutes out of four hours asking him if he knew of a good surgeon to lift
his face. This is – need I say it about this man? – a true story. The old
boy looked bad, sagging face, bloated, simply "magnoon" (mad), a comedy
actor who had turned to serious tragedy in his last days, desperate for the
last make-up lady, the final knock on the theatre door.
In the event, Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, faithful understudy for his father,
had to stand in for him on stage as Benghazi and Tripoli burned, threatening
"chaos and civil war" if Libyans did not come to heel. "Forget oil, forget
gas," this wealthy nincompoop announced. "There will be civil war."
Above the beloved son's head on state television, a green Mediterranean
appeared to ooze from his brain. Quite an obituary, when you come to think
of it, of nearly 42 years of Gaddafi rule.
Not exactly King Lear, who would "do such things – what they are, yet I know
not, but they shall be the terrors of the earth"; more like another dictator
in a different bunker, summoning up non-existent armies to save him in his
capital, ultimately blaming his own people for his calamity. But forget
Hitler. Gaddafi was in a class of his own, Mickey Mouse and Prophet, Batman
and Clark Gable and Anthony Quinn playing Omar Mukhtar in Lion of the
Desert, Nero and Mussolini (the 1920s version) and, inevitably – the
greatest actor of them all – Muammar Gaddafi. He wrote a book –
appropriately titled in his present unfortunate circumstances – called
Escape to Hell and Other Stories and demanded a one state solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict which would be called "Israeltine".
Shortly thereafter, he threw half the Palestinian residents of Libya out of
his country and told them to walk home to their lost land. He stormed out of
the Arab League because he deemed it irrelevant – a brief moment of sanity
there, one has to admit – and arrived in Cairo for a summit, deliberately
confusing a lavatory door with that of the conference chamber until led
aside by the Caliph Mubarak who had a thin, suffering smile on his face.
And if what we are witnessing is a true revolution in Libya, then we shall
soon be able – unless the Western embassy flunkies get there first for a
spot of serious, desperate looting – to rifle through the Tripoli files and
read the Libyan version of Lockerbie and the 1989 UTA Flight 722 plane
bombing; and of the Berlin disco bombings, for which a host of Arab
civilians and Gaddafi's own adopted daughter were killed in America's 1986
revenge raids; and of his IRA arms supplies and of his assassination of
opponents at home and abroad, and of the murder of a British policewoman,
and of his invasion of Chad and the deals with British oil magnates; and
(woe betide us all at this point) of the truth behind the grotesque
deportation of the soon-to-expire al-Megrahi, the supposed Lockerbie bomber
too ill to die, who may, even now, reveal some secrets which the Fox of
Libya – along with Gordon Brown and the Attorney General for Scotland, for
all are equal on the Gaddafi world stage – would rather we didn't know
about.
And who knows what the Green Book Archives – and please, O insurgents of
Libya, do NOT in thy righteous anger burn these priceless documents – will
tell us about Lord Blair's supine visit to this hideous old man; an addled
figure whose "statesmanlike" gesture (the words, of course, come from that
old Marxist fraud Jack Straw, when the author of Escape to Hell promised to
hand over the nuclear nick-nacks which his scientists had signally failed to
turn into a bomb) allowed our own faith-based Leader to claim that, had we
not smitten the Saddamites with our justified anger because of their own
non-existent weapons of mass destruction, Libya, too, would have joined the
Axis of Evil.
Alas, Lord Blair paid no heed to the Gaddafi "whoops" factor, a unique
ability to pose as a sane man while secretly believing oneself – like
miss-a-heart-beat Omar Suleiman in Cairo – to be a light bulb. Only days
after the Blair handshake, the Saudis accused Gaddafi of plotting – and the
details, by the way, were horribly convincing – to murder Britain's ally,
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. But why be surprised when the man most feared
and now most mocked and hated by his own vengeful people wrote, in the
aforesaid Escape to Hell that Christ's crucifixion was a historical
falsehood and that – as here I say again, a faint ghost of truth does very
occasionally adhere to Gaddafi's ravings – a German "Fourth Reich" was
lording it over Britain and America? Reflecting on death in this thespian
work, he asks if the Grim Reaper is male or female. The leader of the Great
Libyan Arab People's Popular Masses, needless to say, seemed to favour the
latter.
As with all Middle East stories, a historical narrative precedes the
dramatic pageant of Gaddafi's fall. For decades, his opponents tried to kill
him; they rose up as nationalists, as prisoners in his torture chambers, as
Islamists on the streets of – yes! – Benghazi. And he smote them all down.
Indeed, this venerable city had already achieved its martyrdom status in
1979 when Gaddafi publicly hanged dissident students in Benghazi's main
square. I am not even mentioning the 1993 disappearance of Libyan human
rights defender Mansour al-Kikhiya while attending a Cairo conference after
complaining about Gaddafi's execution of political prisoners. And it is
important to remember that, 42 years ago, our own Foreign Office welcomed
Gaddafi's coup against the effete and corrupt King Idriss because, said our
colonial mandarins, it was better to have a spick-and-span colonel in charge
of an oil state than a relic of imperialism. Indeed, they showed almost as
much enthusiasm as they did for this decaying despot when Lord Blair arrived
in Tripoli decades later for the laying on of hands.
As a Libyan opposition group told us years ago – we didn't care about these
folks then, of course – "Gaddafi would have us believe he is at the vanguard
of every human development that has emerged during his lifetime".
All true, if now reduced to sub-Shakespearean farce. My kingdom for a
facelift. At that non-aligned summit in Belgrade, Gaddafi even flew in a
planeload of camels to provide him with fresh milk. But he was not allowed
to ride his white charger. Tito saw to that. Now there was a real dictator.
Advantage UAE
22 February 2011
This may not be the right time to say this but there is one
country above all that will benefit from the unrest across the Middle East
and North Africa. And that dear reader is the UAE.
The unrest continues to spread to many countries. It is
inevitable. Only the timelines are in question. But the UAE will be one
country that will not see unrest and which could in fact benefit from the
regional unrest.
It is clear that revolution in the Arab world may prompt
investors to cut exposure in wealthy Gulf oil producers in the short term
allowing more stable countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar
may benefit from a shift in capital flows.
Weeks of spreading unrest have sent debt protection costs and yields on
government debt up across the Gulf, the world’s top oil exporting region,
while stocks and currencies – most of them pegged to the U.S. dollar – have
been volatile.
At the peak of Egypt’s political turmoil, Citi has estimated capital
outflows from the most populous Arab country at $500-million (U.S.) to
$1-billion a day.
On the other hand the unrest leads to rapidly increasing crude prices and
guess which nations benefit - the Gulf's oil producers.
Investor concerns will be focused on states that have seen
unrest, but some some will have put their plans for much of the region on
review.
Gulf Arab stocks have also been edgy, heading back towards January lows, as
popular unrest spread to Bahrain and Libya, while currency forward markets
have been on a roller-coaster ride.
Traders expected pressure on currencies to increase if bloody turmoil in
Libya continues. The planned passage of Iranian naval vessels through
Egypt’s Suez Canal appears to add to the regional uncertainty.
What is clear is that the premium for political risk has gone up throughout
the region. But investors do look to places like the UAE, where the
political system is broadly much more stable.
Tourist arrivals and spending are also key for the region.
Egypt's inbound tourism has collapsed. Travelers connecting through Bahrain
will not look to Qatar and the UAE. And it will be some time before
stability returns. Now this may be an issue for carriers such as Emirates
who rely on regional traffic through their Dubai hub but the likelihood is
that EK will benefit from travelers who choose Dubai over Bahrain, Egypt,
Tunis as a regional destination.
Libya on the edge
21 February 2011
Gaddafi has never been a rationale leader; he has ruled his
country through brutality and fear. He has intimidated the rest of the world
but bough favour through oil. Now his regime is toppling. But international
action is just words. I fear that Libyans need real assistance before more
are killed.
All internet and telecommunication is cut off in and out of
Libya. There is no international media working in the country. It is hard to
get reliable information on what is happening. But it sounds like a mixture
of mutiny and brutal oppression. The message in confused and dangerous.
There are defections, military and diplomatic from the
Qaddafi regime. His long rule does look like it is over. The question is
when and how much blood spilled.
As of late this evening these appear to be the likely facts:
Libyan fighter pilots left Libya for Malta after having been
ordered to bomb protesters - The defected pilots reportedly told Maltese
officials they were based in Tripoli and ordered to attack protesters on the
ground in Benghazi. After seeing their fellow pilots begin the airstrikes,
they diverted course toward Malta. This appears to confirm the use of
airstrikes against civilian protesters in cities around the country. Source
-
Times Of Malta
Similar reports of the Libyan navy firing on targets onshore
also are emerging, as well as reports that Gadhafi has given execution
orders to soldiers who have refused to fire on Libyan protesters.
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi may be heading to Venezuela, Foreign Secretary
William Hague has suggested, citing "information that suggests he is on his
way." The Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister denies Gaddafi has fled to
Venezuela -Libyan TV
Ibrahim Dabbashim Libya's Deputy Ambassador to the UN, tells
Al Jazeera English that if Gaddafi does not get out, "the people will kick
him out"- he adds that this is the end of the game; the whole of the regime
is crumbling; it will not be long before it is over.
Reuters reports the Libyan justice minister has resigned in support of the
protests. The Libyan ambassadors n China, India, Indonesia and Poland have
resigned - AJE/BBC
Nine people working at the Libyan embassy in London join
demonstrators protesting against Col Gaddafi outside - BBC
Witness on Al Jazeera Arabic says there are "cars full of
foreign fighters" roaming streets. BBC World News says that eyewitnesses
report that mercenaries are killing people in Tripoli.
The silence from Arab leaders is a huge concern. I can
understand Arab leaders' unwillingness to speak out against Ben Ali (in
Tunisia - the first one to fall) and against Mubarak (who was a regional
leader and ally to most Arab leaders)...but why not stand up to Gaddafi. Why
not get on the right side of history?
Note that Qatar's foreign ministry has now condemned the use
of airstrikes against civilians - and also criticises "the silence of the
international community over the bloody events in Libya".
Where are the UN, the EU and the USA. Is this time for direct
intervention to save the Libyan people from further killings? There are
calls from within Libya for direct intervention to stop the bloodshed.
Instead the best the EU will do is agree a statement
condemning the use of violence. Meanwhile people are dieing.
Thailand's airline start ups
21 February 2011
There are at least four new Thai airlines – three
regional airlines and one domestic – that expect to start operations during
the first quarter of 2011.
All of them have been awarded air operations licenses from the Department of
Aviation without having taken to the skies and without in most cases even
having taken delivery of an airplane.
The one all-domestic airline will operate out of Chiang Mai International
Airport. Kan Air is owned by Kannithi Aviation. It claims it will be ready
to start service from Chiang Mai to Pai and Chiang Rai using a 12-seat
Cessna turbo-prop 208 Grand Caravan. This looks like a repeat of Nok Mini
which previously flew these routes with the same airplane.
In its business plan it says it will consider other short hops in the North
from its Chiang Mai base to Nan, Mae Sarieng and Mae Hong Son.
Beyond its initial plans it talks of basing an aircraft in Phuket to offer
similar commuter services. Its website
www.kanairlines.com will be up and running soon.
Of the three regional airlines PC Air has created the most publicity by
hiring “third gender” cabin attendants. Ladyboys.
The other two start-up airlines are Crystal Thai Airline and Sunny Airway.
Both appear to have links either with Asian tour operators, or local travel
agencies and that should guarantee a minimum payload on flights.
PC Air is registered as a 100% Thai-owned airline with a capital of Bt200
million. Co-owners are Piyo Chantaraporn, a former THAI steward, fortune
teller and real estate business man and Chatwiwat Klamkomol a retired
government official.
Its charter operations will begin late March or April. The first of two
A310s, leased or purchased, is now undergoing a C-Check overhaul in
Singapore. It secured the two aircraft from Air Bagan with 228 seats each
(210 in economy and 18 in business).
The second aircraft will join the fleet in three months also to serve
charters. A third aircraft will be considered later when the airline
prepares to launch scheduled flights in the region. The website is
www.pcairline.com
Sunny Airways named Preecha Kongkate as its managing
director, previously linked to ThaiJet Intergroup, which flew charter
services. They were terminated in May 2004 after its Turkish Atlas aircraft
was withdrawn. Also, he was the founder of Focus Jewelry, Super Star Travel
and Kongkate Express.
According to its commercial manager, Chompoo Kongkate, Sunny Airways will
start charter operations to Japan and Germany using a B767-200ER to be
delivered next month. The airline will consider scheduled service only when
charters services are profitable and stable.
The website is www.sunnyair.net
Crystal Thai Airlines is a Thai-South Korean joint venture
between logistics business tycoon, Manika Sawasdipan and a Korean partner.
The airline like the other start-ups will offer just charter services, but
hopes to go into the competitive scheduled airline market later.
It will take delivery of its first 174-seat A320-200 this quarter and hopes
to have its second plane in the air by the last quarter. The airline said on
its website a service could operate during the first week of February, but
that has since been postponed.
Crystal Thai made the following announcement in pidgin
English on its website today (sic):
"We apologize to delay our first flight.
CTA Fleet is in Montpellier, Fracne and finished a demo flight sucessfully
on 31st of January 2011. However, It's occured technical snags and then CTA
Fleet is under the repair. CTA think safety is the first for customers so we
decided to postpone our first flight.
we expect our fleet will be in Thailand on 12 of March 2011 and our first
flight will be the end of March.
we hope our customer's understanding.
Thank you."
This is not the first Thai-Korean joint venture airline.
JetAsia Airways had been promising to start service from Phuket and Bangkok
to Seoul since Q3 of 2010. However, due to aircraft leasing problems it
remains grounded.
JetAsia Airways was registered, 29 December, 2009, with a capital of Bt240
million. The major shareholders are: Retired Air Chief Marshal, Paiboon
Chanhom named president; Micko Travel managing director, Athikom
Chanwerawong and a Chiang Mai businessman, Pichan Chantamanee.
At the end of December 2010, there were 53 companies all holding variations
of the DoA’s air transport business permits including authorisations to fly
helicopters, balloons and airships.
To register as an aviation company in Thailand requires a registered capital
of at least Bt200 million for scheduled airlines.
Most of the 18 non-scheduled airlines hold a license for scheduled and
non-scheduled services, too. The active ones in the current market are Siam
General Aviaition (Nok Mini), Bangkok Airways, Thai Airways international,
Thai AirAsia, Nok Air, Solar Aviation (Solar Air), Happy Air Traveller,
Orient Thai Airlines and Business Air Center (Business Air).
Other airlines who have announced their intentions to operate services are:
• Legacy Air: Still holds a valid license, but could lose it in March if it
fails to start operations within a year of registration.
• AVA Airline: Registered October 2010, accepts crew recruitment and says it
will operate with a B737NG
http://www.avaairlines.co.th/
• Quality Airway: Has a scheduled international service license and is said
to have two B767-300 and one Airbus A300. But I cannot find a website of
more details.
