December 2004   Why was there no warning?; How much is a life worth?; Killer Tsunami hits Asia; Bertuzzi's plea bargain; predictable and wrong; Christmas Past; A very Faye Christmas; Its raining cranes...but there is no peace; Cutting crew takes on reality tv; Sex and the Singapore City; Air Asia takes flak from the Bangkok Post; Alfred Hitchcock would approve

November 2004 China is hot; Zimbabwe farce; A mickey mouse Disney; China's military ambitions; The rise of China; For China economics comes first; Crane mail in Thailand; The coming war over Taiwan; Thaksin now likely to attend APEC - does he read this!; Hong Kong rolls over but it is not enough; Overdosed on Arafat; One year on Thai PM snubs APEC; In the deep rough at Muang Kaew; How offensive can you get?; Supermarket trolley drivers terrorise Bangkok; Pathetic; the world's self appointed greatest democracy held hostage; fox news and nbc follow rascott.com;  rascott.com calls a Bush win; America's most wanted back on video; More from Thailand's wierdest town; Vote Kerry - not a great choice; but the only one available

October 2004  Fears for Thailand's south; Arsenal pay the penalty; Ethiopia - twenty years on; Beijing Notes; Underfed or underpaid; Air Farce One; China's World Cup woes; Afghan democracy - a success story; End the barbaric bullfight; The brutal murder of Ken Bigley; Outsourcing myself; The US are electing the wrong candidates.

September 2004 A new war is needed; '2046' - four reasons to love this film; The West Wing's unlikely fan club; The first Virgin in space; Impotent Blair is at a loss; In any God's name this cannot be justified; Farewell Brian Clough; Weak Kofi; Beijing won the Democrats nil; The problem for Hong Kong's democrats; Your Bangkok subway guide; England should not tour Zimbabwe; Thailand's airport greed; Thai had a dream; Saying sorry for a bad whiff; Bigger, better, brighter, brasher, bolder Beijing; Malaysia gets it right

August 2004 Kiss and Tell: Over 330,000 misguided votes; Is this Howard's end?; A new version of the Nigerian scam; Singapore's political and economic expediency; Hit for six: Bangkok Governor election campaign; The questionable legacy of Deng; Was it Peng or was in Deng?; Making Vietnam an election issue; Bangkok's shut down; Missing the opportunity for change - Singapore's media; Dirty politics or dirty laundry; Early nights in Bangkok; This season's footie forecast; Searching for the Olympic spirit; Searching for inspiration; Split Democrats open way for Pavena; Bitter rivals to contest the Asian cup fina; Bangkok's unsung taxi drivers

July 2004 The President that America really wants;The land of the rising son;  Bangkok's scary choices for mayor; Sweet FA....;The world's most unlikely jogger;  Why Butler is a warning shot; Weapons of mass deception; the case against Tony Blair;  No sense from Arroyo; Sense from the US Senate; A confused agenda at the International Aids Conference; Time Asia reports on Asia's budget airline; s LCC ticket pricing; Naughty NokAir shows its Spirit; The 2004 US Election;  Hong Kong's political birth;  Bangkok's new subway

June 2004 Canada's chastened Liberals; Canada's election; the safe choice; Publishing Sensation; England's shoot-out curse; Football maths; Vancouver: Midsummer night's dream; Canada's election; a crisis of leadership; England's nightmare - England 1 France 2; Reagan: The consequences of inaction; She said; they said; European Championship predictions; PLA stamps its authority on Hong Kong; Tiananmen's message; Why democracy matters; India's election - a fractured verdict?; Pattaya Today revisited - soap opera at its best

May 2004  Amnesty International - Why Human Rights Matter; Time for seeding the FA Cup; Khun mai kuey doen lenn khon dioew; Casualties of War; truth and decency; Lies about crimes; George Bush never looked into Nick's eyes; Fixing Bangkok airport; Mirror Editor sacked; Misleading people and endangering lives; India's election shock; Our immoral world; Singapore's Happy Loos !; How others see Thailand; The China squeeze; Rumsfeld must go - he would not be missed; Final farewells for Frasier and Friends; The enduring Thai gem scam; Barbarians masquerading as liberators

From 7 April 2004 Beijing's hard line on Hong Kong Britain's sorry isolation; Would you embrace this man?; Bangkok Fire leaves thousands homeless;  Losing our edge; the New York Times on US competitiveness; Let freedom ring; three commentaries on the expansion of the European Union on May 1, 2004; India's vibrant democracy; Do not apply for this vacancy; The Wrong War (Op-ed from the New York Times); Over rated, soaking, Songkran; Bonk it like Beckham; The growing divide between the USA and Canada; Budget carriers boost regional tourism

From 20 March 2004 One country - do as we say; Bangkok Motor Show 2004 - Picture Gallery; What next after explosives theft in Thailand; The message from Taiwan's strange election; The new elite - Anthony Sampson on the British Establishment; Silence of the witnesses; Election fever sweeps Asia (oops not in China); Hong Kong patriotism; Unlawful killing; Bloomberg profile of Thai Prime Minister Thaksin; Philip Bobbitt on the Iraq war

From 1 March 2004 Time for a rethink after Madrid; Bertuzzi update; The Madrid bombings; When sport is not sporting and the failure of the sports authorities; A global threat needs a global response; Why what others think about us matters; Hong Kong's Lantau Cable Car

From 21 February 2004: Naked News in Hong Kong; Africa Calling - The Guardian; gbp 10 million boost for Reuters CEO; Why friends fall out; Worrying trends in Bangkok's Media; ; Was I wrong about Iraq - The Guardian

From 1 February 2004: Patriotic Games - Hong Kong; Another plea to free the Guantanamo 600; Economic Conflicts of Interest; Intimate Interns; Chicken Flew - Nok Air; What do Colin Powell and  Justin   Timberlake have in Common?; America's best friend may be her worst nightmare; Let the People Decide; Pattaya Today !; Why journalists should report the news and not be the news; Ryanair Subsidies QandA

From 20 January 2004: The BBC gets what it deserved; Calling foul on fowl flu denial;            Happy Chinese New Year; Singapore's alarming executions; Privatisation of Space Exploration

From 25 December 2003: Singapore expected to legalise oral sex ! Take a number - onboard loo queues; The IHT on Prime Minister Thaksin; Air marshals; a modern day necessity; Raise a finger to finger printing; A new year's plea; Terror should not make us illiberal; Why did so many have to die in Bam (a must read); Time Lapse; Do not feel sorry for Rio Ferdinand; Huge Grant does Bangkok; A Nation mourns; corgi mauled in royal dogfight.

DECEMBER 2004

Why was there no warning?

29 December 2004

This is not a time for recrimination and finger pointing. It is a time for doing as much as possible to rescue, aid, comfort, and support those in need.

But questions are rightly being asked about why the death toll needed to be so high. The following opinion piece from today's Nation newspaper in Bangkok should serve as a wake up call to many. The article needs no further comment.

How much is a life worth?

28 December 2004

With the death toll now close to 60,000 the Australian Foreign Secretary has said that Australia will lead a Tsunami warning system for the Indian ocean.

The Australians are already party to a warning system for the Pacific. But guess what, the Pacific nations are among the wealthiest nations in the world; Japan, Canada, the USA are all a part of the Pacific warning system.

But the Indian Ocean is surrounded by the nations of Africa, South Asia and South East Asia. The technology existed to warn people to get to high ground. And it requires huge investment to implement, educate, monitor and operate such a warning system; which in itself may only be used once a generation.

This is one investment that should have come earlier; and while the Australian initiative may be for the long term good it looks like a belated assessment that the wealthy nations of the region should have done something earlier.

Death toll reaches 23,000

27 December 2004

CNN's coverage of the Tsunami was awful yesterday with Andrew Brown in Hong Kong being roped in to provide local commentary despite the fact that Hong Kong is 1,500 miles away from the Thai and Malaysia crisis points and further form India and Sri Lanka.

Today the coverage is improved although Larry King needs to learn how to pronounce Phuket. Sadly the international media has largely fixed on Thailand as Phuket's dead includes a large number of foreigners. And guess what, there are phone lines and English speaking people in Phuket so they can be summoned to talk with Larry King. Thailand's dead is now estimated at 1,000. The number of dead in the coastal communities of South Asia is far far greater.

I mentioned Phuket Laguna yesterday; apparently the resort complex has been wiped out.

A friend who flies for Air Asia said that Phuket airport was reopened at about 5pm yesterday and that airlines were running extra flights; she had been called for two extra flights finally getting back to Bangkok at 5am.

I am too far away; and have no internet connection here to be able to provide effective updates.

Killer tsunami waves hit Thailand and South Asia

26 December 2004

I woke this morning to messages from Thailand and India telling me of the massive disaster to hit South East and South Asia last night.

The massive earthquake in Sumatra at around 8am drove tidal waves across the Indian Ocean. The first tidal wave hit Phuket just over two hours after the earthquake.

My first shock is that there appears to have been no warning. There seems to be no effective coastguard.

CBC Newsworld has decent coverage of the disaster. The US networks including the domestic CNN service are predictably ignorant.

The west coast beaches on Phuket will have been the most exposed. The main beach area of Patong, together with Kara and Karon beaches all have beachside roads and beachfront hotel blocks. Phuket airport, which is currently closed, is next to the island's northern beaches. Big resort complexes like the Phuket Laguna are on the waterfront. Their are reports of people in their hotels as waves of water swept into their rooms. Others on the beaches saw the waves approaching and ran.....

One friend in Bangkok still cannot contact one of her holidaying friends. She has been able to contact others after hours of trying. Telephone networks are predictably overloaded.

As I write this it is approaching 2am in Thailand; rescue work has slowed down overnight. Tomorrow the extent of the damage will be clearer.

Meanwhile Sri Lanka appears to have been hit hardest; some of the low lying Maldive islands may have been literally washed away.

Putting sport beyond the law

24 December 2004

Christmas Past

18 December 2004

I woke up this morning thinking of Christmas Time when I was a kid. There was always a real tree; we went to church on Christmas morning; we ate too much turkey; there were Christmas crackers, silly hats and bad jokes. I was (still am !) the eldest of three kids; we used to torture our parents by putting on some sort of play or carol service after lunch; even the Queen's speech must have sounded good by comparison.

Indeed I still know most of the words of all the traditional Christmas carols; and the childish rewritten versions; "Good King Wencelas went out in his mini minor; took a double bend too fast and landed up in China!"

My primary school would put on a nativity play; there would be carol concerts. The concerts at my senior school were almost sell out events; the choir would rehearse the whole winter term.

It was a holiday; it was a time for family and friends; it even snowed occasionally.

As a teenager my parents were in Nigeria; the kids would haul out of the English winter to spend 3 weeks in a constant round of days at the pool or beach and partying. My favourite Christmas card read; "Christmas need not always be white; black is beautiful." Hear, hear. 

What has happened to the season of peace and goodwill to all men (and women!). Type "Christmas+Warning+2004" onto google and you get : Results 1 - 10 of about 3,560,000 for christmas+warning+2004

Their is a terror alert issued to Australians who may be traveling at Christmas. It wont stop them from traveling; if something does happen the government can say "told you so !"

There are warnings about alcohol, sex, infected turkeys, computer viruses, people are advised to avoid balloons due to latex allergies and be wary of injury from Christmas trees. Office workers are advised not to photocopy bums or breasts (risk of broken glass) at the Christmas Party.

Close circuit TVs have been set up in some Santa grottos to ensure that employed Santa's do not molest children as they make their annual outrageous gift demands!

Councillors in Mottingham, South London, demanded £5m worth of insurance cover before putting Christmas lights up, while in Bury St Edmunds an illuminated Christmas tree was banned in case its low-voltage bulbs electrocuted passers-by.

Many schools no not hold a nativity play, many have no carol service. Instead they will have a winter concert.

A colleague in Canada asked my address the other day so that he could send me a "holiday card"!!! Christmas has been hijacked by the politically correct and by the lawyers.

The UK's Independent newspaper created this wonderful image of Santa:

Picture dear old Santa at home; "The wind caresses the arctic wastes, sneaks under the wood-cabin door and up Santa's robes. He feels every day of his age today. In the mirror his beard looks greyer. The rheumy eyes have lost their sparkle. For the first time ever, he contemplates his deliveries as a duty rather than a delight. The thought of fighting his way through the reindeer-rights protesters and past his little helpers waving placards about their "Scrooge-like" boss dampens his spirits like a layer of sleet. It is hardly his fault the office party was cancelled. Since that incident between two elves on the photocopier, his public liability cover has gone through the roof. No more joggling children on your knee, his lawyer says: too big an insurance risk. And lay off the mince pies and sherry, adds his doctor. Is it just an old man's nostalgia, he wonders, or were Christmases past simpler? When did his presents start to be wrapped with red tape, the sleigh need a licence?" Pulling on his crash helmet, the law forbids him simply wearing a cap' he boldly sets out on his deliveries.

Me; I am going to enjoy the holiday; the tree is up at home; the lights have not fused yet; I will wear a Santa hat on the golf course tomorrow; the caddies always like that ! And I will be on the ski slopes of Whistler on Christmas Day.

Enjoy your holidays wherever you are and whatever your faith. Christmas is a time to hope for peace and goodwill for all people, everywhere.

A very Faye Christmas!

10 December 2004                                                                   

It is the beginning of the festive season; even in Thailand there are trees, decorations and choruses of "Frosty the Snowman".

Meanwhile in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as part of the preparation for the festive season, my favourite Asian diva, Faye Wong, has graced the covers of Hong Kong and Taiwan's Elle magazine. Christmas Glamour indeed !

Its raining cranes....but there is no peace

8 December 2004

If you had the misfortune to read the Bangkok Post last Monday you might think that all 90 million paper cranes had fallen into the lap of a fifteen year old girl from Narathiwat called Mae-eya Bula.

On page 1 of the Bangkok Post she vows to be sisters with 22 year old Kanittha Srinarak from Udon Thani whose name and mobile number were on a crane found by Ms. Bula.

But on page 2, in a different article, the same reporter tells of a Mae-eya Bula, 15, a Narathiwat resident, who collected a paper carne with the message "I want to kill all militants.

Meanwhile as Ms. Bula was collecting cranes, Arsor Abdul Sorni, the mother of Mauseng Sorni who was shot to death in the Tak Bai protest sat at home. Sorni's body is reported as having a gunshot wound in his back and many bruises. In compensation she had received 100,000 from the government and another 6,000 baht from provincial authorities. A total of US$2,600.

The crane drop, in windy conditions, needed 300 missions in total.

It is certainly a unique approach to appeasement. But it has probably done more to unite the crane-makers than the crane-receivers. The gesture enthralled the Thai public and galvanized them into a crane making frenzy.

But it appears to have done little to give the Muslim south serious political recognition or to redress the Muslim community's long-standing grievances.

Cutting crew takes on reality tv!

8 December 2004

On page 4 of today's Bangkok Post Business Section is a quarter page advertisement under the rather lengthy headline: "BNH Hospital will host the world's first Live Sex Reassignment Surgery ("SRS") performed by Thailand's world-class team of surgeons"

The advert continues to say that the expertise of Thai surgeons will be on display to the world. The event will be held on 9th and 10th of December. The advertisement does not say who the lucky victim (patient?) is or how the surgery will be shown either in the hospital,or to the global audience of whackos who want to see a boy transformed into a girl. This is taking reality tv to new extremes.

While the surgery is in progress there will be supporting music played from Cutting Crew, perhaps including that old SRS favourite, "the first cut is the deepest".

Sex and the Singapore City

8 December 2004

A survey last Sunday in Singapore's Times newspaper revealed (and this is no surprise) that children and sex are low in the priorities of Singapore's married couples.

Which only goes to show that sex and fertility cannot be bought by the government. The Singapore authorities have reacted to all time low birth rates by offering significant housing grants, cash payments, baby-care subsidies, tax rebates for working mothers and longer maternity leave all to encourage an increase in birth rates. There are other priorities in Singapore where the national slogan appears to be "I shop, therefore I am."

But Singaporeans remain focused on career, credit cards, condos, cars and club memberships. Singaporean men appear to be having plenty of sex - in China, Thailand and Indonesia; they are just not having it in Singapore; maybe because they are too tired from their overseas trips or because there is too much pressure at home to conform and perform.

The eight low cost airline flights a day between SIN and BKK have been a bonus for short term travelers to Bangkok and also for Thai girls looking for short term employment in Singapore!

The Singapore government's strategy is simply wrong; people do not use government tax rebates as foreplay. "Dear, isn't it a good time to have sex now as we get a bigger grant."  What the government needs to do is create an atmosphere that is conducive to sex!

That means that sex is something people want to do rather than something that the government obliges them to do. Singapore has made only small progress in this direction. You can now see censored editions of Sex and the City; you can read a Singapore version (very tame) of Cosmopolitan. More, much more is needed; liberalise attitudes towards sex; encourage people to enjoy sex at home and just maybe the culture will change.

Among urgent changes needed in Singapore are:

Open up cable tv networks to allow adult channels. Let a couple get into the mood watching some well filmed porn. That must be more of a stimulant than Channel 5 and the local evening news.

License adult shops; let Singaporeans buy adult toys, clothing and accessories; let them liven up their love lives with a little experimentation.

Build new "love hotels" in central and suburban areas. It is hard to make out as a young couple in Singapore in a small condo with the inlaws making dinner outside; the sister playing computer games and the other relatives clacking mah jong tiles. Singaporean couples needs somewhere to go to for fun; themed rooms; clean, nice music, helpful tv channels, and no social stigma attached.

Liberalise web censorship. The best censor is your own judgment and taste.

Stop national service. Two or more years of boot camp does little for male creativity or heterosexuality!

A few thoughts; anyone care to comment !?

Air Asia take flak from the Bangkok Post

2 December 2004

The following is a report in today's travel section of the Bangkok Post; followed by my letter to the editor and travel section (Horizons) editor of the newspaper. It would be equally scurrilous, but quite plausible, that the story and its prominent coverage was a plant from one of the major airlines:

from the Bangkok Post; Horizons: 2 December 2004

Air Asia flight has passengers waiting five hours

Alfred Hitchcock would approve

1 December 2004

In a scene reminiscent of "The Birds" in Hitchcock's 1963 movie the south of Thailand is about to be dumped on by 80 million origami birds.

Actually the precise number is 80,964,055 origami birds as of last night according to Mr. Yuranant Phamornmontree, the newly-elected Deputy Government Spokesman. How can he be that accurate? The paper birds will be air-dropped on the southern border provinces on 5 December--His Majesty the King's birthday.

In the past week everywhere you look there have been people folding paper cranes. Offices and apartment buildings have collection boxes. Our office has instructions for crane folding on the notice board - in Japanese!

NOVEMBER 2004

China is hot

30 November 2004

Continuing the China them for this month this is a Canadian report on Chinese efforts to secure the natural resources that it needs to support her rapid economic growth. I will put all the China articles into a separate section on this web site. The story of China's economic growth and potential dominance of world trade will be one of the stories of this decade. By 2010 China will be a juggernaut; the issues will be whether she is under control or not; and if she is a friend or a foe not just of Asian nations but globally.

China frantic for energy supplies

Beijing looking to Canada and beyond for sources of oil, gas, electricity and coal

Zimbabwe farce

26 November 2004

A Mickey Mouse Disney

24 November 2004

Disney has set the opening date as 12 September 2005. They have also crowed that Disney Hong Kong will be cheaper than any other Disney site in the world.

And so it will - on weekdays. Go on a weekend and you can add 20% to the price. Remember that this is the soft opening price only. Initially only some of the rides will be operational.

Also remember that the Hong Kong park is only 1% (yes - one per cent!) the size of DIsneyworld in Florida.

It really is not worth bleating here how Hong Kong was taken to the cleaners by Disney Corp. It is not worth repeating here just how much the clean up of Penny's Bay on Lantau has cost  the Hong Kong people.

This was not a good contract for Hong Kong. But it will bring visitors and it will stimulate spending. My little guy (seven years old) is already talking about it. Ocean Park will hurt after DIsney opens. Indeed Ocean Park may well become a prime real estate site.

And there is a multiplier effect. We cannot just look at the revenues and costs related to DIsney directly. Visitors will come and they will spend, not just at Disney.

I just hope the 7 year old is not too disappointed. Its going to be a rather mickey mouse Disney.

China's military ambitions

23 November 2004

The dispatch of a Chinese nuclear submarine into Japanese waters raised the political temperature in East Asia and has set many people thinking where China's military ambitions may start and end.

Clearly they can win hearts and minds through economic strength; relations with Zimbabwe, see below, are testament to that.

But China's vast consumption of natural resources from oil to gas to water to steel to potash may mean that China has to obtain access to resources deep in the heart of other nations. China can but those resources and he held ransom to foreigners controlling the supply and pricing. Or China can acquire those resources, preferably through business and economic acquisition. But there are other means.

China's borders include N Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and the 'Stans (Pakistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakstan. The latter have significant undeveloped resources.

One provocative article, published today in the Washington Times, follows. The global balance of power is changing. It is a new reality, a new industrial revolution. While the 20th century witnessed the rise of America. The 21st century will witness the rise and dominance of China. Be prepared. And if you choose, embrace the new reality. Being a part of this change may just give people the opportunity to ensure that the checks and balances are in place to safeguard lives and freedoms.

23 November 2004

China's bold displays


By William Hawkins

 The scariest ride I ever had was not at an amusement park. It was the ride I took two weeks ago through Shanghai, China, from Hongqiao International Airport to the Bund area along the Huangpu riverfront. It was just after dark, and this mammoth city was lit up in an awe-inspiring display the likes of which I had not seen even in Beijing.

    Shanghai has a skyline that puts New York or Chicago to shame, but it also has a larger population than New York and Chicago combined. Mile after mile of new high-rise office buildings, many boosting the names of the world's major corporations, make a stunning proclamation of wealth and power. Unlike the boxy concrete and steel designs I had seen in Tokyo, the Shanghai skyline looks like a "city of the future" as envisioned by science-fiction artists. With these grandiose designs, China is sending a clear message to the world that it is playing for real. That is something to stir nightmares.

