So now across all parties their is a common stance that the royal institution must be protected. And so it should be. But that does not mean that the lese majeste law is a good law in its current form or that it has not been, or cannot be, misused.

If you are not with us you must be against us appears to be the mantra in Thailand leaving no room for honest debate.

Etihad takes 40% of Air Seychelles

25 January 2011

Etihad Airways said today that it has signed an agreement to take a 40 percent stake in Air Seychelles; the 40% investment is accompanied by a management agreement.

Etihad will invest $20m in the Indian Ocean carrier, to be matched by the Seychelles government, and will also provide a $25m loan to meet working capital requirements and fund network development, the airline said in a statement.

As part of the deal, Etihad will increase flights between Abu Dhabi and to the island of Mahé from four per week to daily, as well as providing new services, it added.

The agreement is Etihad Airways’ second equity investment, following its December announcement that it would increase its stake in Air Berlin to 29.21 percent, making it the single biggest shareholder in Europe’s sixth largest airline.

Joel Morgan, Seychelles Minister of Home Affairs, Environment, Transport and Energy, said: “This is a game-changing strategic partnership for us, establishing Air Seychelles on a sustainable growth trajectory and offering a realistic way forward for long-term commercial growth.”

Which is sort of the point. This is more about a government to government investment than a company to company investment.

James Hogan, CEO of Etihad, added: “This deal is consistent with our approach to expansion, which relies on the strength of strategic partnerships across the globe.

"The investment in the national carrier of Seychelles is a natural next step towards growing our operations in the increasingly important leisure markets of the Indian Ocean and Africa.”

The agreement, which is the first of its kind in Africa, makes for provision for a five-year management contract for Etihad Airways which will see the implementation of strategic measures to encourage Air Seychelles’ long-term commercial growth.

Another element of the agreement gives Air Seychelles office presence in Etihad Airways offices across the Etihad Airways network.

The airlines will also sign a comprehensive codeshare agreement.

On the RAK

24 January 2012

Here is something I had not expected. But it is a long haul on a 737.

RAK Airways announced today that it will start flying to Kathmandu and Bangkok expanding its route network to 12.

Starting on February 15th, RAK Airways will operate three flights a week to Kathmandu. Bangkok will see 4 weekly flights begins from June 1st.

The Ras Al Khaimah based carrier, which relaunched operations in 2010, stated that one-way, all-inclusive fares to Kathmandu start at Dh499, while return fares start from Dh899.

The schedules are:

Ras al-Khaimah – Bangkok
RT802 RKT2000 – 0440+1BKK 738 x137
RT801 BKK0540 – 1000RKT 738 x124

Ras al-Khaimah – Kathmandu
RT713 RKT0200 – 0735KTM 738 257
RT714 KTM0835 – 1150RKT 738 257

Existing destinations are: Kozhikode, Jeddah, Dhaka, Chittagong, Cairo, Doha, Lahore, Peshawar, Kuwait and Khartoum.

The web site is www.rakairways.com. It is nice to see RAK Airways is developing a sense of humour : this is their inflight meal description: "because we know that not everybody out there is a fan of things like eel, squid, or long green beans, we make sure that our on-board food and beverage selection caters for everyone's tastes. If you have special dietary requirements (like an irrational fear of carrots), simply inform us when you make your reservation, and we'll make sure it's not a part of your meal."

The rise and rise of the mega city

22 January 2012 The Guardian

Amid a clutter of 24-hour arc lights, gigantic cranes and dumper trucks, a behemoth is rising out of a field of churned mud on the outskirts of Chengdu in south-west China. Commuters skirt its vast perimeter fence on their way to the new metro link that cuts under the city. They barely glance at what looks like just another huge construction project in a cityscape that changes every month.

This project, though, is different. When finished later this year, its developers proudly boast, it will be the world's largest standalone building. The New Century Global Centre is a leisure complex that will house two 1,000-room five-star hotels, an ice rink, a luxury Imax cinema, vast shopping malls and a 20,000-capacity indoor swimming pool with 400 metres of "coastline" and a fake beach the size of 10 football pitches complete with its own seaside village. Alongside will be another massive and futuristic structure, a contemporary arts centre designed by the award-winning Iraqi-born architect, Zaha Hadid.

The scale of the centre is a sign not just of the ambition of Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province, but a potential vision of the future. Last week Chinese authorities announced that for the first time more than half of the country's population were living in cities, 690.79 million, an increase of 21 million, compared to 656.56 million rural dwellers. The new urban-rural balance was a benchmark attained by the UK in the late 19th century and the US in the first decades of the last century – in 1800, only 3% of the world's people lived in cities. But the scale and speed of urbanisation across the developing world today are unprecedented – throwing up a string of megacities, from Jakarta to Istanbul, São Paulo to Cairo. Poor rural families flooding into the world's urban population centres bring challenges that have never before been seen – nor met.

Chengdu made the headlines in Britain late last year when it exported two pandas to Scotland, and it is developing a reputation as the centre of Sichuan's prized cuisine. But few in the west have paid much attention to the astonishing rise of Chengdu, despite a population (including its rural hinterland) of more than 14 million and its evident economic power and growing sense of self-confidence. Few have heard much either of cities like Ghaziabad, Surat or Faridabad in India, or of Toluca in Mexico, Palembang in Indonesia or Chittagong, the Bangladeshi port. Or of Beihai, another Chinese city on the northern coast. But this is likely to change. Each of these cities is among the fastest-growing settlements in the world. Their cumulative growth is set to usher in a new era of city living, changing the face of the planet. Beihai, which already has 1.3 million inhabitants, is set to double its population in seven years. The municipality of Chengdu will reach 20 million. Ghaziabad, now itself part of the urban sprawl of the Indian capital Delhi, is already home to nearly four million people.

Crucially, though experts estimate that the number of megacities of more than 10 million inhabitants will double over the next 10 to 20 years, it is these less well-known cities, particularly in south and east Asia, that will see the biggest growth. Predicting what the new era will bring is taxing economists, senior businessmen, security experts and strategists across the world.

Optimists see a new network of powerful, stable and prosperous city states, each bigger than many small countries, where the benefits of urban living, the relative ease of delivering basic services compared to rural zones and new civic identities combine to raise living standards for billions. Pessimists see the opposite: a dystopic future where huge numbers of people fight over scarce resources in sprawling, divided, anarchic "non-communities" ravaged by disease and violence.

Nowhere is this more evident than in India, where years of underinvestment, chaotic development and rapid population growth have combined with poor governance and outdated financial systems to threaten an urban disaster.

In the middle of last week, Prakash Kumar spent a morning helping to push a broken-down van loaded with bags of cement up a flyover in southern Delhi. He was happy to do so, he told the Observer. A recent immigrant to the capital from the poverty-stricken state of Bihar, the 24-year-old had picked up work helping a relative – another migrant – on a building site. For the equivalent of £3 a day, he was unloading emergency supplies of construction materials for contractors busy putting up flats for the new Indian middle classes. His dream is to get a job as a security guard, which pays around the same but simply involves sitting on a stool guarding a shop at night. For shelter, he shares a room in an illegal slum tenement with a dozen other labourers.

"At least there's work," he said. "In my village there is nothing. I send the money home to my family and we can eat."

The story of India's urbanisation – though slower than that of China or many other developing countries – is made up of hundreds of millions of variants on Kumar's story. Some 290 million people were living in cities in India in 2001, a figure that rose to 340 million in 2008 and is set to reach 590 million, around 40% of the population, by 2030. By that year, business consultant McKinsey and Co predicts, there will be 68 Indian cities of more than a million people, 13 with more than 4 million and six megacities with populations of 10 million or more. More than 30 million people will live in Mumbai and 26 million in Delhi.

It is far from sure that India's notoriously chaotic and inefficient systems of government can cope. At current rates of investment, McKinsey says, India's already congested cities will face gridlock with only a quarter of the necessary trains and metros and a severe shortage of water. Many inhabitants will have no drinking water at all and up to 80% of sewage will go untreated. In all more than a trillion dollars needs to be invested in infrastructure projects alone, it estimates.

According to Dr Rumi Aijaz, of the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, it is unlikely that this can be achieved. "Our urban areas are in a raw form. All the basics are at a very low level. And the Indian state has been trying for a very long time to address this but a lack of capacity and endemic corruption has meant not much success," Aijaz said. "The future is bleak. The situation is going to worsen."