There is a long list of airlines in Thailand that either never flew or that
have had a very short life. Some of the above will join that list.
In Bahrain, the Bullets Fly
19 February 2011 By Nicholas Kristof New York Times
"A column of peaceful, unarmed pro-democracy protesters
marched through the streets here in modern, cosmopolitan Bahrain on Friday.
They threatened no one, but their 21st-century aspirations collided with a
medieval ruler — and the authorities opened fire without warning.
Michael Slackman and Sean Patrick Farrell of The New York Times were
recording video, and a helicopter began firing in their direction. It was
another example of Bahrain targeting journalists, as King Hamad bin Isa
al-Khalifa attempts to intimidate or keep out witnesses to his repression.
The main hospital here was already in chaos because a police attack nearby
was sending protesters rushing inside for refuge, along with tear gas fumes.
On top of that, casualties from the shootings suddenly began pouring in. A
few patients were screaming or sobbing, but most were unconscious or shocked
into silence that their government should shoot them.
A man was rushed in on a stretcher with a shattered skull and a bullet
lodged in his brain, bleeding profusely. A teenage girl lay writhing on a
stretcher; doctors later said she had suffered a heavy blow or kick to her
chest. A middle-age man was motionless on a stretcher. A young man had
bullet wounds to both legs. A young man trying to escape had been run over
by a car said to have government license plates.
Different doctors had different views (and perhaps not much expertise) about
whether the bullets were metal or rubber, but there seemed to be some of
each. Two X-rays that I saw both seemed to show metal bullets, according to
doctors familiar with reading X-rays, and a surgeon told me that the wound
he had treated had probably been caused by a metal bullet rather than a
rubber one.
Several large emergency wards quickly filled up completely. Patients with
lesser injuries or who had merely been overcome with tear gas lay outside.
It turns out that members of Bahrain’s medical community have been reading
my Twitter postings, and doctors and nurses rushed me from patient to
patient so I could see and photograph the injuries and write messages to the
world and get the news out right away. They knew that King Hamad’s
government would wrap its brutality in lies.
The doctors spoke in enormous frustration about what they termed butchery or
massacres, but they encountered evidence of the danger of speaking publicly.
In the midst of the crisis, a democracy activist staggered in for treatment
from a fresh beating by security forces. He had made public statements about
police brutality he had witnessed, and so, he said, the police had just
kidnapped him and brutalized him all over again.
The hospital’s ambulance drivers had been beaten on Thursday morning by
Bahrain’s army and police for attempting to rescue the dead and injured, and
some had been warned that they would be executed if they tried again to help
protesters. But they showed enormous courage in rushing to the scene of the
carnage once again.
One ambulance paramedic, Yasser, was still recovering in the hospital from
the beating he suffered the last time. But when he heard the call for all
hands in the emergency room, he staggered over to the ambulance bay and went
out to pick up the wounded.
“Those people needed help, and I had to go,” he told me. “But when we got
there, the police blocked us and wouldn’t let us through.”
Indeed, the army temporarily seized four ambulances and their crews,
hospital staff said, although this time it apparently spared them beatings.
The first ambulances on the scene had reported many, many casualties, and
doctors were aghast at the idea that there were many injured who were not
being treated. So a group of them decided to drive out to army lines and beg
to be allowed to collect the dead or wounded. This was considered an
extremely perilous mission, so they decided that only male doctors would
participate. But several female doctors immediately clamored to go as well.
When our close ally behaves in such a way, America finds itself in a tough
position, and that probably explains President Obama’s very cautious
statement saying that he is “deeply concerned.” We value Bahrain as the host
of the United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet, we worry (probably too much) about
Iranian influence, and it’s not clear how much leverage we have. King Hamad
has strong Saudi support and has so outraged his subjects that he may feel
that his best hope for staying in power is to shoot his subjects.
But we should signal more clearly that we align ourselves with the
21st-century aspirations for freedom of Bahrainis rather than the brutality
of their medieval monarch. I’m not just deeply “concerned” by what I’ve seen
here. I’m outraged."
Also read Robert Fisk in the Independent -
'They didn't run away. They faced the bullets head-on'
Emaar's Pavilion Gallery
19 February 2011
Welcome to the neighborhood. A new contemporary art space,
The Pavilion Downtown Dubai, is set to open on Thursday February 24. The
non-commercial space aims to provide a place to view, discuss and
participate in work by local and international artists.
The building hosts two gallery spaces. It was formerly a sales office and is
situated on Emaar Boilevard in Downtown Dubai, opposite the Burj Khalifa and
a walk across the building site from Executive Towers.
The Pavilion will present an annual programme of exhibitions, public art
initiatives and will develop direct audience participation in two spaces:
Gallery One and Gallery Two.
A cafe will open, as well as a cinema, espresso bar and library.
Bike rentals will also soon be on offer for those who wish to experience
Downtown Dubai.
Public arts — including a 40 metre banner that is commissioned annually and
wraps around the corner of the building's façade, as well as outdoor
sculptures and installations — will be visible from the street and
neighbouring buildings. Book launches, artist talks, film screenings,
musical performances, workshops and children's events will create
opportunities to engage artists, writers, students, scholars and the public
to contribute to the cultural landscape of Dubai.
A series of sculptural installations will be exhibited on the front lawn
throughout the year. The first is an architectural installation by Lebanese
interior designer Pierre Abboud. This untitled piece was created in honour
of UAE national day on December 2, 2010.
The new art space will present an opening programme including a panel
discussion and sound performance on Thursday.
For the first annual banner commission, Haig Aivazian will present The
Unimaginable Things We Build, a film strip comprising stills from
user-generated cell-phone videos documenting the historic launch of the
tallest building in the world, Burj Khalifa.
Currently living in Chicago, Aivazian is an artist, curator, writer and the
associate curator for the upcoming Sharjah Biennial 10. His work
investigates the intersections between the migration of peoples, the
circulation of consumer goods and the propagation of ideologies. A unique
light installation by James Clar will also inaugurate Gallery One. A media
artist whose work is a fusion of technology, popular culture, and visual
information, Clar explores the limitations of various communication mediums
and their effect on the individual and society.
The first exhibition in Gallery Two will be an installation by street
graffiti artist The Bow Terrorist. The Bow Terrorist stencils minimal and
humorous phrases and ‘bow' tags in arbitrary locations across the city.
Lebanese electro-acoustic musician Tarek Atoui will present extracts from
his Un-drum sound performances during the opening reception.
Welcome to our building site
18 February 2011
Picture credits - Imre Solt at
www.BurjDubaiSkyscraper.com
Skirting the Issue
18 February 2011 The Irrawaddy
Apparently out newly installed (but still the same people)
government in Burma has been making an unusual fashion statement. The sight
of junta supremo Snr-Gen Than Shwe and his close aides on national TV
dressed in women's longyis at a state dinner in Naypyidaw has become the
talk of Burma.
Marking the 64th anniversary of Union Day on Feb. 12 in Naypyidaw,
78-year-old Than Shwe appeared at the event accompanied by other top
military brass wearing gongbong (traditional Burman headscarves), and acheik
(colorful sarongs worn by women at weddings and formal occasions).
It was the first time this year that Than Shwe has appeared without his
uniform at a state dinner.
The cross-dressing fashion seems to have initiated when cabinet members,
including Thein Sein, wore pink, yellow and white longyis to meet Lao Prime
Minister Bouasone Bouphavanh in June.
But many political observers, astrologists and ordinary people in teashops
around the country said they believe the generals' cross-dressing is an
intentional act of superstition, known locally as yadaya.
“They [the generals] know and must know that these acheik were designed for
women,” said a senior journalist in Rangoon. “But they wore them
nevertheless. We all know this is yadaya to counter the influence of The
Lady [Aung San Suu Kyi] and to reverse her karma.”
Many fortunetellers have predicted that a woman will rule Burma one day, and
so the generals’ fortune-tellers have advised them to dress as women, he
added.
Presumably the same fortune tellers that persuaded the
government to fell Rangoon and build an extravagant new capital in the
middle of the jungle.
Enter the Orange Shirts
17 February 2011 -
The Economist
In a city of clogged streets, motorbike taxis are the
essential lubricant. They weave through rush-hour traffic, mount pavements
and roar down the labyrinthine alleys known as soi. They lurk in gangs on
street corners, waiting to carry people or goods, or run errands. Some
200,000 drivers sporting orange jackets are reckoned to ply their trade in
Bangkok.
The motorbike drivers are mad about politics, which in Thailand is colour-coded.
The drivers are overwhelmingly “red” and loyal to a former prime minister,
Thaksin Shinawatra. Most hail from the pro-Thaksin north-east, and were in
the thick of the action during last year’s rowdy red-shirt rallies.
Motorbikes were the red-shirt cavalry, keeping tabs on the movements of
state troops, who ended the protests with the loss of 91 lives.
This is an election year, and every vote counts. So the prime minister,
Abhisit Vejjajiva, no red shirt he, has singled out motorbike taxis for
attention under a new, pro-poor programme called the People’s Agenda. Along
with millions of other informal workers, motorbike drivers will be eligible
for social security, loans from state banks and other benefits. To drive the
point home, Mr Abhisit posed with an orange-clad motorbike driver at the
launch of the programme, which he described as a “New Year’s gift” to Thai
people.
But access to credit and sick pay do not top the drivers’ agenda. More
important, they say, is taking on the “influential people”, mostly corrupt
cops, who extort money. Those who do not pay may not work, so almost
everyone coughs up. “We don’t want a gift from the government,” says Wichart
Chungchuen, a veteran driver. “We want to make sure that if we make 500 baht
a day, it stays in our pocket.”
One reason why Mr Thaksin remains so popular is that he cracked down on the
overlords. He also ensured that motorbike taxis were registered with city
hall and that their drivers were issued with numbered jackets. After Mr
Thaksin was ousted in a military coup in 2006, the extortionists returned to
demand their cut. The registration system unravelled as drivers traded
jackets or dropped out and others arrived with unregistered bikes. Some
jackets ended up in the hands of the “influential people”, who rented them
out or sold them on for up to 150,000 baht ($4,900).
Starting on February 15th all motorbike taxis began to be reregistered. This
should make it easier to curb the pay-offs. But Mr Wichart is sceptical that
the government means business. Whereas Mr Thaksin broke bread with drivers
and listened to their gripes, an aloof Mr Abhisit merely sent his aides.
Last year Mr Wichart and other motorbike taxi drivers formed a trade union.
Wary of being painted as red-shirt partisans, the union tries to steer a
moderate path. Leaders insist that they are neither red nor yellow, the
colour of the staunchly conservative rival movement. They are orange shirts,
after their distinctive jackets.
Yet neutrality may prove a stretch in Thailand’s polarised politics. Drivers
are keen observers, says Claudio Sopranzetti, a Harvard anthropologist
studying the tribe. They slip between the cracks in society, flitting
between rich and poor quarters, city and countryside. Better than anyone,
they see Thailand’s inequalities.
Manx2 in shameful legal dispute
17 February 2011
A week ago six people died in a Manx2 Airlines plane crash at
Cork airport.
Mark Dickens from Watford was one of those who survived. His lawyers,
Stewarts Law, have written to Manx2, seeking details of insurance provison
and an advance payment for Mr Dickens of more than £15,000.
Stewarts Law is seeking the payment to cover costs of
humanitarian support to Mr Dickens, who was to be transported by aircraft to
the UK for medical care on Thursday from Cork University Hospital.
Manx 2's solicitors said the airline was not responsible for such claims.
In a letter to Stewarts Law, Appleby Solicitors for Manx2 said the airline
had acted as "ticket provider or booking office" and that according to the
terms and conditions of Mr Dickens' ticket purchase the carrier was
Flightline BCN and his contract was with them.
It added that Mr Dickens' claim should be directed to that company, which is
based at Barcelona in Spain.
Stewarts Law disagree and their head of aviation at the law firm has said
that under the Montreal Convention and European regulations "a passenger
that suffers death or injury has the right to seek compensation from either
the contracting carrier or the actual carrier".
In a statement, the chairman of Manx2, Noel Hayes, said that under the terms
of the contract, the airline had chartered the aircraft involved in the Cork
crash from Flightline BCN. He said that under the European Air Operators
Certificate, such carriers maintained full insurance provision.
Flightline BCN is the Barcelona, Spain-based company that
operated the Manx2 flight using its crew and the Swearingen Metroliner that
crashed at Cork. The aircraft was owned by Airlada, based in Seville, Spain.
Mr Hayes said Manx2 continued "to extend our deepest sympathy to the
families of those who lost their lives in Cork and to those who are still
recovering from this terrible incident".
The two pilots and four passengers died when the aircraft turned upside down
on landing following an approach in fog. There were six survivors. Since the
accident Manx2 has cancelled its contract with Flightline.
The trouble with this is that if you ask any passenger who
booked with Manx2 they will be convinced that Manx2 is the contracting
carrier.
It also suggest a major flaw in the airline operating
regulations in the UK. There are bereaved families as a result of this
accident; and only a week later, their despair is now the matter of a legal
battle with the respective airlines all denying any responsibility.
Dubai airshow remains at DXB for 2011
17 February 2011
The Dubai Air Show will remain at its Dubai International Airport location
for 2011. The planned move to its new location at the Dubai World Central
complex at Jebel Ali has been postponed.
Simple really. The Dubai World Central airport and infrastructure are simply
not ready.
This has prompted the Dubai Government’s decision for the show to remain in
its current home at the Airport Expo centre alongside Dubai’s International
Airport.
But there is a problem. Land previously used by the Dubai Airshow at Airport
Expo has already been taken up by hangar and terminal expansion. The Dubai
Civil Aviation authority (DCA) is apparently developing expansion plans at
the current site that will ensure the Dubai Airshow can maintain its
position as the world’s third largest business to business aviation event
after Paris and Farnborough.
The show is due to take place between November 15 – 19.
Thuggery in Bahrain should be condemned
17 February 2011
In early morning Bahrain there are more than a dozen tanks,
several military trucks and military ambulances still on central streets in
the capital; what on earth were the authorities thinking in Bahrain last
night.
Yes there were protestors camped at the central Pearl square.
But every report says that the protestors were peaceful; that there were
women and children there.
But at 3am the security forces stormed into the square with
tear gas, rubber bullets and batons. There are at least 2 deaths and
hundreds injured. Some of the injured have shot gun wounds.
Most of the protesters in Pearl Square were asleep when the
assault began, witnesses said, noting that no steps had been taken to guard
the area against the security forces, even though two people had been killed
in earlier clashes with them. The King himself has apologised for the
earlier violence so why the crackdown last night.
Doctors have said they expected the death toll to rise. The
Los Angeles Times reports a woman in a hospital hallway who said as she
tearfully held a small child being treated with oxygen. "Tomorrow the King
will say, 'Sorry,' but this was done with his permission. He is the one
telling these men to do these things."
Two days earlier protesters had set up camp in the square —
some with their families — to signal their intent to stay until King Hamad
ibn Isa Khalifa forced his uncle to step down as prime minister and
guaranteed an end to discrimination and repression.