    American security concerns have focused on terrorism and the Middle East. This is understandable, as Muslim terrorists plot more American deaths. Yet, terrorism is the weapon of the weak. It cannot change the global balance of power. And Islamic fundamentalism is a backward-looking doctrine of social and economic stagnation.

    The rise of China challenges the global balance, and is already transforming how the world works. Endowing an empire of 1.3 billion people with modern industry, technology and capital gives the strong Beijing central government immense resources with which to support its ambitions.

    China is driven by impassioned nationalism and the limitless energy of capitalism, a combination that will rock the world.

    Military threats always loom largest in the public mind, and China is creating such a danger. My visits to Beijing and Shanghai were preludes to the real reason for my trip, which was to attend the fifth Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai. This event is held every two years. It has two purposes: to showcase China's advancements and attract U.S. and other Western companies who want to sell technology and systems to Beijing.

    China's space program was highlighted, from the capsule astronaut Yang Liwei used to orbit the Earth in 2003 to animated videos of Chinese plans to land on the moon and exploit its resources. Most of the displays, however, were devoted to Chinese fighters, remotely piloted (unmanned) military aircraft, helicopter gunships and missiles of all types.

    The displays clearly showed there is no segregation of civilian and military aviation activities. The Chinese aerospace industry is run by the state. Its largest agency is Aviation Industries of China I (AVIC I). Its displays featured, side by side, a variety of civilian airliners and its numerous military projects for fighters, bombers, military transports and reconnaissance aircraft. Its sister organization, AVIC II, which was split off in 1999 to create competition and improve management, concentrates more on business jets, helicopters and missiles. One display featured a row of cruise and air-to-air missiles under a large poster of a corporate jet, again showing the guiding Chinese principle of "Jun-min jiehe" — combine the military and the civil.

    This principle was very evident in the two halls devoted to American and Western firms trying to sell high-tech products to China. These firms are only supposed to be civilian development firms. But that line cannot be drawn, and it is doubtful those marketing their wares in this booming market care.

    Italian Deputy Minister of Defense Salvator Cicu was on hand for the signing of a co-production agreement between Agusta Westland and AVIC II for a new helicopter design. Italy, along with France and Germany, have pressed the European Union to lift its arms embargo on China. But the embargo has long been undermined by sale of dual-use equipment and technology to Beijing. Helicopters are a prime example. Why else would a defense official celebrate a putatively civilian project?

    Two identical remotely piloted helicopters were displayed — one configured for crop dusting, the other for military reconnaissance. It takes little imagination to see how the crop duster might be used with chemical or biological weapons.

    American companies have been just as guilty as European firms in helping China improve its capabilities. Boeing had a large mural at its booth touting not only how many airliners it had sold to China but also how much production work it had outsourced to Chinese industry, how many Chinese engineers and technical workers it had trained, and how much it was investing in Chinese research facilities.

    U.S. officials have lobbied against any lifting of the EU weapons embargo on China. Yet, how can the Europeans take American arguments seriously when the Bush administration (and the Clinton administration before it) have not only turned a blind eye to the role of U.S. firms in advancing Beijing's development, but have encouraged it under the rubric of "commercial engagement?" Which is worse: Europeans selling weapons to China, or Americans teaching the Chinese how to build their own weapons?
    
    William Hawkins is senior fellow for national security studies at the U.S. Business and Industry Council.
    
For China economics comes first

23 November 2004

It is rather depressing to witness the cosy relationship that has developed between China and the despotic regime in Zimbabwe. Indeed it may well be that it is only access to Chinese money that preserves the Mugabe government. Neither country has a proud record on human rights and clearly this is of little concern to all consuming China.

The latest trade news between the two countries sees Air Zimbabwe announcing twice weekly flights to Beijing supporting Chinese investment in that country which tops US$600 million.

Chinese advisors trained Zimbabwe's nationalist troops in the liberation struggle of the 1970s. After independence in 1980 China retained an economic interest extending its support as other nations stopped providing aid. Confronted by 700% inflation, 70% unemployment, food shortages, Aids epidemics and world isolation Zimbabwe has increasingly looked to China for support.

There are estimated to be 9,000 Chinese working in Zimbabwe on power, infrastructure and telecoms projects. Zimbabwe also acquire military equipment from China.

In return China gets access to Zimbabwe's mineral wealth, including platinum, gold and diamonds. This is just a part of China's acquisition of Africa; China-Africa trade is expected to exceed US$20 billion in 2004.

Henry Olonga used to play cricket for Zimbabwe. Yes, he is black. He is also in exile after wearing a black armband in a cricket match as a symbol of the death of democracy.

In an interview in London yesterday he said of his homeland "There are human rights abuses, the lack of an impartial judiciary, the collapse of the health system in the face of the HIV Aids epidemic, the collapse of law and order, the targeting of political opponents."

As China acquires what it needs to sustain domestic growth economics takes priority over right and wrong.

Crane mail in Thailand

23 November 2004

The Thai Prime Minister's latest gesture to appease the troubled south is a massive littering exercise involving plane loads of origami peace bombs.

The coming war over Taiwan

19 November 2004

It is hard to see where an acceptable compromise can be found in relations between Taiwan and China.

The vitriolic war of words continues and the stakes get higher with the passage of time. It is a simple matter of Chinese nationalism; of Chinese pride, and of a deep seated sense of what right. Taiwan will never be allowed to exist as a separate nation; the best that she can hope for is a certain amount of self determination along the lines of a Hong Kong or Macau. But Taiwan's independent, free-thinking, self-determining and democratic world will not be allowed to continue.

The mainland communists and the remnants of the KMT form unlikely bed fellows but they share the goal of a united China. It is a mess. President Chen in Taiwan is pushing for a referendum and a new constitution by 2008 that would embrace the principles of an independent Taiwanese nation. China will never let this happen.

Do not rule out a Chinese invasion. This depressing scenario was outlined over lunch a few days ago and is a worryingly plausible scenario. Consider the following:

1) China needs air superiority over Taiwan; it is close.

2) Air superiority would allow a massive sea borne invasion (Germany's plan for Britain in 1940). China has the troops and the landing craft.

3) The gamble is that the US would not intervene. It is a fair gamble. The US has two basic problems. Defense spending cuts and Iraq. Both mean that the US has limited force to fight another war in a far off land that frankly most of her people have little interest in.

4) The world's economic dependence on China is such that normal relations would be quickly re-established. Sad; but it is the reality. An invasion of Taiwan would be considered a domestic issue allowing, as soon as it is safe to do so, normal trade and investment to quickly continue, probably led by the perfidious French.

5) China's nuclear submarine did not suddenly get lost in Japanese waters last week. GPS solves that. The consensus is that the sub had a mission to test Japanese and US response times and reaction to an incursion into their territorial waters.

6) The UN will not intervene. A censure or two. Easily managed.

7) The threat of losing or of a major boycott of the 2008 Olympics is far less important that the recovery of Taiwan.

It would be a short and sharp campaign. This would probably lead to Taiwan suing for a peace that allows them to maintain some part of their livelihood and economy.

It is hard to see what the alternative might be. China wants a solution before too many years pass by. The longer Taiwan remains independent the more the people grow accustomed to that independence. It will never happen.

Thaksin likely to attend APEC

18 November 2004

Reversing his earlier decision, and probably causing great uncertainty to his hosts, Thai Prime Minster Thaksin has said that he will now attend the APEC meeting this weekend in Santiago.

He must have been reading my earlier column urging him to attend.

However, his new jet will remain grounded. The specially configured Airbus A319, which the Thai press has dubbed Air Force One, can carry only 36 people - far less than the size of the delegation - and would require multiple refuelling stops to get halfway around the world.

Officials say Thaksin will instead make his trip in a Thai Airways MD-11, which raises the question: why have a prime ministerial jet in the first place?

Hong Kong rolls over but it is not enough

17 November 2004

Here was my 16 October story about China's world cup woes. Only one team qualifies from this group for the second qualifying round of the World Cup. And it is not China; despite beating Hong Kong by a laughable 7-0 China is left with the same goal difference as Kuwait and has scored one goal less after Kuwait's 6-1 win over hapless Malaysia.

China's great sporting dreams lie in footballing tatters in Guangzhou. One more injury time goal would have been enough.

There have been serious scandals in the Chinese football league. And China now has 4 years to clean up and reform its football programme and rebuild for the next qualifying campaign.

Hong Kong were woeful. It was like watching a very poor training game. They were just not quite woeful enough.

Overdosed on Arafat

November 13, 2004

Every time that I have switched on CNN over the last week I have been confronted by Yasser Arafat. In Ramallah. Being sent by helicopter and French government plane to his hospital in France. Being visited in hospital by a self serving French President,  and eventually being buried in crazy scenes.

Who was this; was this some great world leader who had brought peace to our times. Was the a man who had somehow changed and bettered our world. Was this the leader of a great and prosperous nation. Was this a Mao or a Gandhi?

No, it was the man who created modern day terrorism.

Let's face it; this guy was hardly a saint. Yet all the fawning coverage of CNN and some other media might mislead you into thinking that Arafat was a great statesman of the world. He was a leader without a state.

Arafat was first and foremost a terrorist. He was also the long time symbol of the Palestinians' hope for an independent state. It is fair to say that the stalemate between Israel and Palestine fuels Muslim anger and gives credence to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. But peace in the Middle East requires dialogue and trust; and Israel could never trust Arafat. Meanwhile other than giving the Palestinian people a sense of national identity it is hard to actually see what in reality he did for his people other than encouraging them to blame Israel for all that was wrong. It is easy to have a common enemy. Arafat continued to promote the strongest anti-Jewish sentiment since Hitler's Germany.

Arafat did little to start the reforms that successful statehood require; competent governance, public welfare and infrastructure projects; tackling corruption and condemning state sponsored terrorism. He took funds away from the Palestinian people; he hid funds in Swiss bank accounts; and maybe in France. Those funds will be the subject of a long future fight for access and ownership.

What CNN in all their eulogising seem to have forgotten is that Arafat ordered the death of thousands of men, women and children.

Why did he die; the French hospital and authorities have said nothing. Poisoning must be a possibility.

The best thing that can be said for Arafat's passing is that there may now be a greater chance of a reasoned and peacefully negotiated settlement in the Middle East led by people who respect life rather than destroy it.

One year on the Thai PM snubs APEC

November 12, 2004

One year ago Bangkok was brought to a grinding halt by the annual gathering of Asia Pacific leaders known as APEC.  One year ago Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra made a huge play of his role as a leader of ASEAN and as the central figure and host for the 2003 meeting.

This year the Thai PM has decided that events in the south are sufficiently important for him to stay as home and send a deputy in his place.

This is a poor decision and is particularly ungrateful after the huge show of support given by APEC leaders to Thailand last year.

Meanwhile President GW Bush is fighting a huge war in Iraq - but he will still be attending. Chinese President Hu Jintao will be there despite unrest in Henan province. He will be looking to seal deals for future energy resources.

It would been a good opportunity for the Thai PM to discuss the southern troubles with Muslim leaders from the region including the Malaysian PM and the new Indonesian President. Thailand could also have pushed a number of free trade discussions with Japan, New Zealand, Peru and the USA.

The meeting is in Chile; yes it is a long way to go. And it is true that Thai Air Force One will need to re-fuel a few times to get there. But Thaksin would devalue the meeting by not being there and is snubbing the same leaders who gave him such a strong endorsement last year. This will not be forgotten.

The meeting is on November 20/21. I hasty reconsideration would be welcome.

In the deep rough at Muang Kaew

November 9, 2004

Muang Kaew is one of the closest golf courses to Central Bangkok. It has been considerably rebuilt over the last three years, The course was redesigned; the greens rebuilt; new memberships sold, the clubhouse, restaurant and locker rooms all redesigned. Even the caddies were properly trained.

All of this work was completed under the supervision of a company owned by two Canadian investors, Siam Golf Properties Co. Ltd.

Siam Golf were apparently operating under a 10 year lease that appears to have had a renewal clasue built into it at the three year point.

Siam Golf appear to have found out the hard way that contract discussions can take many different forms in Thailand.

The owners of Muang Kaew for the last 10 years are a company called Sannan Golf. Before Siam Golf Properties were appointed to manage the course it was it quite poor condition and was suffering financially.

Last month Siam Golf received letter saying that they were being evicted for breach if contract. The alleged breaches included failure to tend to the trees or to remove dead plants. From a personal view these allegations make little sense; the course condition improves all the time despite being heavily played.

On the evening of 31 October police arrived at the course to evict Siam Golf. I have heard, but cannot yet confirm, that all of Siam Golf's property at the club such as pro shop stock was removed. The owners of Siam Golf were barred from entering the property. The next day Siam Golf arrived with their own security personnel and police. The two groups of police each representing a different side in this dispute then stood toe to toe; probably not offering eachother putting tips.

Siam Golf withdrew their militia; they then filed a Baht 220 million breach of contract suit and also approached the Canadian Embassy for assistance. The Canadian Ambassador, who frankly should have more important things to do, then wrote to the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressing concern that due legal process may not have been followed and that the actions of Sannan Golf may send "a very negative message to foreign investors."

Siam Golf have been granted an audience with representatives of the Thai Prime Minister to try and seek a mediated solution.

There has to be more to this story than is reported in the newspapers. Among obvious questions are who is now managing the club; what happens to existing memberships; and who has the funds from new memberships issued over the last few years.

How offensive can you get?

November 5 2004

The front page of yesterday's UK Daily Mirror was about as offensive as it is possible to be. Accusing 59 million people of being DUMB is arrogant, ill-considered and wholly inappropriate.

The USA is blessed with many many millions of thoughtful, talented, entrepreneurial, and well-educated people who work honestly in the best interests of themselves, their family and their nation.

Like it or not they are a first world country and a first world military power. They are also the world's largest donor of foreign aid and a major force in ensuring at least a degree of personal freedoms and the spread of democracy over the last 20 years.

The USA is the first rate nation that so many in the world still look enviously towards for leadership and for opportunity.

I have sent the following letter to the Daily Mirror:

Supermarket trolley drivers terrorise Bangkok

November 4 2004

You can tell a great deal about how people might behave behind the wheel of a car when you watch them wheeling their shopping trolley around the supermarket.

The latter is a particularly alarming experience in Bangkok and a good reason why the best advise is to keep off the streets.

My local supermarket is the TOPS market at the Silom Complex. It is a little older than some of the newer stores; the aisles are relatively narrow and the store is busy.

The situation is not helped by a large number of promotional stalls that sit in the centre of the widest aisles encouraging shoppers to stop, park their trolley and have an extended social chat with new friends. The seafood girl dressed as a mermaid looked particularly in need of a new job.

It is also a trolley driver's nightmare. On a recent visit the following arrestable offences were seen:

All of this could be avoided by an effective one way system; wider aisles; effective training programmes for new shoppers or on the spot fines for reckless endangerment with a shopping cart.

You have been warned.

Pathetic; the world's so called greatest democracy held hostage by Ohio

November 3 2004

After a nine month campaign and a US$4 billion bill the USA and the world deserve better than to be held hostage by petty officials in a petty state.

Ohio has 20 votes in the electoral college. The state's top election official has said that those provisional and absentee ballots would not be counted for 11 days, and he urged Americans to "take a deep breath and relax."

What sort of nonsense is this? The USA demands clear leadership. Count the ballots now and let's move on.

Kerry is beginning to look like as good a loser as Arsenal. Time to lose gracefully and move on.

Fox News and NBC now follow rascott.com

November 3, 2004

At 1.30pm EDT Fox and NBC have declared that Bush will win Ohio and will secure enough votes for another four year term. Other political news site such as Slate had declared in favour of the Democrats.

Once more the US media has underestimated Bush and the organisational abilities of the Republicans. Once more the US media is totally out of touch with the US heartlands.

In Washington DC 90% of the vote went to John Kerry. Washington is home to all the media, lobbyists and federal civil servants. No wonder GW Bush looks so ill at ease in Washington. No one likes him there.

Bush is a man of Crawford, Texas. This is where he knows and understands the pulse of the people and their expectations of his leadership.

I dont like him and I wish the Democrats had performed better. But Kerry was a poor candidate at a time when the US and the world deserved someone of stature and credibility.

rascott.com predicts Bush win

November 3 2004

It is 11.20pm in New York. With votes still being counted in key states of Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio rascott.com calls a Bush win in the US Presidential race and depressingly resigns itself to another 4 years of the Bush administration.

Bush appears likely to win 278 of the electoral college votes; comfortable beating the 270 he needs for a majority.

America's most wanted back on video

November 1 2004

Bin Laden lives. I guess that is no surprise; sadly.

The Americans are naive if they really think that Bin Laden is not trying to influence Tuesday's US election. Bin Laden wants, in fact needs, a George Bush win. What use is their in waging a jihad if the enemy does not want to play? Al-Qaida needs a Bush win; Bush is reviled throughout the Muslim world. He is the enemy.

So Bin Laden appears on video for the first time since 2001. Conveniently the weekend before the US election. The timing is hardly a coincidence. Scare the people. So what does Mr. Bin Laden do to fill his time each day. You have to assume that he works full time on his next attack on US or western interests. Planning, funding, approving, plotting.

Al-Qaida is fighting a war not for money or lives; but for the hearts and minds of the people. It is fighting from a position of extremis. Their preferred fight is against the opposite extreme; al-Qaida needs the Muslim world to see Bush and his cohorts as being as extreme as they themselves are portrayed.

Bin Laden is al-Qaida's Michael Moore - a man who knows how to manipulate with a video tape.

Vote Kerry; it's not a great choice but it is the only choice

November 1 2004

The Economist rather cruelly describes the US election as a choice between the Incompetent or the Incoherent. Maybe it is a choice between the incompetent and the incapable.

George W Bush has to go. I just wish that his opponent was more decisive; less prone to compromise; less wordy and less opportunistic.

This has been an election campaign fought between two deeply flawed men; neither of whom deserve to lead a great nation. Bush has never seemed up to the job. He simply does not have the grasp of facts and the broadness of thought to lead and to earn respect. To make progress individuals and nations have to admit to mistakes and to learn from them. Bush has never admitted to error over Iraq; even over Abu Ghraib. And mistakes made by this administration have cost America dearly, financially, in lives and in credibility.

Kerry wins because change is necessary. He wins because he is not party to the Christian fundamentalists. He wins because his policy in issues such as abortion, gay marriages and stem cell research are more acceptable. But this election is not likely to be about domestic issues. It is about foreign policy and the safety of Americans. It is a long time since the USA last stood so isolated from the rest of the world.

Kerry voted for the Iraq war; earlier this year he claimed to support it. He now describes it as a mistake. So be it. He is an opportunist who wants to be elected.

Mr. Bush is incapable of change and he lacks the will, international support and credibility to succeed in repairing America's position in the world. He has no moral authority. He has called for accountability, He now needs to be held to account.

Re-defeat Bush on Tuesday.

More real life from Pattaya today

November 1 2004

Pattaya remains Thailand's most bizarre town - a melting pot of weirdness!  And Pattaya Today yes it is still every fortnight so should not be Pattaya Today) has all the best stories: here are a few headlines:

British Visitor dies of stroke after coffee. I know it should not make me smile; at least he was not in Starbucks.

Police Impersonator rapes woman. This ought to be a worrying story; But this is a Thai girl allegedly duped by a Thai impersonating the brown uniform of a police officer who took her to a remote area near a rail track and attacked her. She cannot remember what his uniform looked like or check his id. He then apparently returned her to rejoin her boyfriend in South Pattaya. But the boyfriend was not much use because he was "drunk from a lengthy binge." I smell a rat !

Crippled man falls off pier; friend left holding wheelchair. A French national was being pushed along Bali Hai pier by his Thai girlfriend. She was distracted. She looked around and the wheelchair was empty. The man, who had taken a drink or two" might have lent forward to obtain a better view. "He could not swim and proceeded to call out for salvation from a watery end."

Ladyboy bandit chooses victim; don't be cuddled by strangers at night. "The gender bender (named Boy) offered to accompany Mr. Wright back to his hotel for a gay time; an offer which the farang courteously but firmly refused." As the foreigner tried to move away Boy threw both arms around him in a move faking undying affection for strangers. His wallet gone, Mr. Wright reported to the police. "Not surprisingly the thief in high heels had disappeared from view to count his ill gotten gains."

Unlucky farang almost ends up in dump area. "He was unconscious, probably drugged as well as drunk and had no ID description of any kind. It was noted he had black hair but this could describe most men in Pattaya."

OCTOBER 2004

Fears for Thailand's south

Arsenal pay the penalty at Manchester United

Ethiopia: Twenty Years on

Ethiopia has plenty of water. Lake Tana is the source of the Blue Nile; which on its own keeps Egypt alive. Yet 9 out of 10 Ethiopians survive on the rains; but too much rain washes away the fertile lands. And too little rain is famine and drought.

Food production in 2004 is one third what it was in 1984. Only one in eight Ethiopians lives in a town; the lowest number anywhere in the world. The marxist government keeps its people on the land. It does not want them to starve but appears committed to a simplistic marxist ideology that keeps people poor.

Ethiopia is caught in a cycle of hopelessness and dependency. The rest of the world gets to give Ethiopia just enough and just in time.

We are ashamed to let the people die; but we only do just enough to keep them just alive.

It simply is not enough to save a life - we have to make the life we have saved worth living. Ethiopia gets the world's lowest development aid of any needy nation. Its government wastes appallingly - building new airport terminals for its capital and hotels to host the fat cat politicians and comfortable UN leaders.

I don't know the answers; I only know how angry it makes me. Bush went to Africa on a five day jolly. He has not mentioned the continent since. He fights unnecessary wars in Iraq while the people of Africa starve. One answer at least is remove Bush.

******************************

Michael Buerk's report on his return to Ethiopia is on the Africa page.

The BBC's Ethiopia country profile is here.

End the barbaric bullfight

October 14 2004

It was rather surreal. I was in bed in my hotel room in Beijing; it is 2.00am and on TVE they are showing bullfighting? The British have recently passed a law that bans fox hunting. The Spanish should do the same with bullfighting.

