Thailand update 31 May 2010

I have to confess to being tired of Thai politics. I was arguing online with a brainwashed friend last night. The reality is that most Thais are more interested in shopping than democracy - and as long as they can shop in peace they have few other concerns - at least in the city - and Bangkok is the heart of the nation's economy.

So why not simply forget about politics or and from of meaningful democracy?

Just accept that Thailand is an army state and let an army led and appointed government tell everyone what to do. We are basically there already.

Democracy across most of South East Asia is either none existent or a sham - why should Thailand be any different. Malaysia, Cambodia and Singapore elect governments under effectively one party rule with a compliant media. Burma is run by a military junta. Vietnam is run by the army on behalf of the communist party.

Thailand is no different; just because it is a favourite tourist destination does not mean it has to accept western style democracy. It has failed and moved backwards since the 1997 constitution.

So here are the latest news items - though I will drop this update from next month unless there is some major news:

39 still missing after protest - Bangkok Post

The King and US - American Spectator

The death of Tolerance in Thailand - WSJ

Thailand hunts for political center - WSJ

Smiles suspended - FT

Thaksin lawyer prepares war crimes case - ABC

What happened at Wat Pathum Wanaram? - Bangkok Pundit's analysis

Du doesn't do.

30 May 2010

I am sorry Du - Whatever you do or say I just don't believe you. Like too many Dubai based companies it is the lack of honesty with customers and the public that is so depressing.

Du CEO Osman Sultan told Arabian Business that the company will “definitely” broadcast this year’s World Cup tournament.

The tournament starts on June 11.

Sultan told Arabian Business that: “This is the greatest sporting event in the world and yes, we will show it for sure – definitely.” He added that an official announcement would be made, giving more details, in the "next few days".

Which is exactly what a Du representative told me over a week ago.

The World Cup is every four years. In much of Dubai Du has a TV and internet monopoly. Why does it take four years to plan coverage of the world's biggest sporting event?

Even if there is an announcement in the next few days you can expect pricing to be excessive; and that getting the service permissioned on your tv will be a nightmare of dealing with Du's almost non existent customer service.

The management of Du should collectively be ashamed of themselves.
 

Blind, deaf and dumb

30 May 2010 - The Bangkok Post

Do you know how well the international media have been covering Thailand's political crisis? Very well, indeed - so well that even the European Parliament has adopted their outlook on Thailand's political crisis.

Watching a video of the European Parliament session held on May 20, one day after the crisis came to a boiling point on May 19, I thought to myself: ''Wow, do they still also believe the world is flat?'' The people who have reported the situation ''inaccurately'' have done a very good job of it indeed.

The session on the ''Violence in Thailand'' was about 21 minutes long, though you will find that after a while all the delegates were just repeating each other, so I've summed up key points that were made during the session:

1) This conflict is the red shirts versus yellow shirt government supporters.

See, when the foundation of your understanding is already wrong, there's not much hope for anything else that follows. No, it's not red versus yellow. The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) supports Sondhi Limthongkul and the New Politics Party, which isn't a part of the coalition government. They haven't done anything in this crisis other than sit on the sideline talking tough and making threats. They condemned the government's handling of the situation at every turn.

It's just factually wrong - and I'll tell you something else that's factually wrong. The PAD's name - going by the preaching of their leaders, the movement should be called the People's Alliance for ''Limited'' Democracy.

2) There's mass censorship, the media has been blocked.

No, only the red media has been blocked. But to be fair, it's a double standard. If the government is to block the red media, then it should also block the yellow media. Better yet, it shouldn't block any media. But definitely, there wasn't mass blocking of any media.

3) The government should've applied the road map.

How could they? The UDD turned down the road map. Somebody forgot to report that part. Can you waltz on the dance floor if your lady has a sprained ankle? It takes two.

4) All citizens should enjoy a free election.

Indeed, and all citizens were about to enjoy a free election on Nov 14. I had my ID card ready, all excited to do my democratic duty - but somebody changed their mind.

5) They spoke out against Emergency Law.

Bombings and shootings in the streets, the occupation of the business and shopping district causing millions in damage daily, putting people out of jobs, out of businesses, attempting to take over ThaiCom, the communication lifeline of the country - was none of this reported by the international media in the months prior to May 19?

If this happened in another country, what would you want to declare if not Emergency Law? Would you make a declaration of love instead?

On an interesting note, one delegate said perhaps her words, her description of the Thai political crisis, were ''simple and naive'' - well, perhaps that was the most accurate thing said in that particular European Parliament session.

So how could the European Parliament session, consisting of some of the most advanced and enlightened countries in the world - many the very bastions of democracy be so simplistic, so naive and so factually wrong about what's going on here?

For one thing, the international media has done a wonderful job. Secondly, Thaksin Shinawatra - who I always held as the most capable, the most creative and the savviest of any Thai prime minister in modern times - has also done a wonderful job with his marketing machine. And thirdly, the Abhisit government has done a poor job of it.

The entire foreign policy of Thailand has been one thing: Let's catch Thaksin. Let's hound Thaksin. Let's talk badly about Thaksin. It's no wonder the world sympathises with Thaksin. He's like Leonardo DiCaprio in Catch Me If You Can - without the good looks, of course.

The world knows he's on the run for having done some very bad things, and yet the authorities have stumbled and bungled in such a clueless way that the supposed criminal is being seen as a hero.

When speaking to the world, perhaps it's best to have ''friends'' helping us. Based on findings by the Bangkok Post, most foreign investors in Thailand do understand the situation at one level or another and are concerned with a number of issues that would help to restore Thailand in the eyes of the world, politically and economically.

The government must restore law and order. Establish the rule of law. The government must start the process of reconciliation, by creating an independent and transparent investigation into what happened. The government must launch a strong PR campaign to restore confidence among foreign investors.

I'm one of those who believe that a PR campaign should be based on real substance, not a silly song and dance - and those recommendations by foreign investors are valid and I'm sure a lot of us Thais share similar sentiments. So what the government should and must do is, well, get it done - then we can advertise to the world how fair and just Thailand is.

Regarding the rule of law, for example, provincial governors and police chiefs have been transferred to inactive posts for their incompetence in handling the crisis. Sounds good, but who then will take responsibility for the incompetence shown in Bangkok? Another example. The yellow shirt PAD's case has been with the Attorney General's office for two years now. What's holding it up? Who's holding it up? I don't know. But this I do know: Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has the power, the duty and the responsibility to speed it up.

No need for a song and dance about the evil of Thaksin and the reds. That's just going to make them look heroic. No need for a song and dance about the wonderful democracy we have in Thailand. We barely have a democracy, and much work needs to be done before we can boast about it.

And definitely, don't go for the song and dance about Thailand returning to normal. No. What Thailand was will never be, nor should it ever be, again. We should evolve. An important point I would like to make here is: Bangkok is rebuilding, the middle class and the elites grabbed a broom and cleaned up Ratchaprasong, we have a huge grand sale to the joy of everyone - while everything and anything right now is focusing on Bangkok rising from the ashes. Upcountry they are holding funerals for their fallen. They are weeping, mourning, angry. They are disenfranchised. We need reconciliation.

Thailand is not only Bangkok. We are 65 million strong. If we ignore and neglect our brothers and sisters upcountry, history will repeat itself. The motto ''Together We Can'' that is the hippest phrase around Bangkok these days shouldn't pertain to only Bangkokians, but every Thai.

The rule of law - fair and just, swift, severe and certain - will provide stability and will lead the way towards reconciliation. The European parliament and the world may be misinformed, but it's not blind, deaf or dumb. It's up to us to show them the truth.

But if we want to present to the world the ''right'' image, a PR campaign must be based on real substance, not just a song and dance - Lady Justice may be blind, but she's neither deaf nor dumb.
 

Thailand update - 29 May 2010

Raising a red flag in Thailand - Time

Dark shadow over the Thai smile - The Globe and Mail

Thailand tries to go after financial backers of 'red shirts' - Washington Post

Ex-Thai PM now 'Richest Montenegrin' - Edmonton Journal

Why Thai Politics is No Longer Normal - Sovereign Myth (also the Melbourne Age) - Michael K Connors

The curfew will probably end today. It should. Bangkok was busy yesterday. A nation rejoicing in being able to shop again. Siam Paragon was packed. Platinum was heaving. One reason Siam Paragon is packed is that no one can go to Central World, except for die hard photographers looking at the burned out buildings.

It is graphic when you see the damage up close. The gutted buildings still smell on burned plastics. How did they burn so easily? What happened to sprinkler systems. And who did start the fires?  Who gave the orders? Who chose the buildings that were to be burned? Central World on the south and east sides is totally destroyed. The Siam Theatre burned out. The shops around Siam Theatre gutted. Their owners without the time to rescue anything are now working from tented covers along the street trying to keep their business alive.

There are pictures of the damage here.

Sadly with the government using the destruction to justify their clamp down on the red shirt leaders and their supporters we will probably never know the truth about what happened and why the buildings were unprotected and burned to easily.

In Bangkok, scapegoats of the rude and fatuous

27 May 2010 Roger Mitton -Today Online I could not have written this better - exactly on the issue of balance.

"My street here in Bangkok was barricaded at both ends last week, as gunshots and explosions rang out almost continuously. Dense black smoke hung overhead from burning tyres and torched shops, banks and restaurants nearby.

Electricity and water were cut off. We were "locked down" at 6pm and a night curfew imposed. Most of our neighbours fled.

It was not nice.

But it has passed and we survived. Now, however, a different kind of unpleasantness has surfaced: An attempt to malign analysts and journalists, particularly the foreign media, by saying they never understood what was going on during the mayhem in Bangkok and thus made a hash of reporting it. It is the old blame-the-messenger routine from those who benefit from the status quo.

Last Friday, Arglit Boonyai, editor of the Bangkok Post's weekly supplement, Guru, wrote: "The international press is making a complete mess of their reporting of the situation." Letters in the Bangkok Post that day said the "international media has been so one-sided" and referred to the "childish and misinformed reporting by both the CNN and BBC".

The well-known novelist and artistic director of the Bangkok Opera, Somtow Sucharitkul, issued a critical piece in his popular blog entitled Don't Blame Dan Rivers.

Depicting CNN correspondent Dan Rivers as being typical of the foreign press, Somtow wrote: "A lot of people here are astonished and appalled at the level of irresponsibility and inaccuracy shown by such major news sources as CNN."

Actually, I was a bit astonished and appalled at the level of hateful insults being tossed out by those who ought to know better.

The nadir came when the Bangkok Post's Sunday columnist Andrew Biggs, writing from the safety of Los Angeles, called CNN "the world's biggest mouthpiece for the Red Shirts". Tearing into the network's commentators (neither of whom I have ever met), Biggs wrote: "I have watched helplessly as Dan-somebody and the aptly-named Sara Snide - or is it Snider? - reporting (sic) breathlessly from the Red Shirt camp."

He foamed onward: "I don't damn Dan and Sara for being deluded or even misguided ... I don't like them for being lazy." He even stooped to asserting that the duo made up their reporting as they went along.

That was not the end of the nastiness. On Monday, Bangkok Post commentator Philip J Cunningham lambasted CNN for giving "undue airtime to overly made-up, puffy-haired announcers with fancy graphics tools who make ignorant comments about Thailand".

Wow. Journalists sticking the knife into colleagues who have been doing their best under harrowing, dangerous conditions.

And the basis for these intemperate and nastily personal attacks?

It is that foreign reporters, while not openly supportive of the red-shirted protesters, did give credence to their principal gripe that Thailand is run by a privileged elite that cares little for the welfare of poor folk in the hinterlands.

Naturally, people like Somtow and Arglit, and even Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his colleagues, who are members of the Bangkok bourgoisie, did not like this.

So they responded by saying it was simplistic and belied a lack of understanding of the situation. From there, it was a small step to say the foreign press was irresponsible, inaccurate, and made a hash of its reporting.

But that is preposterous. In fact, the international media was exemplary in its brave and largely unbiased coverage of this apprehended revolution. Regrettably, the same cannot be said of the domestic press and government-controlled radio and TV stations.

As a columnist in Thai Rath wrote: "The Thai media's coverage of the Red Shirts' protest has been very disappointing. To get the truth, the Thai public must rely on foreign newspapers and TV broadcasters, such as the BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera."

So, let's stop this spiteful hunt for imaginary scapegoats in the foreign press and start taking action. As the Bangkok Post stated on Friday: "(We) should not forgive. The actions of some among the Red Shirts of the past several weeks were unconscionable."

That is true. Of the mayhem last week, the Post continued: "Someone organised it, someone funded it and someone supported it. And they must be punished."

That is also true. And the same punishment must apply to the Yellow Shirt mobsters, who earlier occupied Government House for months and trashed it, who sought violently to invade Parliament, and who shut down Bangkok's airports and shattered the tourism industry and the nation's image.

Yet so far not a single Yellow Shirt leader has been punished. When asked about it, Prime Minister Abhisit says the investigation is in the hands of the police. But it has been almost two years and it is not a case for Sherlock Holmes. We know who these people are and what they did.

They set the template for the Reds.

So instead of wasting time making nasty and tasteless personal attacks on foreign journalists, the likes of Somtow and Arglit, Biggs and Cunningham should campaign for the punishment of both Red and Yellow Shirt leaders equally.

Let us have the head honchos of both sides put in the same jail together - as far away from Bangkok as possible.

And when that is done, the puffy-haired Biggs and the aptly-named Somtow and the overly-made-up Arglit can treat Dan and Sara, as well as the superlative BBC crew, to a fully deserved drink or two."

Roger Mitton is a former Asiaweek correspondent and former bureau chief in Hanoi and Washington for The Straits Times. He has reported on South-east Asia for 25 years.
 

Dealing with 'the devil', the reds and looking within

27 May 2010 - from the Bangkok Post - and a sensible (but probably forlorn)  plea for reason and fairness.

"The images that have been broadcast around the world of Thai military forces breaking through barricades set up by red shirt protesters in Bangkok's central business district (Ratchaprasong) and of the subsequent rampage by red shirts, with major buildings in this district destroyed by arson, are truly shocking not only for Thai people but also for foreigners like myself who have been deeply engaged with the country for a long time.

Many Bangkokians and supporters of the Abhisit government around the country point to a very particular cause of the dramatic and tragic events of April-May 2010. This cause is one person, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin has become in their eyes the devil incarnate - a demon-like figure very comparable to the witches in traditional societies who are seen as the causes of all misfortunes and maladies. If only he could be permanently removed from further involvement in Thai politics, they believe, then Thailand could return to a calm, cohesive society.

There is no question that Thaksin is culpable for using his wealth and influence to support the red shirts not only for peaceful demonstrations but also for the use of violence.

However, if the Abhisit government and others involved in promoting reconciliation continue to focus solely on Thaksin as the only cause of the conflict, they will be making a strategic mistake. The path to reconciliation will soon lead to a dead end, and further conflict will ensue.

The world economic crisis has had a particularly strong negative impact on the rural Northeast of Thailand. This area is "rural" because most families continue to engage in some agriculture.

However, the basis of the economy of this region is not agriculture, and has not been for at least 20 years. Instead, most households depend on income from family members who work in the industrial and service sectors of the Thai economy. Hundreds of thousands of mainly male workers have taken up contract work in Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, the Gulf States and Israel. In fact, it is likely that a higher percentage of northeasterners have passports than do members of the urban lower middle class.

While the global economic crisis that began in 2007 has had only a modest impact on the urban middle class, it has had a major impact on northeastern families. There is now a large unemployed or underemployed population, most of whom are relatively young men. This population is the source of the shock troops of the red shirts - those who actually carried out the arson both in Bangkok and upcountry and who were most defiant in confronting the security forces.

The Abhisit government does not even seem to be aware of this group of young men - perhaps because as unemployed or underemployed members of the informal sector, they are invisible in terms of official statistics.

Unless the Thai government does something comparable to what was done after urban riots in the United States and elsewhere, the disaffection and discontent of northeastern young men will continue with or without Thaksin's support.

In those other cases, governments sponsored job-training, stimulus funding for projects that offer significant employment, and support for community-based groups.

A second factor that must be taken into account if there is really to be progress along the path to reconciliation, is the deep split in society along a combination of class and ethno-regional lines. Support for the red shirt movement is very strong throughout rural northeastern and northern Thailand in part because villagers and their kinsmen who work in Bangkok and elsewhere are aware of being constantly denigrated by members of the middle class, particularly in Bangkok.

This denigration has deep historical roots. The people of the Northeast and North were seen by Central Thai as "Lao" when they were first integrated into the new nation-state of Thailand. Although the people of these regions have long since come through participation in mass education and consumption of Bangkok-based media to identify as "Thai" who are also Khon Isan (northeastern Thai) and Khon Muang (northern Thai), older negative images persist of these people being somehow less "Thai" than Bangkokians.

Negative images, especially of northeasterners, have been used often in films and TV dramas. In the past few years, people of these regions have been branded over and over again by commentators on ASTV, the television network of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), in many Bangkok newspapers, and in hundreds of blogs and Facebook pages as being stupid "buffaloes" and even more vulgar characterisations. Somehow those who generate such media depictions seem to believe that "villagers" are uninformed, and unaware of these characterisations.