Unlike the heavily nationalist revolts in Egypt and Tunisia, Bahrain's
unrest is rooted in the discrimination felt by the impoverished Shiite
Muslim majority at the hands of the governing Sunni Muslim royal family.
Bahrain is unique in its situation in the region, and has
complex dynamics and demographics. The protestors were not united in their
demands. Some demanding the removal of the King, some the removal of the
Prime Minister; some changes in the constitution.
What really united them was their wish for a better life, to
escape oppression and injustice. But that cannot happen until the majority
of people have a voice and believe that they will be heard.
The biggest question then from last night is Why? The
brutality was not needed. The demands of the protestors were not new. When
rulers start killing their own people then they lose all authority and
respect.
Meanwhile the USA is in a difficult position; the island
nation of nearly 800,000 people is also crucial to U.S. interests in the
region: It hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet strategically based to watch over
Iran. But the US government needs to condemn this brutality.
The silence from other Middle Eastern states is also telling.
As the first Gulf state to discover oil, Bahrain built its economy from oil
refining and export. With dwindling reserves that are expected to run out in
10 to 15 years, however, the country has diversified to also become a major
center for Islamic banking.
More than half of the 1.2 million people living in Bahrain are expatriates.
The not so adventurous Aussies
16 February 2011
In a bid to boost domestic tourism; take a paddle if you are
heading to Queensland, the Australian dept of Foreign Affairs has re-issued
its travel warning for Thailand: heck - stay at home guys!
The notice is as follows - fair enough some of it is
sensible.
"This advice has been reviewed and reissued. It contains new
information in the Summary and under Safety and Security: Terrorism (recent
terrorist attacks and locations that may be subject to attack), Safety and
Security: Civil Unrest/Political Tension (activation of Internal Security
Act in seven districts of Bangkok) and Border Regions (ongoing border
dispute between Thailand and Cambodia). The level of the advice for the area
surrounding the Pra Viharn temple on the Thai-Cambodia border has increased
to “Reconsider your need to travel”.
Summary
We advise you to exercise a high degree of caution in Thailand due to the
possibility of further violent civil unrest and the threat of terrorist
attack.
Pay close attention to your personal security at all times and monitor the
media for information about possible new safety or security risks.
On 8 February 2011, the Thai Government activated the Internal Security Act
(ISA) in seven districts of Bangkok. The districts covered by the ISA are
Phra Nakhon, Watthana, Pathumwan, Dusit, Pomprab Sattruphai, Wang Thonglang
and Ratchathewi. The ISA gives the military a role in overseeing domestic
security and provides security forces with additional search and detention
powers.
On 21 December 2010, the Thai Government lifted the state of emergency that
had been in place in Bangkok and other parts of Thailand since April 2010.
The Government established a Situation Monitoring Centre to keep track of
security threats across Thailand.
Large scale political demonstrations and related incidents in Bangkok and
other parts of Thailand have resulted in fatalities and injuries in recent
years. Firearms, grenades and small explosive devices have been used at
various locations. Between April and October 2010, a number of small
explosive devices were detonated in Bangkok and some other provinces,
including Chiang Mai.
The political situation remains unpredictable. Further political unrest and
violence cannot be ruled out in Bangkok and other provinces. Thai officials
have warned that more attacks in Bangkok are possible.
You should avoid protests and political rallies, and any security
deployments associated with such events. You should monitor developments
that might affect your safety in Thailand, including the possibility of
further violent civil unrest and the risk of terrorism.
Australians should avoid any prominent buildings associated with the Thai
Government and military, such as Government House, the Parliament Building
and the Supreme Court in Bangkok, all Provincial Government buildings and
all military installations.
Penalties for drug offences are severe and include the death penalty. The
possession of even small quantities of "soft drugs" for recreational
purposes can result in lengthy jail sentences.
Carefully consider your safety and the implications of accidents if you hire
a motorcycle or jet ski. You should check with your travel insurer whether
these activities are covered by your policy. You may be detained and
arrested by police following jet ski and motorcycle accidents until
compensation, often in thousands of dollars, can be negotiated between
parties.
Tourists may be exposed to scams and more serious criminal activity in
Thailand. Be aware that food and drink spiking occurs in Thailand, including
around popular backpacker destinations such as Khao San Road in Bangkok and
the night-time entertainment zones in Bangkok, Pattaya and Phuket.
We strongly advise you not to travel at this time to the southern provinces
of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Songkhla or overland to and from the
Malaysian border through these provinces due to high levels of ongoing
violence in these regions, including terrorist attacks and bombings
resulting in deaths and injuries on an almost daily basis. Since January
2004, several thousand people have reportedly been killed and many more
injured, including a number of foreigners. If you are in these provinces,
you should consider leaving.
We advise you to reconsider your need to travel to the area surrounding the
Preah Vihear Temple (known as Khao Pra Viharn temple in Thailand) located in
the border region between Sisaket Province in Thailand and Preah Vihear
Province in Cambodia due to the ongoing border dispute. In February 2011,
there was renewed fighting and use of heavy weapons and artillery. Tensions
remain high.
The dogfight over Canadian skies
16 February 2011
Brent Jang for CTV News
For Emirates Airline, all routes lead to Dubai. The strategically located
aviation hub is the centrepiece of the carrier’s ambitious expansion
strategy to tap economic growth in India, China and the Middle East.
For its competitors, the renegade carrier and its grand plans have the
potential to change global air traffic patterns, disrupting a fragile
industry that’s already under pressure from rising fuel prices.
Emirates’ game plan – funnelling travellers through Dubai instead of Europe,
and on larger and larger planes – has worked wonders so far. The state-owned
carrier has managed to not only survive but thrive as an independent
carrier, declining to join one of the three major airline alliances in the
world – Star, SkyTeam and Oneworld. When it launched in 1985, Emirates flew
only to Pakistan and had just two planes. Now, it flies to more than 110
destinations in 66 countries and has some 150 wide-body jets, including 15
Airbus A380 double-decker planes and 85 Boeing 777s. Emirates has become the
world’s sixth-largest airline for international passenger traffic.
Emirates’ success reflects the emergence of a new world economic order, one
in which other Gulf carriers such as Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways and
Doha-based Qatar Airways are also rapidly expanding, said Robert Kokonis,
president of airline consulting firm AirTrav Inc. “The balance of economic
power is shifting away from North America and Europe,” said Mr. Kokonis, who
depicts Emirates as a trailblazer seeking to take advantage of Dubai’s
location in the thick of global air traffic routes.
But an array of nervous rivals warn the carrier is trying to muscle in on
territory long held – and amply served – by the old-guard “legacy airlines.”
Air Canada and Germany’s Lufthansa, partners in the Star Alliance of global
airlines, are pitted against the Dubai-based carrier for transatlantic
traffic. They view Emirates, owned by the Dubai government, as a clear and
present danger to their lucrative international flights.
Seeking to protect their Frankfurt hub, the two partners allege that
Emirates receives subsidies from the Dubai government in the form of cheap
landing fees at Dubai International Airport, an accusation that Emirates
hotly disputes.
The airline’s transition from tiny regional carrier to global player has
happened quickly. During its first two decades, Emirates easily won approval
for landing slots from foreign governments because it was too small to be
considered a threat by other carriers.
That started to change last year, after Emirates sharply increased its
orders for new Airbus A380s and Boeing 777s – planes that are larger and
more fuel-efficient than the Airbus A330s and A340s in its fleet. More than
190 aircraft are on order, including about 75 Airbus A380 double-decker
planes, which seat almost 500 passengers, and nearly 50 Boeing 777s, which
have room for about 400 travellers. In 2015, the 350-seat Airbus A350 will
be introduced into the Emirates fleet.
Alarmed by Emirates’ steady stream of new plane orders, some of the world’s
leading carriers – including Lufthansa, British Airways, Air France/KLM and
Australia’s Qantas – have publicly criticized its expansion strategy. Air
Canada, for one, warned that Emirates is unfairly seeking to siphon off
international traffic, and accused its rival of trying to dump seats into
the Canadian market. “Few Canadians actually travel to Dubai as a
destination and fewer still residents of Dubai travel to Canada,” Air Canada
chief executive officer Calin Rovinescu said in a speech last fall. Others
critics pointed out that the A380 jumbo jets have been designated for
Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, alleging Emirates wants to pick and choose
among the top Canadian destinations, hammering at the heart of Air Canada.
Last fall, the Canadian government denied additional landing rights beyond
the three already held by Emirates, a decision that the Harper government
has stood by, despite heavy political pressure from the United Arab
Emirates. Germany is still deciding whether to acquiesce to Lufthansa’s
lobbying and turn down Emirates’ requests for more German landing rights.
Andrew Parker, senior vice-president of international affairs at Emirates,
bristles at what he terms “Lufthansa propaganda.” He said Emirates prides
itself on having a young fleet of planes, and will retire about 100 jets,
including older models of the Boeing 777, within the next decade as it takes
delivery of new ones.
As for comparisons between Canada and Germany, Mr. Parker said they’re
overblown because the Gulf carrier already has access to 49 landing slots in
Germany, compared with just three in Canada. A recovery in European
carriers’ revenue last year and “substantial aircraft orders from every
region should counter the pessimism and cries for protection from some
carriers, and confirm it is not just Emirates that believes long-term
investment underpins profitability and growth,” he said.
After Ottawa refused demands by Emirates and Etihad Airways for new landing
rights at Toronto’s Pearson International Airport in October, the UAE
responded by ousting Canadian soldiers in November from Camp Mirage, a
staging base near Dubai that had been used for nine years to supply the
Afghanistan war. In December, the UAE imposed visa fees of up to $1,000 on
Canadian visitors, further escalating tensions between Canada and the Arab
country.
So far, the political feuding hasn’t scared off air travellers, who
appreciate Emirates’ far-reaching network and its attentive in-flight
service and quality meals – impressive enough for Air Transport World
magazine to name it the world’s “airline of the year” for 2011. The carrier
specializes in long-haul flights connecting the globe’s major cities: Are
you flying from Toronto to Mumbai, or Sao Paulo to Delhi, or Milan to
Sydney? Aboard Emirates, the common theme is a stopover in Dubai, one of
seven sheikdoms in the UAE.
Even travellers who could take a non-stop flight between western Europe and
southeast Asia have opted for Emirates since it offers the comfort of bigger
and newer planes, as well as better departure times on competitive flight
paths and posh seating pods in first class and the executive-class cabin. On
the upper level of the Emirates-operated A380, there are 14 suites in first
class and 76 lie-flat seats in business class. First class includes a lounge
and two shower spas.
But in opting for Emirates and its mandatory Dubai stopover, passengers are
forsaking the traditional aviation map, in which national-flag carriers
carved out lucrative routes for themselves and their alliances by focusing
on such cities as London, Paris and Frankfurt.
Many passengers are accustomed to flying through these European hubs en
route to China, India and the Middle East. But Emirates wants to increase
its flights from North America, South America and Europe – via Dubai – to
China and India, and to a lesser extent, Africa and Russia. It’s also
counting on boosting traffic east to west, hoping to persuade more
travellers in China and India to catch its planes when flying to Africa,
Russia, North America, South America and Europe.
Those plans are of particular importance to Britain, for one, according to a
research report by Royal Bank of Scotland, because of “the attraction of
Dubai’s tourist product to U.K. consumers and Dubai’s position as a transit
point” to India and Australia.
“It is a common concern that the very substantial aircraft orders of the
Gulf carriers will take significant market share from European, Asian and
U.S. network carriers,” the report states, “and will threaten to upset the
long-haul airline market in the way that low-cost carriers have destabilized
the short-haul markets.”
Fears that European airlines will be displaced by Emirates and other Gulf
carriers are overstated, the report argues. But the RBS study does pinpoint
concerns for air service to Canada: “From the perspective of European
carriers, we think the major strategic issue will be that Gulf carriers are
likely to gain very significant market share on traffic flows from India to
the U.S. and Canada.”
In Canadian skies, Emirates is a fairly recent arrival. It launched its
service here in 2007, and introduced an Airbus A380 jumbo jet on its
Toronto-Dubai route in mid-2009. With only three flights a week, the airline
argues business travellers require daily service – hence its request for
additional landing rights.
Canada is seen as a key battleground, because if Emirates can be halted
here, that would provide ammunition for carriers in Europe and elsewhere to
step up lobbying of their governments to reject or limit its expansion
requests. But there’s another factor affecting those political decisions:
The main components for the Airbus A380 are built in France, Germany,
Britain and Spain, employing thousands of workers. So industry analysts
weren’t surprised when France, ignoring Air France-KLM’s lobby, recently
granted approval to the UAE for 22 more French landing slots, boosting the
total to 57 a week for the country’s carriers.
In Germany, Lufthansa uses the Canadian dispute to bolster its lobbying. “A
remarkable battle for market access is playing out between Canada and the
UAE,” Lufthansa said in a policy briefing to German politicians. “Hundreds
of long-haul aircraft and enormous overcapacity have to be filled. Pressure
is mounting on Germany, as well.”
Lufthansa and other critics complain that the UAE subsidizes Dubai
International Airport, effectively clearing the way for Emirates to grow at
a “breakneck pace,” and that it has unfair advantages that amount to
“predatory” competition stemming from Dubai’s low-tax regime and access to
cheap labour, notably immigrant workers from India and Pakistan.
Emirates’ Mr. Parker shrugs off the criticisms as sour grapes, saying
Lufthansa is over-reacting to the airline’s attempts to enter Stuttgart and
the new Berlin-Brandenburg Airport, set to open in mid-2012.
He said Ottawa considered “minuscule” improvements that were “utterly
ridiculous,” adding that Emirates would have been satisfied if it had been
allowed daily landing rights in Toronto, with a promise to review potential
expansion into Calgary and Vancouver.
That day will come, he believes. For in the world according to Emirates, it
is only a matter of time before Ottawa and other governments bend, in a
trend that will ultimately redraw the world’s aviation maps.
A limited vote
16 February 2011
With all the changes across the Middle East I wonder how long
an elite electoral college can continue without significant change.
The advisory body of the UAE is called the Federal National
Council. The Federal National Council is the legislature of the United
Arab Emirates. It has advisory tasks rather than legislative power.
Half of the 40-member FNC will be elected by an electoral
college, which is to be at least 300 times the number of its representatives
in the Council, according to a decree issued by President His Highness
Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The 20 remaining legislators will be
appointed by the Rulers of the emirates.
A broader electoral base sounds good; yet only
12 out of every 1,000 Emiratis will be entitled to vote.
The last election for the FNC was held in 2006. In 2011 the electoral
college will be doubled to more than 12,000 Emiratis, picked by Their
Highnesses the Members of the Supreme Council and Rulers of the Emirates.
The decree states that a National Elections Committee led by Dr Anwar
Mohammad Gargash, Minister of State For FNC Affairs, will be formed.
Members of the committee, which will oversee the elections and determine
polling stations and regulations, include ministers of justice, education
and culture, youth and community development. A date has not been set for
elections, but several former representatives of the House predicted they
will be held in September.
Members of the FNC have repeatedly sought greater empowerment, steps to
broaden political participation and the creation of a full-fledged
legislature.