The bullfight is part of Spain's history and I am sure that many people regard it as a spectacle. It is cruel and barbaric.

The matador moves like an over-dressed ballerina. He slowly wears the bull down. The bull is stabbed in the back with dart like weapons. For some reason the bull continues to drive at the red cape waved before it. Not at the sequined slaughterer who is about to take its life. Are bulls really that dumb.

The matador then stabs his sword into the neck of the bull. Death is not instant - do not believe apologists who tell you that it is. The bull is enraged. Two or three more matadors enter the ring to distract the fatally wounded beast. Some five minutes after the fatal wound is inflicted the bull falls to its knees. Rolls over and dies. And the crowd goes wild.

 The matador does a lap of honour. The bull is dragged out of the ring.

This is wrong.

The brutal murder of Ken Bigley

October 9 2004

Ken Bigley was beheaded on Thursday by a militant gang led by the Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which had earlier murdered the two US men taken hostage along with Mr Bigley, Eugene Armstrong and Jack Hensley. Ken Bigely was a 62-year-old British man working as an engineer in Iraq while only weeks from retirement with his Thai wife in a village in her home country.

Bigley was in Iraq because Bush and Blair invaded the country. Bigley was there as part of the multi-national team of contractors trying to rebuild the infrastructure.

His is one of the many daily senseless, brutal deaths. But his more than any is cold calculated and barbaric. He has been held for 22 days; paraded in videos; a pawn for the extremists.

For once I am with the UK's Sun newspaper. And this will be the popular sentiment in Britain.

I know that more violence will lead to more violence. But I do believe that al-Zargawi is an extremist; that he does not enjoy popular support in Iraq; he is simply feared. And I do believe that eliminating him and those close to him is necessary if Iraq is to be stabilised and these horrific hostage murders brought to an end.

Indeed it does surprise me that the US and British forces have not got to him yet. He and his followers can provide video to Arab TV stations; they can run their own web sites. They can hold hostages for weeks. Yet apparently we cannot find them. That only shows that quite simply the Iraqi troops are not strong or effective enough and that the Americans and British do not have enough troops on the ground to be effective.

There is a reasonable and proper fear of collateral damage and the loss of innocent Iraqi life in any attack on al-Zarqawi. There is also the US and UK political fear that any attack on him will lead to significant troop losses and that would be politically damaging.

But now, more than ever before, Blair has reason and public support for a full out assault on the worst of the terrorists. I am with the Sun (I never thought I would say that) - Nail the Bastards.

Outsourcing myself

October 7 2004

The evil empire, better know as the Company that I used to work for, has just announced the outsourcing of its financial markets reporting to Bangalore, that well known global financial hub !

Recognising the significant cost savings that might be available I feel my readers should be aware that I am planning to outsource the content production of rascott.com.

My question is where should I outsource myself to? Maybe Pitcairn. No strangers to sensational reality stories from mutinies to pedophilia, my readers would be guaranteed a stream of News Corporation style excess.

Maybe to the Pentagon. They have a proven ability to make up stories, distort facts and yet present then as incontrovertible truths. The sort of compelling content that this site needs.

Maybe to John Howard or Tony Blair. One or both of them should be looking for new work in the near future. I would outsource it to the soon to be unemployed George Bush but my reader deserves words with more than one syllable.

Maybe to the South China Morning Post; once upon a time a decent newspaper; now producing more tedious propaganda than China Daily. My reader would be in the enviable position of having absolutely no idea what is happening in the real world.

Not very attractive alternatives; guess I had better carry on !

The US are electing the wrong candidates

October 6, 2004

This morning's one-off Vice Presidential debate was a classic of its kind. It had been built up by the media as having unusual significance given the close polling of the two presidential candidates.

The two VP nominees, Cheney and Edwards, both wealthy, articulate and white went at it from the start. This was real reality TV. Like a heavyweight prize fight. They behaved within the rules which sadly mean no interruptions, shouting or fisticuffs. But they were certainly both looking to score points.

Dick Cheney is scary. But he deserves respect and he batted well for his side. He is quietly convincing. But he is weak on his actions as CEO of Haliburton and Edwards played to this vulnerability.

Edwards is a professional prosecution lawyer. He looks and sounds like he was on 'LA Law". He and Susan Dey would have looked good together!

My take at the end of 90 minutes was a high scoring draw. It was an articulate debate. They may stretch facts to their own arguments but their command of details and arguments was impressive. And frankly, both sounded more articulate and more credible than the two Presidential candidates that they are supporting.

 SEPTEMBER 2004

Bartlet, CJ and me

The West Wing depicts an idealistic White House where everyone tries to make the world a better place. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith doesn't fall for the politics, but still loves the show

Wednesday September 29, 2004
The Guardian

A couple of years ago I was waiting in the West Wing of the White House to talk to President Bush about the post-9/11 world. The mission to overthrow Saddam Hussein was already on the administration's agenda. My head was full of thoughts about the meeting, but my assistant was looking distracted: an avid fan of television's The West Wing, she was comparing the real thing with the scenes from the programme. We were a few yards from the most powerful man on the planet but it was the world of Josiah Bartlet that was exciting her.

The problem for Hong Kong's democrats

12 September 2004

The problem for Hong Kong's democrats is that the greater the vote the democrats receive the less Beijing will move in a direction that supports change.

The stakes in Mainland China are simply too high.

Hong Kong votes today. The only city or region governed from Beijing that has any sort of democracy. There are 3.2 million registered voters. But in the end the turnout may only be 50%. After all there is shopping to do and money to be made. And voting is a distraction.

The Economist summed this all up neatly in this commentary.

Beware Beijing’s backlash


Elections for Hong Kong’s pseudo-parliament, the Legislative Council, will be held this weekend. The authorities in mainland China are worried that the result may not go their way. But the bigger the vote for Hong Kong’s democrats, the smaller the chance of real democracy

AS BEFITS a place more interested in money than ideals, Hong Kong has never set much store by elections—this weekend’s poll is only the seventh ever to be held in the former British colony. This time, however, will be different. The significance of Sunday’s vote lies less in who is being elected—the 60 members of the Legislative Council (Legco), Hong Kong’s pseudo-parliament, have little real power—than in the message it will send China about the desire of the territory’s 7m-odd people to preserve, and indeed increase, their political freedom. It may not be a democratic vote, but it will be a referendum on democracy.

The reason is that the political climate in Hong Kong has changed out of all recognition since the last election four years ago. Under the Basic Law, the constitution drafted in the run-up to the colony’s 1997 handover to China, Hong Kong was to move towards full democracy, while its current political rights were preserved—an arrangement summarised by the slogan “one country, two systems”. In practice, the population cared little about politics as long as everyone continued to get richer.

But following a long economic slump, the local government (instructed by Beijing) last year made a clumsy and ultimately unsuccessful attempt to force through an anti-subversion bill, known as Article 23, which would have given it the power to search without a warrant. That sparked a groundswell of democratic feeling culminating in huge demonstrations in July 2003 and again this year. Hong Kong people have woken up to the fact that their rights, far from being augmented, are in danger of eroding—and this new-found political consciousness appears to be outlasting the current economic recovery.

China’s response has been club-footed. On the one hand, Beijing has taken a softly softly approach. In the wake of last year’s protests, it offered economic support, including lifting restrictions on mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong, while distancing itself from its own appointee in the territory, the unpopular chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa. In the run-up to these elections, China has also allowed some of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy legislators to visit the mainland. And this week it tried to stir up patriotic fervour by having its Olympic gold medallists parade through the territory. If the excited teenagers watching were anything to go by, this particular ploy is working: many said they felt proud to be part of China.

Still, the mainland authorities have little overall progress to show for their generosity, and they have thus increasingly resorted to hardline tactics and direct intervention in the elections—which is starting to worry international observers as well as locals. In April, Beijing—without warning—ruled out the possibility of direct elections of all of Legco and the chief executive until at least 2012. Pro-government newspapers have recently justified China’s interference in Hong Kong politics by quoting the late Chinese leader, Deng Xiaoping, as saying: “Intervention is sometimes necessary. It depends on whether the intervention serves the interest of Hong Kong.”

There has also been a rash of conveniently timed political scandals involving pro-democracy legislators who, along with journalists and non-governmental organisations, claim they have been threatened in a variety of ways. There are reports that some voters are being pressured by triad gangsters working for Beijing to photograph their ballot slips as proof of how they voted, or risk harm to their family or the loss of their job. New York-based Human Rights Watch published a 42-page report on Thursday, concluding that the past year has been the worst climate for civil and political rights in Hong Kong since the 1997 handover.

The report accuses Beijing of manipulating the election to favour pro-China candidates. It highlights the detention without trial (for six months of “re-education”) of a Democratic party candidate, Alex Ho, for allegedly hiring a prostitute in southern China. Explicit photographs of a scantily clad Mr Ho were released by mainland police and widely published this week, raising cries about dirty campaigning. Emily Lau, an outspoken democrat who upset China by visiting the renegade island of Taiwan last year, has received death threats, had excrement smeared on her office door and her house broken into. Three outspoken broadcasters have resigned after receiving threats.
 

Despite all these shenanigans, there is no guarantee of a huge turnout on Sunday in support of the pro-democracy parties. The University of Hong Kong’s Public Opinion Programme predicts a turnout of only 49-53%—no higher than the 1998 record (which was largely achieved because the government handed out sets of souvenir cards to voters).

In any case, the pro-democracy groups are very unlikely to get a majority of Legco seats due to the skewed electoral system. Only half of the 60 seats are elected in the way most people in the West would recognise: via (proportional representation) voting in geographical constituencies. The other 30 are chosen via so-called functional constituencies, where limited groups of voters—mostly with business interests and so pro-government—have the right to select MPs. For example, the territory’s professions, such as teachers, accountants and doctors, each get to elect one legislator. And even among normal voters, there are many who see an increasing need to stay on Beijing’s good side, given the territory’s increasing integration with the mainland.

But even if the Democrats and their allies fall short of a majority, most polls predict that they will win 26 or 27 seats (a gain of some five) and possibly a majority of the total votes cast—which is why the Chinese authorities are so worried this time. Their reaction to such a result would most likely be a continuation of their good cop, bad cop tactics—they are too smart to risk outright repression. While they may try to win over hearts and minds by replacing Mr Tung, they will be doubly determined to reintroduce the shelved anti-subversion bill at an opportune time.

More importantly, success for the pro-democracy camp would reaffirm the view in Beijing that further political concessions would cause Hong Kong to slip away on a path to independence, just as Taiwan has. And that is something the current regime in China can never allow, because it could, Mao forbid, spill over into calls for freedom on the mainland itself.

Your Bangkok subway guide

12 September 2004

Bangkok's clean, efficient and Singapore like subway system only has one line at present but it can take you to some of the city's more interesting sites.

Start  at HUA LAMPHONG. One exit goes directly into Bangkok's main railway station. You are also a few minutes ride from Chinatown. SAM YAN the next stop gets you to Chulalongkorn University and to the Wat Hua Lamponh temple. Onto SILOM which is a short walk to the Saladaeng BTS station. Plenty to eat around here on Silom, Saladaeng and Convent. Also close to Patpong but why would you want to go there? At LUMPINI you can jump out and watch the boxing; go to the splendid park, or jump on a motorcycle taxi down Wireless Road to the embassies and All Seasons Place. There is also access from the station to the night market at Suan Lum Night Bazaar.

At Klong Toey there is little to mention beyond a late night market. So go onto the Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre. The next stop SUKHUMVIT gives access to the BTS at Asok. Soi Cowboy is close by. The Westin and Sheraton are nearby. Heading north now the next stop is PETCHABURI. I really do not know what is here. Though the Amari Atrium is not far away and Petchaburi has a variety of soapy to get a good bath and massage.

The RAMA IX stop lets you exit to the Fortune Hotel and to the IT Mall and the Tesco/Lotus store. The THAI CULTURAL CENTRE is in fact thirty minutes walk away from the centre. Nearby are Jusco, Home Pro, Carrefour and Robinson.   

The subway has been nicknamed the soapy express and the next couple of stops explain why. The HUAI KWANG stop is next to the Emerald Hotel and to an assortment of massage houses and Chinese seafood restaurants.

SUTTHISAN is the stop for the one stop service center for visas and work permits. Plenty of male oriented entertainment here as well.

RATCHADA is close to the Chaophya Park Hotel. There are Korean BBQ restaurants here.

LAT PHRAO and PRAHON YOTHIN are residential areas and also offer park and ride access to the subway. Then MORCHIT's exit one takes you into the park at Chatuchak; it is a short walk to the weekend market. There is also nearby BTS access. This station gets very busy at the weekend. Two more stops at KAMPHAENG PHET and BANG SUE.

Wait till the rainy season stops and then go our and explore....

England should not tour Zimbabwe

12 September 2004

Putting commercial interests ahead of simple decency England have agreed to a November cricket tour of Zimbabwe. This is wrong.

Players appear to be under unreasonable pressure to comply with this tour; their professional livelihoods and careers are at stake.

The players are being sent a document from a human rights organisation which refers to arrest, torture and rape in custody and can be viewed at www.zwnews.com in the Exclusives section at the bottom of the home page. There is little to add.

The players are being told that they can refuse to tour in their conscience so decides but the pressure to tour is huge. They have, again , been let down by a weak English Cricket Board and a conflicted ICC.

Thailand's airport greed

7 September 2004

One of the most worrying aspects of living and working in Thailand is seeing how unregulated short term greed drives away the country's longer term growth prospects.

Increases in landing fees at Bangkok are a great example of short term profiteering. It cost airlines 75 per cent less overall to fly to Singapore than to Bangkok, IATA (the International AIrline Transport Association) said. Landing a Boeing 737 in Bangkok currently costs US$549, compared with US$313 in Singapore.

After the Bangkok airport's Oct 1 hike, it will be US$603. From Oct 1, the government intends to raise by 20 per cent the fee that international airlines must pay every time one of their planes lands at Bangkok.

Another 15 per cent hike is planned for next year, in what the IATA fears is to prepare the industry for another fee increase when Suvarnabhumi opens for business.

Meanwhile the Association has publicly said what many people in Bangkok have long known, that Bangkok's delayed US$3.7 billion (S$6.3 billion) new airport has little chance of opening in September next year as scheduled. IATA said the opening of the Suvarnabhumi airport, designed to handle up to 45 million passengers a year, was likely to be delayed for 12 to 18 months.

The association also claims that 13 airlines had stopped flights out of Bangkok during the past four years because of costs it said were significantly higher than those of key airport competitors in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

Because of the high costs of doing business in Bangkok, British Airways has moved its hub operations to Singapore. Italy's Alitalia also suspended operations, as did South African Airways.

Thai had a dream

7 September 2004

In another bold bid to distract the nation form more pressing issues The Ministry of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) announced at the weekend that it was launching round-table discussions aimed at developing the nation's space operations, with the eventual aim of sending Thailand's first astronaut up into space within the next ten years. Do I hear the ghost of JFK?

Mr. Kraisorn Pornsutee, Deputy Permanent Secretary for ICT, said that the ministry's 10-year plan would focus on the development of both technology and personnel.

The ministry, which hopes to see Thai astronauts participating in international space missions, will also propose the establishment of the National Space Operations Development Committee, to be chaired by the country's prime minister.

Members of the Committee would be drawn from a variety of bodies, including the Ministries of ICT, Defence, Agriculture and Cooperatives, Science and Technology, and Foreign Affairs.
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The Committee's work would include the amendment of legislation to facilitate Thai space operations at home and abroad.

This sounds like another fine way to create a lifetime of paper work for civil servants without having a commitment to deliver anything. A true space oddity!

Saying sorry for a bad whiff

7 September 2004

In this week's The Economist the magazine apologises and agrees to pay Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew damages for defamatory statements made in its article, "Temasek, first Singapore, next the World."

Lee junior and Lee senior are expected to receive $210,000 and $180,000 respectively. All $390,000 will be donated to charity.

The apology — which appears online at economist.com and in this week's print edition — said that the article published in the Aug 14 — 20 edition had contained allegations that were "false and completely without foundation".

"We unreservedly apologise to PM Lee and MM Lee for the distress and embarrassment caused to them by these allegations. We undertake not to make further allegations to the same or similar effect," it read.

According to the lawyers, the offensive parts were in the first and last paragraphs of the article. It had noted that Temasek Holdings executive director Ho Ching was the wife of Singapore's Prime Minister, himself the son of the city's founding father; alluding, in conclusion, to "a whiff of nepotism".

In its apology, The Economist recognised that the article "meant or was understood to mean" that, firstly, PM Lee "had appointed, or was instrumental in appointing, his wife … to Temasek Holdings Ltd not on merit, but for corrupt nepotist motives for the advancement of the Lee family's interests" — and, secondly, that MM Lee had "supported or condoned Ms Ho's appointment for like motives".

Economist editor Bill Emmott told AP the incident "won't affect any of our operations at all, it's entirely a self-contained issue that's been dealt with". This is of course nonsense. He will, like all media outlets in Singapore, practise more rigorous self censorship. Some subjects in Singapore are simply out of bounds.

One commentator describer Singapore as a "family-run, experimental sheep-breeding laboratory." I could not possibly make the same commentary. It is curious to note that from Hong Kong to Thailand there are many leaders who would like nothing more than to emulate the Singapore experience!

Malaysia gets it right

4 September 2004

It took a while; too long; and it should never have happened; but on Thursday last week the Anwar Ibrahim, once the liberal star of Malaysian politics, was released from jail when the the appeal court over turned his bizarre sodomy conviction citing significant deficiencies in the prosecution evidence.

His release comes as a surprise, albeit a welcome one. The Malaysian courts have long been viewed as puppets of their political masters. The Anwar trial embarrassed many Malaysians, and scared away much investment. But it was widely assumed that he would be left to wither in jail.

What does it mean for the future of Malaysian politics? That is unclear. Ibrahim cannot re-enter parliament until 2008, five years after the end of his first jail term on corruption charges.

 For the moment Anwar needs medical treatment. After that we should not expect him to sit passively on the sidelines. He will be a voice and potentially a leader for future political reform.

Bigger, better, brighter, brasher, bolder, Beijing

6 September 2004

I never really doubted that this century will be the Chinese century. But a week in Beijing confirmed that the country is moving very very fast to a position where it will dominate all aspects of our lives.

It is the world's major resource consumer; it is the world's largest exporter; it is the world's fastest growing economy; it is the world's next sporting superpower; It already dominates manufacturing from technology to clothing. But instead of following, China will soon be leading. To date China has produced to instructions. Now China has started to invent, design and build to its own wishes.

It used to be that Shanghai was the fashionable place to go in China. But Beijing has been catching up quickly over the last two years. It is not just the wide streets, smart highways, remarkable new office complexes, bright new malls and hotels. It is new bars, clubs and restaurants. It is the fact that Beijing is the political epicentre of China; it is the new craze for golf; it is the increasing world awareness of its people as they start to travel overseas in ever greater numbers; it is the focussed approach to business; it is a city that seems to be almost buried in cash; it is a new centre for sports and music events; it is the new and controversial opera house; it is a people that increasingly debate controversy and news; it is a people that are learning English to help them succeed internationally; it is a cosmopolitan city that draws people from across China and increasingly from around the world; it is a city that will revel in the 2008 Olympics.

When I was last in Beijng two years ago the city was just opening the fourth ring road; now there are five. The new highways have gleaming new office towers alongside with power boardrooms and action minded leadership.

The bars are now as fashionable as anywhere in the world; Cloud 9 and Bar Blu are two of the current favourites; great jazz in the former and a wonderful room top deck at the latter.

Pick up a copy of "that's beijing" the city's comprehensive English language listings magazine. Find some friends and go and explore.

AUGUST 2004

Kiss and tell

31 August 2004

Imagine, and it is quite frightening to do so, a debating panel that includes Monica Lewinsky, the cigar afficiando, Rebecca Loos, football fan, and Max Clifford, money grabbing parasite. They were together on stage in a debate on kiss and tell reporting hosted by the Edinburgh Television Festival.

Ms Lewinski was paid gbp 400,000 by Channel 4 for an exclusive interview; she famously used to give Bill Clinton blow-jobs in the Oval (oral) office. Ms Loos, who remember is only alleged to have had sex with Mr. David Beckham, was apparently paid gbp 800,000 for her story.

Mr. Clifford who gets a large percentage for arranging kiss and tell stories for his clients,  asked Ms Lewinsky "Did the money help you get off your knees and move on?"

Ms Lewinsky handbag designer.

Ms Loos is still drumming up publicity and hoping to become a television personality.

Over 330,000 misguided votes

31 August 2004

One of the biggest questions to emerge from the Bangkok governor election was how could 330,000 people vote for Chuwit. The man has basically got rich through immorality and he survived by bribing authorities.

He entered politics because his interests were threatened. He is alleged to have masterminded the illegal and wilful demolition of the Sukhumvit Soi 10. When he was charged he countered with revelations about bribes paid to senior policemen to protect his massage parlours.

His clash with the police seems to have given him some form of heroic badge; he is open about his past; he is an effective self publicist. But these are hardly redeeming features. He is another tycoon turned politician in order to protect his own interests. 

Is he truly reformed? Is he really going to bring a new credibility to Thai politics. He says he will fight the General Election with his new First Thai Nation party next spring. That may be a truer test of his intent.

In the meantime he has announced that the Sukhumvit Soi 10 site will be developed as a community centre, library and public park rather than the hotel that was originally proposed. Seeing will be believing.

Is this Howard's end?

30 Augustl 2004

The Australian prime minister, John Howard, yesterday called a general election for October  9.

At the heart of the campaign will be Australia's support of the US led war in Iraq, an issue that has already brought down the Spanish Prime Minister, Jose Maria Aznar and which may yet bring down Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair.

Mr. Howard's main advantage may be the opposition leader. Mr. Latham is a bruiser. It may be that the Australian electorate  like him as a check to Howard's Tories but may think he is unelectable as a leader. On the other hand Australia has already had three terms of John Howard; a fourth may be one too many.