On the contrary, they are very much aware of them, and this constant denigration has become one of the primary drivers of the conflict.

The Abhisit government has worked assiduously, although not always successfully, to shut down community radio stations and the websites which promote a red shirt perspective, arguing that such outlets have stirred up violence and hatred. At the same time, it has done nothing about controlling the hate-mongering that takes place on ASTV and in other media. Such is not only directed against the red shirts, but also against Malay Muslims in southern Thailand and Khmer in northeastern Thailand as well as in Cambodia.

Although the government cannot and should not attempt to control the content of the media, it can demonstrate even-handedness by prosecuting clear instances of incitement on both sides. It can also increase social sanctions against hate-mongering by supporting independent, quality media, boycotting media outlets on both sides that continuously spread divisions between Thais, and being more careful to avoid inflammatory language (such as casual use of the word "terrorist") in official pronouncements.

Members of the government, local leaders and others who are actively working for reconciliation will need all the help they can get. While the fires may have been put out, the country is still simmering. Many Bangkokians are furious about the trauma their city has experienced over the past two months, and are calling for punishment not only for those directly responsible, but also for their supporters.

At the same time, red shirt supporters have a deep, abiding anger about the death and injuries of friends and relatives, and call for revenge.

In all of this, the Buddhist value of controlling anger that is one of the Five Precepts that almost everyone in Thailand has committed themselves to, is being lost. There is even the danger that some Thais will pursue a path similar to that of the Khmer Rouge, who distorted the Buddhist ideal of curtailing one's passion into a terrifying lack of emotion when engaged in acts of violence.

It is critical that Thais rediscover the true Buddhist value of working to cool passions.

The SEA Write winning poet, Chiranan Pitpreecha, has written a beautiful poem entitled Time Out (Mot Wela) that has been set to music by the famous singer Ad Carabao. The song, soon to be widely released, warns their fellow Thai of allowing their tears to remain festering within. Instead, the song continues, Thai people should take "time out" so that passions can cool.

While it is too much to expect that those leaders on both sides who seek punishment or revenge will listen, one can hope that most Thai will heed this cry from the heart and then turn to the slow, patient work of removing the causes for conflict that immoral or amoral leaders have been exploiting."

Charles Keyes is Emeritus Professor of Anthropology and International Studies,Department of Anthropology, University of Washington.

Thailand update 27 May 2027

The Spring of Thailand's Ethnic Discontent - WSJ

Shocked family bids farewell to medic killed in Red Shirt sanctuary - The Independent

Reuters reports that the government has extended censorship against anti-govt protesters by banning four red shirt publications.

Thailand's army chief Anupong Paochina signed an order this week to ban three newspapers and one magazine associated with the "red-shirt" protesters. The bans to "protect national security" will further stifle communications by the protesters' United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD).

Breach of the bans carry a maximum jail term of two years.

The move follows the blocking of scores of websites, community radio stations and the UDD's television station, People's Channel, under a state of emergency currently in place in Bangkok and 23 provinces.

The latest bans are likely to draw criticism from media activists in a country that has slipped from 65 in the world in 2002 for press freedom to 130 in 2009, according to the Paris-based Reporters Without Borders.

The outlawed publications include the twice-weekly Truth Today newspaper, the weekly Thai Red News and Vivatha, and bi-monthly Voice of Taksin, which mimics the U.S. news magazine, Time, and is named after the protest movement's figurehead, ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

"These media outlets are not real newspapers. They are tools for groups to create chaos in the country," Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban told reporters.

And ASTV and the Manager of course are fine upstanding examples of balanced print and TV media.

flydubai's 21st is Sri Lanka

26 May 2010

flydubai, Dubai’s low cost airline, said on Wednesday that it will launch flights to Sri Lanka next month.

It is expanding its network in the Indian sub-continent with flights to the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo, starting on June 23, with tickets priced from AED450.

The Sri Lanka route is flydubai's 21st destination launch since it started operations last summer, the airline said in a statement.

Ghaith Al Ghaith, flydubai's CEO said: "We started 2010 with a determination to add new and exciting destinations to our route network. With our recent announcements of destinations as far apart as Istanbul, Lucknow, Colombo and Karachi, we have delivered on our promise to establish ourselves as an affordable, accessible airline with a professional service and a network to be proud of by the anniversary of our first flight."

The new route will target the 300,000 Sri Lankans expats currently living in the UAE as well as those looking to holiday in the tropical destination.

flydubai will operate four flights per week on Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays.
 

Thailand watch 26 May 2010

Why DPM Suthep cannot be trusted - this article on the death of an Italian journalist in the 19 May suppression of the red shirts implies that Suthep is all too willing to lie even to foreign officials.

Bangkok Proves Perilous to Journalists - WSJ

Updated: The witch hunt is on TPP

Protest Leaders Forced to Surrender in Bangkok - Denver Post - picture album

Thai Government Moves To Mute Media Opponents - VoA

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports on Wednesday issued a statement to assure tourists that political unrest in Thailand has been completely under control and order in Bangkok and other provinces has been restored. (Oh really ! Take a trip to the south...)

A guide to the perfect Thai idiot

26 May 2010 - The Bangkok Post

Now sit back and watch the abuse that is hurled at this writer. A shame, because it is a thought provoking article; yes it is probably a little over the top and yes it deals in generalisations - but no Thai or anyone living in Thailand could say that it is not without a grounding in reality.

"In 1996, three Latin Americans wrote a best-selling book in Spanish which was later translated into English as Guide to the Perfect Latin American Idiot.

Hundreds of Thai volunteers take to the streets alongside city municipal street cleaners to clean up after weeks of protest by the red shirts at Ratchaprasong in Bangkok.
Their main contention is that Latin American problems are not caused by outside influences as Latin Americans generally believe. Rather, they result mainly from actions of Latin Americans themselves.

Correcting Latin American problems, therefore, must come from Latin Americans.

Ask Thais about the causes of last week's shameful event - or of any problems in Thailand for that matter - and they will readily point the finger somewhere else, never at themselves.

I am a Thai so I am part of this well-practised response. But I now believe that if we continue with this long-running charade of self-deception, Thailand is on its way to becoming a failed state shortly.

We present Thailand as the Land of Smiles full of gentle Buddhists. We regularly give alms to monks and often make donations to temples, believing that those are selfless acts for the welfare of others.

Deep down, however, we do that only because we wish to get something in return - to go to heaven or have a richer next life. It is a trade, pure and simple, nothing kind or selfless about it.

Few of us give for the sake of giving. We are basically very selfish.

Every time we go to the temple or attend a Buddhist ceremony, we duly accept and recite the Five Precepts as a guide to our daily lives, but we leave them there, as we always make promises without ever intending to keep them.

Actually, we understand little about Buddhism.

Even among the ranks of the monks, most do not know the teachings in-depth and lead their lives accordingly - all they know is how to conduct ceremonies from which they earn easy income.

This reflects something deeper - we are generally lazy and like to take short-cuts to the sabai (do-nothing) state. Lottery tickets, therefore, always sell out at premium prices; prostitution is rampant and young women readily marry foreign pensioners.

We love to talk but rarely listen. Even when we do, we often fail to hear, as we never learn to think critically.

We cannot put up with different points of view nor can we work cooperatively.

Many of the over 30,000 Buddhist temples were built next to one another because when we disagreed with one, we just built another.

That the cooperative movement has never been successful here is another indication of our inability to tolerate different points of view.

We readily forgive, so we believe, as our most common utterance is mai pen rai (it doesn't matter) when someone makes a mistake. But that is only a reflection of the culture of indifference and ready rationalisation.

We can always cite a well-known proverb, a famous poem or a sage's sharp utterance to justify everything we do.

We complain so much about corruption. But we do little about it.

Worse, we keep electing the same corrupt politicians because they have money and influence from which we hope to benefit.

Survey after survey shows that the majority of us do not mind corruption as long as we get something out of it.

One of the surveys last year showed that almost 85% of us believed that cheating was a normal business practice, making us practically a nation of thieves.

When I raised the matter in this column, I received the angriest responses from fellow Thais, using expressions so colourful that they should not be printed nor uttered within earshot of other humans.

This long-running self-deception has created so much moral deficit, to employ Joseph Stiglitz's terminology, that has put Thailand into a state of moral crisis for some time now. Some of the symptoms of this state are the economic crisis of 1997 and the protests culminating in last week's events.

Of course, we will never admit this, for we are perfect and will continue to be very angry when a foreigner utters something non-complementary about us.

But I do hope that the events of last week shock most of us into re-examining ourselves, our values, and start reducing the moral deficit as well as trying to generate some moral surplus: doing more genuinely voluntary work for the common good similar to the street cleaning carried out by Bangkokians last weekend, but on a regular basis."

Du's World Cup balls-up

26 May 2010

In most of the world the football world cup is shown on free to air networks; basically inline with FIFA directives. Not in the UAE. Worse still anyone on eth DU network will be unable to watch the games unless a last minute deal is done as the company has so far failed to reach agreement on broadcasting the event.

Broadcasting rights across the region are owned by Al Jazeera Sport, and currently be accessed either by purchasing an Al Jazeera Sports card or through Etisalat’s pay TV E-Vision. Both are charging existing customers about $100 to upgrade to the World Cup service.

However Du – which is the exclusive television service provider to most new developments in Dubai – has still to agree a deal, less than three weeks before the tournament starts.

Du provides internet, television and land phone services through a fibre optic network to new buildings such as Executive Towers. No alternative service is available.

Du customers are connected to the tv service through a decoder box without a slot for the Al Jazeera Sports cards. Thousands of homes in the UAE will not receive any World Cup matches.

A spokesman for du told Arabian Business: “As of now we do not have an update regarding the World Cup.” It start in just two weeks.

Du’s call centre said that “talks were on-going” but couldn’t confirm when they would be concluded.

Al Jazeera announced last month that it had dedicated several extra channels to broadcast the tournament.

However, UAE soccer fans are getting increasingly concerned that they may be on one of the only places in the world where the tournament won’t be shown on live television.

One fan told Arabian Business: “I’m actually starting to panic. There are just days to go before it kicks off, and as yet I have no idea whether I will be able to watch it. I have been calling Du three times a day for the past month, and they keep telling me this will be sorted tomorrow.”

Earlier this month, Grand Cinemas announced it had struck a deal with Al Jazeera, to show the tournament’s matches live on its cinema screens.

Andy Fordham, project manager at Grand Cinemas, told Arabian Business that the UAE-based cinema operator plans to sell around 4,800 tickets per match throughout the tournament.

Prices will start at AED35 ($9.52) and will increase as the tournament progresses, with tickets for the final priced at AED100 ($27.22).

Packages for bulk and group bookings will also be available. Tickets are due to go on sale on June 2 and can be booked through the Grand Cinemas website.
 

This should be bye bye Salwan

26 May 2010

Homeowners will be able to take complete control of the management of their buildings and communities after guidelines allowing the implementation of the emirate’s long-awaited “strata law” were released yesterday.

The law will mean that homeowners associations will be able to select companies in charge of the upkeep of facilities such as lifts, foyers, swimming pools and gardens, taking that decision out of the hands of developers and potentially reducing residents’ costs.

“The implications of releasing these guidelines are profound and far-reaching for owners, developers and Dubai’s property sector in general,” said Sultan bin Butti bin Mejren, the director general of the Land Department, adding that the recommendations would “immediately transform the nature of ownership of a major slice of Dubai’s total property stock while introducing a new form of ownership blending freehold and commonhold of communal areas”.

The law allows homeowners to select their property management firms and set maintenance fees. It also more clearly delineates rights of ownership between owner and developer. Although the law was introduced in 2007, in the absence of the guidelines, the rights of many homeowners associations have not been enforced.

The amount paid on service fees has been a bone of contention for residents in some developments in Dubai, where property prices have fallen by as much as 50 per cent since the end of 2008.

A small group of homeowners in Discovery Gardens petitioned Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, in November over long-running complaints about service and maintenance fees. They said they were spurred into action after receiving information that Nakheel, Discovery Gardens’s master developer, had asked the Dubai Real Estate Regulatory Agency for permission to charge Dh21.85 a square foot in annual fees, which comes to more than Dh20,000 (US$5,445) for a typical one-bedroom flat.

Although details of the guidelines, which will also apply to commercial buildings, have not been revealed, experts say they are a major leap forward.

Michael Aldendorff, who owns a property in Discovery Gardens, said he would like more clarity.

“My only concern is that this has been drawn up in isolation of homeowners,” he said, adding that he and fellow owners had recently received an invitation from RERA to attend a one-day workshop at which the strata law would be explained, at a cost of Dh3,000 ($816) a person. Emaar Properties, the country’s largest developer, said last November that it was prepared to abandon its property management system once the strata law was in effect, adding that it would recognise “the right of the owners’ associations to choose management firms and service providers”.

Stephen Kelly, a strata title specialist with the international law firm Clyde and Company in Dubai, said: “It’s an extremely positive step for the industry. Developers and their advisers are eagerly waiting to view the directions of the guidelines so they can start the implementation process.”

Ahmad Kasem, the chief development officer of Cayan, the developer behind the Dubai Marina towers Jewels and Dorra Bay, said developers and owners should work together during the first year after homes are handed over in order to deal with any nagging problems.

“After that, I believe the developer should immediately leave it to the associations,” Mr Kasem said.

People familiar with the regulations, which have undergone numerous modifications since the strata law was enacted in 2007, said the move would also give owner associations the right to sell the properties of members who fail to pay maintenance fees so that arrears could be recovered.

For the average homeowner, the strata law is about service charges. These annual fees can reach tens of thousands of dirhams in some developments in Dubai.

The fees, which are often charged directly by the developer of the property, pay for the upkeep of commonly owned spaces such as lobbies, hallways, landscaping, pools and even private transit lines.

The strata law, decreed in 2007 but with regulations only now being issued, sets out a framework for how owners deal with these jointly owned spaces.

It provides for the creation of homeowner associations, which operate like boards of directors, to hire maintenance companies for the upkeep of their buildings and grounds. Analysts say this subtle change in the way properties are governed can lead to significant cost cuts for homeowners.

Powered by self-interest, the homeowner associations are looking for a balance between low cost and high quality maintenance of properties.

Without the law, property developers can charge whatever fee they wish without disclosing how the money is being used.

With the new regulations in place, homeowners will be able to democratically elect representatives to make decisions.
 

The Thaksin terrorism charge needs evidence

25 May 2010

I am no great Thaksin fan. Then, I am no great Abhisit fan.

Today's terrorism charge against Thaksin appears hasty and based on politics and not reality.

The Bangkok Post reports:

The Criminal Court today approved the Department of Special Investigation's request for an arrest warrant for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on terrorism charges.

The Nation as you can see rejoiced....this is the Wednesday 26th cover.

The court approved the warrant after examining testimony given by DSI chief Tharit Pengdit, his deputy Pol Col Narat Savetanant and Pol Lt-Col Thawal Mangkhang, the DSI chief investigator, on Monday. The three presented the court with additional documents and clips of Thaksin speaking from abroad via video link to red-shirt rallies.

The court examination on Monday was held in camera. No reporters or public were allowed in the courtroom.

So the evidence was presented secretly. ThaiPBS late news showed one of the videos that the DSI presented as evidence. It was of Thaksin stating to the reds that if the army commits violence against the reds then they should gather at provincial halls. He does not tell them to commit arson. Surely not sufficient evidence for a warrant.

It is incidentally also a long time since he last called in by video to the demonstrations. Which makes his link to the violence even less clear. Checking phone records of the red shirt leaders may be instructive.

According to Matichon, the arrest warrant was issued as Thaksin likely committed offences against Sections 135/1, 135/2, and 135/3 of the Criminal Code. Below is Bangkok Pundit'ss translation of these provisions:

Section 135/1 A person commits an act which is a criminal offence [if they commit one] of the following:

(1) [The person] commits an act of violence, or commits any act which causes harm to [a person's] life, or serious harm to [a person's] body, or the liberty of any person,

(2) [The person] commits an act causing serious damage to a public transportation system, a telecommunications system, or to any infrastructure which has a public benefit, [or]

(3) [The person] commits an act causing damage to the property of any state, or of any person, or to the environment which has caused or is likely to cause significant economic damage.

If such acts are committed with the intention to threaten, or to compel the Thai Government, a foreign government, or an international organisation to do or abstain from doing any act which will cause serious damage or to cause disorder by creating widespread fear among the public [then] that person has committed a terrorist act.

[That person] shall be punished by death, life imprisonment or a term of imprisonment between three years to twenty years, and a fine between 60,000 Baht to 1,000,000 Baht.

Any act of demonstrating, rallying, protesting, opposing or [being part of a] movement to demand the state to assist or to obtain justice, which is an exercise of [a person's] liberty as prescribed in the Constitution, is not a terrorist act

So what action has Thaksin taken that could be proven beyond a reasonable doubt to be terrorism. He spoke by video link to the rallies  But does that cause damage? Under the statute he would actually have to commit the offence.

As the Financial Times notes the Thai government has so far failed to persuade any country to extradite Mr Thaksin under any of the pre-existing charges, and given that a number of countries have laws prohibiting the extradition of suspects to face charges that could result in the death penalty, these new charges could actually make Mr Thaksin safer from arrest.