Speaking last week as the House ended its 14th legislative term, nearly five
years since half of its members were elected, Sultan Saqr Al Suwaidi, a
member from Dubai, said the FNC must have more powers to take part in the
decision-making process, not just submit recommendations, which may or may
not be implemented.
In an address to the nation marking the end of the polling process in 2006,
Shaikh Khalifa said that the FNC had helped the government to achieve
legislation and address many issues. He said its role would be expanded in
the coming era "to enrich and develop our parliamentary experiment."
Political participation: How numbers add up
- The electoral college will comprise more than 12,000 members with Abu
Dhabi and Dubai having the largest representation with 2,400 members each.
- Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah will each have 1,800 members while Ajman, Umm
Al Quwain and Fujairah will each have 1,200 members.
- Abu Dhabi and Dubai will each have eight representatives in the 40-member
Federal National Council, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah will have six each
while Ajman, Umm Al Quwain and Fujairah will have four each.
Reality check - modern TV golf is dull
15 February 2011
Golf needs a reality check.
The European Tour was in Dubai last week for its four day
Dubai Desert Classic.
But for all the attempts at hyping the event it was basically
a bore - and it really did not matter whether you were watching at the
course or on TV - it was dull. A couple of highlights do not save four days
of tedium. There were some 120 golfers starting the tournament. But in
reality maybe there were 20 that anyone wants to watch.
Can you remember who won? Yes. Can you remember who came
second and third? Have not got a clue!
Leading golfers make so much money in appearance fees and
endorsements that they do not need to even turn up for many events.
McDowell, Poulter, Casey were all absent from Dubai. Yet this is meant to be
one of the leading tournaments of the year.
Tiger Woods was there - but I doubt we will see him again.
Paid an outrageous appearance fee he showed how much he enjoyed the
tournament with an extravagant gob on the 12th green.
There was plenty of scowling, club throwing and bucket
kicking. Not just from Mr. Woods. There were very few who appeared to take
any interest in the crowds that paid good money to watch or who appeared to
be even vaguely enjoying their work.
These golfers are so pampered. Hotels, courtesy cars,
immaculate facilities, drooling sponsors, fawning uncritical (except for the
gobbing Tiger) commentators. Protected from crowds by virulent caddies and
over zealous marshalls.
Meanwhile the crowds at the course are shepherded around
through the sand and bushes. While the pampered pets take up to 5 hours to
play a round of golf. And these guys are meant to be good. 3 hours is good.
4 hours acceptable. 5 hours farcical.
It says little for the state of the game that golfers have to
be told that deliberately spitting on green or a tee is out of bounds.
Temple Trouble
15 February 2011 -
The Economist
Sitting on her straw mat, Pisamai Poonsuk recalls how her
family of ten fled their border village in a pickup truck soon after the
shells began falling. After staying the night with relatives, the family
moved into a temporary camp. Ms Pisamai, a cassava farmer, is waiting for
the all-clear to go home. She prays the ceasefire will hold between the Thai
and Cambodian soldiers ranged along a disputed border. She has little time
for Thai jingoism. “We should trade with the Cambodians. We should be
brothers.”
Fat chance. The clashes that erupted on February 4th were the fiercest since
July 2008, when the two armies first began rumbling at each other in the
vicinity of Preah Vihear, an 11th-century Khmer temple that Cambodia wants
to develop for mass tourism. Six people died and dozens more were injured
during four days of fighting. The temple itself was only slightly damaged.
Each side accuses the other of firing first into populated areas.
Though the shelling has stopped, any ceasefire remains fragile as long as
nationalists in both countries keep stoking the dispute. Thailand’s prime
minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, faces street protests by the ultra-conservative
People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) over his alleged failure to defend
Thai soil. Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Sen, does not tolerate protests
but is sensitive to claims of lost sovereignty. He quickly castigated
war-mongering Thailand and called for UN peacekeepers on the border.
It is not the first time that an ancient temple has bred violence. In 2003
anti-Thai riots erupted in Phnom Penh after a Thai actress was misquoted as
saying that Angkor Wat, which appears on the Cambodian flag, belonged to
Thailand. On February 8th PAD leaders said that Thai troops should threaten
to invade, forcing a return of Preah Vihear. To Cambodians, resentful of
being pushed around by big neighbours, this is bully-boy stuff.
In 1962 the World Court ruled that Preah Vihear, which sits on a ridge, was
on Cambodian soil. But it did not rule on overlapping claims to the temple’s
hinterland. In 2008 UNESCO listed the temple as a World Heritage site, to
the delight of Cambodia’s tourist industry. The PAD cried foul over what it
claimed was a loss of Thai territory. The controversy became a pretext for
marathon protests that helped topple an elected government and sweep Mr
Abhisit into power. Now the PAD vows to topple its erstwhile ally.
Despite international concern, Mr Hun Sen’s plea for UN intervention seems a
non-starter. Thailand insists that bilateral talks can resolve the border
dispute and rejects outside mediation. This did not stop Indonesia from
dipping a toe into the row. It currently holds the rotating chair of the
Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), to which the two feuding
parties belong. Its foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa, flew to both
capitals this week for talks. But, an ASEAN diplomat sniffs, Indonesia
should keep its own ambitions in check, lest the tables are turned in
future. Nobody wants anyone “meddling in his own affairs”, he says. So much
for Ms Pisamai’s brotherhood.
(See also - Loose stalks
posing as a sheaf as The Economist dissects ASEAN)
Dubai, the LSE and the TMX
13 February 2011
This is complicated. But if
the proposed merger of the TMX Group (Toronto) and the LSE (lonodn) is
approved, Sheik Mohammed, Vice President of the UAE and the ruler of Dubai,
will end up with an 11.3-per-cent interest in the combined exchange, the
largest single holding.
Sheik Mohammed is already the largest shareholder of the
London Stock Exchange, indirectly owning roughly 21 per cent through a
private holding company. He also indirectly owns 15 per cent of the Nasdaq
OMX, the second largest stock market in the United States, and controls
Dubai’s two stock exchanges.
Borse Dubai is a joint venture between the Sheik’s private company and a
government investment fund. Within weeks of its creation in August, 2007,
Borse Dubai acquired for $4.9-billion the 21-per-cent stake in the LSE as
well as a 31-per-cent position in Nasdaq. It also took control of the Dubai
exchanges and announced plans for many more acquisitions. The ambition faded
with the impcat of the global financial meltdown in 2008.
The crisis hit Dubai hard. Borse Dubai hurt. The value of its
holding in the LSE fell by half, trading and listings on the Dubai stock
markets dried up and expansion plans were shelved. Last December, the
company sold roughly half its position in Nasdaq at a sizeable loss, raising
$672-million that will go toward paying down Dubai’s $100-billion debt.
The TMX-LSE merger could breathe new life into Borse Dubai. One of the
selling points of the merger is that the new exchange will dominate listings
for mining and energy companies, something still relevant to the oil-rich
Gulf state. And, it will give Borse Dubai the expansion it has long craved.
The combined entity would become a top centre for trading mining and energy
shares, with $4.1 trillion of stock changing hands a year.
That’s probably one reason the company endorsed the proposed merger within
hours of it being announced. “Borse Dubai has always been supportive of
management initiatives to create shareholder value in the London Stock
Exchange,” the company said in a statement. “We continue to support the
management in their efforts to create both a stronger platform and a more
valuable enterprise for stakeholders.”
But
the Canadians may still move to block a proposed $6.7bn merger because of
fears of the impact of Dubai's ownership.
Ontario’s Finance Minister Dwight Duncan said the idea Dubai would be the
largest single shareholder in the exchange raised political red flags that
could prompt the Canadian government to step in and derail the deal. “We do
business with the Middle East. I am just not sure I want them owning our
stock exchange,” Duncan told the Globe & Mail. 11% is not ownership! But
under Canadian law, the province of Ontario can move to block the stock
exchange deal if it deems it not to be in the public interest.
The ongoing dispute over Emirates landing rights in Canada
and access to the UAE's Camp Mirage have already created significant
distrust between the two countries.
Some details and background:
Who owns the Toronto Stock Exchange?
The exchange used to be owned by Canada’s largest brokerage firms, but it
became a for-profit company in 2000 and then a publicly traded company with
much wider ownership in 2002. The exchange is currently owned by parent
company TMX Group Inc., which is based in Toronto. No one owns more than 10
per cent of the shares of TMX Group – and no one can do so without approval
of the Ontario and Quebec securities regulators.
Who would own the new merged company?
Short answer: Dubai and Qatar would own a lot of it. Borse Dubai owns 20.6
per cent of the London Stock Exchange and Qatar Investment Authority owns
15.1 per cent, giving the two Gulf states a 36-per-cent total stake. The
deal terms say LSE shareholders would own just over half of the merged
company – 55 per cent – which means Borse Dubai and Qatar Investment
Authority would own almost 20 per cent of the new company. Borse Dubai is
controlled by the emirate's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.
What would the new merged company be called?
“Holdco” has a nice ring to it. The TSX and LSE would continue to operate
under their existing names. No name has been determined yet for the parent
company that would own the two operations. Legal documents are generically
calling it “Holdco” – short for holding company –for now. Shares of the new
merged company would trade in both Toronto and London.
Where would the head office be?
The company would have co-headquarters in Toronto and London, and the
agreement requires “one or more global business units and one or more
support functions” be headquartered in Toronto. There is an undertaking in
the merger agreement that the global primary stock markets business would be
based in Toronto and the group’s finance function would be run from Toronto.
Montreal would be the headquarters of the global derivatives operation and
Calgary would house the global energy business unit.
Who would run it?
Initially, the chief executive officer of the new company would be Xavier
Rolet, the London-based CEO of London Stock Exchange Group PLC. TMX Group
CEO Tom Kloet would become president of the new company while TMX Group
chief financial officer Michael Ptasznik would become CFO. Both Mr. Kloet
and Mr. Ptasznik would be based in Toronto.
How would it be governed?
The company would have a 15-member board of directors, chaired by TMX
chairman Wayne Fox. It would have seven Canadian directors on the board,
including the most senior executive of the new company who is based in
Canada and at least four independent Canadian directors. Initially, the
Canadian directors would include the chairman, CEO and CFO of TMX Group and
four independent directors. It is envisioned that three of the eight board
seats appointed by the LSE would be from the Borsa Italiana, which the LSE
controls. One-third of the board meetings would be held in Canada and a
majority will be held in Britain.
Can these commitments be changed?
Yes. The board composition conditions would be in effect for four years and
could change after that. The merger agreement lays out conditions under
which Canada could lose directors from the board and lose executive
positions. Business functions could be shifted to other jurisdictions at any
time as long as there is an overall balance between global business units
headquartered in Canada, Britain and Italy. The balance is subject to
adjustment in the event of a significant acquisition or business expansion
in other regions.
What is a “merger of equals”?
In a takeover, one company acquires another, usually smaller, entity by
paying cash or stock to the target’s shareholders. In a “merger of equals,”
however, two companies of roughly the same size combine through some form of
stock swap. What’s more important, though, is who is running the show. Key
executive roles might be divided up initially, but sometimes it becomes
clear over time that one firm is predominant in management or control. In
this case, LSE shareholders would end up with about 55 per cent of the
combined entity's stock, the British firm would have eight of 15 directors,
and the chief executive officer would come from the LSE. But the TSX would
supply the company chairman and chief financial officer.
What’s the deal worth?
TMX Group shareholders would receive 2.993 London Stock Exchange PLC shares
for each of their TMX shares, which means they would own 45 per cent of the
merged company. After the deal closes, the London company would be renamed
to reflect its broader scope. The combined companies currently have a market
value of $7.1-billion (Canadian).
Who must approve the deal?
A slew of bodies have to give their nod before this deal can be done. First,
a majority of LSE shareholders have to say “yes,” as do two-thirds of TMX
shareholders. An Ontario court has to approve the plan, and securities
regulators in Britain, Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, Alberta and
Manitoba will have a say. Because the two companies have operations in the
United States and Italy, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the
Italian securities commission will get a chance to weigh in. And of course
Ottawa will play a key role, because the merger is subject to the Investment
Canada Act and the Competition Act.
If the merger of the Toronto and London stock exchanges goes through, the
largest shareholder of the new entity won’t be a Canadian or a Brit. It will
be Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the billionaire ruler of Dubai who
loves racehorses and giant yachts and once dreamed of turning his tiny
emirate into a world financial centre.
Egypt's euphoria
12 February 2011 The Economist
"Jubilation is catching. It is impossible, for me at least, to watch the
crowds in Egypt, overjoyed at Hosni Mubarak's hotly-desired resignation,
with dry eyes and an unclenched throat. The best explanation I have heard
today for the mass euphoria rippling through Egypt came earlier this morning
when one Al Jazeera reporter, choking back sobs, described the rise of
Egypt's people and the fall of Egypt's dictator as "everything I've ever
hoped for". Everything! Another correspondent, reporting from Alexandria,
described Egypt's collective elation as the release of 30 years of
bottled-up emotion. He said he had seen birth, that he had seen marriage,
but he had never seen happiness like this, and it is everywhere. This is
sublimely powerful stuff. It may be the most powerful stuff.
I admit that I am more than a little tempted to rain on the parade and note
that Mr Mubarak's departure guarantees nothing and that it is not
unreasonable to fear a turn for the worse. There's a tiny, stability-loving
Burke on my shoulder, and I'm afraid he's no devil. All the same, for now
I'm not listening. Well, I did listen a little, but I've heard enough. It is
partly due to my Burkean worries that I feel the pessimist in me should just
stuff it for now. Whether or not Egypt flowers into a model democracy,
whether or not Egyptians tomorrow live more freely than Egyptians today,
today they threw off a tyrant. The surge of overwhelming bliss that has
overtaken Egyptians is the rare beautitude of democratic will. The hot blush
of liberation, a dazzled sense of infinite possibility swelling millions of
happy breasts is a precious thing of terrible, unfathomable beauty, and it
won't come to these people again. Whatever the future may hold, this is the
happiest many people will ever feel. This is the best day of some peoples'
lives. The tiny Dionysian anarchist on my other shoulder is no angel, but I
cannot deny that there is something holy in this feeling, that it is one of
few human experiences that justifies life—that satisfies, however briefly,
our desperate craving for more intensity, for more meaning, for more life
from life. Whatever the future holds, there will be disappointment, at best.
But there is always disappointment. Today, there is joy."
Tiger in the desert
11 February 2011
Getty Images
Avoiding a New Pharaoh
11 February 2011By
Nicholas Kristof New York Times
So Hosni Mubarak is out. Vice President Omar Suleiman says that Mubarak has
stepped down and handed over power to the military. This is a huge triumph
for people power, and it will resonate across the Middle East and far beyond
(you have to wonder what President Hu Jintao of China is thinking right
now). The narrative about how Arab countries are inhospitable for democracy,
how the Arab world is incompatible with modernity — that has been shattered
by the courage and vision of so many Tunisians and Egyptians.