It is likely to be a bruising battle; Mr. Latham will enjoy it that way. Sadly it is also likely to be a negative campaign with accusations of lies and deceit. Most Australians are probably more forward looking and would rather the campaign focused on education, healthcare, security, interest rates and taxes.

The polls have the Labour party leading. But they also led four years ago at the start of the campaign.

The good news is that it only last six weeks. The US could learn a lot from the Australian electoral system.

A new version of the Nigerian scam

27 August 2004

This is a new spin on the Nigerian scam letters that regularly get circulated to companies and individuals offering large rewards for use of your notepaper, logo and bank accounts.

The following arrived in my email today from chinedubb@netscape.net. The spelling and the capital lettering are his. Do not reply to such letters; however sympathetic you may feel (not) or however greedy you may be (for greedy read 'really really stupid').

Singapore's political and economic expediency

26 August 2004

In 1965 the Chinese separatists in the city of Singapore led by Lee Kuan Yew were allowed to secede from Malaysia without issue. Singapore had previously been a part of the sultanate of Johore. It was now an independent sovereign state.

Meanwhile for fifty years (1895-1945) Taiwan was under Japanese rule; a rule which, in fairness, gave Taiwan an infrastructure and education levels that leap-frogged the economic clout of a small island over its mainland neighbour. It also explains in part the lack of connection with the mainland and Taiwan's stronger relations with Japan.

There are many Taiwanese that believe in independence just as many Singaporeans did in 1965. Yet last weekend in his National Day address the Singaporean Prime Minister (Lee Hsien Loong) said that Singapore would not recognise a claim for Taiwanese independence.

His comments won immediate endorsement from Chinese authorities. "We have noticed that Lee Hsien Loong has reaffirmed Singapore's adherence to the one-China policy and its resolute opposition to 'Taiwan Independence,'" said Kong Quan, spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry here Wednesday.

"This stance is in conformity with Singapore's interest and the consensus of the international community, and is conducive to regional peace and stability," Kong said.

Lee had visited Taiwan in July; a visit he described as private but which earned a very frosty reprimand from China. In response he said that "I regret that my visit to Taiwan has caused this severe reaction from China, which affected relations." 

Singapore established diplomatic relations with China in 1990, and like other states in South-East Asia has in recent years courted Beijing as its economic and military muscle has grown. But Singapore also has longstanding, if unofficial, ties with Taiwan. The two countries have strong trade and investment links, and land-scarce Singapore also has an agreement to train some of its armed forces in Taiwan. Prime Minister Lee has decided which side of the Taiwan Straits he is supporting but in doing so he betrays all those who believe in independence and self determination.

There are many Malaysians who regret the separation of Singapore. There are many who think this should be reversed. Mr. Lee could do well to remember the history of his small and privileged city state.  

Without appreciating the irony while his son was busy putting political and economic expediency before human rights his father and Singapore's elder statesman was arguing that Hong Kong's days as a leading centre for international commerce are numbered.

In comments made at a meeting in Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew reportedly said Hong Kong, unlike Singapore, would be powerless to guide its own destiny. He said Hong Kong would eventually lose its unique trading status and would be overwhelmed by the rest of China.

He also said Hong Kong's residents would also have to compete with mainland Chinese for jobs and contracts its own people would otherwise have won automatically.

Isn't that exactly what would happen to Taiwan under the one China policy that his son has just affirmed.

Six and out

26 August 2004

Candidate number six has been hit for six by Bangkok's feeble minded Election Commission.

Leena Jungjunya would not have won the governor election. She would have received a few votes form family and friends. But she has been disqualifed by the Election Commission for breaching Article 57 of the Electoral Law.

Article 57 forbids candidates from soliciting votes by providing entertainment.

What happened: Ms Jungjunya turned up at Siam Square riding on a truck with members of a dance troupe; girls; transvestites; a normal Bangkok crowd ! They did a little dance routine and sand along to her campaign song. The EC have determined that this was a form of favour given to the public in the hopes of getting their votes.

Now surely to be a favour such a performance would have to have economic value; a concert or a public movie; something that you would otherwise pay to attend.

No one would pay to watch Ms Jungjunya and her troupe. Fabulously in her defence she argued that the girls were not dancing; that is was the truck that was wobbling from side to side.

In a campaign with more than its share of dubious characters Ms Jungjunya was harmless fun. The EC may have wnated to prove that they did have some influence but they picked the weakest and easiest target. They will not dare to challenge the big candidates and their respective backers.

Pathetic.

The questionable legacy of Deng

26 August 2004

China celebrates this week the 100th anniversary of the birth of Deng Xiaoping who died 7 years ago. He is widely exalted in China for embracing modernisation and prosperity but judgment should be tempered.

After Mao's death in 1976 Deng survived a power struggle with Mao's widow and the Gang of Four to become paramount leader in 1978. He was a moderniser. He said that "too get rich is glorious." With this theme however comes greed, corruption and the abuse of power.

No honest evaluation of his place in history can ignore his role in the Tiananmen Square massacres.

But he was also the first Chinese supreme leader to visit the United States. He also visited Japan twice restoring relations that were embittered after the second world war. He set out the blueprints for the return of Hong Kong to the mainland and is the author of the "one country, two systems" formula that governs relations between Hong Kong and the mainland.

The trouble with Deng's economic miracle is that he has created two China's: the money-worshiping China, and the other, left-behind China, with widespread rural poverty.

Meanwhile China' leaders remain antagonistic to the slightest democratic movement and wary of the influence of Hong Kong. In the late 1980s and early 1990s communism was collapsing around the world. It was saved in China by the army, a propaganda campaign and the rapid forgiveness of western nations who wanted a part of China's economic miracle and access to that massive market.

It was Deng who revised the nation's assessment of Mao to be 70% good and 30% bad. In time there may be a similar re-assessment of Deng's leadership.
 

Was it Peng or was it Deng?

22 August 2004

The man long dubbed as the Butcher of Beijing for his role in the Tiananmen Square massacre is trying to move the blame to a dead leader. For fifteen years it has been assumed that it was Li Peng, then the Chinese Premier,  who declared martial law and ordered in the tanks to clear the square in Jine 1989.

Now he says he was simply carrying out the wishes of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping.

Peng made his comments in the unlikely named Chinese magazine "Seeking Truth" where he talked of the serious political disturbances that took place that year. It was the leaked Tiananmen Papers that revealed that Li formally moved at a meeting on 2 June 1989 that the square be cleared.

It is the 100th anniversary of the birth of Deng who died in 1987. I am not holding my breath but how wonderful if would be if China is sufficiently confident about its place in the word that it could now investigate and admit the truth of that night and make restitution to the families who continue to grieve.

Making Vietnam an election issue

21 August 2004

The US election campaign is turning nasty and we can expect some good old fashioned mud slinging over the next 3 months.

The Democrats are very upset about a series of TV ads sponsored by the Republicans that question Kerry's Vietnam war record. Indeed Kerry has had to produce a series of quickly produced advertisements to counter what are clearly damaging claims.

But is is Kerry and his advisors that have made his war experience the centre piece of his campaign for the White House. Kerry's speeches, TV ads, interview, the entire Democratic convention were all focused on Vietnam. After all he did win 5 medals.

But then, and his campaign does not mention this, Kerry became a war protester leading Vietnam Veterans Against the War. Kerry wants to be seen as a strong president in a time of war. His Senate record is much more of a pacifist.

But if Kerry makes his war record the central theme of his campaign then he has to expect it to come under scrutiny.

Try this recent exchange: Vice President Dick Cheney zinged Kerry recently for advocating a "more sensitive war on terror." At a rally in Flint, Michigan, Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, accused Cheney of distorting Kerry's words. Then he added this: "He's talking about a man who still carries shrapnel in his body. He's talking about a man who spilled his blood for the United States of America." Democratic senator Tom Harkin went further, calling Cheney a "coward" for not having joined the military or served in Vietnam.

Kennedy never sold himself based on his war record or the shrapnel in his body. He never needed to.

Worse still Vietnam was over 30 years ago. Kerry is selling himself as a hard man based on something that happened a generation ago. The Democrats complain that Kerry was there and that Bush used family influence to avoid the Vietnam conflict.

But Bush has been the Commander in Chief for almost four years now. The voters can judge him based upon his actual performance not based on historical anecdotes. Bush fails on a judgment of his last four years. What happened 30 years ago is frankly not relevant.

John Kerry has asked the US Federal Election Commission to stop the critical advertisements. The Democratic Campaign announced on Friday that it had filed a legal complaint against Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (SBVT) for "violating the law with inaccurate ads that are illegally coordinated with the Bush-Cheney presidential campaign".

It asked the Federal Election Commission to warn the SBVT and the Bush campaign against "further violations" and oblige them to "repay their illegal contributions" as well as imposing a maximum fine.

The Bush campaign denies any connection to SBVT; but secretly must be enjoying the fight. Bush has refused to condemn the advertisements. And to be honest why should he. Kerry made his 30 year ago war record the cornerstone of his campaign. Now he needs to have the confidence to stand by that record not to hide behind legal suits. That's the trouble with having a high flying lawyer as his running mate.

Bangkok's shut down

20 August 2004

As part of a continuing effort to make Bangkok less and less fun the government is enforcing new closing hours for department stores, malls and supermarkets. I hope someone is doing the mathematics that reflect the fuel tax savings offset by a slowing down in the economy and a reduction in inbound travel and spending.

The legislation looks overly hasty and the consequences ill-considered.

Department stores (eg Central) and malls will close at 8pm. Superstores (eg Tesco/Lotus and Carrefour) will close at 10pm. Your local 7-11 can stay open late, for the moment as this is under review.

Petrol stations will close at midnight. And the city will plunge into darkness at 10pm as the outdoor billboards are turned off.

 It is however the lifestyle of many Bangkok residents to relax at a mall or store after college or after work. Many malls have food halls that are regular and busy meeting places. The upmarket food hall at Central Chitlom is one very popular place for evening dinner for shoppers and non shoppers alike.

What will happen? People will be laid off; incomes will be reduced due to shorter working hours; traffic will deteriorate as people have no reason to stay in the malls/stores and will go home earlier.

The Finance Minister, Somkid, is also proposing new taxes on big fuel users as well as new sin taxes for all "unnecessary" goods such as cigarettes, liquor and massage parlours. He said (and you have to love this) "people who cannot bathe themselves must pay heavier taxes".

Why stop there; why tax the smokers and drinkers and massage guests. How about coffee taxes; golf course taxes; movie taxes; restaurant taxes. The government is after all not proposing to tax cigarettes because smoking them will kill you but because they are a soft target.

There has also been a suggestion that TV networks should also close down earlier in the evening.

We are moving ever closer to a national bedtime!

Missing the opportunity for change

18 August 2004

The opportunity for significant change does not come often; changes in control or in leadership are often the best opportunity for new government, management of leaders to make their mark; to start to shape events and behaviour in a particular direction.

A change of political leadership in Singapore was an opportunity to loosen the restrictive ties on local media and reporters. But as the following article reports it looks, sadly, like business as normal.

Singapore may be trying to become the pink capital of Asia; a cultural center and even a late night party town, but the city is driven by big business. And big business flourishes where there is transparency, creativity and entrepreneurism.  That is supported by a modern, talented and fearless media. Sadly Singapore's media is more China Daily than Washington Post.

Singapore must drop 'out-of-bounds' censorship
By Michael Backman

Asia Online - The Melbourne Age
August 13, 2004

What is Singapore? A country or a child-care centre? That is a question Singapore's new Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong, might do well to reflect on.

Singaporeans are sophisticated, well travelled and rich - yet the rules governing their media belong to another era. When it comes to local media, Singaporeans are fed a diet of mush and only the occasional solid.

Why? Singapore is no longer threatened by communism. The battle was won long ago and it's time to loosen up. Media freedom today is a business issue. Media that doesn't simply report but also scrutinises promotes better corporate governance in government and business. The threat of media exposure is a powerful one. But not in Singapore.

Defamation laws and anti-racial vilification laws can deal with libel and racial vilification in the media, but Singapore maintains a system whereby practically every media outlet ultimately is controlled by the Government, is licensed annually and is subject to unwritten and vague "out-of-bounds" (OB) markers - topics that the Government doesn't like canvassed in the media. And in the event these OB topics are discussed in the media, the Government promises retribution.

Last year, I fell foul of these mysterious markers. Information Minister Lee Boon Yang said in a speech that I had "crossed the line" and sought to intervene in Singapore's domestic politics. I'd written a column on media regulation in Singapore, published in the local, Government-linked Today newspaper.

Dr Lee's definition of what constitutes politics seems unique. Not that he's defined it, of course.

Earlier this year, another of my columns was published in the Today newspaper. It was about the high salaries awarded to Singapore Government ministers. I wrote that I felt those high salaries were justified. The piece received the relevant OKs from the information ministry and was published. This made clear something else about Singapore's OB markers. You only actually cross one if what you say differs from the Government line. From that, I deduced that it's not me that's political, it's the OB markers.

In the absence of written guidelines, I suspect that Dr Lee really wanted me, to put it crudely, to kek sai. In Hokkien this means to "hold shit", that is to hold in a bowel movement, a local euphemism for self-censorship.

OB markers that are not spelt out demand that people think within a certain mindset and their nefarious nature means that people err on the side of caution. OB markers contribute to the problem of the lack of creativity and entrepreneurship in Singapore, the very problem that the Government always complains about.

Look at the case of AirAsia, Asia's first budget airline and the most significant development in East Asian aviation in decades. Where did AirAsia originate? Not in Singapore with its excellent, Government-built aviation facilities, but in Malaysia. And so on this, as in many matters now, Singapore is dancing to a Malaysian tune.

OB markers encourage people to think only inside the box, to avoid being courageous and daring - the very attributes that we associate with Lee Kuan Yew, particularly in the early years. Singapore needs more people with the courage and the daring of a young Lee Kuan Yew, not just in politics, but in business and in all aspects of life. But what has happened to those attributes? There is far too much cowering in Singapore, particularly by its journalists.

But the greatest threat posed by the Government's OB markers is to the rule of law.

Singapore has become as rich as it is because it has a strong rule of law. The rule of law requires that laws be written down, that they are precise and that they are gazetted.

But the Singapore Government's OB markers are nebulous. They are not written down. They are not transparent. And they are applied in a discretionary manner. They are absolutely contrary to the rule of law. They offer a sample of the sort of legal chaos that reigns in China and Indonesia.

The views of foreigners particularly are targeted by the Singapore Government for censorship. But surely foreigners have a right to comment on Singapore, in Singapore. They have a right to be part of the national debate. Why? Because foreigners have invested billions of dollars in Singapore. Those billions might not buy the right to vote, but they buy the right to express an opinion. Taking foreigners' money but not allowing them a voice betrays a lack of self-confidence on the part of the Government.

Uncodified OB markers threaten Singapore's reputation as a place that observes the rule of law. And they threaten its prosperity. The Singapore Government's needless, exquisite sensitivity on this makes the world laugh at Singapore. That is a great shame because in so many other areas the Singapore Government has done so well.

At the very least, if the Singapore Government must have OB markers, it should clearly spell out what they are and enshrine them in law. Better still, it should get rid of them. In a global world built on information and knowledge, countries, and particularly little countries, that demand that thinkers kek sai, will end up with a sai economy.

If Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wants to demonstrate that "generational change" really is under way in Singaporean politics as he claims he does, then one of his first acts ought to be to drag Singaporean media law into the 21st century. But so far, the signs are not good. On Tuesday he reaffirmed the existence of the Information Ministry, when it should be abolished. And the incumbent was reappointed as Information Minister.

Dirty politics or dirty laundry

18 August 2004

Hong Kong's Legislative Assembly elections are on September 12th and the Democrats are expected to enjoy strong support much to the alarm of the mainland authorities.

However, in a massively patriotic gesture the Dongguan authorities have taken it in themselves to reduce the Democratic threat in Hong Kong by arresting candidate Alex Ho in his hotel room last Thursday for allegedly hiring a prostitute. He was reportedly held without access to a lawyer or his family until he signed a confession.

He was also told that if he signed a confession he would be released on Monday. If he did not then he would be prosecuted for rape. He signed; but was not released and was sentenced to six months of labour re-education without trial.

Ho is a sales manager for a clothing company; he made regular business trips to Dongguan.

Dongguan is about 40 miles north west of Hong Kong. Ho's wife was allowed to meet with her husband at the prison facility on Monday and Tuesday of this week. His wife told his colleagues in the Democratic Party that police stormed into his room, forced him into the bathroom and beat him up. She added that when he came out of the bathroom, there was a woman standing in the bedroom and officers were filming the incident.

If he remains in prison on September 12th his name will be removed from the ballot paper under Hong Kong's election laws.

In China, anyone convicted of hiring a prostitute can be jailed for up to two years, but reports say a fine is a more usual penalty.

The truth is out there somewhere; it is not uncommon for Hong Kong men to have second wives and mistresses in China. The world's oldest profession is a massive industry in China despite occasional crack downs by the authorities.

Ho could have been fined and sent quietly back to Hong Kong to face a potentially wrathful spouse. Instead, whatever the truth of the circumstances, this looks like either a heavy handed honey-trap of one of Hong Kong's higher profile democratic candidates or at least a deliberately harsh punishment.

Early nights in Bangkok

17 August 2004

Bangkok's fun city is into a period of 1am closing for all bars and nightclubs. And raids on these clubs continue; last week Bangkok police raided a night club called Q bar at 12.15am to perform urine tests and check passports.

As always the police were accompanied by a large TV and media contingent; presumably tipped off in advance.

According to local press reports more than 50 plainclothes and uniformed policemen, under orders of Deputy Interior minister Pracha Maleenont, closed the American owned bar on Sukhumvit soi 11 for the remainder of the night, stopped customers from leaving and administered urine tests to 373 people. The raid was over by 3am.

Apparently two people were found to have "purple urine" meaning that they had taken drugs but police were performing further retests to see if they had taken illicit or prescription drugs.

Of the 373 people tested, 104 did not have passports with them as required in Thailand, and were taken to a police station where they were fined and released.  

A police sergeant-major was quoted as saying "We do random checks at a different bar every Friday. It's by the orders of the police commander and policy of the government to be strict about drugs. We did the raid last night because the minister requested it... he ordered us to make arrests, and he's in command, so we had to make the arrests."

A few thoughts:

If you want to stay out late, drink, party, dance and generally have a good hassle free time then head for Singapore. Bangkok' bar and club industry is hurting; significant increases in license fees; early closing; police raids and the dampening effects of the rainy season all take their toll.

The police are quite entitled to carry out drug raids. But, and I can tell you this from personal experience, standing in a queue for a couple of hours with a few hundred people waiting for your turn to fill the plastic container is not an ideal way to spend the evening. Meanwhile TV cameras and press photographers are happily snapping your picture.

Bar washrooms are not known for their size or comfort You will be watched over while you piss to ensure that their is no tampering with samples. Taking a piss while being watched by the law is no fun. You really need rubber gloves and wellington boots. Then you have to present you sample to the doctor to test. And however innocent you are there is always the smallest fear that the tylenol that you took earlier will lead to a positive test.

Q Bar is one of Bangkok's more upscale nightclubs. Bed Supperclub is another that has been raided in the past. So the raids are not restricted to the more notorious parts of town such as Nana Plaza.

Taking ID with you at night time is probably mandatory now. At a minimum a copy of your passport and the page with your Thailand visa/entry stamp.

You have been warned and you know what to expect. If the lights come up and the exits are closed expect to be there for a couple of hours; chat to your friends; relax; piss in the container; go home and write about it later !!

This season's footie forecast

14 August 2004

Well, dear reader, it is mid August, 30C, beach holiday season and of course time for the new football year to start. And that means it is time to make predictions:

Premiership Champions: Arsenal. Now that Vierra is staying they look very strong. They may get distracted by Europe but they have genuine depth and talent in their squad.

Second: Chelsea. - Not experienced enough to win anything yet. The new manager will make fewer changes than Ranieri and the team will get some big results. But as always with Chelsea that will throw away some silly points against the unglamorous teams of the division.

Third: Manchester United - too many injuries. Ronaldo is talented but too hot headed. Alan Smith was a good buy.

No one else is there; the battle will again be for fourth place. Maybe Middlesborough or Newcastle. But no one else has the quality or depth for a top three finish. Oops - no mention of Liverpool. Baros has lots of confidence after the European championships but the loss of Michael Owen makes Liverpool look even less like Liverpool. Will Gerrard stay? I doubt it.

Relegated: Crystal Palace, Portsmouth and West Brom. I think Norwich will be OK.

Managerial Changes: Bobby Robson will retire, I said this last year as well. Souness will be replaced at Blackburn. Terry Venables will turn up somewhere.

A few extras:

Arsenal want European success. Expect that to be a real focus for Wenger and at least a semi final.

By season end John Dykes on Star TV will admit that Gerry Armstrong is both ex Tottenham AND Watford!!

Mourinho's self aggrandisement will get irritating. But the press conferences at Chelsea will be fun for a while at least.

West Ham should bounce back to the Premiership. Watford may be good for a play off spot this year...oops we lost at home to Burnley - I take that back. Another long season !!

Enjoy the game.

Searching for the Olympic spirit

10 August 2004

Growing up I remember the mounting excitement as the Olympics came around every four years. I could recite where the games were held and I watched them with all the enthusiasm of a David Coleman commentary; who can forget "Juantorema opens wide his legs and shows his class?" The joys of live broadcasting!

This year though I have been struggling to summon up any interest. Maybe because the TV coverage in Bangkok will be in Thai and hard for me to watch; maybe because the Games seem dominated by doping scandals and security fears; maybe because the Olympics have lost so much of their magic.

The Olympics used to be the pinnacle of amateur sporting achievement. Now we have millionaire basketball and tennis places and professional athletes all competing. Now so many existing records are in doubt due to allegations of drug use. The 17 day long Games are a massive commercial event that was irrevocably tarnished by the crass commercialism of the Atlanta Games.

