Bad laws sprouting in Brussels

30 April 2010

Belgian lawmakers in the lower house of the federal parliament have voted overwhelmingly to ban the wearing of the Islamic burqa in public.136 deputies voted for a nationwide ban on clothes or veils that do not allow the wearer to be fully identified, including the full-face niqab and burqa.

There were just two abstentions. No one voted against.

The ban will be imposed in streets, public gardens and sports grounds or buildings “meant for public use or to provide services” to the public, according to the text of the bill.

People who ignore the new law could face a fine of 15-25 euros ($20-$34) and/or a jail sentence of up to seven days.

The government's argument is that people cannot be recognised while wearing the clothing.

But who can be recognised while they where a motorcycle helmet? Who can be recognised wrapped up in hoodies on a cold day? So let's ban helmets and hoodies. Let's ban facial hair as well.

The upper house of parliament has two weeks to raise any objections to the decision.

Amnesty International has condemned the move in a statement issued on Thursday. “A complete ban on the covering of the face would violate the rights to freedom of expression and religion of those women who wear the burqa or the niqab,” said John Dalhuisen, Amnesty’s expert on discrimination in Europe.

“The Belgian move to ban full face veils, the first in Europe, sets a dangerous precedent,” he warned. Amnesty called on the upper house to review the legislation, adding it believed the move was in breach of Belgium’s obligations under international human rights law. There was no “demonstrable link between the wearing of full face veils in Belgium and genuine threats to public safety,” Mr Dalhuisen argued.

This is bad legislation that will reinforce prejudice and violate freedoms of expression and religion. It should not be allowed to proceed.

Don't give up on Thailand

30 April 2010

Canada is the latest country to issue a travel warning against visiting Thailand. But it really does not make sense.

The Canadian federal government upgraded its travel warning for Thailand Wednesday, telling Canadians to avoid the kingdom marred by political violence.

In a statement, Canada's Foreign Affairs Department advised against non-essential travel to Thailand because of ongoing large-scale political demonstrations marked by violence, injuries and deaths.

"The security situation is very volatile with significant potential for further civil unrest, violent clashes and attacks," the department said.

Don't give up on Thailand. SImply fly there and avoid central Bangkok.

The airport is modern and safe. The domestic airlines will fly you to the North or to Koh Samui or Phuket. Taxis and buses will take you to the southern resorts or to Rayong (go to Koh Samet) and Pattaya.

Travel to the North. Go south to lovely Hua Hin. Go to Pattaya if you have to. Head west for Kanchanaburi and the River Kwai.

You do not see Thailand by going to Bangkok. Bangkok is basically another big asian metropolis. Sure it has palaces and temples. But it also has malls and designer stores and you could be anywhere in the world. This is the time not to go to Siam's hi-so malls. This is the time to take the path less traveled. You will have a much better holiday.

Big US aviation merger ahead

30 April 2010

Following rapidly on the merger of Delta and NorthWest comes the expected merger of United and Continental

Continental Airlines Inc. and UAL Corp.'s United Airlines are expected to announce next Monday that they are merging to form the world's largest airline by passengers carrie.

The merged airline will be run under the UA name and led by CO's senior management.

Continental has apparently agreed to allow the combined airline to be based in Chicago, United's home base. Jeff Smisek, Continental's chief executive officer, will become CEO of the merged carrier; Glenn Tilton, UAL's CEO, would become non-executive chairman for two years, after which Mr. Smisek would take over that role.

This leaves American Airlines looking a little vulnerable as the one major US airline that has avoided domestic consolidation. American has been courting an international alliance with British Airways and Iberia.

When Delta and Northwest merged the Northwest name dies.

When US Air and American West died the America West name died.

Now the Continental name will go; following the long list of great American Airlines that have gone - TWA, Pan American, Eastern, Northwest

This will leave United, American and Delta as the three major US carriers US Airways struggling as the perpetual ugly bridesmaid that the other airlines would happily screw but never marry. And Southwest, JetBlue and AirTran as the major LCC operators.

CRES must show proof

30 April 2010 - Bangkok Post editorial of 29 April

"Some things should never be forgotten. Especially now, when conflicting groups appear so intent on toppling each other that they have thrown all caution to the winds, we should not forget the lessons of pain and anguish experienced in our past.

The allegation of conspiracy to overthrow the monarchy is a serious one, because it can stimulate extreme emotion and reaction among the public. For the Centre for the Resolution of Emergency Situation (CRES) to bandy this allegation about rather casually - backing its claim with only a chart cluttered with names supposedly linking them to the alleged plot - is at best a reckless move.

This is especially so in light of the present situation. The confrontation between protesters led by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has intensified to the point where things could boil over at any minute. To lay such an inflammatory charge against a group of people (most of whom, if not all, stand in opposition to the government) without solid proof risks fuelling the volatile situation even further.

Truth be told, the CRES' chart does not offer any depth of new information to the public. Any citizen who has been following the news will already be familiar with the materials produced by people the centre alleges to be harbouring malicious intent towards the monarchy. That the CRES has drawn some lines on a chart linking these people into a network is not proof enough that such a network really exists. To convince the public of the truth of such a conspiracy and to be fair to all the people implicated by the chart, the CRES must come up with much clearer evidence; in other words, implications are not enough.

PM Abhisit says people involved in this "network" could face legal action. Such a statement is easy to make. The point is, he should be making such a claim only with strong and solid proof in hand - before revealing people's names and claiming they are connected in one way or another to such a sensitive issue.

Some politicians and academics have already come out to deny the accusation, namely, Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Puea Thai party's advisory chairman. Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, however, insists a summons will be issued and if Gen Chavalit refuses to report to the CRES after two summonses, he will face an arrest warrant. It is hoped Deputy PM Suthep and the CRES have a strong enough case against this veteran soldier and former prime minister. The government must proceed in a transparent and lawful manner.

The Thai people have witnessed how the use of extreme nationalism and hate campaigns can poison the minds of the people and turn fellow citizens against one another, usually with violent and regrettable results. We have also seen similar cases of civil unrest, even war, that broke out in other countries because of the same reasons. Certain dates in our political calendar are marked with losses and remembered with sorrow because an instigation was allowed to get out of control.

We cannot emphasise enough how vulnerable and volatile the situation at this moment is. Recklessness and extremism have never helped us solve a crisis - they have only made matters get way out of hand, to everybody's regret. That much we should have learned."

Election is Cameron's to lose

30 April 2010

In one week the British people will elect David Cameron as the new Prime Minister.

After tonight's final debate we are back where we were when the campaign started. Is Britain ready for the return of the Conservatives from the political wilderness under David Cameron.

Overall I thought it was a disappointing, cautious debate No one was willing to be honest about how bad the economy is and the pain that is ahead.

It did feel like Nick Clegg's weakest debate. You simply cannot keep attacking political point scoring in a political debate. Not good enough. You cannot have just one economic policy - no tax to be paid on the first gbp 10,000 of income. Maybe there are other policies - this one just got mentioned as an answer to almost every question.

Today was the day when I decided that maybe Nick Clegg and the LibDems offer little more than muddied confusion.

Beating up bankers gets dull after a while. It wins votes. But the bankers, the brightest and best of them will simply lead a brain drain out of the country.

Clegg got rather ignored/marginalised tonight. Stuck in the middle but by-passed.

Gordon Brown was strong on the economy (as he should be). And I liked his final line; "things are too important to be left to risky policies under these two people." It was dangerous but he really had nothing to lose.

So where are we. I don't think Clegg has done enough to be a game changer. People will vote for the system they know; the British do not and will not trust a hung parliament to be effective.

So David Cameron looks like your new Prime Minister. Get used to it. He probably wont have enough votes to have a working majority but he may be very close I just feel that the Liberal euphoria may be about to burst. This would be a shock for the Liberals who are polling at around 30% currently.

So how about:

Conservatives            310            38%
Labour                       252            30%
Liberal                         60            23%
Others                         28              9%

Total                         650

Hospital farce

30 April 2010

It was a quieter day in Bangkok today but the red shirts surely made a tactical error when more than 200 red-shirt guards stormed into Chulalongkorn Hospital last night to check if there were soldiers inside the hospital buildings.

The hospital is located right next to the red-shirt rally site.

Hospital director Dr Adisorn Patradul initially refused to let the red shirt members into the hospital complex. Adisorn gave in after red shirt co-leader Payap Panket, who has an outstanding arrest warrant, insisted that he be allowed to inspect the area.

Aisorn only allowed Payap, five red-shirt guards and a gaggle of reporters to enter. However many other red-shirt guards poured into the hospital buildings as soon as the door was opened.

The search went on in front of bewildered nurses and doctors and lasted about one hour until police arrived to negotiate - and found themselves negotiating with Payap, despite the arrest warrant. The talks ended with an agreement for the red-shirt guards to be allowed to check the hospital again today.

Chulalongkorn Hospital had already stopped receiving new patients while nearby Police General Hospital had transferred patients to buildings that were farther away from the demonstration.

This is not right - the hospital suspended all surgery. The hospital has to look after its patients. And it just looks hopeless when the police are standing next to a wanted red shirt leader and take no action.

This is Thailand without leadership.


Britain's voteless immigrants

30 April 2010

"Bigot gate" made immigrants a central election issue. Why? Ignorance mainly. "Flocking eastern Europeans" was the term used by supposedly Labour supporting Gillian Duffy in her meeting with Gordon Brown. Very tolerant of her.

Who are these people? They are workers who contribute to the UK economy and to UK society. They probably pay into the tax system more than they get back out of it. they are or working age not retirement age; are less likely to draw on the NHS and are unlikely to stay long enough in Britain for a pension. And to be honest parts of the UK economy probably would collapse without immigrant labour;

And while they work very hard they dont have a vote. They can therefore be used as a cheap target for political point scoring. Gordon Brown had to apologise to Ms. Duffy. But no one has apologised to the people that she dismissed as flocking eastern europeans.

I am sure she does not think of herself as bigoted. But there was prejudice and ignorance - fuelled by the mass market tabloid journalism and television.

80% of so called British immigration is not immigration - it is integration. It is part of being in Europe and the acceptance of the free flow of labour around the European community.

Whether is is eastern europeans in the UK, the british across europe or asia, the philippinos around the world; the chinese in america or the indians and other nationalities in the UAE, immigrants make a massive contribution to the economy.

I have now lived for 22 years away from the country of my birth and as a guest in foreign lands. Yes, as an immigrant. Two of those countries have accepted me as a citizen or permanent resident. Because of what I have contributed to those countries; and what they have given to me.

Instead of the instant trepidation of immigration how about asking what is it like to be an immigrant in a foreign land? How does it feel to be so far away from home? To leave your life behind and start again from scratch? What is it like to live in a country where you have no voice? Why did they come here? What do and don't they like about the country they live in? What's it like where they come from? 

Listen. Don't judge.
 

Thai chaos leave power vacuum

29 April 2010 - Ravi Nessman, Associated Press Writer

"Renegade Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol helped construct the barricades paralyzing downtown Bangkok, has been accused of creating a paramilitary force among anti-government protesters and has vowed to battle his own army if it should launch a crackdown.

His actions have made him a fugitive from justice, yet he wanders freely in the streets of the Thai capital, signing autographs just yards (meters) from security forces keeping watch over the protesters.

Seven weeks into a stalemate that has turned parts of the city into a lawless protest camp, many are wondering why the government seems unable or unwilling to restore order.

"Red Shirt" protest leaders with arrest warrants on their heads lead demonstrations through the streets, sympathizers have set up roadblocks outside the city to stop police reinforcements from entering and no one in the government, police or military has publicly articulated a plan as to how to resolve the crisis.

"It's out of control. It's beyond imagination," said Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva says he wants a political solution but has called off negotiations until the protesters leave downtown.

That has left many here expecting a crackdown. But Siripan and other analysts question whether Gen. Anupong Paochinda, the army chief set for retirement in September, has the stomach for more bloodshed after earlier clashes claimed 27 lives in the worst political violence here in 18 years.

The loyalty of some soldiers, drawn from the same impoverished rural stock as many protesters, is in question as well. Authorities have also drawn criticism by bungling high-profile efforts to arrest Red Shirt leaders, including once instance in which a wanted leader escaped by rope from a hotel window as police raided the building.

Now, thousands of Red Shirts hide from the midday sun under rows of tents erected inside Bangkok's high-priced shopping district.

In an atmosphere reminiscent of a music festival, vendors selling red shirts, protest scarves and slingshots share street space with those selling Bob Marley T-shirts and Hello Kitty cell phone covers. Some came with pushcarts, plastic chairs and folding tables and opened street cafes, while others brought in mattresses and offered Thai massage.

There are rows of portable toilets and regular food deliveries from protest coordinators, who dish out curry and ice cream to supporters from metal vats on the back of pickup trucks.

The camp is protected by Khattiya's barricades of fencing, bamboo, tires and razor wire. Though he has been working with the protesters since at least last year, the military suspended him three months ago, and the courts issued an arrest warrant for him last month on weapons charges, the government only took its first major action against him on Thursday _ by shutting down his website.

Khattiya said he is not concerned that he might be arrested.

"What would they arrest me for? For walking around here among the protesters? Nonsense," he said.

It was the security forces who were afraid, he said.

"They couldn't believe civilians would dare to fight back," he said.

Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said it was government policy to arrest the protest leaders, but it was up to the police to determine how to carry it out.

Such a lengthy disruptive protest would be unthinkable in more authoritarian countries such as Myanmar or China. Even in democratic countries, it would be hard to imagine police allowing demonstrators to take over a premier shopping district _ akin to New York's 5th Avenue _ and set up a protest camp.

The demonstration calling for the dissolution of Parliament and new elections is costing businesses millions of dollars a day and wearing on many Thais.

A group of counter-demonstrators known as the Yellow Shirts demanded Thursday the government present a plan for ending the current stalemate and said they would support a declaration of martial law.

"The crisis has reached a critical point and has damaged the economy and society," they said in a petition to the government. "We would like to see the brave soldiers help us get rid of this illegal activity and bring peace to Thai society as soon as possible."

But the Yellow Shirts themselves proved that paralyzing the nation is a winning strategy when they took over the prime minister's office and then Bangkok's airports in 2008 to help force a change in government.

Leigh Dixon, a former Australian police official who is now a security consultant based in Indonesia, said it would have been far easier to clear out the Red Shirts earlier in their nearly two-month protest, before they had erected barricades and other defensive measures.

The Thai authorities are now left with four difficult options: negotiate, lay siege to the protesters by cutting off their food and other essential services, raid the area with tear gas, water cannons and other nonlethal force, or seal them into their camp and ignore them, he said.

"You need to find a solution without using force," former Israeli police commissioner Assaf Hefetz said, "because people will be killed and that could flare into more violence."

Panitan, the government spokesman, said that while the prime minister is not negotiating with the protesters, he is meeting with community leaders and other political parties to find a compromise.

"He's looking for a political solution, at the same time we are also moving to make sure security issues are handled," he said, adding that the details and timing of any crackdown would be decided by the security forces.

Siripan, the political scientist, said she favors negotiations, but since the government has called them off, she could not understand why they weren't ordering a crackdown.

A confrontation between security forces and protesters Wednesday on the outskirts of the city offered a perfect opportunity for a raid on the encampment downtown, she said. A soldier was killed, providing a pretext for action, many protest leaders were outside their stronghold and Red Shirts were seeking shelter from a driving rain.

"It's confusing," she said."

South Korea's northern problem

29 April 2010

On 26 March 2010 the South Korean navy corvette Cheonan sank with the loss of 46 lives. The funeral of the crew was held today.Flags flew at half-mast, a siren wailed and families wept.

There is growing suspicion that North Korea was to blame.

"We'll never forgive whoever inflicted this great pain on us," navy chief Kim Sung-Chan told the mass funeral. We will track them down to the end and we will, by all means, make them pay for this."

But after a month little has been done. And the reality is that South Korea can do little. Any conflict with the north would irreparably impact the prosperity that the South has built in the last 20 years.

Investigators studying the two salvaged halves of the Cheonan say an external blast hit the ship underwater. The defence minister has said a heavy torpedo was among the likeliest causes, although Seoul has not openly blamed Pyongyang pending the outcome of a multinational probe by more than 100 investigators.

The communist North has denied involvement.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has set out a very deliberate investigation. From the beginning, an attack by North Korea was suspected. But only this week did South Korea's defense minister say publicly that a torpedo was the likely cause of the explosion, although he did not say where the torpedo came from.

The problem of concluding that North Korea did what it almost certainly did is that neither Mr. Lee, nor his US allies knows how to respond.

There will be no military reprisal. And asking the U.N. Security Council for more sanctions against the regime of Kim Jong Il would require the consent of China, which remains North Korea's strongest ally. In part because the last thing China needs is a flood of North Korean refugees.

Was the attack sanctioned by Kim? Was it the act of a rogue group in the North Korean army/navy? If the latter, does it mean greater instability in North Korea? The real issue is that North Korea appears to have taken a very well calculated gamble - that it can escalate tensions and get away with it.

Waking up to the fact that we have sunk so low
28 April 2010 by Tulsathit Taptim - The Nation

This is the voice of common sense from the Nation - and makes for sad, but honest, reading from a writer who clearly cares deeply for his country. You can follow him on twitter at http://twitter.com/tulsathit

"It's almost 5.30pm now, and the deadline's approaching, so I have decided to go wherever the keyboard and a lot of unsettled thoughts take me. This article probably has no theme, but, to me at least, this one is historic. This is my first op-ed piece that I write with the term "civil war", something we have talked so many times about over the past few years, being no longer just a cliche in my view.

Many people say they have seen it coming. But not me. I want to be truthful about that. I once wrote a sarcastic article about the People's Alliance for Democracy becoming an independent armed militia camped outside Government House, but that was to elicit some laughs. The joke, it now seems, is on another article entitled "The nation's head and heart spoke at once", which was meant to shed positive light on the 2008 election results that confirmed Thailand as being divided down the middle.

We never know, do we? And even though we might have sensed it, it was hard to imagine Thailand as it has become today. The "Land of Smiles" nametag wasn't acquired cheaply, but we are throwing it all away. We had been a nation of easy-come, easy-go people. It wasn't an entirely complimentary label but we were happy about it. We used to laugh away problems, never amplify them into senseless hatred.

Even after the red shirts declared their "phrai versus ammat" war, I still refused to admit it was coming. All the extreme vulgarity on the Web boards failed to convice me that Thais could hate each other so much. It's politics, I told myself. And it wasn't like we were a country where half the population had come from Mars and the other half from Venus. We were a family.

Last week my naive optimism was blown away: Of course we are capable of hating each other to death over something as absurd as political ideology. I had presumed that for a civil war to break out, it would take obscene taxes imposed on the poor, or land evictions on a grand scale, or Gestapo-type operations to keep tabs on whom everyone was worshipping. Now I think I could be wrong.

Reuters today said we were in serious danger of that nightmare coming true. Having seen clips of street showdowns between rival political demonstrators, having heard and read remarks from both sides, sadly I have to agree. Civil war or not, our country most likely will never be the same. The process of freefalling into an unknown destiny may have just begun.

It's up to each us whether to love or hate Thaksin Shinawatra. People see things differently. The real travesty is allowing whatever that feeling is to be manipulated and turned into hatred toward those who disagree. When we like something strongly, we are idealists; when we start hating something so strongly that we also hate those who like it, we become zealots.

Which is probably what many of us have become. The "colours" mean we can't change. They tell us who to love, hate and die for. There is no way but to go with the flow. If wars begin with stereotyping the other side, the enemy, we may already have crossed the threshold.

When the House of Representatives should be dissolved is the least of my concerns. Whether Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva survives the crisis is a trivial matter, and so is, dare I say it, a coup. Politics will sort itself out. It will sooner or later present us with an illusion that things will get back to normal, whether through a caretaker national government or a new constitution. One way or another, those who put us here in the first place will come up with a purportedly new formula and tell us everything is going to be just fine.

The pessimist in me - it arrived late but is coming on strong - says this is no longer a political problem and that's why it will be much more difficult to solve. The manipulators or instigators - whatever we want to call them - have won. The UK government is tracing its citizens who have booked flights to Thailand and telling them not to come to Bangkok. East Timor's independence fighter Ramos-Horta has said he has no clue how Thais went from political rivals to real-life enemies. Singapore is lecturing us about the values of democracy.

That's what we are talking about here, right? Democracy? The term is being used everywhere, by everyone, and in practically every rival organisation's name.

In tandem with "civil war", democracy has become a cliche now. And at this rate, it may remain so for a long, long time."

Thai Democrats to face Court

28 April 2010

Thailand's Constitution Court agreed on Wednesday to consider a case against the ruling Democrat Party for alleged misuse of funds granted by the Election Commission (EC), the court’s secretary-general Chaona Trimas said.

The case submitted by the EC was forwarded to the court by the attorney-general after the EC ruled to disband the Democrat Party led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva for two charges of misuse of a commission grant and unlawful donation money to the party in 2005.

The case regarding alleged misuse of the campaign donation is expected to be submitted to the attorney general next month.

The Democrat Party will be permitted to give its statement within 15 days or more, at the court’s discretion, and the EC may be asked to give additional information if needed.

If the Democrat Party, the country’s oldest political party is dissolved, some party executives, including Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, will be banned from political activities for five years, according to the Constitution.

The EC ruled the Democrat Party should be dissolved for misusing its Bt29 million allocation from the EC's political party development fund and accepting a Bt258 million donation alleged to have been made by the petrochemical firm TPI Polene Plc for the 2005 general election.

The EC ruled that the two actions of the Democrat Party could be considered as concealed acts and violated the Political Party Act. (TNA)

Hardtime on hardtalk for Thai PM

28 April 2010

This is my twitter summary (from last to first) of the Thai Prime Minster's grilling today on BBC's Hard Talk. Sometimes I feel sorry for PM Abhisit. Does he really belive what he is saying or is he saying what he knows he has to say.

I dont think he will survive as PM; he is going to be the PM that oversees a bloody crackdown or that refused to do anything - he cannot win either way.

BBC saying that soldier was killed by police fire
BBC needed to ask AV about the electoral commision charges against the Democrats....
No question of the Electoral Commission Charges - think the BBC missed that one - which is a shame
all sides need to take into account the views of the other side
AV - I have never put my interest above the country
AV - we are trying as best we can to restore order
AV - we are aiming for some kind of political solution - based on the rule of law
AV - party that had the biggest number of votes were charged in election fraud
BBC - you yourself have never won an election
AV - Thaksin was an acting prime minister because elections were going to be held ?????
BBC - you are a direct beneficiary of the coup
BBC - you came to g'ment assisted by a military coup
BBC - you never won an election
AV - a number of tasks that need to be completed - take no longer than nine months - open to discussions - blah blah blah !
AV - the publis feels that the g'ment should not give in to intimidation and terrorist tactics
Will BBC ask Abhisit about Democrat party corruption charges ??
AV - we should have discussions about when the elections are best held
AV - we had 2 rounds of open negotiations ! Err !! 30 minutes for TV !! He is creative in his answers !
AV - April 10 we have evidence of the men in black operating in the area of the red shirts
AV - it is not in my power to declare martial law - that is up to the armed forces
Brilliant @klustout RT @Anasuya: Abhisit Drinking Game: Everytime he says "rule of law", drink
AV - Try to separate hard line violent elements from peaceful protestors
What do you mean by minimum he was asked ! AV - we will have to be careful
AV - we are aiming to restore order as soon as possible - with minimum losses
AV - Protestors trying to escalate level of violence and tension
AV - The situation is becoming more controllable !!
AV - we underestimated the length to which some of the demonstrators would go to use weapons against ordinary people
AV - "situation has improved markedly" Really !!
AV - trying to avoid possible confrontations - AV was interviewed in army barracks
PM Abhisit on BBC Hardtalk now - remember this is taped (yesterday?) not live.

Changing the financial centre of the UAE?

28 April 2010

Reuters is reporting that a merger of the United Arab Emirates' two main bourses is imminent, two people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday, with the exchanges seeking to create a single market as trading revenue slumps.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) is seen as the driver of a merger with its domestic rival, the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), the sources said.

"The merger is being discussed at the highest level and the outcome is awaited imminently," an ADX official told Reuters, "It would be good for both markets, instead of them competing against each other. This is a sign of consolidation in the UAE." But it does appear to be consolidation driven by and in favour of Abu Dhabi.

The ADX is owned by Abu Dhabi, home to 90 percent of the UAE's oil reserves and one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, while Dubai, which holds an 80 percent stake in DFM through Borse Dubai, last month unveiled a $9.5 billion rescue plan for indebted government conglomerate Dubai World [DBWLD.UL].

DFM's profit fell by almost half in 2009 as market turnover slumped 43 percent to a five-year low of $47.2 billion. ADX turnover slid 70 percent last year to $19.1 billion.

This collapse in trading is spurring the UAE bourses to consolidate, analysts have said, with many questioning the wisdom of having three stock exchanges -- DFM, ADX and Nasdaq Dubai - in a country of 5 million people, while consolidation would likely boost liquidity and with it valuations.
 

Chitchob the changeling

27 April 2010

When reading this do remember that Newin Chidchob was banned from politics for 5 years - but it was his divorce of Thaksin and remarriage with Abhisit's Democrats that has allowed the Democrats to consitute their army backed government. Newin is also thought to be the blue shirt leader.

On Monday Newin Chidchob leader of the Bhum Jai Thai Party voiced his readiness to spearhead a campaign to protect the monarchy and fight the red-shirt menace.

"Law-enforcement officials must speedily tackle any offences against the monarchy, and if this fails I am ready to stand side by side with the people to protect His Majesty the King, the country's most revered figure," he said.

Newin said it was every Thai citizen's sacred duty to safeguard the monarchy and repel any attacks on the revered institution. .

The Nation notes that Newin was “once the right-hand man of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, (he) became a royalist after he was acquitted in a corruption case involving a rubber plantation last year.” Payback?

Newin has continued to chair many committees to organise events and ceremonies in praise of the monarchy. The blue-shirt movement aims to protect the Royal Family.

Until now he has been very quiet throughout the six weeks of protests. Biding his time maybe. And his time may well come soon.

Network of conspirators

27 April 2010

Thanong in the Nation talks up the evil plot in his op-ed piece today. This is the government chart of the alleged plot It was published by ASTV, Manager and Matichon yesterday.

Suthep Thuagsuban, the deputy prime minister, has announced that the Emergency Command Operation would summon all the suspects who are believed to be involved in a plot to overthrow the Monarchy for interrogation.

"Whether they are related to Thaksin Shinawatra or not, we don't care. We'll proceed with the legal process. We'll never allow anybody to offend the Monarchy," he said.

Suthep said the suspects will receive a summon to appear before the Emergency Command Operation. If they fail to show up, a second summon will be issued. If they still try to avoid the summon, an arrest warrant will follow.

Asked whether Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh would face a summon, Suthep said: "We are taking a look at it."

The big question is what kind of evidence will Suthep deem sufficient for a warrant? What evidence does he already have? Will the evidence be made public? And if it is not public why not. Claiming national security is a likely but feeble reasoning.

Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the spokesman of the Emergency Command Operation, yesterday released the names of the key personalities, whom he said have allegedly been involved in an attempt to overthrow the Monarchy. He said the Red Shirts have created all the turmoil to apply pressure on the authorities and raised the level of their protests to a terrorist rally.

"They have in their possession massive weapons and they have also been creating stories with fabricated information to attack the institution of high reverence," he said. "This scheme has been systematically executed by core leaders, sub-core leaders and many others who have faced arrest warrants or have escapted from the hands of the authorities."

Nutthawat Saikua, one of the leaders of the Red Shirts, said the list of conspirators to overthrow the Monarchy is a work of "imagination" and a "joke". He plans to assign the Red Shirts' lawyers to sue the government and the Emergency Command Operation for having produced this mud-slinging work.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has also confirmed the existence of this network of conspirators, whose aim is to overthrow the Monarchy. "They have been actively doing their work all the time," he said. Abhisit added that the government would have to educate the general public about this movement to overthrow the Monarchy and at the same time it would also have to resort to the legal means to go after the conspirators.

"We are beginning to see a clearer picture. The Emergency Operation Command will have to pursue this matter further," said Abhisit.

Allegedly central to this network of conspirators, according to the Emergency Operation Command, are Thaksin Shinawatra, Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Somchai Wongsawat, who are linked to the Pheu Thai Party and the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship. Apart from the community radios in the North and Northeast, the major media outlets of the Red Shirts are People Channel TV, Voice of Thaksin, Thai Red News and Truth Today.

Also included are Suriya Jungrungreangkit (ex Industry and Transport minister in the TRT government), Dr Weng Tojirakarn, Jakrapob Penkhair, Ji Ungphakorn, Adisorn Phiangket, Sutham Saengprathum; basically if you are not with us you are against us.

It is worth noting that the current Foreign Minister, Kasit Phirom, recently spoke in Washington DC and called for reform of the Thai monarchy in a changing world.

But he is not in the list of conspirators.

There is no evidence presented to support any of these conspiracy allegations. But the government does know that the King is revered by the Thai population. Any any possible conspiracy against the monarchy will ensure public support of a crack down.

Is ECO and the CRES the same thing I assume so.

Emirates summer flights to Medinah

27 April 2010

Emirates will launch a new service to Al Medinah al Munawarrah throughout summer, catering for increased demand during this peak travel period.

The twice weekly flights will be in place from 2nd July to 24th September 2010 and will be operated by an Airbus A330-200. The service will be available in a three-class configuration including; 12 First Class seats, 42 Business Class seats and 183 Economy Class seats.

The Emirates flight will depart Dubai each Friday and Sunday at 0115 hours and will arrive in Al Medinah al Munawarrah at 0300 hours. On the return journey the flight will depart Al Medinah al Munawarrah at 0435 hours, arriving in Dubai at 0815 hours.

This new, limited time, service means that Emirates will have four gateways into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia across the peak summer holiday.

Emirates currently operates 21 weekly flights to Saudi Arabia from three gateways including; Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam.

How to justify a crackdown

27 April 2010

The groundwork has been laid If there is to be a crackdown on the red shirts - using force and with casulaties and multiple arrests - the giovernment has now set out the justification for doing so.

The Bangkok Post reports, without any questioning, that the Centre for the Resolution to Emergency Situations claims to have uncovered a plot to overthrow the monarchy.

The CRES said the network behind the plot included key leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, members of the Puea Thai Party and former banned politicians, academics and hosts of community radio programmes.