The next charge is under Section 135/2 which says a person who:

(1) Threatens to commit a terrorist act by [showing] behaviour which is convincing enough to believe that the person will actually do as threatened, or

(2) Mobilises people or weapons, procures or collects property, gives or receives terrorist training, makes any other preparations or conspires with others to commit a terrorist act or any offence which is a part of plan to commit a terrorist act or incite the public [any person] to participate in a terrorist act, or knows that a person will commit a terrorist act [and] does some act to help to conceal it.

That person shall be punished with a term of imprisonment between two years to ten years, and a fine between 40,000 Baht to 200,000 Baht (emphasis added)

The charge against Thaksin could be under this section. Incitement does not mean Thaksin has to be physically present, but they are going to need more than videos telling people to gather at provincial halls if the army is violent towards the reds. Alternatively, they could go after Thaksin for a general conspiracy charge, but they would need to have evidence of conspiring to commit terrorist acts rather than generalisations.

And under Section 135/3 a person who is a supporter [or accessory] of the commission of an offence in Section 135/1 or Section 135/2 shall receive the same punishment as the principal offender. The only proof needed here is that Thaksin knew of the principal offence at the time he was providing support.

To proceed with an extradition request it is likely there will need to be an order from the Office of the Attorney-General first to proceed with the prosecution.

PM Abhisit rather naively plays up the international anti - terrorism message. “For terrorism, it’s clearer and the international community sees it as an important issue,” the prime minister told reporters in Bangkok today. “It’s more understandable.”

The government continues to allege that Thaksin orchestrated the two-month occupation of central Bangkok that ended May 19th. Thaksin denies the terrorism charges.

The question that the Nation and others fail to ask is why the authorities were able to issue arrest warrants for Thaksin so quickly, but it is 18 months and no arrest warrants for terrorism offences have been issued for the PAD leaders in relation to the airport seizure.

The quickness of the investigation reeks of political expediency and can be seen as part of a wider crackdown on all goverment opponents.

What I fail to understand is why they want to get him back to Thailand. His return will be a rallying call to his supporters and a cause for more and potentially violent riots. The trial would attract massive international media attention on a case that could simply end up as a show trial.

By way of another example of the current witch hunt the CRES ordered the arrest of Prof. Suthachai Yimprasert, Professor at Department of History, Faculty of Arts, Chulalongkorn University. The Professor is alleged to be part of a plot to overthrow the monarchy and the authorities explain the arrest is to prevent Mr. Suthachai and others from organizing terrorist act which violates the emergency decree.

He stood and spoke on a stage at the red shirt rally and is now in jail. Meanwhile Kasit stood on the stage and spoke at the yellow shirt airport occupation and he is now Thailand's foreign minister. Anyone doubt double standards?
 

How bad is the UK debt?

25 May 2010

This great graphic from the Independent tells you all that you need to know. gbp 6 billion of cots cuts are no more than a scratch for all the political noise that is being made !

Dubai Holding may be next to restructure debt

25 May 2010 - Reuters

"The likelihood of a debt restructuring of Dubai Holding, a conglomerate owned by Dubai's ruler, is mounting due to its exposure to the property sector and cash flow problems, an analyst told Reuters Insider.

Dubai Holding is seen as the next subject of the emirate's debt restructuring programme which started with Dubai World in November, Saud Masud, head of research for the Middle East and North Africa at bank UBS, said in an interview.

"We believe Dubai Holding has roughly $15 billion in loans and bonds but this does not include any off balance liabilities arising from investor or end-user default on properties that have dramatically declined in 18 months," Masud said.

"There is a clear cash flow risk in Dubai and I wouldn't be surprised if the same holds true for Dubai Holding," he said.

Dubai Holding, owned by the emirate's rule Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, holds a substantial portfolio of brands in the property and hospitality sectors, organised under three main groupings: Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group (DHCOG), Dubai International Capital and Dubai Group.

A debt restructuring of Dubai Holding would further dent Dubai's reputation following the shock of Dubai World's difficulties, Masud said.

The Investment Corporation of Dubai, or ICD, is the third, large holding company that contains assets controlled by the ruling family.

"I think the prestige risk is considerably higher with Dubai Holding as compared to ICD or Dubai World given its direct linkage to the head of the Dubai's ruling family," he said.

Dubai Holding may struggle to service debt and keep enough working capital at the same time, making a debt restructuring crucial, he said.

Concerns about the overall debt burden of Dubai's state-linked companies flared last November, after Dubai announced a standstill on repaying $26 billion in debt as it restructured conglomerate Dubai World. It unveiled a $9.5 billion rescue plan for the firm in March.

The UAE's central bank governor Sultan bin Nasser Al Suweidi said on Monday the worst was behind the emirate and that he could not foresee the outcome of a potential Dubai Holding restructuring.

Dubai Holding's unit DHCOG delayed its 2009 results in April while trading in its Islamic bond, listed on Nasdaq Dubai, was halted on May 2. The delay was extended on May 16, with DHCOG citing complexities in consolidating results of its units.

The Financial Times reported this month that three companies within Dubai Holding, including DHCOG, had engaged advisers ahead of a potential plan to restructure billions in debt."

An open letter to the red shirts

25 May 2010 By Somtow Sucharitkul - The Nation (an unusual opinion piece for the Nation)

"I am writing you this letter because in the past six weeks I have often been angry. I've often been disappointed, disillusioned and frustrated. But there was only one moment in this entire agonising sequence that moved me to tears. That was when your leader, Veera Musigapong, surrendered to the authorities and spoke of his dreams, his disappointments and his enduring hopes.

As the smoke dies down, you are going to be told that you were lied to, duped, tricked, bought and betrayed; that you were tools of evil men who did not truly care about your fate; that you are terrorists, arsonists, destroyers of our culture, king-haters. It will be said that you destroyed the country's international image and obstructed its economic recovery. Worst of all, you will be told that you are all ignorant people who have misused your political voices because you didn't understand democracy.

I am afraid that in many cases, the people who say these things will be telling the truth. The instant rebirth that you wanted for our country has turned out to be more of a false dawn. Many crimes have been committed and both sides have hidden important facts from each other.

Even though these things are in many cases true, I want you to know that they have not invalidated other truths: The truths that you carried in your hearts when you set out to air your grievances in a peaceful demonstration. The doors that should have opened for you years ago, when this country became a democracy, have opened too slowly. The education that you need to become equal participants in society has been withheld too long. The voice that you have always had has been discovered too late, and because it was so long pent up, it has been expressed destructively. And the worst destruction was not that of a few shopping malls and banks; it was the destruction you wreaked upon yourselves.

But I want you to know that when it comes to the liberation of the human spirit, history is on your side. The road towards a more perfect democracy may be difficult, but it is unstoppable. You did not lose this war. But I hope you will have learned from it. The question is not whether the war will be won, but how it will be won: Through mayhem and bloodshed, or through slow, painful discussion and compromise - through evolution - the civilised way.

It may be hard for you to believe this, but many people who have been painted as your enemies share your most cherished dreams. For example, I sincerely believe that Prime Minister Abhisit comes philosophically closer to those dreams than a number of your leaders. If he did not - if his mindset had been that of some of the military dictators Thailand has had in the past - the carnage of the last few days would have been unconscionable.

I also believe that many of your leaders, like Veera, share the hopes and dreams of those not affiliated with your movement, because they are, by and large, the hopes and dreams of all Thais: To live in peace, not to spend your life in a mindless struggle to survive, to have the same chance as anyone else at realising your aspirations and becoming fulfilled human beings.

It may be too soon to hope for this, because the mutual anger and distrust are still too great. If Veera is found guilty of any crimes, justice will have to be served, just as much as if Suthep were found to have abused his authority. But it would be a beautiful thing to see idealists like Veera playing a role in an Abhisit government. Such a compromise occurred in Italy decades ago, and it saved the country from a potentially disastrous internecine struggle.

You have changed Thailand forever by discovering, and showing your fellow citizens, that you have the right to think, and to speak, and to act. I urge you to go further. Keep thinking. But think for yourselves. Don't think what you're told to think. Speak what you think, not what you are told to speak. And act with your minds as well as your hearts, and in the interests of all, even those whom you disagree with.

Not many people in Bangkok would feel grateful to you at this moment. But I do want to thank you. What you did was really important, though perhaps not for the reasons you think. And I want to explain why.

When you build a road, you will sometimes come to a mountain. To get to the other side, you may have to go around it. You may have to dig a tunnel. Or you may have to blow up the mountain. Thailand has come to that mountain. But for at least two decades, no one has been willing to go around, dig, or blow it up. Yet everyone knows we must get through. The mountain is in the way. Some past governments have stolen your money to build golden hot-air balloons so that a few individuals could get across, not caring if the rest were stranded. Others have talked and talked, but the mountain is still there. Of course you are impatient.

You didn't blow up the mountain, but the tragic events that have unfolded have convinced everyone that it is time to move on. Your people - and the soldiers, too - did not suffer and die in vain. Though we seem to be in darkness and chaos, a fuller democracy is closer today than it has been at any time during the Thaksin administration and all its successors. There will come a time when people will realise that you opened their eyes, that you all contributed to this major turning point in Thailand's history. In time, the rest of the nation will understand it, and come to acknowledge it, and even embrace it. For in embracing those we thought our enemies, we really embrace ourselves."

Somtow Sucharitkul is a renowned Thai novelist and composer.
 

Thailand Update - 25 May 2010

Articles

Thai officials use a powerful visual to explain violence - Washington Post

Off the Middle Path - New York Times

Off the Middle Path, Still Angry and Divided - New York Times

As Thai monarchy's power wanes, king still revered - Associated Press

The Failure of Thailand's Democracy - New York Times

Thailand and the Criminalization of Dissent - Robert Amsterdam (lawyer to Thaksin Shinawtra)

Thailand's real road to freedom starts here - Globe and Mail

The Washington Post comments on the briefing given to the media and foreign officials by the Thai government displaying red shirt weapons:

"The facts speak for themselves," said Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, speaking at a Bangkok infantry base during an exhibition of weapons and other items that the Thai military says it captured from vanquished "red shirt" protesters.

Among the weapons they deployed: eight Chinese-made AK-47 assault rifles, five rusty American rifles, a dozen grenades, a crossbow, an orange plastic bucket full of wooden slingshots and a membership card from a Las Vegas casino.

********************************
The Bangkok Post reports more media controls; as the government plans to establish an independent media monitoring organisation as part of the road map. The governments says the changes are aimed at preventing the media from being used to create social divisions..ie please only publish what the government wants you to publish. But what does this mean for ASTV and Manager for the yellows and for the red shirt media, TV and radio stations.

But the Thai censorship and lack of news was so poor that many Thai citizens and residents felt compelled to watch events unfold on foreign news channels? Even if they did not like the message that they were getting - especially from CNN.

On many occasions, during critical periods of the recent crisis, the main Thai terrestrial channels were showing soap-operas and game shows. The networks did not go to 24/7 news coverage and the main coverage of the red shirt crisis was from the CRES.

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The Criminal Court on Tuesday approved an arrest warrant for the deposed premier on terrorism charges in connection with the violent protest of the Red Shirts.

Mr Thaksin stands accused of masterminding and funding the violent actions of the Red Shirts which led to grenade attacks and arson in the Thai capital and provinces in the North and Northeast during the past week.

Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said the ministry has translated the arrest warrant on terrorism charges into English awaiting final documents from the Attorney-General's Office before forwarding it through embassies in Bangkok and through Interpol via the Royal Thai Police.

This will put additional pressure on countries not to harbour Thaksin and could make his travel (France and Montenegro last week) more difficult.

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The FACT – Freedom Against Censorship Thailand appears to be censored in Thailand - with some irony - this is an anti censorship site !

Death in Bangkok - The Day the Thai Army Moved In

24 May 2010 - Der Spiegel


SPIEGEL correspondent Thilo Thielke was in Bangkok the day the Thai Army cleared the Red Shirt camps. It was the last day he would work with his friend and colleague, Italian photojournalist Fabio Polenghi, who died from a gunshot wound.

When the helicopters started circling over the center of Bangkok last Wednesday at 6 a.m., I knew that the army would soon launch its attack. This was the moment that everyone had been fearfully expecting for weeks. I had always doubted that the government would actually allow things to go this far. There were many women and children in the district occupied by the protesters. Did the soldiers really want to risk a bloodbath?

A state of emergency had prevailed for the past six weeks in the Thai capital, with the royalist government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and the army on one side, and a broad coalition of anti-government protesters -- many originating from the poor provinces of northern Thailand -- on the other side. Approximately 70 people had died in street fighting and over 1,700 had been wounded. The pro-government Bangkok Post had called it "anarchy" and the opposition spoke of "civil war."

At 8 a.m. I arrived in the Red Zone, a three-square-kilometer (one-square-mile) area surrounding the Ratchaprasong business district, which the army had sealed off on all sides. On that day, as on previous occasions, it was relatively easy to slip into the encampment, which I had visited a number of times over the past few months. Behind barricades made of bamboo and car tires, the protesting Red Shirts had pitched their tents and built a stage. But the revolutionary party atmosphere that had always reigned here before had evaporated that morning.

People were stoically awaiting the soldiers. They knew that the military would attack from the south, via Silom Road, and the braver ones among them had ventured to as far as a kilometer (0.6 miles) from the front line. They stood there, but they weren't fighting. Some of them had slingshots, but nobody was firing.

A wall of fire made of burning tires separated the protesters from the army. Thick smoke choked the street, and as the soldiers slowly pressed forward, shots whipped through the streets. Snipers fired from high-rises and the advancing troops shot through the smoke. And we, a group of journalists, ducked for cover, pressing ourselves against a wall to avoid getting hit. Pick-ups with paramedics sped by to take away the wounded.

A Devastated Urban Landscape

It was 9:30 a.m. when Italian photographer Fabio Polenghi joined us. Fabio had spent a lot of time in Bangkok over the last two years, and we had become friends during this time. Fabio, a good-natured dreamer, 48, from Milan had been a fashion photographer in London, Paris and Rio de Janeiro before coming to Bangkok to work as a photojournalist. We had traveled together to do a feature on Burma, and since then he had often worked for SPIEGEL. Over the past few weeks, the two of us had almost always been on the go together.

Just the previous evening, we had walked through the city together until darkness fell. We met on Din Daeng Street near the Victory Monument, which symbolizes Thailand's pride in expanding its territory 69 years ago. Now we stood in the midst of a devastated urban landscape, which revealed the country's slide into chaos. Dark smoke hung in the air; only the outlines of the obelisk were visible. The streets had been transformed into a war zone. A few days earlier I had crouched here behind a small wall for half an hour, seeking protection from the army's hail of bullets -- they had suddenly opened fire because some show-off had strutted around with a slingshot.

Not far from the Red Shirts' encampment stands Pathum Wanaram Temple, which was intended to serve as a safe zone for women and children during an attack. That evening we met Adun Chantawan, 42, an insurgent from the village of Pasana in the northeastern region of Isaan -- the rice-growing area where the rebellion against the government began.

Adun told us that he harvests sugarcane and rice there as a day laborer -- for €4 ($5) a day. He had been here in Bangkok since the beginning of the occupation two months ago. Abhisit's government must resign, he said, because it has not been elected by the people and is only supported by the military, which staged a coup to oust the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra -- the hero of the poor. He wants Thaksin to return, said Adun, but more than anything else he wants a Thailand where the elite no longer have all the power and others also share in the wealth. Adun never thought that the government would so brutally crack down on its own people. He told us that he was prepared to fight to the death for his ideals.

Dreams of Living in a More Democratic Society

Adun Chantawan was a typical Red Shirt supporter, but far from all of them came from the poor northern provinces. There were also bankers from Bangkok among them, who joined the insurgents in the evenings after work, and young rowdies, too. For most of them, it was not primarily about Thaksin. They were mostly concerned with the social injustice in the country. Many of them dreamt of living in a more democratic society. I could never understand the government's claims that the Red Shirts had been bought by Thaksin. Nobody allows themselves to be shot for a handful of baht.

When we looked for Adun the next day, he was nowhere to be found. Chaos was everywhere. Fabio and I saw the smoke, and the soldiers behind it, advancing towards us -- and we heard an increasing number of shots. Snipers from a side street were targeting us.

The onslaught had begun. I didn't dare go any farther, but Fabio ran forward, across the street, where shots were regularly fired -- a distance of roughly 50 meters (160 ft.) -- and sought shelter in a deserted Red Cross tent. This marked the beginning of the no man's land between us and the advancing troops. I saw his light blue helmet marked "press" bob into view. He waved for me to come join him, but it was too dangerous for me up there.

Since the beginning of the conflict, I have experienced the Thai army as an amateurish force. If they had cleared the street protests at the outset, the conflict would have never escalated to this extent. Once the soldiers attempted to clear the demonstrators, they left a trail of casualties. They fired live ammunition at Red Shirts who were barely armed.

I observed absurd, unequal battles during those days. Young people crouched behind sand bags and fired on the soldiers with homemade fireworks and slingshots. The soldiers returned fire with pump guns, sniper rifles and M-16 assault rifles.