But maybe the Greeks are about to salvage the reputation of the Games. This small and historic nation failed to be awarded the Games in 1996 and 2000. Eight years ago Athens had no facilities and antiquated infrastructure, The Games have rejuvenated the city and the nation. People said they would be ready in time. It is a huge, huge project. 11,000 athletes, 5,500 officials and hangers on, the world's media, massed ranks of tourists all descending on the city.

There will be many questions over the cost - is this coming together of nations really worth the cost. The security cost in this post 9/11 world is five times the cost of Sydney 2000. But then if the Games are not held then the bad guys are starting to win the war. The basic concepts of the Olympic spirit and of competition remain values that should be dear in a free world.

In Greece they have a word - kefi, it is pronounced "keh-fee." It means an irrepressible joy, a transcendental ebullience, an utterly profound sense of satisfaction in the moment: kefi is that state of heart, if not of mind, that moves one to smash plates in sheer happiness. It is a spirit of mind and soul understood only by the Greeks and which has been exported by the Greek diaspora all over the new world.

Searching for inspiration

6 August 2004

It is rare that I am lost for words but I am genuinely short on inspiration right now and am struggling to find worthwhile subjects to write about or even to get interested in.

I have given up writing about Iraq. The place is simply a mess; it is too depressing; the allied forces should never have been there; now they are there we should be getting them home as quickly and safely as possible.

I have given up writing about deceitful politicians. Blair will survive because he is the best leader that the Labour party has; but he has lost an irreparable amount of domestic and international respect and he will not recover from that. His is a tarnished leadership and that means that he cannot lead elsewhere; which makes the Sudan refugee crisis all the more depressing because a stronger Blair would have taken action.

I have given up on England's football management. We all know what FA stands for and their executives certainly lived up to the title. What a shambles. And now the alarm bells will be truly ringing as Ms. Alam will tell all to the Sunday tabloids. It is all too depressing.

I have given up getting exercised over the links between business and politics in Thailand; over the lack of transparency and over action that ignores human rights and the Thai Constitution. Thailand is the way it is because the people elected a populist Prime Minister. It is up to the people to make change happen when and if they believe it is necessary.

I have given up writing about Tung Che-hwa and the pro democracy movement in Hong Kong. One country and two systems did not even survive for ten years post handover.

The English football season starts tomorrow and I cant even get excited about that.

There is nothing personal to write about in my blog - I worked; I went home and I slept do not exactly make for exciting reading !

The airline industry in Asia is relatively quiet; expect to see new routes from Bangkok later in the year.

I could write about my 81 at Muang Kaew last week; but that's only worth telling you about if I can start to do it consistently.

So forgive me for writing so little at the moment; and forgive me for writing so little that is interesting !

Split democrats open way for Pavena

4 August 2004

The entry of former Bangkok governor Bhichit Rattakul into this year's August 29 election for Bangkok governor will hurt Democrat Party candidate Apirak Kosayodhin's chances.

Apirak was previously seen as one of the two front runners in the campaign alongside "independent" Pavena Hongsakul.

The governing Thai Rak Thai party have given their support to Pavena who is also likely to pick up most of the female vote.

Chalerm Yoobamrung and massage-parlour tycoon Chuwit Kamolvisit are also likely to get good support but both have questionable backgrounds and voters may decide not to trust them.

Bitter rivals to contest the Asian cup final

4 August 2004

It will be a night for strong nerves and huge security in Beijing on August 7 when Japan and China face off in the final of the 2004 Asian Football Cup.

Throughout the tournament Japan have been relentlessly booed in China, while Japanese fans have been the target of abuse and pelted with plastic bottles. There is lingering resentment among many in China over Japan's military invasion and brutal occupation of parts of the country from 1937 to 1945.

The Chinese crowd behaviour has been intimidating and sometimes ugly and bodes ill for the 2008 Olympics. On the other hand the Japanese team and supporters are victim to their nation's politicians and to a glaring inability to say sorry.

The tournament has been spoiled by amateur theatricals. There is nothing worse that watching a player fall like a tree and roll around in feigned agony simply to get another player sent off. Both Bahraini and Chinese teams were guilty of that in the semi finals with Japan and Iran both reduced to 10 men. Let's hope for better in the final. It is a game that will need a strong referee and great discipline from both sides. 

Bangkok's unsung Taxi drivers

1 August 2004

Bangkok's taxi drivers have historically been given a bad rap for not putting on meters and for driving scruffy old taxis.

But the truth is now rather different. Taxis are metered by law. One or two will want to try and set a fare; but this is rare. There are fleets of new locally made Toyotas. Now the newer cars are almost all in town. The old jalopies are at the airport. Not the ideal first site when you arrive in the city.

The taxis are invariably clean; the drivers are mostly courteous and generally are fairly aware of how to get around town; not always easy.

JULY 2004

The President America really wants

July 28 2004

The President that America, and quite probably the rest of the world, wants was the closing night speaker on the first night of the Democratic Convention. Bill Clinton.

If it was Clinton versus GW Bush in November Clinton would be a shoe-in. There are many many reasons why you should not vote for GW Bush and his cronies. Are there enough reasons to vote for John Kerry.

As Clinton took to the stage on Monday one writers commented "The place goes nuts as Bill strides forward. You have to see him standing where lesser mortals have stood—in this case at the podium 100 feet from me—to appreciate what an imposing figure he cuts. The frost that has covered his hair since he left office accentuates the effect. In the arena, far more so than on the TV screen, he looks so majestic you almost can't believe the trashy, pointless, inconsequential way in which he disgraced his office."

To his credit Clinton sold Kerry. His recurring theme was that Kerry always answered his nation's call from Vietnam to his presidential campaign by declaring "send me." Kerry got all the support that he needed from Clinton in a speech that was as always upbeat, intelligent and charismatic.

The Clintons, Gore and Carter were all set up for the opening day of the convention. Then they all go home. And on Thursday John Kerry will take to the stage for the most important speech of his career.

So far the Convention has portrayed Kerry as loyal, honest, environmentally friendly and patriotic. He served in Vietnam. But thats a generation ago. Time to move on. And he picked John Edwards as his running mate.

Is that enough to make him President?

Jimmy Carter said that if Bush wins reelection, "the manipulation of truth will define America's role in the world," and he said that "in the world at large we cannot lead if our leaders mislead."

Carter even made what to my ear sounds like a reference to the Abu Ghraib scandal, saying that "we cannot be true to ourselves if we mistreat others."

We don't want Bush; I and many others are left wishing that we could have Bill back again !

The land of the rising son....

July 26 2004

There is a place in Singapore where they appoint the rising son...and Lee Hsien Loong becomes Prime Minister on 12 August 2004; only Singapore's third PM; the first was his father; and the second was widely seen as a stop gap until the son rose.

Strangely HL Lee (also known as BG Lee) says that he is ready to implement significant economic and social reforms. But that is unlikely; like his father he is measured and conservative. And for investors, foreign companies and for many Singaporeans, one of the city state's attractions is its stability.

There is some concern that Lee may actually be too much like his father; he is not known for his charm. The new leader certainly cements the family's authority over Singapore. Mr Lee senior, now 80 years old, still sits in the cabinet (as senior minister, rather than prime minister), and supervises the Government Investment Corporation (GIC), which manages Singapore's foreign reserves. Meanwhile, Mr Lee junior's wife, Ho Ching, runs Temasek, the government holding company that owns stakes in Singapore's biggest firms, while his brother, Lee Hsien Yang, runs Singapore Telecommunications, the biggest local firm of all.

Admirers of Singapore will say that the concentration of power stems simply from its members' remarkable talent, not their connections.

Lee has never had any rivals. The ruling People's Action Party (PAP) controls all but two seats in parliament and selected him unanimously as prime minister, as did the party's executive committee and the cabinet.

So what is changing in Singapore? How dramatic are the changes? There has been a relaxation of restrictions on busking and bungee jumping. Not exactly revolutionary.

But why change anything. Singapore changed from third world to first in a generation. The economy is still going strong: in the second quarter, it posted growth of almost 12%, albeit compared with a low base during the same period last year, when the region was hit by an outbreak of the SARS respiratory disease.

Business as normal. Steady as she goes.

And Bangkok's scary choices for mayor....

July 26, 2004

On August 29th some 4 million voters can go to the polls to elect Bangkok's new mayor. 28 candidates have already submitted applications for the position. Among the favorites are a sex tycoon and women's rights activist.

Recent polls have shown that Mr Chuwit Kamolvisit, known as Bangkok's massage parlour king, and Ms Pavena Hongsakul, a former member of Parliament who gained prominence for fighting abuse of women and children, are current favourites.

Mr Chuwit's is well known for his vocal attacks on police corruption - he claims they extracted small fortunes in bribes from his entertainment empire - and disillusionment over mainstream politics. There are also allegations about his involvement in the demolition of the complex at Sukhumvit Soi 8 and 10  last year.

Encouragingly for Chuwit one voter said to the press 'I don't care if Chuwit's a bad man. 'It is not like politics isn't full of bad people already.'

Another candidate is maverick politician Chalerm Yoobamrung, a former policeman once charged with, but not indicted on, gambling charges. More recently he strongly defending his youngest son who was acquitted in the killing of a policeman in a nightclub brawl.

Mr Apirak Kosayodhin, is running for the opposition Democrat Party, which traditionally scores well in city elections. He drew No 1 on the ballot form.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's ruling party,Thai Rak Thai, is determined to secure the mayor's seat and appears to have thrown its weight behind Ms Pavena, who, confusingly, insists she is running as an independent.

To add a little more colour to the race, Ms Leena Jungawat, a perennial contestant who jabs fun at her rivals, appeared with her usual entourage of transvestites in fancy dress and a band of musicians.

If victorious, she promises that citizens will no longer have to queue at city offices, but civil servants will instead go to their homes to serve them.

Expect a mud-slinging campaign; expect many promises; and expect that many votes can be bought !

Sweet FA...

July 25, 2004

I wish to publicly make it known that I have at no time had any relationship in any form with any member of England's football management.

On current evidence I may be one of few people that can make this claim.

We know that David Beckham looks on Sven Eriksson as a father figure. But he is clearly more than a chip off the old block !

The latest news from the FA is that England coach Sven-Goran Eriksson did indeed have an affair with a Football Association (FA) secretary. Sven, the Swedish Casanova; the iceman appears an unlikely babe magnet although his gbp5 million a year contract must have some appeal.

His latest conquest, a secretary at the FA (which apparently used to mean Football Association), Faria Alam, also scored with Mark Palios, the FA Chief Executive.

Its no longer Bonk it like Beckham - its Bonk it like the whole of the Football Association ! Mr. Eriksson has embarrassed his employers and it may well be time that after disappointing World and European Championships that he moved on. However a recently signed contract extension (to 2008) would be expensive to terminate.

The world's most unlikely jogger

July 19 2004

My baby brother's allergy to all forms of vertical exercise is nigh on legendary. It is remarkable what a few months in hospital can do to a person....

Tim (yes, he does have a name !) was very sick for some eight months; laid up in hospital; in and out of surgery and close to not making it. Too close.

He is the sunny one of the family; not much has ever phased him; not even eight months in hospital. It was not a set back so much as a rejuvenating experience. He tells him wife and family that it was a good job that he was ill because it has made them all happier, closer and not take each other for granted!

Now he is back at work; fit; strong; and mad enough that he has started running for charity. His first run will be for the Sue Ryder Foundation over 10 kilometres; but this is just a small step compared to running a marathon next year.

You can follow his fund raising efforts here : www.justgiving.com/redshoes

We are a funny old family; scattered over the planet we do not see eachother often. Tim and his family went through more agonies in eight months than most of us want to in our lives. And he is still smiling; maybe less so after a 10k run !!! I am happy to watch from a distance and an armchair. Good luck and well done!

Sue Ryder Care

In the UK Sue Ryder Care provides hospice care and neurological care. Its hospices and care centres offer a range of services including long-term and respite residential care, day care centres and home care. It cares for patients and residents with a wide range of illnesses including cancer, multiple sclerosis and Huntington's disease.

Why Butler is a warning shot

Errors of judgment in the lead-up to war were the responsibility of many

Leader
Sunday July 18, 2004
The Observer

On first reading, the report from Lord Butler's enquiry seemed another Establishment closing of ranks. By today it is becoming clear that it is a more subtle indictment of the processes of British government, the ramifications of which will become clearer in the weeks ahead. Critics of the war will find justification for their opposition. For those who supported the war in Iraq, such as this newspaper, there is much that makes disturbing reading.

The Blair government has been a good government. It would be a tragedy if it were to fall on questions of style over substance. Yes, the Butler report is disturbing reading. It does not exonerate either Blair or those around him. But neither does it make the case for the Prime Minister's resignation. Number 10 has been sent a warning shot. It should heed it.

Weapons of mass deception; the case against Tony Blair

17 July 2004

Labour MP Geraldine Smith details the case against Tony Blair in the article below following the issue of Lord Butler's report on the intelligence, or lack of it, that led Britain to support the war in Iraq.

She is right; and she was not the only one that was misled. Read some of my comments on Iraq from last year.

What Ms. Smith fails to do is give us any credible alternative to Blair as a leader and a moderate and electable voice for the labour party. I just cannot see Gordon Brown as a man of the people.

No sense from Arroyo

16 July 2004

South East Asian nations are always cautious when it comes to open criticism of each other. Which makes "The Nation's" strong editorial condemning the Philippine pull out of Iraq even more damning.

And The Nation is correct. Newly re-elected Gloria Arroyo has lost far more than she has gained in giving in so readily to terrorist demands from Iraq. Worse still she has jeopardised the safety of many many migrant workers in that country and across the Middle East.

Manila enjoyed huge US financial and military support; it has its own significant internal terror problems. And now it has said that it will give in to their demands to save one person at the risk on many.

Withdrawal sends the wrong signal

The Nation; Bangkok, 15 July 2004

In what is being referred to in diplomatic circles as the “Southeast Asian approach” to solving a dilemma, the Philippines announced yesterday that it had started pulling its 51-man contingent out of Iraq after insurgents threatened to kill Angelo de la Cruz, a Filipino truck driver they had taken hostage. There is nothing peculiarly regional about Manila’s surrender. It is simply bad policy and poor leadership. Not only has President Gloria Arroyo hurt her country’s international standing by caving in to the threats, she has also put millions of Filipinos, Thais and other foreigners working in the Middle East at risk from terrorists who now know it may well be worth their while to try to grab more hostages to achieve their political ends.

Standing firm in the face of demands from hostage-takers – especially abductors as vile and ruthless as those operating in Iraq – is never easy it. De la Cruz’s case had attracted huge sympathy in the Philippines, where the country’s foreign workers are lionised for the money they send home. De la Cruz, like an estimated 3,000 of his countrymen, was in Iraq trying to earn money for his family of eight. Arroyo’s government said it hoped its actions “would touch the heart” of de la Cruz’s kidnappers.

Manila of all places should know better. The country has been beset by its own kidnapping problems for almost two decades. In the cities, criminal gangs have made preying on ethnic Chinese businessmen a lucrative industry while in the jungles militant Muslim groups such as Abu Sayyaf have funded their insurgency by seizing missionaries, foreigners and Christian villagers. And Manila’s inconsistent approach of sometimes negotiating, sometimes paying ransoms and sometimes using force has only ever encouraged more kidnappings.

Much to the Philippines’ ignominy, it is the first country to yield to abductors’ demands in Iraq. The governments of Bulgaria, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Turkey and the US all refused to negotiate and with each video-taped killing the revulsion and condemnation of the militants’ grisly tactics only further eroded their claims to be acting with a legitimate political goal.

The fact that the kidnappers – a group calling itself the Islamic Army in Iraq – had seized a Filipino only underscored their desperation. The “humanitarian contribution” Manila made to the multinational force was small – barely four dozen troops – and the men were due to be withdrawn in a month anyway. Forcing the Filipinos out 30 days early achieves nothing in strategic sense.

In cynical domestic political terms, it makes no sense either. Arroyo was re-elected to a second six-year term last month. She had nothing to fear by making the tough decision. In terms of saving lives, one must question why such top-level attention isn’t paid to the country’s ferry services or the state of its roads, which kill far more Filipinos every year. Manila’s decision has made the world a more dangerous place.

Sense from the US Senate

15 July 2004

The US Senate had the good sense to throw out a proposed Constitutional Amendment supported by President GW Bush that would have banned same sex marriages in the US.

The US Constitution has only been amended 17 times in history; almost always to extend not to restrict individual freedoms.

Good sense prevailed here. The Republicans will make this issue a part of their re-election campaign. They will argue that the "American family" is under threat. Sorry but with divorce rates at the levels they are at the American family is already under threat; and anything that allows people who love each other to enjoy the rights and opportunities of marriage should be good news for society.

A confused agenda at the International Aids Conference

15 July 2004

This week Bangkok has played host to the XVth International Aids Conference. With its infamous sex industry Bangkok is an appropriate city to host a conference that has the support of the UN and many of the world's global leaders.

The fundamental need for such a conference is to arrive at an agreed agenda that will have a significant impact on preventing AIDS. As simple as that.

This conference was of such import that it drew Nelson Mandela to Bangkok for what may well be his last major public conference; he drew attention to the need to address tuberculosis and its link to HIV sufferers.

But the meeting appears to have been hijacked by voices that are "anti-US whatever the issue." The debate is less over what needs to be done to prevent AIDS; but about the role of the US in fighting this killer epidemic.

The US has hardly helped the debate with a newly launched programme supporting sexual abstinence as a pillar of its policy. This is a bit rich from a country that has the world's largest pornography industry, that brought you the "Joy of Sex" and that has television shows that reflect an open attitude to sexuality throughout society.

Abstinence is not the answer; that just leaves people ill prepared when they do discover sex. The answers lie in education, condom use, needle exchange programs, shared medical knowledge, and the provision of affordable drugs through internationally supported programs.

Time Asia reports on LCCs in Asia

14 July 2004

Time magazine reports this week on the rise, opportunity and issues for low cost airlines in Asia.

There are some interesting comments in the article, which is also something of a tribute to poster-bit Tony Frenandes, the CEO of Air Asia.

Air Asia expects to fly 4 million passengers this year, twice as many as in 2003.

Air Asia's 18 planes are expected to increase by another 80 planes over the next five years. That must have Boeing and Airbus camped outside his office.

In Indonesia only 1% of the population has been on an airplane; 6% of Malaysians. As incomes rise; air fares fall and routes become more accessible to low cost start ups in Asia air travel will continue to increase by over 5% a year up to 8% in China.

All that said and done, Fernandes does not expect budget airlines to create the same upheaval for the big carriers in Asia as they have in the USA and Europe. The LCCs only have 2% of the existing capacity in the region.  There is also a much tighter web of regulation that protects the big carriers. There are also fewer secondary airports. Above all else the big Asian carriers, Thai, Cathay and Singapore Airlines for example, all have costs much lower than comparable US and European carriers so the gap between the big guys and the LCCs in Asia is not so wide. Therefore the big carriers can sell some tickets at prices that compete well with the LCCs.

The biggest threat to LCCs in Asia may not be existing big airlines but new start up LCCs. Tiger and Jetstar Asia are due to start up this year from Singapore and NokAir is about to debut in Thailand.

LCC Ticket Pricing

14 July 2004

There was an article in Thailand's "The Nation" newspaper last week comparing domestic airfares offered by NokAir, Air Asia and One-Two-Go. The article stated that Air Asia had nine levels of fare for each flight; NokAir has five, and that both airlines will sell only a few tickets at the lowest price and will sell those to people who book early for their off-peak and weekday flights.

So The Nation rationalised that the fairest pricing was offered by One-Two-Go who price every ticket at the same price irrespective of whether you book the same day or three months in advance.

The Nation's misplace egalitarianism really misses the point of the budget airlines. They are not looking at filling their planes with last minute travelers. If you need to fly today or tomorrow then you have to expect to pay a premium for that flexibility. Even the big carriers practice yield management and charge a premium for the flexibility of last minute travel.

Naughty NokAir shows its Spirit

12 July 2004

NokAir, the airline whose recruitment advertisements sort to hire "living" flight attendants really deserves the bird for this one.

NokAir's business class is called Nok Plus. The website link to Nok Plus is here: http://www.nokair.com/welcome.aspx?pg=spiritplus

But why does it refer to Spirit Plus? Spirit is a Detroit based LCC with business class seats called Spirit Plus. The link to Spirit Plus is here: http://www.spiritair.com/welcome.aspx?pg=spiritplus

Don't they look rather similar; identical in fact. I hope they run their airline a little more professionally than their web site!

The 2004 US Election

9 July 2004

Why does it go on so long and why are the candidates so average? On December 1 2002 Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts announced that he would seek the Democratic nomination for president. The election itself is not until November 2004.

In Canada they recently finished an election that ran for six weeks from start to finish. In other countries the leader of the opposition is known and visible. Not in the US. One of the weaknesses of the US style of government is that there is no one who you can turn to who is the official leader and voice of the opposition. In Australia, Canada, Britain, Thailand the opposition has a voice; often a potent voice.

In the US the opposition voice is usually the senate member who most wants to get his or her face onto TV. It is only in the election campaign that there is a real voice for an alternative government.

We now have an opposition in the US that has a real and potent voice. A combination of Kerry and Edwards looks potent and covers the North and South of the US and both privileged and blue collar America.

This is not where the Bush White House thought they would be four months from election day. They were confident that a sitting war president would sail to re-election voted in by a still nervous America.

But: it may be that the US is changing; while most Americans probably are not that concerned with the fabricated evidence that took them to war in Iraq, they are hugely distressed at daily killings of American soldiers and the threat to civilians in Iraq. It is unlikely that anyone in the US feels any safer now that on 12 September 2002, despite the Iraq war and the questionable efforts of the Dept of Homeland Security.

Bush's government said they would make the country safer by taking on Iraq, but it is not. And therein lies a huge opportunity for the Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Over the next four months this site will track what I hope is the unlamented demise of the Bush administration. One strong advocate for change is Michael Moore; the Guardian review of his biting documentary is here.