It’s also striking that Egyptians triumphed over their police state without
Western help or even moral support. During rigged parliamentary elections,
the West barely raised an eyebrow. And when the protests began at Tahrir
Square, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said that the Mubarak
government was “stable” and “looking for ways to respond to the legitimate
needs and interests of the Egyptian people.” Oops. So much for our $80
billion intelligence agency. On my Facebook fan page, I asked my fans
(before the Tahrir protests began) what the next Tunisia would be. A
surprising number said Egypt — if you were among them, you apparently did
better than our intelligence community. Indeed, Egyptians in Tahrir told me
that they were broadly inspired by America’s example of freedom, but that
their greatest inspiration came from Tunisia and Al Jazeera. On Tahrir
Square, there were signs saying “Thank you, Tunisia.” So, all of you
Tunisians and Egyptians, “mabrouk” or “congratulations”! You’ve made
history. The score in Egypt is: People Power, 1; Police State, 0.
But the game isn’t over, and now a word of caution. I worry that senior
generals may want to keep (with some changes) a Mubarak-style government
without Mubarak. In essence the regime may have decided that Mubarak had
become a liability and thrown him overboard — without any intention of
instituting the kind of broad, meaningful democracy that the public wants.
Senior generals have enriched themselves and have a stake in a political and
economic structure that is profoundly unfair and oppressive. And remember
that the military running things directly really isn’t that different from
what has been happening: Mubarak’s government was a largely military regime
(in civilian clothes) even before this. Mubarak, Vice President Suleiman and
so many others — including nearly all the governors — are career military
men. So if the military now takes over, how different is it?
The military ostensibly played a neutral role in recent weeks, and
protesters certainly feel much more sympathetic to the military than to the
police. But some elements of the army have been involved in repression of
pro-democracy protesters, including arrest and torture. The Guardian noted:
One of those detained by the army was a 23-year-old man who would only give
his first name, Ashraf, for fear of again being arrested. He was detained
last Friday on the edge of Tahrir Square carrying a box of medical supplies
intended for one of the makeshift clinics treating protesters attacked by
pro-Mubarak forces….
Ashraf was hauled off to a makeshift army post where his hands were bound
behind his back and he was beaten some more before being moved to an area
under military control at the back of the museum.
“They put me in a room. An officer came and asked me who was paying me to be
against the government. When I said I wanted a better government he hit me
across the head and I fell to the floor. Then soldiers started kicking me.
One of them kept kicking me between my legs,” he said. “They got a bayonet
and threatened to rape me with it. Then they waved it between my legs. They
said I could die there or I could disappear into prison and no one would
ever know. The torture was painful but the idea of disappearing in a
military prison was really frightening.”
That kind of thing happened to a lot of people, and those millions of brave
Egyptians who went to the streets were protesting not just against Mubarak
but against the police state as a whole. May Mubarak’s resignation mark a
milestone toward their goal — and I think it is, but it’s not the end of the
journey. And let’s hope that the United States makes absolutely clear that
it stands for full democracy, not just for some kind of false stability that
derives from authoritarianism. The Obama administration missed the boat in
the last few weeks, but I thought yesterday’s speech and statement by
President Obama marked an improvement. Let’s hope it continues. May
Mubarak’s resignation mark a new beginning — in Egypt, and also in wiser
American policy toward Egypt and the Arab world.
The Pharaoh Refuses to Go
11 February 2011 By Nicholas Kristof New York
Times
President Hosni Mubarak just appeared on television and didn’t step down, as
many had thought he would. Instead, he insisted that he would stay in office
through the September elections. He offered cosmetic changes and promises of
reform down the road. For example, he said that he would lift the state of
emergency…down the road…sometime when the time is right. He seems to have
delegated some powers to his vice president, Omar Suleiman, while remaining
in office himself.
This is of course manifestly unacceptable to the Egyptian people. Mubarak’s
speech was a striking reminder of the capacity of dictators to fool
themselves and see themselves as indispensable. If he thinks that his softer
tone will win any support, he’s delusional. As he was speaking, the crowd in
Tahrir was shouting “Irhal!” or “Go!” And the Egyptian state media — from
television to Al Ahram, the dominant newspaper — have been turning against
Mubarak, so he’s losing control even of his own state apparatus. An Arab
friend of mine who has met Mubarak many, many times describes him as “a
stubborn old man,” and that seems exactly the problem right now. Suleiman
just spoke as well, praising Mubarak and asking the youth of Egypt to go
home and stop watching satellite television. Only possible conclusion: he’s
delusional, too. The regime seems so out of touch as to be almost suicidal.
It was interesting that Mubarak tried to push the nationalism button and
blame outside forces (meaning the United States) for trying to push him out.
That won’t succeed, but it’s actually beneficial to America, giving us
credit for siding with people power that I don’t think we actually deserve.
My guess is that we’ll see massive demonstrations in many cities — not just
Cairo — on Friday, a traditional day for demonstrations. In effect, Mubarak
and Suleiman have just insulted the intelligence of the Egyptian people —
and they will respond. The regime has managed to galvanize the protesters,
and it may be committing suicide. And I worry a bit that somewhere or other
we may see violence. People are getting frustrated, and police are scared.
One crucial question is what the military does next. It is sending signals
of impatience, and there are hints that a coup could come. Senior generals
have a huge stake in continuing the existing system, and at this point
Mubarak is becoming an obstacle to their retaining their privileges. But in
an Egyptian context, what would a coup mean? Mubarak’s regime is a largely
military one (in civilian clothes): Mubarak, Vice President Omar Suleiman
and so many others — including nearly all the governors — are career
military men. So if the military now takes over, how different will the
system be?
Another question: what should the United States do? At the end of the day,
Washington has relatively little influence, but its messaging will be hugely
important. And the flaw with our messaging has been that we’ve been too
wishy-washy, and we’ve been perceived as supporting a slow and gradual
transition under Suleiman — rather than siding with democracy. I hope that
we will speak out more clearly (and Obama’s speech today was a step in that
direction) to show respect for popular aspirations and against any kind of
crackdown. One of the big questions in the next 48 hours is whether the
authorities will crack down — and we should always be very clearly on the
record against any use of violence.
To me, this speech is a reminder of how entrenched the powers that be are in
Egypt. They have their entire way of life — and billions of dollars — at
risk, and they’re not going to go easily. My hunch is that at some point
they’ll throw Mubarak overboard, but even then they may then seek to
maintain Mubarakism without Mubarak. This could get uglier. It will
certainly be historic.
Protest impact on Emirates
10 February 2010
Emirates Airline says that it has seen a significant drop in its global
business since the start of the unrest last month in Tunisia and Egypt.
The Dubai-based carrier's president, Tim Clark, told reporters in Washington
DC today that Emirates' system-wide load factor has been averaging 75% in
recent weeks, compared to a typical 81% to 82% during this time of the year.
Emirates is the largest airline in the Middle East and is one of the largest
carriers in all the markets which have witnessed political instability in
recent weeks, including Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen.
Clark did not quantify the financial impact but acknowledges the instability
in the region will dent Emirate's financials for its current fiscal year,
which ends on 31 March 2011. "It's a pity because it's been a very strong
year for us," he says.
That is one way to downplay the annual bonus!
However, Emirates remains profitable. Clark points out that every year there
is typically "two traumas" to work around. This fiscal year has been no
different with the ash cloud crisis in Europe impacting revenues at the
beginning of the year and now the instability in the Middle East and North
Africa having an impact in the final quarter. In April Emirates estimated
the European flight disruption caused by the ash crisis was costing the
carrier $10 million per day.
Clark says even if demand remains depressed in April in some markets the
carrier by then will have responded by adjusting capacity across its network
to match the new demand picture.
Emirates has already reduced capacity in several of the affected markets
including Egypt and Tunisia. But Clark says it takes six weeks to two months
to absorb what has happened, fully analyse the impact and reallocate
capacity.
Clark says several other markets have sufficient demand to absorb additional
capacity. He points out that Emirates overall has "a robust network" and
always uses the diversity of its network to work around crises in certain
markets or regions.
Clark says Emirates in particular carries a lot of Chinese tourists to the
region and this traffic has completely "disappeared". He says business
travel to the affected countries also has dried up.
However, he is not concerned at all about the prospect of the unrest
spreading to Emirates' home country. "I'd be very, very surprised if
anything happened like this in the UAE," Clark says.
New A380 business class unveiled on Koh Lanta
9 February 2010
Picture:
http://twitter.com/travelhappy
Scoring a quick single on Emirates
9 February 2011
Emirates airline has said that it is investigating alleged
misbehaviour by a New Zealand cricket player aboard an Emirates flight.
An Emirates spokesperson in a statement said, “Emirates can confirm that it
is looking into an alleged incident on EK413 from Sydney to Dubai. Emirates
places the highest importance on the flight experience of its passengers and
any behaviour which may impact that is taken very seriously.”
Meanwhile Black Caps team manager Dave Currie says reports of
a player behaving in a "lewd" manner toward a woman on an international
flight were not factual and the matter would not be taken any further.
A passenger on the flight between Sydney and Dubai told Newstalk ZB radio
that the incident involved a Black Caps player and a woman he met on the
plane. The passenger described it as the "worst possible sort of lewd
behaviour", the station reported.
Currie confirmed that the player was Tim Southee but said he had
investigated and established the reports were not factually correct.
The New Zealand team version is that Mr Southee met a female
passenger and struck up a conversation They spent a bit of time and had a
drink together on the plane. The at some stage the female passenger came to
his seat and perhaps spent a maximum of 30 seconds with Tim and there may
well have been a kiss on the cheek, but that was it.
The team's media manager, Ellery Tappin, said he was
"dumbfounded" by the amount of attention the reports had garnered. "We've
done a thorough investigation and found absolutely nothing substantial, so
are incredibly surprised by the amount of attention it's generated and are
all a bit dumbfounded, to be perfectly honest, about how this has
escalated," he said.
Emirates seems to be taking the media noise a bit more
seriously and when asked if it had received any complaints, the spokesperson
said, “It is not necessary that a passenger should register a complaint. We
have our in-flight staff who would have witnessed the incident.”
The team is heading to India to play in the 2011 cricket world cup starting
on February 19 and being played in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Online people are having more fun with this story: "Finally, someone in the
NZ cricket team managed to score a quick single" while someone else joked
"Black Cap had sex on a plane? I don't believe it. None of them can stay in
longer than a minute."
No smoke without fire. A sports team drinking on an airplane
can be very little fun for the other passengers. Emirates is investigating.
That can only mean that some of the other passengers were distressed. And
the very early protests of innocence from Southee and his management may
prove to be misguided.
Maybe they were just taking advantage of Emirates companion
fares for a minimum of two people to travel together!
Thai Tiger going nowhere soon
9 February 2011
The low-cost joint venture airline between Thai Airways
International and Tiger Airways is likely to begin operations only in this
year's third quarter at the earliest, putting it at least six months behind
schedule.
A senior Thai executive says ThaiTiger Airways is still awaiting approval
from the government to start flights, and the airline is still ironing out
details on the operational level.
The two partners had said earlier it plans to begin flights by March 2011,
operating services out of Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport.
The new airline's launch route will likely be a service between Bangkok and
Singapore. A route already served Tiger, Jetstar and Air Asia as well as a
number of full servive carriers.
Tiger's spokesman says both airlines are still committed to the joint
venture, but acknowledges that the new airline is not likely to begin
operations in this quarter.
However, he adds that the delay is due to the wait for Thai government
approval. "If the approvals are in place, we can begin in March," he adds.
Thai will have a 49.9% share in ThaiTiger, with another 1.1% to be held by
employees of the new joint venture. Tiger will own 39% of the new airline,
and Declan Ryan's holding company Ryan Asia will own the remaining 10%.
No real surprise, sadly.
The wrong side of history
9 February 2011
The protests in Cairo and across Egypt entered their 15th day
today. And President Mubarak is still in office and appears more determined
by the day to remain there.
He is trying to show that business continues as normal and was helped hugely
yesterday by a visit from Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, the Minister of Foreign
Affairs, who became the first senior international diplomat to meet the
leader since protests to his 30-year rule began two weeks ago.
Sheikh Abdullah's visit to Cairo showed "extraordinary political support"
for Egypt, an Arab diplomat in the UAE said, in light of the security
situation in the country.
How sad this is. There is much to admire about the UAE but
such a show of support for a failed regime is a misjudgment.
The USA is similarly trying to seek a suitable response to
the uprising in Egypt but it has not shown such brazen support for its
former ally.
Clearly the USA is under pressure from insistent and
persuasive voices among Egypt’s neighbors.
Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have all pressed
the United States not to give up too hastily on Mubarak. They have told the
USA not to throw its weight behind the democracy movement in a way that
could further destabilize the region.
But what does the USA stand for if it is not for the voice of
the people; the very democracy on which the USA was founded and which
underpins her constitution.
While each country has its own concerns, all worry that a sudden, chaotic
change in Egypt would destabilize the region or, in the Arab nations, even
jeopardize their own leaders, many of whom are also autocrats facing restive
populations.
And of course these autocrats have also been staunch US
allies. Which is why the USA appears to have embraced a transition process
in Egypt that does not demand Mr. Mubarak’s immediate departure. But is Vice
President Suleiman any advocate of change? He is a long time ally of Mubarak
committed to the status quo. Mr. Suleiman is also a longstanding Egyptian
contact for the Israelis, and as a 2008 cable made public by WikiLeaks
showed, he has been the Israeli government’s preferred successor to Mr.
Mubarak for several years.
On Sunday Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi, the UAE's defense
chief, emphasized to the US President the need for “stability” in Egypt,
according to a statement put out by the United Arab Emirates after the call.
The crown prince “also stressed the necessity that the period of transition
in Egypt should be smooth and organized through the framework of national
institutions,” it said.
Gulf countries including the UAE have expressed concern over the threat to
Egypt's stability; there are allegations of "foreign" meddling in the
country. Egypt however is too important on the world stage for the rest of
the world to sit back and watch a potential civil war. The presence of the
international media and active intervention by Arab and Western leaders has
probably helped avoid a military crack down and far worse loss of life.
"The UAE rejects all foreign attempts to interfere in the internal affairs
of Egypt," Sheikh Mohammed said on Monday in comments published by WAM, the
state news agency. He stressed that the transition in Egypt should be smooth
and organised. But is not being the first foreign leader to sit down with
Mubarak since the protests started interfering in exactly the way that the
UAE has rejected?
Build a Wall
8 February 2011 -
The Economist
"The Chinese Communist Party’s Publicity Department (or
Propaganda Department, a closer rendering of the Chinese) is adept at
controlling news from abroad that might inflame sentiment at home. As
communism collapsed in Eastern Europe 20 years ago, it kept all but the
barest news out of the domestic media, jammed foreign broadcasts and ordered
vigilance over fax machines.
In response to the unrest in Egypt, the department has apparently instructed
the Chinese media to use only dispatches sent by the official news agency,
Xinhua, and either to bury news of events there or play up aspects that show
the costs of turmoil. Reporting the travails of stranded Chinese tourists,
or the government’s noble attempts to rescue them, is fine, but sympathy
with the protesters is taboo. The department’s instructions to the media
are, as usual, a secret, but their effect is clear.