There is absolutely no evidence produced to support any of these claims.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday the CRES had put together the pieces of the “political jigsaw”. He said people involved in the network could face legal action.

The prime minister and the armed forces have long suspected the UDD rally had a higher purpose than just forcing a dissolution of the House of Representatives.

CRES spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd said the demonstration, which started in mid-March, had attacked the higher institution through UDD leaders and the red shirts’ media.

The CRES yesterday ordered red shirt protesters to walk away from road blockades or face a crackdown by a joint police-military operation.

UDD leaders are concerned more police and soldiers are part of the government’s plan to launch another effort to clamp down on the demonstrators at Ratchaprasong intersection.

The capital was rocked by grenade attacks in front of the house of Chart Thai Pattana Party chief adviser Banharn Silpa-archa on Sunday night and a bomb threats in front of Chulalongkorn Hospital and a car showroom.

UDD protesters yesterday also gathered in Pathum Thani, Saraburi, Chachoengsao, Phitsanulok and Ayutthaya.

Will Thailand's Democrats survive?

26 April 2010

Thailand's democrats are under threat from all sides. The red shirts have taken over the heart of commercial Bangkok and are calling for the dissolution of the current government.

In the meantime Thailand's Election Commission today submitted a petition to the Constitution Court seeking to dissolve the Democrat Party in connection with the alleged misuse of the 29 million baht political development fund, said EC deputy secretary-general Thanis Sriprathes.

The 8,000-page petition (this was the Bangkok Post figure - 8,000 pages !) was accompanied by the individual judgment on the case from each of the five election commissioners.

The Democrat Party's proposed dissolution is based on two allegations.

The first involves the 29 million baht political development fund allocated by the EC. The party is alleged to have misused it.

The second case concerns an allegation that the party has unlawfully received a donation of 258 million baht from TPI Polene, a listed company, in violation of the Political Party Act.

Mr Thanis said the petition on the 258 million baht donation case, which also recommends dissolution of the Democrat Party, was being drafted and expected to be forwarded to the Office of the Attorney General in early May.

History indicates that some politicians may get a five year ban - and the party will be disbanded - only to re-unite under another banner - the Thai People's Democratic Party or something similar !
 

Stand-off in Bangkok

26 April 2010 From The Economist online

"It took several anxious days, and a lethal grenade attack, for Thailand’s warring sides to reach a tentative peace deal. Its unravelling was swift and disheartening, and brings Thailand back to the brink of further unrest. On April 23rd, red-shirt protesters, who are camped out on mass in Bangkok’s shopping hub, revised their demand for snap elections, saying a three-month timetable was acceptable. Peace seemed to have broken out, to the relief of residents braced for another violent showdown between security forces and the red shirts, whose rallies attract tens of thousands.

But the next day the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, shot down the peace plan. He said he would not be forced into dissolving parliament, which is the rallying cry of the red shirts’ six-week-long protest in the capital. In a taped interview broadcast on April 25th, Mr. Abhisit, held out little hope of a compromise. He said his government was working to retake the streets from the demonstrators, without giving details, and said his solution “may not please everyone”. By his side, in a show of unity, was the head of the army, General Anupong Paochinda, who has been resisting pressure from government and military hawks to crack down hard. He wants a political compromise to end the crisis. He may not get one.

The seizure of Bangkok’s tourist and shopping hub is choking its economic recovery. Several luxury hotels and malls have been closed for weeks. Companies are pulling out expatriate staff. A grenade attack on April 22nd against a crowd of pro-government protesters that killed one person and injured dozens more has alarmed business people. Many foreign governments promptly warned their citizens against non-essential travel to Bangkok.

But a bloody attack on a sprawling fortified encampment could deal an even worst blow to Thailand’s reputation for stability. Few believe that a crackdown would silence the calls for political change. Indeed, it may inflame a movement that has the support of working-class and rural Thais who already feel cheated by Bangkok’s royalist elite and its political wing. Inside the red-shirts’ squalid bamboo-fenced encampment, televisions screen bloody footage of the Apr 10th clashes with security forces that left 25 dead and over 800 injured.

Protests in the northeast, a stronghold of the ousted former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, a hero to many red shirts, are starting to spread. Over the past week, protesters have blocked a train carrying military troops and equipment, and obstructed police units on their way to the capital. Power lines and a fuel storage tank have also been targeted by unknown bombers, whose sabotage thankfully failed. After four years of political upheaval, Thai newspapers fret over the risk of all-out civil strife.

The military could still be used to disperse protesters. By offering no clear alternatives to the scotched peace deal, Mr. Abhisit may be leaning that way, urged on by royalist backers who see no need for a truce. He is right to argue that holding another election will not solve Thailand’s protracted crisis. There is also risk that raising a mob to force an election becomes an accepted part of the political process. In 2008, Mr. Abhisit was the beneficiary of a yellow-shirted revolt that closed Bangkok’s international airports. Now he findshimself isolated in his own party and increasingly out of his depth. “I don’t know what is keeping him there,” muses a Western diplomat.

The danger for Thailand is that there are people on both sides who want to escalate the crisis. Armed gunmen with military weapons showed up on April 10th to aid the red shirts, who profess nonviolence. One reason why the military is hesitating is that it knows resistance would greet any move into the red-shirt camp. In his joint appearance with Mr. Abhisit, Geneneral Anupong admitted that some of his troops are conspiring with the red shirts. Some active officers, and other retired soldiers, may have fought alongside the protesters, he said. Still, he added, the military is unified and supporting the government. This was not very comforting. Meanwhile, the country waits to see who makes the first move."

flydubai adds Latakia

26 April 2010

flydubai, Dubai’s first low cost airline will begin flights to the Syrian city, Latakia, in June. This is an interesting new destination for regional tourism and trade.

Latakia will be flydubai’s third Syrian destination, after Damascus and Aleppo, and is the fifth new route to be announced by the airline this month.

The four weekly service will begin on Sunday, June 20 and will take the airline’s network to 18 destinations. Prices for Latakia will start from AED 350 for one way fare including all taxes and charges and one piece of hand luggage.

Ghaith Al Ghaith, flydubai’s CEO said: “Adding Latakia to our existing routes of Damascus and Aleppo, demonstrates the importance of Syria as a key destination to flydubai. Thanks to flydubai, Dubai’s growing Syrian expatriate population and the 500,000-strong community in Latakia now have even better access to quality, safe and low-cost air travel.”

Latakia is Syria’s busiest and most modern seaport located to the south west of the urban centre of Aleppo and has been an important trading and agricultural hub since ancient times, known for its tobacco, cotton and fruit exports.

The city is also increasingly gaining a reputation as a first-class tourism destination, thanks to its pristine beaches, picturesque mountains and rich archaeological heritage.

FZ233 to Latakia will depart from Dubai at 1130hrs and land at 1400hrs local time. FZ234 returns at 1510hrs local time and reaches Dubai at 1930hrs.

It is worth noting that flydubai still does not have flying rights to India - where the second and third level cities must have been a key part of its original business plan. The airline has been creative in finding new destinations in the Gulf region.

Its just not cricket !

26 April 2010

What would Douglas Jardine have made of this - 20/20 IPL cricket with cheerleader squads - who incidentally don't look very Indian!

India's press on the EK Cochin incident

26 April 2010

Reports and passenger comments in the Indian media are very different from the official versions of yesterday's turbulence incident on EK 530 from Dubai to Cochin.

The Hindu

"Passengers not wearing their seatbelts were hurled around and the cabin baggage fell. As the aircraft bounced back from the sudden plunge, they hit the jet's ceiling and window panels before crashing back to their seats. The plane's interiors too were damaged. As the plane shook violently, oxygen masks dropped, while some passengers even slammed into the luggage bins, said one passenger.

“It was a total free fall. People were startled and suddenly, I could hear every one screaming and crying and I thought the plane was going to crash,” recalled Shibi, who was on the flight with his wife and two-year-old daughter.

“There was no warning to wear the seatbelt. Even the air-hostesses ran around panic-stricken. There were shrieks all around. We breathed easy only when the plane regained it’s balance,’’ said Elsie, who works as a tailor in Kuwait

“Everything happened even before we could realise it. I thought we were going right into the sea below,’’ said Ibrahim, another passenger, adding that immediately after the rocking the passengers helped each other. “After a while, a crew member gave me some ice cubes to hold against a wound, but the bleeding wouldn’t stop. When the aircraft finally touched down safely, everyone clapped,’’ Elsie said.

Indian Express

Shiby M Thambi, “All of a sudden, we felt the flight going down, severely jerking and tilting sideways. As the seatbelts were not fastened, most of the passengers were thrown out of their seats. Due to the impact, many banged their heads on the ceiling. Many children slipped from the lap of their parents, and some of them fell into the aisle. The ceiling came of in parts due to the impact,” Thambi said. “Everything was over within a minute. No one had any idea what was happening.”

“There was no suggestion to fasten the seatbelt. Soon after the flight regained normalcy, the pilot apologised for the inconvenience. He told us the flight got into an air pocket due to bad weather.”

Another passenger, Elsy Antony, who cut her eyebrow, said emergency medical care was found lacking. “A broken piece of ceiling pierced my eyebrow. All that the crew did was to supply some ice blocks and towels. Even that aid came very late.”

The flight’s return journey has been cancelled. “The aircraft has been grounded for an extensive air worthiness and air safety check. We expect the report to be submitted in a week’s time by the regulator pending which necessary action would be taken,” said a senior Civil Aviation Ministry official. The grounded aircraft will leave only after it receives certification from the DGCA, added the ministry spokesperson.

Hindustan Times

Heavily bandaged, some passengers broke down on their arrival. “It was a nightmare. For about five minutes, the plane tilted dangerously, throwing passengers upside down. Some of them started shouting for help. Even crew members were frightened,” said injured passenger Elssy George, adding that when the plane landed safely many passengers praised the pilot’s presence of mind.

Business Standard

Passengers suffered anxious moments when their aircraft had a free fall of almost 18,500 feet in an air pocket. The plane hit an air pocket during flight, and dropped from a height of 20,000 to 1,500 feet.

Sify.com

A passenger, who was onboard the Emirates flight which fell almost 15,000 feet in an air pocket Sunday morning, said he was shocked at 'seeing death from close quarters'.

'Some of the passengers were shouting and crying for help. And for three minutes no one knew what was happening. Many were thrown out of their seats, some had their heads hitting the roof of the aircraft. A child was thrown out of the seat. We felt that everything was coming to an end,' a relieved Elsy told reporters here.

He said he was 'shocked at seeing death from close quarters'.

NDTV

This is how one of the passengers recollected the ordeal. "Inside the aircraft everything fell off. It was a harrowing experience. We were terrified. For a moment we thought it was our end. My wife sustained head injury and got three stitches. Our baby was thrown off on the floor. Several passengers sustained injuries. Everyone was screaming and crying as interiors, panels fell off, wires came off," says Shibhin, one of the passengers on board the flight.

There are conflicting reports about the altitude at which the aircraft was cruising at the time of hitting the air pocket. Initial reports suggested the aircraft was flying at 20,000 ft and descended to 2000 feet. However, Emirates authorities have denied this, saying the aircraft was at 35,000 ft and had descended only 200 feet.

Red shirt occupied Bangkok

25 April 2010

If you are heading to Bangkok this map is useful. The reds have built their fortress at the centre of tourist Bangkok

MBK mall is open. Siam Discovery, Siam Center and Siam Paragon are all closed. Peninsular is closed. Central World is closed. Central Chitlom opens with shortened hours.

Among hotels closed are the Grand Hyatt Erewan and the Four Seasons - formerly the Regent.

The Erewan Shrine is cut off to all except the red shirts.

The BTS has been operating along the Sukhumvit line only Some days there is partial operation on the line to Saphan Taksin but only in the area around Sathorn Rd and the bridge.

A lot of tourists are still going to see what all the fuss is about and take pictures. You do this at your peril. This part of Bangkok is not the land of smiles. It remains a tinderbox waiting to explode and if it does the violence will be random. You do not want to be caught up in it.

Emirates incident near Cochin

25 April 2010

The difference in the details of today's Emirates incident near Cochin tells you a lot about how corporate PR, fear of flying, and the ability of people to make up, or exaggerate, a story for effect or and I am cautious about saying this but it was a flight to India, in order to claim for some sort of compensation or freebie from the airline.

The passengers of an Emirates flight from Dubai to Cochin in Kerala (India) had a worrying flight; but it is unclear exactly what happened.

The Indian media says that the aircraft fell almost 15,000 feet in an air pocket on approach to Cochin. The airport official said the incident took place when the aircraft fell sharply from 20,000 feet to 5,000 feet before the pilot could bring it back under control.

NDTV in India - always looking for a crisis out of a non-event came up with this marvelous version of the story:

"An Emirates flight flying over Goa averted tragedy on Sunday, and landed safely in Kochi. The Boeing 777 - flying from Dubai to Kochi with 350 passengers on board - dropped from a height of 20,000 to 1,500 feet, possibly due to turbulence caused by rains in the Goa-Kerala region. Miraculously, the pilot was able to regain control before impact - after dropping 18,500 feet."

Emirates Airlines officials issued a statement the flight from Dubai to Kerala “encountered a short period of heavy turbulence while cruising at 35,000 feet”. The Dubai-based airline said the aircraft experienced a 200-foot descent in altitude. Emirates said the fasten seatbelt sign was put on prior to the turbulence. Though given it ws an India flight there were probably passengers roaming throughout the cabin !

200 feet or 18,000 feet? An air pocket (clear air turbulence does not appear on the weather radar) or just run of the mill turbulence. Think I will go with the 200 feet version!

The Indian press said that the incident took place about 60 miles from Kochi when the aircraft descended steeply in an air pocket. A passenger Annie Thomas is quoted, who was with her husband onboard the flight, said the aircraft shook violently when it abruptly descended in the air pocket. "My husband's head almost hit the roof. Many passengers suffered bruises. I could see a lot of passengers being taken out on wheelchairs," she said.

After the plane landed at the airport in Cochin a team of doctors examined all those passengers who suffered shock and bruises. The plane must have suffered some damage as the return flight is now at 20.05 rather then the schedules 10.30.
 

The staying power of Thailand's red-shirts
24 April 2010 - Rachel Harvey BBC News, Bangkok

Six weeks into their protest, Thailand's anti-government movement is clashing violently with the police and soldiers. While the government refuses to back down - and the red-shirts have plenty of stamina - the bloodshed looks set to continue.

The longer something goes on, the more you get used to it.

When that something is a prolonged political protest in the heart of the city in which you live and work, that can be dangerous.

Of course, I'm a journalist, so it is partly self-inflicted. But the anti-government demonstrations in Bangkok have dominated my days for six long weeks.

Each morning, on my way to the office, I check in on the protesters' camp, in an upmarket shopping and hotel district.

On several evenings, on my way home, I've shared a train carriage with some of those same protesters.

“ Ever since that bloodshed, Bangkok has been in a state of almost perpetual anxiety ”

I remember one woman, who was wearing the uniform of the office worker - smart skirt, high heels and make-up - but in her open shoulder bag, a neatly folded red T-shirt revealed her true allegiance.

That has been a striking feature of the red-shirt movement - the variety of people it has attracted.

For months, the government and much of the media portrayed the red-shirts as simple country folk, deluded in their loyalty to Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, who had been accused of corruption.

One newspaper cartoon depicted the demonstrators as water buffalo - a highly derogatory comparison implying rural ignorance.

But the thing about water buffalo, as any South East Asian farmer will tell you, is that they have huge amounts of stamina.

So it's proved with the red-shirts.

Die-hard support

Take Tongsi for instance. I first met her back in mid-March, as she was preparing to make the long trek from her home in the northeast to join the Bangkok rally.

She's a die-hard supporter of Mr Thaksin, who was ousted in a bloodless coup in 2006.

Tongsi has neither forgiven nor forgotten that perceived wrong.

When she started talking to me about it, sitting on the concrete floor of the two-room house she shares with her husband, she had tears rolling down her face.

"Thaksin was the first politician who ever cared about us," she said.

I lost contact with Tongsi for several weeks - weeks when the protests changed from being good-natured, boisterous affairs into something more provocative.

In the early days, the red-shirts set up a well-organised camp site.

There was free food, portable toilets, massage stations and a large stage from which protest leaders launched fiery tirades against the government, interspersed with folk music played at incredibly high volume.

The demand for fresh elections has remained the same, as have the logistics, but three weeks ago, the protestors moved their main camp from the historic old part of Bangkok to an area known for its expensive shops and five-star hotels.

And the rolling rallies took on a more confrontational tone. On Saturday 10 April they came to a head.

Soldiers and riot police moved in to disperse the protesters by force. The operation degenerated into running street battles.

Mysterious black-clad gunmen appeared on the side of the protesters and the army was forced to retreat.

Twenty five people lost their lives, including Hiro Muramoto, a cameraman with the Reuters news agency.

We were filming in the same place as Hiro in the late afternoon and had been chatting with him during one of the lulls in the fluctuating confrontation. Three hours later he was shot dead.

Live ammunition

Ever since that bloodshed, Bangkok has been in a state of almost perpetual anxiety.

Troops were bought back onto the streets with orders to use live ammunition if necessary to stop the red-shirts advancing on the capital's financial district.

Rumours have been circulating for days that another security crackdown could be imminent.

Where was Tongsi, I wondered. Had she gone back to the safety of her rural home? No, of course she hadn't.

Tongsi and her husband are ensconced on a pavement under a tented awning in the heart of the red-shirt's encampment.

They were caught up in the violence two weeks ago, but only suffered the effects of tear gas.

"I can't believe the government is still refusing our demands," she told me. "I never thought it would take this long."

"After the violence, was it still worth it?" I asked her.

"If it means we get democracy, yes," she said firmly.

It was only later that I realised Tongsi hadn't mentioned Thaksin Shinawatra at all.

Events seem to have rendered her hero, if not irrelevant, than at least a peripheral figure.

The anti-government red-shirt movement has evolved.

The water buffalo are more politically aware - and more in tune with their working class urban comrades - than many had given them credit for.

This has gone way beyond one man.

This has become a bitter battle between the forces of the established status quo and a movement for social reform.

However this current chapter ends, it won't be the end of the story. And that's just something I have to get used to.

Peace-keeping in Pieces

24 April 2010 - Prachatai.org - Harrison George (This is sature folks - though the way things are.....)

It is a hectic scene in the War Room of the Peace-Keeping Operations Command inside the 11th Infantry Regiment base.

On one wall a bank of CCTV screens monitor the red encampment at Ratchaprasong and other strategic spots. On the other side of the room, officials sit before TVs, each showing a free-to-air channel while they monitor that only correct information is being broadcast.

And in a far corner, a group of paramilitaries clean their substantial arsenal of handguns, rifles and sub-machine guns, sharpen their knives and bayonets, and grunt out a litany of patriotic noises, like ‘kill the buffaloes’ and ‘uneducated scum’. No one quite knows who they are or who controls them. They play ‘Nak Phaen Din’ on a loop, but due to all the other noises, it’s at full volume, and in a room full of regular military and police, no one dares tell them to pipe down.

‘Now get this over to the PM’s temporary office pronto. It’s urgent so no stopping for a bowl of noodle on the way.’

‘But, sir, it’s almost lunch time.’

‘It’s barely 11 and the PM’s office is just across the lawn there. You can get something on the way back. And listen, it’s top, top secret so be careful who you give it to, OK?’

‘No problem. Sir.’

‘That’s what you said last time when you handed it to the guy that cleans the toilets and that was the last we saw of it.’

‘Well he was wearing a uniform, so I thought …’

‘Find somebody with pips on their epaulettes or lots of gold braid; they should know what to do with it.’

‘Alright. See you in a bit. Sir.’

‘Whoa, hang on, I forgot something. See that table over there? It has to go to them first. See the sign on the desk where it says “Terrorist Committee”?’

‘We have terrorists in here?’

‘What? No, this is a draft speech. Their job is to make sure the word ‘terrorist’ is added to every statement that comes out of here at the rate of once every two sentences. We can’t leave it to the politicians and spokesmen, they keep forgetting.’

‘OK, so Terrorist Committee table first and then some-high-ranking terrorist in the PM’s office. Got it.’

Lights over the public TV channels start flashing red, waking up some of the officials monitoring them.

‘What’s up?’

‘Sansern’s coming on again.’

‘Again? Is he after an Oscar or something? I don’t know why he doesn’t learn. Every time he opens his mouth he has to backtrack a couple of hours later. Let’s just hope he doesn’t start giving anything away like his secret snipers on the rooftops …’

The TV stations, as with one voice, say ‘… and the Peacekeeping Forces have secret agents mingling among the red shirts. These officers, who are not in uniform, are armed and ready to keep the peace as soon as they feel sufficiently threatened to open fire.’

‘Well that will calm things down no end. What’s that commotion outside?’

‘It’s the M&Ms, sir.’

‘The what?’

‘The multi-coloureds, sir. They’ve heard Sansern, sir, and they want to volunteer for infiltration. They think that military spies will be spotted too easily by their crew-cuts, military boots and proud martial bearing. They say they can do just as good a job shooting red shirts in the back.’

‘I bet they could.’

‘But they do have a couple of conditions, sir.’

‘Go on.’

‘Well, sir, they would prefer not to have to wear red. Not next to the skin, anyway. Some of them say it causes an allergic reaction – sweating, rashes, vomiting and so on. And can they wear masks?’

‘Masks? For the tear gas?’

‘Er, no, sir. For the smell. From the reds, sir. Well, I mean, they’re from upcountry and dark-skinned and some of them keep animals and so on.’

‘And they think they’ll be disguised like that?’

‘Well, sir, they’re terribly keen and if you want to keep our casualty figures down …’

The CCTVs covering the red shirt rally site erupt in loud cheering.

‘What’s happened now?’

‘Well, sir, they’re just reading a top secret document that they say comes from this office. It’s a draft of a speech. It sounds vaguely familiar.’

‘Of course it does. That’s the one I just finished not five minutes ago.’
 

Thailand Update - 24 April 2010

Last night it did seem that there might be an opportunity for compromise on both sides - just maybe there would be a peaceful resolution. The red shirt leaders proposed that PM Abhisit dissolve Parliament in 30 days, with an election taking place 60 days later.

But the Associated Press and the foreign media report that “Thai TV says Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has rejected protesters’ demand he dissolve Parliament in 30 days to end a political crisis that has paralyzed the country.”

Abhisit has made no counter offer. Al Jazeera reports that “Abhisit said that he could not accept the offer because the red shirts ‘use violence and intimidation’. He said: “The 30-day ultimatum is not an issue. The dissolution [of parliament] must be done for the benefit of the entire country, not just for the red shirts, and it must be done at the right time…”.

So the relative peace of last night has been replaced by fear of more violence in the next 48 hours.

*******************************
More worryingly The Bangkok Post reports on an important piece of the approval process being put in place to allow a crackdown on the red shirts. Army chief Anupong Paojinda said previously that he would reject any unlawful order to crackdown on the red shirts. Earlier in the week the Civil Court issued a ruling on the legality of a crackdown that was interpreted in different ways.

Now the Bangkok Post reports that to “erase public doubt, Thailand’s Civil Court today (Saturday) said the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) can indeed disperse anti-government protesters now occupying Bangkok’s prime business district ‘if necessary’, but emphasised that it must be ‘carried out in line with international standards’. Whose international standards?

Further propaganda comes from the government providing “evidence” against red shirts in alleged violent acts. The military have put forward a Thai soap opera actort, Methi Amornwuthikul, who is claimed to be a “prominent red shirt.” Methi was previously in the media for his semi-nude modeling and more recently for swinging punches at a Puea Thai Party campaign worker.

The government has also upped the rhetoric that it is not safe to go to the red shirt held areas of Bangkok. The head of the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) on Friday warned attackers and those behind the plots or involved with what is officially being termed as “terrorism”, that they could face death sentences for their actions against public order and well being.

The DSI also told the Bangkok Post that it is worried it has red shirt sympathisers in its ranks leaking sensitive details of its investigations.

************************************
AFP reports some interesting comments from the Lady in Rangoon. Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said Thailand's political crisis shows that a constitution drawn up by the military can never deliver stability.

Myanmar's military junta, which has ruled for nearly half a century, produced a new constitution as part of a "road map to democracy" which includes elections due to be held later this year.

The election plans have been widely criticised and subject to a boycott by Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), which would have had to expel its leader if it wanted to take part.

NLD spokesman Nyan Win said that in a meeting Saturday with Suu Kyi, she discussed the situation in Thailand, which has been wracked by crises since a 2006 coup ejected Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

"A new government coming to power under a constitution drawn up by the military will never be stable," he cited her as saying.

"We do not need to see very far. We just see Thailand," she said. "Thaksin was an elected person. The military seized the power from an elected person. The constitution was drawn up by the military," she said.

"After that, what happened with the first (government)? It was not stable," she said of the short-lived administration that followed the coup.

"This was a result of the constitution being written by the military."

Nyan Win said Suu Kyi was not giving an opinion on the rights and wrongs of the conflict in Thailand, where red-shirted campaigners largely loyal to Thaksin are calling for the ouster of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Abhisit's army-backed administration was appointed in a parliamentary vote after a court ruling ousted Thaksin's allies.

Now I guess we sit and wait for the Lady to be accused of being on Thaksin's payroll !

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Two recurring themes - one is how many people simply accept the information that they get from thai television and media without questions and two, how many people really do not care. Their only concern is that their favourite shopping malls are closed down. This is about the future of their country; and people need to care. As the Economist wrote : "In fact, the protesters are deadly serious about challenging the establishment’s self-appointed right to continue running the country."

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Rumours continue that Thaksin is not well. He has not been seen for some time and has stopped sending twitter messages. I wonder?

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Just a thought on how well organised the red shirts are. They are in this for the long haul. There is free food, portable toilets, massage stations, beddin, medical support; even entertainment.

And the massive volume of used tyres and bamboo poles used to build their barricades. These guys know what they are doing.

Bloody shirts in the City of Angels

24 April 2010  The Economist

After a riot on April 10th which left 23 Thais dead, a tense stand-off has ensued on the streets of Bangkok, paralysed for the past several weeks by red-shirted anti-government protesters. This week the red shirts, occupying Bangkok’s main shopping district, abandoned plans to move on the financial district when it learnt that the army had got there first and threatened to shoot them. The prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, who has already met the protest leaders once, insists from the barracks in which he has taken refuge that he remains open to negotiation. The army chief, Anupong Paochinda, whom Mr Abhisit has just put in charge of national security, says he wants a political solution and plans no further crackdowns. In the land of smiles, Thais love to point out their peaceful nature.

Can further bloodshed be averted? Two factors suggest not. First, in Thailand violence is more embedded than most care to admit. Second, the establishment fronted by Mr Abhisit and backed by an ailing king and his courtiers misunderstands the red shirts whom they see as an unwashed rabble under the sway of Thaksin Shinawatra, an exiled former prime minister. In fact, the protesters are deadly serious about challenging the establishment’s self-appointed right to continue running the country.

The violence first. The shootings on April 10th, in which five soldiers and 18 protesters died, raised the spectre of previous military slaughters of innocents, which also happened in 1973, 1976 and 1992. True, the army has shown restraint this time. It first applied modern crowd-control techniques—water cannon, tear gas, rubber bullets. But the crowds refused to disperse. Worse, the army was caught after dark in civilian-filled streets, which smart commanders know to be a recipe for disaster. Soldiers fired into the crowds, in self-defence (they said) against armed “terrorists”. Then they fled for their lives, abandoning a column of armoured personnel carriers. Humiliated, junior officers want revenge.

Violence is not a military monopoly. Thailand can be a vicious place. Crime and vigilante justice are rampant, hitmen are cheap, militias abound and a Muslim insurgency rumbles on in the south. Under Mr Thaksin, extrajudicial squads killed thousands of suspected drug-pushers and other criminals.

From the start, the red shirts have had a thuggish element. Most reds are disciplined, conscious that a good image counts for much. But a minority has long carried sticks and knives and lobbed petrol bombs. Then, on April 10th, mysterious “men in black” entered the fray, picking off army commanders with high-powered rifles. Some Thais blame an unknown “third hand” that wants to stir up trouble. Others claim the men are in Mr Thaksin’s pay. Or perhaps the hot-heads called for back-up against the army and got it. Yet in the red narrative soldiers are the bad guys for using live rounds on unarmed protesters. Now the movement has its martyrs, their faces plastered on posters and footage of their deaths passed around on DVDs.

Both army and protesters, then, have their grievances. And now, after months away, the yellow shirts are back. These are the pro-establishment People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) whose own minority of black-clad guards once used guns and explosives against the police and which stockpiled golf clubs as weapons—nicely reflecting the group’s milieu. On April 18th leaders of the PAD called for martial law and gave the government a week to end the protests or, they said, they would order their own people back on to the streets. All this amounts to one big reason to believe peace will have to wait.

The stubborn delusions of the political elite provide the second reason. In 2006 the elite ousted Mr Thaksin, who for all his flaws was popularly elected, in a military-backed coup. In 2008 it ousted a popularly elected government loyal to Mr Thaksin. The red-shirt movement was born out of these acts.

Mr Abhisit is typical of the elite in his frustration with the red shirts. How, he asks, can these people, drawn chiefly from the lower parts of society, allow a billionaire (of all people) to whip up class divisions? “Thaksin”, he says, “should not speak in a way that could create hatred between rich and poor. Society would be fine as long as people could do their jobs…”

Accept your station in life: Thailand’s prime minister, an old Etonian, is not the only one to admire that sentiment. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, now in his fumbling twilight, admires what he calls Thailand’s “sufficiency economy”. In essence, the village poor must take their place along with everyone else in a perfect hierarchy topped by the king’s benevolent patronage. The political corollary might be dubbed a “sufficiency democracy”: rule by a self-appointed aristocracy claiming to protect the monarchy while amassing wealth and privilege.

Bringing the ceremonial back
In a brilliant subversion of a word that these days has insulting connotations, red shirts now call themselves “prai”, literally, “commoner”, much as marginalised American blacks pushed back by co-opting the insult “nigger”. But Thailand no longer has the great, deferential, unwashed mass on whom the old political system rested. As one commentator puts it, a typical red-shirt villager probably has a secondary education, a pick-up truck and a healthy scepticism of Bangkok officials. Mr Thaksin’s policies of universal health care, microcredit and so on, contributed to the change. But the red-shirt movement, for all that it remains inchoate, has outgrown Mr Thaksin.