The new Chinese cities, too, have their problems – though arguably less severe than those in south Asia. For every pound Indian authorities invest in urban infrastructure, their Chinese counterparts spend seven. This, however, is still insufficient to cope with the speed of urbanisation. Chengdu has become a test case for how China resolves these varied challenges. It has been named as one of China's "pilot reform regions", giving local authorities extraordinary powers to experiment.

The issue is becoming ever more pressing – rural unrest over continuing poverty as well as land seizures due to voracious development is widely reported, even in China's heavily censored media. Chengdu's mayor, Ge Honglin, claims that the city has avoided some of the problems associated with migration into the cities by encouraging families to stay in the countryside. "The first thing I did was to improve the conditions – schools, shops, garbage collection, the sewage system. We had to cut the gap between rural and urban areas. If people could have a brighter future in the countryside, they'd stay there. So we're not seeing people swarm into the city… Instead there are people in the city considering moving to the country."|

Chengdu modified the household registration system in use across the country, known as hukou, which previously prevented rural migrants from registering as city dwellers and benefiting from the city's welfare services. But at the same time it has extended such services into the surrounding countryside. Farmers as well as urban workers can now receive pension insurance, allowing women over 55 and men over 60 to claim a rudimentary pension once they have paid premiums for at least 15 years.

Hundreds of new schools have been built in the villages surrounding Chengdu; successful headteachers from city schools are being recruited to move into the countryside, while partnerships between struggling rural schools and the best urban schools are being set up.

The motivation for all these policies is clear – to persuade millions of rural families around Chengdu that they have an economic stake in China's rapid growth. Part of the strategy involves pouring resources into satellite towns and villages, and creating thousands of new rural communities where families can be rehoused. "Chengdu is the only super-large central city that has narrowed the urban-rural income gap alongside rapid economic growth in China," Ge says.

He has also taken a zero-tolerance approach to urban squalor – a policy facilitated by China's authoritarian culture – which involves patrols with mobile phones and cameras scouring the city reporting broken advertising hoardings, missing manhole covers and other minor problems. "You can barely see a beggar in Chengdu," Ge said. "We have a special system for monitoring them, and it works. Beggars are taken to the assistance centre, where they are given food and shelter and money to take them back to their home. If I say there are no more than 10 beggars on the street you will think there's some sort of tyranny, but there isn't. We're trying to solve their problems."

Even if the demands for power, sanitation and security can be met, however, the new cities, whether of 30 million or five million inhabitants, present a cultural challenge: how to establish a sense of community in huge and complex societies. In one recent book, The Spirit of Cities, two political theorists argued that the distinctive spirit of the city states of ancient Greece should be rediscovered. Daniel A Bell, of Tsinghua University in Beijing, and Avner de-Shalit, of Hebrew University, Jerusalem, argue that "civicism", or attachment to a city and the assertion of its local identity, brings numerous benefits, ranging from curbing excesses of nationalism to potentially sparking economic renaissance. "We say that though the scale is different compared to ancient cities, modern cities can still express an identity," Bell said last week.

In Chengdu, there is abundant evidence of the city's efforts to preserve a sense of cultural identity amid bewildering change. Ancient districts that were knocked down have been lovingly recreated to house market stalls selling highly prized Sichuan delicacies. They are packed with locals, in stark contrast to the cavernous and empty modern malls on the outskirts of the city. Last autumn's Chengdu biennale, an exuberant exhibition of modern art and architecture filled with tributes to traditional techniques and rural themes, was housed in a refurbished Soviet-built factory complete with original murals of workers and peasants, an ironic reference amid the throngs of students and children who throng the cafes nearby.

There are few such initiatives in India but a sense of community among city dwellers is nonetheless often present. Inhabitants of Mumbai can be fiercely proud of their city, particularly when it is compared to Delhi. Smaller "metros" such as Bengaluru and Hyderabad also have well-defined identities, reinforced by local languages and cultures as well as a range of local media.

For Prakash Kumar, the simple fact of making a living in the capital, however basic, is a source of pride. "The rest of my family will come and join me one day," he said.

Some of the statistics in this chart are remarkable - and for people planning tourism, airlines, hotels, infrastructure etc they will shape the businesses of the future.

The threat hanging over Thailand

20 January 2012

The Nation newspaper is gleefully reporting that four leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) have vowed to resume the struggle against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul said the military should stage a coup in cooperation with the people in order to wrestle a complete control of the country from Thaksin.

"If the PAD is to make a move once again, this time will not just confine to street protesting but a complete seizure of power," he said, pledging a make-or break struggle.

Sondhi said he feared for the future of the monarchy if the Thaksin camp had its way.

The PAD has not gone away; it is clearly opposed to any return of Thaksin and to the long term government of Puea Thai. The PAD's position is that Thaksin is a rogue capitalist seeking to plunder the country.

Another PAD leader Somkiat Pongpaiboon said he expected a final showdown with the Thaksin regime. He claimed about the regime was contracting some 5,000 Cambodian and Vietnamese mercenaries to topple the monarchy in order to inaugurate a republic.

I dont believe that for a minute but I am sure there are many people in Thailand who will be happy to believe it to justify their cause.

The PAD will pour into the streets at the first sign of changing charter provisions pertaining the monarchy and granting amnesty for Thaksin, he said.

PAD's Chamlong Srimuang said the PAD-led protests for 384 days and nights were proof of the invincibility of the people's power.

Chamlong vowed to flex the PAD's power if the situation calls for. Remember these are the same people that occupied the airport in 2008 for which no one person has been sentenced.

Which is just part of why this is a very nervous time in Thailand and why anyone seeking to invest there needs to be very resilient and to have a high tolerance for risk.

Cricket needs to support its real fans

18 January 2012

I met plenty of people yesterday at the Dubai cricket stadium who are spending plenty of money in Dubai. Expensive hotel rooms; taxis to the stadium, drinks and dinners. Some are here for a whole months to watch the cricket; these are folk who set their whole calendar around England's cricket schedule.

So what happens when they get to Dubai? The administrators treat the fans as though they are a nuisance.

Dubai Sports City, the ICC and the Pakistan cricket board have set up this match for television. Not for real flesh and blood supporters.

The stadium grass is stained in sponsors logos set for the cameras. The large video screen is invisible to most spectators and spends more time showing adverts than cricket.

The British tourists have been sold the top price tickets. Above the pavilion and by the press box. But without any sun all day.

Meanwhile the remaining supporters are corralled into the West side of the stadium where they squeeze into a sunny corner to catch the last of the mid afternoon sun before sitting in cold and shade for the final session.

Meanwhile the east side of the stadium is bathed in sunshine. Here as England celebrate Hafeez's wicket you can see the supporters huddling in the last remaining sunny spot.

Photograph: Paul Childs/Action Images

Thursday, the third day of this test match, could be a very good day of cricket. Time to treat the real fans as an important part of this match rather than as an unpleasant nuisance,

The coming demise of the Metropolitan Hotel

18 January 2012

As rumoured last month Dubai-based Al Habtoor Group has confirmed that it will demolish the 34-year-old Metropolitan Hotel and build three luxury hotels and a string of tourist attractions including a theatre to stage Broadway-style shows.

The company said that construction of the complex, which will include a shopping arcade, a tennis and sports academy and themed restaurants, is set to begin in the first quarter and be completed in 48 months.

Al Habtoor has yet to sign the hotel brands to operate the trio of properties but said the announcement would be made soon; the plans call for one luxury hotel – six stars – and the other two would be five-star.

The new plan is based on the fact that tourist arrivals to Dubai increased 14 percent in the first half of 2011 while hotel occupancy rates rose over 80 percent as Gulf tourists avoided troubled traditional destinations such as Egypt and Syria, according to data from EFG-Hermes.

The redevelopment of the Metropolitan Hotel will also take advantage of neigbouring projects such as Downtown and Burj Khalifa areas.

Strangely there is an empty tower sat next to the Executive Towers development which was originally planned as a Jumairah hotel which remains empty. If downtown is such a prime location it is strange that this development has not been completed.

The Metropolitan hotel site on a plot of land that includes serviced apartments; a softball park, a cinema complex and a number of bars including the infamous Rattlesnake where taxis are queued in large numbers in the early hours of every morning.