The party has also been busy trying to control the internet. Twitter has
been blocked in China since 2009, but home-grown versions are hugely
popular. Anyone trying to follow postings by users with an interest in
Egypt, however, might struggle. Merely searching for the word “Egypt” in
Sina Weibo, one of China’s leading Twitter-like services, produces a warning
that “according to the relevant laws, regulations and policies, the search
results have not been displayed”. On Baidu, a big news portal, a prominent
list of “hot search terms” includes “the return of compatriots stranded in
Egypt”, but nothing else.
Chinese news reports have briefly mentioned the disruption of internet and
mobile-phone services in Egypt. They have not, however, discussed China’s
pioneering use of such techniques to impede the mobilisation of crowds. Use
of the internet and mobile phones for international calls and text-messaging
was cut off for months in the far-western region of Xinjiang after ethnic
clashes there in 2009.
On February 1st the party’s main mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, relegated
Egyptian politics to five terse paragraphs on page three but published a
full page of articles under the headline, “The Internet is Warming the Whole
of Society”. The internet, one scholar was quoted as saying, is a “great
promoter of social change”. The party knows that all too well."
Be careful with that wok!
8 February 2011
The AFP is happily reporting that a Hong Kong adult channel
is set to debut a cooking show headlined by a nude host who will prepare
Cantonese dishes wearing a transparent apron -- an apparent bid to encourage
more men to cook.
This sound's much more fun than Ching's Kitchen on BBC
entertainment where a nice Chinese girl with a posh English accent keeps
saying "great".
In Hong Kong host Flora Cheung will start each 30-minute show shopping for
fresh ingredients in the city's famous wet markets; she will undress once
she is back in the privacy of her studio kitchen. And then she will cook.
Hope she is careful with splashing oil from the hot wok!
Cheung, who admits she has never worked in a restaurant kitchen, said she
hopes the risque show will draw more men into the kitchen. The first episode
is set to air later this month.
The host will be wearing a tailor-made, transparent apron but promises that
it will not leave much to the imagination.
"It covers pretty much everything but hides nothing," she was quoted as
saying.
Producer Jesse Au told the paper that the show may spawn similar offerings
with nude hosts cooking up a range of Asian cuisines: "This could be an
endless series if it proves popular."
Flip flop Blatter
7 February 2011
I do wish that he would make his mind up. The 2022 World Cup
in Qatar will be played in the summer as originally planned and will not be
co-hosted with neighbouring countries, FIFA president Sepp Blatter has now
said.
Blatter said there were no plans to stage a winter World Cup and any request
to do so would have to come from the Qatari hosts who have already said they
plan to stage the event in summer.
"Everything is settled now for summer and with all 64 matches in the
territory of Qatar," he told the BBC in an interview.
Qatar were chosen as hosts in December, winning a contest also featuring
Australia, Japan, South Korea and United States. Their bid was based on a
summer World Cup using air-conditioned stadiums to combat the desert heat.
Despite this, there has been wide support for a winter World Cup with Franz
Beckenbauer and UEFA president Michel Platini backing a January-February
tournament.
Platini also suggested a "World Cup in the Gulf" with Qatar sharing matches
with neighbouring countries.
Blatter seems to have dismissed the views of Herr Beckenbauer and Monsieur
Platini. Blatter denies supporting a winter tournament himself and said he
was impartial, although he feared a winter tournament could clash with that
year's Winter Olympics.
Dubai Airports to focus on existing terminals
7 February 2011 Khaleej Times
I thought this was interesting although it has a very low
profile in the local media. But the Khaleej Times is reporting that
Dubai’s new Al Maktoum International Airport is likely to see another delay
in opening of its passenger terminal, which is set to open in October this
year.
The new reasoning is that Dubai Airports, the operator of the two airports
in the emirate, is fully focused on its existing passenger terminals as
demand is increasing every day. It cannot focus on growth at two airports at
the same time. Or it cannot afford to develop both at the same time.
Last month the operator announced its full year 2010 results that revealed a
15.3 per cent growth in passenger demand over 2009. It is estimated that the
airport will handle 52.2 million passengers by the end of 2011 with 11 per
cent growth, according to the operator.
The cargo terminal of Al Maktoum International Airport has been operational
since June last year; originally a passenger terminal was to be opened in
March 2011. It was postponed to October and now Dubai Airports hints at
another possible delay.
“We are focusing on our growth here [Dubai International airport] and reason
for that is because the growth is so strong and exceeding our expectations,”
said Paul Griffths the CEO of Dubai Airports. Why would it exceed
expectations. Just the additions to the Emirates fleet will drive most of
that growth if the planes are full.
Growth will be driven by a projected 10 per cent increase in
Emirates passenger numbers and an anticipated doubling of flydubai traffic
in 2011 as both airlines continue to expand their respective fleets and
networks, according to Dubai Airports.
Dubai Airports says that before the end of the decade passenger numbers will
approach 90 million making Dubai International the busiest airport in the
world in terms of international passenger traffic.
Dubai International airport is undergoing a massive development for its
Terminal 2 and a new Concourse 3. Concourse 3, set to become the world’s
first dedicated A380 facility, will boost capacity from the current 60
million passengers annually to 75 million, which, when combined with other
facility enhancements and operational efficiencies will boost capacity to 90
million by 2018.
They will need to make a better job of spreading arrivals and
departures throughout the day and in maximising available air space and ATC
on routes into and out of Dubai. It may not be Dubai that is the issue, but
capacity of air routes over countries like Iran, Iraq and India.
The Tim Hortons' news gets better
6 February 2011
We already know that Tim Hortons, Canada's largest restaurant
chain, will open this year in Abu Dhabi. But the deal is bigger than that.
Tim Hortons has signed a deal with Dubai-based Apparel Group to open up to
120 restaurants in the UAE and wider Gulf region.
The local Dubai media calls them restaurants. The reality is
they are coffee shops that sell lots of doughnuts together will a soup and
sandwich for lunch. They are significantly cheaper than premium brands such
as Starbucks and Krispy Kreme which is probably why they are so loved in
Canada where they are something of an institution.
The properties will be developed and operated by Apparel in the UAE, Qatar,
Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, Don Schroeder, CEO of Tim Hortons confirmed.
"There is an opportunity over the long term to explore international
opportunities and seed the Tim Hortons’ brand in various markets outside of
North America," Schroeder said.
The Ontario-based company, which has a few stores in Britain and at some
military bases in the Middle East, had over 3,000 restaurants in Canada.
Apparel Group, which operates brands like Tommy Hilfiger and Aeropostale,
has over 500 stores in about fourteen countries.
Magnificent men in their flying machines
6 February 2011
A day out at the Al Ain air show is like a trip back in
history to the barnstorming shows of the pioneer flyers in the USA or
revisiting the old movie - "Those Magnificent Men in their flying machines."
This is the friendly air show. It is not a big
commercial sales event. It is not a trade show. It is for people who love to
fly and the rest of us who like to watch and dream.
Staged at the Al Ain International Airport, the show featured
a number of acts and aircraft. Although it appears that some shows were
cancelled on the Saturday when there was a near 90 minute break in flying
mid afternoon.
There was a solo display from a Mirage 2000 of the UAE air
force which excited the crowd. Formation flying came from the national air
force squadrons of Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the form of The Saudi Hawks
and fabulous Turkish Stars.
Blue Voltig fly two powered gliders in a nearly silent sky
ballet. Lovely to watch.
Team Viper, the world's only Hawker Hunter supersonic fighter jet display
squadron flew their three plane formation but did not show their mock ground
formation attack (although if you read the local press you would think this
was displayed as well). Middle East debutants the Baltic Bees from Latvia
took off but decided not to fly their display on Sunday - maybe it was too
windy. There were single aerobatics from Skip Stewart, the wing-walkers from
the Scandinavian Airshow and another Hunter, Missdemeanor.
The show finished with Abu Dhabi's “Flying Falcon”, Hannes
Arch, who showed his new “Rhythm & Air” routine, which made its global
premier at the show. This rather weird show was at the end of the day; when
the sun was setting, it was cool, and many guests had left for home.
The show combined music, a ballerina and
Arch's Abu Dhabi-branded Zivko Edge 540 aircraft.
And in the finale, the plane came across the runway
and up onto the stage, bringing it to a halt close behind a fire-coat
cloaked actress with flaming wings.
One of the world’s foremost aerobatic stars, Arch is a global ambassador for
the show organiser, Abu Dhabi Tourism Authority (ADTA) and a former winner
of the Red Bull Air Race World Championship.
Arch was supported by leading experimental music act, NOISIA, whose music
was produced using several unique “sound sculptures” made from stainless
steel, and Cellist Irmi Vukovich, who has starred for the world-famous
Vienna Symphonic Orchestra.
Taking centrestage was the beautiful Karina Sarkissova, principal ballet
dancer of the Vienna State Opera, who lit up the stage with her graceful
moves that combined dance and classical ballet.
My highlight of the day - the fabulous Turkish Star with a
terrific display in their eight Thunderbolt P-5s accompanied by the most
exuberant of commentaries.
There are pictures here.
And a link to the
Turkish Stars here
Dubai's property woes
6 February 2011
Even a smart Dubai address cannot save an onwer from Dubai's
contiuninig real estate woes; Selling prices are now as low AED704 ($191)
per square foot, a far cry from the more spectacular prices of over AED2300
($626) in 2007. That means that since the start of the property crash in
late 2008, prices have now fallen by nearly 70% in some parts of the Palm.
As if this wasn’t enough bad news, nearly all 10 planned
hotel properties on the Palm archipelago have seen setbacks due to the
global economic downturn. Fairmount Hotels & Resorts, Rixos Hotels,
Kempinski, Movenpick Hotels & Resorts and Sofitel have all pushed back their
launch dates by an average of two years when compared to initial opening
dates, according PricewaterhouseCoopers advisory partner Mohammad Dahmash.
The hardest hit Palm Jumeirah project, however, is the equally iconic US$600
million Trump International Tower. Not only has the work stopped but the
site has been levelled with no re-start date given.
The oversupply of residential property in Dubai is predicted to peak in 2012
with vacancies of between 25 and 28%, according to the latest real estate
report by Landmark Advisory.
At the same time distressed sales are leading to accelerates price declines,
according to the Dubai and Abu Dhabi Real Estate Report for the third
quarter of 2010 from the consultancy.
‘As prices are falling faster than rents, this is pushing up yields,’ said
Jesse Downs, director of research and advisory services at Landmark
Advisory.
‘This is positive for the market as higher yields are required to attract
investors wary of the weak market fundamentals and perceived downside risk.
At the moment, financing remains limited, which means investors continue to
dictate market trends,’ she explained.
The report found that sale volumes slowed in the second quarter, compared to
the first. Prices for villas dropped by 5% and apartments fell by 5.8% as a
result of limited buyers and tighter lending restrictions.
In neighbouring Abu Dhabi quality issues could lead to a rapid reshuffling
of the market as the new higher quality supply is delivered, the report also
points out. Downs expects only 20% of high end properties in the pipeline
will meet the standard, which will have a knock on effect on prices for
mid-range homes.
‘However, we predict that this trend will be temporary, with performance
weakening and not recovering once the truly high end developments are
delivered,’ she added.
In Dubai and Abu Dhabi rental costs declined across the board with Dubai
villas down 4.4% and apartments down 5.8% during the quarter. Abu Dhabi
rents dropped by 11%, a sharp decline compared with 3% in the first quarter
of the year.
‘These declines are supply driven following new on-island deliveries such as
Khalidiyah Palace, Al Aryam Tower, Silver and Wave Tower. Static sales
prices and declining rents have resulted in further yields compression,
currently at 5.1%, and we anticipate that yields will continue to compress
in the short term,’ Downs explained.
The figures confirm those released by consultants Colliers International
earlier this month which showed house prices fell by 4% in the second
quarter of the year compared with an increase of 2% in the first three
months of 2010.
The consultancy is predicting that around 33,000 new units will be released
onto the market by the end of the year, less than its original estimate of
41,000 due to project delays or rescheduling.
‘There are already more than 340,000 residential properties in Dubai with an
average occupancy rate of 87%, with further declines anticipated,’ said
Colliers International’s regional director, Ian Albert.
‘The market simply cannot absorb the additional supply unless the population
grows and/or the release of stock is slowed down,’ he added.
Albert also warned that a dramatic drop in rents made home ownership a less
attractive option for investors in terms of income generation, another
factor that was weakening demand.
Deadly clash on Thailand Cambodia border
4 February 2010
Reuters and other media agencies are reporting that Thai and Cambodian
soldiers exchanged fire in a two-hour border clash on Friday that killed two
Cambodian soldiers and a Thai villager, the latest in an ancient feud over
land surrounding a 900-year-old Hindu temple.
The number of dead and injured is reported differently by the
Thai and Cambodian media.
Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong said Cambodia would file a complaint
with the U.N. Security Council, accusing Thailand of invading Cambodian
territory.
Both sides accused each other of firing first in the 4.6-sq-km (two-sq-mile)
disputed area around Preah Vihear, a jungle-clad escarpment claimed by both
countries and scene of deadly, sporadic clashes in recent years.
Several Thai soldiers were also wounded and four Thai villages were
evacuated, Thai media reported. Five Thai soldiers were captured, said army
spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd. He has subsequently denied that any Thai
troops were captured.
The clash comes three days after a Cambodian court handed down jail terms of
six and eight years to two Thai nationalists found guilty of trespassing and
spying in the border region, a verdict that has angered some in Thailand.
Shelling began at about 3 p.m. (8:00 a.m. British time) and continued into
early evening. Artillery shells landed at several villages on the Thai side,
setting at least four houses on fire, witnesses said.
A Thai police colonel, Chatchawan Kaewchandee, said at least one villager
was killed during the shelling. "We found one body of a male villager and
there might be more," he said.
This will put even further pressure on Thai Prime Minister
Abhisit whose restraint when provoked by Thai nationalists has been notable.
The fighting was near a temple known as Preah Vihear in Cambodia and Khao
Phra Viharn in Thailand, which sits on land that forms a natural border and
has been a source of tension for generations.
The International Court of Justice awarded it to Cambodia in 1962 but the
ruling did not determine the ownership of the scrub next to the ruins,
leaving considerable scope for disagreement.
The fighting coincided with meetings in Cambodia between Thai Foreign
Minister Kasit Piromya and his Cambodian counterpart aimed at reducing
tensions.
How to maximise DXB - by making JXB work
4 February 2011
Emirates Airline complains regularly that its growth is
constrained by capacity issues at Dubai's international airport.
The issue is not about parking spaces - there is plenty of
room at the airport, provide passengers accept being bussed in from remote
stands.
The problem is that Emirates uses Dubai as a hub; it flies
passengers in from Europe and out to Asia, Africa and Australia, and vice
versa. The airline needs to minimise transit times, so arrivals are at
capacity twice a day, between 11pm and 1am - and again between 5am and 7am.