This has turned into a revolution of rising expectations. And the chief expectation, as Federico Ferrara, an expert on Thailand, puts it, is to put the aristocracy back into the more ceremonial role it once occupied. Alas, mere ceremony seems a long way away from the tense and bloodied streets of today’s Bangkok.
 

LibDem opening statement

22 April 2010

Nick Clegg's opening statement at tonight's debate:

"I am so proud of the values that have made our country great: human rights, democracy, the rule of law. But the sad truth is that in recent years our governments, under the two old parties, have let those values down. We shouldn't have sent our troops into harm's way without the right equipment and decent pay. We shouldn't be facing allegations that we were complicit in torture. We shouldn't have invaded Iraq. I want us to lead in the world. I want us to lead in Europe, not just complain from the sidelines. I want us to lead in creating a world free of nuclear weapons. And I want us to lead on the greatest challenge we all face, climate change. My family knows what British values really mean. My mother was freed by British troops from a prisoner of war camp. If we do things differently we can once again be proud of the great role we can play as a force for good in the world."

Silom grenades

22 April 2010

We are so far away from peace in Thailand.

The batter front seems to have moved down the road from outside the Hyatt and Gaysorn Plaza to the junction at Rama IV and Silom Road, where the venerable Dusit Thani hotel is The battleground continues down Silom Road past the Silom center and Silom Complex to Saladaeng BTS and even to Patpong.

This is my part of Bangkok I lived here for three years - staying on Saladaeng Soi 1 and working out of the Abdulrahim building on Rama IV and from the Silom Center. Au Bon Pain at the junction was our daily coffee shop. I still get recognised and happily greeted when I go back there three years later.

Now the junction is home of the red shirt barricades. It is also home to the so called multi-coloured shirts. Sorry but this is mainly the yellow shirts. Sure there are many that want peace But people who want peace do not join riots to hurl weapons at fellow Thais.

Tonight there were grenades launched at Saladaeng BTS that apparently damaged the roof. The Deputy PM says that there are 3 fatalities and at least 80 injured. He also says that the rockets were launched from behind the red shirts barricade He offers no proof, no evidence.

The hatred on both sides is frightening. I have no idea where this is leading to. We are already at a state of emergency. How far away are we from martial law and a curfew?

I want to see the scenes for myself. I want to see what they have done to my part of Bangkok. But all the sensible advice is that non-journalists must for their own safety stay away from the danger zones now. The violence is too random, nobody knows who is shooting or firing weapons, and the shooters don't care.

Sharjah police conduct door to door hunt for unwed couples

22nd April 2010

The National in Abu Dhabi is reporting a new campaign across Sharjah. Police say they will initially target more densely populated residential areas before spreading the net to include the whole emirate.

Police are knocking on doors and demanding to see evidence that couples under the same roof are married.

Brig Musa al Naqbi, the head of Sharjah Police CID, said yesterday: “This campaign is continuing throughout Sharjah because women and men having children outside wedlock is not allowed in the UAE, as well as being against Islam.”

Couples found to be breaking the law will be referred to public prosecutors, and lawyers say they could technically face lashes under the emirate’s strict Sharia law.

Salah Mabrouk, a Dubai based lawyer noted that “In Sharia law the punishment for a fornicator is different to one of an adulterer, a fornicator is lashed 100 lashes while an adulterer is stoned to death.” However, Mr Mabrouk said it was more likely that offenders would face a prison term of less than a year, followed by deportation if they were expatriates.

Under federal law, cohabiting couples face two possible sets of charges depending on their circumstances, according to Jouslin Khairallah, another Dubai-based lawyer whose case load often takes her to Sharjah.

“If you have a flat with a man living in one room and a woman living in another, they would immediately face an unlawful residency charge,” she said.

However, if it could be proved that the couple were sharing a room, they could be charged under "crimes of honour" legislation that carries a heavier sentence of up to three years in jail.
 

Manning the Bangkok Barricades

22 April 2010 Pictures - Getty/AFP/Reuters - Lyrics - Les Miserables.

"They laugh at me, these fellows, just because I am small. They laugh at me because I'm not a hundred feet tall.
I tell 'em there's a lot to learn down here on the ground. The world is big but lil' people turn it around."

"Will you join in our crusade? who will be strong and stand with me? somewhere beyond the barricade is there a world you long to see?
Do you hear the people sing? say, do you hear the distant drums? it is the future that they bring when tomorrow comes!"

Flashpoint Silom
22 April 2010
Nirmal Ghosh - Straits Times

1am, Thursday : I got to Sala Daeng yesterday (Wed) afternoon, and made my way to the Au Bon Pain cafe right next to the Dusit Thani hotel, at the corner of the intersection across from the Red Shirt barricades next to Lumpini Park.

A couple of hundred pro-government demonstrators were gathered on the sidewalk outside waving Thai flags and yelling at the Red Shirts. There were police making sure they stayed clear of the road to let traffic through. More police were lined up at the side gate to the Dusit. But passions seemed high on the part of the flag-waving pro-government crowd, and their numbers were steadily growing. Sensing the mood, I tweeted that Sala Daeng was an accident waiting to happen.

Later, I watched it unfold. There was little satisfaction in having been right.

I had made a round of the Red Shirt barricades by then. Behind the bristling bamboo and car tyre barricade some four to five metres high, the Red Shirts were roaming around with bamboo staves, some of them sharpened. One seemed to have arrows. Others seemed to be making slingshots.

I was told by journalist friends that they had chilli powder mixtures as well though I didn’t see any. I didn’t see any firearms. At one point a big BMW pulled up and reversed behind the barricade and a uniformed chauffeur got out, opened the boot and started unloading food. Another time, a pickup truck came by and Red Shirts on the truck hurled big plastic bags full of styrofoam-packed food high into the barricade where they were grabbed by eager hands and distributed. Many motorists wound down windows as they passed and cheered the Red Shirts.

I made my way back to the other side of the street and hunkered down in the Au Bon Pain and wrote my first report while the yelling outside grew more and more hysterical. Then the cafe finally decided to close early, and I shifted to the business centre at the Dusit and wrote my second report. When I was done, around 8.30pm, I went back out and joined other journalists watching the drama unfold.

The mood among the pro-government crowd became more and more ragged, with a couple of passing red-shirted taxi drivers having their cabs bashed. But around 10pm, the mood appeared to settle as many people left. I was on the point of heading home when some rowdy men began to get out of hand, running out into the intersection threateningly.

I saw the precise moment when the riot started. At around 11pm, some of the pro-government demonstrators were running out into the intersection taunting the Reds, and then one finally let fly with a large stone. That of course was the signal for a barrage of stones and bottles from the pro-government mob.

Only about 20 or so were involved, but it was enough to create tremendous chaos. Glass shattered on the street and rocks cracked and bounced as they went for the Reds – who retaliated with rocks and slingshots of their own but held their line and did not come charging out.

Meanwhile cross-traffic was still flowing, crunching over the rocks and broken glass. I wonder if some of the cars were hit as they crossed between the battling sides.

The Reds vastly outnumbered the pro-government protestors, but held their ground. The pro-government men periodically surged out into the intersection to throw missiles at the barricades. Some hung back, crouching in the shrubbery on the verge, aiming carefully and letting loose with slingshots – deadly when fired with small ball bearings or marbles.

All the while, police deployed on the ground, and soldiers on the pedestrian overpass above, did absolutely nothing to stop or separate the two sides. In fact the police even moved one of their trucks out of the way of the rampaging pro-government men.

A Thai man dressed in a white shirt spoke to me as we took cover behind a wall, with rocks flying around us. "What do you think Thais should do?" he asked me. It was a difficult question. I thought for a moment and said "Sit down and talk about the issues".

He looked sad and then told me that "Thais only learn when many people are killed".

Seconds later, a large Thai man in ordinary clothing translated a sign lying on the sidewalk which proclaimed that Red Shirts were goons in the pay of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Then he put his arm around me and led me away and whispered in my ear "I am Red Shirt".

He said he was a taxi drover, and the pro-government men were from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the formerly yellow-clad right-wing group that closed down three airports in 2008 to paralyse the pro-Thaksin government of the time, paving the way for its fall which eventually came through a court decision to disband it because one of its executives had cheated in the last election. That paved the way for the Democrat Party to take power.

It is obvious to independent observers that the so-called "no colour" or "multi-colour" crowds that have emerged lately, are largely the PAD in a different form. They have been urging the government to crack down on the Red Shirts of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), and have even threatened to do it themselves if the government and army did not.

They certainly tried at Sala Daeng, though not in force. But the Reds were fairly disciplined and thankfully the riot did not escalate into a full-blown fight. At least twice, the Red Shirts fired firecrackers at the pro-government men who ran helter skelter, but returned to pelt them with stones. The men were banging paving stones on the hard concrete to break them into smaller pieces. One young man ran past me with a sack full of empty bottles, heading for the fight.

At one point a foreigner who appeared to be a tourist, wearing black clothes but with a red armband, was roughed up by the pro-government men, but some among them got him away. That was at around 1145pm and seemed to trigger the police into action.

They formed a double line at the top of the road facing the pro-government crowd, which included some women who were hurling rocks and bottles as much as the men. The arrival of the police seemed to embolden them and they started screaming abuses at the Reds – insulting Thai terms like "hia" – monitor lizard – and "khwai" – buffalo, a common insult used by a certain section of the Bangkokian middle classes against rural people from the north-east, where most of the Reds are from.

The police then turned around and faced towards the Reds, which came as a bit of a surprise. But two big police trucks finally showed up then and parked right in front of the police lines, and then the violence seemed to peter out a bit.

The interesting part of the evening was that the police and soldiers did nothing to stop the pro-government crowd, which incidentally was also, like the Reds, in violation of the Emergency Decree which prohibits assembly of more than five people. Yet they were allowed to assemble and yell at the Reds in a gradual escalation all afternoon, which finally exploded at night with the police and soldiers simply looking on.

Sala Daeng was and could be the flashpoint, which will see Thais battling Thais in this divided country that appears to many, to be sliding into a civil war. The right-wingers say they are fighting for the nation and the King. The Red Shirts – from the same nation – say they are fighting for their democratic right to have an election and have the results accepted and respected. The right-wingers despise and denigrate them as ignorant rabble seduced by Thaksin's money.

Someone tweeted me in the middle of all this, to say that "This is straight out of the 1976 playbook. Get goons to do the dirty work and wash your hands of it".

The year 1976 was a dreadful one in which mobs egged on by right-wing rabble-rousers launched into a horrible massacre at Thammasat University, in which leftist students were hanged and beaten and shot to death.

Thais say their nation has never been so divided as it today. The rage on either side is palpable. Families and friends and couples have been torn by it. Red Shirts kick and stamp on pictures of Privy Council president general Prem Tinsulanonda, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, and army chief general Anupong Paochinda, and scrawl obscene and insulting graffiti against them. Pro-government right-wing elements heckle and attack Red Shirts and kick and smash their cars and shout "Ai! Khwai!" as they pass.

A people versus people bloodbath may be part of the playbook, forcing the army to wade in. But times are different now from 1976, and there is no telling what the consequences may be.

April 10 was a signal of just how bad things can become. And they could get a lot worse unless there is some political compromise at the top. The window for such a compromise, however, is closing fast.

In today’s The Nation, Supalak Ganjanakhundee wrote: "Thais appear to be keen on expanding the ongoing conflict instead of containing it, with many different colour-coded groups emerging to confront the Red-Shirt protesters. Such confrontation would only orchestrate violence, if not a civil war."

It is worth quoting Supalak further, because he explains the echo of 1976.

"On Tuesday" he wrote, "an unknown group of people put up stickers on Silom Road saying that the Red-Shirt group wanted a new Thailand with Thaksin as president. A move like this suggests that the right wing and elitist forces are employing old tactics to label the opponents as anti-monarchists."

‘’On October 6, 1976, student activists in Thammasat University were massacred just because they were accused of being anti-monarchists.

"The stickers on Silom Road prompted an immediate denial from Thaksin, with the Red-Shirt leaders declaring on Tuesday that it was a dirty political game. They know the power of anti-monarchy accusations.

"If Abhisit and his government are gentle and fair enough, they should be able to limit the conflict and stop a third hand from using this sensitive issue to make things worse.

"Calling the protesters terrorists and turning a normal political protest into a national security issue and a threat to the revered institution, is uncivilised and unfair. Besides, such tactics will only make the problem more complicated and difficult to resolve," concluded Supalak.

 

Thai elite in denial over new Thailand

21 April 2010 - The New Straits Times - Sin-Ming Shaw

"Thailand’s poor have decided that docility is a thing of the past. They are angry and frustrated by the status quo and are clamouring for change

In other prosperous democracies, the middle class provides the glue that holds society together. In Thailand, by contrast, the bourgeoisie, centred in Bangkok, is barely emerging as a social and political force.

Instead, for a half-century, an unspoken social contract among four broad groups has held Thailand together: the “Palace” (a euphemism used here to avoid violating draconian lèse majesté laws); big business, the custodian of economic growth; the military, which ensures, first and foremost, the sanctity of the Palace and the moral values it represents; and the common people, mostly rural and urban poor, who accept the rule of the other three estates.

Thailand’s national mythology is that it is a happy Buddhist country; a “land of smiles” bound together by compassion and harmony under the benevolent grace and blessings of the Palace and the generosity of big business. The less fortunate classes are docile, content to accept their subservient roles and satisfied with the social welfare, no matter how skimpy, provided by their betters.

The poor and the military hold the Palace in genuine reverence. Palace staff and people in the countryside kneel before the monarchy not merely as a matter of protocol, but out of genuine love and respect. Forbes magazine ranked the Thai monarchy last yearas the richest of all the world’s royals, putting its net worth at US$30 billion (RM100 billion) — a figure that locals consider too low. That royal wealth necessarily entails substantial investments in and with Thai big business in all sectors of the economy.

Thailand’s blue-chip firms gain much from direct involvement with the Palace and from social proximity to it. One Hong Kong scion, whose wife is from an elite Thai family, estimates that perhaps 20 families control most of Thai business.


The Thai military is constitutionally subordinate to civilian leadership, but in reality it owes its allegiance to the Palace. In the current crisis, army generals have told the public that they are reluctant to use force, a position that was not theirs to take.

How long this inactivity will last is anyone’s guess. Mobs wearing red shirts to symbolise their loyalty to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra are now camped out in two major commercial areas, paralysing a large part of the local economy. They demand that the government dissolve the current legislature immediately, and that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva resign because he was never elected and is viewed as a front man for the traditional anti-Thaksin monied groups.

Many believe that the current crisis will pass, and that Thailand will revert to its historical harmony among the four groups. But this view ignores the country’s new political dynamics.

First and foremost, Thailand’s lower classes have decided that docility is a thing of the past. They are angry and frustrated by the status quo. Save for the handouts they got under Thaksin, they benefited little from the economic growth of the past three decades. The vast gap between the urban rich and the rest has grown worse over the years, with no discernible “trickle-down” effect. Even in the prime commercial districts and chic neighbourhoods of Bangkok, the nation’s richest city, a short walk reveals miles of cracked pavements, piles of uncollected garbage, and rats scurrying freely. Such wrenching sights are typically accompanied by the pungent odour of a sewage system that is more a problem than a solution, especially during the rainy season.

The sight of run-down physical infrastructure, punctuated by super-modern shopping malls with global consumer brand names well beyond the purchasing power of most citizens, is not what you would expect in an economy once described as a potential Asian Dragon.

The wealthy dwell in air-conditioned houses, travel in chauffeur-driven cars and shop in luxury malls, apparently oblivious to how the rest of the country lives. Poor rural families see too many of their children become prostitutes in order to survive.

The poor view the coup against Thaksin in 2006, and the later disbanding of his party, as revenge by the traditional elites who wanted the old ways back, and who would get what they wanted by force as they could no longer get it through the ballot box. It is a view that is not entirely wrong.

In late 2008, anti-Thaksin mobs wearing yellow shirts and led by prominent business figures occupied Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport with impunity, seeking to annul the result of a general election in which pro-Thaksin forces gained power, despite Thaksin’s exile overseas. Yellow is the colour of Thai royalty, and the Palace was believed to be sympathetic to the mobs.

Now Thaksin loyalists — the “Red Shirts” — are doing much the same, demanding change through mob behaviour. They believe that they, too, are entitled to act with impunity. The Red Shirts are not blind to Thaksin’s excessive corruption. But they see him as a rare Thai politician who actually bothered to connect with them. Moreover, as prime minister, Thaksin made a point of delivering much-needed services to the underclasses: subsidised medical care and micro-loans, to name just two.

But the unspoken issue behind Thailand’s unrest is that, with the country’s 82-year-old king ailing, the Palace’s moral force has come into question. Indeed, Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Pirmoya, breaking taboos that have governed the country for years, recently spoke about the need to re-examine the country’s lèse majesté laws so that public discourse could intelligently address the role of the Palace in Thailand’s future.

What Thaksin did for the poor required only political self-interest. Yet even that elementary wisdom has never occurred to traditional ruling elites too set in their ways. Until it does, Thailand’s otherwise promising future will be increasingly remote.

The writer, a former fellow at Oxford University, is an investor based in Thailand and Argentina
 

5 scenarios for Thai crisis

20 April 2010 Martin Petty for Reuters

"Thailand's military has vowed to get tough on anti-government protesters who say they will occupy a luxury hotel and shopping district "indefinitely", raising the risk of another violent confrontation.

Attitudes have hardened on both sides since troops and protesters clashed in Bangkok on April 10, killing 25 people and wounding more than 800 during a chaotic army crackdown that has intensified a five-year political crisis.

Following are scenarios about what could happen next.

TROOPS TRY TO BREAK UP PROTEST TRIGGERING VIOLENT CLASHES

The army says it will use force if necessary to take back the main protest site at the Rachaprasong intersection and has warned that could cause casualties.

Troops would likely move in at night, encountering red shirt guards blocking the main entrances to the site, while swarms of protesters join in. Soldiers, unable to drive through streets blocked by cars and trucks, throw tear gas and fire rubber bullets at demonstrators, who stand firm.

As in the April 10 crackdown, shadowy gunmen may appear and open fire with assault rifles and grenade launchers. Panicky troops open fire on the crowd, with significant casualties.

The military is unable to secure the sprawling protest base, surrounded by concrete pillars, bridges, shops, tents and an elevated rail track. Troops withdraw. The protest continues.

PROBABILITY: This is a likely scenario given the huge political stakes, the commercial significance of the location and the military's tough new stance.

MARKET REACTION: Stocks .SETI and the baht THB= would slide. Ratings agencies would consider another downgrade for Thailand. Long term investments would go on hold.

ARMY SECURES PROTEST SITE, RED SHIRTS REGROUP ELSEWHERE

The military moves in unannounced during the early hours of the morning when the number of demonstrators is considerably lower than in the evening and daytime. Clashes ensue, causing some casualties. But the crowd is small, and the soldiers are able to overcome "red shirt" guards.

The military surrounds the site in huge numbers. Many protesters agree to leave, others are chased away by troops, who secure the site and establish a perimeter. The government swiftly announces it has taken control.

Protest leaders vow to regroup. After a flurry of phone calls and text messages, and "red shirt" radio issuing a call to mass at another site, thousands begin a new demonstration elsewhere.

PROBABILITY: This is the second-most likely scenario.

MARKET IMPACT: The resilient bourse falls, but there is no mass selling. However, investors are aware this is a quick-fix and not a long term solution and many remain on the sidelines.

GOVERNMENT, PROTESTERS AGREE TO RESUME TALKS

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is eager to avoid bloodshed and offers to restart talks with no preconditions. The protesters accept. This takes the heat off a tense situation and allows all parties some breathing space.

However, neither side has anything to bring to the table. Abhisit and his backers refuse to agree to a shorter timeframe for holding an election and the talks collapse.

The protesters remain defiant and their rally continues.

PROBABILITY: The two sides are unlikely to even hold talks, let alone come to any agreement. The government has accused the "red shirts" of harbouring "terrorists", and they in turn have branded the government "murderous" over the April 10 clashes.

MARKET IMPACT: Thai stocks would rally briefly, if the two sides agreed to talks, and the market, one of Asia's cheapest, might see several days of gains during the cooling-off period, before falling again when the talks inevitably collapse.

CLASHES OCCUR, ABHISIT DISSOLVES HOUSE, ARMY STAGES COUP

The army's attempt to break up the protests results in heavy bloodshed. Abhisit's position becomes untenable. He defies his military and establishment allies and dissolves parliament.

Aware polls would almost certainly return a government allied with ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra -- the de facto "red shirt" leader despised by the establishment elites -- the military stages a coup saying it is upholding national security and protecting the revered king.

PROBABILITY: Highly unlikely. Abhisit is showing no signs of wavering. He needs the military as much as they need him and both are determined to keep Thaksin at bay and prevent early polls.

MARKET IMPACT: Stocks would plunge after massive foreign selling, and the baht would weaken. Concerns about fiscal mismanagement, poor governance, and a public backlash -- even civil war -- would curtail long-term investment. Thailand's credit ratings would be downgraded."

Did authorities overreact to the volcanic ash?

20 April 2010 - By Patrick Smith - Salon.com

There was no choice but to err on the safe side, but that won't stop the questions.

"The airlines, along with their advocacy groups, have grown increasingly vocal over the past few days, urging that restrictions be lifted and, in some cases, accusing European authorities of having mucked up the whole affair through overreaction and bureaucratic bungle.

Taking that second point first, I'm not sure what we were supposed to expect when a sudden natural calamity affects more than 20 sovereign nations simultaneously. Such events lend themselves to a certain, let's just say, logistical disorientation.

The airlines' comments have, not unpredictably, brought out the cynics. With carriers losing an estimated $200 million daily, it's easy to understand the eagerness to get flying again, but are they being reckless about it?

There are millions of people out there who see airlines as the embodiment of evil on earth, but let me remind you of the immense liability issues at hand. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, airlines are not looking to play fast and loose with the lives of their customers. They have too much to lose. Call me a shill if you want, but remember that I'm a crew member too. Speaking as a pilot, rest assured that I am not particularly eager to put myself, never mind those people on my plane, in harm's way.

Meanwhile, the next chapter in this saga (to borrow an Icelandic word) will be controversies over passenger reimbursements and air carrier bailouts. European carriers are already asking for support, while passengers who paid a few hundred dollars for an airline ticket are, in some cases, expecting thousands in compensation. Is this fair? Who owes whom, and for what? It's a topic that will stoke emotions and fire up anti-airline sentiment. What fun.

Was there an overreaction to the ash? It's impossible to say, but we had no choice really but to err on the safe side. There was too much at stake. The airlines, believe me, realize this in full. They are pushing for resolution; they are not being daredevils.

Indeed things are slowly returning to normal. And that's how we should expect it to happen -- slowly, methodically. This ash cloud is not a localized or uniform thing. It's nebulous and changing, hour by hour, more hazardous in some areas than in others. The skies will reopen sector by sector, not in one wallop.

Nobody is saying the crisis has been handled ideally, but there are plenty of smart, dedicated professionals who have been focused on this problem from the start. All in all, I'd say we've handled it pretty well.

But don't close the book just yet. Eyjafjallajokull continues its angry fuming, and now winds have turned portions of the ash cloud westbound. And scientists are turning their attention toward a second Icelandic volcano, Katla, which has begun to rumble ominously.

The overarching moral here, of course, is that we as humans remain at the mercy of nature. There are those things in the world over which he have little or no control. It's almost funny watching and listening to the frustrations of certain people, who see this crisis as one of human failure rather than simple human frailty."

Happy birthday Alex !

20 April 1997 to 20 April 2010 - 13 today !

The Ashes become an election issue

20 April 2010

Why on earth should the government be responsible for flying Brits back to their drab little island?

There are many Brits abroad who are now complaining that the government is not doing enough to get people back home. Yet these people could afford to go on vacation. They had the time and money. They are not exactly your poor and needy.

Sure people are inconvenienced. But its like owning a car If you cant afford the insurance then don't buy a car. If you can afford a holiday you can afford a little extra cost and work to manage the inconvenience.

If your airline does not look after you don't fly with them again.

If the tour groups do not look after you then do not book with them again.

But with an election just over two weeks away there is huge pressure on the UK's Labour government to be seen to be doing something akin to the Dunkirk evacuation.

Funny isn't it - people say they want less government and less bureaucracy. But as soon as something goes wrong then the government has to step in and fix it.  And if the Labour Party does nothing then the opposition parties will make political hay.

The Labour Party did not blow up the Icelandic volcano. They did not send people overseas on vacation. If you are concerned about acts of God - then stay and holiday in the UK.

Many people have shown great ingenuity to get home. Many companies have made huge efforts to help people. The ferry, coach and rail companies have laid on numerous extra services. Yet still people moan. They complain about a lack of care or information. Show the initiative to find out what your options are. or just stay where you are until it blows over and stop complaining !

No one died. No one was hurt. No one was robbed (except for people being put on hold by Aer Lingus at 10p per minute - disgraceful).

One friend is on his way back to Dubai from the UK via train to Paris - 6 hour wait - train to Lyon and train to Nice and then fly to Dubai arriving on Thurs morning and straight to work. Hope he showers first.

Judgements on safety clouded by profit losses

20 April 2010 Editorial - The National

Key quote: "the thought that the eyes of some airline executives and airport managers may be more focused on the bottom line than on passenger safety discomforts us."


"Try finding a person who can pronounce its name or pinpoint its location on a map and you’d probably be out of luck. By now, though, it’s nearly impossible to find a person who doesn’t know that Eyjafjallajokull – don’t even try it – spells inconvenience, hardship and even heartache on a global scale.

The fine grey ash spewed into the atmosphere from the volcano in Iceland has dashed holidays, thwarted work and slowed economies. Nearly a whole continent – Europe – has been closed to air traffic altogether. The figures are staggering. More than 6.8 million airline passengers and 313 airports have been affected, and 63,000 flights have been cancelled worldwide at a cost to airlines of $200 million a day.

As shown by the sharp slowdown at airports, even 6,900km away the UAE is by no means immune. Most who work here come from somewhere else – just ask any number of residents who were expecting visits by family members this week. Then there’s our food. Shipments of dairy products from the US and fruit and vegetables from the Netherlands have halted, with local wholesalers turning to nations as far-flung as Australia and South Africa to make up the shortfall.

Everyone is waiting for the all clear. The disagreement that is emerging is just who should make that call and when to do it.

Suffering from an economic squeeze compared to the aftermath of September 11, the airlines are perhaps understandably chafing to get back to business. The international aviation authority has called the continued closure of airspace as “a European embarassment”. British Airways wants authorities to allow airlines to decide when it’s safe to fly.

There is a valid argument to be made about how much expense should be incurred as a precaution against an unlikely disaster, even if its consequences are grim. And the airlines are arguing that a crash truly is unlikely. Several international carriers have conducted test flights, minus passengers, and reported no damage to the aircraft. Besides, the argument goes, airlines, not to mention passengers, wouldn’t fly if they really thought there was a risk, regardless of the profit motive.

Of course, flying has never been risk-free, no matter how much the airline industry tries to persuade us otherwise. But the thought that the eyes of some airline executives and airport managers may be more focused on the bottom line than on passenger safety discomforts us. For the time being, the possibility of silicon-laden ash turning to glass inside aircraft engines, causing them to stall thousands of feet above the earth, is convincing enough.

The airlines, and those that depend on them, should be digging in to weather this storm. In all likelihood, governments will come to the rescue before their flagships fail, not an ideal situation but perhaps a necessary one.

The natural movements of earth and wind will decide when Europe’s air traffic returns to normal. Political pressure or economic emergency should have no sway in the matter – only when regulators judge that it is safe based on the best available science should the planes fly again."

Earthquakes explained in Iran

20 April 2010

An Iranian cleric has an unusual and unscientific explanation for earthquakes I wonder how would explain a volcano.

Iran is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries, and the cleric's unusual explanation for why the earth shakes follows a prediction by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a quake is certain to hit Tehran and that many of its 12 million inhabitants should relocate.

"Many women who do not dress modestly ... lead young men astray, corrupt their chastity and spread adultery in society, which (consequently) increases earthquakes," Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi was quoted as saying by Iranian media.

Some experts have even suggested Iran should move its capital to a less seismically active location. Tehran straddles scores of fault lines, including one more than 50 miles (80 kilometers) long, though it has not suffered a major quake since 1830.

In 2003, a powerful earthquake hit the southern city of Bam, killing 31,000 people — about a quarter of that city's population — and destroying its ancient mud-built citadel.

Ahmadinejad made his quake prediction two weeks ago but said he could not give an exact date. He acknowledged that he could not order all of Tehran's 12 million people to evacuate. "But provisions have to be made. ... At least 5 million should leave Tehran so it is less crowded," the president said.

Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadeq Mahsooli said prayers and pleas for forgiveness were the best "formulas to repel earthquakes."

"We cannot invent a system that prevents earthquakes, but God has created this system and that is to avoid sins, to pray, to seek forgiveness, pay alms and self-sacrifice," Mahsooli said.

The tragedy of Shashi Tharoor

BBC - Soutik Biswas - 19 April 2010

This is best read together with the author's article on Time to Clean Up Indian Cricket. The comments that follow indicate how strong feelings are on all sides.

"When Shashi Tharoor joined the Congress-led government as a junior foreign affairs minister after a rousing electoral debut last year, he was hailed as a great, young hope for a new emerging politics. At 54, he is still a toddler by Indian political standards.

Mr Tharoor's credentials were impeccable. He had been a top UN diplomat who had even taken a shot at the secretary general's job, albeit unsuccessfully. He was erudite (a prolific writer of novels, non-fiction and columns), articulate (a delight for English TV networks) and adept at using social networking tools to reach out to his supporters (more than 700,000 followers on Twitter). He appeared to be a far cry from the stereotypical subcontinental politician.

Once in government, Mr Tharoor led a charmed life. First he was ticked off by the government for staying in a luxury hotel at a time when his recession-hit government was preaching austerity. (Mr Tharoor argued that he was paying his own bills, but moved out of the hotel anyway). Then his frenzied Twittering got him into trouble - on at least two occasions he appeared to have irked his party with his messages. He finally ran out of luck on Sunday night after the government could not countenance his involvement with a cricket team in a tournament neck deep in allegations of corruption and sleaze.

In many ways, Mr Tharoor's inglorious departure is a big blow to urban, English-speaking Indians who believe that the country's politics needs people like him to change the rules of the game. "Tharoor's predicament should give no joy to those who have yearned for freshness in politics. He had his chance but let human frailties and the air of India cloud his judgement," writes analyst Swapan Dasgupta. "His unavoidable fall will be celebrated by those who want politics to remain a closed shop."