At their camp, the Red Shirts had displayed photos on a wall of corpses with shots to the head -- they wanted to prove that snipers in high-rises had purposely liquidated demonstrators. These included Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol, a renegade officer and one of the most radical leaders of the anti-government protesters, who had been shot in the head six days earlier, and died shortly thereafter.

The government maintains that it has nothing to do with liquidations, and that the demonstrators are shooting each other dead. That isn't true. Over the past two years, during which I reported on the Red Shirts, I have almost never seen a firearm -- with the exception of the occasional revolver in the hand of a bodyguard.

On that morning, the first soldiers broke through the wall of smoke. From where I was standing, it was barely possible to make them out, but you could hear bullets whistling through the air. They were fired by the snipers, who were working their way forward, from building to building. Some of them appeared to be directly above us. Fabrio was nowhere to be seen.

They Had Shot an Italian

I headed towards Pathum Wanaram Temple, a few hundred meters to the west, in the Red Zone. The occupying protesters had lost, that much was clear -- they hadn't even fought back. It was 11:46 a.m., and they were playing the national anthem. Women and children were fleeing to the temple courtyard to escape the approaching troops. One of the protesters' leaders, Sean Boonpracong, was still sitting in the main tent of the Red Shirts. He said that he intended to carry on with the resistance, even after the army's attack. Instead of allowing himself to be arrested, he planned to go into hiding.


At 11:53 a.m. I tried to reach Fabio by phone. His voicemail clicked in, which wasn't unusual. You could only occasionally get a signal. Across from the temple, in front of the police hospital, a number of journalists were waiting for the paramedics to arrive with the wounded. A nurse noted the admissions on a board. It was 12:07 p.m., and she had already written down 14 names. A foreign reporter stood next to me. He said that they had shot an Italian. Right in the heart. Over one and a half hours ago. He said that he had taken his picture. He even knew his name: Fabio Polenghi.

Columns of smoke billowed up over the city that afternoon. The retreating Red Shirts set fire to everything: the huge Central World shopping center, the stock exchange and an Imax movie theater. People looted supermarkets and ATMs. When I finally returned home, piles of tires were burning on the street.

On the evening of the day that the government set out to restore order, Bangkok was an apocalyptic place. And Fabio, my friend, was dead.

Translated from the German by Paul Cohen

What next for Thailand

24 May 2010 - Der Spiegel

The Red Shirts began as a protest by the poor but it has become a mass movement of those who reject Thailand's elitist political culture. The clearing of the opposition camps last week has not resolved the problems in a deeply divided society.

What began as a protest of the poor has become a mass movement. It is more than just farmers and laborers from northern Thailand who take to the streets as "Red Shirts" -- business people, students and members of the middle class are also revolting against Thailand's political culture and against the influence of the military and the urban elite.


The Reds have no clear command structures. They are a magnet for the disenfranchised, many of whom yearn for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and feel excluded from the networks of power in Bangkok -- from a system in which the graduates of private schools and military academies take all the influential positions.

They are united by their anger with the current government under Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who was elected not by the people, but rather only by the parliament -- following dubious intrigues by the military. And they are united by a common opponent: the pro-establishment Yellow Shirts -- an alliance of civil servants and the urban upper classes who portray themselves as staunch monarchists.

Deep Divisions Run Through the Military

But Thailand is not just struggling with the possibility of new elections -- Thailand is struggling with itself. The population, the army, even the monarchy are divided. King Bhumibol, who has reigned since 1946, remains silent in public -- his wife is widely seen as a friend of the Yellows. The crown prince, on the other hand, is reputed to sympathize with the Red Shirts.

The deep divisions that run through the military were recently revealed when Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol was suspended because he sided with government opponents. His death by a sniper's bullet made him into a martyr for his followers. Even Thailand's army chief General Anupong Paochinda has acted indecisively -- first coming out in favor of new elections, as the demonstrators have demanded -- and then publicly siding with Prime Minister Abhisit during a TV appearance.

The country is also divided because Thailand's parties are dominated by influential men whose powerbases are built on cronyism in their home provinces. That was also the case under Thaksin, the exiled multi-millionaire from northern Thailand who is now warning of a nationwide guerrilla war.

The Press Has Failed to Inform the Public

It is the structural problems plaguing Thailand that make the future look grim: an army that regularly intervenes in politics (Thailand has had 18 military coups since 1932); a constitutional court that professes to be neutral, yet allows itself to be used for political purposes; a population that is raised to be loyal subjects -- loyal to the king, not to the constitution. The press also fails in its duty to inform the public. Insulting the monarchy can result in a prison sentence; this keeps critics quiet.

The crisis has not been resolved, it has merely shifted elsewhere. The Reds started dozens of fires late last week in Bangkok, rioted in the northern provinces and torched town halls there. Nine bodies were found in a temple in Bangkok on Thursday -- 16 died the previous day during the crackdown on the revolt.

If new elections were actually held this year, then it would simply mean that the Reds would be in the government and it would be the Yellows who would be out protesting on the streets.

Translated from the German by Paul Cohen

Beating up CNN

23 May 2010

It is so fashionable to beat up CNN in Thailand that even the government has joined in.

The problem with this is that the show referred to by the Thai foreign ministry was broadcast by CNN's domestic US network. It was not shown on CNN intenational, who  are the employers of Mr. Rivers.

Thailand: country needs a credible leader

23 May 2010 The Observer Editorial.

"After a week of violence that left Bangkok's commercial heart smouldering in ruins alongside Thailand's land of smiles reputation, there are few winners and even less certainty about where the country goes from here than when the whole mess began.

The coalition government looks stable for now but a lasting solution to the fissures in Thai society and loss of faith in the political process looks further away than ever.

The tough final military action to clear the anti-government protest site helped prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva salvage his credentials with his supporters. The redshirts themselves, or at least the thugs, vandals and arsonists among them who set Bangkok ablaze, also bolstered his position. Many in the capital who had been partially sympathetic to the red cause were shocked by the apocalyptic turn of the endgame.

Abhisit is talking reconciliation and rebuilding. But with 82 dead and nearly 1,800 injured and redshirts, still defiant and angry, returning to heroes' welcomes across the north and north-east, it is hard to see how the process begins – particularly when Abhisit, loathed by a majority of the electorate, is unable to show his face in many parts of the country.

Not that his nemesis Thaksin Shinawatra, widely assumed to have bankrolled the two-month protest, is any more of a unifying figure. The anarchy of the past days has driven many previously non-committed Thais firmly into the anti-Thaksin camp. Nationwide he still commands loyalty, but his return to politics would simply lead to new yellowshirt protests.

The seemingly obvious way to hit the reset button would be to call new elections and Abhisit has hinted at that, saying he will return to the five-point road map that was to have delivered a fresh poll by 14 November. But no sooner had he made the promise than his finance minister Korn Chatikavanij raised doubts about the date, saying he feared violence in any campaign. Coalition partner Banharn Silpa-archa has raised similar concerns.

In any case, it is far from clear that a new vote would change very much – or even if the redshirts believe in that any more. One of their chief complaints is that they keep electing governments which are either thrown out by coups or dubious legal processes.

So while a fresh election may lance the boil in Thailand for a time, there are no guarantees that such a decision in itself is a longterm answer to the country's deep problems. And as the smoke clears over the rubble in Bangkok, it is also not possible to identify any Thai political leader able to provide the necessary circuit-breaker to bring an end to the crippling cycle that has paralysed the country for so long."
 

The red threat ?

23 May 2010

The Times argues today that there is the likelihood of a violent underground movement that could wreck Thailand’s tourism industry. You will not hear this from the CRES, the government of from the Thai press who are busy trying to convince everyone that Bangkok and the country are returning to normal.

But what is normal. These riots, airport closures, occupation of government buildings have been going on for over four years.

The Times says that an armed wing of the movement vowed to carry on the fight and melted back into communities of workers and farmers. The paper claims that the militants were acclaimed as heroes in the slums of Klong Toey, a crime-ridden district (not sure Sister Joan would agree with that) that saw some of the heaviest fighting but attracted the least media attention.

Continues the Times: "It was from Klong Toey that black-clad men on motorbikes sped out to set fire to the gleaming stock exchange building, which looks down on it from the other side of a road junction. Later there were numerous accounts from frightened residents of vengeful redshirts huddled in councils of war in drinking dens and tenements.....The government seized control of television news, suppressed photographs of dead civilians and frantically blocked websites, leading a commentator in Thai Rath, the nation’s most popular newspaper, to say that “few truthful accounts were published or broadcast”.

This may be a bit strong but do not discount it: "There is mounting evidence that the 52 dead and 407 wounded victims of the latest spasm have created a groundswell of hatred, leaving Thailand’s reputation as a kingdom of Buddhist harmony in ruins....A movement that was born in raucous mass opposition to the royalist establishment may have spawned a radical insurgency in the space of just a week."

The government propaganda through the CRES and media will drive the redshirts underground. The government seems keener on retribution that reconciliation. And that is dangerous for Thailand.

The Times says that the Birtish embassy has collated details of some of the fighting that has taken place outside of Bangkok and been largely un-reported. It says that "there have been six bomb or grenade incidents in Chiang Mai, where buses were set ablaze on its leafy tourist streets and crowds gathered to protest at the railway station. On April 26, rival Thai mobs fought in the coastal city of Pattaya. On the resort island of Phuket, sappers defused a grenade left at a local television station, ASTV, on May 12. Rioting, arson or shootings have been reported in Chiang Rai, Khon Kaen and Udon Thani. Airports, roads and railways have all been blocked at times."

Thaksin himself was predicted guerrilla warfare. He may get his wish.

Mangalore crash is a Dubai tragedy

23 May 2010

An Air India Express passenger plane crashed in flames yesterday morning after overshooting the runway in the southern city of Mangalore on Saturday, killing 160 people on board.

Statement of the blindingly obvious goes to: “This incident should not have happened,” said Kapil Kaul, who heads the Indian and Middle East arm of the Center for Asian Pacific Aviation, a consulting firm.

There were only a handful of survivors after the Boeing 737-800 appeared to overshoot the runway. All the passengers were Indian nationals mostly returning to the families after working in Dubai.

Air India Express is the budget arm of the state-run carrier Air India.  It was India’s first major crash in more than a decade, which has seen a boom in private carriers - although the rapid growth on air travel has not been supported by sufficient growth in infrastructure.

The black box has been recovered from the wreckage.

But this disaster hits the Indian community in the UAE hard.

Saudi Arabia-based businessman Sameer Sheikh lost 16 relatives, including his wife and two children. All 16 were travelling to Mangalore to attend the last rites of Sheikh’s grandmother who had died Friday. Sheikh was in Mumbai and waiting to catch a flight to Mangalore at the time of the incident.

A Gulf News staff member, her husband and their daughter were also among those killed in the disaster. They were to attend a wedding. Manirekha Poonja, who worked in the Dubai-based daily’s finance department, was flying with her husband and their 17-year-old daughter for her cousin’s marriage, the paper reported.

The passengers were mainly domestic, construction and services industry employees from Dubai, whose families in India rely on remittances from their work. This may have been their one trip home in two years. They live apart from their families to provide for the families. It is a tough life. And such a sad ending.

People have been quick to say that Mangalore is a difficult airport. But he new 06/24 runway opened in 2006 and is more than sufficient for a 737. The weather was OK. The IlS (ILS Cat 1) was in use. The crew will have been tired at the end of an overnight round trip. 
 

Thailand update - 22 May 2010

Excellent collection of pictures

 Four Seasons Bangkok re-opens Wed, May 26

BTS will resume its service tomorrow (SUN) from 8am-10pm. Only at Rajdamri Station will temporarily close.

And the PR spin from the government continues with a briefing to foreign diplomats which makes the red shirt protestors sound like a heavily armed army and the army sound like angels. The truth of course is at neither extreme but this is playing out well to angry Bangkok residents happy to have their city back and who never want to see another red shirt.

Emirates slide down world airline ratings

22 May 2010

Asiana Airlines has been named winner of the Skytrax Airline of the Year 2010 title, ahead of Singapore Airlines (2nd) and Qatar Airways in 3rd place, at the 2010 World Airline Awards, that took place in Hamburg on 20th May.

This is regarded as the definition airline awards ceremony of the year and with more than 17.9 million air travellers from over 100 different nationalities taking part in a 10 month survey between July 2009 and April 2010.

Asiana Airlines President and CEO, Mr Young-Doo Yoon, said : "We would like to express our most heartfelt appreciation to our customers who voted us for Skytrax 2010 Airline of the Year Award. Asiana Airlines is extremely honoured to be recognized as the world’s top airline by our customers and to be awarded our industry’s highly esteemed accolade from Skytrax. To be the winner of the 2010 Airline of the Year Award is even more special and holds greater meaning, as it is 'The Passenger's Choice'."

But where was Emirates - well it was 5th last year. And has slipped to 8th this year.

Here is your 2010 top 10 places in the Airline of the Year Awards :

1. Asiana Airlines
2. Singapore Airlines
3. Qatar Airways
4. Cathay Pacific
5. Air New Zealand
6. Etihad Airways
7. Qantas Airways
8. Emirates
9. Thai Airways
10. Malaysia Airlines

Emirates is now behind local rivals Etihad. Why the big slip for Emirates? Growing to quickly is a problem; Etihad will have the same issue in years to come. The main problem is inconsistency of product. A seat in an class on an ageing A330 is very different for the corresponding seat on a new A380 or long range 777. Significant staff turnover is also leading to inconsistent service.

And cost cutting is obvious. From removing foot-rests (I think the biggest mistake made) to reduceing food quality and quantity.

Great IFE on the newer planes keeps passengers happy; but as the leading airlines show a more consistent product is needed.

You can read comments from passengers at the  Skytrax site on their Emirates experience. Most recent reviews are poor. A couple of angry examples:

"the food was terrible - the purser even admitted that their product had declined significantly over the past couple of years. Return trip overnight, again dreadful food and constant chatter from the crew meant very little sleep. Again a senior crew member told me that Emirates pushed their crew so hard and have imposed such punitive conditions around scheduling to the extent that up to 50 people a day are leaving the company, hardly surprising that the service levels have declined if this is the case. Inconsistent product with some of the worst food I have seen on board, Emirates should be ashamed of itself."
 

"The worst scheduled airline I have ever had the misfortune to fly with. Seats were extremely uncomfortable, with very little padding. Felt as if we were sitting on sharp bare metal after a few hours. We also suffered at the hands of a very rude air steward, and when we complained to the senior steward at his behaviour, we were told to get over it."

"Total disinterest in the customer. Only Lunch served and no offer of drinks or snacks following this - the crew only happy to sit and chat among themselves. Toilet floor flooded with urine which was mopped up by a male crew member using the table covers from dinner. If that was not bad enough, no hand washing followed. I was totally disgusted and the senior purser seemed to find it amusing and said they don't have much cleaning stuff on board."

Twitter's role in Bangkok conflict unprecedented

22 May 2010 - The Globe and Mail - Mark MacKinnon

"A few weeks ago, when it was safe and sane to go for dinner in the middle of Bangkok, some colleagues and I were in the middle of dinner at a Japanese restaurant when a loud boom was heard in the distance.

All of three of us reached immediately for our BlackBerries. A year ago, we might have e-mailed our editors to see what the news wires were reporting, or checked a television set for an update. But in Thailand's fast-moving and violent political crisis, there was no time to wait for those “old media” to tell us what was going on.

What we needed to know was: What were people tweeting?

The information came fast and dubious. Two explosions had been heard near the top of Silom Road financial street, where supporters of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had been gathering at the southern end of the sprawling Red Shirt anti-government protest camp that consumed much of the centre of Bangkok.

Someone tweeted that the sounds were made by bomb blasts, which would have been a serious escalation in the violence. Others suggested they might just be fireworks, which Red Shirts regularly used to target helicopters and light up roofs of buildings where snipers might be hiding. Eventually, the number of tweets about people injured on Silom Road became a body of evidence too large to ignore. We abandoned our sushi and headed to the scene.

Never before has a social media website played the kind of role in a conflict that Twitter has played in Thailand's nine-week-old anti-government uprising, keeping people informed even as it amplified the hate on both sides of the country’s divide. Some say Twitter – or rather its users – may have even saved lives as fighting consumed the streets of Bangkok.

More clearly, it was used by propagandists on both sides to get their message out, and by ordinary Thais to express their frustrations at the situation and to warn each other about which areas of Bangkok to avoid as the city descended into urban warfare. With many websites censored and Thailand's traditional media deeply divided into pro- and anti-government camps, it arguably became the only forum where you could get a clear picture of what was really going on.

“Twitter is the only place where we can say things freely,” said Poomjit Sirawongprasert, an Internet freedom activist who sometimes updates her Twitter feed a dozen times an hour and became one of the go-to sources for information about what was happening in whatever neighbourhood of Bangkok she happened to be in. “The propaganda is not good, but because of the speed, people can check and cross-check. If you put something out there that’s untrue, within 30 minutes the truth will come out because people will show evidence, photos and videos.”

While Twitter was used by the opposition in Iran to organize rallies following last year’s hotly disputed election, it was, for the most part, a one-sided affair with millions of tweets supporting opposition leader Mir Hossein Moussavi’s claim to have won the vote, and few backing the legitimacy of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. Social media was clearly not a field that the mullahs of Tehran understood or felt comfortable playing on.