Dubai's missed opportunity

17 January 2012

Over the last two years Dubai has been given a great opportunity to put itself on the world cricket map.

The ICC has its headquarters in Dubai.

The city has built a fine training facility and a brand new 25,000 seat stadium.

As so often in Dubai it sounds impressive but the reality is something different.

The stadium is in Sports City on the east side of those endless roadworks known as Emirates Rd.

England are playing Pakistan in the first of a three match test series. Pakistan's home games are all played in the UAE because of the terror threat in their home country. Test matches have already been played against South Africa and Sri Lanka. For UAE cricket this has been a windfall and a great opportunity to showcase the sport and the new stadium.

So you would think that the whole thing would be better marketed and better organised.

A crowd of less than 2,000 was there for the first day. It was a great day of cricket desperately looking for an inspiring atmosphere.

Pakistan bowled England out for 192. Seven wickets for Saeed Ajmal. But for the most part it was England surrendering their wickets. There was not a lot in the wicket. It was slow and took a little spin. It is a pitch that requires patience.

There were more than 23,000 vacant blue seats. Pakistan are familiar with this and are unbeaten in five previous Tests in the UAE against Sri Lanka and South Africa over the last 15 months. They did get a bigger crowd in Sharjah, but the England tests are in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

The trouble is that the Cricket Stadium is far out of town with no public transport. The test also started on a Tuesday. It may be all over by Friday when Dubai's large Pakistani population could attend.

Road access is a mess unless you know it. The Al Khail Rd/Emirates Rd junction is not complete. I drove along Al Khail Rd and you cannot turn North to the Stadium - you can only turn towards Abu Dhabi in the wrong direction. There are no signposts to the stadium. I took what I thought would be the correct exit to U turn back onto Emirates Rd and next thing I knew I was in Jebel Ali and back on Sheikh Zayeed Rd.

Parking is also on a stoney wasteland; there is no proper car park; unless you are a VIP or better still can use the access for VVIPs.

At the stadium there is a small ticket office in a wasteland. Not at the entrance where it should be! Water bottles are confiscated at the turnstiles by zealous security guards.

You buy water inside but the cap is taken off and disposed of - local rules apparently for all drinks.

Most of the Brits sat in the premium seats – probably because that is what their tour operators sold them. Trouble was few of those seats gets the sun at any time in the day. But it is the only part of the ground where alcohol is sold. It cannot be taken to the seats and has to be drunk in the concrete shell of the building.

I am cheap - there was lots of space in the 20 dirham seats and more atmosphere. And there was some sun until mid afternoon. So many of the Brits moved to the cheap seats.

There is sun shining on the east stand all day. Trouble is that half of the ground was closed. And it is only that half of the ground that gets a clear view of the video screen - very useful at cricket when you miss something. so we are all sat in the coldest part of the ground with no view of the big screen. Bizarre.

To ensure that the atmosphere deteriorated to that of a morgue Billy Cooper, the Barmy Army's long-serving trumpeter, apparently had his trumpet confiscated in the tea interval.

And to finish the day - the taxi queue took over an hour to clear after the match. The RTA and Sports City should have arranged a fleet of buses to the nearest Metro station or ensured that taxis would be available. This is the third test match to be held in Dubai - they really should have sorted out marketing and transport by now.

Those in peril on the sea

16 January 2012

I have never wanted to go on a cruise ship; and after the events of this weekend I am sure I never will.

The Costa Concordia sunk quickly in relatively shallow water off the Italian coast two nights ago after the ship struck a rock while sailing far closer to land than it was authorised and programmed to do. The vessel hit rocks off the tiny island of Giglio with a 160ft gash being ripped in the ship's hull.

As I write this six people have died and sixteen are still unaccounted for.

Costa Crociere, which is a subsidiary of US giant, Carnival, is blaming the captain. They argue that the captain made an unauthorised diversion from the ship's computer-programmed course.

Despite pushing all the blame on its captain Costa Crociere chairman and chief executive Pier Luigi Foschi said that the company stood by captain Francesco Schettino, and would provide him with legal assistance.

The captain may want to get his own lawyer.

Much of the video and commentaries comning from rescued passengers has been critical of the evacuation efforts of the crew. However as one crew member, Katia Keyvanian, a hostess on the ship has said "we evacuated 4,000 people from a ship lying on its side in the dark, in less than two hours! Incompetent people would not have been able to do that."

Did the Costa Concordia cruise ship run aground because the captain wanted to show tourists a close-up of the coast? That is one theory. But if that is the case have the Costa boats done that every time they sailed this route? If that is the case the company is being miseading.

There are alarming smells of a cover up. It would be no surprise if the investigation suggests a serious lack of safety awareness within the company.

Even so the whole issue of cruising is fraught with problems when things go wrong.

These ships are simply too big. There were 4,000 people on board the Concordia. Assembling and evacuating that many people in the dark is a cause for massive panic.

The ship had just started its cruise - it was two hours out of its home port. Most passengers would not have even known their way around the ship. Many passengers will have struggled to even find their cabins and recover their life jackets.

There had been no emergency drill before the ship set sail. So passengers would be unfamiliar with the emergency procedures. Apparently the drill only has to be held withing 24 hours of leaving port.

Lifeboats are still launched according to a design that is over 100 years old. When the ship is tilting at over 20 degrees then half of the lifeboats cannot be launched.

There was no common language on board; passengers were from many different nations - so many people would not understand any instructions that they are being given.

Was there a proper safety management system in the company; was it monitored; was it effective. The question being whether this was a one off incident or the result of a corporate culture that allowed this accident to happen.

There will be an investigation. And it is likely that safety rules for cruise liners will change dramatically. For instance, as with flying, there has to be a full safety briefing before leaving port.

And in time there will be changes in the equipment and procedures for abandoning a ship. 2 hours of standing on deck fighting to get into a lifeboat is not the future.

There is far more detail and some distressing pictures in this Daily Mail report: A world turned on its side: Divers reveal the chaotic mess survivors had to brave to escape listing cruise liner.

And in the Guardian: Costa Concordia cruise liner's company blames captain for disaster.

Some alarming pictures here.
 

Dubai financial markets reality check

16 January 2011

You probably will not read this in the Dubai media but Dubai’s benchmark stock index retreated on Sunday to the lowest level in more than seven years on concern that full-year earnings may disappoint and after France and Austria were stripped of top credit ratings.

Now this should not be too much of a surprise given the global economy; but the other problem faced by Dubai is the lack of volume. Fewer people are trading. Brokers have been shutting up shop.

The forecast is for more of the same. There is no positive catalyst. On February 9 Emaar is expected to report a significant drop in full-year earnings. The company’s third-quarter profit fell 34 percent as revenue declined and property deliveries slowed. Income of developers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi has suffered after real-estate prices tumbled by more than half since their peak in 2008.

Standard & Poor’s cut France and Austria sovereign credit ratings one level to AA+ from AAA last week and said they face the risk of further reductions. Spain and Italy were also among nine nations downgraded, while Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg kept their AAA ratings and were put on negative watch.

Guess that just leaves Germany!

One glimmer of good news for consumers; albeit not so good for producers. Crude oil for February delivery declined 0.4 percent to $98.70 a barrel in New York on Jan. 13, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21, after two European Union officials said an embargo on Iranian crude imports may be postponed for six months.

AirAsia Ex?

13 January 2012

I am not sure what is going on in Malaysian aviation but the closer co-operation of malaysian and air asia appears to be bad for malaysian consumers with less choice available of many routes.

Just a couple of weeks ago Malaysian announced schedule reductions and now Air Asia X has done the same.

On the other hand it may be good news for the middle east carriers with Emirates for instance offering 3 daily flight to Kuala Lumpur including an A380.

Budget carrier Air Asia X, part of the Air Asia group, has said that it will stop flying to India and Europe by March this year.

The airline will close flights to Mumbai from January itself, while services to New Delhi, London and Paris will cease in March. (LGW ceases on April 1st).

Chief Executive Azran Osman-Rani said continued high jet fuel prices and weakening demand for air travel due to a depressed economy were a double-whammy for the carrier and made it “economically impossible” for the airline to sustain low fares to Europe.