Was Mr Tharoor's fall a result of blithe insouciance - or what Mr Dasgupta calls "smug superciliousness" - that made him think that he could never do any wrong? Or was he naïve enough to get involved in the auction of a team in a controversial cricket event, as alleged? It is difficult to say. Mr Tharoor has maintained his innocence and said that nobody ever raised any questions about his integrity in his career as a UN diplomat.

But most analysts say it was a bit reckless of him to allow a close aide to turn up for the auction of a cricket team in which a woman friend of his [with Dubai connections as has Mr. Tharoor] was picking up equity, allegedly free. They say it was improper for him to even call up the chief of the Indian Premier League to discuss matters relating to the team. All this, they say, doesn't ring quite true with a telling Twitter message from Mr Tharoor last week, before he handed in his resignation: "Thanks for all the support and good wishes. You folks are the new India. We will 'be the change' we wish to see in our country. But not without pain!" Social networking will never win votes in India. In the end, writes Swapan Dasgupta, "a man who sought 'new politics' was brought down because he couldn't rise above old politics". That perhaps really sums up the tragedy of Shashi Tharoor."

Airlines versus the regulators

19 April 2010

UK and European airlines are pressing the Government and European Union regulators to be allowed back to fly; even if under strict regulations; such as daytime flights only.

The airlines are losing money. They want to fly. Above all else they want to clarity on the criteria for restoring operations. And now they are angry with the regulators. I am not sure how you can be angry about people who put safety first.

Had a plane fallen out of the sky in the last few days then a tragedy would have happened which with our technology would be wholly unnecessary.

And why is this such a big deal. Some people are inconvenienced. Some people are out of pocket. The airlines that are financially sound will quikcly pick up momentum and overfill their planes over the next two weeks.

But no one had died or lost everything from this volcano. It is not on the same scale as the Qiinghai earthquake.

There can be no doubt that closing airspace was the correct initial reaction given the cost and danger of damage of accident from the debris in the ash clouds. Now it looks as though air space will partially re-open over Europe on Tuesday.

The airlines want to fly. But better safe than sorry in this case. One airplane losing engine power after flights restart and the whole network will be closed down again.

And don't be surprised if the Iceland Volcano decides that it has not finished; another serious eruption and disruption of traffic is quite possible.

Financially this will have hurt some airlines. But those that already have their hands out for bail-out money should be ashamed.

flydubai adds Kabul and Luxor

18 April 2010

Dubai’s low cost carrier flydubai announced today that it will be introducing two new routes to Afghanistan and Egypt in May.

Starting on May 17, the budget airline will fly to Kabul in Afghanistan, followed two days later with flights to the ancient Egyptian city of Luxor.

Flights to the Afghan capital will start from AED725 (expensive for flydubai's routes) and will be five times per week, whereas flights to Luxor will be priced at AED350 and will be three times a week, a statement by the airline said.

Ghaith al Ghaith, CEO of flydubai, said: “This brings our network to 17 destinations and continues our commitment to make travel a little less complex, a little less stressful and a little less expensive.

“Kabul is going through a very turbulent time, but providing air links on a quality airline flying the newest, safest aircraft in the industry will ensure the brave people working to secure and develop the country will have a safe, comfortable and affordable travel option.”

flydubai was founded in 2008 and now operates from Dubai International Airport Terminal 2.
 

Airline finances up in ashes?

18 April 2010

Emirates Airline said today that the disruption caused by the Icelandic volcano eruption was "unprecedented in aviation history". I guess EK was not around in the USA for the impact of 9/11 - but the disruption is significant.

The Dubai carrier said it was currently providing hotel accommodation and three meals per day for more than 5,000 transit passengers at a cost of more than $1 million per day.

In total the disruption caused by the Icelandic volcano eruption has cost Emirates Airline in excess of $50m. The airline said it is losing revenue from 18,000 passengers a day as airspace across the UK and much of Europe remains closed. Around 30 Emirates aircraft are grounded, equivalent to one fifth of the fleet, the statement said.

The problem is that the airlines were only just beginning to emerges from the latest financial crisis. The fear must be that the effects could last for days or even weeks.

In 2001 the suspension of all flights in American airspace for several days in the wake of the terror attacks forced a $15 billion government bail-out for domestic carriers. Even with this help US Airways and United Airlines were forced to file for bankruptcy in 2002. A prolonged disruption of flights in and out of northern Europe could threaten the tentative economic recovery in the region if business travellers and tourists stop arriving.

As many as 15 000 flights a day are now being cancelled across Europe. It is far from clear when flights will start operating again and "once they start operations again, obviously we will have aircraft in places they are not supposed to be," said Jonathan Nicholson, a spokesman for the UK Civil Aviation Authority. "It takes time before normal operations resume."

In Dubai Richard Vaughan, divisional senior vice president, Commercial Operations Worldwide said today: “Disruption of this magnitude is unprecedented in aviation history. The longer that it continues, the more complex the recovery process becomes.

“Emirates understands how difficult the ongoing disruption is for everyone affected. We continue to work on a contingency plan to get our flights and passengers moving as quickly as possible once airspace reopens.

“We estimate that, once approval has been granted to fly, it will take around 24 hours to get our flight schedules back to normal. However, with each day that passes, so the backlog grows.

“Currently, over 73,000 of our passengers have been affected by the cancellations. We plan to operate extra flights to help ease the situation but we will not be able to confirm any further details until clearance is received from European Air Traffic Control authorities.”

The airline has cancelled all its flights to the UK and most to mainland Europe on Sunday and has already grounded all early morning flights to the UK, scheduled to leave Dubai on Monday.

Airlines have weathered the effects of recessions, terror attacks, wars and diseases such as SARS in the past and most will eventually get over a few days lost to volcanic activity. But a prolonged eruption could have more unpleasant effects not just for air travellers but for everyone in and traveling to Europe.
 

Angels with bloody hands

17 April 2010 - The Economist

"Known in Thai as the “City of Angels”, Bangkok on April 10th briefly resembled an approximation of hell. Street fighting left at least 23 dead, hundreds injured and a dark cloud over the country’s huge tourism industry and its economic health in general. Yet hope that the shocking eruption of violence might jolt the two sides into mutual climbdowns has so far proved illusory. The government of Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister (pictured), is still unwilling to meet the protesters’ demand for an early election. The red-shirted protesters occupying parts of Bangkok for over a month now refuse even to talk to the government. They are both wrong.

The origins of the bloodshed can be disputed. But the underlying causes of political deadlock are not: they lie in the persistent refusal of Thailand’s elites to accept electoral defeat at the hands of Thaksin Shinawatra, a deeply flawed but nonetheless popular prime minister. He was turfed out in a coup in 2006 and went into exile. Against the odds, a party loyal to him did better than any other in an election in 2007. A year later, it was forced out of office by yellow-shirted mobs and convenient court rulings.

Mr Abhisit can hardly be surprised that he now faces the same tactics. He is also guilty of hypocrisy. In 2008 he called on the then prime minister to resign after two yellow-shirt protesters had died. In general the pro-Thaksin red shirts have shown greater discipline recently than the yellow shirts did then. The red shirts also have a stronger case: that the prime minister and his cobbled-together ruling coalition lack a popular mandate. It would be humiliating, but Mr Abhisit should offer an early election. Better to cede power that way than in a coup or bloody insurrection.

He has a point, though, that an election in itself would not end the cycle of confrontation. He knows that a red shirt, pro-Thaksin party, with its roots in the poor and populous north-east, might well win again. And again, the urban middle-classes and the business, military and aristocratic elites used to running Thailand as their private show might balk. It is not enough that the people be given the chance to vote again. There has to be consensus on the need to honour the results, and, thereafter, to replace the army-imposed constitution with its predecessor, adopted in 1997 after much public debate.

Sadly, many red shirts, too, seem to find constitutionality boring and unproductive. Mr Thaksin himself a year ago unhelpfully called for a “revolution”. Portraying themselves, falsely, as blameless, unarmed victims, his followers are holding out for complete victory. That is a foolish tactic. Many policemen and soldiers for a long time showed restraint—partly because some probably sympathise with the red shirts’ grievances. The red shirts should be looking for common ground, not the final, bloody showdown a few seem to crave.

In 1992, after a massacre in Bangkok, the army chief and protest leader were seen on television, on their knees before Bhumibol Adulyadej, Thailand’s king, being carpeted—like naughty children scolded by a tolerant parent. His prestige brought a settlement. Red shirts, though accused of being closet republicans, have asked for a royal repeat performance. That looks unlikely. The king, now 82, is in poor health, his court has taken the government’s side in the conflict, and his likely successor is deeply unpopular. A political system that relies on the crown’s “stabilising” role has broken down, leaving what is close to an undeclared civil war. In the past the mechanism for preventing such a disaster has been a coup. Better for the politicians, no matter what colour their shirt, to grow up, and talk."

Thailand update - 17 April 2010

Bangkok Post  -  Read the following - this is a good indication of hoe heavily armed the militray was in last Saturday#s crackdown. And why did they have anti-aircraft guns and ammunition at a public rally ? Bizarre.

"The government believes the red shirts are working with the armed men or they may have been infiltrated.

Among the firearms and other equipment claimed to have been lost during the clash were nine M16 rifles, 25 Tavor rifles, six anti-aircraft guns, 116 shields, 105 batons and 80 body armour suits.

The army also lost control of six personnel carriers and three high-mobility multi-purpose vehicles when troops abandoned them in the face of angry red shirts.

Ammunition also went missing, including 580 rubber bullet rounds, 600 anti-aircraft rounds and 8,182 M16 rifle rounds."

************************************
Meanwhile the ABC documentary has caused a predictable fuss:

AFP reports that Thailand has protested to the Australian government over the airing of a documentary critical of the Thai royal family and warned that the broadcast could affect ties between the nations.

A senior representative from the Thai embassy met with officials from Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs on Thursday to express his concern at the programme aired by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC).

Saksee Phromyothi, minister-counsellor at the Royal Thai Embassy, told AFP that "We consider this an issue matter of national security... because the royal family, the monarchy, in our constitution is above politics."

Thailand's ambassador designate Kriangsak Kittichaisaree has also written to ABC managing director Mark Scott to complain about the programme which could breach Thailand's lese-majeste laws which prohibit criticism of the royals.

"I regret that an organisation of the ABC's stature has lowered its own standard by airing the said documentary which is presented in a manner no different from tabloid journalism," he wrote.

The programme was shown last Tuesday in Australia but it cannot be seen on the Internet outside the country.
 

Thailand mulls a 'half coup'
16 April 2010 By Shawn W Crispin Asia Times

This is worth a read in full. It is worthy of a movie Full of intrigue and back stabbing that makes ancient Rome look like a tea party. Assuming Crispin's sources are good - this is remarkable.

"When assassins dressed in black killed one top military commander and maimed two others in the early stages of the April 10 clashes between Thai security forces and red-shirted anti-government protesters, the precision hits were likely as political as they were tactical.

Analysts and diplomats believe that the pre-emptive strikes effectively broke the military's chain of command and contributed significantly to the subsequent random violence that resulted in at least 24 deaths - including five soldiers - and over 800 injuries, many from bullet and grenade shrapnel wounds.

Significantly, the three targeted officers were all primed for promotion to top-ranking positions in this year's military reshuffle and all were known loyalists to the deputy army commander, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who is poised to replace the army commander, General Anupong Paochinda, on his mandatory retirement later this year.

The sophisticated nature of the targeted attacks, including the use of laser-guided spot and shoot teams, and the apparent leak of confidential information concerning troops' plans and formations, has suggested to analysts possible military involvement in the assaults. Officials have claimed that "terrorists" rather than rogue soldiers orchestrated the violence. But the uncertainty has raised critical new questions about army unity at a pivotal juncture in the country's violently escalating five-year-old political conflict.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government has said that deployed soldiers used live ammunition only in self-defense after they unexpectedly came under fire; the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group has claimed that none of its supporters were under arms. International reaction to the killings has been guarded due to the still unclear circumstances surrounding the violence.

The UDD launched its protests in mid-March two weeks after a Thai court ruled to confiscate US$1.4 billion worth of exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's assets on charges of abuse of power. His elected government was toppled in a bloodless 2006 military coup and the UDD has mobilized around his still strong grass-roots popularity, particularly in the northern and northeastern regions but also among Bangkok's lower classes, and his presumed funds.

In April 2009, Thaksin urged his UDD supporters in a video-linked address to launch a "social revolution" against the government, a battle cry that sparked riots in the national capital that the military suppressed professionally. Thaksin told international media at the time that soldiers had killed scores of his supporters and secretly spirited away their bodies - claims that were never substantiated with evidence.

In advance of the April 10 violence, coinciding with the start of the UDD's protests, government offices, military installations and private businesses were targeted in a mysterious bombing campaign that UDD leaders have claimed the military orchestrated to discredit their self-proclaimed peaceful protests.

Yet some diplomats monitoring the situation felt that certain bombings were coordinated with protest activities and seemingly aimed to provoke a security force crackdown against unarmed UDD demonstrators.

An armed response, diplomats then suggested, would have provided Thaksin with potent ammunition to call for a mass royal amnesty that would protect security forces from legal prosecution for killing protesters and absolve him of his court convictions, including a 2008 criminal corruption verdict that included a two-year prison sentence and drove him - before the ruling was made - into exile.

Royal silence
The palace, however, has maintained a steely silence in the wake of the April 10 violence with no hint of a royally endorsed amnesty forthcoming. This despite calls from UDD co-leaders to King Bhumibol Adulyadej to intervene in the crisis. Queen Sirikit, meanwhile, made a symbolic appearance at the funeral of Colonel Romklao Thuwatham, the commander killed on April 10 who was also her former bodyguard, and has paid hospital visits to injured soldiers.

As Abhisit's government and UDD leaders fire accusations and counter-accusations over who should be held chiefly accountable for the April 10 death and destruction, it is the military's next moves that will determine the country's political trajectory. One palace insider told Asia Times Online that top soldiers had in recent days weighed the possibility of launching a "half coup" that would maintain Abhisit's Democrat party in political power while relieving certain soldiers of their command posts.

For his part, Anupong has maintained that politicians must find a political solution to the crisis and this week lent his tacit support to the dissolution of parliament and holding new elections, without mentioning a timetable. But an internal military putsch that replaces Anupong with Prayuth, purges military officers perceived to be under Thaksin's and the UDD's sway, and invokes martial law to clamp down on the UDD, is also a strong possibility.

Anupong is believed to have lost significant support among the top brass and sections of the palace after Saturday's botched security operation. In particular, he has been criticized for not moving earlier and more decisively against the UDD, including on occasions when demonstrators left lightly guarded their main protest sites to participate in roving rallies around Bangkok.

"How much longer can Anupong last?" asks one Bangkok-based diplomat. "He has become something of a do-nothing army commander who is not willing to do get involved in crucial operations ... His earlier restraint is now seen in the eyes of some as a liability." People who attended the funeral ceremony this week of one of the fallen commanders said that Anupong was isolated and ignored by other top soldiers.

Any Prayuth-led purge of the military would aim to remove senior officers believed to be in league with and providing confidential information to Thaksin and the UDD. In particular, questions are being raised about the possible role of the paramilitary tahahn prahn, or Rangers, in last Saturday's commando-style decapitation of the military's on-the-ground command.

Unaccountable force
Analysts and diplomats say that the Rangers are one of the few Thai military units with the capability and training to have accomplished such a sophisticated military-style operation. Certain Rangers have openly demonstrated their support for the UDD and in recent weeks appeared in full uniform to sing songs on the UDD's protest stage.

General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who first formed the Rangers as a counter-communist force in 1978, has according to at least one academic study [1] maintained influence over the elite unit in his civilian capacity and has deployed its soldiers for political purposes in the past. The Rangers are perhaps the least accountable of the Thai military's units, embodied in a culture that allows soldiers to come and go without question from their main camp in Korat province.

One government official says they are now quietly probing the current status of Chavalit's connections with the Rangers. Chavalit is now chairman of the Thaksin-aligned opposition Puea Thai party and is tipped to run as the party's prime ministerial candidate at the next polls. He has said publicly that Abhisit should take full responsibility for the April 10 deaths.

Other insiders believe that the Supreme Command has played a role in leaking information to the UDD from the government's security command center, including confidential details of the military's plans and formations for dispersing the UDD. They note that Supreme Commander General Songkitti Jaggabatra has been a dissenting voice in top-level meetings held to devise strategies for dealing with the UDD.

A government official says the matter is under "internal investigation"; Songkitti could not be reached for this article.

It's unclear, however, just how deep intra-military distrust runs. The earlier consensus among military analysts and observers was that Anupong had since the 2006 coup consolidated his power through a series of reshuffles and demotions that aimed specifically at purging remnant support for Thaksin from leadership positions in the armed forces.

Some military insiders, including former spy chief and behind-the-scenes 2006 coup leader, Squadron Leader Prasong Soonsiri, had in recent months made presentations to diplomats that there was still strong pro-Thaksin sentiment at certain top levels of the armed forces. Some now believe Thaksin has capitalized on mounting resentment to the disproportionate promotion of former Queen's Guards, including Anupong and Prayuth, at recent reshuffles.

That may partially explain why Anupong and Prayuth relied on known loyalists outside of Bangkok, including the Prachinburi province-based 2nd Infantry Division, to play the lead role in last Saturday's crowd control operation. One military insider said that "trust issues" were a factor in the decision to deploy the Bangkok-based 1st Infantry Division only on the operation's perimeter and to keep the Bangkok-based 2nd and 4th Cavalry units in the barracks. Nor were the special forces deployed, a unit known peeved since 2007 for having its leaders sidelined by Anupong after playing a pivotal role in the coup that ousted Thaksin.

It's uncertain how senior soldiers would react to any order from Prayuth to quit their commands, though one military insider suggests any aggressive action to lockdown top officers perceived to be compromised could spark a "civil war". Some believe that this week's mysterious botched attack on an electricity generating plant providing power to Bangkok was meant to send a signal to Prayuth that any internal coup would be met with strong and potentially debilitating resistance.

One diplomat suggests that the top brass should instead aim to publicly "name and shame" officers with hard evidence proving they leaked information or participated in operations that endangered and took other soldiers' lives rather than launch another coup. The envoy expressed concerns that the military could be emboldened to act more forcefully by the tepid domestic and international response to last Saturday's bloodbath.

Yet passions are known to be running high in Prayuth's camp after the Queen's Guard soldiers who were expected to make up the core of his power base upon becoming army commander were targeted, killed and maimed in a military-style assault.

It's thus unclear whether the military under Prayuth's leadership would countenance the prospect of elections that could hand Chavalit the premiership and by proxy give Thaksin sway over future military policies and reshuffles. But even a "half coup" would be highly unpopular and could well push Thailand to a tipping point."

Note
1. See Desmond Ball's The Boys in Black: The Thahan Prahn (Rangers), Thailand's Paramilitary Border Guards, White Lotus Press, Bangkok, 2004.

Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor.
 

All on Anupong

16 March 2010

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva tonight made his army chief the head of national security in a bid to streamline operations as anti-government protesters massed in the streets calling for his downfall.

Army chief General Anupong Paochinda will replace Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, Abhisit said, admitting that efforts to rein in the protests had failed six days after violent clashes killed 24 people.

“We have reached a consensus today to treat all terrorist acts as special cases, which will facilitate in speeding up legal proceedings that we need to take,” he said in a televised address.

“The unsuccessful efforts taken so far in enforcing law have prompted us to review structural issues.”

The government has promised to crack down on what it terms “terrorists” whom it blames for Saturday’s killings. Abhisit also admitted efforts to arrest some red shirt leaders on Friday had failed.

In his 12-minute national address last night to make the crucial announcement, Abhisit used the word "terrorist" or "terrorism" five times.
 

Thailand's Broken Democracy
16 April 2010 - Time magazine - Hannah Beech

"When I was a kid growing up in Bangkok, we used to have "coup days" — school would be canceled because of the threat of tanks rolling down the street. I loved the bonus vacation time, but the fact that putsches, or rumors of them, happened so often as to merit a specific type of holiday proved just how unstable Thailand's political landscape was. Thirty years later, not much has changed in one of the world's favorite vacation destinations. As red-shirted antigovernment protesters have besieged Bangkok for a month now, my son's school has been intermittently shuttered. And the favorite parlor game in the Thai capital remains the same: guessing when the men in green might move.

In the facile political taxonomy we use to categorize nations, Thailand is considered a democracy. Yet the country remains, if not a banana republic, a juicy, messy mango republic. Over the past four years, two political blocs, loosely divided in terms of class and geography, have swapped control of government with whirlwind velocity, using ever more creative protest tactics and distortions of democratic institutions to vanquish their opponents. (See pictures from Thailand's April 2009 protests.)

The recent twists and turns of Thai politics make even a Tolstoy epic feel streamlined. Here are the highlights: In 2006, after months of protests by his opponents (clad in their trademark yellow shirts), populist Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was overthrown in a military putsch and later sentenced in absentia for abuse of power. After a bungled attempt to guide the country, the generals allowed elections, which a Thaksin-supported party promptly won. But that Prime Minister was forced out of office by a court decree because he had accepted a token fee for hosting a cooking show. Later, with Thaksin's brother-in-law helming the government, the Yellow Shirts, who had besieged the prime ministerial offices for months, resorted to hijacking Bangkok's two airports for a week.

The political deadlock eased only in December 2008 when the constitutional court ordered the Thaksin proxy party dissolved for electoral fraud, paving the way for current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's ascension through parliamentary backroom deals. Ever since, red-shirted Thaksin supporters have periodically descended on Bangkok streets, demanding fresh elections that they hope will usher in a leader who will address the needs of the nation's lower classes. Their latest rally on April 10 turned violent, with protesters and troops trading gunfire in the shadow of the capital's Democracy Monument; 23 people, both military and civilian, died in Thailand's worst political unrest in nearly two decades. Then, on April 12, a curiously timed Election Commission decision was handed down, recommending that Abhisit's Democrat Party be disbanded for accepting illegal campaign donations. (Read "Does Thailand's Military Answer to the Government?")

Even as this political farce has unfolded, Bangkok has, for the most part, felt strangely normal. Earlier this month, Abhisit declared a state of emergency in the capital after the red rallies swelled and mysterious grenades were lobbed across town. But restaurants were still packed, bars still buzzing. The only real outcry seemed to come when protesters had the audacity to converge near six shopping malls, forcing a halt to retail therapy.

Yet the growing political lawlessness is devastating for Thailand's economy — and the bloodshed of April 10 is impossible to ignore. Already, foreign investors are looking at regional alternatives like Indonesia or Vietnam as safer places to park their money. On April 12 Thailand's Finance Ministry trimmed half a percentage point off this year's growth estimate of 4.5% because of the continuing crisis. The same day, army chief General Anupong Paochinda, whose support is key to Abhisit's coalition, opined that a parliamentary dissolution followed by elections was a wise course of action. The Reds were elated. They believe their side will prevail at the ballot box. But the Yellow Shirts quickly came out of hiding and announced plans to stage their own counterdemonstrations.

As ever, Bangkok buzzes with speculation that the army might again extend its iron fist, if only to stop the revolving door of street protests. My son, I suspect, will enjoy plenty more coup days off from school."

Crisis meeting after a weekend of golf

16 April 2010

There is no crisis in Bangkok. The army will have a meeting of commanders. But not until Monday. After all a weekend on the golf course is clearly a military priority.

Thailand - where the army - or at least its leaders - only work from Monday to Friday.

The Bangkok Post is reporting that Army commander-in-chief Anupong Paojinda on Friday afternoon issued an urgent order instructing troop commanders of the rank Maj Gen and higher to attend an extraordinary meeting at 1pm on Monday at Army Headquarters, reports said.

It was reported that Gen Anupong, deputy army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, army chief assistants Gen Theerawat Boonyapradab and Gen Wit Thephassadin na Ayutthaya, army chief of staff Gen Phirun Phaewpolsong, commanders of Army Region 1-4, and commander of the Special Warfare Unit would all attend this important gathering.

Botched in Bangkok !

16 April 2010

This is too funny. The simple version is that three red shirt leaders were sleeping in the decidedly average SC hotel last night. The authorities knew this. They raided the hotel. The three leaders escaped. And red shirts took captive at least two of the police officers.

But there is so much more to this !

The Nation says the raid was carried out by "dozens of commandos".

Red shirt leader Arisamun Pongruengrong scaled down a rope from the balcony of his room on the third floor and was rescued by some 500 red shirts protesters. See this picture from TNA. But why is there a policeman in the background taking pictures of the rescuers. Why is he not arresting Arisman?

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban has earlier announced the raid on national television. "As I am speaking, special forces are surrounding the SC Park Hotel where we believe the terrorists and their leaders are staying," he said about 10am. "We will arrest and suppress the terrorists. We have set up special task forces to hunt down the terrorists," he said.

Why announce the raid on TV before it has been completed. Did this alert the red shirts.

Why - and this is always the case - was there photographers and a TV station at the hotel to take pictures of Mr Arisman. WHo alerted the media to be there at that time?

At 11.30am, government spokesman Panitan Wattanayakorn told reporters that the operation to arrest the red-shirt leaders was "unsuccessful".

"They planned to kill me. They planned to kill me," Arisman has told foreign press. "There were two (unexploded) bombs in my room"

Not only did commandos fail to arrest red leaders, some senior officers were also "taken" hostage by reds.

Meanwhile more than ten members of the People ‘s Network for Protecting the Nation, led by Chaiwat Sinsuwong, submit a letter to Gen Kanit Saphithak, Army Region 1 commander, calling for the use of martial law or any other stringent measures to settle the continuing political problem, reports said.

“The situation has been escalating and the imposition of the martial law will give the military absolute power in dealing with the protesters and maintaining peace and order”, Mr Chaiwat said on Friday afternoon.

But this botched raid can only add to the pressure on Abhisit. The police and army have failed him again. Heads should roll. But whose head?

Tulsathit from the Nation has been running a twitter contest for the best caption to this picture. My offering: Dope on a Rope. Others include Die Another Day. Dangle Berry. Bangkok Dangerous.

In case we forget what matters

16 April 2010

A nine-month-old child injured in the earthquake in Yushu, Qinghai.Reuters

Sadly the volcano story has taken over any news of the 48 hours old news of China earthquake in Yushu, Qinghai. There the death told is at least 760 and over 8,000 are injured and many more homeless, perhaps 100,000.

We seem to have got our priorities very wrong.

The quake was centered in a largely Tibetan area of China. It is remote. Almost inaccessible. 800 km away from the provincial capital Xining.

Chine is restricting access by local and foreign reporters to this sensitive region. We are getting less coverage and news than in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake. But that does not mean that we should ignore the story and the suffering.

What matters more - pictures of a hen party that could not get to Spain for a pissed - up weekend - or coverage of the rescue efforts in China.
 

Martyrs on both sides
Blood on the streets does not seem to bring compromise any closer

15 April 2010 - The Economist

"When protesters hurled their own blood last month against the walls of the prime minister’s house in Bangkok, it was an act of macabre political theatre. Photographers crouched to snap the sticky pavement. On April 10th there was more blood on the streets, spilled in earnest, during the worst political violence in Bangkok since May 1992. As then, armed soldiers clashed with anti-government demonstrators. This time at least 23 people died. Several hundred were injured, some seriously.

The government and the red-shirted protesters each accuse the other of starting the firefight. There is confusion over how the violence escalated after dark. Rogue soldiers may have had a hand in it. The prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has blamed “terrorists” for the bloodshed. Red-shirt leaders say the army massacred innocents. On April 12th they paraded several empty coffins around the city.

For the past month, the demonstrators have occupied a symbolic swathe of Bangkok’s old city, in a campaign to force an early election against the wishes of Mr Abhisit, whose term ends next year. The protests have been peaceful, but the capital has been shaken by a string of unsolved bombings. Protesters also seized a second site in a posh shopping area and on April 7th briefly invaded parliament, giving Mr Abhisit a pretext to declare a state of emergency in and around Bangkok.

At first it was an emergency in name only. Red shirts were emboldened by signs of divided loyalties among rank-and-file troops, many of whom hail from the same working-class or rural backgrounds as do the reds. On April 9th protesters overran a satellite relay station that had blocked their television channel. For hawks, that seems to have been the final straw.

In the afternoon of the next day the army advanced along the tree-lined streets leading to the red shirts’ encampment on a canal bridge. In initial skirmishes, troops used rubber bullets and tear gas on protesters, whose numbers swelled as reinforcements arrived by car and motorbike. As the sun sank low in the sky, a queasy calm prevailed. Riot troops slumped by their shields. An army negotiator used a loudspeaker to play “Imagine” by John Lennon.

What happened next is disputed. The government and army say troops retreating along narrow streets came under fire and shot back, provoking a furious response from protesters on the other side of the barricades. The battle lasted an hour or so. But the casualties came in thick and fast. Most protesters were armed, if at all, with sharpened sticks and rocks. Soldiers fired live rounds into the air and towards the crowds in the darkened streets.

The rogue firepower appeared to come from black-clad men armed with assault rifles and explosives. Similar agents provocateurs have played walk-on roles in previous political showdowns in Bangkok. Your correspondent watched a gunman step into the street where red shirts had taken cover and calmly direct a burst of fire towards the army lines. On a parallel street, protesters overran a column of armoured personnel carriers, whose captured crewmen were later paraded on the rally stage, along with the corpses of two protesters.

After the shocking explosion of hatred and violence, tensions eased a bit this week as Bangkokians celebrated the Thai new year holiday. Last year’s festivities were similarly blighted by violent clashes that left two people dead. On that occasion, the army soon restored order. Mr Abhisit gained kudos for quelling an unruly mob. The latest protests, however, have been both more orderly and bigger. They have attracted huge crowds, testimony to the pulling power of the red shirts. This alarms Bangkok’s blinkered elites, who dismiss them as puppets in the pay of Thaksin Shinawatra, an exiled former prime minister, ousted in a coup in 2006.

No surrender
Still neither side seems in the mood to compromise. Red-shirt leaders said on April 14th that they would move all their supporters to their second site, in the shopping district, to prepare for a showdown. Yet a negotiated settlement that includes a prompt timetable for a fresh election—in exchange for some withdrawal by the protesters—seems the only way out. Mr Abhisit, who ordered the crackdown, may have to go. His hand could also be forced by the alleged campaign-finance abuses by his Democrat Party. The Election Commission said on April 12th it will seek the dissolution of the party. The ruling may have been intended as a sop to red shirts who see the commission as biased. It will take several months to reach the courts. Democrats have denied any irregularities.