In Thailand, Red Shirts hoping to bring down the government fought a tweet-for-tweet information war with backers of Mr. Abhisit’s government. Twitter also hosted front-line reports from veteran war correspondents, first-time freelancers and ordinary citizens caught in the crossfire. Some were enthralling; others were invention.

On at least two occasions – one of them when I was trapped inside the supposed sanctuary of the Wat Pathum temple along with more than 3,000 civilians as it came under fire – the social networking site may have played a role in saving lives.

With my colleague Andrew Buncombe unable to move after being shot Wednesday night inside the temple – and other injured people dying around us from lack of medical care – I first telephoned embassies, hospitals and the International Committee for the Red Cross. Then I put out an all-call on Twitter, hoping my “followers” in Bangkok would use their own contacts to help us.

“Please RT,” I wrote, using the shorthand for “retweet,” or spread the word. “People around me are dying because they can't get to hospital across the road because of fighting.” I attached a picture I had taken with my BlackBerry of three wounded men beside me, one of whom appeared near death after being shot in the back.

“More people will die inside Wat Patum unless we get ceasefire to get to hospital across the road,” I added a few minutes later, as my desperation grew.

Within minutes, my pleas had indeed been retweeted hundreds, maybe thousands of times, in English, Thai and other languages. They were posted on the websites of Britain’s The Guardian newspaper and other international media. People I knew only through Twitter started calling me to check on our situation. More helpfully, others started calling embassies, hospitals and the Thai government.

Eighty minutes later, I was carrying stretchers out to a row of waiting ambulances. “Twitter may just have done this,” was my next update.

A similar situation unfolded the next night in another part of Bangkok when a fire broke out in an apartment block in Din Daeng, a neighbourhood that was the scene of full-scale urban warfare for days this week. “People can't get out, b/c soldiers won't allow anyone to walk thru,” tweeted someone using the account of ThaiVisa, a popular online news forum.

As at the temple a day before, the news was passed around hundreds of times, and tweets from inside the burning building were read out on the local television and radio. Ordinary Thais far away from the scene of the blaze called the government and military and begged them to let fire trucks through. In the end, firefighters got through and the people trapped in the building were saved.

“We all become our own news wire service, breaking stories and events instantly. Did [tweets from inside Wat Pathum] prevent a massacre? Maybe they did. Who knows?” wrote Andrew Spooner, a London-based journalist who waded deep into the Thailand story from afar, tweeting about events from a decidedly pro-Red Shirt perspective.

That partisanship was the ugly side of Twitter’s role in the Thai crisis. While the social networking site did perhaps save lives in a few specific instances, Twitter – and the opportunity it gives to instantly broadcast whatever is on your mind, often from behind a cloak of near-anonymity – also gave Thais and foreigners living here the chance to broadcast vitriolic, often hateful, thoughts to the world, raising the temperature inside this already volatile country and arguably helping nudge the situation toward its violent end.

It was common to read comments on my Twitter feed that compared supporters of Mr. Abhisit to Nazis and followers of the Red Shirt movement to livestock. Each hateful comment seemed to provoke an even nastier response, and by the time the nine-week-old protest came to an end, each side was cheering acts of violence against the other.

It would be easy to dismiss the hate speech as irrelevant noise if not for the fact that both the Red Shirt leadership and Mr. Abhisit’s government were both paying rapt attention to what was being said online. The Red Shirts, under their official name, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, had Twitter and Facebook pages that not only distributed announcements from the movement’s leadership, but retweeted some of the venom.

Meanwhile, Mr. Abhisit, who has his own Twitter account and whose aides made clear that they were monitoring tweets about the crisis, was clearly aware of the calls nearly every minute on Twitter for him to order a military crackdown against the Red Shirt encampment in the centre of Bangkok.

Most worrisome for the future is that the hate being spewed online tweet-by-tweet is actually a fairly decent mirror of the sentiments in wider Thai society. While only one in five of Thailand’s 63 million people are online, and far fewer have Twitter accounts, the terrible things written on the site were the same sentiments being muttered on street corners and at dinner parties. Twitter didn’t create the hatred, it amplified it.

“To see what was going on, to see live pictures of things happening like that fire, where people got the word out and got fire trucks to come because of Twitter, that was incredibly important,” said Jodi Ettenberg, a Canadian lawyer living in Bangkok who tweeted about being trapped in the Din Daeng neighbourhood during some of the worst fighting.

“But the vitriol was just astounding. It was shocking to see the kinds of things being said in a public forum. To understand it, you needed to understand the feelings and anger that exist in Thai society.”

Ironically, Thailand’s obsession with Twitter was kick-started by the same man many blame for instigating the country’s ongoing political crisis: fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr. Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 military coup and later convicted in absentia of corruption charges, remains widely popular, but has struggled to communicate with his followers due to government influence over the Thai media.

Last summer, he opened up an account, @thaksinlive, and began using it to attack Mr. Abhisit and his government. Those interested in hearing what he had to say – as well as those who wanted to shout back at him – followed him to the social networking site, quickly creating one of Asia’s largest and most politically charged Twitter communities.

“People were not really that interested in Twitter until Thaksin started using it,” said Ms. Poomjit, the Internet freedom activist. “He made it a trend.”

Mr. Thaksin has only tweeted once since the military crackdown began on Wednesday. “I would like to express my condolences to those who are killed and wounded,” he wrote while the fighting was still raging.

Since then, his normally active account has gone silent. But the shouting match he started is only getting louder.

Dubai Panorama

21 May 2010

Thailand update 21 May 2010

This is how hard it is to find out the truth in BKK at the moment - these messages were sent minutes apart - Erawan Centre: 10 bodies found in fire-gutted CentralWorld; identification pending autopsy by forensic experts - Deputy Bkk police chief: No 9 bodies inside CTW as alleged.

Meanwhile the red shirt leaders - although arrested - seem more than comfortable at their place of detention in Hua Hin - how bizarre are these pictures:

More pictures: After the battle and A Dark 19 May

Round - up of news articles

Red Shirt protest crushed, but spirit strong as ever - Globe and Mail Canada

Thailand's only hope lies in political compromise - The Guardian - UK

What will rise from the ashes of Bangkok

Growing Pains - Time

A Horrific Day for Bangkok - Bangkok Post editorial

Sacrifices in Bangkok - WSJ

Bangkok Grows Calm, but Social Divisions Remain - New York Times

Prospect of Thai elections uncertain - AP

Future is dark unless both sides are prepared for reconciliation - The Independent - UK

The battle of Bangkok - The Economist

What next for Thailand's red shirts - The Times

YouTube, Twitter revolutionize coverage of Thai Crisis - Saudi Press Agency (rather surprising source!)

The online social ugliness of Thailand's conflict - CNET

The role of twitter in the Bangkok protests
 

And not one link to CNN - who remain profoundly disliked in Thailand. There is a very unpleasant hashtag of comments.

Thai Rath columnist Mud Lek (Iron Fist) - Bangkok Post

"Compared with their foreign counterparts, the Thai media’s coverage of the red shirts’ protest has been very disappointing.

Thai reporters worked very hard and put their lives at risk covering the conflict, but few truthful accounts were published or broadcast by their newspapers or radio and TV stations.

News about protesters killed by soldiers was suppressed by government-controlled radio and TV stations, which gave full coverage to announcements made by Prime Minister Abhisit and the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES).

The lack of media outrage against the army’s suppression of protesters is deplorable.

To get the truth, the Thai public must rely on foreign newspapers and TV broadcasters, such the BBC, CNN and Al-Jazeera.

Some Thai media outlets discarded their independence and professionalism after being granted licences or budgets to do state-funded programmes. This is unethical, to say the least.

The acts of violence and intimidation by armed soldiers must be made known to the public. Local media that fail to do so cannot claim to be the people’s media."

A polity imploding

21 May 2010 - The Economist (Should be compulsory reading in Thailand !)

"The black smoke that had hung over Bangkok’s jagged skyline for six days grew thicker and more noxious. On May 19th combat troops marched into the protest camp where a few thousand anti-government red-shirt stragglers remained, defiant to the end. Their main leaders went quietly, to howls of disapproval from diehard demonstrators, but 13 people died and more than 80 were injured as the camp was cleared. Angry protesters torched their tyre-and-bamboo barricades, then set fire to the Bangkok stock exchange and Central World, one of South-East Asia’s biggest department stores.

The dawn assault on the fortified camp was methodical, and met only scattered resistance from gunmen holed up inside. It was not, mercifully, the Tiananmen Square rerun that some had predicted. Most protesters took shelter in a temple, and then were herded away to evacuation points. Security forces had overwhelming force on their side. On the outskirts of the camp, though, riots flared along a main road that had seen the worst of the recent fighting. Arson attacks spread to new areas, and gun battles erupted in the blackened underpass beneath an expressway, not far from a port slum that has begun staging its own red-shirt rally. Protesters in the north and north-east, where red-shirt sympathies run deepest, were quick to resort to arson attacks in retaliation.

All this has its roots in a military coup in 2006, when the then prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecoms tycoon, was removed from power. He fled into exile, but the red shirts continue to support him, and have been demanding new elections. They present themselves as rural and poor, as opposed to the urban elites who are closer to the revered King Bhumibol and his family. The protests have been their way of venting their political frustration. They have also revealed the deep social and economic divisions in Thai society.

The prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has failed to make any headway with the red shirts. On April 10th he hastily sent in troops to clear another protest site, with the loss of 25 lives. But he does deserve credit for offering a compromise since then. On May 3rd he proposed the holding of elections in November, a year before his term ends, as part of a reconciliation package. That the leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), the red shirts’ formal title, failed to grasp this olive branch is tragic. They, as much as trigger-happy soldiers, must bear some responsibility for the lives lost.

Yet even on May 18th an 11th-hour ceasefire had appeared close. But mistrust on both sides proved impossible to bridge, and the talks failed. In truth, this approach may have been doomed since widespread fighting erupted on May 13th after a presumed army sniper picked off General Khattiya Sawasdipol, a rogue officer who ran the red shirts’ security. He died on May 17th. Suspended from duty but not yet stripped of his rank, he was honoured with a funeral sponsored by the king at a Buddhist temple, another reminder of how much rank means in Thailand.

By then, the die had been cast. Military units trying to block off the sprawling protest site were attacked by stone-throwing yobs who brought along petrol bombs and firecrackers. Shadowy black-clad militia-members also joined in, though fleetingly. Soldiers shot back without much restraint, even at paramedics trying to bring out the wounded. Road junctions were declared “live-fire zones”. The mayhem spread to other parts of the city. The military cordon appeared to be breaking as red shirts defied orders to stay away. Something had to give. In the end it was overwhelming military force, not a political deal among the warring factions, that won the day.

As the bullets flew and the bodies fell, crocodile tears came from afar, as Mr Thaksin tweeted his sorrow to his followers. From his luxurious exile he denied, once again, that he was giving orders to the red-shirt leaders and urged everyone to embrace peace. There is little doubt, however, that Mr Thaksin holds sway over the splintered, squabbling red-shirt leadership. The two-month protest would not have been possible without his deep pockets, vengeful will and political network, even though the red-shirt cause has become much larger than him. And his stubbornness seems to have undone the peace talks, despite his protestations.

Society fractured

In April 2009, when troops were also called in to restore order in Bangkok, red-shirt leaders got carried away by their own rhetoric and found themselves quickly out on a limb. Veera Musikapong, a moderate Thaksin follower, recommended surrender instead. Tellingly, he left the red-shirt camp last week when it became clear that hardliners led by Mr Thaksin would not accept Mr Abhisit’s peace plan. Mr Veera’s behind-the-scenes efforts to bring the leadership back into the fold came to nothing.

As Thailand’s crisis continues to unfold, many will wonder how it came to this. If politics is the art of the compromise, Thais had appeared to be experts. Various political factions, both elected and unelected, cobbled together governments that oversaw steady economic growth even as they squabbled and scrapped for the spoils. That pragmatic formula no longer works. Political crises have polarised opinions within families, workplaces and communities, and hollowed out the centre.

That is why this crisis goes much deeper than previous rounds of political violence, including the bloodshed in May 1992 when a coup leader sent troops out to mow down pro-democracy protesters. Then, King Bhumibol Adulyadej was able to order a truce between the army chief and the protest leader, and appoint an interim administration to steer the country out of crisis. Bhumibol, who is 82 and confined to hospital, has stayed out of the current mess. Some red shirts, and many foreign observers, believe that the palace has already taken sides and is no longer an honest broker. The 2006 coup and royalist yellow-shirt protests in 2008 drove home that message. But even if Bhumibol did try to mediate this time, there is no simple fix. The prospect of the looming succession, with an unpopular crown prince in the wings, further heightens tensions.

Why compromise failed

The aftermath of the May 19th crackdown will probably see sporadic unrest, both around Bangkok’s slums and in the north and north-east. Many of the red shirts at the rally came from the north-east, which accounts for around one-third of parliamentary seats. Since 2001 the region has overwhelmingly voted for Mr Thaksin and his allies. The red shirts had sought to force a new election in the belief that voters would turf out Mr Abhisit, the darling of Bangkok’s privileged classes.

Had the red shirts accepted the prime minister’s offer of elections, the timetable would have been to their advantage. Now an election seems like a liability in a climate of violence and fear. It is hard to imagine government candidates setting foot in the red-shirt heartland without a phalanx of armed guards. Many in Bangkok would be irate to see the protest leaders run for office. Mr Abhisit has argued that an election, in itself, will not solve Thailand’s political problems. He has a (self-serving) point. A chaotic, disputed ballot, and the absence of neutral bodies to settle disputes, could drag Thailand further down the road towards civil war, which is increasingly talked about.

Waiting for the repercussions

Many are asking why peace talks failed, when the red shirts had little hope of resisting the troops. Insiders say that Mr Thaksin was a serious spoiler, as were General Khattiya and other radicals. In a dysfunctional and factionalised movement, internal talks bogged down. Some leaders balked at facing criminal charges without the guarantee of bail. But the leadership was also held hostage, in part, by its own rhetoric and the emotions stirred among its followers. Many were enraged by the April 10th slaughter and unimpressed by the six-month timeline for elections. “The mob would not allow them to give in so easily,” says a senior security official.

Some red shirts complain that the prime minister’s plan was too vague and lacked teeth. They did not trust Mr Abhisit to keep his promises, and asked what would happen if he resigned or his party were dissolved for electoral irregularities (it faces a court case). But by far the greatest distrust, and the hardest to overcome, is that felt by a sizeable number of Thais, inside and outside the red shirts, towards the country’s royalist elite and its political, military and business allies. This grouping blithely tossed out Mr Thaksin when he got too big for his boots. That he was thuggish and greedy was a handy excuse. But the 2006 coup failed to bury him politically and only unleashed a wider backlash against an elite that still believes in a divine hierarchy of which they are the agents. Mr Abhisit would object to such a description, but his class betrays little sympathy or interest in the aspirations of rural and working-class voters. Their attitude, says Supavud Saicheua, an economist at Phatra Securities, is: “We are brilliant people. We know what you want.”

Such intransigence has bred dark, violent dreams. Most red shirts swear blind that they stick to peaceful methods, even if they have to resort to disruptive sit-ins. Indeed, the protests were surprisingly jolly and gentle at the start, to the relief of Bangkokians who remembered the April 2009 unrest. Their message of social and economic injustice, and of the double standards in Thai justice, got a sympathetic hearing. It seemed that the tide had shifted towards the red shirts and away from their yellow-shirted rivals in the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

But it has long been apparent that some red followers do not believe in gradual change in Thailand’s political order. Simply put, they think it is not possible to play at democracy in the current circumstances. To this group of rogue military types, armchair revolutionaries and opportunists, the endgame is not elections, but regime change. The current violence is only the start of a long revolutionary road. This is the unfinished business of 1932, when the absolute monarchy ended and Thailand’s power balance began to shift towards other forces. It is still in flux, and is likely to remain so as long as the post-Bhumibol future is so uncertain.

Conservatives will object vehemently to this characterisation of Thailand’s troubled politics. They will argue that Mr Thaksin has hoodwinked the world into believing that his red-shirt rabble is poor and oppressed. Not so, they say. Thailand’s economic growth has trickled down to the masses, all under the benevolent gaze of Bhumibol. In recent weeks the foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, has railed at foreign diplomats who talked to the red shirts after the April 10th clashes, which the government says militant gunmen fomented. He snubbed a senior American diplomat who dared to sit down to breakfast with moderate opposition figures. He says foreign allies should be doing more to catch Mr Thaksin, a “terrorist”, as he calls him.

When the UDD called for the United Nations to step into the crisis, Mr Kasit retorted that Thailand was “not a failed state”. That is true. But if it does become ungovernable, the fault will not be Mr Thaksin’s alone. Equally culpable is the royalist PAD that Mr Kasit belongs to. He and many of his peers could not stand the idea of an elected government loyal to Mr Thaksin. So they helped organise a six-month protest in 2008 that culminated in the seizure of Bangkok’s two airports, all in the name of defending the monarchy. Two prime ministers were removed by the courts on dubious grounds. The stage was set for Mr Abhisit to take power, enraging those who voted in his opponents and laying out the template for mob rule which the red shirts have copied. No PAD leader has gone on trial for what he did. The red leaders may be less fortunate.