Hong Kong's political birth

July 2, 2004

Last year the people of Hong Kong were driven to the streets by a collapsed economy, ill considered security legislation (aricle 23), the mismanagement of the SARS outbreak and frustration with Beijing appointed leaders of Hong Kong who had forgotten that they were there for the people of Hong Kong.

So what to expect one year later. The economy has improved; Beijing after threats earlier in the year has recently turned warm and fuzzy inviting previously banned Hong Kong democrats to meet in Beijing and a better prepared government has been promoting alternative entertainment to keep the demonstrators off the streets.

And then there is the weather. An unpleasantly humid day with a temperature over 100F. And the smog at its worst over the city.

Surely no one would want a long hot sweaty crowded march on such a day. They would all stay in air conditioned comfort and do what Hong Kong people do best - eat and shop.

Maybe yesterday Hong Kong found its real political voice. The police say 200,000 people marched. Apple Daily and Bloomberg have reported 530,000. Lets split the difference and say 315,000. That is a phenomenal number.

The BBC quotes from a few of the particpants:

I am out here visiting a friend who lives in Hong Kong, and I can say that I have never seen a more peaceful, well organised and impressive display of people power. Not only were the people sweltering in oppressive heat and humidity, they were also surrounded by literally hundreds, if not thousands of police officers. I found the march to be very powerful. Whether or not it makes a difference remains to be seen. Does the international community have the power or the inclination to stand up to mainland China for the rights of the people of Hong Kong?
Robbie McLaren, Edinburgh, Scotland

It has been a great day. The march have taught me the value of democracy and liberty. I am proud of being one of the participants. It is a meaningful and touching activity. The determination of the Hong Kong people have once again been shown. I hope that our demands will be fulfilled. I wish our little steps will change the history.
Jeffrey , Hong Kong, China

I'm so touched by my fellow citizens. We all showed the good discipline and our pursuit for a full democracy in Hong Kong. I was glad to see all walks of life, elderly and youngster, in the procession. I'm sure our dream will come true soon!
KB Leung, Hong Kong, China

Blissfully, ignoring reality, Zhang Qiyue, the spokeswoman for China's Foreign Ministry, said at a news conference in Beijing that Hong Kong was already democratic. "The residents of Hong Kong enjoy real and unprecedented democracy, which can be witnessed by the international community," she said.

The government-controlled news media in China largely ignored the protest on Thursday, and it was not clear how quickly word of it would spread on the mainland. China had drastically reduced the number of mainland tour groups allowed to visit Hong Kong in the last week. But the internet is a great friend to those who want to find truth.

Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, is always thoughtful when discussing Hong Kong affairs. He did have a genuine love for the city and its people. Speaking in Jakarta yesterday he urged China to give Hong Kong's citizens more say in running their own affairs.

"Hong Kong is a sophisticated, well-educated society, and I think that it would be sensible for the leadership in Beijing to recognise that," he told a press conference.

There was, Mr Patten said, a debate "raging in China about the extent to which politics is going to have to change to accommodate what's happening socially and economically."

"My own view is that if they trusted the people in Hong Kong it would make the results more rather than less successful."

*************************

Great pictures; news extracts and commentary on the march from the blog EastSouthWestNorth; just follow the link.
 

Bangkok's new subway

July 1, 2004

http://www.mrta.co.th/eng/index.htm (Link to the Mass Rapid Transit Authority English language web site)

To be a world class city you need to have a subway system! And on Saturday July 3rd Bangkok's first subway line will open for public use. This is the new underground line; and should not be confused with the overground BTS.                                       

The subway line will be opened by His Majesty the King who with the Royal Family will go to Hua Lamphong at 5:30 PM and ride the subway all the way from Hua Lamphong to Bangsue. The line runs for 21 kms with 18 stations. From Hua Lamphong terminus it runs along Rama IV before turning North up Ratchadaphisek and Asoke before turning back to the West and Chatuchak market.

There are three links to the BTS; at Silom/Saladaeng; at Sukhumvit/Asoke and at Chatuchak/Mo Chit. But the services are run by separate companies so you have to exit one station to access the other and as yet there will be no common fares or stored value cards.

The single line will then be open for public use. The first year target is 250,000 passengers a day. Until August 12, 2004 the fare will be a flat rate of 10 baht. After then the fares are fixed between 12-31 baht with half price for children under 12 and old people over 65.

Revenue from July 3 to August 12 will be donated to His Majesty and Her Majesty for Royal Projects.

Anything that relieves the traffic gridlock and makes it easier to get around the city should be welcomed. In the same way that the BTS has spurred property prices expect the Metro to do the same; perhaps especially along Ratchadaphisek, north of Rama IX.

JUNE 2004

Canada's chastened Liberals

June 29, 2004

Back on June 16th your favourite web site wrote:

"How will this end up; my guess is that many undecided voters are Liberal; they have given Martin's party a good telling off but are not ready to vote them out of office. The Liberals will likely be the largest party in the Parliament. But leading a minority government; assume that the Bloc Quebecois takes 65 (of Quebec's 75 seats); that the NDP takes maybe 23 seats; the Liberals 130 and the Conservatives 90. It will make for an uneasy Parliament; and maybe another early election in say 2006."

So what happened:

I have this great urge to say - told you so !!! The Canadian media really did build up the Conservatives to be more of a threat than they actually were. At heart the people of voter rich Ontario, in particular, are not going to embrace the Conservatives and their pro-Bush leanings.

The Globe and Mail reports that:

"In a stunning turnaround, Paul Martin's Liberals have been handed a substantial minority government in an outcome few had predicted going into tonight's election.

The surprising result was largely decided in seat-rich Ontario, where most voters rejected advances by the Conservatives to gain their support".

It is good to be one of the few !!

This is a good result for Canada; it is a wake up call for Paul Martin; lets hope he has heard the message.

Canada's Election - the safe choice

The Globe and Mail - 23 June 2004

Commentators have wrongly characterized the 2004 general election as dirty, derogatory and demeaning. In fact, it has been one of the most illuminating of recent times. The campaign has reaped a bumper crop of choice for voters. Those Quebeckers steeped in parochialism can opt for their now-permanent party of protest, the Bloc Quebecois. Romantics can throw their lot in with dreamy Jack Layton's New Democrats or, for a change of pace, the blissful future promised by the Greens.

Then there are the two entities with a chance of forming a government: the reformed Conservatives under Stephen Harper and the perennial default choice of Canadian politics, the Liberals, now with Paul Martin at the helm.

For 11 years, the Liberals have governed Canada, and, by and large, they've governed it well. Simply ask yourself a variant of Ronald Reagan's famous question: Are you and your country better off today than you were a decade ago? The answer must be a resounding yes.

A previous generation of governments, Liberal and Tory both, had so abysmally managed our economy that Canada was keeping company with the likes of Belgium and Italy when the Chrétien Liberals came to power in 1993. Today, the Canadian economy is the envy of the industrialized world, providing the foundation for social investment. Did this turnaround occur on the backs of the provinces and other recipients of federal funds? Obviously. Was it justified by the circumstances? Just as obvious.

Nor was finally wrestling the deficit to the ground Mr. Martin's only achievement. Working with the provinces, he also put the Canada Pension Plan on a sound footing. And then, just five years after his shock fiscal therapy, he authored the largest tax cut in Canadian history.

Yet, in other important ways, Mr. Martin and the government he served came up decidedly short. They repeatedly failed to produce a serious effort at health-care reform, preferring to purchase temporary provincial peace rather than tackle the real problems plaguing the system. They lacked the will to confront the running sore of aboriginal policies that never seem to lift aboriginal peoples out of misery. Nor could the party of Lester Pearson muster the intellectual power to put in place a modern foreign policy.

Finally, like most governments long in the tooth, the Liberals grew sloppy, even cavalier, with power and money. And so we were introduced to the concept of friendly dictators, democratic deficits and, ultimately, the sponsorship scandal. The Liberals took ownership of the crisis of public ethics that had propelled them to power in the first place.

That said, the point of the current electoral exercise is not so much to judge the kind of government the Liberals have provided as it is to evaluate the kind they would provide with another mandate.

To put it succinctly, Paul Martin, or whoever is inhabiting his body, has proved a monumental disappointment since becoming Prime Minister six months ago. His pronouncements have displayed all the consistency of Pablum. Intent on winning every vote in the country, he lived in fear of offending someone, somewhere, somehow. On Iraq and Kyoto, he was incomprehensible. On same-sex marriage, he swung both ways. On missile defence co-operation, first he was openly for it, then secretly for it. He had two Supreme Court openings, but boxed himself into a process corner.

He made enemies of the meritorious (witness Stéphane Dion) and promoted the mediocre (come on down, Jean Lapierre). The only difference between his political manipulations and those of his "friendly dictator" predecessor was that the latter didn't leave bloodied fingerprints at the crime scene.

On health care, we have heard much rhetoric. But Mr. Martin's ideas for shortening waiting lists remain fanciful. As a general rule, he has beseeched voters to count on his reputation for solutions rather than proposing any.

But does he deserve to be thrown out?

The country's justified but disproportionate anger over the sponsorship scandal is insufficient cause by itself to impose capital punishment on Mr. Martin's Liberals. The McGuinty budget in Ontario is infuriating but not germane.

The answer to the question of who can best govern Canada requires a close examination not just of the devil you know but of the alternative. Which brings us to Mr. Harper and the Conservatives.

The greatest argument in their favour is the time-for-change imperative. All institutions require periodic cleansing to remove sclerotic thinking and allow for renewal. On issues such as health care, Mr. Harper is better positioned to bring new approaches to old problems.

Over the past year, the young Conservative Leader has proved more adept than generally presumed at building bridges, as demonstrated by his role in merging the Alliance and Tories, and finally creating a viable alternative for Canadians. But merged entities take time to gel. And the Conservatives have not had ample time. As we have seen throughout the campaign, the new party speaks with many contradictory voices, a cacophony of confusion that needs to be sorted out.

What of Stephen Harper himself, the man who would be prime minister? We may know Paul Martin all too well, but we hardly know his challenger at all. Some of what we know demands greater explanation, most notably the sentiments contained in the infamous Alberta firewall letter. It was incumbent upon Mr. Harper to provide a greater comfort level rather than respond to challengers with quiet contempt or truculence.

Mr. Harper is an exceedingly intelligent man. But his position on same-sex marriage, for instance, is either dumb or, more probably, disingenuous. However one feels about specific issues, the courts play a legitimate role in Canadian society. After all, it was politicians, not judges, who conceived, wrote and adopted the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

Mr. Harper's assertion that the judiciary would respect a free vote of the House of Commons, presumably a vote to restrict marriage to a man and a woman, flies in the face of this assigned role. Indeed, Mr. Harper was not such a stout defender of parliamentary supremacy when elected officials voted to restrict third-party advertising during election campaigns. In that instance, he rightly sought Charter relief from Parliament's oppression of free-speech rights.

So what are his principles here? And why won't he tell us whether he would use the notwithstanding clause, a legitimate constitutional tool, on same-sex marriage?

One is left to conclude that the Conservative Leader prefers the 1867 version of our Constitution, with its explicit division of powers between the provinces and Ottawa, to the 1982 version granting rights to individuals and groups and conferring power upon courts to adjudicate these.

For Mr. Harper, checks and balances would come in a different form. He intends to gradually move to an elected Senate without the inconvenience of constitutional negotiation. And, as a proponent of smaller central government, he favours devolving power to the provinces.

It is at this juncture that the right-of-centre Mr. Harper finds common cause with the left-of-centre Bloc Québécois. We worry that Mr. Harper would both weaken the capacity of Ottawa to govern in the name of Canada and that his party's possible alignment with the Bloc in a minority Parliament would give succour to the separatist movement.

Finally, and oddly, Mr. Harper, a graduate of the fiscally dry Reform Party, has put forward a platform that sails too close to the deficit wind for our comfort. A high quality of life can be built only on the foundation of a strong economy, and a strong economy requires governments to provide a stable fiscal environment. The Conservative platform is inadequately prudent in this regard.

And so we find ourselves in the same conundrum as millions of voters. On the one hand, the Liberals are worn and tired and their leader has not lived up to his billing. But he's performed well in previous incarnations.

On the other hand, Stephen Harper, a product of Central Canadian caution and Alberta's can-do frontier mentality, represents genuine change. Yet there are troubling signs that he has not yet matured into a truly national leader.

As with medicine, the most important principle of Canadian politics should be to do no harm. That means don't risk our fiscal health and don't gamble with our national unity.

We wish Mr. Martin had afforded himself the opportunity of an 18-month tryout before going to the polls. Now the voters have the opportunity to impose a probationary period themselves. Whichever party prevails Monday, a minority looks the most likely outcome. We believe Mr. Martin represents the less risky proposition and deserves a second chance to prove himself. We further believe the Conservatives could use more time to pull their new party together and make their positions and predispositions clearer.

Therefore, we urge a Liberal vote Monday -- not because they've earned the right to re-election but because, at the very least, we can count on them to do little harm and, at best, the near-death experience might help the old Paul Martin find himself and lead Canada more confidently into the future.

Publishing Sensation

June 25, 2004

This has been a great week in the publishing industry; We have seen Bill Clinton's "My Life" - not so much a show stopper as a door stopper; but better than that a new publication from David Beckham - Penalty Taking for Dummies.

Yes, the same David Beckham that sprayed the ball over the bar against Turkey and blamed the sods (the ground gave way under all that ego !) and then did exactly the same thing against Portugal. And dont forget the missed penalty against the French !

Relive those great moments as step by slippery step Becks takes you through his great penalty moments and how to make sure that you know it is not his fault as he balloons another one over the bar.

A sure fire best seller!
 

England's shoot out curse

June 25, 2004

It was all too predictable. England seem cursed never to win a penalty shoot-out. Lisbon 2004 will be remembered, like St-Etienne 1998, Wembley 1996 and Turin 1990. And I have seen them all.

The English will search for a scape-goat. But it really was their own extreme negativity that cost them the game. A 9-1 formation for the last 30 minutes; the substitution of Gerrard and Scholes. England got what they deserved.

Campbell's 90th minute goal would have been disallowed by 90% of referees; although Ricardo, the drama queen of the night, made little effort to get to the ball. The Sun newspaper lead sits sports coverage with the woeful headine; You Swiss Banker. And helpfully the Sun says that "you can tell bungling ref Meier just what you think of his decision - on his own website. Go to www.ursmeier.ch/referee/ and click on the feedback section. Under “vorname” enter your first name, under “nachname” enter your surname. Then fill in your email address — and let rip. Far be it for me to discourage anyone !

EEC - embarrassing euro calls

June 24 2004

Only one of my four semi final tips is still in the tournament and the quarter finals have not even started, No wonder I do not place bets ! Bye bye Germany, you will not be missed. Spain managed to under-perform even earlier than usual and the Italians are busy blaming everyone except themselves.

Football maths

June 23, 2004

Today's AFP preview of the England versus Portugal quarter final contains the following wonderful football maths from England's Michael Owen.

"Half of me is overjoyed that we're through to the quarter-finals but five per cent of me is disappointed I haven't scored as well," Owen admitted.

Vancouver: summer's night dream

June 19, 2004                                                       

The longest day of the year is this weekend; this picture was taken at about 9.30pm at night as the sun set over English Bay in Vancouver.

Canada's election; a crisis of leadership

June 16 2004

The trouble with Canada's 28 July federal election is that none of the leaders are either liked or indeed respected. People will grunt that Paul Martin (Liberal) was an ok finance minister; but as a leader he is not well considered.

No one (especially outside Canada) can name the leader of her majesty's loyal opposition; Stephen Harper of the Conservative Party and the NDP are full of bluster but represent little. The resurgence of the Bloc Quebecois is bringing back many of the old separatist fears.

Canadians at heart have always seemed to me to be liberal in outlook and to have progressive social views. They are fiscally responsible; they think budgets should be balanced; they are wary of the USA and believe that Bush was wrong to invade Iraq. Yet they appear to be seriously considering a vote for Harper's Conservatives despite the fact that he believes none of these things.

There are 308 seats in Canada's parliament; 106 of them are in Ontario. All but three of Ontario's seats were held by the Liberal Party after the 2000 election. Across Ontario polls now suggest that the Liberals may win 55-60 seats. The party leaders will all spend a great deal of time in Ontario over the next 12 days of polling.

The Liberals are clearly worried. The over the top TV commercials portray Canada as a USA puppet; a nation with no protection of minority rights, where a woman has no right to choose, that would have gone to war with Iraq; and that would sacrifice Medicare. Their ads may just be a bit too strident. But many voters are not sure who is the real Stephen Harper.

What is clear is that an unusually large number of voters are still undecided. The TV debates will have done little to help them decide. The moderator was far to generous in allowing all delegates to talk at once; Martin talked mainly to the camera and not to the other leaders; Jack Layton yapped away as though he had been told to talk non stop throughout and Harper just looked a little out of his league.

How will this end up; my guess is that many undecided voters are Liberal; they have given Martin's party a good telling off but are not ready to vote them out of office. The Liberals will likely be the largest party in the Parliament. But leading a minority government; assume that the Bloc Quebecois takes 65 (of Quebec's 75 seats); that the NDP takes maybe 23 seats; the Liberals 130 and the Conservatives 90. It will make for an uneasy Parliament; and maybe another early election in say 2006.

England's nightmare - France 2 England 1

June 13 2004

With a one nil lead after 90 minutes despite a missed penalty by Beckham England contrived to concede two injury time goals from a Zidane free kick and a Zidane penalty.

The free kick, clumsily conceded by Heskey saw Zidane put the ball into the side pf the goal James' should have had covered; but he did not trust his wall and was left flat footed.

Then a crazy backpass attempt left James to bring down Henri and the rest was inevitable.

And Beckham's penalty miss was in the end decisive. It was well hit but at a comfortable height for Barthez. At 2-0 France would have been buried. To be honest it was one of Beckham's few contributions to the game. He was poor as was Owen.

King and Campbell were faultless in defence. They deserved better. And in term of chances and possession the French probably deserved it; they just did not need to be handed the game on a silver platter.

England having done so much that was right may be inconsolable. That may be the end of England's tournament.

Reagan: The consequences of inaction

June 11 2004

It is a little bizarre watching the near deification of Ronald Reagan. Maybe it says a lot about the lack of faith in the current leadership. Maybe people look back nostalgically to a time when they felt better than they do now.

But Reagan's conservatism had many faults. The Iran Contra-gate scandal is a big one. Less discussed but maybe of greater import was Reagan's almost total inaction on AIDS. In 1981 only 199 cases of AIDS had been reported in the USA. By the time he left office in 1989 more than 46,000 Americans had died. There was a fear and hysteria about AIDS. And the Reagan administration did not want to hear the issues or to offer sympathy or help to a perceived "gay" disease.

Reagan made no mention of the disease until a speech in 1987. And even then it was a weak message that said little about how the disease was transmitted and offered nothing in terms of federal funding for research.

The tone set by Reagan's administration; the lack of action as AIDS became a national and global issue may have cots hundreds of thousands of US lives and maybe millions globally.

She said; they said

June 9 2004

I always get frustrated when people act or behave in a way that seems simply irrational; or when they simply do not seem to understand reason.

Anson Chan is widely admired in Hong Kong and yes, she is also widely admired in the West as well. She is a Chinese; but she understands better than most values of diplomacy and good governance. She understands better than most that people will respond more willingly to a carrot than to a stick.

Time magazine's June 14, 2004 edition has a long and decently balanced (well. I think so; many in China will disagree) article title Hong Kong's defiance. I suspect that this might have been the lead story had Ronnie Reagan not died.

Beijing's response (see below) is exactly the heavy handed brow beating that Ms. Chan is alarmed by. Failing to take a deep breath China Daily lashed out at Ms. Chan saying that  "the way she attempted to seize power was identical to that of the "Gang of Four." The ironies in Beijing's response are all too obvious. The threats are hardly subtle.

Most people in Hong Kong will dismiss all of this as a feather duster fight and will get on with the important business of making money. But the two articles reflect the very polarization that worries Ms. Chan. Let us all hope that calmer, wiser and more conciliatory voices can be heard from Beijing.

Trust Us

BY ANSON CHAN

Hong Kong will soon be celebrating the seventh anniversary of its establishment as a highly autonomous Special Administrative Region of China under the concept of "one country, two systems." Is there much to celebrate?

For the greater part of the past seven years, China's central government has largely left Hong Kong to govern itself. If we have not done a very good job of it, the blame cannot be laid at Beijing's door. Indeed, until recently, the standing and popularity of mainland leaders in the local community had steadily risen. But since the unexpectedly large turnout of demonstrators for democracy last July 1, Beijing's stance toward Hong Kong appears to have hardened. The central government has moved swiftly to lay down the law as far as the elections of the territory's Chief Executive and members of the Legislative Council are concerned. While Beijing has a constitutional right to do so, the manner in which the central government has handled this whole issue, coupled with its public rhetoric and posturing reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution, have left most Hong Kong people puzzled, hurt and frustrated.

I do not doubt that Beijing wants what is best for Hong Kong. In its eyes, stability is key. But the tactics being employed are likely to have the opposite effect. Hong Kong society is now polarized to an extent not seen in recent history. There is growing intolerance of different viewpoints. The recent departure of three popular Hong Kong talk-show hosts in quick succession has raised fears about freedom of expression. In this game of shadow boxing, it is increasingly difficult to pinpoint who are the instigators and who are the innocent bystanders or victims. There's a wide gap in mind-set and values, which only genuine communication and trust can bridge. And bridge it we must if we are to secure our future, with our rights and freedoms intact.

Hong Kong has yet to find an identity that it is comfortable with. Some would have us disown our past. Others seem oblivious to the fact that, while embracing "one country," it is the "two systems" that sets Hong Kong apart from the mainland. The vast majority of Hong Kongers are proud to be Chinese and part of an increasingly strong country seeking to play a bigger role in the international community. At the same time, Hong Kong people treasure the freedoms and rights enshrined in the territory's constitution. And they will fight to protect those rights. This does not mean they love their country less than self-professed patriots do. We yearn mainly for good, strong and transparent governance.