But the whole idea of Air Asia X was to set up an alternative hub for long distance flights for instance from Europe to Australia.

Oil prices have tripled since AirAsia X launched flights to London in early 2009, and are likely to remain high due to unrest in the Middle East and an Iranian oil embargo, the airline said.

No question; but airlines do hedge their fuel costs.

Flights to Europe are also burdened by the implementation of an emissions trading scheme this month and escalating air passenger duty taxes in Britain, Azran said in a statement. Attempts to increase fares have led to demand falling adversely. Add the fact that there are many alternative flights through the Middle East at similar fares.

In India, Azran said visa restrictions for travel between India and Malaysia, and a sharp spike in airport and handling charges made it tough for the airline to operate. Airport and handling costs in India are already more expensive than even Australia and are expected to rise by 280 percent from April, the statement said.

Sounds a little too much like too many excuses.

“We intend to concentrate capacity in our core markets of Australasia, China, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea where we have built up stable, profitable routes … we intend to open up new routes within these markets, as well as add frequencies on existing routes,” Azran said. I can see Air Asia X being integrated into Air Asia's short hall network.

Once again it shows just how hard it is to operate low cost long haul. Oasis Hong Kong had the same problem; Scoot will encounter similar issues.

Security Alert, recall, recalled....

13 January 2012

The US Embassy today issued a security alert for its citizens in Bangkok.

There must be real knowledge of security issues for such an alert to be issued. The alert was then recalled. And then the recall was recalled and the alert confirmed.

At moments like this the US embassy officials appear clueless. And its citizens left confused.

The alert said:

“This message alerts U.S. citizens in Thailand that foreign terrorists may be currently looking to conduct attacks against tourist areas in Bangkok in the near future. U.S. citizens are urged to exercise caution when visiting public areas where large groups of Western tourists gather in Bangkok. U.S. citizens are encouraged to maintain a heightened awareness when out in public; be alert for unattended packages/bags in public/crowded places and report any suspicious behavior to the nearest law enforcement personnel. We also encourage you to keep a low profile in public areas, particularly areas frequented by foreign tourists.”

After sending out the flash alert the notice was then quickly recalled. A short while later, the recall was then recalled with this message: “Due to a technical error, some recipients received this message – followed by a recall message – a few minutes later. Please disregard the recall message.” Chaos - on something potentially so serious.

Note that the US Embassy alert is specific to tourist areas in BKK and relates to foreign terrorists (so is unrelated to Domestic politics).

Big question is how does one keep a low profile in public places, especially those frequented by foreign tourists - keep low, hide behind pillars? Wouldn't it be better just to avoid them all together?

But there is no way the embassy would have sent this warning if they hadn't picked up major chatter about it. Of course, that doesn't mean it isn't a bluff or that it will definitely happen. But a good time to stay safe.

Rather late in the day Yuthasak, Thailand's Defense Minister says intelligence reports advise that two terrorist have entered Bangkok targeting Americans & Jews. The Thai government said it had been informed by the US that a pair of suspected Muslim "terrorists" had entered the kingdom.

"The US contacted us last night about two terrorists who entered Thailand and plan terrorist activities," Thai defence minister General Yutthasak Sasiprapha said.

"Our intelligence officials are working closely with the US and following the terrorists' movements closely.

"I believe we will arrest them tonight.

"For Thai citizens, there is no need to announce any warning because it will cause panic and will affect our tourism"

Fail, fail fail ! We will arrest them tonight. Not a chance. We wont issue any warning. So an attack in a tourist area will only target Americans and somehow Thais and other foreigners will all be safe. Who lets these people say anything?

"Accused slapper yet to appear"

13 January 2012

A wonderful headline from the Nation newspaper.

The story relates to a senior Thai customs official, who slapped a Suvarnabhumi Airport security officer in the ear for having asked him to undergo a security check - an incident widely shown on YouTube - has not yet responded to a police summons.

The Nation added that Suvarnabhumi Airport police station superintendent Pol Col Natthanan Nanasombat said Thursday the senior official Sombat Chatchaiwaiwit had been given a week, before January 18, to contact police or an arrest warrant would be issued. The police investigator also requested the victim's physical examination results from hospital to use in the case investigation and has interviewed witnesses. Police are also investigating who released the video clip of the incident on to the Internet.

The last line is sadly predictable. The Thai official will be moved sideways. The real witch-hunt will be for whoever released the video.

The end of Sodomy 2.0

14 January 2012

For anyone who has followed the career, accusations, trial, imprisonment and retrial of Anwar Ibrahim this Economist leader sums up the background well. The conclusions are legitimate. 20 years ago Ibrahim was a bright young challenger to Mahathir Mohammed. Now he may be too out of touch and too tarnished to lead a powerful and successful opposition.

"After more than two years of legal wrangling, sordid media revelations and political point-scoring, on January 9th the High Court in Malaysia’s capital finally handed down a verdict in Anwar Ibrahim’s sodomy case—not guilty. Homosexuality is illegal in Muslim-majority Malaysia, and if found guilty the former deputy prime minister and current leader of the opposition could have been jailed for up to 20 years. Now, however, Mr Anwar’s vindication allows him to throw his energies into fighting the government in a general election expected later this year.

The case began in 2008 when a male aide reported to the police that Mr Anwar had sodomised him. Mr Anwar, however, maintains that the whole trial was a put-up job by a nervous government, desperate to discredit him after he came close to winning a general election earlier that year. The whole affair seemed an unlikely rerun of similar charges brought against Mr Anwar when he was ousted from his post as deputy prime minister in 1998—hence the moniker of Sodomy 2.0 for this case. Indeed, Mr Anwar claims that all the legal suits over the past 14 years add up to a sustained vendetta against him by the ruling party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which has ruled the country continuously since independence from Britain in 1957. Once the golden boy of UMNO, Mr Anwar claims the feud started after he fell out with the autocratic and long-serving prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad. He has been demonised by his former colleagues ever since.

After the first accusations in 1998, Mr Anwar spent six years in prison for corruption and sodomy before being cleared of the second charge by the country’s supreme court and released in 2004. This time the judge ruled that the prosecution case against Mr Anwar was too flimsy for a conviction; the DNA evidence, in particular, was ruled unreliable.

If the two sodomy charges really were invented by some in UMNO bent on wrecking Mr Anwar’s career, then the strategy has backfired. The first case in 1998 rallied huge public sympathy for Mr Anwar. With Sodomy 2.0 he has been publicly vindicated, despite a widespread belief that he was going to be convicted. Indeed, the government swiftly attempted to exploit this by claiming that the verdict showed “the government does not hold sway over judges’ decisions”, framing this as part of its vaunted reform programme. The independence and quality of the judiciary has improved a little since the days of Dr Mahathir, but many in Malaysia remain cynical and conspiracy theories abound.

How will the verdict affect Malaysia’s politics? In the short term Mr Anwar’s victory will give a much-needed boost to the coalition of opposition parties that he leads. So much so, in fact, that the cautious prime minister, Najib Razak, might even postpone going to the polls.

In the longer term, however, things are less clear-cut. Although Mr Anwar remains a charismatic figure and a forceful speaker, his reputation has been tarnished. That won’t matter to his acolytes, but at 64 he also seems a distant and untrustworthy figure to many younger Malaysians. He has failed to nurture a new generation of opposition leaders. Rather than turning his party into a vibrant, modernising force in politics he has allowed it to become something of a family-run affair, riven by infighting.

In prison, some political operators say, he could have served as a useful martyr figure to rally the opposition. Now, they are stuck with him indefinitely as a leader. Mr Anwar may still be popular enough to land a few blows on the government. But he may also be too weakened to deliver the knockout punch."

EK runway incursion at Sydney; how serious?

11 January 2012

A week ago an Emirates A380 was involved in a runway incursion at Sydney. Quick action was taken by ATC and two other airplanes which may have saved a potentially serious situation. There are more details on pprune and on avherald.

The incident occurred just before 9.30 am last Friday, 6 January, when an Emirates A380 under taxi appears to have intruded onto the main north-south runway (16R) causing a Japan Airlines 777 to abort its takeoff, and come to a halt and a Malaysia Airlines 747-400 cleared to land on 16R to break off its approach and go around because of the obvious risk that neither the Emirates or Japan Airlines flight would have cleared the active runway in time.