Sorting out this mess would require an end to the “crooked procedures” that began with the 2006 coup, says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. That means constitutional reforms to undo the undemocratic rules imposed by the army. It may also be helpful to lift bans on politicians from dissolved pro-Thaksin parties, some of whom are far more moderate than those in the UDD and not necessarily on Mr Thaksin’s side. All of this was under discussion a year ago, after Bangkok’s last conflagration. That Mr Abhisit failed to make these changes and frame his mission as peaceful reconciliation is lamentable. It will only be harder now.

One Comment following the Economist article is worth reading as well -

"Certainly, Thaksin wants his money back, and perhaps some revenge (he seems a vengeful sort to me), and he is using whatever means he can to achieve those ends, including the deep grievances of the majority of the Thai people. However, he can only do that because that sense of injustice, those grievances, are real: did they not obtain, Thaksin would have no influence.

Thaksin is merely a symptom of the real sickness in the Thai body politic, and to cast him as the ultimate cause is wrong; nor is Thaksin obviously much worse than a long tradition of Thai dictators - army coups have installed PMs who were dictators, and elected PMs have tended to pillage as they presided over a feast of corruption. Thaksin was different because he used the Thai majority to gain power legally rather than by force of arms, or the greed-driven and costly cooperation of the Bangkok political mobsters. That populist power base was not the Thai tradition, and it meant he owed something to the majority of Thai people, which debt he repaid with policies such as affordable universal health care, village development funds, and other policies designed to divert some of the wealth of the Thai nation to the Thai nation rather than keeping it all in Bangkok; this was most definitely contrary to well established Thai tradition, and did not go down well with teh Bangkok traditionalists, who abhor anything contrary to established Thai tradition. The only thing traditional about Thaksin was that he was self-serving, and made legal policy moves that coincidentally (amazing Thailand!) benefited his family immensely, and he acted the man of iron against social vice; always the easy target of scoundrels seeking to burnish their moral credibility, it is hardly surprising that his evil wars on drugs and draconian curtailments of nightlife and personal entertainment choices were the very things that remained popular even with his arch enemy the vicious Chamlong Sri Muang, leader of teh PADster Yellow mobs, who spearheaded the fight against the Thai people in favour of the ugly Thai traditional ways of Bangkok.

The roots of the deep divides in Thai society are to be found in its ugly and outworn traditions.

First is the traditional pu-yai system, whereby those lower in society look up to, and blindly respect and obey those above them, who in turn protect them, including from justice and the legal system. An increasing number of Thai people seem to be realising just how inherently rotten and corruption prone is this system, and that whilst offering those at the bottom a few scraps, it also precludes them from rising up to sit at the table and eat the meats as equals.

Second is the traditional reign of ignorance. Draconian laws and financial threats (Thaksin, a master at both, was not above using traditional weapons when it served him) are used to enforce strict censorship, and this ugly Thai tradition has now turned back on the authorities. Abhisit and his government cannot be trusted by the Thai people because they are known to use censorship, and the Thai people have now woken up to the fact that censorship, all censorship without exception, is intended to create ignorance, to prevent the spread of knowledge; when it is known that censorship is used to preclude the possibility of knowledge over swathes of topics of relevance to politics and the Thai people, this can only render the authorities inherently untrustworthy. My guess is that the Thai people now want free and open discussion on all topics that are relevant to the current political situation and social issues in Thailand.

The traditional Thai veil of ignorance will no longer work. Unless light is permitted to penetrate to the dark places of Thai history and politics, I do not see how the deep divides can be healed."

Where is turbulent Thailand headed

21 May 2010 - Reuters analysis (not very helpful as every scenarie is deemed plausible except for a coup!)

"Peace returned to Bangkok on Thursday after some of the worst rioting in modern Thai history erupted in the aftermath of military action to disperse a fortified protest encampment in central Bangkok.

Wednesday's rioting capped a nine-week standoff between authorities and protesters opposed to the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva who largely support ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatrawant and want immediate elections.

The crisis broadly pits the rural poor and urban working class against what they call an "establishment elite" of big business, military brass and the educated middle class.

Here are some scenarios on how the crisis may unfold.

* RESISTANCE DIES DOWN, ELECTION PLAN AGREED.

The curfew in Bangkok and affected provinces, with the military patrolling the streets, cools passions. With the "red shirt" leadership in custody, the movement is shattered. Under international pressure to heal Thailand's wounds, Abhisit puts his "roadmap of reconciliation" back on the table.

The red shirts and their allies, the Puea Thai party, agree to a November election. Thaksin endorses it, knowing that parties allied to him have won every election in the past decade.

This is quite plausible.

MARKET IMPACT: Stocks and the baht have mostly decoupled from the political chaos by now, after foreign investors sold off half the shares they bought this year. Stocks actually rose slightly on Wednesday, albeit on thin volume, even as the Stock Exchange was set afire. Peace would allow Thai stocks, now among the cheapest in Asia at 10.5 times 2010 earnings, to surge.

Bond yields would fall and credit default swap spreads would narrow. Yields have been closely correlated to violence during the crisis as investors flee to safety.

Spreads on Thailand's five-year CDS, used to insure against sovereign debt default, have risen steadily since the protests turned violent on April 10 -- significantly higher than the Asia ex-Japan index for that period.

"The market is clearly pricing the political risks. But on its own, if you look at the economic fundamentals of Thailand, they're perfectly fine," said Joseph Tan, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Singapore.

* GUERRILLA WARFARE INTENSIFIES IN COUNTRYSIDE

Red shirts shrug off their leader's plea to stop rioting and mobilize local insurrections, as on Wednesday when they set three town halls ablaze. They attack banks, department stores and other symbols of wealth and power.

Economic targets, such as airports and seaports, are also attacked. Blockades delay distribution and shipments. Some 3,000 tonnes of white sugar shipments were delayed on Tuesday because of anti-government protests near Bangkok's main port.

Foreign investors, particularly just-in-time manufacturers, should start thinking about locating inventories offshore if the violence continues, said Steve Vickers, president of risk consultancy FTI-International.

MARKET/ECONOMIC IMPACT

The impact on growth would be severe. The protests have already decimated the tourism industry and hit domestic consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP. Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said the unrest had already cut growth by half a percentage point and it would be two points if the problem continued all year. A source at the state planning agency put the impact of the turmoil of $3 billion, or about one percentage point of gross domestic product. "What we need to see is how long it will take to regain the confidence of foreign tourists and investors," said the official, who declined to be identified. Tourism accounts for 6 percent of GDP and employs 15 percent of the workforce.

This scenario is also quite plausible.

* ABHISIT IS DUMPED, CARETAKER GOVERNMENT INSTALLED

The coming days could determine whether Abhisit is viewed as the man who restored law and order to Bangkok and began healing wounds, or as the hapless intellectual who failed to do the job. Analysts say the military wants to keep his government in power until it completes an annual reshuffle of top posts, as it involves power, prestige and control of army-linked firms.

If the military-backed coalition thinks Abhisit needs to be abandoned, he will be dumped, but his roadmap to reconciliation might survive. This involves early elections and reforms to heal wounds. An acceptable figure would be named as a caretaker prime minister until fresh elections, not due until December 2011.

It is unclear if Abhsit's offer of elections by year-end is still on the table. Much of the debate ahead would be about election rules and who would be eligible, with many politicians accused of various crimes. That could prove problematic.

The longer polls are delayed, the less likely it is Thailand will get the reforms it needs to cure a widening income gap and economic disparities that underlie political divisions.

This is yet another plausible scenario.

MARKET/ECONOMIC IMPACT

Markets won't mind a short-term caretaker government as long as it keeps the peace. The economy would benefit if it stopped the economically debilitating protests, as in the first scenario.

ABHISIT DUMPED, NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT INSTALLED

Talks with civil society groups yield agreement to form a caretaker government comprised of figures from the current government, the opposition, and technocrats. This government would oversee elections to be held by the end of the year.

While possible, this seems unlikely. The military wants nothing to hinder the reshuffle and a government with Thaksin supporters would be inconvenient. A national unity government might ensure fair election rules, but would almost certainly bring a pro-Thaksin government to power.

MARKET/ECONOMIC IMPACT

It would take time to form such a government and could delay the current 1.43 trillion baht ($44.2 billion) stimulus plan with its knock-on impact on growth and consumption.

Foreign investors who have stuck it out might reconsider, given the political risks it could pose over policy. Even before the latest violence, the Board of Investment forecast foreign investment pledges this year could fall 15 percent.

Stocks might climb, and bond yields could fall in the short term on the perception the current wave of violence has been controlled. But the potential for violence to resurface before or after a new election would keep many investors sidelined.

GOVERNMENT CAN'T IMPOSE ORDER, ARMY LAUNCHES COUP

Unrest spreads in the countryside. Abhisit's government is unable to maintain law and order in the capital, as a police force largely sympathetic to red shirts and loyal to Thaksin, a former policeman, fails to control the protests.

Red shirts regroup in smaller numbers, but at more locations in the capital, hold rallies and block roads. Unrest spreads in the countryside. The public virtually pleads for the military to act. And so it does. For the 78th time since a constitutional monarchy was created in 1932, a coup (or an attempt) is launched in Thailand. Martial law is declared. The army sweeps through Bangkok and an uneasy order is restored. The military chiefs install a compliant government.

This is unlikely. The military would much prefer to wield influence than to try to govern itself. It wants to keep this government in power until it completes the September reshuffle.

MARKET IMPACT: A coup would cause stocks to plunge, and the baht to slide. Concerns about fiscal mismanagement, poor governance, and a public backlash -- even civil war -- would curtail long-term investment. Thailand's credit ratings would be downgraded. Bond yields would soar, and the CDS would probably set an all-time record for a basis-point jump. There could even be a contagion effect in Southeast Asian emerging markets."

Media under fire in Bangkok

21 May 2010

Media Under Fire: Time Line

April 10
• Hiro Muramoto, a Japanese photo-journalist for Reuters, died after being shot in the chest during a nighttime clash in Bangkok.

May 13
• Thomas Fuller, a journalist for the New York Times, was interviewing ex-army officer Khattiya Sawatdiphol, known as Seh Daeng, when the latter was killed by a shot to the head by a sniper.

May 14
• Nelson Rand, a Canadian journalist for France 24 television network, was hospitalized after being shot in his arm, leg and abdomen.
• A Thai journalist working for Voice TV News website and a photographer for Matichon newspaper were both shot in the leg.
• Two unknown foreign journalists were shot in the chest, but received minor injuries due to their bulletproof jackets.

May 19
• An Italian photo-journalist, Fabio Polenghi, was shot dead in a clash between Thai troops and Redshirts in Bangkok.
• Dutch journalist Michel Maas, working for Dutch television and newspapers, as well as Radio Netherlands Worldwide, was hospitalized after being shot in his shoulder.
• Chandler Vandergrift, a Canadian journalist, has undergone surgery and is listed in serious condition after being shot by shrapnel in the head and torso.
• British journalist Andrew Buncombe from The Independent is reportedly shot and injured.
• An unknown foreign journalist, who reportedly looks Middle Eastern, was shot in the chest and reportedly died.
• An unnamed American documentary film maker was hospitalized after being shot in his leg.
• The car park of Bangkok-based Channel 3 TV station was set alight by Redshirt protesters, destroying 17 cars.
 

Thailand update - 20th May 2010- 2

My favorite link - 2bangkokcom - has a page dedicated to the nonsense coming from Thaksin's so called lawyer. Mr Amsterdam is still having his nonsense published in papers such as the Australian, which should know better !

There are some vivid accounts of yesterday's military action in Bangkok contained in the foreign press. These are articles (from English language media - there must be similar in other languages) that you will not see in the Thai media. They offer a vivid commentary on the confusion and fear of the day:

Eyewitness: Under fire in Thailand Andrew Buncombe reports from the streets of Bangkok which have become a lethal battle zone

In a Bangkok Buddhist temple, the groans of the wounded shot seeking sanctuary

On twitter from Andrew Bunscome this morning : "Pleasant gvt official visited me in hosp Asked how I felt. I told him I was pretty pissed off to be shot in a temple full of civilians."

Resistance, then surrender, in a doomed last stand

Showdown at Ratchaprasong

Thailand: Coup, Betrayal, Disarray

Terror in Thailand

Voices from the Aftermath

In updates:

CNN - embarrassing coverage. Its the jokes and the "aren't we smart" comments that are really offensive. Video has been deleted. It was from CNN USA. The video is already on YouTube - but i think you will have to find it yourself. Even posting a link to it is unwise.

Fires-some newly set-still burning around BKK more trouble reported from Red heartland in north&northeast of country.

Al-Jazeera reporting some significant rioting in Chiang Mai and the North East.

Central World, Center One and Big C Rajdamri branch and Siam Theatre will be demolished, said BMA

The chief public works officer of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration said Thursday CentralWorld and two other shopping malls as well as Siam Theatre would have to be demolished.

He said Central World, Center One and Big C Rajdamri branch as well as Siam Theatre had been burn for so many hours that they structures were damaged so they would have to be demolished.

CNN headline this afternoon: Stolen paintings. So Bangkok must be very quiet.

Amsterdam's nonsense

20 May 2010

I guess it was clear that I have always had some symptahy for the red cause. At least the peaceful red cause. I do not like coups to rmeove elected governments. And i do think that the Thai elite has been lining its pockets for far too long. The image of the Thai elites handing out occasional alms to crouching peasnats is too common in Thialand.

But teh reds lost me even before the shicking arson attacks yesterday.

They lost me when Thaksin hired Robert Amsterdam as his mouthpiece.

Suddenly this publicity seeking lawyer has become an expert on Thai issues after being in Thakins; pay for all of a week.

AMLawDaily (American Lawyer) has more background on this uniquely annoying individual:

"Robert Amsterdam is no stranger to dangerous assignments, so the client he's recently gone to work for puts Amsterdam back in familiar territory.

The Bronx-born international defense lawyer, best known for representing jailed Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was retained earlier this month by former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra via supporters of the telecom billionaire. The assignment put Amsterdam in the middle of Bangkok for three days just as Thai troops were stepping up their crackdown on Thaksin's Red Shirt supporters, creating some anxious moments for him.

"I just got out of Bangkok where I was in the Red Shirt compound," Amsterdam says by phone from Hong Kong. "I did not know if I would get out. The whole fucking thing is just a terrible tragedy."

Amsterdam, a founder of London-based Amsterdam & Peroff, says that Thaksin is being unfairly vilified.

"These people are risking their lives and the government is trying to portray Thaksin as some kind of terrorist that they should go arrest, because he's the most popular man in Thailand," he says. "Thaksin was popularly elected on a number of occasions, unlike some of the individuals currently in power."

Thaksin's foes accuse him of being the most corrupt politician in Thailand, and efforts to go after his assets originally led him to retain Baker Botts to fight the seizures. The firm is no longer representing Thaksin, who remains in exile. (Michael Goldberg, chair of the firm's international arbitration and dispute resolution practice, handled the assignment for the Baker Botts but didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.)

Amsterdam says he flew to Hong Kong early Wednesday (EST) with several of Thaksin's Thai lawyers because "we could no longer function in Bangkok."

"The [Thai] government is going to use these protests as a pretext to try to go after my client, because they are just deathly afraid of him," Amsterdam says. "Now we are going to investigate and document the absolutely extra-legal behavior of the Thai government and military."

Amsterdam says the Obama administration has been "incredibly quiet" about what is unfolding in Thailand.  "The writing is on the wall that this [Thai] government is not long for this earth," Amsterdam adds. "Abhisit has to resign and they have to call for elections."

I have already had my rant about Amsterdam (see below). He simply gets the facts wrong. And the international media is giving his nonsense far too much credibility.

Bus to work for EK crew

20 May 2010

The Dubai Public Transport Agency of the Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has signed a strategic agreement with Emirates Group to commute the employees of the Group from and to their homes and workplaces. The contract runs for 3 years, with an option to renew it for further two years.

In simpler words - the crew are currently transported in Avis minibuses. From June they will be transported in RTA buses. Maybe that is the excuse that the RTA needs to now build a road to Millennium Tower - which has been at the end of a bumpy dirt track for 3 and 1/2 years.

Emirates has cancelled the Avis contract - why pay a foreign company - and instead entered a new contract with another government owned transport company.

The contract is worth about AED100 million over the three years.

Comprising Emirates Airline and DNATA among other companies, Emirates Group needs to commute more than 15,000 employees everyday between their residences and workplaces at Dubai International Airport, the Group’s Head Office and other sites in Dubai.

The new contract starts  early next month (June) and there will be a fleet of 68 buses for the Emirates service on 109 routes across the city. The dedicated buses will be distinguished with both the RTA and the Emirates airline logos on them. They are presumable busy recruiting drivers from Avis!