A firmer nudge towards elections may come from either the Democrats’ skittish coalition partners or the army, whose support remains crucial for Mr Abhisit’s survival. The army chief, General Anupong Paochinda, has said that a parliamentary dissolution may be the way forward and appeared to distance himself from the botched crackdown, which he reportedly delegated to his hawkish deputy. The troops are back in their barracks.

But there is also pressure on Mr Abhisit from right-wingers. A newspaper columnist described the rallies as “full-blown treason with terrorism”. Chillingly, recalling the pretexts used for previous massacres by the army, the revered monarchy is being invoked. Ultra-royalists are claiming it is under attack, and calling for martial law so that troops can finish the job. This is not all paranoid fantasy: republican anger is indeed bubbling to the surface.

The army also has its martyrs. Five soldiers have died. Ground commanders were apparently the targets of the rogue gunmen, suggesting an inside job. Red-shirt leaders have boasted of leaks from allies inside military headquarters. There is even a name for disgruntled, red-leaning soldiers: “watermelons”, ie, green outside, red inside. Four years of political upheaval have left Thailand divided and disoriented. A split in the army should not come as a surprise. It is still, however, frightening."

Ash clouds keep falling on my head

15 April 2010

UK and to a lesser extent European air travel has come to a grinding halt as the skies are filled with ash spewed out by last night's eruption of an Icelandic volcano which has spewed a plume of volcanic ash that is moving southwards over the UK.

The offending volcano is called Eyjafjallajokull - no wonder none of the news networks call it by name !

The first closures were in Scotland and the north and the entirety of UK airspace was closed from noon on Thursday.

The radar scan shows mid afternoon air traffic and hardly a flight operating over the UK.

National Air Traffic Services said: "No flights will be permitted in UK controlled airspace other than emergency situations" until 0700 BST on Friday at the earliest.

The eruption ejected the plume, which is made up of fine rock particles, up to 11km into the atmosphere.

The main mass of ash i over Scandinavia where airports have also been closed.

The ash cloud is so high that it is not visible from the ground and poses no threat to public health.

So why close the airports; the major concern is that the ash could pose a very serious hazard to aircraft engines.

The explosive eruptions send fine ash up into the atmosphere. But the ash blows on high winds exactly where the aeroplanes cruise." In 1982, British Airways and Singapore Airways jumbo jets lost all their engines when they flew into an ash cloud over Indonesia. Eric Moody was the captain of the BA jet in June 1982 flying BA009.

Reports said that the ash sandblasted the windscreen and clogged the engines, which only restarted when enough of the molten ash solidified and broke off.

You can see this dramatised in Air Crash Investigation - All Engines Failed - BA 009 in June 1982 http://bit.ly/dp0ABU

A KLM flight had a similar experience in 1989 over Alaska. Once the ash gets sucked into a jet engine the airliner is in peril. So the safety measures are entirely sensible. But what happens if there are further eruptions?

Of course you are flying from Iceland you wont have a problem - there an air traffic controller said "the ash is going out to ocean so our airports aren't affected."

For Emirates it is bad news - so much of their business is transit business taking passengers through Dubai from Europe to Asia and vice versa. Now there are going to be many many passengers marooned in Dubai and it is far from clear whether flights will be able to leave tomorrow morning.

Thailand Runs Out of Room for Compromise

15 April 2010 - The Wall Street Journal

The violence that left 23 dead and over 800 injured in Bangkok last Saturday hardened the divisions within society. The possibility of far worse bloodletting has only increased.

The deaths and injuries came in street fighting between security forces and red shirt protesters that lasted around an hour. Many photos and videos show black-camouflaged figures using grenades and assault rifles at close range. Autopsies found that nine of the 18 dead protesters were killed by high-velocity fire at long range—probably snipers. Clearly somebody wanted a serious death toll, but was it the security forces, the protesters, or both?

Security units and right-wing vigilante groups have played a role in past incidents. The red shirts also have an extremist wing which has explicitly threatened such violence. Each side is blaming the other, and displaying photographic evidence. The only certainty now is that the bloodshed has totally changed the confrontation.

Both sides have martyrs and grounds for revenge. The red shirts are unbowed and defiant. They have fortified their occupied positions in central Bangkok and upped their demands for an immediate dissolution of parliament and exile of the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva. Opponents of the red shirts are calling for a more severe crackdown.

Mr. Abhisit's government is sometimes pictured as a creature of the military, but its true position is more complex. Much of the business community, the professionals and the white-collar middle class in the capital are still fervent supporters. Among the die-hards, Saturday's violence offers proof that the red shirt movement is dangerous to the country. Opinion leaders have quickly resurrected the claim that the red shirts aim to overthrow the monarchy. Mr. Abhisit reflected these views by labeling the protesters as "terrorists" and accusing them of maneuvering for a "major change." These claims may be used to justify more decisive repression.

The true reason for the die-hards' fear is the depth and intensity of support for the red movement revealed over the past month. The size and stamina of the protest belied predictions. A wide spectrum of people joined the demonstrations, not just the rural poor. Many Bangkokians took part, to the surprise of those who saw this contest as village against city.

Moreover, the evident intensity of the protesters' commitment exploded any illusion that this was merely a paid mob. The organization was tight. Until last Saturday, the protest had a festival feel and was spectacularly nonviolent. Clearly this is a mass movement expressing a deeply felt demand for change. The government and military now face the prospect that any attempted coup or renewed violent oppression could trigger a far larger show of popular support for the protests.

Most worrying for the government and army has been the effect on monks and rank-and-file security personnel. Many monks joined the protests. Police stood aside. Late last week, more and more soldiers were showing signs of fraternization.

This is not surprising. Monks and privates are mostly drawn from the same social milieu as the core protesters—the lower rungs of rural and urban society. They are cousins and schoolfellows. The signs of defection among these agents of moral and physical authority seem to have panicked the government into the clumsy, failed operation last weekend.

What then are the prospects for negotiation? From the start the red shirts have been demanding a quick dissolution of parliament. The army chief seems to have accepted this as inevitable. The government has offered October. The red shirts demand tomorrow. The gap would seem to be bridgeable in a negotiated settlement.

But complexities lurk. Until this recent incident, the ruling Democrat Party and its coalition allies harbored some hope that they could survive an election if they had enough time and enough funds to spend in advance. This hope now seems forlorn. The demonstrations have shown the breadth and enthusiasm of support for the reds. Martyrdom will enhance this enthusiasm.

Electoral politicians are scrambling to shift ground in line with the voters on whom they depend. With a big election victory, the reds could reinstate the 1997 constitution scrapped by the 2006 coup, void the actions of the coup government, put the coup generals on trial, and bring back former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. In fear of these prospects, die-hard groups are howling for repression rather than negotiation. The conservative and royalist "yellow shirts" have called for martial law. Yet with every day of delay in restarting negotiations, the Democrats' electoral prospects slip still lower.

Since the 2006 coup, parliament has been battered and belittled. Two elected governments have been overthrown. More than 200 elected legislators have been banned from politics. A new constitution deliberately sets out to diminish parliament's role. The consequences are now clear. The country desperately needs to reinstate parliament as a national forum.

Thailand is running out of mechanisms for compromise. Various academic groups, business groups, peace advocates and elder statesmen have failed to gain any traction as potential conciliators. By loudly and repeatedly claiming to be defending the monarchy, the die-hard groups have eroded the institution's old role as mediator. There remains only a slim chance for Mr. Abhisit to play a positive role in the emergence of the new political Thailand, rather than being a casualty in the collapse of the old order.

Bored of BKK

15 April 2010

OK - I am getting bored with following the news from Thailand and trying to sort out real news from make believe. But every day I have to check the news from Thailand in case something significant has happened. Although it is sensibly quiet through the new year holiday.

I am also a little bored by how little many intelligent Thais know about what is happening at home and how accepting they are of the news that is fed to them - rather than searching for balance. They seem to want this crisis to simply go away and evaporate into thin air For many in Bangkok a crackdown on the reds would be perfectly acceptable. But it would solve nothing.

But a few notes from today:

The Bangkok Post says that Thai citizens possessing army weapons taken from troops or abandoned during last weekend’s clashes between government security forces and anti-government protesters are urged to return them to the authorities or police, an army spokesman said Wednesday. Presumably so they can be re-used to shoot a few more red shirts !

******************************
The scare mongers are still out there clamouring for a coup of the elite. The Post Today newspaper, a sister publication of the Bangkok Post and popular among the Bangkok middle class, yesterday stated in its front-page headline, "Turning the Country Upside Down: Suthep reveals a plan to change the country.

******************************
House Speaker Chai Chidchob yesterday revealed a desire to seeing his son Newin Chidchob become prime minister before he dies. Speaking on his 83rd birthday, the Parliament President said if Newin was blessed, he could become PM.

"We cannot block those who are destined to rise to their glory. I had said earlier that Abhisit Vejjajiva would one day become PM. If Newin is blessed, he could also become (PM),'' he said.

One problem: Newin is serving a five-year ban from politics which is due to expire in two years.

********************************
The Nation - speaking sense at last: The government's clampdown on the red-shirt media and media sympathetic to the red shirts since last week has so far generated more hatred and anger among the movement.

Again, this immature way of handling the conflict by the government can never bring about democracy. It will bring about more social division, however.

And yesterday, the government even went further by trying to block all politically "divisive" comments and pictures online related to the bloody clashes of April 10.

*********************************
Red shirts abandoned protest sites on Phan Fa bridge and along Rajdamnoen Avenue late yesterday after their leaders decided to have them join the Rajprasong intersection site for strategic reasons.

Leaders said it would be easier to guard one site rather than two - but Rajprasong is definitely more strategic in terms of its effect on the economy.
 

Thai Foreign Minister breaks taboo on role of monarchy

14 April 2010 - The Times

"The Foreign Minister of Thailand has called for an open debate on reform of the country’s monarchy; an unprecedented proposal in a land where discussion of the role of the Royal Family is taboo.

Speaking in Washington, Kasit Piromya drew comparisons with the monarchies of Britain and the Netherlands. Both countries tolerate criticism of their Royal families, which would be regarded as a serious crime in Thailand, where lèse-majesté, or insulting the king, is punishable with 15 years in prison.

Mr Kasit’s words will provoke further nervousness among a population already anxious about an ongoing political crisis and the continuing ill health of the 82-year-old king, Bhumibol Adulyadej. Abhisit Vejjajiva, the Prime Minister, is under intense pressure to dissolve parliament after battles between police and anti-government protesters in which 21 people died last Saturday.

“It is a process that we have to go through and I think we should be brave enough to go through all of this and to talk about even the taboo subject of the institution of the monarchy,” Mr Kasit said at a seminar in Washington, where he is attending the nuclear security conference.

“I think we have to talk about the institution of the monarchy, how it would have to reform itself to the modern globalised world. Everything is now becoming in the open. Let’s have a discussion: what type of democratic society would we like to be?”

Thailand’s lèse-majesté law has made any meaningful discussion of the role and future of the monarchy impossibly dangerous. Indeed, there sometimes seems to be little limit on what can be regarded as insulting the monarchy.

Recently, however, there have been signs that the taboo is being eroded. Last night the Australian television channel ABC broadcast a documentary on the Thai Royal Family which included scenes from an extraordinary video showing King Bhumibol’s daughter-in-law, Crown Princess Srirasmi, dining privately with Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn at a birthday party for her husband’s dog. In the video, which has been posted on the internet, the princess is topless and, at one point, she eats off a plate placed on the ground by the Crown Prince.

Mr Kasit is the most senior Thai politician to speak openly about reform of the monarchy. In remarks that will further stir Thailand’s political turmoil, he also accused the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, of being “a bloody terrorist” and compared him with Stalin, Mussolini and Hitler. He denounced foreign governments, including Russia and Germany, as well as Interpol, for not co-operating in returning Mr Thaksin to Thailand, where he has been convicted in absentia on corruption charges."
 

What is the link between Arabian Business and Thaksin?

14 April 2010

Arabian Business is up to its pro-Thaksin tricks again.

What governments can learn from CEOs
by Thaksin Shinawatra on Wednesday, 14 April 2010

Because the same article was posted under a different heading on 15 March.

Politicians can learn from CEOs
by Thaksin Shinawatra on Monday, 15 March 2010

And Arabian Business continues to reject any comments made under these articles.

I wrote the following comment: "What is it between Arabain Business and Thaksin? Why do you keep republishing this same article as though it is today's news. 21 people died on Saturday in violence funded by Mr. Thaksin. He is a convicted criminal living in exile."

This is their standard rejection: I do not regard my comments as either a personal insult or as using inappropriate language.

"Thank you for your recent comment posted on ArabianBusiness.com. We regret to inform you that your post did not meet the terms and conditions for comments and therefore will not be published. All posts are sent to the administrator for review and are published only after approval. ArabianBusiness.com reserves the right to remove any comment at any time for any reason. Please keep your responses appropriate and on topic. Arabian Business would like to point out that only comments relevant to the story will be published. Any containing personal insults or inappropriate language will not be approved".

The article is not news. It has been published before.  But Anil Bhoyrul is an editor at Arabian Business and also was the Editor of Thaksin's Dubai published revisionist novel - Tackling Poverty.

But this is shameless promotion of Thaksin on an allegedly news site. And it should be stopped.

When a crew excels

13 April 2010

Lots of praise for the CX crew at HKG today. Medals, the freedom of HKG and a good night's sleep should all be recommended.

I remember reading an article in Airliners where the author (a Northwest/Delta A330) captain simply said that when something goes wrong on the A330 you get a lot of information very quickly and things can go wrong very quickly.

Flight CX780 made a high-speed landing at 1:43 pm (0543 GMT) at HKG today with fire engines on standby. Passengers left the plane using three chutes, and eight passengers were injured on the slides; mainly slide burns!

It could have been much worse.

The Airbus A330 carrying 309 passengers and 13 crew members from Surabaya, Indonesia, made the emergency landing after one of its two engines was shut down and the other developed a fault during its approach.

The A330 under question is B-HLL, with Rolls Royce engines. Apparently there was an engine failure 10 minutes before landing in HKG. One engine failed and the other engine "stuck" at 70% or normal power with no response from the thrust levers; so the engine had to be shut down on final approach.

No engines means no hydraulics. No hydraulics means no flaps.

So the plane landed as a glider with a high landing speed and had to use the parking brakes to slow the plane resulting in the brakes overheating, and 6 tyres bursting with minor flames.

Reminiscent of Air Transat in the Azores years ago.

This could have been a very major incident. A double engine failure on approach and adds to the list of strange Airbus incidents.

It should be front page news in Hong Kong. For a successful landing and evacuation by a very capable crew.

Pictures from Thailand

13 April 2010

Some links to pictures from the violence in Bangkok at the weekend:

Prachatai - ireport

Pantip - warning - some of the pictures are graphic

And a worthy report in the New York Times

Aussie TV takes on the unspoken

13 April 2010

The Australian Broadcasting Corp has screened a report critical of the Thai royal family that could expose its correspondent, Eric Campbell, to Thailand's controversial lese majeste law

''It's basically a story that can only be done by people who don't live and work in Thailand,'' Campbell said of the piece shown on Foreign Correspondent last night. ''The downside is unfortunately I can never go back to Thailand.''

The Sydney Morning Herald added that ABC's Bangkok bureau has been closed for up to two weeks for security reasons, as a result of the report.

The report, which comes after more than a month of violent anti-government protests, focused on problems inside the royal family - namely the succession from a revered king to his son. ''The succession has been in the background of all the recent conflicts,'' Campbell said. ''In the last four years there's been extreme efforts to stifle any dissent.''

The program played infamous YouTube footage of Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn which I will not describe here.

The program also spoke to three people impacted by lese majeste charges or with family members sentenced to jail.

The Aussie reported has previously been arrested in Serbia and threatened with expulsion from China, but said he does not seek out this kind of legal conflict.

''I've always taken the view that your first duty is to the story. You live with the consequences or you go and work for Getaway.''

The president of the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand, Marwaan Macan-Markar, said Mr Campbell was unlikely to receive a working visa in Thailand. But he doubted the country would pursue a prosecution or that the ABC would he harassed by the government in Bangkok.

Don't be too surprised if the Foreign Ministry does not at least summons the Australian Ambassador to Thailand to remind him of the importance of their bilateral ties.
 

The Propaganda War

13 April 2010

At lunch today I was told that the reds started it. No evidence was presented to support this claim.

The reds were heavily armed I was told. No evidence. I read it in an email I was told.

These are very smart Thais, living overseas. But their choice of sources for balanced news reporting is bizarre.

The government media and anti-red shirt blogs are desperately seeking for armed red shirts. It seems that finding a few red shirt shooters somehow outweighs the fire power of a huge, well-armed and well protected army.

Many of the yellow-shirt related blogs have been full of conspiracies, stories about a third hand and calls for a tough government crack down against the hated red shirts. The op-ed below from the Nation is a blood thirsty, sometime bizarre indication of how extreme people think.

The propaganda battle continues.

The government is offering a particular conspiracy theory of “terrorists” bent on bringing down the monarchy. Under the headline “Thaksin’s red shirts upgrade campaign to terrorism,” Sopon (in the Nation) has immediately supported Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s position. He then states: “Among the crazed red shirts were men armed with weapons such as M16 and AK47 assault rifles, M79 grenade launchers and hand grenades. Their targets were the soldiers.”

The evidence for these claims is still very thin. There must have been armed people amongst the red shirts, but most international media images show a heavily armed army facing people using sticks and rocks.

The authorities were heavily armed but Sopon makes it sound like they weren’t: “It was a lop-sided battle from the start.” His own story is illogical: he says the “soldiers were instructed by their commanding officers not to use firearms except to defend themselves.” But when they are attacked with weapons that appear to be war weapons, he says they don’t fight back, because there are no “secure positions.” He ignores the facts: the majority of casualties were sustained by the red shirts; including 16 deaths.

Does Sopon represent the Nation. Does he represent many in the military and in control in Bangkok. If so he seems to want a frenzy of hatred.

He says that the “red-shirt leaders have lived up to their vow. They intend to upgrade their fight into a free-for-all against government forces. Terrorism has become their means to achieve victory.  But all of the autopsies done so far are suggesting that the red shirts killed were shot with high-powered weapons that the military uses.

Sopon blames the government  for not being tough enough. He wants the red shirts leaders imprisoned and the keys thrown away; for him they are traitors. His view may indeed be widely held. But it will do nothing for peace in Thailand.

Sopon continues to describe the reds as menacing, spoiling for blood, and will react with senseless brutality if provoked. Yet even Abhisit yesterday commented that the red shirt rallies have been, until the past few days, wholly good-natured.

The red shirts says Sopon "remind many people of thugs in Sierra Leone, Rwanda and Somalia". Most Thais would not know where these countries are of the conflicts they have suffered. Expecting more attacks on “government premises,” Sopon says this amounts to “full-blown treason with terrorism.”

Sopon essentially calls for blood: “Prime Minister Abhisit has a few choices left. If he wants to survive this snowballing terror, he must delegate authority to the military to take action and deal with the red shirts by whatever means to restore law and order, with martial law as the last resort.” Whatever means necessary because the whole establishment is threatened: “The national institutions, especially the monarchy, face real peril.” This is a call for the yellow shirts, the right-wing, the military and the establishment to unite and defeat the evil red shirts and their gullible, paid supporters. It is a call for war, for class war. Very scary indeed.

But read this alongside Kasit's nutty comments in Washington and you realise how the rhetoric is being stepped up and that there is significant pressure for a bloody crack down on the reds and its leaders. Despite the calm of Sonkran it remains a dangerous time.

The yellow side of the propaganda war

13 April 2010  - Sopon Onkgara in The Nation

This is the latest rabid offering from Sopon in The Nation refered to above. It is a shocking read. Not for its content. But for its total lack of balance in what is supposed to be an objective English language newspaper. If this is what is in the Nation I hate to think what is in some of the Thai papers. Scary. hate mongering. Nothing to do with news reporting and without supporting evidence; for instance ref Thaksin's sickness. If he has anything it is probably the flu bug that almost everyone has in Dubai now.

"It was a bitter night for all Thais on Saturday night. On Rajdamnoen Avenue and in nearby areas troops in anti-riot gear tried to disperse the red shirts who were armed with sticks, stones and bottles. When the clashes started, they became ugly urban warfare bordering on full-blown rebellion. Or was it?

As skirmishes continued, horror ensued. Among the crazed red shirts were men armed with weapons such as M16 and AK47 assault rifles, M79 grenade launchers and hand grenades. Their targets were the soldiers.

It was a lop-sided battle from the start. The soldiers were instructed by their commanding officers not to use firearms except to defend themselves. They got no chance as live bullets and grenades flew towards them, and they started to fall like ten-pins. Blood flowed in the streets as soldiers tried to drag their comrades to secure positions. There were none.

The red-shirt leaders have lived up to their vow. They intend to upgrade their fight into a free-for-all against government forces. Terrorism has become their means to achieve victory. No more attempts to hide the hidden agenda under false claims of peace and "ahimsa".

The urban terrorists who attacked with lethal weapons had long been expected to show their menace once confrontation with government troops occurred. They chose the time well, right after dusk, when they covered their heads with hoods and selected their targets with minimal discrimination.

It was a miscalculation on the part of the soldiers, who got direct orders from politicians with no battle experience. It was wrong from the beginning when Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, in charge of security affairs, took command of operations instead of delegating the task to a commanding general.

This was not the first failure by Suthep. His errors in judgement are numerous and his overconfidence knows no bounds. Worse, he refused to learn the costly lesson of the red-shirt riot last April when Bangkok was turned into a battle zone.

After peace was restored, instead of taking tough legal action against the ringleaders and preventive measures such as an active media campaign to educate the gullible victims of propaganda (and money distributed by the cronies of Thaksin Shinawatra) the government did virtually nothing until the revival of the red shirts.

Ironically, the ringleaders in their current acts of high treason are the same ones who incited the previous riot following many days of tirades in front of Government House. They have become bolder, more prepared, as we witnessed on Saturday.

The red shirts have become a real force of terror in the city this year. They roam the streets on motorcycles, in pickup trucks and other vehicles including taxis and tuk-tuks. They are menacing, spoiling for blood, and will react with senseless brutality if provoked. As of Sunday, there were 20 dead, including four soldiers, while the number of injured was in the hundreds. Among those killed was a military colonel.

The red shirts remind many people of thugs in Sierra Leone, Rwanda and Somalia. They are a brute force. TV viewers saw groups of red shirts running after a pickup truck carrying wounded soldiers. When they caught up, they beat the victims without mercy, then went on to search hospital wards for more victims to exact senseless revenge. Such inhumane and cruel acts were once so un-Thai. Not anymore. They are bloodthirsty political thugs, paid well to serve masters who are crooks seeking political power.

During the entire crisis, the chiefs of the armed forces and the defence minister appeared on TV only once, with Prime Minister Abhisit. None of them made public comments about their plans. It was total indifference, if not ignorance, towards a crisis which is threatening to lead the country into anarchy. None offered to take responsibility for the failure and fatalities.

The fate of the country hangs in the balance, with more rallies and attacks on government premises likely. This is full-blown treason with terrorism. The damage so far has yet to be calculated, but is certainly in the billions of baht.

Prime Minister Abhisit has a few choices left. If he wants to survive this snowballing terror, he must delegate authority to the military to take action and deal with the red shirts by whatever means to restore law and order, with martial law as the last resort. Already the red-shirt leaders are wanted under arrest warrants issued by the court.

Like it or not, Abhisit should know that time is running out for him in this critical challenge. The national institutions, especially the monarchy, face real peril. Thaksin, bed-ridden with serious illness, shed crocodile tears in Dubai over the dead in the street battles, but failed to hide his euphoric mood.

It is the ultimate duty of all Thais to keep this fugitive criminal living with more delusions of grandeur in the desert."
 

Thai Expectations

13 April 2010 - International Heroald Tribune Op-ed.

"The chaos and bloodshed that erupted on Bangkok streets is a brutal reminder of the law of unintended consequences. The 2006 military coup that deposed the elected prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and subsequent use of the courts to keep his allies out of power, have raised a specter more dangerous to entrenched interests than Thaksin ever was.

The longer this confrontation between red shirts and the military-backed government continues, the less important will be Thaksin’s own role as opposition leader-in-exile and the more powerful genuinely radical forces will become. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s departure is now likely, which should calm the situation in the short term, but some of the conditions for the rise of leftist demagoguery or Peronist-style rightist populism clearly exist. Thailand is in uncharted territory and analysis of the many past coups and confrontations provide little guide to the future.

Thaksin was an astute billionaire who abused the power that his party’s dominance in Parliament gave him. But his pro-poor spending won him popular support without being fiscally irresponsible or undermining Thailand’s tradition of open markets and private capital. Many of today’s class-warrior red shirts have scant regard for Thaksin but are riding on his supporters’ backs toward what they hope is more radical change than he espouses.

Once the red shirts were viewed by their opponents as a Thaksin-financed rabble of rural poor. But the evidence in recent days is that they enjoy the sympathy of large numbers of Bangkok’s own lower-income groups — taxi-drivers, street vendors, security guards and construction workers. Even those most inconvenienced by the demonstrations, the tens of thousands dependent on tourism and other disrupted businesses, are not all on the side of law and order.

The legacy of the demonstrations will be lasting. Even the military top brass is not sure of where it now stands, with some urging compromise on all sides to avoid more bloodshed, which would test the loyalty of the rank and file, many of whom are considered sympathetic to the red shirts. Other state institutions, notably the courts, have also come to be widely seen as politically motivated.

Enough Thais have been shocked by the score of recent deaths that compromise will most likely win out in a society where politics is more opportunistic than ideological. The Thai economy is built more on small farms and businesses rather than great estates or industrial combines. But compromise will have to recognize the rising expectations of low-income groups, not only for more equitable income distribution, but also for greater political representation.

Expectations have been fed by Thaksin’s rhetoric and by Thailand’s lively media. Economic fundamentals too now favor the poor. After three decades of low birth rates, Thailand has little growth in its workforce, so the bargaining power of lower-income groups is increasing. Bangkok’s middle class now has to rely on maids from Myanmar to cook and clean. Income distribution is actually no worse than the average in developing Asia — and better than in neighboring countries like Malaysia and China. Moreover, the Thai economy has been growing steadily. But in Thailand’s open and homogenous society expectations have been growing faster. They must now be satisfied."

Threats from MICT

13 April 2010 National News Bureau of Thailand - Public Relations Department

Most Public Relations Departments seek to win friends - not alienate them. Not the Thai National News Bureau.

"The Ministry of Information and Communication Technology has now been strictly curbing all defamatory internet contents that likely pose serious threat to national security with an aim of preventing further division in the society.

Permanent Secretary for Information and Communication Technology Sue Loruthai said that the Ministry had been instructed to take a close watch and curb all allegedly defamatory internet contents which possibly instigate the hatred of the people and might cause further conflict in society.

Meanwhile, the internet users have been warned to use the internet in the right way or with appropriate purpose and avoid disseminating information that could create misunderstanding or instigate violent actions among the public. Also, all popular websites and social networks such as facebook, twitter, hi5 and my space will be under thorough watch.

Violators will be prosecuted by law with no compromise."

Kasit's inflammatory nonsense

13 April 2010

In 2008 the current Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya was on the stage at the PAD occupation of Bangkok's international airport. He subsequently described the airport closures as a lot of fun.

He is now accusing ex PM Thaksin of being a bloody terrorist and drawing comparisons to Hitler. Kasit must be the worst person from the current government to be commenting on the morality of civil disobedience?

And then he wonders why international governments do not take the Thai government seriously.

Maybe because no government recognizes the charges from the current Thai government as being legitimate. Few governments are willing to allow military generals to convict politicians so easily without raising very large question marks over "supporting evidence."

The coup was wrong. The Yellows then went too far in their anti-Thaksin campaign. Instead of killing all his support they turn him into some sort of hero for democracy. Crazy. Thaksin is no hero. He is bad news and whatever does happen we should all hope that he does not return to Thailand in any political role. The country has to move forward and not back.

Arresting Thaksin and bringing him back to Thailand is not the answer. All of the deep divisions, political and socio-economic between the Thai people will not just go away. The red shirts are politically awakened and they want change not the status quo. Thailand is never going to be the same.

The risk is now or yellow backed coup and the implementation of "New Politics" where the Thai people cannot vote for the majority control of the government which will be run by an appointed elite. The argument will be that politics has failed.

Did politics fail or was in never allowed to succeed?

Thai FM slams international community over crisis

12 April 2010 - AFP

"Thailand's foreign minister lashed out at the global community Monday for failing to take action against fugitive ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, whom he blamed for the country's deadly political violence.

"Everyone is washing their hands but he is a bloody terrorist," said Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya in unusually blunt language, citing nations such as Russia and Germany for turning a blind eye over Thaksin's graft conviction and allowing him in.

He also cited Dubai, which the billionaire Thaksin had reportedly used as a longtime base after being overthrown in a military coup in 2006, as well as Nicaragua and Montenegro, both of which he recently visited.

"There is this act of interference by third countries -- how can the Russians allow him there for two days or the Germans before that?"

"Everyone is playing naive, closing their eyes and so on, simply because he was once an elected leader," Kasit said.

He likened Thaksin to an Al-Qaeda terrorist and past "elected" leaders such as Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin and Benito Mussolini.

"Hitler was elected, Mussolini was elected, even Stalin could say that he was elected also but what did they do to their very society? This is the question," the top Thai diplomat said at a meeting with a small group of reporters and think-tank heads.

Kasit, in Washington attending a landmark nuclear summit called by President Barack Obama, accused Thaksin of orchestrating demonstrations by his so-called Red Shirt supporters last week that led to 21 deaths in the bloodiest political unrest in 18 years.

Thaksin, 60, exiled himself to avoid imprisonment on a 2008 corruption conviction and occasionally addressed the Red Shirts through Internet video links.

In a second US statement of concern on the Thai crisis in two days, Obama and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Monday they were "deeply saddened" by the deadly violence grappling the Southeast Asian nation.

The United States and Thailand are treaty allies.

Washington renewed its "call for both the opposition and the government to return to the negotiating table and to seek agreement on a way forward that strengthens your democracy and the rule of law," Clinton said.