The Malaysia flight go around is apparent on the Webtrak archive for Sydney Airport, but the actual events on the ground aren’t clear because when jets are stationary they do not appear on the radar based tracking app.

The Emirates Airlines A380, registration A6-EDN was performing flight EK-412 from Sydney,NS (Australia) to Auckland (New Zealand) and had been cleared to taxi for departure via taxiway G and A. However it appears to have missed the turn onto taxiway A and went past the hold short line of runway 16R at about 09:26L (22:26Z Jan 5th).

A JAL Japan Airlines Boeing 777-200, registration JA711J performing flight JL-772 from Sydney,NS (Australia) to Tokyo Narita (Japan), had been cleared for takeoff from runway 16R and was accelerating for takeoff, when the A380 went past the hold short line. JAL rejected its takeoff at low speed coming to a stop before the intersection with taxiway G.

A Malaysia Airlines Boeing 747-400, registration 9M-MPB performing flight MH-123 from Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) to Sydney,NS (Australia), was on final approach to Sydney's runway 16R and went around from low height due to the rejected takeoff and the Boeing 777 on the runway, repositioned for another approach and landed safely about 15 minutes later.

The JAL Boeing 777 was able to depart about 20 minutes later and reached Tokyo on time.

The Emirates Airbus needed to cross runway 16R to resolve the conflict, re-joined the departure queue departing Sydney about 30 minutes later and reached Auckland with a delay of 30 minutes.

On Jan 9th (Australian time) Airservices Australia confirmed a runway incursion on Jan 6th that resulted in a rejected takeoff and a go-around, however declined to provide further details.

It is unclear what action, if any, the ATSB may chose to take. Of course there is no mention of this incident in any of the UAE media.

How serious was this; well the good news is that all the safeguards worked and air crews reacted quickly to ensure the safety of their passengers and crew. But this was in daylight on a clear day and something must have distracted the EK crew. And tiredness may well be a factor again.

Sun setting over Dubai

8 January 2012

Witch hunt for red Joss Stick

8 January 2012 - The Bangkok Post

Hate mail and threats are the least of her worries. Being shunned by society that has forced a young girl to become persona non grata should be considered cruel and unusual punishment She had to change her name. She was turned away from three universities despite passing the entrance exams. She's hounded by the press and society. It has been more than three years, and the witch hunt continues.

She calls herself ''Joss Stick'', or in Thai karn toop.

Her real name and the name she changed to were revealed to the public by Manager Online, owned by Sondhi Limthongkul, leader of the yellow shirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

But her name will not be revealed in this space.

Over three years ago, onstage at an event organised by the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, a teenage girl made a speech to support ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. She also called on the country's youth to take to the streets. But that wasn't what made her infamous. There have been plenty of people young and old going on stage in support of Thaksin. Her unfortunate saga originated in cyberspace when she was still in high school.

According to reports, more than three years ago she allegedly posted something on her Facebook page that was offensive to the monarchy. To this day, she has not been charged with any crime. But she suffers nonetheless.

Mr Sondhi and his media organisation brought her to trial. The court of public opinion delivered the guilty verdict. PAD supporters and others continue to punish her relentlessly.

Hate mail and threats are the least of her worries. Being shunned by a society that has forced a young girl to become persona non grata should be considered cruel and unusual punishment, especially as she has never been found guilty of any crime in court.

Joss Stick grew up in Ratchaburi province. She was said to be a good student at Rattanarat Bamrung School, but she was kicked out of it. The reason given for her expulsion was that she often criticised the monarchy.

She later graduated from Tanprasartpetch School in Nakhon Ratchasima province.

In 2009, Joss Stick passed the entrance exam at Silpakorn University's Communication and Arts Department.

According to a report by Manager Online, many people contacted the university, complaining of her ''anti-monarchy'' stance and demanding the school not accept her.

Manager Online cited Maneepin Promsuthirak, the department's dean, as saying that despite Joss Stick's passing exam scores, the school deemed her anti-monarchy activities as unfit and therefore her admittance was denied.

Joss Stick later changed her real name and in 2010 passed the entrance exam to Prasarnmitr College.

In a recent interview with Matichon Online _ not to be confused with Manager Online _ Joss Stick said her oral interview was cut short. According to Joss Stick, the school interviewer told her that she knew what she had done and that she should just return home to wait for the interview result.

She was denied entrance to the school.

In that same year, Joss Stick also applied to Kasetsart University. Her opponents created a Facebook page called: ''We are confident that the people of Kaset would not welcome someone who insults Father.''

On the day on which she was due for an oral interview, there was a mob at the university demonstrating against her and Kasetsart. At the same time, about 30-40 red shirts showed up to support her.

Fearing for her own safety, Joss Stick decided not to show up for the interview.

The young girl then disappeared and many people were cheered that they actually had hounded her into hiding, or even out of the country _ there was a rumour that she received a private scholarship to study abroad.

For a while Joss Stick's unfortunate story died, but was then resurrected.

Recently Manager Online learned that Joss Stick is studying at Thammasat University's Social Administration Department.

The media and the people who have been hounding her demanded to know why Thammasat accepted the girl's enrollment.

Here is the response from the university's head, Somkid Lertpaitoon, as taken from Manager Online. ''As for the girl Joss Stick, people have sent me emails. But no one has sent me any facts. Thammasat knew from the beginning who this girl was. When she passed the exam, the school had two meetings to consider her admittance. The conclusion was to admit her. She passed the exam, how could we not let her study? How can we punish her for something she supposedly did before studying at Thammasat? I believe we should not bully a child.''

''Words and behaviour that are aggressive, insulting and derogatory to the royal institution _ are they true? I do not know. Nobody has told me. So we can't presume anything. Not one person has given me any facts. But if it is true, then Thammasat will investigate. To discipline [a student] is a normal thing. But if you were to say this girl cannot study here because of this and that reason, Thammsat cannot accept this. There's liberty in every square inch of Thammasat. If she insulted the King, then she would have been charged. Many people Facebook-ed me, saying this girl did this and that. I ask you this: if she did it, why don't you inform the police? All the teachers at Thammasat agreed that we should accept her. And if she does wrong [while attending Thammasat], then we will handle it according to the rules and regulations of Thammasat.''

In the Matichon Online interview, Joss Stick volunteered that she has had some difficulties with her classmates at Thammasat.

She said everyone knew who she was, that people talked about her and that there were many sarcastic remarks. Some had told her that if she doesn't love the King, she should leave the country. She also claimed that someone once threw a shoe at her, but missed.

When army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha suggested a social boycott of lese majeste offenders, is this what he had in mind?

There isn't much to say here. The story speaks for itself. The words of Thammasat's Dr Somkid already echo this writer's sentiments.

But the story doesn't end here for Joss Stick.

With Manager leading the way in the witch hunt, the police have summoned Joss Stick for questioning. She is due to report on Wednesday. However, she asked for the date to be moved to Feb 11 due to ongoing final examinations.

Is this what our society has come to?

Joss Stick has never been charged with a lese majeste crime. What she supposedly wrote on her Facebook, the public does not know. She has a political stance, which she is entitled to. She's been active politically, as young people often are for better or worse.

But because she supposedly, allegedly used words offensive to the monarchy, she has been not only hounded by society, but victimised in a witch hunt led by a major media organisation, revealing her identity so she could be bullied and harassed. All the while she was underage, her education was jeopardised and now a police summons.

 

Abu Dhabi airport celebrates 30 years of success

7 January 2012 WAM

Abu Dhabi International Airport on Tuesday marked its 30th anniversary, celebrating three successful decades of providing travellers and customers with world-class services and state-of-the-art facilities.

The capital’s international gateway has seen more than 126 million passengers pass through the airport since its opening at its current location in 1982.

Having historically been based in Al Bateen since 1969, Abu Dhabi International Airport started operation at its current location 38km outside the city in 1982. Terminal 1 covered 5,200 square metres and catered for 3 million passengers per year, which was later increased to 5 million passengers per year when Terminal 1A was opened. A growing number of airlines have since established their operations at Abu Dhabi International Airport, notably the UAE’s national carrier, Etihad Airways.