Bangkok's torched buildings

20 May 2010 - with thanks to RSW and updated by the Nation

1. Office of the Narcotics Control Board (ONCB)
2. A commercial building in Bon Kai community
3. Kasikorn Bank, soi Ngam Doo Plee branch
4. Siam Paragon Shopping Complex
5. CentralWorld Shopping Complex
6. Maleenont Tower
7. Government Savings Bank, Sam Liam Din Daeng branch
8. Metropolitan Electricity Authority, Klong Toei branch
9. Metropolitan Waterworks Authority, Klong Toei branch
10. Stock Exchange of Thailand
11. Sogo Department Store in Rajaprasong area
12. Siam and Scala Cinemas in Siam Square
13. Post Publishing PCL
14. Bangkok Bank, Asok branch
15. Bangkok Bank, Victory Monument branch
16. Bangkok Bank, Chan Road branch
17. Center One Shopping Mall
18. Siam Square
19. Siam City Bank, Siam Square branch
20. Bangkok Bank, Siam Square branch
21. shops in Siam Square soi 5 and 6
22. Mahatun Plaza Building on Ploen Chit Road (false alarm - Mahatun apparently OK)
23. Bangkok Bank, Rama IV branch
24. 7-Eleven convenient store, Sam Liam Din Daeng branch
25. Krungthai Bank next to Mater Dei School
26. Krungthai Bank, Asok branch
27. Bangkok Bank, Bangjak branch
28. Tesco Lotus Express convenient store, Rama IV branch
29. Bangkok Bank, Sathupradit branch
30. Bangkok Bank, Saphanluang branch
31. Siam City Bank, Sam Liam Din Daeng branch
32. Siam City Bank, Sunthornkosa branch in Klong Toei district
33. 7-Eleven convenient store near Victory Monument
34. Bangkok Bank, Hua Lam Phong branch
35. Siam Commercial Bank, Prachachuen branch
36. Big C Superstore, Rajdamri branch

Three Provincial Halls upcountry were hit by fires in Khon Kaen, Ubon Ratchathani and Udon Thani
 

Where next for Thailand?

20 May 2010

There is an entertaining piece of nonsense in today's Nation likening Thai PM Abhisit to Abraham Lincoln; except that one made his own decisions and the other has them made for him. There is also the small matter of the scale of their respective crises.

Thailand's fatal flaw is that for over four years mob rule has replaced the electoral process, which people have completely lost faith in.

It was mob rule that paved the way for the parliamentary deal that got Abhisit into power in the first place. Abhisit's promise on taking power was reconciliation, but all we have seen is more chaos.

Restoring public confidence in their right to elect their leaders is really what the Thai authorities should be concentrating on right now. Elections will remain pointless until the army and judiciary stop meddling with the result.

For the moment Thailand looks like a Burma or China. There are military on the streets. The government spokesman is on TV sat next to the man from the army. The government is the army and vice versa. TV networks are either off air or are broadcasting government sanctioned TV only. So the people are only told what the government wants them to hear when it wants them to hear it. And that is how rumours get created and spread. Because there is no other objective information.

The good news is that the death toll was not significantly higher - though I am sure that it is higher than has been reported so far. At least at the outset it was well-organized and the red shirt leaders surrendered once it became inevitable.

Losses were significantly less than what they could have been.

The CRES declared victory too early - and left the city unprotected for the rash of arson attacks that then followed. That was a significant gap in the army's planning.

But the government can claim that it has reclaimed Bangkok.

The local media says that Abhisit received confirmation from Newin and Chaovarat of Bhum Jai Thai that they were certain they could control the situation of the red shirts upcountry.

Abhisit then gave the order for the troops to move in. But the government and military now need to control the situation. The likelihood is of further limited violence, mostly fires and that the situation will be resolved within the next week. Bangkok's shopping centres will be quickly rebuilt. And the wreckage of the Siam theatre and the adjoing sois may have simply helped the wrecking teams in an area that was likely to be redeveloped anyway.

But what will remain is the anger. The government may seek to appease the nation by ordering elections by the end of the year. By when the Democrats may have already been disbanded by the constitutional court anyway.

As for Abhisit - I actually feel sorry for him. We really do have no idea what he really thinks. He may indeed be liberal leaning at heart; but he is propped up by the ultra-rights in Thailand. If he is not pushed maybe it is time that he said he has had enough.

The government is more secure now the protestors have been cleared and militants largely arrested. At least in Bangkok any opponent of the government is deemed as a Red/Thaksin/Terrorist sympathizer. The media will help with strong support of the current regime.

What may change things is the reaction of people in the North East and Chiang Mai as their people come back from Bangkok.

Military crackdown only widens divide

20 May 2010 - The Guardian

Clearing demonstrators from the streets using military force is messy enough, but in a major political conflict like Thailand's, the sweeping-out operation is really the easy part.

Despite almost reaching a negotiated settlement with the protesters last week, the Thai authorities have ordered security forces to overrun the main redshirt encampments in central Bangkok, arresting major leaders and apparently shooting dead at least four people, including an Italian journalist, in a continuation of ham-fisted military tactics already condemned by Amnesty International.

The decision to use force against redshirt protesters was immediately applauded by government supporters - including many long-suffering Bangkok residents - but the costs of such a heavy-handed crackdown will be extremely high.

By opting for a military rather than a security solution, the government has lost the opportunity to craft a settlement for an orderly transition. A roadmap based on a plan for early elections in November had offered a possible way forward, and intermediaries, including the senate speaker and activist academics, had sought to broker further dialogue between the two sides. The UN also made a couple of overtures of assistance, which were immediately rebuffed by the government.

Following the death on Monday of renegade general Khattiya Sawasdipol, better known as Sae Daeng, of wounds inflicted by a sniper, the redshirts had lost their most hardline opponent of compromise.

Sae Daeng and his contingent of men, serving as a self-appointed security detail for the redshirts, had been a key factor in resisting earlier attempts to disperse the protests. The government now had the upper hand in any talks, and the demonstrations were probably within a few days of collapse.

The authorities' show of force today inflamed intense feelings of frustration, resentment and rage among the protesters, who had camped out for more than two months in 90F (32C) temperatures. Bangkok today is an angry city of impossible contradictions and unfathomable hatreds.

The end of the formal protests solves nothing; indeed, it seems to be ushering in a new and even more disturbing phase of random violence and mayhem. The deep-rooted tension between pro- and anti-Thaksin networks have not gone away.

These conflicts date back several years, reflecting a basic divide between two competing colour-coded patronage-based networks. The redshirts are broadly allied with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. They remain incensed that he was ousted in the disastrous September 2006 military coup which did nothing to dent his electoral support, especially in the populous north and north-east.

Opposing them are the yellowshirts, who are a royalist movement sympathetic to the present Democrat Party-led administration, the military and the bureaucracy. For them, Thaksin represents the dark side of Thai capitalism, seeking cynically to subvert the country's traditional institutions and values for his own advancement and advantage.

The divide between the two sides transcends social class and regional origin, splitting families and households across the nation.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of the issues – and the popular image of the redshirts as non-violent pro-democracy underdogs is woefully simplistic – normalcy will not be restored in Thailand until a genuine accommodation is reached between the two sides. Such an accommodation might take the form of a political deal, a power-sharing arrangement, or some kind of substantial decentralisation. Elections are needed, sooner rather than later, as part of this process.

Nobody should be fooled into thinking that this conflict is over. Whether the fires are quickly extinguished or continue to burn for many nights to come will depend on the willingness of the Thai authorities to act pragmatically, and to listen to voices of reason.

Duncan McCargo is professor of south-east Asian politics at the University of Leeds and author of Tearing Apart the Land: Islam and Legitimacy in Southern Thailand (Cornell University Press), which won the inaugural 2009 Bernard Schwartz prize from the Asia Society
 

Bangkok - how did it come to this?

20 May 2010 - Inside Story

"When the red shirts came to Bangkok on 12 March many thought that their rally would disperse after a few days, or at least no more than a week or so. The crowd was impressive – one of the biggest Bangkok had ever seen – though its impact was diminished by over-confident predictions by red-shirt leaders that one million rural protesters would descend on the capital. After the debacle of April 2009, when the red invasion of the ASEAN summit in Pattaya degenerated into street confrontations and an ignominious withdrawal from Bangkok, many thought, or hoped, that the red shirts would be satisfied with a short, sharp show of numerical strength.

But things have turned out very differently. The red shirts demonstrated remarkable resilience and logistical capability, and their protest activity paralysed parts of central Bangkok for more than two months. In late March, they managed to force Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to the negotiating table. The talks broke down, but the fact that Abhisit had “blinked” gave the red shirts hope that they may be able to push him further. Remarkably, the red crowd weathered the failed crackdown of 10 April, which left twenty-one protesters dead, some with their brains literally blown out by unseen snipers. Four soldiers also died in a grenade attack in what looked like a deliberate hit on a senior officer with close connections to the country’s queen. Extraordinary images emerged the next day showing protesters tearing apart armoured personnel carriers abandoned by inexperienced troops.

The 10 April violence hardened the resolve of the reds, making their campaign against Abhisit more personal than ever. They consolidated their protest at a downtown site in the midst of glittering shopping malls, offices, embassies and hospitals. Their numbers fluctuated, but buoyed by music, fiery speeches and the collective effervescence of a common cause the protesters maintained a strong presence behind their bamboo and tyre barricades. In true Thai style, street stalls selling food, drinks and red-shirt paraphernalia sprang up around the protest site. The government’s warnings and ultimatums were brushed aside.

What the past two months have shown is that the red shirts can move very effectively from grassroots mobilisation to the national political stage. But the movement has proven much less adept at withdrawal. Given the forces now arrayed against them, this proved a fatal flaw indeed.

On 3 May, Prime Minister Abhisit made a final offer, laying down what he described as a road map for national reconciliation. The centrepiece of the offer was an election on 14 November 2010, more than a year ahead of schedule. For a few days it looked like a peaceful resolution was in the offing. The reds took their time considering Abhisit’s offer, and their delays and qualifications appeared to be motivated not by intransigence but by a desire to step down from a position of strength. Then the deal came badly unstuck, seemingly over the theatrical technicality of precisely how the deputy prime minister (and security coordinator), Suthep Thaugsuban, should be called to account for the deaths of 10 April. The reds wanted him to report to the police; he insisted on reporting to an investigations office that fell under his own jurisdiction. The red-shirt leaders were also concerned about how the charges of terrorism against them would be handled. These very serious offences can be punished by life in prison or the death penalty in Thailand.

With the red shirts refusing to shift, and with talk of further reinforcements moving in from the provinces, things quickly spiralled out of control. Prime Minister Abhisit withdrew his offer of an election, issued a final ultimatum to clear the protest site and then sent in the troops on the afternoon of 13 May and gain on 19 May. Conflict continues even after the army’s blockade around the main protest site precipitated a surrender from red shirt leaders. Credible reports indicate that army snipers have been shooting protesters. The red shirts responded with homemade fireworks, molotov cocktails and a seemingly endless supply of burning tyres. Roaming gangs of red shirts and rough-and-ready motorcycle taxi drivers succeeded, for a time, in establishing new sites of protest and disruption, building barricades or burning tyres and harassing the army in an urban battle with no clear front line. Among the protesters were some more conventionally armed men who are using pistols and M79 grenade launchers; the origins of these “men in black” is mysterious, but they may represent disgruntled elements in the army or pro-red members of the paramilitary organisations that are part of the formal Thai security apparatus.

Despite the surprising level of resistance shown by the red shirts in these engagements, it has been an uneven contest. So far, almost all of the dead have been protesters, bystanders or medics attending to the wounded. The death toll looks certain to rise as the clashes continue and as other parts of Thailand are potentially drawn into a wider civil conflict; some are already sceptical that the official count reflects the true number of fatalities.

So why didn’t the red shirts withdraw when Abhisit put his 14 November election offer on the table? All the signs pointed to a win by the red shirts’ political allies, the opposition Pheua Thai (For Thailand) Party, at a November election. Why couldn’t the red shirts wait just a few more months to achieve their political objective? Many lives may have been saved.

In the coming weeks and months much will be written about what went on within the red-shirt leadership during the early weeks of May 2010. There are strong signs of a split between moderate and hardline forces. There is much government-led speculation about the role of exiled prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in scuttling the deal. Many of the protesters remain fiercely loyal to Thaksin and there is little doubt that his financial backing has assisted the massive logistical effort involved in staging such a long protest. Some assert that Thaksin is interested in stoking chaos; others suggest that his interests would have been much better served if his political allies could form government after a November election. Much remains unknown and sorting out the details of what went on as the red shirts debated their response to Abhisit’s deal will have to wait until the fog of war clears a little.

But there is a much more fundamental reason for the failure of the red shirts to withdraw and the violent immolation of Ahbisit’s road map: Thailand has lost faith in electoral democracy.

Abhisit’s offer of a November election may have seemed reasonable, perhaps even generous to some, but it was essentially meaningless in a country where respect for electoral decisions has evaporated. The red shirts don’t need long memories to recognise the flimsiness of his offer. Just four years ago, in March 2006, following an earlier round of street protests, Thaksin Shinawatra called a snap election. The Democrat Party, led by Abhisit, decided to boycott the election, because they knew that they would lose. In the end Thaksin’s party received about 60 per cent of the votes cast but the result was cancelled by the courts on a dubious technicality.

Another Thaksin victory was likely in a repeat election scheduled for late 2006. That’s why the army staged its coup on 19 September 2006, pushing aside the most electorally popular government Thailand has ever seen. Although Abhisit said that he disapproved of coups, he has been the main political beneficiary of Thaksin’s removal. But he still couldn’t manage to win an election. In the post-coup election of December 2007 the Thaksin-aligned People Power Party won just short of an absolute majority. Many in the Bangkok elite wouldn’t accept that result either. The anti-Thaksin yellow shirts took to the streets when the new government was only a few months old, occupying Government House and eventually shutting down Bangkok’s international airport. This campaign to overthrow the elected government had the backing of Abhisit’s Democrats, and they got their way when the ruling party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court. With some army-led arm-twisting, Abhisit was finally able to stitch together a parliamentary majority.

Given the chain of events that brought Abhisit to power, why would the red shirts place their faith in his offer of an election? Powerful figures within the government are extremely reluctant to subject themselves to electoral judgement, so how could red-shirt leaders persuade the doubters in their midst that the road map could be trusted? With the yellow shirts openly hostile to the deal, how could the red shirts be confident that they wouldn’t seek to disrupt it?

And even if an election went ahead, recent history underlines the likelihood of extra-electoral intervention, either on the streets or in the courts, to overturn the result. Repeatedly vilified as Thaksin’s crowd-for-hire, how could the red shirts be confident that their future votes wouldn’t be dismissed once again as the product of money politics? Could they rely on the palace to add its moral authority to a defence of the electoral process? Of course not.

The red shirts may have made a fatal error in not accepting Abhisit’s 14 November deal. But their decision is just one facet of a much bigger problem. Thailand’s fatal flaw is its loss of faith in the electoral process, which has opened the way for hardliners to pursue violent alternatives. Even after the surrender of red shirt leaders on 19 May there is potential for further conflict and bloodshed. Sabotage, reprisals and protests in other parts of the country are now being reported. Violence on all sides is deplorable, but remember that those who condemn the red-shirt provocations most vigorously are also those who have consistently denied the legitimacy of their peaceful statements at the ballot box. "

Andrew Walker and Nicholas Farrelly are Southeast Asia specialists in the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University. In 2006 they co-founded New Mandala, a website on mainland Southeast Asian affairs.

What next for Korea?

20 May 2010

A North Korean attack was always the most likely explanation for the two month old attack on the South Korean gunshio, Cheonan. But the South Koreans and her allies were careful not to immediately escalate the situation. The last thing that prosperous South Korea needs is to be back fighting with North Korea.

But, finally an official statement has been made that evidence overwhelmingly proves North Korea fired a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship in March, killing 46 sailors, investigators said today.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed "stern action" for the provocation and called an emergency security meeting for Friday, the presidential Blue House said.

But what can he do? North Korea has warned that any retaliation over ship sinking will trigger 'all-out' war

The long-awaited investigation results from a multinational team said a torpedo caused a massive underwater explosion that tore the Cheonan apart on March 26.

Fifty-eight sailors were rescued from the frigid Yellow Sea waters near the Koreas' maritime border but 46 perished — South Korea's worst military disaster since the end of the three-year Korean War in 1953.

Fragments recovered from the waters near the Koreas' maritime border indicate the torpedo came from communist North Korea, investigators said.

"The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine. There is no other plausible explanation," the South Korean-led investigation team said.

The civilian and military investigation team included experts from South Korea, the U.S., Australia, Britain and Sweden.

North Korea has denied involvement in the sinking of the 1,200-ton warship. Vice parliamentary speaker Yang Hyong Sop earlier this week criticized Seoul for "unreasonably" linking his country to the incident, according to the North's state radio station.

The report's release is likely to further increase tensions on the divided Korean peninsula, where the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, rather than a peace treaty. The land border is the world's most heavily armed, and the western sea border has been the site of several deadly naval clashes since 1999.

North Korea disputes the maritime border drawn by the United Nations at the close of the war in 1953.

Thailand updates - 20 May 2010

Morning Update

No BTS or MRT today.

Banks closed

400-500 protesters have been reported transported home yesterday - many were left overnight in the Patumwanaram temple - where there may have been as many as 3,000 people.

Gunshots ring out near temple in heart of protest zone in BKK, soldiers are advancing on foot along elevated train track: AFP

Siam Square Soi 4-5 have been gutted.