"The challenges you are facing cannot be resolved by force, but only by dialogue. We believe firmly that a negotiated solution is possible."

Kasit lamented that Thailand was "not getting any international cooperation at all" over Thaksin's case, saying even Interpol "just simply refused to work with us."

He blamed the ousted premier for using extralegal means to topple Thailand's current democratically elected administration.

The Red Shirts charge that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's current government is illegitimate because it came to power in 2008 after a court ousted Thaksin allies from their positions.

Thailand deputy premier Trirong Suwannakiri, who was also at the Washington forum, warned that if the current crisis raged out of control, the military could stage a coup to restore order.

Kasit said any negotiated resolution to the turmoil might see the role of the revered monarchy revamped with greater involvement in the political process of the impoverished rural poor, who are up in arms against the nation's military-backed government.

"It is a process we have to go through and we should be brave enough to talk about even the taboo subject of the institution of monarchy."

The monarchy's role in Thailand's recent political upheaval remains one of the most sensitive subjects in the kingdom.

The Thai crisis took a new twist Monday as Thailand's election body called for the dissolution of the ruling party, piling pressure on embattled Prime Minister Abhisit.

The move centers on allegations of an illegal multimillion-dollar donation to the Democrat Party during 2005 elections."

Red with bloodshed
The army has further weakened the Thai government by shooting protesters

12 April 2010 - The Economist

It was the bloody showdown that many Thais had feared was coming. On the night of April 10th, the war of attrition between a shaky government and its red-shirted protesters became an all-out shooting war, briefly but with lethal consequences. At least 21 people died in the worst political violence Bangkok has seen since May 1992, when combat troops fired on demonstrators on the exact same streets. This time several hundred were injured, some seriously.

The government and the protesters each accuse the other of starting the firefight and neither is minded to compromise. But a negotiated settlement that includes the promise of fresh elections—in exchange for some withdrawal by the protesters—seems the only way the cycle of violence might be stopped.

For the past month, demonstrators dressed in red and waving red banners have occupied a symbolic swath of Bangkok’s old city. The “red shirts” have succeeded in whipping up public support for their drive to force an early election. But the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, who will face elections next year, has not buckled. While the protests themselves had been peaceful, the capital was shaken by a string of unsolved bombings: small explosions that did not kill anyone.

On April 7th, when protesters seized a second site, in a posh shopping area, and then briefly invaded Parliament, Mr Abhisit found a pretext to declare a state of emergency in Bangkok and the surrounding provinces. For two days, the emergency was in name only. Red shirts were encouraged by signs of divided loyalties among rank-and-file security forces on the streets, whose working-class and rural backgrounds mirror those of the protesters.

Finally, on the afternoon of April 10th, the army began to advance along the tree-lined streets that lead to the red shirts’ main encampment, on one of the city’s canal bridges, below a watchtower. In their initial skirmishes, troops used rubber bullets and tear gas against the protesters, whose numbers swelled later in the day as reinforcements arrived by car and motorbike. As the sun sank low, a queasy calm prevailed. Riot troops slumped by their shields. In a surreal turn, an army negotiator used a loudspeaker to play soothing disco classics—and even John Lennon’s “Imagine”—to the becalmed protesters.

What happened next is unclear, and hotly disputed. Government and military officers say that troops came under fire as they were retreating along narrow streets near Bangkok’s backpacker hub. When they returned fire they provoked a furious response from protesters on the other side of the barricades. The battle lasted only an hour or so. But the casualties came in thick and fast, as did the ambulances that carried them away. Some soldiers fired live rounds into the air and, it seems, towards the crowds in the darkened streets.

Red-shirt leaders say the army committed a massacre. Those red shirts that were armed bore only rocks and sharpened sticks. One confusing element is that the rogue firepower appeared to consist of a number of black-clad men who emerged from the shadows bearing assault rifles and explosives. Similar agents provocateurs played walk-on roles in May 1992 and in other eruptions of violence in Bangkok. Your correspondent watched a gunman step into a street where red shirts had taken cover and calmly aim a burst of automatic fire towards the army lines. On a parallel street, protesters overran a column of armoured personnel carriers; the crewmen were captured and later paraded on a rally stage. So were the corpses of two protesters, martyrs to a cause that has shaken Thailand to its conservative core.

That the military operation was botched seems beyond dispute. The army lost four of its men and an alarming amount of equipment while failing to disperse the protest. Instead it exacerbated an intractable social and ideological conflict.

Mr Abhisit’s political career may be over, but it would be better for Thailand for him to stay on, for now, and drag protest leaders back to the negotiating table. The provision of a timetable for new elections, of three months or so, is essential. The red-shirt protests must be brought to a halt and some kind of peace must be brought to the streets of Bangkok. Mr Abhisit’s coalition has so far resisted. The alternative—an even more bloody military assault—would tip Thailand further towards chaos.

Is this a very Thai solution?

12 April 2010

The Election Commission told a press conference today that it voted 4:1 to request the Constitution Court's order to dissolve the Democrat Party.

The rules say party executives, like Abhisit and all, will be banned from politics for 5 yrs if their party is dissolved "for corruption".

The party was accused of having unlawfully obtained donations from TPI Polene.

In the next step, the EC will pass on the case to the Office of the Attorney-General to consider before sending the case to the Constitution Court.

Now will the court uphold the dissolution of the Democrats? If they do will they ban all executives for 5 years? They did this to Thaksin's TRT and Samak's PPP parties

How will the PAD react then?

Democrat spokesman Buranachai expressed his confidence that the party could prove its innocence during trial by Constitution Court.

This might force an election; but it is probably a slow process.

In the interim there are rumours that previous PM Chuan Leekpai may once again become PM? "Why Chuan?" He is not a Democrat Party executive; so the theory is he would not be banned even if the court dissolves the Democrat party.

The Election Commission's decision dealt a severe blow on the Democrat Party. The red shirts at the Ratchaprasong intersection, roared with joy on hearing the news from their leader Veera Musikhapong, who said he hoped the case would be proceeded quickly.

Thousands of UDD's red shirts on April 5 converged on the EC headquarters on Chaeng Wattana road and accused the commission of the dragging the case against the Democrat Party. Bowing to the UDD's demand, the EC said it would come up with a decision by April 20.

After today's decision, the EC will forward its decision to the Office of the Attorney General. The OAG will then has 30 days to decide the case. If the OAG's decision contradicts that of the EC, a joint committee would be set up to consider the case. If the OAG agrees with the EC, it will refer the case to the Constitution Court for a final decision.

The Democrat Party has been accused of receiving more than 258 million baht in illegal donations from TPI Polene for use in the 2005 general election without declaring it. The party was also accused of misusing the Politics Development Fund worth 29 million baht.

TPI Polene, a cement firm, was alleged to have made donations totalling 258 million baht to the Democrats through Messiah Business and Creation Co, an advertising company.

The party faces dissolution and its executives could be banned from politics for five years if it is found guilty by the Constitution Court of illegally receiving the donation.

Dubai’s $330 Billion of Deferred Building Imposes Investor Fees

April 11, 2010,  Businessweek/Bloomberg

"Silvia Turrin paid two-thirds of the $520,000 purchase price of her Dubai apartment, only to learn that it won’t be finished until 2012, two years late. When she stopped payments to Emaar Properties PJSC, the developer hit her with late fees.

“We feel hopeless and we’re running out of options,” said Turrin, one of about 400 buyers in two nonexistent towers called 29 Boulevard. “It’s almost like we don’t have any rights.”

Developers in Dubai are demanding that buyers like Turrin keep paying for homes that in some cases haven’t even been started. Builders in the emirate have delayed or canceled projects worth about $331 billion, Dubai-based market researcher Proleads estimates. The best performing real estate market in the world collapsed in 2008 after credit dried up, sparking defaults and forcing writedowns of land and property values.

Emaar, the United Arab Emirates’ biggest developer, isn’t the only one dealing with disgruntled buyers. About 30 filed a claim against Union Properties PJSC at the Judicial Authority at Dubai International Financial Center, saying it breached contracts by failing to deliver apartments on time. Nakheel PJSC, the creator of palm tree-shaped islands off Dubai’s coast, said it’s assessing which projects will be halted.

“There is a growing distrust between developers and customers,” said Chet Riley, a Dubai-based analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. “Customers don’t want to pay because they can’t see the development being completed and developers can’t continue building because customers are not paying.”

Confidence Blow

Disputes between buyers and builders are eroding confidence and discouraging new investors needed to spark a recovery, Riley said. Dubai and its state-controlled companies amassed $109 billion in debt to turn the Persian Gulf city state into a financial center and tourist destination as oil reserves dwindled. Neighboring emirate Abu Dhabi provided about $25 billion in financial lifelines last year.

Buyers in Emaar’s 29 Boulevard were notified of the two- year construction delay in February, just before the original completion date for the two 45-story towers. Most have paid 30 percent to 65 percent of the purchase price, according to Mehdi Nosratlu, who heads a group of investors negotiating with Emaar. The site remains a walled-off hole in the ground with idle cranes hovering above.

Emaar, among the first companies to allow buyers to swap for different units, said in a March 18 statement that it’s offering customers flexible payments on an individual basis and has informed buyers about negotiations with contractors to lower construction costs. It didn’t respond to a further request for comment. Nakheel said it’s offering alternative properties and new financing terms to investors in stalled projects. Union Properties said in a March 29 statement that it isn’t in breach of any contracts.

The Peak

Dubai real estate prices were rising at the fastest rate in the world in 2008, allowing investors to profit by buying and re-selling properties -- often before a single brick was laid. Customers stood in long lines to sign contracts for the yet-to- be-built houses and apartments that accounted for about 90 percent of the market, according to Elaine Jones, chief executive officer of Dubai-based property manager Asteco.

At the time, real estate, business services and construction accounted for 24 percent of the Dubai’s nominal gross domestic product, according to government statistics. If building materials and financing are included, the figure was about 40 percent, said Nabil Ahmed, an analyst at Deutsche Bank.

The credit crisis put an end to all that. Emaar’s profit fell to 327 million dirhams ($89 million) last year from 6.58 billion dirhams in 2007, as revenue declined by more than half and the value of its properties fell. Nakheel, owned by state holding company Dubai world, has struggled with 73.3 billion dirhams of liabilities, including term loans of 16.3 billion dirhams, according to its first-half earnings report.

Little Power

Buyers soon found they had little power to recover their investments when work stalled or force developers to finish projects or offer alternatives of equal value. While negotiations have resolved some of the disputes, customers who aren’t satisfied with the developer’s offer face a long battle through an untested arbitration process and the courts.

“There have only been a few actual decisions made,” said Ashley Painter, a partner at Dubai-based law firm Clyde & Co. “The property court won’t take on a case unless it’s been through mediation and then the whole thing grinds to a halt.”

Most of the laws and regulatory bodies dealing with real estate contracts have only been created in the past two or three years and haven’t been able to cope with the sudden flood of disputes, lawyers and property buyers say.

Regulations Emerge

The Real Estate Regulatory Agency, or RERA, was set up in 2007 to license and govern the market. A real estate court was also created to rule on disputes that aren’t resolved by the Dubai Land Department’s mediation center. RERA put in place laws that tie customers’ payments to the progress in construction.

“Gradually, Dubai has been passing its real estate laws and regulations,” said Lisa Dale, a partner in the Dubai-based law firm Al Tamimi & Co. “However, further resources need to be dedicated to implementing these laws fully and evenly everywhere.”

Turrin, a 32-year-old property consultant, has been paying for a two-bedroom apartment on the fourth floor of Tower 1 at 29 Boulevard since 2007. She said Emaar offered her a 5 percent discount in return for signing a new contract with a later completion date or an alternative apartment in the Loft or Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest skyscraper, at double the price.

Obtaining a document from RERA supporting her right to withhold additional payments to Emaar didn’t stop the company from charging her 14,623 dirhams in late fees, Turrin said.

Enforcement

“We can enforce linking payment to the progress of construction, but only the Real Estate court can cancel contracts,” RERA Chief Executive Marwan Bin Ghalita said. “Why did investors pay up to 65 percent before any construction was done? The law has been out there for two years.”

Investors hurt themselves by signing contracts that were ambiguous and usually favored the developer, Clyde & Co.’s Painter said. Some didn’t even include completion dates and others failed to define the buyer’s rights if a project should stall.

“Two years ago, many of those same customers were throwing checks over the rails at developers,” said Nomura’s Riley. “In effect, there was no paperwork or anything. A lot of buyers who decided to enter the market had no intention, capacity or capability to complete on the purchase.”

Wherever the fault lies, Dubai’s government can’t afford to leave the conflicts unresolved if it wants to restore confidence and bring investors back into the real estate market, he said.

Government Pressure

Dubai pledged to take direct control of Nakheel last month, providing $8 billion in cash and saying it will help buyers of stalled projects to swap their properties for units in developments nearing completion or receive credit for money already paid. It may also offer revised payment plans.

“There is pressure from the government to improve service and treat investors fairly because Dubai needs them for the long term,” said Majed Azzam, an analyst at Al-Futtaim HC Securities in Dubai.

Nakheel had to make a deal with buyers or face “massive defaults,” said Saud Masud, head of Middle Eastern research at UBS AG in Dubai. Buyers may not get units without additional cost and will still have to deal with negative equity, falling prices and maintenance expenses, he said.

“Nakheel will continue to assist customers in longer-term projects in their consolidation or swapping process to find an alternative investment in an active development if they so choose,” the company said in a statement on April 8.

Off-Plan Dead

New buyers in Dubai won’t be forced to choose between unfinished developments because companies built more properties than they could sell in the last several years. Off-plan sales accounted for the majority of transactions after the property market was opened to foreigners in 2002, Asteco CEO Jones said.

Today, off-plan buying is “effectively dead” and isn’t likely to be revived anytime soon, Riley said.

After finding that they own unfinished properties that are worth less than they owe on mortgages, many buyers just want to get out, RERA’s Bin Ghalita said. While the regulator can protect buyers’ rights, “people have to take responsibility for their investment decisions,” he said."
 

Is this the end for Thailand's Abhisit?

12 April 2010 - Asia Sentinel

"The government loses its legitimacy in the midst of flying bullets

The full scale of Thailand’s slow implosion from its deep and protracted political conflict is revealed in Bangkok’s current collapse. That it again happened at a time when Thais traditionally come together to celebrate the Songkrang New Year festival underscores the futility of compromise.

At the Klang General Hospital where I was soon after the violence erupted on Saturday evening, body after body was brought in, a few draped in the Thai flag. One victim had his head blown off. A medic held his mushy brains in a plastic bag followed the body as it was wheeled into the emergency room.

Dr. Pijaya Nagavajara, the director of the hospital, told, “The first dead case was around 7 pm. Severe head injury. Fractured skull that exposed the brains. And the patient was dead before arrival. After that we saw many gunshot wounds. Rubber bullets and real bullets. The severe head injury cases could be due to being hit by a hard object or high velocity.

“I expected (to see) rubber bullets but I don’t know why there were real bullets,” Nagavaraja said.

The Thai government and the Red Shirts who represent Thailand’s disenfranchised rural grassroots (and deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra) have both been insincere and unable to break the country’s stalemate over whether new elections should be held to return the mandate to the people. Thailand now has little choice but to take that step.

The alternatives are not attractive: further bloodshed, another military coup (Thailand has had 18) though the security forces are in disarray or royal intervention. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest reigning monarch, however, is frail and has been hospitalized since September.

New elections will not solve Thailand’s complex problems but they would go a long way to cool temperatures in a country that has also been burning under an unusual spell of drought. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva, has got to go, and the sooner the better for the mess that he has wrought. Moreover, a caretaker leader to manage the nation’s affairs in the interim is not without precedent in Thai history. In times of crisis, leaders emerge and Thailand is not short of moderate, respected and competent figures.

Abhisit’s establishment defenders argue he should be given credit for allowing the Red Shirts to exercise their basic right of assembly even though militants within their ranks tried during last year’s melee in Pattaya to lynch him. They say he did not use force until he absolutely had to enforce the law and prevent Thailand’s rapid slide into a failed state.

They say the question of Abhisit’s legitimacy – a sore point with the Red Shirts who view him as a military appointee – is overblown. Under Thailand ’s parliamentary democracy, Abhisit’s defenders say he is as legitimate as George W. Bush was following his disputed 2000 victory in the US because the rules of the game have to be respected (as if Thailand had rules).

They note that even though Britain’s Gordon Brown has also faced similar pressures to quit, Brown called for elections when it was appropriate as was his prerogative. Abhisit, they add, is a professional politician who has been elected to parliament many times in previous elections. Abhisit, now 46, has been in politics since he was 27.

And yet Abhisit has to take responsibility for the bloodbath, the worst violence in two decades. Anyone who has lived here and knows Thailand and its famed hospitality will tell you the country has been abnormal even since the Yellow Shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy or PAD seized the international airport in 2008, propelling Abhisit into power. Thaksin, who was ousted in a coup in 2006, was no role model either when he was in power but the Thai elite has been in a dogged state of denial about the new Thailand, that is until the takeover of their favorite shopping belt last week opened their eyes to the masses who want their voices heard and their votes to count.

For example, two days before a top court in Bangkok was scheduled to hand down a controversial verdict on the fugitive Thaksin and his assets that the state has now seized, a Thai state television channel beamed prime-time pictures of Abhisit displaying his Government House office at a time when most Thais hunkered down in their homes fearing anarchy. Abhisit gamely posed for the camera.

Government Spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn claimed many Thais want to see the prime minister’s office, which they’ve never had a chance to see before. The disconnect between the official perception of a looming threat by the Red Shirts and reality was telling.

Apirak Wanasathop, an independent consultant who witnessed the Oct. 14, 1973 riots led by students and the urban middle class, insists the Thai political environment is now much more developed. “The base is different and the masses are more mature. (These protestors) are not just from the rural areas but they are also workers and Internet users in the city,” he said. Apirak reckons if the Red Shirts are forced to go underground, the situation will get worse. Only international pressure, he says, will make Abhisit resign.

Suranand Vejajjiva, Abhisit’s cousin who served in the Thaksin administration, says politics in Thailand will never be the same again, something he says his cousin fails to grasp. Many analysts discuss Thai politics in terms of before and after the current king. And the first major salvo has been fired in Thailand ’s anguished struggle with succession issues that ultimately underpin the conflict.

Most of all, Abhisit has to go. It was his Democrat Party that boycotted the 2006 snap polls called by Thaksin, paving the way for the coup. Draconian lese majeste laws in the country have been applied arbitrarily under Abhisit’s reign just as emergency powers allow the military too much discretionary power. The result is clear to see."

Haseenah Koyakutty is a freelance Southeast Asia correspondent based in Bangkok.
 

Thailand update 12 April 2010

Reuters TV cameraman's chilling last picture show - no pictures but a graphic description of the chaos filmed by Reuters cameraman Hiro Muramoto just before he was shot to death.

Reuters TV - remembering Hiro Muaramoto. Tribute and content from his last reporting.

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Front page of nationmultimedia.com today - guess the spell check was not working!

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Abhisit and Suthep both spoke to the press and public this morning - both had no intention of quitting and were pointing blame at an unknown third party. There is a plan here I think: Govt thinks red numbers will fall during Songkran (Water Festival) & then perhaps the army can force out what's left.

Pointing the finger: Deputy PM Suthep, Defence Minister Prawit, Army Chief Gen Anupong said in press conference terrorists fired at red-shirt protesters on Saturday.
DPM Suthep: CRES crisis centre unprepared for unidentified group mingling with protesters and soldiers to attack both sides
 

PM Abhisit said: "There has been a group of terrorists who exploited the rally, leading to the tragic situation."  He said the government would further investigate to get a clearer picture of what happens and let the public know the results. He blamed terrorist infiltration that turned the situation bloody and said "a committee will be set up to investigate the incident."

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Meanwhile the army position appeared rather different. Anupong started the day saying he will not disperse the protesters. Says it is a political problem. Later in the day Anupong has been calling for the dissolution of Parliament. I dont see how the government can survive without the army's support.

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Lets go back in history - The Nation's two people of the year in 2008 remain the root cause of many of today's problems:

"No matter who they really are - saviours, destroyers or mere betrayers - Newin Chidchob and Army chief Anupong Paochinda had two things in common in 2008. They kept everyone on edge nearly throughout the year as to where their loyalties lay, and in the end took the decisions that drastically altered the course of Thai politics, for better or worse.

It has been a year that the People's Alliance for Democracy dominated the news and very much dictated political events, and there were times we felt like the nation was rolling down a slippery slope. We had no idea where we would end up but Newin's dramatic revolt against Thaksin Shinawatra and Anupong's enigmatic combination of aloofness and secret influences have given Thailand a crucial breathing space. The semblance of normalcy that returned to the Kingdom only a few days ago, following one of the biggest roller-coasters in Thai political history, had much to do with the duo's rather unusual ways of handling and manipulating things. After Thaksin, these two men have come to the fore to represent the multiple faces of Thai politics, its good and evil and its relentless internal struggle. And for these reasons, Newin and Anupong are The Nation's Persons of the Year."

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About 100 charter flights from China to Thailand for this week's Songkran festival, the Thai traditional New Year, have been cancelled as a result of the State of Emergency in Bangkok and nearby provinces and the bloody clashes of Saturday April 10.

Only 10 charter flights remain scheduled during April 10-13, as Chinese travellers are not confident regarding Thailand’s security under the current political circumstances.

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Red-shirted protesters paraded coffins through Thailand's capital earlier today.

The red-shirted protesters and security forces clashed Saturday on the streets of Bangkok for several hours, until soldiers and police backed down, initiating an informal truce that has held since. But no broader solution is in sight.

A line of pickup trucks, motorcycles and other vehicles wound its way through the main roads of Bangkok. They carried several coffins with bodies of those killed in Saturday's violence. 

The procession started at Phan Fa Bridge, near the protester base in the historic section of Bangkok. It then drove through the modern commercial heart of the city.

UFC adds to UAE contradictions

11 April 2010

I am trying to make sense of this but not making much progress

You cannot kiss in a public place such as a Dubai restaurant. You have to dress respectfully in the malls. Raising a finger is foolish in the extreme.

But beating the crap out of someone; blood splattering everywhere; with bikini clad girls wandering around the ring holding up number boards is perfectly acceptable.

Last night the Ultimate Fight Club brought UFC 112 to Abu Dhabi.

The government owned National newspaper was exstatic; under the headline : "Unamimous Verdict - UFC a winner" the paper reported that "The action started slowly with a rather subdued boxing contest. But by night’s end, after several bloody, bruising battles, the crowd was roaring its approval as the Ultimate Fighting Championship proved a smash hit in its Middle East debut."

Breathlessly the paper says that "three Octagon girls, including crowd favourite Arianny Celeste, raised cheers from a crowd that failed to wilt as the hours passed." That is her picture on the left. In suitably appropriate dress for the UAE.

And finally The National hyperventilated that "Two rounds later, with Veach’s blood smeared over Kelly’s head and shoulders, a guillotine choke sealed victory for the Briton. Veach remained on the mat, attended to by clean-up men and doctors."

The blood splattered rise of mixed martial arts packaged and sold as entertainment is back to the days of the gladiators. Ontario, Canada, has the good sense to ban the sport.

Abu Dhabi meanwhile is helping to take UFC international through Flash Entertainment, which is owned by the Abu Dhabi government Flash bought ten percent of Zuffa LLC, the parent entity of the UFC, four months ago.

There was a live crowd of over 11,000 in Abu Dhabi The show is also sent out on pay per view globally.

But I am still mystified how conservative Abu Dhabi and the wider UAE reconciles itself to accepting the UFC package or is it all about making money.
 

flyDubai to Istanbul and Assiut

11 April 2010

flydubai, Dubai’s low cost airline, announced today that it would launch flights to Assiut in Egypt and Istanbul, Turkey to bring its total network to 15 destinations.

Priced from AED350, flights to Assiut, the largest town in upper Egypt, will be three times per week and will start on Monday May 24.

Travellers will be able to visit Istanbul, European Capital of Culture 2010, for AED450 from Thursday June 17. Flights to Istanbul will be five times per week, the airline said in a statement.

Ghaith Al Ghaith, CEO of flydubai said: “The addition of these new routes is in line with our commitment to make travel to key destinations in this region more accessible and more affordable.

“These two routes are excellent examples of the type of destinations flydubai is committed to serving. Assiut currently has very few direct links to the UAE, so by offering this destination we are fulfilling our promise to make travel a little less complex, a little less stressful and a little less expensive.

“Although Istanbul is well known to many there is such a demand for short breaks to the city and to the country in general that we anticipate strong demand for our quality, low cost service.”

The largest town in southern Egypt, Assiut is known for its agriculture, especially grain and cotton. It is also home to one of the country’s largest universities.

I suspect that the Istanbul flights may launch to Istanbul's second airport at Sabiha Gokcen; this is used by other LCCs such as Air Arabia. It is on the Asian side and about 50kms from central Istanbul. There is an airport bus to the city.

Thailand updates - 11 April 2010

International Press Service: Bloody Crackdown Exposes Battle Lines in Class War by Marwaan Macan-Markar, who is also the current President of the FCCT. Worth a read.

The Nation: Junior coalition parties have told Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to amend the charter and dissolve the House much sooner than nine months - or they would pull out of the government, sources from the parties said yesterday.

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Web comments: "Abhisit is finished. The questions now are: 1) How long it will take for him to realize it; and 2) How long it will take for the people who put him in this position to find an alternative solution. To be sure, Abhisit's payment on the deal he struck with the devil 14 months ago is now due. And, predictably, he will have to pay for it with his political career."

Alternatively: "If Abhisit gives into the request of the 'red' this opens the door for anarchy in Thailnd. It would mean, that any major group in Thailand could force a government out by protest on the street.

To avoid, the government, and that includes the army, must restore control at any price. Only after that Abhisit can be replaced, either via new elections or by stepping back and allow a new PM to be elected."

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Late night comment on Bangkok Pundit sums up the red shirts well:

"Conventional wisdom seems to be that the reds are primarily composed of the poor and downtrodden, and that the protesters are only doing this because they are being paid. This articles quotes several supporters who are running businesses, and in my personal observations gathered from where I live some 100 meters from Bangkok, many of the reds here are not poor and are not from Isaan or the North. I also have a close Chinese-Thai friend (small business owner) who lives in the Worachak area, and he told me that he is the only one among his group of close friends (he is lates 60s) that is opposed to the reds. That really surprised me. This leads me to the conclusion that support for the reds may be much broader than many suspect. As for the payment issue, I know a number of people who are very pro red, and believe me, they would probably pay to participate if it came to that. The idea that these people are simply a rent-a-crowd is wishful thinking. Disagree with their goals or their behavior, but don't delude yourself as to who and what you are dealing with. This is no longer just about Thaksin, if it ever was, it is about people who are very tired of business as usual."

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There are some good foreign journalists on twitter from Bangkok - one, Andrew Marshall noted that 6 armored personnel carriers, a truck, three Humvees destroyed & dismembered, covered in red shirt graffiti. Fighting here was ferocious.

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Deputy PM Suthep: I am sorry that I sent defenseless soldiers to fight against armed protesters. This man is delusional Someone needs to show him the footage on Jazeera/BBC/CNN etc.

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General Chaowalit Yongjaiyut plans to held a press conference tomorrow at 1pm to announce the solution to the political unrest in the country. Well that will fix everything then !!

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Thai government: Men armed with machine guns mingled with crowd during Saturday clash

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The government said 9 months. the red shirts said 15 days. To dissolve the current parliament.

They could not reach a compromise. Maybe neither wanted to. And the killings started. Has Thai society deteriorated into a "hate culture?"

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Al Jazeera - Thai political crisis turns deadly

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The Nation - on a fatal blunder. And a red victory.

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Four military officers taken by red protesters have been released, JS100 radio reports.

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The propaganda war continued this morning:

Govt spokesman Panitan on Thai TV detailed the deaths of 4 soldiers, including 1 colonel. Says 90 soldiers in "serious or critical condition."

Panitan: Thai government hopes to restore normality "in the next few days." No offered no explanation of how this might be achieved.

Panitan: "no live bullets were shot at protestors." Given the death toll and all the foreign media first hand accounts this sounds like an unlikely claim?

Panitan: We're committed that justice will be served and asked autopsy unit to investigate and examine the cause of the death last night.

Panitan: Government will bring forth facts of what happened during the clashes last night which led to violence and death in the country.

Panitan: Government is ready to prove in the court that no fatal weapon used by military side.

UDD leader Weng Tojirakarn insisted that Prime Minister Vejjajiva must dissolve the House of Representatives immediately and resign.

If these two conditions are met, the red shirts would immediately disperse.

Mr Weng added that he was glad that the army was clearly divided. He speculated that the daily violence, especially the use of M79 grenades, was carried out by a dissenting military faction opposed to the rapid rise of the Burapha Task Force faction, formerly headed by Army Chief Anupong Paojinda.

 

Spiral of violence
11 April 2010 
Nirmal Ghosh recounts Bangkok’s descent into chaos for the Straits Times

"IN BANGKOK 23:30 hrs, Saturday April 10 - Working today with some other journalists, I reached the Pan Fah bridge around 2.30pm and walked up Rajadamnoen to the Makkawan bridge. Pan Fah is where the original red shirt camp is; they have been there since early March.

All was quiet at Pan Fah. Reports of troops "moving in" and using water cannons there were all apparently bogus or deliberate disinformation. But at Makkawan in front of the UN building, soldiers were closing in from three sides and the acrid tear gas blew across milling red shirt crowds and soldiers alike under the baking sun. Vendors selling red shirt merchandise were beginning to pack their wares and began leaving as gunfire rattled down the leafy avenue.

Troops, the frontline armed only with shields and batons but others with shotguns, M16s and teargas, were advancing to clear the avenue. As they formed up and advanced a brief skirmish ensued with some gunshots and small explosions. Later I saw a 12 gauge shotgun shell on the road, probably used for rubber bullets. But red shirts also held up spent M16 shells. One red shirt, a Bangkok-resident engineer, held up the shells and screamed "all we want is an election, we have come with bare hands." There were no casualties from that clash though.

Military helicopters circled overhead. Red shirts released bunches of helium-filled red balloons to hinder them. Later a contraption firing rockets of the kind used in firework festivals, was rigged up on a truck and volleys were fired but of course were hopelessly short in range. Later there were reports of tear gas being dropped out of helicopters though I did not see any myself.