On the occasion of the 30th anniversary, Khalifa Al Mazrouei, Chairman of ADAC, said: “Abu Dhabi Airports Company is proud to be celebrating this special occasion and highlighting Abu Dhabi International Airport’s achievements over the past 30 years. The emirate of Abu Dhabi has experienced remarkable development in this short period of time, with Abu Dhabi International Airport being a vital part of the capital’s growth. Already established as a major international hub for travellers around the globe, Abu Dhabi International Airport is committed to further developing into a leading airport in the region, and a key contributor to the Abu Dhabi 2030 vision of economic diversification.”

The past 30 years have been particularly successful for Abu Dhabi International Airport in terms of airline and infrastructure developments. Etihad Airways launched in 2003 and was named the national carrier for the UAE. Terminal 2 opened in 2005 with a passenger capacity of 2 million passengers per year. Four years later in 2009, Terminal 3 was delivered, providing Etihad Airways with a dedicated terminal and a handling capacity of an additional 5 million passengers per year. In the same year, the 4,100 metres North Runway was completed doubling the airport’s runway capacity, while being the first airport in the UAE with CATIIIB capability.

In 2011, Abu Dhabi International Airport saw the completion of the iconic Air Traffic Control Complex, developed to enhance the capacity and efficiency of air traffic services at the Capital airport and cater to the anticipated growth in air traffic in the years to come. During the same year, ADAC completed an enhancement and refurbishment project at Terminal 1 to align its facility and offerings to that of Terminal 3 and other world class airports.

Today the airport caters to 53 international airlines connecting Abu Dhabi with more than 85 destinations in over 49 countries globally. Passenger numbers have also continued to increase over the past 30 years positioning Abu Dhabi International Airport as one of the fastest growing hubs in the world. Under Abu Dhabi Airport’s Company management, the airport has more than doubled passenger numbers during the past six years from 5.3 million in 2006 to above 12 million in 2011. In July 2010, the airport surpassed the one million passenger mark for the first time in a specific month.


Waiting for the man

6 January 2012 The Economist on Thaksin's inevitable return

With the flood waters mercifully receding in much of the country, normal service has resumed in Thai politics—and that means talking obsessively about Thaksin Shinawatra. The former prime minister, ousted in a coup in 2006, has been living in exile since 2008 to avoid going to prison for corruption on charges that he has always claimed were politically motivated. But now, with a new government in power led, very handily, by his younger sister Yingluck, it seems that it has become a matter of when not whether he returns to his native land.

The new government has begun “exploring every avenue to bring Thaksin back”, according to Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an analyst of Thai politics at the Institute of South-East Asian Studies in Singapore. In mid-December it was revealed that Mr Thaksin had been given a new Thai passport. Until then he had been travelling on Nicaraguan and Montenegrin documents. Now the government is working on an amnesty bill aimed at pardoning those jailed for political offences over the past few years. This will cover not just many of their own “red shirt” supporters but also leaders of the monarchist, anti-Thaksinites known as the “yellow shirts”. Crucially, it will also find ways to take in Mr Thaksin himself. The legislation might be passed by Parliament before the middle of the year.

Mr Thaksin remains a highly controversial and divisive figure in Thailand. So even his own sister’s government will have to proceed cautiously. The government shied away from pressing for a royal pardon on the occasion of King Bhumibol’s birthday on December 5th, wary of the backlash from the yellow-shirt movement that this would surely have provoked. Indeed, many fear that, however crafty the government is in eventually getting Mr Thaksin back, the issue risks overshadowing much else that Ms Yingluck wants to do. Her stress on national reconciliation, one of her main campaign themes last year, will begin to look hollow if she exhausts all her political capital merely to secure a safe passage back to Thailand for one man, simply out of family loyalty.

Besides, some wonder whether Mr Thaksin really needs to come back at all, given that he shows every sign of running the Thai government perfectly well from abroad. He has a grip over appointments to the cabinet and he sends an incessant stream of advice to ministers and members of Parliament. Mr Thaksin also seems to have become as good as a foreign emissary for his sister too.

He visited Myanmar last month. In his own words, this was to “smooth the way” for Ms Yingluck’s meeting with the apparently reformist president, Thein Sein. Before that, he was in Cambodia to ease tensions over a border dispute with Thailand that blew up under the previous government of Abhisit Vejjajiva. He has also been spotted on missions to Singapore and Hong Kong. So much for claims from the man who said last year that he was in “no hurry” to return home—and who before that had vowed that he would in future keep out of Thai politics altogether.

EK Airbus in emergency landing at CPT

5 January 2012 (via Emirates 24/7 and avherald)

An Emirates Airline A340-500 made an emergency landing in Cape Town, South Africa, with 243 passengers onboard late on Wednesday after its landing gear failed to retract.

The Airbus, registration A6-ERA performing flight EK-773 from Cape Town (South Africa) to Dubai (United Arab Emirates) with 243 passengers, was climbing out of Cape Town's runway 01 when the body gear did not retract and all gear doors remained open following main gear retraction. The aircraft levelled off at FL100, the crew declared emergency and returned to Cape Town's runway 01 for a safe landing about 90 minutes after departure. The aircraft vacated Cape Town's main runway onto runway 34 and was subsequently towed to the apron.

One observer reported all gear doors remained open after the gear had retracted, the aircraft was climbing through about 2500 feet at that point. Another observer on the ground reported the aircraft landed with the gear doors open, when the landing gear is down the gear doors normally close on the A340.

The airport said the aircraft returned to Cape Town due to a technical problem.

The airline said the aircraft returned to Cape Town after a technical problem developed with the landing gear. The passengers were taken to hotels.

Quoting passengers onboard the flight, media reports in South Africa said that there were two bangs immediately after the take-off and a third one was heard a few moments later. These bangs created panic among the passengers.....take that with a pinch of salt!

A statement sent to Emirates 24l7 by an Emirates spokesperson said: "Emirates flight EK773, which departed Cape Town for Dubai at 13:55 (local time) on 4th January, returned to Cape Town at 15:20 after a technical issue developed with the aircraft's landing gear.

"The aircraft landed uneventfully. At no point was the safety of the 243 passengers or crew at risk. Passengers are being provided with hotel accommodation until a replacement flight departs from Cape Town this afternoon, 5th January. Emirates regards the safety and security of its passengers and crew with the utmost importance."

The plane circled over the Indian Ocean for more than hour, apparently to jettison fuel before landing, but at the time many passengers did not know what was happening, IOL news reported.

dnata acquires travel republic and a potential headache!

4 January 2012

In travel news, Travel Republic (www.travelrepublic.com) has been bought by dnata, the airport operating subsidiary of Emirates Airlines. The deal was finalized December 29 but not announced until this week.

The purchase price has not been disclosed. dnata apparently acquired 75% of the company with the option to buy the remaining 25% from the three founders in five years time.

The acquisition represents one of Dnata's biggest business transactions in the company's 52 year history, it said yesterday in a statement.

Travel Republic offers prices on a choice of 120,000 hotels, and flights with some 100 airlines to 650 destinations. Last year Travel Republic recorded an increase of more than 40 per cent in its annual turnover to over £400 million (Dh2.29 billion), dnata said in the statement.

dnata believes that it can capitalise on the increasing popularity of online travel bookings by speeding the expansion of this business which will continue under the Travel Republic branding and will likely be expanded into the middle east and India.

Travel Republic reflects a European trend of moving away from the traditional package tour operators such as Tui and Thomas Cook with people instead booking individual components. But Travel Republic's growth appears to have its own problems; there are 16 pages of (mainly) complaints on the holiday watchdog forum. Margins are thin in this industry. And the consumer is really looking for the best value at the best price; there is not a lot of brand loyalty. So Travel Republic appears to have built its business by aggressive pricing which leaves little room for the costs of hand holding customers and th main issue appears to be customer service, or lack thereof.

In 2008 dnata acquired a 23 per cent share in worldwide corporate travel company Hogg Robinson Group and a 49 per cent stake in the global outsource provider Mind Pearl. This was followed by its December 2010 acquisition of in-flight caterer Alpha Flight Limited, extending the company's reach to its current presence in some 76 airports.

One suggestion is that dnata may now try and obtain a controlling interest in Hogg Robinson.

One mystery - why keep the travel republic brand - it really is not that well known. Why not leverage off the dnata brand.