Despite the political gloom, let us not forget that Hong Kong remains a city that works. Our streets are safe; our transport is efficient and runs on time; there is the rule of law, free flow of information, and a level playing field where business can be conducted without hassle. Our people are a sophisticated and pragmatic lot with a good deal of common sense. We wish to continue to make a contribution toward the modernization and prosperity of our country. We have no wish to push for independence nor to destabilize the mainland. We ask our leaders in Beijing to put a little more trust in us. That trust will not be misplaced.

Anson Chan was Chief Secretary in Hong Kong's last British administration and in its first post-handover government

Anson Chan is distorting the truth to vilify Beijing
Xu Simin
2004-06-09

In an article she wrote in the latest issue of Time magazine, Anson Chan, the retired chief secretary, unfairly criticized the way the central government had been dealing with the SAR, likening its behaviour to the malpractices during the "cultural revolution". Speaking in a tone as if she were representing Hong Kong, she called upon the central government to trust Hong Kong people.

Chan's attack on and vilification of the central government are in violation of the facts as well as her own conscience. She is not qualified to represent Hong Kong people whom she was trying to mislead.

On the one hand, Chan admitted in her article that the central authorities were empowered by the Constitution to concern themselves with the methods to select the chief executive and legislators in Hong Kong. At the same time, however, she lashed out at the central government for discharging its right and duty, which had actually been executed in a fair, reasonable and legal way. Her rebuke did not hold water.

Timely interpretation

Hong Kong society has witnessed major disputes surrounding the election methods for the chief executive and legislators in 2007 and beyond, which have brought about unnecessary conflicts and polarization in the community.

After consulting and absorbing opinions from a broad spectrum of society, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) made a timely and authoritative interpretation of the Basic Law and ruling on the SAR's constitutional development.

These moves are conducive to the stable development of the territory's political system along the path of the Basic Law.

The progress may not satisfy the differing demands of Hong Kong people on the pace of democratization, but it tallies with mainstream opinion that values prosperity and stability and stresses the significance of developing a democratic system in a gradual and orderly manner.

The NPCSC interpretation and decision have clarified a host of uncertainties over the issue of constitutional development. They have gone a long way in underpinning the executive-led regime, enabling the SAR to foster social consensus and to hammer out, through rational discussions, a political reform proposal that accords with the actual situation in the community.

Chan's total disregard of facts when she tried to discredit Beijing has once again proven that she is only trying to gain fame for herself with her self-proclaimed title of "Hong Kong's conscience". She is not worthy of this reputation and it is now necessary to remove this pretence of hers.

As a matter of fact, Chan recently expressed disappointment over the NPCSC decision, claiming that it would undermine Hongkongers' confidence in "One Country, Two Systems" and a high degree of autonomy.

Chief Secretary Donald Tsang, who was visiting Zhanjiang at that time, immediately countered that ever since reunification in 1997, Hong Kong people had been enjoying "One Country, Two Systems" and a high degree of autonomy, and the degree had never been crippled.

Business leader Gordon Wu also pointed out that Chan's accusation was totally wrong, and that she was harping on the same old tune in her recent Time magazine article.

In an interview with Newsweek not long before Hong Kong's return to the motherland, Chan claimed to be "Hong Kong's conscience". The magazine put her on the cover, describing her as Hong Kong's "Iron Lady" in a banner headline and calling her a "fighter".

The deeds of this so-called "Hong Kong conscience", who disregards facts and violates conscience, are like the classic story of Hua Pi in "Strange Tales from a Lonely Studio" - full of evil tricks.

Attacks against Beijing

Just before she retired, Chan told reporters, "I have served for more than 38 years in the Civil Service and seven years in the position of chief secretary...I have to leave sooner or later. All feasts must ultimately break up. Therefore I will never make any comments (on the government) from the sideline after I retire."

However, not only did she "make comments from the sideline", she has even smeared and attacked the central government without paying due respect to the facts. Such behaviour contravened not only the tradition of the Hong Kong government, but also her own words. Such flip-flops have manifested that her words are not trustworthy.

Before 1997, the British-Hong Kong government exerted tight control over senior officials. The majority of retired British officials had to return to their homeland, while those left behind were not allowed to comment on politics.

After her retirement, however, Chan has been making increasingly frequent attacks on the SAR and central governments, prejudicing seriously the tradition under which retired civil servants do not intervene in politics.

Aside from pocketing a one-off provident fund of HK$10 million, this retired member of the government's upper echelon continues to receive a monthly pension payment of tens of thousands of dollars. Taxpayers, therefore, have the right to ask Chan to speak from her conscience and on a fairer basis. If she receives the pension payment on the one hand and acts against taxpayers' interests on the other, is she going against her own conscience? This is a question Chan should ask herself.

Chan has accused the central government of dividing the local community to an unprecedented degree and continuously undermining society's tolerance toward different opinions. The fact is, the very party that has been doing that is Chan herself.

As the "pet" of the British, Chan was a key figure in the post-reunification ruling team deployed by Chris Patten, who tried to leave behind British influence within the SAR government. Chan was involved in all the various wrangles, conflicts and dissensions since reunification, directly or indirectly.

In 2000, Robert Chung, director of the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong, divulged in two newspapers that the chief executive had put pressure on him through a third party with a view to influencing opinion polls on his popularity.

During the early stage of the episode, Chan called upon Chung to reveal the identity of the man behind the scene. When Andrew Lo Cheung-on was exposed, Chan asserted inside the government that Lu should be dismissed. At that time, an official who was Chan's confidant, frequently passed on to high managements of newspapers information that was unfavourable to Tung, pouring oil on the flames in the first wave of an anti-Tung campaign. The identity of the invisible hand could not be more obvious. Meanwhile, Chan's friends in the political arena circulated the rumour that she might run for the office of the second-term chief executive. This rumour might have had some truth in it.

Later, the political celebrity Allen Lee stressed, on the eve of the election for the second-term chief executive, that Chan stood a chance to become the new chief executive. The result of his remarks was another wave of anti-Tung sentiment.

Facts have shown without ambiguity that this "Hong Kong conscience" is vehemently ambitious, ready to whip up a campaign to topple Tung out of her craven desire for power. The way she attacked and smeared the central government in its handling of the SARS outbreak was similar to what was practised in the "cultural revolution". The way she attempted to seize power was identical to that of the "Gang of Four".

Resistance to co-operation

When she chaired the high-level Guangdong-Hong Kong joint conference, she adopted an attitude of resistance instead of co-operation, about which the public and the business sector had complained all along. While the Guangdong government often prepared proposals for bilateral co-operation, the Hong Kong side had nothing similar to offer. The two parties met only once annually, and the situation dragged on for a few years.

On July 1, 2002, Chan wrote an article in The Financial Times, saying that Hong Kong should not expect Beijing to be its saviour, and that Hong Kong must not become more Chinese in order to receive economic benefits. She was attempting to obstruct the intensification of Guangdong-Hong Kong economic co-operation.

Ronnie Chan, another business leader, once criticized Chan as being one of the persons who knew the least about the motherland, talking only about "Two Systems" and neglecting "One Country". Her attitude had led to the waste of three to four years in collaboration across the border. It was not until four to five years after reunification that the voice of co-operative development became louder. Had this initiative been taken earlier, many of the plans would have materialized by now.

When she was chairman of the Basic Law Promotion Steering Committee, Chan was again criticized by the public for stressing "Two Systems" and disregarding "One Country".

The legislation for Article 23 that began in 2002 was actually proposed soon after reunification. It was Chan who had reservations over the legislation. She engaged in heated debates with Tung over the matter and no consensus was reached, thereby leading to procrastination in the legislation. The "pro-democracy" camp subsequently made use of the economic recession to stage the July 1 demonstration that led to the shelving of the bill.

Chan has no tolerance for different opinions. At meetings of the NPC and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in 1998, I criticized Radio Television Hong Kong, the government-run broadcaster, for over-stressing its editorial independence and specializing in lambasting and opposing the SAR and central governments and the chief executive. I also pointed out that one of its programmes - "Headline News" - was cynical. Being unable to tolerate dissenting opinions, Chan openly criticized my comments as "inappropriate". She said my words would make society believe that somebody was trying to invite the central government to intervene in the SAR's affairs.

Chan has taken society's magnanimity as acquiescence for retired senior officials to break the tradition of not commenting on government policies. She is coming forward more frequently to attack and smear the SAR and central governments. That her excessive behaviour has sparked a strong backlash from the community is a matter of course.

I am hereby giving Chan a piece of advice: your pretence cannot cover up your evil tricks. The self-styled "Conscience of Hong Kong" should be ashamed of herself.

The author is a former standing member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. The article was published in Wen Wei Po yesterday.

HK Edition 06/09/2004 page2)

European Championship predictions

June 9 2004

The European Football Championships kick off in Portugal on Friday. Expect the usual bouts of insane thuggery off the pitch and plenty of skull duggery on the pitch.

The urge to make predictions is too strong; so here are the quarter final line ups:

Spain vs England; Italy vs Czech Republic; France vs Portugal and Germany vs Sweden.

The semi finals will be:

Spain vs Italy and France vs Germany. (sorry England!)

And France will beat Spain in the final; not because the French are the better team; just because the Spanish never quite do what they should (just like the Armada!).

The final is on Sunday 4th July.

PLA stamps its authority on Hong Kong

June 8 2004

With sensitive timing, immediately after the Tiananmen commemorations, the Hong Kong government has stooped to a new low in its groveling to Beijing.

The PLA, those same people who massacred 3,000 people in Tiananmen Square fifteen years ago, are now being celebrated in a new issue of postage stamps from Hong Kong Post.

The website eulogises an army that has won "the hearts of Hong Kong people." Just a gentle reminder of who is in charge before the 1 July 2004 handover holiday and the pro-change and pro-democracy march that will take place that day.

From the Hong Kong Post website:

"The People's Liberation Army Forces, Hong Kong" Special Stamps
Issue Date: 30 June 2004

The People’s Liberation Army Forces arrived in Hong Kong at zero hour on 1 July 1997. Known as the PLA (HK), their primary responsibility is for the defence of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

For the past seven years, the PLA (HK) has performed its defence responsibility admirably, effectively upholding the principle of “one country, two systems” and winning the hearts of Hong Kong people by their community spirit.

Hongkong Post pays tribute to the PLA (HK) with the issue of six new stamps featuring the various faces of the Forces:

Tiananmen's message

June 4 2004

Fifteen years ago tonight the Chinese authorities released troops and tanks to crush the student protests in Tiananmen Square. Reliable estimates (The Red Cross) are that 3,000 Chinese died that night at the hands of their own people.

But the issues that the students were protesting are even more valid now than in 1989. The real issue was corruption; and the students argued that government corruption could only be curtailed through establishing democratic institutions. The students request was that the Communist party would open a public dialogue to discuss reform. Fifteen years later there are no independent checks in China; the party is policed by the party.

What was the Party fearful of? The answer became clearer with the oppression of Falun Gong. The Party fears the ability of other groups to organise.

And herein lies the message. When forced to choose between the secure future of the Communist Party and the best interests of the nation the party will choose itself every time.

For the rest of the world, after brief shock and bland statements, it was back to the business of making money from and in China. Morality and human rights come second and third to money making.

"China Daily"  has mainland and Hong Kong English language editions. Neither mentions the events of 15 years ago in today's editions. Known dissidents are placed under house arrest. Universities are being monitored and foreign news tv broadcasts restricted (satellite maintenance was the usual hotel excuse). But these events must not and cannot be ignored.

“Lies written in ink can never disguise facts written in blood” (Lu Xun).  

Jasper Becker was fired by the South China Morning Post for writing a little too truthfully about China. He is now China correspondent for the UK's Independent Newspaper. His commentary on the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre can be found at:

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/story.jsp?story=527995

Why democracy matters

June 2 2004.

This week Iraq is now within less than a month of having a new Iraqi government, this week a new Indian government starts work, this week where we pay homage to those who fought to free Europe from tyranny on the D-Day beaches and this week where we remember the Chinese students who died in Tiananmen Square fifteen years ago.

Nooraine Fazal provides below a very thoughtful and optimistic inside view of the Congress Party's shock political win.

A simple letter in Newsweek summons up simple truths that we should not lose site of:

"We are not tyrannical imperialists but people who thoughtfully commit our men to defend freedom. Dissent is not traitorous but a valuable part of that freedom. It is our obligation as part of a free and democratic society to express our doubts about the decisions of our leaders and to deeply examine the purpose of committing young men and women to war.

India Votes - a fractured verdict?

Nooraine Fazal provides an insider's account of democracy at work in India.

June 2, 2004.

Vajpayee resigns

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (headed a ruling coalition of 20+ parties called the NDA)  on 13^th May 2004 in a televised address to the nation. “Elections to the 14th Lok Sabha (Indian Parliament) are over. The voters have given their verdict. I accept the verdict"….”it is always with the will of the people that governments have been formed--and changed (in India). "This power of democracy is a matter of pride for our country, something which we must always cherish, preserve and further strengthen."

AMEN!! I said  to Vajpayee’s words!!

On a personal note….

I had returned home to India after twelve years of “self exile”. The main reasons I had returned  were I believed parts of India were “shining” thanks largely to the economic reforms unleashed by the Congress in 1991 (subsequent governments built on them); in the face of national bankruptcy. Yes, I guess you could call me one of  the fortunate “urban elite” for whom India could be a land of tremendous opportunity. And yet, my optimism was tempered with fear.

I believed that India was at the cross roads and needed to choose the type of India it wanted to be (I returned because I wanted to participate in that decision) – the India I want - a secular developed liberal democracy; confident of its standing globally or one which I thought it was developing into thanks to the BJP’s (leading partner of the NDA – the ruling coalition over the past six year) divisive politics - an inward looking Hindu Nationalist country; where economic reforms benefit primarily the middle class & the rich.

I sat there glued to the TV (with mixed feelings best described as  1/3 disbelief, 1/3 jubilant and 1/3 worried) as the results poured in across the country. Yes the seemingly impossible was happening - the NDA coalition which called the election early because it was confident of a victory had lost. I don’t believe even the President of the Congress party – Sonia Gandhi, really thought this was possible until well after the last vote was cast!

As it sunk in, Robert asked me: “How it happened? What is the message & how does it impact the neighbors & the US”? As someone who watched  & sometimes contributed (by way of constructive? feedback) the development of rascott.com from its infancy into an excellent personal web site; I decided to take up the opportunity. This is a first for me – an attempt to write something beyond a sales proposal!! So here goes with part one … 

So what happened? What’s the message?

At a macro level …..

1) The numbers indicate a fractured verdict with no clear winner  – the “winning” coalition - congress (INC) and its allies received 34.60%; the losers & the main opposition BJP and its allies 35.25% and others (primarily the Left / Communists, Independents and regional parties from the most populous state in India – UP) 27.69%.

2) The % of vote share for the two national parties the ruling BJP and the main opposition Congress has fallen by 1.5% since the 1999 national election (this despite claims by the foreign media about “Gandhi’s congress sweeping India”!!) The gainers were regional parties and the Communists (best performance since independence; be in two border states of West Bengal & Kerela). Interestingly of the votes the BJP lost; only .1% of that vote was gained by the Congress

For a graphical representation on the final tally  refer to http://specials.rediff.com/election/poll04results.htm

For % of vote share (and an alphabet soup for anyone without a Phd in Indian politics!) for various political parties http://www.rediff.com/election/ls04detail.htm#cong

Why this result? The message from the Indian electorate!

1)     It indicates that basic local issues (the necessities of roti, kapda, makan – Hindustani for bread, clothes & house & sadak, pani – roads, water) take precedence over national ones such as peace with Pakistan & China;  prospect of peace in Kashmir; the “feel good factor” – the 5-8%+ GDP growth rate and India thrashing Pakistan at cricket!! )

2)     The Indian voter voted against perceived misgovernance across the length & breadth of the country – the so called “anti incumbency” factor! This was demonstrated in almost every state; including two states my home state of Karnataka and neighboring state of Andhra Pradesh which were known to be models of good governance in urban India. Exceptions to this were four (of 28) which held state level elections recently (BJP won three of four and therefore called a national election eight months ahead of time) where the honeymoon continued; the “Bimaru” (economically backward) state of  Bihar were muscle power and the alliances struck by the ruling RJD ruled supreme and West Bengal were the communists are deeply rooted in the system. This has been the case time and again in the hope that the Indian political parties will learn – alas their memory is short! Perhaps this time……?!

3)     The Indian voter voted for more reforms, not less! Although the rhetoric of the communists would have you believe otherwise – even in the state of West Bengal were the Commies are the ruling party; they  have embraced both privatization and foreign investment; including prohibiting labour strikes in the “strategic” IT sector (New Labour take note)!

4)     Largely rejected the divisive politics of the BJP. The two major events which have made the headlines internationally include the destruction of a mosque in Ayodya (they believe it was the birthplace of Lord Ram), the state of UP in 1991 and the Gujarat riots in 2002 which saw the BJP government actively getting involved in ethnically cleansing 1000s of Muslims. To add insult to injury none of the accused have been booked by the Gujarat High court,  (the Supreme Court is fighting this one) as yet.

At a lower but equally significant level people who saw each other as Indians first, rather than Hindu or Muslim or any of the other many religions practiced in India; people who celebrated each others festivals with equal gusto are now increasingly defining themselves as Hindu or Muslim or….first; Indian second. Debates about why a Muslim man is allowed four wives and not a Hindu; are increasingly common. (Most men I know think one wife is plenty; but hey what do I know?!) India does not have a common civil law  … but that’s a topic for another day!

BJP lost a good chunk of their parliamentary seats in the state of Gujarat; despite winning the state elections after the riots. The star or should I say the villain of the show – Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat (who in my view should be  tried in an international court of law ) is fighting to retain his chair, post the national elections.   

That said the BJP held on to most of their other voter base in the Hindi Heartland

(by way of personal background ……I like to consider myself as a “citizen of the world”….I am  born to a Muslim family whose ancestors are from Gujarat, Rajasthan and a region which is now a part of Pakistan)

5)     the Muslim vote (dare I say “vote bank”!)… related to point 4. The BJP particularly Vajpayee realized this perhaps a bit late in the day. Majority of the time the Muslim vote determines who the winner is. You start with a negative 14% if the Muslims do not want you in office. Well guess they didn’t want the BJP!!

6)     Sonia Gandhi’s foreigner issue –  well, not really an election issue. This despite the BJP’s attempts to turn this election into a presidential one; pitting the Indian born statesman (er yes the same one who admitted to have commenced the recent peace process in Kashmir on a personal whim!! That said I do believe that he is the one person who could have brought peace to the sub continent) – Vajpayee against the Italian born widow of Rajiv Gandhi (former PM of India); a political novice in comparison. “The poet vs the news reader”!! The pluralities of Indian politics defeated that strategy.

Reasons for this (a) she didn’t project herself as the prime ministerial candidate for the congress (b)  Indians believe that once a woman marries into a household she becomes a part of that household including adopting the nationality (c) to a lesser extent; but a factor all the same – not everyone is aware of her foreign origin (d) most people, even those opposed to the concept of a dynasty ruling India or a person of foreign origin have developed a (grudging in some cases!) respect for her hard work & determination in the face of adversity; including the assassination of her husband and mother in law.

Note - There is some (muted) debate whether a person of foreign origin is allowed to hold elected office in India. On the face of it there appears to be nothing in the Indian constitution which prohibits it; however there apparently is a clause about reciprocity of rights which may prevent ……

7)     The “Amma” factor – i.e. Indira Gandhi (The former prime minister. The Iron Lady of the sub continent! Sonia Gandhi’s mother in law) who at one stage was synonymous with the Congress hand (party symbol). The Congress starts any election with minimum 10% vote in their kitty.

Although the foreign media attributed the Congress victory to the entry of Priyanka & Rahul Gandhi (Indira Gandhi’s grand children) into active politics; I don’t believe there is enough data to back this up; given that they restricted their campaign to a few constituencies in state of UP. The Congress’s tally in fact went down marginally in UP in comparison to the previous elections

8)     Alliance management – despite the BJP’s self proclaimed success in managing a coalition; they lost a key ally in  DMK in the state of Tamil Nadu months before the election. Guess how many seats the Congress, DMK and their allies won in Tamil Nadu? You got it -  39 out of 39!! This state alone could have swung the election in favour of the BJP!! Btw Congress had accused the DMK of being involved in / being sympathetic towards the LTTE; a terrorist outfit believed to be behind Rajiv Gandhi’s assignation! As they say “politics is the art of the impossible”!

9)     India “Shining” or not – the BJP’s arrogant campaign highlighted to the have-nots just how deep the divide is. Telling 300 million people who live below the poverty line that they are shining is not a brilliant idea!!  Contrast this with the Congress’s “ Congress ka haath  aam admi ka saath”; i.e. “Congress’s hand is with the common man”.

Ultimately India is still a country were the poor outnumber the rich; the rural population the urban. The BJP could not see beyond the urban elite. Perhaps the glare of India shining blinded them temporarily!! Mind you a good proportion of the urban population in the major metros of Delhi, Mumbai / Bombay, Calcutta, Chennai / Madras and to a lesser extent my home city Bangalore voted for Congress and its allies.

In conclusion I don’t believe it was a fractured verdict! I believe the message from the Indian electorate is loud & clear - that we need more reform; not less – both economic AND POLITICAL. We can’t have one without the other; if we are to ensure that the benefits of “development” are to spread across the socio-economic sections of India. Failing which the Indian electorate; particularly the rural and economically disadvantaged population will continue to vote out governments across the political and ideological spectrum, for their misgovernance and corruption.

Nooraine Fazal, June 2004

Pattaya Today revisited

June 2 2004,

A visit to the wonderfully written Pattaya Today newspaper is always a good reminder that life is full of more drama than any soap opera will ever be !

It is called Pattaya Today but is only published every two weeks; Pattaya Fortnightly would be more honest. But it is 20 baht well spent.