All day the situation hung in balance with even some friendly local truces. At Makkawan red shirts even formed a line at one point to protect retreating soldiers. The red shirts cheered and danced as the soldiers left. Even later in the evening near Royal Plaza, there was no real animosity between the troops and the reds of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

The army had bizarrely set up a sound truck which was blasting out '70s disco hits in an attempt to keep the mood light. When I got there they were playing Boney M's "Rasputin." A local truce was negotiated between a red shirt and the army unit commander.

But red shirts reinforced their fellow protestors in large numbers both at Ratchaprasong and at Rajadamnoen, and by nightfall it seemed inevitable that the army’s push to clear Rajadamnoen and Pan Fah, would go wrong.

The mood at Ratchaprasong where the main red shirt protest is camped was stable and even upbeat. But at Rajadamnoen in the Democracy Monument-Kao San road area, hours of standoffs and some skirmishes erupted into nasty full scale pitched battles with troops shooting directly at red shirts with both rubber and live bullets.

Red shirts fought back and after a long clash which saw petrol bombs and grenade explosions and troops firing directly at red shirts, the street near the tourist enclave of Kao San road was littered with broken glass and rubble, shoes and socks and fresh blood. Colleagues Willi Germund and Marwaan Macan-Markar saw two civilians – one of them definitely a red shirt – hit by bullets just 10 metres in front of them.

I was around the corner in Kao San road trying to file my stories in a restaurant which had been all but closed. Curious tourists filled the street as the rattle of gunfire and the occasional big explosion was heard at the bottom of the road where it turns to meet Democracy Monument.

While this battle raged with people running up and down the street outside, I tried to compose my thoughts, and had most of one story done when suddenly a squad of soldiers came charging in apparently running from the battle, and one collapsed right next to me and passed out. Two tourists and staff of the restaurant washed his face with water and carried him out. I was then told I had to leave, so I logged out and gathered my things and ran out to see two soldiers being loaded into ambulances.

I joined Willi and Marwaan after some time then, and saw fresh blood where one of the bodies had lain. The tenuously controlled situation that had prevailed through the day had disintegrated into a spiral of violence and roving riots. Red shirts and soldiers fought skirmishes virtually around every other street corner.

By evening it was also evident from that hard core elements in the reds had also armed themselves, though most remained primitively armed. One journalist said he saw an AK47 and M16 in the hands of two red shirts. There was hand to hand combat between soldiers and red shirts.

As I beat a retreat from my Internet café on Kao San and went in search of my friends, I called professor Federico Ferrara, professor at National University of Singapore and author of the recent book "Thailand Unhinged."

He said "Under any circumstances a crackdown of this kind is a huge gamble. The possibility that it will end well is off the table. My advice to Abhisit would be to pack his bags."

Earlier in the day I had met Jaran Ditta-apichai, UDD co-leader, at Ratchaprasong and he told me "If the government wins this the country will be at war. This is just a battle. And if army fails to clear Rajadamnoen then Abhisit will have to go tomorrow."

But prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva showed no sign of budging even though army chief Anupong Paochinda called a truce after the bloody clashes at Rajadamnoen Road and Kao San Raod in the Democracy Monument area. Late at night he went on TV expressing regret for the deaths but saying red shirts had started the violence.

A lot of people tonight are keeping their fingers crossed that the truce will hold.

It was a bad day for journalists. In just one afternoon at least three were injured, and one was killed – Reuters cameraman Hiroyuki Muramoto. After the truce was called we made our way to Pan Fah and met with other colleagues, many of us stunned and exhausted from being out all day and often in the line of fire. Colleagues spoke of a firefight in which it seemed as if soldiers may have even been shooting at each other. Snipers were shooting from roofs. There had been so much chaos and confusion that the details and facts quickly became hazy.

While we talked and checked whether other friends were safe, a man was led by stripped to the waist, whimpering in fear, being bashed around by red shirt guards. He seemed to have been some kind of infiltrator. Some of us ran after them to ensure that he was not lynched. He was kicked in the back and made to sit and was interrogated by one of the red shirts who seemed to be in charge of security. Meanwhile up on the stage, five soldiers who had been "arrested" were on display for the big crowd at Pan Fah.

I decided to leave then. On the way back home a short while ago I passed Lumpini Park at the top of Silom road, and saw that red shirts had put up tents there and hundreds were standing about. This was on top of the few thousand at Pan Fah and the many thousands at Ratchaprasong. The fact that the movement has only grown since April 2009, is better organised, and has been able to consistently muster tens of thousands of supporters in Bangkok – and several thousand from Bangkok itself – came as little surprise to many foreign journalists who have been closely tracking Thailand’s political conflict."

No end in sight

11 April 2010

The death toll in Bangkok is up to 19. The number injured around 800. There is no obvious end in site Maybe there will be a truce over the Songkran new year holiday

But the streets of Bangkok now resemble a war zone. The fighting has spread from to tourist areas such as Khao San Road.

Using force to clear the demonstrations was always going to be a risk. The military vowed to clear one of the protesters' main encampments by nightfall, but by last night they had failed.

Details are difficult to confirm, but videos showed chaotic scenes of fighting in streets enveloped in tear gas before the army pulled back after several hours of fighting.

The local pro government media are quick to blame the red shirts for the violence though for the most part the protesters are wielding sticks and rocks against well armed and protected riot police. Tear gas was used frequently by the soldiers, who, as well as using rubber bullets, also fired M16 assault rifles. These were meant to be fired into the air but the death toll suggests that many were fired at protestors and civilians. 

Demonstrators, who had prepared for the clashes by carrying wet towels to cover their faces against the tear gas, said last night that they now wanted the parliament dissolved at once. "We are changing our demand from dissolving parliament in 15 days to dissolving it immediately," declared the protest leader, Veera Musikapong. "And we call for Abhisit to leave the country immediately."

 Neither the Red Shirts nor the government appear ready to back down. Indeed escalation by either side may be the only way to reach an unpleasant and bloody resolution. The demonstrators appear increasingly desperate to find a way of forcing the government to dissolve parliament. The authorities are even more desperate to see the protesters dispersed.

Abhisit says the crackdown was necessary after the two days of negotiation failed. Those were not negotiations. They were made for TV pposturing with no attempt at compromise. There seem to be no neutral figures left who can mediate.

It does appear that the army is in part reluctant to use massive force against the protesters. There are red shirt sympathisers in the army ranks.

Yesterday's demonstrations in Bangkok coincided with the first protests outside of the capital. In the northern city of Chiang Mai, the hometown of Mr Thaksin, hundreds of protesters forced their way into the governor's office compound. Protest leaders made fiery speeches on a makeshift stage, calling on the government to dissolve parliament and stop the crackdown. Meanwhile, in the north-eastern town of Udon Thani, hundreds of people broke through the gates into the compound of the town hall.

Meanwhile the Nation newspaper hints that a third, dark element was at play last night without saying who that might be and what motives they might have. There remains talk of a split in the army and a possible coup; an M79 attack that killed a colonel/wounded a maj general overseeing the operations is prime cause of this rumour.

Reuters photographer dies in Bangkok riots

10 April 2010

Hiro Muramoto, a Japanese national who worked for Thomson Reuters in Tokyo, was shot in the chest and arrived at Klang Hospital without a pulse, said the hospital's director, Dr. Pichaya Nakwatchara.

"I am dreadfully saddened to have lost our colleague Hiro Muramoto in the Bangkok clashes," said David Schlesinger, Reuters Editor-in-Chief.

"Journalism can be a terribly dangerous profession as those who try to tell the world the story thrust themselves in the center of the action. The entire Reuters family will mourn this tragedy."

Muramoto had been covering fighting between troops and protesters in the Rajdumnoen Road area where soldiers opened fire with rubber bullets and tear gas, as well as live rounds into the air, in Bangkok's worst political violence in 18 years.

The hospital director said the bullet had exited his back. He did not know what kind of bullet it was.

An army spokesman said protesters were armed with guns and had been throwing petrol bombs and grenades at troops.

At least 521 people, including 64 soldiers and police, were wounded in the fighting near the Phan Fah bridge and Rajdumnoen Road in Bangkok's old quarter, a protest base near government buildings and the regional U.N. headquarters.

Four civilians and four soldiers were killed, Deputy Governor of Bangkok Malinee Sukavrejworakit said. She did not give details. Hundreds of protesters went to Klang Hospital near the last and most violent clash to seek details on casualties.

Another letter to Salwan (Mis)management

10 April 2010

Saeed Bushalat
Chief Executive Officer – Salwan LLC

10 April 2010

Dear Mr. Bushalat,

Another example of the appalling lack of management at Executive Towers is the daily Fire Alarms.

The fire alarms in Tower B usually go off between 4 and 6 times a day. Usually the alarm is cancelled in the first couple of minutes

This morning (10 April) we had a continuous fire alarm; that rang for well over 5 minutes; enough for people to move onto the fire exit stairs and start walking down the building.

The trouble with walking down the fire exit stairs is that on almost every floor below 34, there were contractors either standing around or painting the fire escape walls; so to walk down stairs you had to navigate over polythene, past paint pots and brushes and around the working team; who seemed to have no interest at all in whether the alarm was for real or not.

“Take the elevator” said one of the Al Habtoor foremen, forgetting that taking the elevator in a fire is suicidal.

As always there is no response, message or action from Idama or Salwan.

The problem you have is that one day the fire will be for real; and no one in the building will know whether this is yet another false alarm or a real incident.

There does not appear to be any sort of incident training for your staff in the building; there is no public address system to alert people to a false alarm or otherwise; there are no fire marshals; there are no fire instructions posted on any of the floors.

On a second subject it appears that Idama have now given up cleaning any of the public areas in Tower B. The elevator lobbies and corridors are dusty, dirty and littered. There are hand and footprints on the doors from the contractors. Just what are our management fees being used for ?

You have not responded to either of my two previous emails. If you are not responsible for Salwan Management then perhaps you could tell me who I should be contacting to ensure that there is effective management of this building.

Yours sincerely,

Airline merger mania in Europe and the USA

9 April 2010

In the USA United and US AIr  are in merger talks that, if successful, would create the nation’s second-biggest airline. It is the third time in a decade that they have tried to make a deal.

In Europe British Airways and Iberia have signed a deal that will establish a merged airline albeit with two brands.

There is now a name for the new holding company being set up for the merged body: International Airlines Group or, as it will inevitably become known, IAG.

Authorities and regulators in the UK and Spain have signed off on the basic structure of IAG, which will be headquartered in London; registered in Madrid; listed in both cities; and run by BA’s current chief, Willie Walsh, who will become its chief executive

BA shareholders are to receive 55 per cent of the new company and Iberia shareholders 45 per cent, or 56 per cent to 44 per cent once the tie-up is finalised and cross-shareholdings are cancelled. BA and Iberia will still exist as brands and operating companies, with their own boards, chief executives and finance directors.

It is worth noting that Ryanair has 66m passengers a year already exceeding the 58m BA and Iberia expect to carry each year if their tie-up succeeds.

Mergers in the airline industry have been difficult to pull off, in part because complex labor contracts can offset the promised cost savings. The latest combination, involving Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines, creating the USA’s largest carrier, took nearly two years to complete. One reason that merger succeeded was that Delta and Northwest negotiated a seniority plan and a new collective bargaining agreement with the pilots, enabling the two companies to integrate their operations faster and more smoothly.

Disclosure of the talks could spur other airlines, like Continental and American Airlines, to consider bidding for United or US Airways, analysts said.

The labor issue could turn out to be the biggest hurdle to overcome in any merger with United.

A combination of US Airways and United is not a natural fit. The two carriers would end up with a large number of hubs, including United’s operations in Chicago and Denver and at Washington Dulles International Airport. US Airways has hubs in Philadelphia, Phoenix and Charlotte, N.C., and has extensive operations in the Washington area, giving it a strong presence on the East Coast. It has about 34,000 employees and operates about 3,100 flights a day.

US Airways is widely viewed as the weakest of the major airlines, with few international routes. At its domestic hub in Phoenix, it competes directly with Southwest.

United, which has hubs in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago and Washington, operates about 3,300 flights a day on United and United Express. It has 46,000 employees.

Both airlines are part of the Star Alliance, the largest global airline alliance. But analysts said Continental would be a much better match for United, providing a strong management team and valuable routes to South America, as well as access to New York, where United is weak.

In Europe KLM and Air France have already merged, again with separate brands. Lufthansa owns UK based BMI.

The big prize will be the first genuine merger of a European and US carrier. Not an alliance but a single airline under common management. Forget the alliances; carriers jump from alliance to alliance as they see fit.

Thailand's new normal

9 April 2010 - Asian Wall Street Journal

"Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva put in place tools to use force if necessary against protestors in Bangkok this week, in the name of restoring normality to a city that has come to a standstill. He may succeed in returning Thailand to rule by elites—but that's not a lasting solution.

The protesters, known as the "red shirts," are comprised mostly of the rural poor who want a democratic voice. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra showered them with attention and populist handouts during his time in office, and when he was ousted in a military coup in 2006 these voters felt disenfranchised. The red shirts want Mr. Abhisit to dissolve parliament and hold new elections as soon as possible. Many have told journalists they are willing to die for their cause.

Mr. Abhisit has tried to walk a fine line between rightly asking the red shirts to refrain from disrupting the city, and offering political compromise that will satisfy both the protestors and the elites who have supported him in office. He seems genuinely interested in a peaceful solution. As evidence, the police have refrained from violence in every confrontation so far with protestors.

The trouble is that the longer Mr. Abhisit puts off addressing the protestors' real concerns, the angrier they will become. Since he became prime minister in 2008, Mr. Abhisit has mainly focused on maintaining political stability and reviving the economy. Those are worthy goals, but he has failed so far in his efforts to reform the current constitution, which was written by the military government and limits the power of elected officials. Nor did he present a timetable to call fresh elections until he was pressed to do so by the red-shirt leaders.

Now the red shirts see making trouble as their only solution. They broke into parliament Wednesday, forcing a deputy prime minister to flee by helicopter. Bangkok this week saw several grenade and homemade bomb attacks against random targets, including some military bases, though no one has yet claimed responsibility. The central shopping district has been shuttered for nearly a week because the red shirts have chosen it as a rallying point.

Mr. Abhisit, left with little choice, declared a state of emergency Wednesday. Yesterday, the government started censoring opposition media. This is important because pro-Thaksin TV and radio channels are a key tool for rallying the red shirts. It is unclear whether Mr. Thaksin's nightly videocasts to the protestors will be allowed to continue.

In the short term, Bangkok's impasse could be eased if both sides would meet in the middle. The red shirt leaders have demanded that Mr. Abhisit call elections within 15 days, and their party, Puea Thai, might do well in snap elections. Mr. Abhisit has compromised by promising to call elections by the end of this year, even though his term lasts until the end of 2011.

In the long run however Thailand will remain politically unsettled until its elites and military give the Thai people full democracy. That means Mr. Abhisit must embrace the idea that his party could lose in a popular vote. While that might not be an appealing prospect for Mr. Abhisit, that's how democracy works.

Even if Mr. Thaksin never returns to Thailand, he has set off a democracy movement that isn't going away. The sooner Bangkok realizes that, the better."

Thailand update - 9 April 2010

After a few days away it is hard to know where to start:

There is now a state of emergency in Bangkok. This gives far greater powers to the army; it also bans gatherings of more than five people.

Lets start with a reminder from the New York Times in August 2005: "Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Thursday that an executive decree giving his government sweeping powers was not "a license to kill" but a tool needed to root out violent Muslim separatists in southern Thailand.

The emergency decree, which went into effect last month, was formally approved by the upper house of Parliament Thursday amid opposition charges that it would only fuel the violence and violated basic human rights guaranteed by the country's Constitution.

The opposition assailed the decree on Wednesday as ineffective and provocative.

The opposition leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, said the emergency decree, passed by the cabinet in mid-July, opened the way for state abuses of civil liberties in its wide discretion to detain suspects and censor media.

"Press censorship made possible by the laws is against the Constitution, which says clearly that it can only be invoked under the state of war. We are definitely not in the state of war," Abhisit, of the Democrat Party, said during a debate on the decree in Parliament."

So let's see; in 2005 the current PM said press censorship can only be invoked in a state of war.

But as of today his government has banned 36 news websites. Is Thailand in a state of war? Or is it just a matter of different standards.

*************************************
Abhisit said on Thursday night that "Now that we have managed to stop disinformation and will be able to arrest the leaders, we will be in better position to persuade the protesters to end the rally"

Strange how disinformation comes from one side only. ASTV still operates. And government officials still make up their own stories.

The government has imposed a black out on the red-shirt People Channel TV station accusing the channel of spreading lies and misinformation and of inciting public hatred against the government and the elite amataya ruling clique.

And what is ASTV doing ?? Still broadcasting their anti-red venom.

Controlling the media and censoring information is one of the several actions authorised under the state of emergency rule. Other possible actions include a ban on public gatherings of more than five people, curfews and preventing people joining the red-shirt rallies - and detaining people for up to 30 days without a court warrant.

*****************************************
The grenade attacks continue - but no one knows who is beside them - and despite their best efforts the government and its controlled media have been unable to implicate the red shirt except by innuendo. Today a grenade was fired into the grounds of the Army HQ from an M79 grenade launcher landing near General Anupong Paojinda's office suite. A junior officer was slightly injured. There was a similar attack on March 14.

Police say there have been about 40 bombing incidents in Bangkok and some provinces since Feb 27. The targets include Bangkok Bank branches and a school linked to Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council.

Red-shirt protesters remain unperturbed, even defiant, despite the imposition of emergency rule. They are hoping for reinforcements from the countryside to carry on with their occupation of Ratchaprasong commercial district and Phan Fa bridge. But any groups trying to join the rally from upcountry are likely to find their way blocked by military and police forces acting under emergency rule.

*******************************************
The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has cancelled all of its Songkran activities in the wake of intensifying red shirt rallies and the state of emergency.

*******************************************
The Nation says that the government has sought court orders to close more than 9,000 different URLs.

*******************************************
The Nation this morning: " Just as he was about to be dumped by the military and coalition partners, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva staged a comeback. He invoked the emergency decree, equivalent to martial law, to deal with the red shirts. Earlier, the military and coalition partners signalled that he must dissolve Parliament in 48 hours, otherwise they would withdraw support."

This appears to have been the result of Tuesday's storming of the Parliament building by a red shirt group: The nation reports that "the parliamentarians and staff had to escape over the fence of the rear exit. Suthep and other ministers had climbed ladders before being taken away via helicopter. The script could not have been written better. The TV footage spoke a thousand words. It showed the whole world that Abhisit had lost control of the country. This was reminiscent of the yellow-shirt rallies."

***********************************************
ASTV stirring up lots of speculation about Thaksin's health. He has been quiet on twitter until today which make people wonder where he is and if he is well Suggestions are that he was having chemotherapy in a Dubai hospital. He says he is off to Saudi Arabia tomorrow.

***********************************************
MCOT is reporting that the Thai Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for 17 Red Shirt core leaders including Veera, Jatuporn, Natthawut for defying Emergency Decree, blocking Ratchaprasong

**********************************************
Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the spokesman of the Emergency Operations Command, said the EOC would summon the owners of taxis and taxi motorcyclists to be warned of possible legal actions if their vehicles are used to commit crimes.

He said the owners of the vehicles will be warned against allowing their vehicles to be used in anyway that violates the laws.

Qatar sets new visa rules

8 April 2010

British and American citizens will be among the nationals of 33 countries that will have to apply for a visa prior to arrival in Qatar, according to new rules being enacted by the emirate from May 1.

The regulations also mean that all passengers wishing to travel to Qatar for business purposes will need to have their visas arranged by a local sponsor, via the Ministry of Interior.

British nationals wishing to apply for a Qatari visa will need to provide their last three months’ bank statements, which must show the name and address of the applicant, and prove that there is at least $1,300 in the applicant’s account.

Fighters escort US jet with smoking diplomat

8 April 2010

Federal air marshals confronted a passenger who had apparently lit a cigarette in an airline lavatory on Wednesday night, leading Norad to scramble two fighter jets and a mass of law enforcement officials to meet the plane, United Flight 663, when it landed at Denver International Airport.

When Qatari diplomat Mohammed al Modadi decided to light up a cigarette toward the end of the flight from Washington, D.C., to Denver, Colorado, he probably did not anticipate that he would terrify the U.S. for thirty brief but harrowing minutes. The incident, falsely reported as an attempted terrorist attack, overtook the networks before being declared a "misunderstanding."

A federal official speaking on condition that he not be identified by name said that the passenger had gone to the bathroom to smoke a cigarette, claimed he had diplomatic immunity and made sarcastic comments that the marshals took as a threat.

“The situation here is not like the shoe bomber on Christmas,” the official said, referring to the passenger on an Amsterdam-to-Detroit flight who is charged with trying to set off a bomb in his underwear, not his shoe. Various news reports identified the man in Wednesday’s incident as a Qatari diplomat.
The plane, which left Washington at 5:33 p.m. Eastern Time, landed in Denver about 6:50 p.m. Mountain Time.

After the cockpit crew requested that the plane be met by law enforcement, The North American Aerospace Defense Command scrambled two F-16 fighters from Buckley Air Force Base, in Colorado, to intercept the plane. They escorted it for the last five minutes of its flight.

Initial reports said the passenger might have been trying to set something on fire. But several law enforcement officials said no explosive had been found on the plane. Still, the man was being questioned by the F.B.I., as were fellow passengers.A Department of Homeland Security official, speaking on background, said it appeared the man had been smoking a cigarette in the bathroom, had tried to cover it up, and then had made an “unfortunate comment.”

It would be nice to think that diplomats set the standards of behaviour. But not in this case.

NBC News reported that a half-hour before landing, the air marshal smelled smoke and confronted the man as he emerged from a bathroom. The man claimed he had been trying to set his shoes on fire, the report said.

Once the plane landed, a passenger commented that the flight attendants and pilot didn’t make any welcoming announcements. He said the aircraft sat there for about an hour. A pilot said over the intercom that " we have a situation on the plane. we need to stay here."

While new facts could yet emerge, most reports now state fairly unequivocally that the incident was a misunderstanding resulting from Modadi's smoking and the way he reacted when confronted by air marshals. Still, it's worth considering what made the initial reports so scary. Any failed terrorist attack, especially one involving U.S. airplanes, is terrifying. But the incident on flight 663 was especially so because of Modadi's status as a foreign diplomat based in Washington, D.C. Fortunately, Modadi's only crimes appear to be impatience, addiction to cigarettes, and possibly a poor sense of humor.

Modadi was escorted off the plane by the authorities.

The Qatar Embassy in Washington issued the following statement (aka denial) all in CAPS - see below. Wouldn't it be so much more credible if they said that they regretted the incident and would take appropriate action.

Instead with a claim of diplomatic immunity no action will be taken. Interesting since "foreigners" in the Middle East keep getting reminded by the locals to behave ourselves and to respect the local culture and laws. And a couple in the UAE faces jail for a late night kiss in a restaurant.

If this were an ordinary citizen he or she would be charged and in court

In all honestly I don't know which annoys me more, the elevated state of paranoia that passes for normality these days or the stupidity of anyone who provokes it.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  APRIL 7, 2010

FROM THE AMBASSADOR OF THE STATE OF QATAR TO THE UNITED STATES, H.E. ALI BIN FAHAD AL-HAJRI

PRESS REPORTS TODAY REGARDING AN INCIDENT ABOARD A COMMERCIAL FLIGHT FROM WASHINGTON, DC TO DENVER, CO INDICATE THAT A QATARI DIPLOMAT WAS DETAINED FOR SUSPICIOUS BEHAVIOR.  WE RESPECT THE NECESSITY OF SPECIAL SECURITY PRECAUTIONS INVOLVING AIR TRAVEL, BUT THIS DIPLOMAT WAS TRAVELING TO DENVER ON OFFICIAL EMBASSY BUSINESS ON MY INSTRUCTIONS, AND HE WAS CERTAINLY NOT ENGAGED IN ANY THREATENING ACTIVITY.  THE FACTS WILL REVEAL THAT THIS WAS A MISTAKE, AND WE URGE ALL CONCERNED PARTIES TO AVOID RECKLESS JUDGMENTS OR SPECULATION.
 

Pay to Pee on Ryanair

6 April 2010

Ryanair has confirmed that it is pushing ahead with its controversial scheme to charge passengers for use of toilets on its aircraft, meaning spending a penny on a flight will soon cost as much as a pound.

The no-frills airline is working with Boeing to redesign the cabin and develop coin-operated toilets on 168 of its planes.

Not content with charging passengers for use of the facilities, the airline is also looking at reducing the number of toilets on board, leaving just one available cubicle for up to 189 passengers.

To use the remaining toilet on board, passengers would be forced to part with either £1 or €1 for each visit.

Stephen McNamara, a spokesperson for the airline said that 'by charging for the toilets we are hoping to change passenger behaviour so that they use the bathroom before or after the flight.

'That will enable us to remove two out of three of the toilets and make way for at least six extra seats on board.'

The airline already charges for food and drink on board as well as leveraging a charge for credit card payments, hold luggage, online and airport check-in and high fees for luggage weighing more than 15kg.

Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary first suggested the toilet charges last year but the budget carrier appeared to backtrack on the idea.

However, the airline has confirmed its plans in its latest in-flight magazine, although Mr McNamara said the charges would not be coming in this summer.

The confirmation of further charges on board comes just as a new survey has shown that low-cost carriers are charging sky-high prices for food and drink.
Passengers pay 374 per cent more for snacks on flights than they would at the supermarket, according to statistics from price comparison site travelsupermarket.com.

Mr McNamara said on behalf of Ryanair: 'I would like to know how much Tesco are charging for flights from Barcelona to London.'

Fair enough. Most people dislike Ryanair; but people fly with them because for the most part they are cheap and get you there safely and on time.

And do you really need to use the washroom on a two hour flight?
 

A Greek Tragedy

6 April 2010

Athens feels more like a Middle Eastern city than a part of modern cosmopolitan Europe. And its economy, which is for instance 1/10 the size of the German economy, is an ill fit with modern industrialised Europe.

Greece and the other Club Med countries cleaned up their act just long enough to satisfy the EMU entrance criteria, but they have backslid since being admitted. And now the Euro zone is under pressure.

The Euro was adopted too quickly for many countries such as Greece and Spain (which had lower living costs than the other Euro countries). Devaluation is now impossible as that is not in German interests. Yet for Greece and Spain pre Euro it would have been the ideal solution to their current problems.

The expensive Euro is now creating large pockets of hardship for lower paid Europeans which is leading to increasing worker unrest with the potential to cause social upheaval (Europe has a history of this). A summer of strikes is likely.

Greece has a budget deficit before interest payments of 7.9% right now. And her economy is actually contracting right now. If it continues to contract, then a budget surplus well above 7.44% will be required just to keep total debt from increasing let alone bringing debt down.

The Greek economy is not going to magically turnaround. It is hard to imagine anything other than an ultimate debt default.

The Euro zone has been trying to support the Greek economy; but honestly does it even deserve to be supported? Should Greece be a Euro country or an EC member?

Everyone looks to Germany to prop up the European economies. But the Germans are less than enthused at propping up Greece; at last the country is less worried by historical guilt than its own national self-interest just like France or Britain.

In the meantime, in the same way that, in spite of decades of brave talk from Brussels, Europe still depends on NATO for its defence, it will now have to rely on the International Monetary Fund for its economic security, Economic and Monetary Union notwithstanding.

The EU has never really stood alone; From its beginning in 1958 it was the triumph of top-down government, the result of a series of key decisions taken in smoke-filled rooms by several generations of mostly French and German “statesmen”.

Reluctant electorates had to be persuaded across Europe that European membership was a good thing.

A Greek default could be the first of others in Europe; Portugal's economy is smaller than Greece so less of a concern. But what of Spain and Italy?

Greek politicians are committed to delivering painful budget cuts. But can they deliver. Can the Greek government stand up to the protests and strikes it is already facing on all sides as it announces where the axe will fall. The government may not even to survive.

A senior Greek politician has already given a foretaste of the possible reaction, with an attack on Germany harking back to the wartime occupation.

The underlying issues of race, history and superiority all come to the fore. The EU is based in a single central conceit that somehow the people of Europe feel the urge to unite in one nation, and that therefore Berliners feel the same responsibility and warmth towards Greeks, Italians or Britons as they do towards Bavarians or Rhinelanders, and vice versa. It does not work.

Talk to anyone outside the political class and you find this is as much wishful thinking today as it was when the Treaty of Rome was signed. The only common interest in Europe is to get out of Brussels in subsidies at least as much as they contribute in taxes.

All the rest is simply politicians’ hot air. So far, they have always been able to paper over the cracks, or more often stuff the cracks with money. As soon as the money runs out, so does the Euroenthusiasm.

And what then?

Thoughts on Athens

6 April 2010

OK; call me a heathen; Athens is over-rated. Unless you are riveted by Greek history there really is not a lot here that is interesting.

Give me Paris or London or Rome or Washington any day.

Sure the Parthenon looks grand. But it has been under renovation for 2,000 years and it is still dominated by cranes and building materials. But it is the general state of disrepair thst is sad. the temple of Zeus. A few old columns surrounded by a cow field.

Lycebatticus Hill. This has an old funicular railway that runs when the operator feel like it to a graffiti covered hill top.

Graffiti everywhere. Much of it is not even very artistic or colourful.

And of course we were there for Easter. It is hard to imagine any other cash strapped tourist driven economy completely closing down for the Easter weekend but that is what Athens does.

The Parthenon was closed on Easter Sunday. The new Acropolis Museum was closed on Sunday and Monday. The markets were closed all weekend as were the stores throughout the city; except for a few gift shops in the Plaka. Restaurants were often closed for all or part of the weekend.

Yet the city's hotels were fully booked with weekend visitors. It was just that there was not a lot for them to do.

The Euro hurts Greece. It has made Athens an expensive place to visit. Yet the city is not prosperous. Salaries are among the lowest in the European Union.

Bizarrely the only people selling in Athens at the weekend were the African hawkers. And they are everywhere; even wandering around the port at Piraeus. They all sell the same things; fake bags; fake watches; over-sized lighters and cheap toys. From morning to late night they are parked on the main pedestrian shopping street of Ermou. They wander around the restaurants of the plaka and take over the square at Monastikiri. They are totally harmless; but there is little evidence that you are in Athens!

PM cannot use courts

5 April 2010

Thailand's Civil Court on Monday refused to issue an injunction to force red-shirt protesters to leave Ratchaprasong intersection as requested by the government.