EK to HCMC (Saigon) from June

4 January 2012

Effective 4th June, Emirates Airline resumes service to Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon as was)  in Vietnam. The airline is resuming service to Vietnam after a hiatus of almost 15 years.

The airline will launch service on the route on board two class Airbus A330-200 aircraft, switching to the Boeing 777-300ER effective Winter 2012/13 season.

Schedule:

EK390 DXB 0925 - 1920 SGN 332 D
EK391 SGN 2050 - 0045+1 DXB 332 D

Interesting - some of the Asia flights are timed to return around 4 or 5 am and connect with the morning departure bank to Europe and Africa.

The Vietnam flight is about the same flight time and schedule as EK372 to Bangkok. There are more flights beginning to arrive from Asia at the back end of the late night (11.00pm to 00.30am) arrival bank. The implication is that there will be more additions to the third departure bank to Europe around 3am. Manchester, Gatwick, Heathrow and Frankfurt already have departures at this time; ideal for connections from Saigon.

At some date I am sure that EK's planners would like the 3am departure bank to Europe to be similar to the 3pm bank with services to most of EK's European destinations.

Westjet's risky path

3 January 2012

WestJet Airlines Ltd. has announced plans to add smaller planes to its fleet to challenge Air Canada for the top spot in carrying domestic traffic within five years.

WestJet chief executive officer Gregg Saretsky said in a year-end interview that WestJet will focus on acquiring smaller aircraft for neglected domestic markets before considering larger planes for routes to Europe and Asia in the long term.

Calgary-based WestJet has focused on a single-fleet configuration of Boeing 737s since it launched in 1996. This model has been both simple and profitable. Its expansion carries the risk of higher costs and lower yields.

In 2000, Air Canada had 77 per cent of the domestic market, while WestJet held just 7 per cent. But Air Canada decided to devote greater attention to its routes to the United States and overseas. By early 2011, the competitive gap had narrowed to a point where Air Canada’s domestic market share slid to 56 per cent and WestJet’s grew to 36 per cent. Porter Airlines Inc. and others had the remaining 8 per cent.

If WestJet decides to order smaller planes by late 2012, the aircraft will likely start arriving by early 2014, positioning the airline to introduce service to smaller Canadian cities. The carrier has 97 Boeing 737s in its fleet, with another three of the jets to be added this year. The planes seat 119, 136 or 166 passengers, depending on the Boeing model.

On WestJet’s shortlist for smaller aircraft is the 70-seat Bombardier Q400 turboprop, a Canadian-built plane used by Toronto-based Porter. The Q400 is also flown on portions of Air Canada’s regional service through Jazz Air and Sky Regional Airlines Inc. at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport.

Industry observers say WestJet will have an advantage over Air Canada-affiliated regional operators that don’t have the fuel-efficient Q400, such as Central Mountain Air, which flies older turboprops configured to seat 18 or 30 passengers. Also on WestJet’s shortlist is the French-Italian ATR 72 turboprop.

“The Q400 would be ideal as a regional airplane,” Mr. Erickson said. “But I still think the end play will be WestJet’s entry into the international arena in the longer term. That would be transatlantic routes for starters, and at some point, transpacific, and the connecting passengers from smaller Canadian cities could assist with that.”

Mr. Saretsky emphasized that no corporate decision has been finalized on whether to order larger or smaller planes, but he favours nurturing the home market first. He cited examples of new destinations that could benefit from a WestJet expansion: Cranbrook, Prince Rupert, Fort St. John and Dawson Creek in British Columbia; Lethbridge, Alta.; Saguenay, Que.; and Sudbury, Sarnia and Timmins in Ontario.

Karl Moore, a professor at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management, said Mr. Saretsky understands the challenges because he worked at Seattle-based Alaska Airlines Inc. It flies Boeing 737s, but its affiliate, Horizon Air, operates Q400 turboprops.

“Certainly, you can see the success of the Q400 for thinner routes,” Prof. Moore said. “If you can have a plane that better matches the volume of passengers, it would be a winner.”

For WestJet, the key will be to selectively add domestic routes while overcoming the complexity of training pilots and having new aircraft parts on hand for the smaller aircraft, he said. WestJet will be able expand with new planes, but “it’s getting away from the business model of simplicity with the Boeing 737.”

The march of democracy

3 January 2012 - The Financial Times editorial

"In 1989, Francis Fukuyama declared that democracy would eventually emerge as the universal form of human government. The intervening years have given ample ammunition to those who disagree. Indeed, the inexorable rise of China has led some to dismiss democracy’s messy compromises in favour of authoritarian efficiency. People are prepared to sacrifice their freedoms, the argument runs, as long as the system under which they live can deliver economic growth.

The tumultuous events of 2011 have undermined this idea. Across the Arab world – a region once held to be indifferent to the attractions of democracy – long-oppressed peoples have risked everything to free themselves from the grasp of authoritarian regimes. In Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Ye­men, brutal tyrants were triumphantly toppled. And although Bas­har al-Assad has so far clung on in Syria, his grip on the country has been weakened by months of protests.

Of course, the optimism should not be overplayed. The North African revolutions have not yet spawned fully-fledged democracies. Tunisia may have elected its first parliament, but the ongoing elections in Egypt have been marred by renewed clashes between the military and demonstrators, and free polls in Libya remain some way off. Beyond the Middle East, meanwhile, many autocracies survived the year intact.

But the pessimism should not be overdone either. Building democracies from the rubble of fallen dictatorships was always going to be a painstaking process. And even those autocracies that made it through 2011 in one piece were not impervious to the ripples of the Arab spring. Nervy crackdowns on dissent in both Russia and China were a telling reminder of the fundamental fragility of any system that rules without the consent of the governed.

Furthermore, the significance of the revolutions of 2011 lies not merely in their success in sweeping away corrupt regimes. Just as importantly, the uprisings – those that succeeded, and those still continuing – were a reaffirmation of the enduring global appeal of the democratic idea, and the values of freedom and equality it enshrines.

To prosper, however, democracies must meet the needs of their people. Over the next year, the new leaders of the Arab world must establish the institutions necessary to guarantee the rights and freedoms for which their citizens have fought. Just as importantly, they will have to jump-start their countries’ faltering economies. Unless people quickly see an improvement in their lot, there is a risk that democracy will struggle to take root.

Established democracies also have much to prove in 2012. In the last year, countries on both sides of the Atlantic have grappled hopelessly with problems that should not be insoluble. In the US, attempts to revive the economy and rein in mushrooming public debt have been hobbled by partisan feuding. Europe’s leaders have been almost as inept in the face of their own political and economic crisis. It is not surprising that this year’s tide of global protest swept through Athens, Madrid and New York, as well as Tunis, Cairo and Benghazi. That the democracies survived while their authoritarian counterparts collapsed is a testament to two of the key strengths of the democratic system. It provides room for dissent. And it is better than most other systems at getting rid of failed rulers.

In 2012, a number of countries not blessed with these advantages face critical transitions. In some places, autocratic regimes may manage to remain in power. But from a global perspective, there is room for hope. When Mr Fukuyama gave his speech, the world contained 69 democracies. Today there are close to twice as many. The march of democracy is not finished yet."

Looking ahead to 2012

2 January 2012

2011 was a tough year - tough if you were a soon to be ex-dictator; tough if you were the world's most wanted terrorist; tough if you were job hunting in a severe economic downturn; tough if you were hoping for a recovery in asset values. A tough year for natural disasters from Christchurch to Fukushima. A tough year for anyone living through the turmoil of the Arab Spring whether trying to make a genuine difference or simply trying to protect and care for loved ones. It was a tough year for many in Europe as their economies floundered and austerity measures and new taxes eroded living standards. And it was an appalling year in Thailand where an election that should have given hope has instead further eroded freedom of expression. It was a tough year for the needy as the gap between the haves and the have-nots has widened in too many nations.

For some it was a year of hope; in Burma there are signs of a new democracy. Aung San Suu Khi's courage and sacrifice are giving hope to millions. The Arab Spring may lead to real change; it has to to justify the sacrifices that have been made.

Of course this might all be meaningless if the world comes to an end on December 21, 2012 when the Mayan calendar ends and the winter solar solstice sees the alignment of the sun with the Milky Way to form a galactic equinox.

But in one of the easier 2012 predictions this year will not be the end of the world.