Col Apiwan told Spring News 9 were shot dead at Patumwanaram Temple last night. AFP reported the same number.

Police officer on TPBS says security situation much improved but concerns remain about Ratchaprasong, Klong Toei and Din Daeng area.

Fires under control.

Red-shirt leaders Korkaew Pikulthong and Veera Musikapong to turn themselves in to crime suppression police today.

Curfew extended to Saturday, shortened to 9pm-5am, effective in all Emergency Decree declared areas throughout Thailand.

Higher Sukhumvit - business as normal. Shops, supermarkets, pubs all open. Curfew will still apply at night.

Government: 44 dead so far

Reality check

19 May 2010

I am truly fed up with the nonsense from Mr. Robert Amsterdam:

This is the latest in The Australian. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/red-shirts-had-good-reason-to-protest/story-e6frg6zo-1225868871732

And the following is my comment sent to the Australian web site which will probably never get published:

"Mr. Amsterdam is the hired hand of a convicted criminal living in exile who also happens to be an ex PM of Thailand.

I am no fan of military coups. I am no fan of Abhisit's government but Mr Amsterdam needs to do some research into his client.

For an alleged human rights lawyer he conveniently forgets the thousands dead under Thaksin's war on drugs; the abuses at Tak Bai; Thaksin's constant abuses of press freedoms, and rampant vote buying.

Thaksin conveniently altered the laws so that his Shin Corp profited hugely and could then be sold without any payment of tax.

The man is corrupt. And he was tried and sentenced.

The red shirts do have the right to vote - after all they elected Thaksin and his surrogates. The Democrats do lead a legal coalition government under the Thai constitution (just as the Tories and Lib Dems area allied in the UK) and another election is due before the end of 2011 So Amsterdam's last para has is already fully available to the red shirts.

How does Amsterdam justify Thakin's red shirt militia torching buildings in BKK and the provinces in what are clearly planned attacks?

The Klong Toei slum area is home to 300,000 people and close to the MEA and SET fires as well as the channel 3 fire. Tesco Lotus on Rama 4, also torched, backs onto a slum community. If fires had spread into those communities the casualties would be huge.

Amsterdam's rants (in any paper that is desperate enough to print them) are making a bad situation worse.

Honestly, Mr. Amsterdam, if you really are a human rights lawyer you would end this travesty now and be embarrassed to have been paid for it."

The Battle for Bangkok

19 May 2010

Pictures from today - http://tnews.teenee.com/politic/50814.html from Reuters/AP/Getty

Warning - very graphic

And another set of pictures from the Boston Globe - http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/crackdown_in_bangkok.html#photo30

More pictures:

It has been a very long day. And in all reality an appalling day for the red shirted people. There hugely reduced numbers were easily rounded up around the main stage and they will rot in jail for minimum two year terms without trial. SO much for justice. But their hero, Thaksin, was not great on the judicial process either.

Meanwhile the arson attacks across Bangkok and in some provinces will have alienated anyone who might have sympathised with the red shirt cause. This should be the end of their movement. No one can support or sanction the huge detsruction of property that has taken place.

And with no red shirts support Thaksin is now an exile for life. And he will need to keep hiding.

Here are the days main events:

12.00am Power and water cuts at Siam may have meant that the Central World sprinkler system did not work as it should. So army actions contributed to the prorlwm.

11.30pm BMA official: After 9 hrs of fire at Central World, the ZEN section has been totally gutted.

11.15pm "The fires irrevocably ends the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil." I think this is right.

11.05pm Someone rightly notes that it is quite clear from that list of buildings burnt - stock exchange, banks, TV stations, shopping centres - this was not random or mindless

10.05pm Thai PM is on TV in Thailand - at last

9.35pm Rumour - is facebook is now blocked in Thailand? No.

9.15pm Someone asked -  how are you supposed to keep count of how many died, when the army take away the dead before anyone can get near?

9.00pm 6 points on fire 1) Siam Theatre 2) Paragon 3) CWT 4) Centara Grand Hotel 5) Bangkok Bank 6) Siam City Bank

8.55pm Sounds like many people are still trapped in Wat Patum

8.45pm Mark MacKinnon Medics around me say 7 dead 10 injured inside Wat Patum temple, which was supposed to be sanctuary. I'd guess 1500 to 2000 terrified ppl

8.30pm This looks much more like a rebellion or an uprising. The red shirts provide a rallying point for all sorts of dissidents, militants, disenfranchised, and angry. And even a few Thaksin supporters. As long as the army does not split or join the rebellion then I don't see a civil war.

8.15pm Reuters Analysis:  Thailand's military and police have a congenital inability to keep out of politics -- there have been 18 actual or attempted coups in the past eight decades. The longer it takes to quell violence and unrest, the likelier a coup becomes.

8.00pm Curfew starts now  - in 21 provinces - troops can shoot on site if suspect arsen, looting or incitement. Otherwise if you are out you can be arrested and imprisoned for two years.

7.50pm RIP Siam Theatre - 44 years ago the first movie screened at Siam was "Rot Tung Prachan Ban", charging only Bt7 for a front-row seat.

7.50pm Government spokesman Panitan says on pooled TV the authorities ask for public cooperation in helping maintain public order and report to the authorities, on 199, any arson attempts and other destabilizing conducts during the 8 pm-6 am curfew on Wednesday night

7.50pm The Bank of Thailand declared Thursday and Friday would be bank holidays around the country for reaons of public safety and all Thai financial institutions will be closed, it said in a statement

7.50pm Thai authorities ordered all TV stations on Wednesday to only broadcast government-sanctioned programmes, instead of normal broadcasts.

7.50pm Foreign tourists and Thai travellers will be allowed to go to Bangkok airports on Wednesday night, getting a waiver from a curfew imposed by the authorities, government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn.

7.50pm The BBC says there is only silence and smoke left after protesters surrendered. What was once a glitzy shopping area has been devastated.

7.30pm Ubon Ratchathani town hall burned down.

7.10pm 7:06pm: Charnvit Kasetsiri, a prominent political historian who specialises in modern political movement, described the latest phenomenon to Reuters as "the most widespread and most uncontrollable" political violence Thailand has ever seen.

7.10pm  Bangkok burning: protesters torched at least 17 buildings, including the Thai stock exchange and Central World, Southeast Asia's second-biggest department store complex and operated by Central Pattana PCL. The store was gutted by fire and looked like it may collapse, said a Reuters witness.

7.05pm Andrew Spooner on Twitter "Source tells me elite/military blocked Redshirt govt amnesty that would've sealed Road Map deal - says things were "very complicated""

7.05pm Bank of Thailand ordered all banks, financial institutions closed May20-21 for safety reasons

7.05 pm Collateral damage as one person send this message: "My poor landlady in DinDaeng: her puppy broke his neck when a grenade went off & he was startled & fell. She is heartbroken :("

Have to go out - follow Reuters for updates.

Curfew: Curfew in BKK for tonight from 8pm-6am - This curfew is the first time in 18 years since Bloody May in 1992

4.00pm Bulldozers and heavy equipment are already cleaning up the main rally site.

4.00pm This may be accurate - "Looks like carefully chosen arson & violence attacks. Someone stays in control. Who. Bet next are targeted killings." The targets do look like a planned attack.

4.00pm Ch 3 off the air, TAN, Bangkok Post, Nation evacuating their staff from their offices in Bangkok.

4.00pm Will non reds need to arm to protect themselves - when will the PAD come out ?

3.45pm "The government may be able to retrieve the Rachaprasong intersection by using troops, but it will face a tougher task in winning the hearts and minds of the rural people whose relatives were attending a relatively peaceful rally and have been killed or wounded in the crackdown." Boonyakiat Karavekphan, political scientist, Ramkhamhaeng University

3.45pm ThaiPBS reporter states there is fire at Siam Square. Cinema is on fire; fire has spread to MK restaurant in Siam Square

3.45pm Troops are using live rounds on protesters in Chiang Mai - multiple sources

3.30pm ThaiPBS reporter states there is fire at Siam Square. Cinema is on fire; fire has spread to MK restaurant in Siam Square

3.25pm SET on fire. BKK Post and Nation evacuating. Channel 3 TV building under attack.

Surely the CRES Mission Accomplished announcement was a little premature. Situation is not under control. Arson attacks throughout the city.

3.10pm Central Ladphrao and Central Bangna are both closed.

3.05pm TV footage shows fire at Udon Provincial Hall. Hundreds of reds runing amok. - Nation

3.00pm 5 red-shirt leaders brought to undisclosed location; Jatuporn uses MP status to provide immunity from charges - TNN.

2.40pm Giant clouds of smoke at Din Daeng, CentralWorld and Paragon. Regular explosions and gunshots.

2.20pm New York Times - "Television footage showed soldiers opening fire at the backs of protesters running for cover."

2.20pm AFP: A curfew is to be imposed across Bangkok on Wednesday night, defence minister General Prawit Wongsuwon said.

2.15pm "Suppression without accommodation results in a better armed movement." Thitinan Pongsudhirak

2.15pm INN: Dindaeng red-shirt protesters announce independence from main gathering

2.15pm - Bangkok burning

2.10pm People left very quickly from the main site - Al-Jazeera reports that food is still cooking.

2.05pm CRES Briefing underway - CRES via Col Sansern: center had to reclaim Lumpini Park as it was a known terrorist hideout

Sansern calls red leaders who have surrendered - Jatuporn, Nuttawut - as terrorist leaders. General situation under our control - we have stopped troop advancement operations.

2.00pm More explosions reported at chidlom. I doubt that reds at khlong toei will follow nattawuds request to surrender. They are agitated

1.55pm Key Red Shirt leaders Nuttawut and Jatuporn are arrested by police (Thai PBS)

1.52pm A lot a very angry people in chiang mai

1.49pm Nattawud: Don't worry. We won't lose our freedom for a long time. Everyone go home safely.

1.45pm Leaders surrender - but I suspect the fighting is not over. Good decision. Avoids unnecessary loss of life.

1.45pm Jatuporn seen paying respect to image of HM the King before walking inside to meet police interrogators

1.45pm Bulldozers already moving in to red stage site

1.30pm I am not sure that a surrender by moderate red shirt leaders will actually stop the fighting.

1.30pm Nattawud: we have tried our best for the sake of the country, but when we see so much death, it has to stop. (Shouts of protest.) Our struggle is not finished,but we cannot allow u here to give your lives for us today.

1.23pm Opposition chief whip Witthaya said seven UDD leaders will surrender to police at 1.30pm today /BkkPost

1.20pm Must be time to surrender and avoid further loss of life. But even if moderates surrender will that stop the militants

1.17pm Thai News Agency reports at least 5 people have been killed including an Italian journalist and over 50 people have been wounded.

1.13pm Elite Thai troops deployed in #Bangkok have been authorised to shoot on sight people looting, committing arson or inciting unrest

1.10pm Protesters torch both buildings of Udon Thani city hall; shots heard

1.10pm TAN network - 7 red leaders to surrender: Jatuporn, Nutthawut, Weng, Jeng Dokjik, Korkeaw,Wiputalang, Nisit

1.05pm BBC: army ordered to shoot to kill, journalists injured

1.00pm Khong Toey: many explosions!! Shots very near by MRT !!! Its dangerous!!

12.17pm Red shirts are surrounded - surely time to wave the white flag. Save lives and let people leave. That must be what the army wants. Red shirts say that they have at least 7,000 at the main stage.

12.15pm Exiled ex-PM Thaksin said on Wednesday he fears a crackdown on anti-government protesters could lead to guerrilla warfare across the country. "There is a theory saying a military crackdown can spread resentment and these resentful people will become guerrillas," Thaksin told Reuters in a telephone interview, declining to say where he was.

Where is Thaksin?

12.14pm 4 people, including Italian jounalist, killed, at least 50 wounded during clashes - MCOT

Quick update - some 300 troops are very slowly and carefully marching from Silom/Saladaeng towards the main stage at Ratchaprasong. Meanwhile the red shirts continue to make speeches and play music on the stage.

Sensible army approach - trying to minimise casualties.

Other red shirt groups - mainly red militia - have set up stages and barricades elsewhere in the city - in Bon Kai for instance. The likelihood is of guerilla type battles around the city.

12.10pm Al-Jazeera - 5 people dead.

12.10pm Dominic Faulder on Al-Jazeera "A big green elephant to crack a little red mouse"

12.05pm Comment on Reuters blog - This is a power play at the highest level with the "red shirts" as pawns.

12.00 pm Bangkok burning

11.58pm In Khon Khaen. Redshirts are storming the City Hall (TPBS) - will there be trouble in other Thai cities

11.58pm Various Thai media confirming that soldiers slowly approaching Ratchprasong stage; not many protesters left in front of stage

11.54pm Thai news agency says 4 people killed, more than 50 wounded in morning operation

11.35pm The govt. has set up an assembly point at the National Stadium, for those protesters who would like a free lift home

11.35pm We are waiting, not for death, but to see if troops will leave, Somchai says.Don't do anything yet, he tells crowd. Govt may change its mind.

11.35pm Wire agencies saying foreign reporters injured, possibly one killed in bkk. Very worrying news.

11.35pm Al Jazeera saying troops continued to fire on medical staff as they attempted to help those injured.

11.35pm AP photographer sees 3 foreign journalists shot during Bangkok army operation, 1 appears dead.

11.35pm Closing in on Red stage at protest centre. As soldiers advance, Reds still defiantly sitting on ground, playing music.

<yle="margin-left: 3; margin-right: 3">Journos in redzone nervous after gunfire close to Maneeya Centre balcony & BBC biker threated by guy in black w/ knife - Security in the building told the tv crews they cannot do live broadcasts on the balcony because of risk of snipers. (Maneeya Centre is the home of Bangkok's Foreign Cor

Guests at Bangkok's Dusit Thani hotel told to shelter in basement after building hit by gunfire- AFP (hard to imagine that there are still guests in the hotel given the location!)

Censorship alert - CNN's iReport confirmed to be blocked on True ISP within Thailand.

Bangkok's war zone

15 May 2010 - from Reuters/AP/AFP/Getty
 

The strangest picture is the warning of a Life Firing Zone - meant to be a Live Firing Zone but it may as well have been named a Life Ending Zone. There is worse to come. How will this end? When will it end?

Thailand’s sideshow is over

15 May 2010 - New Mandala

"For those who though yesterday’s event was bad, think again. The real fight is just unfolding. Yesterday’s clashes gave forces from both sides a good feel of one another’s strength and resolve. Like two cautious pugilists meeting in the ring for the first time after a much hyped promotion, clashes between the Government troops and red demonstrators thus far is probably only a prelude to what’s in the offing.

The next few days are likely to see heavy fighting. The ground zero is still teeming with reds and others outside the perimeters of Ratchaprasong intersection are getting organised. At least one source indicates that some taxi and tuk-tuk drivers are getting organised at Suan Phlu, which is adjacent to Lumpini/Silom area. The areas saw heavy clashes yesterday. Drivers of motorcycle taxis along Sathorn road are also telling some pedestrians on the street to go back home as they expect more clashes.

Whichever it plays out, eventually from a physical perspective, the reds will inevitably bow down. They can create mayhem (reports are coming in indicating they have set fire to some buildings around the Lumpini boxing stadium), but that’s probably the furthest they can go. Of course, the much vaunted black-clad paramilitary troops haven’t made their grand entry. If they do, it would perhaps prolong the battle a bit more. On the other hand, the shadowy group might perhaps remain shadowy now that their alleged head Maj. Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol’s influence had been incapacitated by a well-placed .308 bullet.

But physical battle is just part of it. The real fight is politics. Who will emerge victorious from a PR perspective is the key to understand how things will unfold. Both parties (as well others in the game) will be shuffling their steps and doing verbal gymnastics (more than then the usual, that is) to get the positioning right, so that when everything settles down, they are able to get out of this mess with relatively less taint.

What I have written thus far is of course conventional wisdom. But will conventional wisdom rule the day in a country where politics has become so convoluted that no serious political analyst/journalist can actually write something without ever having a second thought? I am not too sure. There are simply too many political players and the dynamics in terms of political interest against political resources is changing so quickly that probably only the main leaders might have an inkling of what’s happening. While the reds and the Government forces are having a go at each other, the unseen hands of the Privy Council, PAD (yellow-shirts) and the army/police are actively at work. And of course we should also not discount the health conditions of the two key protagonists in the drama – Thaksin Shinawatra and King Bhumibol Adulyadej. How will that play out?

This simply means that whatever the outcome of the battle in the next few days, one thing is sure, the war is still on. It is a war which not only has the boxers in the ring slugging it out, but also with the real possibility of having the umpire (police/army), cornermen (yellow/multicoloured faction) and the crowd (Privy Council and other forces, including foreigners) entering the ring to get a piece of the action. The smart money is that the Government of the day led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will be the first casualty.

But everyone is fighting it out without considering the enormous economic and political ramification to Thailand as a whole. Thailand’s economic growth for the year will be badly hampered if matters prolong. As it is this year’s drought will have a telling impact on country’s exports of agri-produce. The tourism sector is in sorry state. FDI numbers are being affected by the Map Tha Phut case. Political instability will further erode FDI numbers, which is Thailand