The court reasoned that the director of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) already has the authority under the Internal Security Act, which has been imposed in the capital, to order red-shirts out of the area without having to seek the court injunction.

The court explained that the ISA empowers the Isoc director to prevent activities that affect national stability and the director has the right to carry out actions that would bring the country back to normalcy.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is the director of Isoc.

Protesters who were still occupying the intersection cheered loudly upon hearing the court’s decision.

Red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan said this is the victory of the red-shirts and justice has been served.

I am not sure why Abhisit would use the courts other than as something to hide behind and say he was only doing their will. His government imposed the ISA, a special law that allows the security apparatus wide powers close to those of a state of emergency.

But the government does not want to sanction army units to march on thousands of protesters, sitting peacefully on the streets. So, the givernment went to the Court - and the Courts said you have the pwer to do it if you wish; not court sanction is needed.
 

PAD nonsense

5 April 2010

New Politics Party Secretary-General and People’s Alliance for Democracy spokesperson Suriyasai Katasila quoted in ASTV Manager says that the red shirts’ closure of the Rajprasong intersection was meant to pressure society rather than the government, because it damaged the economy and society. But this cannot be compared with the PAD protests, which were in a different context. The PAD’s actions were justified, as Thaksin’s nominee governments were illegitimate and unacceptable.

“Facts about the PAD’s protests, especially the seizures of Government House and the airports, have been distorted. The PAD, in fact, did not close down Suvarnabhumi Airport; it was ordered closed by Serirat Prasutanont, Director of the Suvarnabhumi Airport Authority, an action suspected to be malfeasance. Serirat is a relative of UDD leader Veera Musigapong…”.

Some people have very short, creative and selective memories,

Smoked BBQ lamb!

Easter Sunday - Athens

We had dinner here on Easter Sunday - a plate of greek salad and some bbq lamb. Small plates of fatty lamb. far too expensive for what was offered.

Army calls shots on House dissolution

Bangkok Post - 4 April 2010 - The Bangkok Post reports that signals from the military (and Si Sao Thewes) are that the PM shouldn't cave in to UDD demands and he must bide his time. Really it is just another reminder of who is in charge. But go back to the negotiation the reds said dissolution in 15 days and Abhisit said 9 months. The reds need to be seen to compromise - say dissolution by 31 July. 4 months away. Then see if Abhisit can move. Based on this analysis he cannot move. And that will weaken him and the Democrats.

"The army is playing a key role in Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's decision to rule out a quick dissolution of parliament as favoured by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.

During negotiations with the red shirt leaders on Sunday and Monday, Mr Abhisit cited the need to tackle economic problems, budget disbursement, a solution to charter amendments and a calmer political atmosphere as factors which make it inadvisable to rush to the polls. At least nine months are needed to be fully prepared.

One issue that is preventing the prime minister from launching an election campaign any time soon is the military reshuffle to find a successor to army chief Anupong Paojinda.

The Democrat Party-led coalition government is receiving full backing from the army which has sent 70,000 troops to control the situation in Bangkok since the latest round of street rallies by red shirt demonstrators began.

The signals being sent to Mr Abhisit from the army and even Si Sao Thewes (the residence of Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda) are that the prime minister must be patient in countering protests by the UDD and refuse to dissolve the parliament at least until the end of the year.

Present and former top brass believe the Democrats and the coalition partners will have an edge over Puea Thai if Mr Abhisit holds on to administrative power for some time before announcing the end of the legislative assembly.

The government can use all available mechanisms and budget to counter the financial ammunition supplied by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to the opposition party.

Two important issues which the army also cares about are budget approval for the next fiscal year which also involves arms procurement projects proposed by the armed forces and the reshuffle of top military leaders.

Gen Anupong will retire at the end of September and deputy army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha has been selected as his successor from Oct 1. The army wants the government to approve the list before dissolving parliament. Any change in administrative power now could affect Gen Anupong's succession plan and end the chance for Gen Prayuth to be promoted to the most powerful position in the army.

Gen Prayuth is the youngest among the so called "3Ps" group in the top military circle. The eldest P is "Pom", the nickname of Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon. The second P is "Pok", the nickname of Gen Anupong and the last is his deputy, Gen Prayuth. They are brothers, rising to power from the same unit at the Royal Guard's 2nd Infantry Division in Prachin Buri.

Gen Prayuth has four more years to serve and will retire in 2014. His military career has been set to follow in the footsteps of Gen Anupong.

Normally, the military reshuffle list is completed no later than mid-September but it can be done by August. That is the reason why the government cannot accept the demand by the red shirts to dissolve the House as soon as possible, not to mention the UDD's specific demand of 15 days.

The Democrats expect reciprocal benefits from the appointment of Gen Prayuth. The army, with the full support of the 3Ps, can help them in the next political battle with Puea Thai at least because they can order all soldiers to vote for the party when the troops go to cast their ballots.

The Internal Security Operations Command, with an annual budget of more than 8 billion baht and 700,000 staff members, can be a key instrument to canvass for the Democrats during election campaigns especially in the northern and eastern areas where Puea Thai's influence is still strong.

In case the Democrats do not emerge the winner in the next elections, the army can play a role in influencing the coalition parties now with Mr Abhisit not to defect to Puea Thai.

That power was proven when Gen Prawit, Gen Anupong and Gen Prayuth lobbied other parties to abandon Puea Thai to form the coalition government with the Democrats."

Kissing couple lose appeal

4 April 2010

A British couple jailed in Dubai for kissing in public have lost their appeal against their conviction.

Ayman Najafi, 24, and Charlotte Adams, 25, were sentenced to a month in prison with subsequent deportation and fined about £200 for drinking alcohol.

The couple were arrested in November after a woman accused them of breaking the country's strict decency laws by kissing on the mouth in a restaurant. At 2am in the morning. The woman has not been required to attend court to give evidence.

The pair said they would make a second appeal against the judge's decision.

Another historic day for democracy

3 April 2010

Rather than writing my own summary of red shirts 2010 March compared to the yellow shirts in 2006 I am reprinting BangkokPundit's critique published today.

BangkokPundit

Protesters in the streets wanting democracy, marching past shopping centres, closing the road to all. In 2010, The Nation is in hysterics about the reds, but back in 2006, you can see how they reported the PAD rally. The title was "Another historic march for democracy":

The People's Alliance for Democracy holds another historic march from the National Stadium to Sukhumvit Road to urge more people to come out to support the calls for a royal intervention in the political crisis.

The PAD declared victory Saturday night after over 150,000 people come out to show support for its appeal to His Majesty to grant an interim government to carry out political reform.

The PAD plans to march protesters from the stadium past Siam Square and Siam Paragon shopping areas to Sukhumvit Road to highlight its cause.
...
Sondhi says the demonstration at Siam Paragon may continue until April 1.

2:16 pm: Sondhi asks the crowd to gather at Siam Paragon on Wednesday (March 29). Sondhi also criticizes Emporium for putting up barricades to prevent protesters to go inside to use toilets. He urges protesters to boycott Emporium.
...
1:37 pm: Announcer tells the crowd that the road in front of Emporium is under occupation of protesters. Demonstrators who fully occupy the road on the opposite side from the shopping mall start crossing the road to the side of Emporium.

1:35 pm: The amplifier truck of Sondhi reaches under the fly-over in front of Emporium. Sondhi waves to the crowd. A lot of people watch the demonstration on the Sky Train station and from the area in front of the shopping mall.

1:32 pm: Demonstrators are asked to make way for amplifier truck so that Sondhi and other PAD leaders can open a Hyde Park in front of the shopping mall.
...
11:30 am: When the procession reaches the Rajprasong Intersection, protesters see a campaign vehicle of Paendin Thai Party driving past them from the opposite lane. Confusion break out when some protesters boo and throw objects to the vehicles. Some run after it and tearing down picture of Thaksin from the vehicle.
...
10:52 am: ASTV reports that the front of the procession is still at Siam Paragon while the tail is still in front of the National Stadium. It says the number of protesters is expected at about 100,000 as the line is longer than one kilometre [BP: If this how they calculate the numbers, how many red shirts are there then?.

BP: Different political agenda and so unsurprisingly a different response from The Nation. After this protest, the PAD then started to occupy the reds outisde of Paragon - around 200 metres from where the red shirts are now.

Despite the unabashed support for the PAD back then by those at The Nation with it being Thaksin's fault that he didn't resign which was stirring up the anger. However, the same problems that PAD faced back then will also apply to the red shirts this time.

From The Nation on March 29, 2006:

In spite of quiet objections from the management of Siam Paragon, PAD succeeded in establishing its foothold at the mall and forced businesses to shut for two days - dashing hopes for an end of the month sale.

From The Nation on March 28, 2006:

But in reality a three-day presence in front of Siam Paragon might cause real havoc for businesses in the area.

Even during Sunday's march past Siam Paragon traffic was paralysed for more than four hours.

Imagine what it will be like for three days and three nights.

Shoppers are likely to avoid the place, worried about traffic, general chaos, or even violence.

And if the business owners don't want business damaged, they might just join the anti-Thaksin rally.

While it seems a smart move, the PAD must be prepared for an eventual backlash.

If the rally makes trouble for business owners they may become annoyed with the protesters

From The Nation on March 28, 2006:

Protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul has described Siam Paragon as the "perfect location presented by heaven" for the demonstration.
...
For the PAD, although the strategy carries risk, it represents the lengths they will have to go to if they are to win this battle.

The Nation on March 29, 2006:

A clear majority, 71 per cent, of Bangkok residents are opposed to the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)'s decision to move its anti-Thaksin rally to Siam Paragon shopping mall, Abac Poll said yesterday.

BP: This is the same problem that the red shirts face this time. BP does not see any justification for a long stay in the centre of Bangkok. Staying overnight and returning would see increased anger - the red shirts don't have the media support that the PAD had in March 2006. The impact of protesting at the Rajprasong intersection is completely different from their normal location at the Phan Fa bridge.

Then, of course, Thaksin had the same position that Abhisit has today as The Nation on March 29, 2006 reports:

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra instructed police and government agencies to collect evidence against members of the anti-government movement to use in criminal or civil lawsuits for any violation of law and personal rights of any individuals.

Thaksin, speaking through a video conference link from his home in Chiang Mai, said he thought the gathering in front of Siam Paragon was intended to provoke the government to disperse them by force in order to stop the April 2 election from materialising.

Reds shut down malls

3 April 2010

It was something of a Saturday afternoon crisis in Bangkok as the city's middle classes could not shop in Siam. The red shirts took to the streets again. And in big numbers.

In one symbolic incident reported by the Associated Press an 18-year old boy ran his Porsche into a line a few parked red shirt motorcycles. AP repoted that police, who also found a handgun in the car, later identified the driver as Thanat Thanakitamnuay, grandson of prominent businessman and former Deputy Prime Minister Amnuay Viravan.

“This is just what’s wrong with this country. A rich man can drive into protesters and get away,” said Sakda, a factory worker from suburban Bangkok told AP. He declined to give his full name.

The quote is hardly surprising and the symbolism of this incident is also very obvious. As for the boy with the Porsche, as always daddy will sort that out.
 

Yellow turns to Pink

2 April 2010

The Nation reports today how a  doctor and lecturer of Chulalongkorn University led a group of government's supporters to visit Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva at the Government House to show their moral support. The group was led by Doctor Tul Sitthisomwong, a lecturer of Chulalongkorn's Faculty of Medicine.

About 10 academics and medical personnel from Ramathibodi Hospital and Chulalongkorn University also accompanied Tul to meet the prime minister at 8 am.

Ramathibodi being the Hospital that allegedly tested the red shirts blood and reported that it was infected. Coincidence. I think not!

This is the best part - "speaking to reporters after meeting the prime minister, Tul denied that his group was linked to the People's Alliance for Democracy and the military. Tul said his group saw that the prime minister should remain running the country instead of dissolving the House as demanded by the red-shirt movement."

This of course is the same Doctir Tul who is in teh Bangkok Post on 6th Febraury reported as follows:

"Yellow-clad PAD representatives yesterday submitted a letter to Senate Speaker Prasobsuk Boondej informing him they would gather signatures to demand the impeachment of the 102 MPs who proposed the charter amendment motion to parliament.

PAD member Tul Shitthisomwong said the MPs had proposed the amendment to further their own interests and that violated the constitution as Section 122 of the 2007 charter prohibited them from having a conflict of interest."

A quick google search for Dr Tul reveals a politically active doctor.

PAD member; new name; new colour. Now where are the blue shirts.

Burj Khalifa

1 April 2010

Three months after its official opening it is still not open and the viewing gallery remains closed - but it is the most photographed building in Dubai - and here is a composite of some of my pictures:

Thailand update - 1 April 2010

I was hoping to avoid a Thailand update today but there is so much nonsense and propaganda that comment is needed.

"Health staff: HIV detected in splattered blood" blazed the Bangkok Post.

This sounds unethical. It also read like propaganda of the worst sensationalist kind. MCOT and TNA both carried the story. So did the Nation. As always with the Thai press they gleefully reported the story without any investigation or checking of facts.

The article reported that "samples of the blood that was splattered by the red-shirts at the gates of Government House and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's house on March 15 and 16 were found to have three kinds of highly contagious viruses - hepatitis B, hepatitis C and HiV.

The blood, which United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) leaders claimed was all donated by red-shirt supporters, was also found to be mixed with the blood of pigs.

The results of the tests were released on Thursday by the Mahidol Brothers Group, led by Dr Kusol Prawichpaiboon....they submitted a report on their findings to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva through his deputy secretary-general Issara Sunthornwat.

The report strongly condemned the red-shirts for using blood to attack their political opponents, even though the UDD claimed their actions were non-violent and constitutional.

The report said the leaders of the red-shirts showed no sense of responsibility for the hygiene and physical welfare of their fellow Thais.

The TNA version reported that: " The Mahidol University medical group disclosed that test results of blood collected from sites targetted by the Red Shirt blood-pouring protest were tainted with severe communicable diseases, including HIV/AIDS.

The test results of blood samples collected from several sites where the blood-splattering protest took place were tainted with severe diseases, including Hepatitis B and C as well as HIV/AIDS.

Dr Kusol Prawitpaiboon, representative of the Mahidol University medical group, said Thursday while submitting the blood test results to the prime minister's representative Issara Sunthornwat."

But now The Nation is reporting that the Mahidol Brothers Group's comment that the blood the redshirt protesters splashed Government House and the PM's residence with on March 1516 carried hepatitis B, hepatitis C and HIV viruses was mixed in with pig's blood as well could be considered unethical, the Medical Council of Thailand warned yesterday.

The council's subcommittee for professional ethics is set to discuss this issue in its meeting on April 8.

Better still, Mahidol University's Ramathibodi Hospital denied doing any blood tests for the group, while the red shirts are threatening to take it to court for "human rights" violations.

Meanwhile, Ramathibodi Hospital's director, Dr Than Supatarapan, said he did not know Dr Kusol, the Mahidol Brothers Group leader, because he did not work at the hospital. In addition, he said, he had inquired with the hospital's Pathology Department and was told that no blood samples had been submitted for tests recently.

**************************************

Meanwhile the Nations is almost wetting itself in excitement as "a rapidly expanding network of academics, businessmen and civic-society organisations has urged peace-loving citizens to join forces tomorrow in a bid to counter the red-shirt protesters.

Their venue is Chulalongkorn University's lawns in front of the twin statue of King Rama V and King Rama VI.

The Nation reports Vichian Nak-indaranont, a businessman, saying that several hundred businessmen are expected to join tomorrow's gathering at Chulalongkorn University.

The Bangkok Post also writes of another group called “People Who Love Peace” who have “issued a statement voicing their disagreement with the red shirts’ demand for a dissolution of the House and what it said was an attempt to amend the constitution to whitewash wrongdoers.”

We are colour blind say the organisers - but we happen to hate red! Color blind means wearing pink: “Please wear pink. (If that is inconvenient, please wear any colour except red),” said the organizers. Pink is the Chulalongkorn University’s color and it is also the currently most popular color for royalists.

What is false is to claim that this “movement” is somehow unbiased, neutral or representative of the “silent majority.”

Where were all these people when the airport was occupied in 2008. Or when government house was blockaded for 190 days. Or when there was a coup and the army took over government for a year?

Pink is the New Yellow : the return of the PAD masquerading behind a network of academics, businessmen and civic groups all determined to counter the red-shirt protesters.

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Finally the Nation reports that the Office of the Attorney-General has approved the Finance Ministry's order for commercial banks to transfer funds in various bank accounts belonging to ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his family to the state coffers. Commercial banks in which Thaksin and his family have accounts have been asked to transfer funds totalling Bt46 billion to the Finance Ministry.

However, lawyers representing Thaksin and his family have sought a court injunction on the transfer of the funds to the state treasury.

Presumably no transfer my happen until the injunction is heard.

Meanwhile, the Department of Special Investigation has asked five commercial banks to report the detailed transactions of deposit accounts from which money was withdrawn by two of Thaksin's children since the Revenue Department issued an asset-freeze order.

DSI director-general Tarit Pengdit said letters had been sent yesterday to Bangkok Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, Bank of Ayudhya, Thanachart Bank and the Government Housing Bank.

The financial institutions have been instructed to submit the reports as soon as possible.

Tarit said the DSI had acted upon a Revenue Department request. It does not necessarily indicate any wrongdoing in Panthongtae and Pinthongta Shinawatra's withdrawals from the deposit accounts.

The DSI's investigation will establish whether such withdrawals are damaging the companies that own the accounts.

Tarit added that the DSI was not taking the side of any party. The investigation has been launched to prevent damage to government agencies. Of course.

Just a thought here - for public transparency - how about a complete and public accounting of where the money is transferred from,  where it is transferred to; who is entitled to withdraw the transferred funds and how and when are those funds used.
 

Smiling for the cameras

1 April 2010 - The Economist

"The glare of public debate was a departure from Thailand’s usual brand of political dealmaking. And it hardly made prime-time entertainment. But the three-hour televised peace talks on the evening of March 27th between Thailand’s prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, and his red-shirted opponents did at least suggest that a tense political stand-off on the streets of Bangkok might yet be resolved peacefully. Neither side, however, was ready to budge much; a second meeting on March 28th likewise failed to yield a compromise; and it is unclear if there will be more talks to break the impasse.

The red shirts, who have been camped out in the Thai capital for three weeks in a huge show of strength, want Mr Abhisit to call new elections at once. They were not impressed by his offer of a nine-month timetable to wind down parliament, in which Mr Abhisit’s Democrat Party heads a six-party ruling coalition. The two sides might yet close the gap on a timetable.

Mr Abhisit had pooh-poohed the popularity and legitimacy of the red shirts, so sitting down with their leaders was a concession. It came amid friction between the army, squarely behind Mr Abhisit, and the protesters, who accuse the top brass of dictating government policy. A spate of unsolved bombings of government and military facilities has added to the tensions. The talks on March 27th followed sabre-rattling by both sides, including a threat by demonstrators to storm an army base where Mr Abhisit has been holed up.

Bangkok’s royalist elite has been chastened by the red shirts’ pulling power. Far from being a rural army-for-hire, as critics claim, it clearly has plenty of urban supporters. Not all red shirts are fans of Thaksin Shinawatra, the fugitive former prime minister, who backs the movement. But they are ready to join forces to evict a government that, in their eyes, lacks a democratic mandate. To imagine, as some do, that the red shirts will all go home to tend their fields is wishful thinking, argues Chris Baker, a historian and biographer of Mr Thaksin. The movement has staying power and Bangkok’s snooty elites “have been kidding themselves,” he says.

A commitment to hold elections soon should end the protest. But Mr Abhisit’s coalition partners, mostly cast-offs from Mr Thaksin’s former party, want to stay in power—and build up campaign funds—for as long as possible. The generals have their eyes fixed mainly on their annual promotions in October, when the army chief must retire. Mr Abhisit told the red-shirt leaders that an election should be held after constitutional amendments were completed and a budget was passed in the autumn. That sounds like flim-flam. And an excuse might yet be found for further delay, beyond the end of parliament’s term in December 2011.

Behind the sparring over election dates are calculations over who stands to gain. Many believe that the Puea Thai party, the heir to Mr Thaksin’s electoral machine, would win a plurality in an election, as its predecessor did in December 2007. Red shirts reckon they have a clear majority. But there is a counter-argument. The share of the vote for Mr Thaksin and his proxies has been in steady decline since a 2005 landslide victory. Court-ordered break-ups of two ruling political parties have depleted his stock of credible allies. To this way of thinking, the red-shirt protests represent the flailing of a desperate man. It is a fine theory that would seem worth putting to the electoral test. But Mr Abhisit and his backers do not seem convinced."

Prachatai webmaster charged

1 April 2010

Prachatai editor Chiranuch Premchaiporn was yesterday charged under the Computer Crimes Act as she did not delete comments posted by readers that were alleged to constitute lese majeste. In theory, Chiranuch she faces up to 50 years in prison because there are 10 counts - five years per count.

Chiranuch was granted bail after the prosecutors eventually filed a lawsuit against her under Thailand’s Computer Crimes Act.

Her alleged crime - failing to self-censor web-board posts fast enough for government censors.

The criminal court set 31 May for the first meeting to check witness lists of both defendants and prosecutors.

She was first arrested in March last year. The cyber law was introduced during the post coup army administration of Gen Surayud Chulanont. It was first successfully applied to a blogger Suvicha Thakor, who later got 20-year sentence in April last year and is now waiting for the royal amnesty.

More than six people have also been arrested with this law and the prosecutors have yet to file the charges to the court.

Thailand has already curbed speeches and discussions that deemed lese majeste through the criminal law with maximum punishment of 15 year sentence but the information and communication technology has become a convenient tool for authorities upon internet users.

PM Abhisit has had his say on this case; but to little effect. In March 2009, he told a meeting at St John’s College, Oxford that he had “sorted out Chiranuch’s case and it was a misunderstanding by the police”.

Earlier this year, at the annual Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) dinner, with Ms Chiranuch present in the audience, Abhisit said this was one case that he viewed with "regret."

Whatever the prime minister may say, the case is clearly grinding through the system, and will be a test case for Thailand’s relatively new Computer Crimes Act which arms authorities with wide powers. It will thus be very closely watched.

Thaksin back in Dubai

1 April 2010

Why should the red shirts or any observer believe anything that the Thai government says about Thaksin, the red shirts or dissolution of the government:

Thaksin is back in Dubai. And it seems that the Thai government now accepts that he can stay and live here.

31 March 2010 - "We are told that Dubai will not let him conduct political activities there," said Chavanont Intarakomalyasut, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, adding that Thaksin has not been kicked out of the United Arab Emirates. "To stay there — to live there — is another story."

Yet it is only two weeks since the Thai government was stating categorically that Thaksin had been asked to leave the UAE.

16 March 2101 - "The UAE will lose face if they allow Thaksin to return. They may arrest him, as has been requested by us," Vice Foreign Minister Panich Vikitsreth said. "I don't think Thaksin will be allowed to enter the UAE."

13 March 2010 - Bangkok Post headline "UAE asks Thaksin to leave" - “A high ranking government official of the UAE has confirmed that the fugitive ex-premier has been asked to leave the UAE for having violated an agreement that he would not use the country as base for his political activities,” Panich Vikitsreth, assistant to Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya said.

Meanwhile Thaksin spent a few days in Sweden - The Swedish Foreign Ministry confirmed that the Thai Government on Monday did request the Swedish government to ask Thaksin Shinawatra to leave Sweden. But Sweden did not ask him to leave, says Anders Joerle, head of the press department of the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs.

The Thais working Israel's farms

1 April 2010 -  Jon Donnison - BBC News, Gaza

The beautiful moshav or communal farm at Netiv Haasara in southern Israel, right on the border with Gaza, is green, lush and fragrant with jasmine and orange blossom.

In the moshav's vast greenhouses they grow everything from cucumbers to coriander, peas to peppers.

The sounds and smells are pretty typical of Israel in springtime - except, that is, for the murmur of conversation in an unlikely language - Thai.

"Virtually all our workers here are Thai," says Roni Keidar who runs a seed production business on the moshav.

"We tried to get Israelis to do the work but it's too difficult. It's too hot for them in the greenhouses," she says.

"Too posh to pick?" I ask. "Maybe," Ms Keidar laughs.

The Israeli government says there are around 28,000 Thais working legally in Israel.

And with the farms located close to the border with Gaza, there is a risk from the rockets Palestinian militants fire into Israel.

Last month a Thai farm worker at Netiv Haasara became the first person in Israel in more than a year to be killed by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants in Gaza.

But for many it is a risk worth taking.

"I earn about a thousand dollars a month here," says 33-year-old Kai, who gives only his first name, as he picks coriander. "That's double what I could earn back home."

Kai has worked here for four and half years. He has six months to go on his five-year visa.

He is doing work that used to be done by another cheap workforce just down the road.

Netiv Haasara is right on the border with Gaza. Standing by the greenhouses you can literally touch the huge concrete wall that separates Israel from the Palestinian territory.

Less than a kilometre from Netiv Haasara is the Erez Crossing, the main checkpoint from Gaza into Israel.

These days just a trickle of people are allowed to cross.

But until the start of the second intifada, or Palestinian uprising, in 2000 when Israel tightened the border, thousands of Gazans used to travel daily through Erez to work on Israeli farms.

I meet one such Gazan next to his small house in Beit Hanoun.

The walls are riddled with bullet holes from Israel's offensive in Gaza just over a year ago.

Like more than 40% of Gazans, Khalil Zania is unemployed.

But for 17 years he helped keep bees and picked flowers on the moshav where Roni Keidar now has her farm.

"After the intifada they started using foreign workers and we had to stay home. It makes me feel sad. Palestinian workers were very good," he says.

Mr Zania says he still talks on the phone to some of the friends he met in Israel.

And Roni Keidar said her Gazan workers were "part of the family".

"We used to go to their weddings or birthday parties in Gaza. They would come and eat at our house," she says.

Although she says it's "crazy" to be using workers from halfway around the world when there is a huge unemployed workforce so close to home, she can see why the Palestinians are not allowed in.

"It's because of terrorism," she says, adding that when the borders were open, there were suicide attacks in cities such as Tel Aviv.

"It was much nicer to have Palestinian workers coming across. I wish it could change."

Dubai Briton faces jail over 'middle finger salute'

1 April 2010 - The Daily Telegraph

I dont really want to comment on this story - other than you have been warned. Just walk away from any altercation. It is not worth it.

"A British expatriate in Dubai is facing jail and deportation after being accused of making a single-finger gesture in an argument.

Simon Andrews, 56, has had his passport confiscated for almost eight months while waiting for his case to be heard.

He told Dubai Court of Misdemeanours he denies "flipping the finger" at Mahmoud Rasheed, an Iraqi aviation student, during an argument.

It is the latest in a string of prosecutions of expatriates and visitors in Dubai for breaching the emirate's public decency laws.

Making insulting gestures is regarded as unacceptable, and carries with it the possibility of a jail sentence of up to six months and deportation.

An Australian nurse working in a hospital in Dubai was last year jailed for a month and deported after serving 24 days after admitting raising his middle finger to a driver who he said was driving erratically while talking on his mobile phone.

The driver turned out to be an off-duty army officer who followed him home and reported him to police.

Mr Andrews has said Mr Rasheed, who has not yet appeared in court to give evidence, is mistaken and no finger was raised.

At a court hearing on Sunday, he asked for the passport put up as bail surety for him by a friend to be returned as the friend had to go abroad for work.

He was told to provide another passport in its place. His own passport has also been confiscated, preventing him leaving Dubai before the case is heard.

"He appeared very confident," an observer at the court said. "He said it was "my word against his word" and though the other main claimed he flashed his middle finger, it never happened.

"He also pointed out he hadn't turned up in court."

Also appearing in court on Sunday will be Ayman Najafi and Charlotte Adams, two Britons who are appealing against a one-month jail sentence for kissing in public at a restaurant, another breach of the public decency code.

They also pleaded not guilty, but were convicted even though the main witness, an Emirati woman who called the police, failed to attend the hearing.

The Foreign Office says that British citizens are more likely to be arrested in the United Arab Emirates than anywhere else in the world.

It warns visitors not to misled by the emirate's tolerance of some non-Muslim practices such as drinking alcohol into thinking that there is a free-for-all. The emirate still practises a form of Sharia law.

On the other hand, some local newspaper commentators have urged law enforcement agencies to be more explicit about what is against the law and what is tolerated."

Canada's dying aviation industry

1 April 2010

The Skyservice charter airline has cancelled almost all of its scheduled flights out of Toronto's Pearson International Airport amid rumours that the airline may have gone out of business.

So Air Canada has seen off yet another Canadian airline it its bid to be the sole survivor.

Skyservice was founded in 1986. It had more than 1,200 employees and operated more than 20 commercial aircraft to destinations in Canada, the United States, Caribbean, Mexico and Europe. Its fleet included the Airbus A330, A320 and the Boeing B757.

In other news Air Canada said on Monday that it has been cleared to launch its legal challenge for the right to resume flying at Toronto City Airport in direct competition with niche carrier Porter Airlines. Air Canada also started Toronto Island flights in competition to CityExpress back in the 1990s; leading to the collapse of the competitor.

Opening an airline in Canada and taking on the mighty Air Canada is a risky proposition at best. Here are some of the failed airlines of Canada.

Air BC · Air Canada Tango · Air Nova · Air Ontario · Canada 3000 · Canada West Airlines · Canadian Airlines · Canadian Airways · Canadian Colonial Airways · Canadian Pacific Airlines · CityExpress · Harmony Airways · Inter-Canadien · Jetsgo · Odyssey International · Pacific Western Airlines · Quebecair · Roots Air · Royal Aviation · Transair · Trans-Canada Air Lines · Trans-Provincial Airlines · Triton Airlines · Wardair · Worldways Canada · World-Wide Airways ·Zip and now Skyservice.

Only one Canadian startup, Westjet, has gained critical mass, largely as a result of being based where Air Canada is weakest, in the west.

Air Canada also lobbies hard to block out overseas competitors such as Emirates. In the USA, Emirates competes freely with Delta and United on USA-DXB flights. Yet Air Canada complains to the regulator at any extension of Emirates rights into Canada.

Air Canada claims that it is defending the aviation industry in Canada - yet it is doing so on its terms and as the sole survivor. The rgeulator needs a good look at the history of failed airlines in Canada to see that excessive protection of Air Canada is harmful to the Canadian industry and traveling public.