With departures peeking between 2.00am and 3.30am and again between 7.30am
and 10.00am. This is simplistic as there is another departure bank in the
early afternoon to Europe but there is plenty of capacity at that time.
There are also ATC limitations. The UAE ATC appears able to
only handle a certain volume of incoming flights through the existing air
routes and departures are throttled by capacity through Oman ATC and onto
Indian airspace.
There is of course a new five runway 120million assenger a
year airport being built in Jebel Ali. But financing this construction post
the global financial crisis must be a significant problem for Dubai and
construction has slowed down dramatically.
But there seems to be plenty that Dubai can still do to
assist its home town airline: JXB, the Jebel Ali airport has a single
runway; it has cargo facilities; it has an MRO for business jets and a small
passenger terminal is under construction:
So immediately Dubai should move as much of the following
traffic to JXB as possible:
All private jets and business jet operations
And cargo flight that has little or no connection to DXB
traffic
The operations of Fly Dubai, once the JXB passenger terminal is finished.
Sorry.
Other low cost point to point operators such as Air India
Express, Bahrain Air and Air Blue.
I have landed in a business jet in Dubai in the late night
rush hour. We were sandwiched between 777s and clogging up airspace!
At relatively low cost Dubai could make JXB an effective low cost airfield.
Reduce the landing fees as an incentive and offer low cost handling services
to attract operators. As there is no rail connection immediately introduce a
convenient, frequent and comfortable bus service connecting to the Metro red
line.
It will be years, maybe a decade, before Emirates can move to JXB. For the
moment the airline is busy expanding at DXB with concourse 3 due for
completion in 2013. Emirates could not move to JXB until terminal facilities
exist for 90 million passengers a year with a high speed rail like into
Dubai and also connecting Abu Dhabi. None of this work appears to have
started yet.
The continuing woes of Dubai Aerospace
4 February 2011
Boeing has lost an order for 32 737 jets, valued at about
$2.3 billion at list prices, from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd, reducing
the leasing company's backlog for 737s to 35, according to a monthly update
yesterday on Boeing’s website, compared with 67 as of December.
Boeing’s weekly order report showed 32 orders for the
single-aisle aircraft had been canceled, without identifying the buyer.
Dubai Aerospace canceled plans last year to buy 47 jets from Boeing and
Airbus SAS.
Dubai Aerospace was set up in 2006, entering the leasing
market during the peak of an air-travel boom, with the aim of becoming one
of the world’s biggest airplane lessors. Airlines and leasing companies
typically don’t pay list prices.
Now it is Qantas against Emirates
4 February 2011
Qantas boss Alan Joyce is the latest airline CEO to express
concern it the growth of the middle east airlines as he called yesterday for
a moratorium on new international flights into Australia. He argues that the
flood of new airlines has crippled Qantas International.
Qantas state that from 2003 to 2009, international capacity to Australia
increased by 39 per cent, but inbound passengers increased by just 10 per
cent.
This shows the market didn't expand much. The new airlines, particularly
those from the Middle East, were simply taking market share, as evidenced by
Qantas's fall from 35 per cent of the international market to 20 per cent.
Qantas is losing money on its international routes and it is looking to the
government to erect barriers around its market.
The counter argument is that Australian consumers are better
served by more competition.
Singaporeans told to breed in the rabbit year
3 February 2011
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has urged Singaporeans to have
more babies in the new Year of the Rabbit, saying additional children would
bring "more joy" to families.
Lee, a father of four, said in his Lunar New Year message that getting
Singaporeans to produce more babies has been a challenge but he hoped more
would be born during the Rabbit year.
Singapore's resident fertility rate -- the number of babies born per woman
-- fell to an all-time low of 1.16 in 2010 during the Year of the Tiger.
While immigrants have filled in the population shortfall, "we also need
Singaporeans to produce enough babies to replace ourselves, and that has
proved extremely challenging," he said.
"I hope more couples will start or add to their families in the Year of the
Rabbit. Chinese New Year is the time for families to come together in
celebration, and more babies can mean only more joy in the years to come."
Local-born Singaporeans must maintain a clear majority in the population mix
so they can "set the tone of our society and uphold our core values and
ethos," the prime minister said.
Singapore the government has been running a matchmaking
service for several years, especially trying to get the island republic's
more nerdish graduates together, with events like ''Love is in the Aisles''
in the local supermarkets of the French-owned Carrefour chain.
It is a problem of Singapore's own creation. Women enjoy
equal learning and employment opportunities; often filling key roles in many
organisations. This has been very good news for equality in the workplace;
but the high cost of living, from condominiums to cars, has meant that most
couple require two incomes.
And hard working, tired, stressed parents will delay having a
family and will have smaller families.
Singapore currently has a population of more than five million, a quarter of
whom are foreigners
Canadian favourite Tim Hortons to open shop in UAE
3 February 2011
The first Tim Hortons location was opened in 1964 in Hamilton, Ont. and has
since grown to Canada's largest coffee shop chain with over 2,200 locations.
Canada's beloved coffee and food chain, Tim Hortons, will open its first UAE
branch at the capital's newest mall.
The coffee shop will take pride of place at Mushrif Mall when it opens its
doors for the first time on April 5.
The store will be 1,200 sq ft and will have the full complement of brand
favourites, including the "double-double" combination of double cream,
double sugar.
"We have already noticed a lot of excitement and we are looking forward to
hosting Tim Hortons' here," said the deputy mall manager Siddharth Khanna.
The branch is the only one of its kind in the Middle East, although the
coffee is available to members of the military at a Canadian Armed Forces
base in Afghanistan.
Around 80 per cent of the mall's shop spaces are currently leased out and a
grand opening will be staged when the remaining units are filled, said Mr
Khanna.
Emirates delivery plans for 2011/2012
3 February 2011
Emirates Airline has told Air Transport World that it plans
to take delivery of 14 new aircraft in its upcoming fiscal year beginning
April 1, and retain four others it had planned to remove, owing to strong
traffic demand. The carrier currently operates 15 Airbus A380s, a number
that will grow dramatically as deliveries ramp up.
“We [will] start constant delivery of the remaining 75 A380s from September
2011,” Divisional SVP-Commercial Operations Worldwide Richard Vaughan told
ATW in Dubai. He said the A380s are still a kind of marketing tool and that
passengers will change their schedules to be able to fly on the aircraft.
Two of the airline's 14 full flight simulators at its training facility in
Dubai are dedicated to the type.
“The machine created a new landscape [for EK],” he observes. Vaughan
confirmed that EK has no plans to install a different cabin configuration
for high-density routes such as to India. However, I suspect that a two
class A380 will 600 plus passengers is inevitable and is in reality good
business.
Emirates is constrained by capacity issues at its home base during peak
hours. This is almost inevitable for a hub airport. Emirates says that the
strain should be eased somewhat when Concourse 3 is fully operational in
2013. It is dedicated to the A380 and will be capable of handling 25 of them
at once.
Commenting on the 2011 outlook, Vaughan said forward bookings
are looking good but adds that "the price of fuel could be a problem if it
rises to as much as $100 a barrel."
EK carried 27.5 million passengers in the 2009-10 fiscal year, 60% of them
changing aircraft in DXB. I am surprised that number is not higher. It may
reflect that many passengers have a short stopover in Dubai before flying to
their final destination. South America is one of the areas where EK believes
there is scope for further expansion, but no definite routes or dates have
been announced. It currently serves Sao Paulo Guarulhos. Copenhagen will
become EK's 27th European destination when it launches Aug. 1. The city of
Basra, Iraq, became its 110th destination Feb. 2. EK will add a tenth daily
flight to Australia in October, increasing the number of weekly offered
seats Down Under from 22,000 to 25,000 in each direction.
"When we open a new destination in Europe, we need to add capacity in places
such as the Far East and Africa to balance the network,” Vaughan explained.
Malawi To Make Farting In Public Illegal
3 February 2011
Here is one country that most teenagers will not be able to visit as Members
of Parliament in Malawi seek to approve a bill that will empower traditional
leaders to criminalise any person found to be ‘fouling air’.
The bill, which is likely to face opposition in Parliament, was formulated
to ease pressure on the courts in Malawi by allowing traditional leaders to
try minor civil and criminal cases within their areas of jurisdiction.
Among the offences that the traditional leaders will preside over will
include the prosecution of any person that is deemed to have fouled the air
to the discomfort of other people.
The bill reads in part: “Fouling air: Any person who voluntarily vitiates
the atmosphere in any place so as to make it noxious to the health of
persons in general, dwelling or carrying on business in the neighbourhood or
passing along a public way, shall be guilty of a misdemeanour.”
Finally, a government that isn’t afraid to take on the worst
of criminals.
Coup fever in Thailand
3 February 2011
Very day in the Thai press there is now speculation of another military coup
d'etat.
One argument is that the army is planning a coup because the
government had failed to solve the border disputes between Thailand and
Cambodia; another view is that it is because the Department of Special
Investigation had found that soldiers were responsible for a number of
deaths among the red shirt protesters.
A string of denials has come from the Army.
But coups are part of modern Thai history. There were coup
attempts in the early 1980s which tried to topple then prime minister Gen
Prem Tinsulanonda.
Then came 1991 when then prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan was ousted from
power.
Since then, no matter the denials, a military coup has always been a
possibility depending on the political situation.
And it was not unusual for the opposition to make coup
allegations.
On Sept 13, 2006, after returning from a three-day visit to Burma, Gen
Sonthi dismissed talk of a possible military coup which was fuelled by troop
movements in Bangkok. Gen Sonthi said at the time that people who had spread
the rumours had intended them as a warning to soldiers not to think about
staging a coup.
Yet on September 19, 2006 Prime Minister Thaksin was removed in a bloodless
military coup with tanks taking over Bangkok .
The Army sees its role as the key protector of the nation's sovereignty and
the crown. The public statements are not the reality. The reality is that
the Army will protect its own status and financial well-being.
Simplicity; A Puea Thai government would not be supported by
the Army.
Yet a general election is likely by the middle of the year.
Presumably this will only go ahead if there is certainty that the Democrats,
led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, together with its power hungry
coalition partners, will win.
By staging the 2006 coup the Army significantly weakened
Thaksin. The means justified the ends.
Without the coup it is likely that a Thaksin led or pro-Thaksin
party would still be in power today. Even after the coup his party won
the 2007 general election, but they were severely weakened by political bans
and court action.
The military probably does not need a coup for now; it already now wields
significant power behind the scenes. The Army has doubled its budget in the
last 5 years and still has the power to choose its favoured government.
All this could change with one hugely significant event that
cannot be talked about. And Thailand waits.
Terror in Tahrir
2 February 2011
New York Times By Nicholas Kristof
"Today President Mubarak seems to have decided to crack down on the
democracy movement, using not police or army troops but rather mobs of
hoodlums and thugs. I’ve been spending hours on Tahrir today, and it is
absurd to think of this as simply “clashes” between two rival groups. The
pro-democracy protesters are unarmed and have been peaceful at every step.
But the pro-Mubarak thugs are arriving in buses and are armed — and they’re
using their weapons.
In my area of Tahrir, the thugs were armed with machetes, straight razors,
clubs and stones. And they all had the same chants, the same slogans and the
same hostility to journalists. They clearly had been organized and briefed.
So the idea that this is some spontaneous outpouring of pro-Mubarak
supporters, both in Cairo and in Alexandria, who happen to end up clashing
with other side — that is preposterous. It’s difficult to know what is
happening, and I’m only one observer, but to me these seem to be organized
thugs sent in to crack heads, chase out journalists, intimidate the
pro-democracy forces and perhaps create a pretext for an even harsher
crackdown.
I have no idea whether this tactic will work. But the idea that President
Mubarak should make the case that he is necessary for Egypt’s stability by
unleashing violence and chaos on his nation’s youth — it’s a sad and
shameful end to his career. And I hope that the international community will
firmly denounce this kind of brutality apparently organized by the
government."
A cautionary tale for UAE photographers
2 February 2011
This is simply silly. And the UAE simply sends the wrong
message to visitors by taking this action.
The National newspaper reports today that two men were fined
this week for taking photos of the Yas Marina formula 1 circuit.
According to the National “The State Security Court rejected
the argument of two Bangladeshi residents of Abu Dhabi that the track – a
premier tourist attraction – was commonly photographed and there were no
signs prohibiting cameras.”
Prosecutors said there were signs warning people not to take pictures,
though the men dispute this. They received fines of AED 1,000 and AED 500.
The National says that the judgment is the latest in a series
of verdicts making it clear that the onus is on a photographer to establish
if taking photos is legal.
Yet it is only a few months ago that thousands of people were taking
pictures of the race track at the Abu Dhabi grand prix.
50,000 attended the Grand Prix, and we’d bet that most took a
few pictures. Will they be next in court?
Abu Dhabi wants to position itself as a major tourism
destination and has opened Ferrari World Abu Dhabi, new golf courses and
resorts. But are we allowed to photograph them?
It is unreasonable to invite the world to visit and then to
prosecute your visitors for taking pictures of the city's tourist
attractions.
Last week an Iranian tourist was sentenced last week to a month in prison
for taking photos of the Presidential Palace in Ras al Akhdar, near the
Corniche. He spent three months in jail before the verdict. The man told the
court he took photos of the palace out of "admiration of the structure of
the building" and that he did not have any "bad intentions".
"Photography is prohibited around the palace due to the
nature and sensitivity of the place as a presidential palace," Chief Justice
Shehab al Hammadi of the State Security Court said in his ruling. "It does
not avail the defendant to say he did not know. He should have inquired if
it was not forbidden to take photos."
An Indian man was arrested last month for taking photos and
videos of planes taking off, and of the control tower at Abu Dhabi
International Airport. He told prosecutors he was an amateur photographer
and wanted to keep the pictures as "commemorative photos". He said he did
not see a sign prohibiting photography. The judges ruled that his confession
was sufficient for a conviction, and he was fined Dh1,000.
You have been warned. Get permission to photograph anything that might be
remotely sensitive. Places where photography is automatically prohibited
include embassies, royal palaces and security facilities.
Egypt: Death throes of a dictatorship
1 February 2011
Robert Fisk in the Independent
The Egyptian tanks, the delirious protesters sitting atop
them, the flags, the 40,000 protesters weeping and crying and cheering in
Freedom Square and praying around them, the Muslim Brotherhood official
sitting amid the tank passengers. Should this be compared to the liberation
of Bucharest? Climbing on to an American-made battle tank myself, I could
only remember those wonderful films of the liberation of Paris. A few
hundred metres away, Hosni Mubarak's black-uniformed security police were
still firing at demonstrators near the interior ministry. It was a wild,
historical victory celebration, Mubarak's own tanks freeing his capital from
his own dictatorship.
In the pantomime world of Mubarak himself – and of Barack Obama and Hillary
Clinton in Washington – the man who still claims to be president of Egypt
swore in the most preposterous choice of vice-president in an attempt to
soften the fury of the protesters – Omar Suleiman, Egypt's chief negotiator
with Israel and his senior intelligence officer, a 75-year-old with years of
visits to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and four heart attacks to his credit. How
this elderly apparatchik might be expected to deal with the anger and joy of
liberation of 80 million Egyptians is beyond imagination. When I told the
demonstrators on the tank around me the news of Suleiman's appointment, they
burst into laughter.