So what will happen in 2012:

The Euro celebrates its tenth birthday and the Eurozone will survive. Those who are committed to its survival are stronger than those who would gleefully celebrate its demise. A weaker Euro and cuts in ECB interest rates will help; IMF programmes will also support some weaker economies; Ireland and Greece for instance. It will survive but the uncertainty and continuous discussion will continue. This will harm Mrs Merkl and Mr Sarkovsky who will probably both be replaced in 2012 elections.

Barack Obama will be re-elected in 2012. He has been a massive disappointment. So much hope has given way to weakness and compromise. But the Republicans are divided and do not have a strong enough candidate. Mitt Romney will likely win the Republican nomination. But as one paper described him - he is a vertebrae short of a backbone.

Obama will be hobbled from the start. The Republicans already control the House and will probably also control the Senate from the start.  The rest of the world will know that he is a weak President.

The Olympics will put London on the sporting map for two weeks in the summer. London will look good. And despite the austerity tag we should expect a terrific sporting event. After all where would the world's 20 something athletes most like to party - Beijing or London?

Expect at least one more UK newspaper to fail as the Leveson inquiry continues to show the depths that some journalists and editors have been willing to sink to - and as advertising revenues continue to drop. But note that Murdoch's news corporation share price increased 10% in 2011 while around him so many companies (hallo Thomson Reuters) were faltering. Cross the dirty digger at your peril.

Vladimir Putin will win a third presidential term. He has already prepared the results announcement. Sadly he wont change. He is too conservative to launch the legal, economic and political changes that Russia needs. He will continue to play the nationalism card when he needs to prop up support.

Germany (with its largely Turkish squad!) will win the 2012 European Championship.

Because I know you care - Abu Dhabi financed Manchester City will win the Premiership. Arsenal, because they have to win something, will go and lose the FA Cup final to whoever they play against. And Wenger will be gone by the summer. He will get a surprise appointment as manager of England....now that would be something.

Relegated: QPR (sorry Mr. Air Asia but that was a waste of your money); Bolton and sadly (because I like the manager) Wigan.

Champions League - Barcelona to be the first team to repeat.

Tiger Woods will win one of the four golf majors. He is still that good.

Italy's non-elected technocrat government will survive. And the politicians are happy to take a back seat while Mr. Monti deals with the economic mess.

Bashar-al-Assad's vicious Syrian regime has to fall one way or another. When it does Iran loses a key regional ally. Iran's reaction to greater isolation and to European sanctions will be continued belligerence and an acceleration of its nuclear programme - which it sees as much as a massive bargaining tool as a potential weapon.

Oil prices will hit US$150 a barrel. Geopolitical turmoil and EU oil sanctions on Iran will see to that. And US$150 will become the new benchmark instead of around US$100 in 2011. This will have a painful impact on airline costs. The Gulf airlines will manage; but there wll be more casualties and consolidation in European and US airlines.

Expect USAir and American to announce a merger.

European Airlines are already dominated by three major groups (Air France/KLM, the Lufthansa Group and BA/Iberia). The major groups will continue to acquire assets; landing slots mainly, from smaller airlines that cannot continues as costs escalate. Aer Lingus, SAS, Brussels Airlines are all in the firing line. And I suspect that Richard Branson would happily sell a large part (maybe not a controlling interest) in Virgin Atlantic.

Thailand will continue in political chaos. Thaksin will return. There will be more demonstrations; street protests and occupation of key buildings as a result. Unfortunately the one event that is not openly discussed in Thailand looms ever closer. And the Thais will at some stage have to deal with mourning, grief and succession. And that will be a very uncertain time. And it may be time that the military once again decides that it has to take charge. For foreign investors in Thailand these are very uncertain times.

There will be a collapse of another major European bank, arguably some have essentially collapsed already and are being propped up by the ECB. All this contributes to yet more job losses. And there will be plenty of those in 2012.

China will also be more introverted this year and its growing international influence will slow. Firstly there is the transition to a new President. Secondly the country will be unable to hide the increasing discontent and rise in protests among its people as they seek to deal with the wealth gap, corrupt and inept officials and their own lack of representation. Attempts to censor access to information; blocking facebook and twitter and other sources of international influence are all doomed in the long term. China cannot play the oppressed anymore. Its people are wealthier. They travel. They are better educated. The sacrifice of personal freedom for wealth creation only goes so far.

But the China factor will loom large in business planning in 2012 - from the UAE trying to sell real estate to cash investors from China to Australian travel business looking to the 100million Chinese who can now afford to travel overseas. The numbers are staggering.

As for the UAE; Emirates Airline will announce new routes to the USA, Africa, Russia and the FSU, and will add capacity on European routes. They should launch new routes into China but it maybe that China will be given over for Etihad to grow that market. Politically and economically it will be more of the same. Maintaining stability. And protecting the nation from the events in the rest of the middle east and north africa.

Sport will play a growing role in the UAE. The Pakistan v England test series being the most high profile cricket event to come to the UAE to date.

There is always the unexpected in any year. In 2012 we will be commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Titanic's disaster. She was said to be unsinkable. The unexpected is inevitable; it is how we deal with it that defines us.

Firework traffic chaos

2 January 2012

The trouble with the Burj Khalifa fireworks is that access to the Dubai Mall and surrounding developments remains chaotic.

Yes there was an extended service on the Dubai Metro; but using feeder buses from the metro stations appeared to add to the chaos as the buses were frequently driving into the arriving traffic.

By midnight the Dubai bound side of Sheikh Zayeed Rd was completely blocked. The dirt paths around Executive Towers were in gridlock. And people were walking through sand, and dirt, and across unprotected building areas to try and get to the lakeside by Dubai Mall.

And while people were arriving from about 6pm for the midnight show as soon as it ended everyone was trying to leave at the same time. There was chaos on Sheikh Zayeed Road as people walked across it. Maybe this is why Abu Dhabi and Dubai bound traffic was regularly halted at Junction 1. Some even walked along the flyovers to hunt for taxis. Emaar Boulevard was in gridlock.

The Dubai Metro operated until 5.30am yesterday. Its stations were packed with huge volumes of commuters. At the Dubai Mall station, according to the Gulf News, there were heated exchanges between the guards and the commuters who had babies and children in tow at the entrance at the Financial Centre side of the station.

It was not until after 3am that traffic had cleared.

The Burj is visible from miles around. Setting up a viewing area at Meydan was sensible. In future people need to be encouraged to view the fireworks from a variety of remote locations to better manage the chaos.

How bad was the traffic - look at Gerald Donovan's blog for his timelapse videos.

Nakheel continues its abuses

1 January 2012

It is not the season of goodwill if you are a resident in one of Nakheel's flagship developments.

Nakheel on Saturday banned hundreds of residents from watching Dubai’s New Year’s Eve fireworks from the Palm Jumeirah beaches, amid an escalating row over access to communal facilities.

Dubai’s largest property developer brought in extra security to bar residents in its luxury Shoreline project from accessing the beach to watch the city’s dramatic firework displays.

Amid angry scenes, security guards were witnessed warning residents – many with children - that they could be arrested if they tried to enter the beach area without access cards.

Security staff spoken to by Arabian Business shortly before midnight said they would use “whatever force necessary” to stop residents entering the beach. One guard, patrolling three building entrances on the Shoreline, said: “My job is to stop people entering; I don’t care if it’s New Year’s Eve. If people want to get into a fight, I will fight them no problem.”

A spokesperson for Nakheel declined to comment. Typical Nakheel. Why appoint a spokesperson and have them say nothing?

Nakheel stopped homeowners and tenants at the Palm Jumeirah property from using its beach, swimming pools and gyms in December, as it moved to privatise the communal facilities.

The developer plans to charge households up to AED12,000 a year for access to these parts of the man- made island, a move opposed by homeowners who claim they own the facilities.

The homeowners all acquired property on the Palm based on the clear unedrstanding that they would have access to the beaches as part of their property purchase.

Dubai’s property watchdog, RERA, said last month that Nakheel had no right to deny residents access to communal facilities.

“By law, no one can stop an owner or a registered tenant from using the communal areas once they have paid service fees,” Marwan bin Ghalita, CEO of RERA, told Bloomberg.

“If you bought something based on an agreement with a developer, he can’t change it.”