Their crews, in battledress and smiling and in some cases clapping their
hands, made no attempt to wipe off the graffiti that the crowds had
spray-painted on their tanks. "Mubarak Out – Get Out", and "Your regime is
over, Mubarak" have now been plastered on almost every Egyptian tank on the
streets of Cairo. On one of the tanks circling Freedom Square was a senior
member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Beltagi.
Earlier, I had walked beside a convoy of tanks near the
suburb of Garden City as crowds scrambled on to the machines to hand oranges
to the crews, applauding them as Egyptian patriots. However crazed Mubarak's
choice of vice-president and his gradual appointment of a powerless new
government of cronies, the streets of Cairo proved what the United States
and EU leaders have simply failed to grasp. It is over.
Mubarak's feeble attempts to claim that he must end violence
on behalf of the Egyptian people – when his own security police have been
responsible for most of the cruelty of the past five days – has elicited
even further fury from those who have spent 30 years under his sometimes
vicious dictatorship. For there are growing suspicions that much of the
looting and arson was carried out by plainclothes cops – including the
murder of 11 men in a rural village in the past 24 hours – in an attempt to
destroy the integrity of the protesters campaigning to throw Mubarak out of
power. The destruction of a number of communications centres by masked men –
which must have been co-ordinated by some form of institution – has also
raised suspicions that the plainclothes thugs who beat many of the
demonstrators were to blame.
But the torching of police stations across Cairo and in Alexandria and Suez
and other cities was obviously not carried out by plainclothes cops. Late on
Friday, driving to Cairo 40 miles down the Alexandria highway, crowds of
young men had lit fires across the highway and, when cars slowed down,
demanded hundreds of dollars in cash. Yesterday morning, armed men were
stealing cars from their owners in the centre of Cairo.
Infinitely more terrible was the vandalism at the Egyptian National Museum.
After police abandoned this greatest of ancient treasuries, looters broke
into the red-painted building and smashed 4,000-year-old pharaonic statues,
Egyptian mummies and magnificent wooden boats, originally carved – complete
with their miniature crews – to accompany kings to their graves. Glass cases
containing priceless figurines were bashed in, the black-painted soldiers
inside pushed over. Again, it must be added that there were rumours before
the discovery that police caused this vandalism before they fled the museum
on Friday night. Ghastly shades of the Baghdad museum in 2003. It wasn't as
bad as that looting, but it was a most awful archeological disaster.
In my night journey from 6th October City to the capital, I had to slow down
when darkened vehicles loomed out of the darkness. They were smashed, glass
scattered across the road, slovenly policemen pointing rifles at my
headlights. One jeep was half burned out. They were the wreckage of the
anti-riot police force which the protesters forced out of Cairo on Friday.
Those same demonstrators last night formed a massive circle around Freedom
Square to pray, "Allah Alakbar" thundering into the night air over the city.
And there are also calls for revenge. An al-Jazeera television crew found 23
bodies in the Alexandria mortuary, apparently shot by the police. Several
had horrifically mutilated faces. Eleven more bodies were discovered in a
Cairo mortuary, relatives gathering around their bloody remains and
screaming for retaliation against the police.
Cairo now changes from joy to sullen anger within minutes. Yesterday
morning, I walked across the Nile river bridge to watch the ruins of
Mubarak's 15-storey party headquarters burn. In front stood a vast poster
advertising the benefits of the party – pictures of successful graduates,
doctors and full employment, the promises which Mubarak's party had failed
to deliver in 30 years – outlined by the golden fires curling from the
blackened windows of the party headquarters. Thousands of Egyptians stood on
the river bridge and on the motorway flyovers to take pictures of the
fiercely burning building – and of the middle-aged looters still stealing
chairs and desks from inside.
Yet the moment a Danish television team arrived to film exactly the same
scenes, they were berated by scores of people who said that they had no
right to film the fires, insisting that Egyptians were proud people who
would never steal or commit arson. This was to become a theme during the
day: that reporters had no right to report anything about this "liberation"
that might reflect badly upon it. Yet they were still remarkably friendly
and – despite Obama's pusillanimous statements on Friday night – there was
not the slightest manifestation of hostility against the United States. "All
we want – all – is Mubarak's departure and new elections and our freedom and
honour," a 30-year-old psychiatrist told me. Behind her, crowds of young men
were clearing up broken crash barriers and road intersection fences from the
street – an ironic reflection on the well-known Cairo adage that Egyptians
will never, ever clean their roads.
Mubarak's allegation that these demonstrations and arson – this combination
was a theme of his speech refusing to leave Egypt – were part of a "sinister
plan" is clearly at the centre of his claim to continued world recognition.
Indeed, Obama's own response – about the need for reforms and an end to such
violence – was an exact copy of all the lies Mubarak has been using to
defend his regime for three decades. It was deeply amusing to Egyptians that
Obama – in Cairo itself, after his election – had urged Arabs to grasp
freedom and democracy. These aspirations disappeared entirely when he gave
his tacit if uncomfortable support to the Egyptian president on Friday. The
problem is the usual one: the lines of power and the lines of morality in
Washington fail to intersect when US presidents have to deal with the Middle
East. Moral leadership in America ceases to exist when the Arab and Israeli
worlds have to be confronted.
And the Egyptian army is, needless to say, part of this equation. It
receives much of the $1.3bn of annual aid from Washington. The commander of
that army, General Tantawi – who just happened to be in Washington when the
police tried to crush the demonstrators – has always been a very close
personal friend of Mubarak. Not a good omen, perhaps, for the immediate
future.
So the "liberation" of Cairo – where, grimly, there came news last night of
the looting of the Qasr al-Aini hospital – has yet to run its full course.
The end may be clear. The tragedy is not over.
Dubai sandstorm
31 January 2011
Picture Mo Atia -
on Picasa - more here
Serious allegations that Thai government will ignore
31 January 2011
Robert Amsterdam has filed a criminal complaint with the
international criminal court against the Thai government for their crackdown
on “red shirt” protesters last spring.
The big problem is that the ICC has no jurisidiction over
Thailand which failed to sign the Rome agreement of 2002 (I think) which set
up the ICC. And that ironically was Thaksin's government.
The report, prepared by the red shirts’ Toronto-based legal team, was
filed with the International Criminal Court on Monday. It is asking the
court to investigate whether the Thai government’s actions constituted
crimes against humanity.
An estimated 90 people died and nearly 2,000 were wounded in clashes with
government forces after demonstrators took to the streets of Bangkok,
demanding Abhisit dissolve the legislature and hold elections.
The report alleges that Prime Minister Abhisit, along with senior government
and army officials, began drawing up plans for suppressing anti-government
protesters shortly after he assumed power in a military coup in 2006.
The plans included the construction of a full-scale mock-up of Rachadamnoen
Ave. — an upscale street sometimes known as Bangkok’s Champs Élysées — where
protesters were killed and injured last April 10, the report contends. The
mock-up, which was built at a training ground used by the 11th regiment of
the Thai army, included “killing zones.”
Thai military personnel, including snipers, rehearsed at the mock-up as
early as February 2007, the report alleges.
Immediately after the 2006 coup, the country’s leaders came to a consensus
that the red shirts would eventually rise up in protest, so they began
planning military countermeasures, says the report, which names 15 senior
Thai government, army and police officers.
The report was prepared on behalf of the National United
Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, the formal name for the red shirt
movement. Amsterdam has acknowledged that former Thai prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra, who was deposed in the 2006 coup, is helping to pay the
movement’s legal expenses.
As part of their application to have the court investigate the events of
last spring, the lawyers say they have affidavits from 88 witnesses who saw
soldiers shoot at unarmed civilians, including three nurses, in a Buddhist
temple on May 19, as well as affidavits from another 255 who witnessed the
deadly April 10 confrontations.
Many of the witnesses are quoted in the report.
The application also includes a statement from “Anonymous Witness No. 22” —
described as an amalgamation of testimony from several active-duty officers
in the Thai military, who would be in grave danger if their identities were
exposed, though the lawyers say they will provide all names to the court’s
prosecutors.
Amsterdam and Peroff argue that the ICC still has the power to investigate
Abhisit for possible crimes against humanity because he is a British
citizen, born in England on Aug. 3, 1964. The court has the authority to
investigate and prosecute people who are citizens of countries that are its
members, which the United Kingdom is.
While Thailand is not a member of the court, it is a member of the United
Nations, and the UN Security Council can ask the court to investigate the
government’s role in last spring’s demonstrations to determine whether it
amounted to criminal activity, the report says.
A special website has been set up to host videos and witness
testimonies of the dead and injured at
http://www.thaiaccountability.org
A copy of the ICC application and accompanying materials will
be published on
http://www.robertamsterdam.com/thailand
The report is the most detailed commentary on the April and
May protests. Abhisit's government will dismiss it. They will also dismiss
alleged foreign interference. But the allegations are substantial and demand
a response. The government's own investigations into the deaths, including
those of two journalists, have been feeble.
Fitness trainer dies on Emirates flight
31 January 2011
Avherald is reporting that a medical emergency was declared on Emirates
Airline flight EK-763 from Dubai to Johannesburg on 27th January after crew
noticed that a 21-year-old female passenger was unconscious. The operating
plane was A6-ECG.
The crew administered CPR and two doctors on board attempted to resuscitate
the passenger, who was a fitness trainer. The airplane continued its
approach and landing in Johannesburg.
An autopsy has been order by South African authorities to determine the
cause of death.
The family reported that there had been no indication of any health problem
prior to departure.
Deadlock in Egypt
31 January 2011
al-bab.com
"The Mubarak regime still doesn't get it. Nothing illustrates its attitude
more clearly than the decision yesterday to send F-16 warplanes roaring low
over the thousands gathered in Tahrir Square, in the expectation that they
would scurry away like frightened sheep.
Instead, the protesters stood their ground and chanted more loudly. Some of
them arranged their bodies to spell out the words "Down with Mubarak" – big
enough to be read from the air.
Meanwhile the regime's attempt to stop al-Jazeera's minute-by-minute TV
coverage failed miserably and the "night-time" curfew (starting at 4pm and
due to start at 3pm today) was widely ignored.
Today, in an effort to restore a semblance of normality, the police will be
back on the streets – reportedly with instructions not to confront the
protesters. They had been withdrawn over the weekend, apparently to
facilitate looting by the regime's thugs and provide the excuse for a
crackdown. That move was thwarted by the public, who organised their own
unofficial policing.
One of the most striking things about the uprising so far has been the
resourcefulness of the protesters and their determination. At the same time
though, on the other side, we have President Mubarak – equally implacable
and determined to stay put.
The result, for now, is deadlock. But the deadlock is not going to be broken
on the streets by the army or the police. At some point there will have to
be movement on the political front – and that is not going to happen
instantly. (It's worth repeating that the removal of Ben Ali in Tunisia took
four weeks; the Mubarak regime is a tougher nut to crack and the uprising
began less than a week ago.)
There seems to be widespread recognition, even by some of the regime
stalwarts, that Egypt is moving towards "transition". The argument,
basically, is whether it will be a transition supervised by Mubarak or not.
The protesters' fear is that a transition under Mubarak will merely bring a
change of faces without real change in the system they are protesting about.
As far as the protesters are concerned, that is a deal-breaker.
Mohamed ElBaradei offered the regime a carrot yesterday by putting himself
forward as "leader" of the opposition. Like him or not, this means a channel
is now open for dialogue if and when the regime is ready to talk – though on
the protesters' side that can't happen until Mubarak goes.
The US will also have to shift its stance. Obama, of course, is in a tricky
position. He talks about the "aspirations of the Egyptian people" while at
the same time having to contend with worried allies – especially Israel and
the Arab autocrats – and American "opinion-formers" who expect Egypt to turn
into an Islamic republic the moment Mubarak goes.
Over the weekend, Obama consulted the leaders of Turkey, Israel, Saudi
Arabia and Britain about their aspirations for Egypt – which at present seem
to be a higher American priority than the aspirations of the protesters
themselves.
The time has come for the US and other countries to stop making supportive
noises about the old tyrant (despite anything Israel may say to the
contrary) and to stop buying into Mubarak's favourite line of defence: après
moi, le déluge.
Yesterday,
an open letter to Obama – signed by a large number of American academics
involved with foreign policy and the Middle East – urges him to take a
firmer stand:
If you seek, as you said Friday, "political, social, and economic reforms
that meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people", your administration
should publicly acknowledge those reforms will not be advanced by Mubarak or
any of his adjutants ...
In order for the United States to stand with the Egyptian people it must
approach Egypt through a framework of shared values and hopes, not the prism
of geostrategy."
Oman uncovers UAE 'spy network'
31 January 2011
This is a strange story; of course it is denied by the UAE. The two
countries appear to have enjoyed close relations. So why strain relations
now?
The Oman News Agency says that it has broken up a ring of
spies placed by the United Arab Emirates, its neighbour. Authorities in Oman
have arrested spies “belonging to the state security forces of the UAE
targeting the regime in Oman and the mechanism of governmental and military
work”.
Why this is unusual is that public discussion of intelligence in the region
is rare; even rarer are accusations of spying operations between two
“fraternal” states, both of which are members of the Gulf Cooperation
Council.
Last November internet reports emerged that almost 20 Omani officials had
been arrested in the sultanate for allegedly spying on behalf of Abu Dhabi,
the capital of the UAE, but there had been no official confirmation until
Sunday.
The UAE foreign ministry denied knowledge on Sunday of the spy network,
which it said runs counter to its dealings with “brotherly” countries such
as Oman. In a statement carried by the UAE’s official news agency, the
ministry said it would cooperate with any investiation to uncover those
trying to damage bilateral relations.
Analysts said the UAE could nonetheless have been seeking intelligence on
Iran’s influence in the Arabian peninsula as Arab concerns about Iran’s
nuclear ambitions rise.
The WikiLeaks cables underlined the divide between Abu Dhabi’s hardline view
towards Tehran and a more conciliatory approach favoured by Oman, which has
been negotiating with Iran over importing natural gas.
“The UAE is likely interested in Omani-Iranian relations and where they
stand today,” said Theodore Karasik, head of research for the Institute for
Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, a Dubai-based think tank. “Oman and
UAE may be headed for a rough patch that is now in public view.”
Another suggestion is that
the spies may have been interested in the issue of the
succession of Omar's Sultan Qaboos, according to a security official quoted
by the Agence France-Presse news agency.
The Sultan is 70 years old and does not have children.
Before it came into the open the spat had already apparently triggered a
deterioration in relations. Some pointed to circumstantial evidence of
rising tensions, such as delays on the land border between the UAE and Oman
and disruption to a yacht race between Dubai and Muscat, the Omani capital.
The UAE was formed in 1971 when the UK withdrew from the region. The Omani
sultanate – perhaps the UK’s closest ally in the region – had declared
independence two decades earlier.
But the UAE and Oman, both close UK allies, only finalised their land border
in 2008, after reaching a partial settlement in 1999.
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