Some gems from the current edition:

British and Hong Kong passport holder David Viner, 57, who lives in a 400 baht guest house in Jomtien, has not paid his rent to Mrs. Sommai Dohnayburi, but claims that he was one of the first 400 owners of a Thailand Elite card. (More on the Elite cards when I want to have a real vent !).

A twenty year old khatoey who tried to engage a Bahraini tourist in "horizontal leisure pursuits but apparently without success. What happened next is difficult to know for sure." The tourist alleges his wallet was taken. The khatoey says that the tourist became abusive and that he/she tried to tell him that his denial could be more courteous "when declining a perfectly reasonable offer of entertainment" The wallet was not found.

A German resident who has not got the knack for home decoration. Joern Knaak, 55, had to be hospitalized after injuring himself with a circular saw. His Thai wife said that he went berserk in their flat.

A monk that was arrested for improper behaviour. "Very drunk and unable to stand up." I guess he will try to kick that habit !

Closure of the Holding Club after tourist police went to check for vulgar shows that might be in progress. Among equipment seized were darts and a small dart board and bananas, "although their role on stage has not been made plain".

A 46 year old German man who walks around Soi 8 completely naked; apparently for hours on end He is presumably looking to see which pool chair he left his towel on !

MAY 2004

Why human rights matter

May 22 2004

I need help translating you will never walk alone into Thai!!

I have tried to avoid commenting on the proposed investment vy the Prime Minister of Thailand or Shin Corp of the Thai tax payer in venerable Liverpool Football Club.

Business is business. Thaksin first wanted to buy a stake in Fulham, now Liverpool; and if he doesn't get a stake in Liverpool then he will look elsewhere. Memo to the Prime Minister - Watford always need the cash.

There is a lot of skepticism in Liverpool and in Thailand about this deal. But for once I am a contrarian. It is potentially brilliant.

The intent is to acquire a 30 per cent stake in Liverpool football club, using Bt4.6bn (£63m) raised through a national lottery. Each lottery ticket will cost Baht 1,000. At least 8 million tickets will need to be sold to cover the investment and prizes and costs.

Fixing Bangkok airport

May 17, 2004

Bangkok airport really is a miserable place; it works in that passengers get processed on and off airplanes with reasonable efficiency; but that is about it !

But it is hardly a warm welcome to the land of smiles.

Arriving last night the lady at immigration had clearly been trained in cold war Russia.

Then after immigration and customs you are confronted by the limousine vultures. There is only one way out of the terminal and that is through this throng of touts. Why they cannot be restricted behind desks where they can be approached only if the service is needed is a mystery.

They tug at you, follow you, ask where you are going. They say they are taxis; they are not. The queue for the public taxi service is outside the building. The are not allowed to tout inside. The limo services are about double the cost of the public taxis. If you want to go by the expressway do check whether the toll is or is not included in the limo fare.

The only catch with the public taxis is that all the new taxis are in the city. The oldest crocks are all at the airport. I have no idea why this is given that there are so many new taxis in the city.

Mirror editor sacked

May 15 2004

If he had resigned he could have gone with greater dignity. Instead Piers Morgan was escorted off the Mirror premises as the newspaper was forced to apologise for being hoaxed.

The Iraq war gets another casualty. The head of the BBC had to resign over the Hutton affair. Now the editor of a major UK tabloid. There are some interesting lessons for good news reporting.

Misleading people and endangering lives

May 14 2004

The UK government has now stated what many people suspected; that the front page pictures carried by the influential tabloid - Daily Mirror were in fact staged fakes taken outside Iraq.

The Mirror is digging its heels in and defiantly challenging the government to produce its evidence. But the pictures show no faces; and the source of the pictures is unknown.

The investigation of the abuse of Iraqi prisoners by British forces continues. There was clearly a problem. Although it appears to have been dealt with quickly and s not as widespread as the US abuses.

But if the pictures are fake then there are some hard questions that need to be answered by the newspaper's editor, Piers Morgan. How was he misled? What checks did he perform before publication? What money changed hands? Why - if there was any shadow of doubt in his mind - was the paper's presentation of the pictures so unequivocal? What was the urgency?

India's election shock

May 13, 2004

2004 may become a defining year for the vitality of democracy.

Against all predictions the BJP today has conceded defeat to Sonia Gandhi's Congress Party. Ms Gandhi, is set to become the new Prime Mininister. She has pushed for a secular India in contrast to the BJP's Hindu nationalist message, is the widow of the former prime minister Rajiv Ghandi who was killed in a 1991 suicide bombing.

The BJP were generally expected to ease to victory based on their "Shining India" campaign, which showed off a surging economy, relative peace with Pakistan, a successful cricket team and even good monsoon rain.

Now 57, Ms. Gandhi became an Indian citizen in 1983. Born in Italy she went to India as a 21 year old bride. She married into a dynasty that had dominated Indian politics since independence from British colonial rule in 1947. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, headed the country from independence until his 1964 death. He was followed by his daughter, Indira Gandhi; she was killed by her own bodyguards in 1984. Her son Rajiv, an airline pilot and Sonia’s husband, was reluctantly forced to take the political spotlight.

Rajiv won the following election with an unprecedented majority, but his attempts to open India’s stagnant economy and shrink its bloated bureaucracy cost him a lot of his popularity. He lost power in 1989, and was killed two years later while campaigning.

Ms Gandhi officially took charge of the Congress Party in 1998 and was elected to parliament in the last elections in 1999.

Under her leadership, the party turned in its worst performance since Independence in the 1999 general elections. Congress also performed indifferently in last year’s state elections.

However, the Gandhi name is still revered in India and Congress is looking to Mrs Gandhi to translate that feeling into votes. And traveling widely throughout the country in this campaign she appears to have done exactly that.

Congress will not have a clear majority in Parliament. But then nor did the BJP. The Congress led coalition is likely to have to depend on the support of leftist parties, who registered their best performance yet.

The new government is likely to continue the reforms crucial for Asia's third-largest economy. But the message that they will have heard is that the benefits must percolate down to the poor.

The rural poor have sent a loud message that the new economic wealth of India cannot be restricted to the urban upper classes. The people have spoken. Isn't democracy wonderful?

Our Immoral World

May 13, 2004

Find me a religious text anywhere that says that you can saw a man's head off in the name of God. The chilling video and pictures of the execution of an American civilian have given the American hard-liners exactly the message that they need to support their war.

It is almost like a game of which side can outrage the other more in order that they can continue this barbaric war.

Below are two very different views of world, from the Guardian in the UK and from the Republican Boston Herald newspaper.

All I know is that listening to President Bush saying that those who murdered Mr Berg would be hunted down and brought to trial was profoundly depressing. An eye for an eye, however it is done, will not win the war. The war is for the hearts and minds of the people. No one is winning right now. 

Singapore's Happy Loos !

May 12, 2004

The Associate Press carried the following report today. As a public service to my reader I have to share this with you. And as a further public service this is the link to the World Toilet Organization.

Did you know that the 2004 World Toilet Summit will be held in Beijing where apparently you will be able to meet the movers and shakers of the industry !!! Must be all that "All Bran" served at the breakfast meetings!

Surely there must also be a World Toilet Graffiti Organization !

Anyway back to the AP article: hopefully the map will be fully absorbent just in case their is a papers shortage in you favoured loo !

"When finicky tourists in Singapore hear nature's call, they'll know where to go.

How others see Thailand

11 May 2004

I had always assumed that Britain's "The Guardian" newspaper was a bit more fair minded than most. Much of their writing is intelligent and thought provoking. But occasionally stereotyping and cheap commentary appears in their columns as well.

In a report on Thai Prime Minister Thaksin's proposed purchase of 30% of Liverpool FC the Guardian wrote:

It is the opening line that is so unnecessary. Is that really what educated outsiders think of Thailand? If it is then the Proposed purchase of Liverpool FC and the marketing and branding opportunities that come with it may make the investment a public relations master stroke.

But really the Guardian can and should do better. One of the reasons that such a poor image of Thailand continues is that it is too easy to take cheap shots rather than consider Thailand for all its complexities.

I sent the following to the Guardian reader's editor. I will be interested to see his response, if any.

The China squeeze

9 May 2004

If it was not enough to have a large part of the Chinese Navy sailing through Victoria harbour the mainland authorities are stepping up pressure on Hong Kong's freedom of speech.

The state-run Xinhua news agency quoted a top official with China's liaison office in Hong Kong as saying local legislators would be acting unconstitutionally if they consider motions that express "discontent with" or "condemn" China's ruling on democratic reform.

It was the first such warning since the territory reverted to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.

In a sadly unhelpful addition to the debate, Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, was quoted in one of Hong Kong's Chinese newspaper's, Ming Pao, as branding the Legislature's democracy advocates as "bananas" - yellow-skinned Chinese with Western beliefs. "These people, who bad-mouth China and Hong Kong, are sinners of the Chinese nation," he said. "They are just like bananas, yellow outside but white inside."

The navy visit at the start of May included two guided-missile destroyers, four guided-missile frigates and two submarines. It was the first such show of military strength since the territory's transfer to China by Britain in 1997. Since the handover the Chinese military has been very low key in Hong Kong. The People's Liberation Army said that the visit was to honour the navy's 55th anniversary. But there was no such visit for the 50th anniversary in 1999. It can be no coincidence that the show of force came as people favouring popular elections in Hong Kong find themselves under growing pressure.

Hong Kong's best-known radio talk show host, Albert Cheng, a longtime supporter of greater democracy and a critic of the local government, flew to Europe last Sunday for a holiday "lasting the rest of year".

He left behind a tape recording, broadcast on Monday, in which he complained of growing threats of violence against himself and his family and what he said was an increasingly "suffocating" political atmosphere.

There will be significant protests in Hong Kong on July 1, marking the 7th anniversary of the handover and the first since last years mass demonstrations.

Anyone who cares for freedom of speech, expression and the right to choose who you are governed by and how should be there. I will find out more details and publish them nearer the time.

Rumsfeld must go; he would not be missed

7 May 2004

One defining US characteristic is that responsibility lies with the boss; Rumsfeld is the Secretary of Defence; he withheld terrible damaging information from his President and from the US Senate. The decent thing to do is to resign; if he des not resign he must be told to go.

The Economist says this far better than I can. I am beginning to suffer Iraq fatique; as I fear is my long suffering reader. But the story is too important to be ignored. And what happens in Iraq could define the Middle East and Arab/Western relations for the next generation.

This is a link to the full story of the abuse of Iraqi prisoners as carried in the New Yorker magazine.

Resign, Rumsfeld

Responsibility for errors and indiscipline needs to be taken at the top

YOU are fighting against international terrorists in a battle that both they and you describe as being one about values. You fight a war against Saddam Hussein at your initiative, not his, and you say that it is a war about law, democracy, freedom and honesty. A big metaphorical banner hangs above both wars proclaiming that your aim is to bring freedom, human rights and democracy to the Arab world. All of that sets admirably high standards for the conduct of your forces as well as of your government itself. Now, however, some of your own armed forces are shown to have fallen well below those standards. What do you do?

One answer is exactly what George Bush has done in response to revelations of torture and humiliating treatment of Iraqi prisoners at the Abu Ghraib jail: to make it clear, in public, that you find such action abhorrent and unacceptable, and that the perpetrators of it will be punished. That has also been the approach of the British government in response to the publication of photographs that may well be fakes but that could nevertheless indicate that genuine abuses have taken place. Yet such statements are not enough, especially in the American case. The scandal is widening, with more allegations coming to light. Moreover, the abuse of these prisoners is not the only damaging error that has been made and it forms part of a culture of extra-legal behaviour that has been set at the highest level. Responsibility for what has occurred needs to be taken—and to be seen to be taken—at the highest level too. It is plain what that means. The secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld, should resign. And if he won't resign, Mr Bush should fire him.

That recommendation will elicit several different responses. One, from critics of the war, will be to point out that the highest level is in fact held by Mr Bush, and that it is the president who should go. The answer is that the electorate has a chance to dismiss Mr Bush in November, while Mr Rumsfeld is an unelected official who, if he is loyal to Mr Bush, ought to want to take the bullet in order to protect his boss. Another response, though, will be to say that the expulsion of Mr Rumsfeld would be disproportionate: wars always bring some abuses, for the soldiers who take part in them have been trained to kill, and the important question is whether the abuses are properly punished when they occur. A third response would be a cynical one: perhaps he should go, it may be said, but he won't. It's an election year. Get real.

The cynics may be proved right; they usually are. But these are exceptional circumstances. The pictures of abuse, especially the one on our cover of the hooded man wired as if for electrocution, stand an awful chance of becoming iconic images that could haunt America for years to come, just as the famous photograph of a naked girl running during a napalm attack did during the Vietnam war. One way of dealing with that risk is by countering it with your own iconic act: ejecting the man at the head of the Pentagon, the man most identified with America's use of military power during the past three years. He is also, however, the man most identified with the wider culture to which these abuses may be connected.

That approach was epitomised by the setting up of a prison camp at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba in 2001. The decision to detain combatants caught in Afghanistan for an indefinite period, with no access to lawyers and no legal redress, was understandable as a short-term response to the threat of terrorism and to ignorance about who might actually be terrorists, but it was nevertheless both wrong and disastrous for America's reputation. It was wrong because it violated the very values and rule of law for which America was supposedly fighting, and soon produced evidence of double standards: some American citizens captured in Afghanistan were allowed to stand trial in American courts in the normal way, but such rights were denied to mere foreigners, every single one of whom was labelled as a dangerous terrorist by Mr Rumsfeld, regardless of any evidence. It has been disastrous for America's reputation because of that hypocrisy but also because it has become a symbol of a “we'll decide” arrogance.

The Geneva conventions that have governed the treatment of prisoners of war for decades were waved aside. And the argument used to justify America's rejection of the new International Criminal Court—that its soldiers would be vulnerable to unreasonable persecution, with necessary military actions defined as crimes—looked ever more hollow. Thanks to Guantánamo, critics could argue that America really does need the check of the ICC, and that its claim that abuses would readily be dealt with in domestic courts was also hollow.

The domestic courts are now gradually taking on the issues raised by Guantánamo, with a ruling awaited from the Supreme Court. And the promise by Mr Bush and Mr Rumsfeld this week that abuses in Iraq will be punished is no doubt sincere. It may be that the shoulder-shrugging pragmatists are right when they say that abuses are an inevitable consequence of war; and it may be that they would have happened regardless of Guantánamo. But the culture that it represented, with all prisoners considered guilty until proven innocent, with dubious interrogation methods widely considered to be condoned, could well have had an influence on the attitudes and behaviour of lower ranks. To stem such an influence right now, and to offer an indubitable demonstration to all Iraqis of the importance America places on eliminating such abuse, Mr Rumsfeld must take responsibility.

Some may worry that a change of defence secretary now would further endanger the effort in Iraq. The opposite is the case, for although Mr Rumsfeld is rightly credited with a successful steering of the conventional war a little over a year ago, he and his team have also been responsible for many of the blunders since then: appalling post-war planning, inadequate troop numbers, excessive deBaathification, and more. For that reason, if he were to go it would be unwise to replace him simply with one of his own team, such as Paul Wolfowitz.

As the recently retired British envoy to Iraq, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, writes in this issue, nothing is easy in an Iraq mired in violence and with fractured and volatile political groupings. But the political course now set, of handing more authority to a new, UN-picked interim government after June 30th in preparation for elections next January, is the right one. All efforts must be made to prevent that course from being disrupted or blocked by violence, by sectarian divisions or by Iraqi mistrust of the whole process.

This week, things seemed to be improving as an Iraqi-led force began to police Fallujah, the rebellious Sunni town to which the Americans had laid siege, and as the main Shia rebel, Muqtada al-Sadr, was becoming more isolated by his fellow Shias. Mr Bush's television broadcasts condemning the abuses at Abu Ghraib and promising punishment probably helped cool the atmosphere, though he ought also to have offered a straightforward apology. Better still if he and Mr Rumsfeld were now to demonstrate one of the true American values: that senior people take responsibility.

Final farewells for Frasier and Friends

6 May 2004

After 11 years and 10 years respectively Frasier and Friends have their TV finales this month. I do not know either show that well. I moved to Hong Kong in 1994 and even if the shows are shown on Star they are usually a season or two out of date.

Friends has its finale tonight, after 236 episodes and 10 years. The trouble is that in ten years the characters seem as shallow as when the debuted. And I have absolutely no interest in Ross and Rachel whose on and off romance was about a stimulating as watching paint dry.

Friends irritated more than entertained. It was an advertisers and TV network manager's dream. The show started with six not well known young actors sitting in a coffee shop chatting . The show targeted at the young and upwardly mobile that was aired on a Thursday to get the disposal spend on the weekend. Friends final episode will be watched by over 100 million Americans at 9.00pm EST tonight. It has been America's top-rated comedy for six years in a row. It is in syndication worldwide and it will live long in re-runs. Advertising for the show tonight will cost US$2 million for a thirty second slot.

Frasier ends next week. Frasier was caustic and clever and well written. A spin off from Cheers the show centered on the life and work of Dr. Frasier Crane as a radio psychologist in Seattle. It was a warm, well paced and very observant show often using farce as the basis of an episode.

It will be interesting to see how both shows age as they have endless seasons of re-runs. MASH is still very watchable; but it may be easier to show in re-run because it has a historical setting in the Korean War. 

The enduring Thai gem scam

4 May 2004

The Thai gem scam is alive and well. You have been warned. You can read all about it on the web or in tour books. But still people fall for it.

My friend is an overseas educated Chinese lady. A smart girl. She had read the guidebooks. I had warned her the night before. But walking the sights unaccompanied, guide book in hand makes her the ideal target.

Yes she believed the well spoken government official who told her that the Grand Palace was closed for some royal function. And yes off she went to another temple and onto a jewellery store. The good news is that she is not into jewellery and did not buy anything.

You have been warned. This scam has been going for some 25 years. It survives due to the greed of the visitor and the complicity of the authorities.

These are professional, organised criminals. They do not work alone. They pass you from one member of the gang to the next; whether professional in appearance or driving a tuk-tuk. Often they also employ people who speak your language and who may have lived in your country. They are looking to form a bond with you and to steal from you.

Here are examples of how the scam works:

http://www.into-asia.com/bangkok/gemscam/experiences.php

And these are the guidelines that you need to consider: go if you are curious; just don't take out you wallet or purse!

Thailand does, in theory, offer bargains on gems and jewelry, it's just that buying them is such a risky proposition that it is not recommended unless you really know what you are doing. If you are planning to purchase, the comments below should help to ensure you are not ripped off when buying:

Barbarians masquerading as liberators

1 May 2004

When Tony Blair stood side by side with the USA and took Britain into the Iraq war he surely did so because he believed that it was the right thing to do; because he believed that Saddam was a genuine threat and because he believed that he could free the Iraqi people from tyranny.

The troops were sent in a liberators.

Now those liberators are seen as no more that an unwanted army of occupation.

And western values of respect and decency and the rule of law have been wiped out by one single image  of an Iraqi prisoner held by US forces in Abu Ghraib prison, forced to stand on a block with electrical wires attached to his body, clothed in a Ku Klux Klan-style hood. There are other pictures of US troops being abused and humiliated.

All the fears of the people of Iraq and of the Muslim world have been confirmed in those images. We have no moral high ground on which to stand. We have lost any justification for staying in Iraq and we have no possible support that can vindicate our actions.

Many of us accepted Tony Blair at his word; those of us who believed that Saddam should go and be replaced by good democratic government for the people by the people. We even thought that having the Brits alongside the Americans might act as a moderating force.

Well we were wrong.

The beating and humiliation of prisoners is not just from the US side. There is now evidence of UK brutality as well.

War is ugly. But in an age of instant media there is no escaping the real facts. The US have been demanding that the Arab media, in particular the al-Jazeera network show a more balanced coverage. It may well be that their coverage was the real story.

The people of Iraq want the troops to leave. We should do exactly that. We have no goodwill left in Iraq. We have overstayed our welcome and we have abused the very people that we sought to liberate.

It is simply pathetic to say that the allied abuses are not as bad as the abuse under Saddam's regime. We are not seeking here to see who is at the lowest possible rung on the ladder. We are held to a far higher standard of behaviour and we failed. America preaches human rights to the world. I only hope that they understand the sad irony and the lasting damage now done.

It is time to leave.

APRIL 2004

Beijing's hard line on Hong Kong

April 29, 2003

I have tried to bite my tongue and write no more on the depressing dictats being handed down from Beijing. It must make the people of Hong Kong feel like recalcitrant children being scolded by the nanny. We know what's best for you sonny, and believe me, democracy is not what you want.

And then there is dear old Tung Chee-hwa; if he was not so unpopular; if he could hire capable people around him instead of pro Beijing sycophants; and frankly, if he was not so useless there would probably be less demand for change.

Beijing cannot fight the march of democracy. All across Europe, Russia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, South Africa, the United States and on and on the voting goes as hundreds of millions march to polls. It will happen in Hong Kong. The Basic Law contains promises that ultimately the Chief Executive and all members of Legco will be returned by universal suffrage elections; i.e. by all adults having the right to vote irrespective of sex, race, occupation, literacy etc. Hong Kong's people want that right sooner, not later.

There have been some entertaining news reports this week: China Daily reported that: "Universal suffrage is no panacea for Hong Kong's problems. And radical changes to the political system will trigger a negative impact on the SAR, a central government official said yesterday". In a separate report this bastion of balanced journalism reported that: "Major political parties and the business community in Hong Kong voiced their support yesterday for the decision by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) that rules out universal suffrage in 2007 and 2008".

Better still was this offering from minor league property developer Ronnie Chan who was reported on Dow Jones as follows: "Leading property tycoon Wednesday defended China's decision to delay indefinitely broader democracy for Hong Kong, blaming the city's recent political turmoil on what he called "aggressive" pro-democracy groups bent on confronting the central government in Beijing". Chan, who has a US passport (granted by one of the world's great democracies Ronnie!!) said that "Hong Kong people don't feel they are truly a part of China, raising the possibility that direct elections could spark a political crisis by returning a leader who is unacceptable to the Beijing authorities". I fear Ronnie will not even see the irony. He is too busy lining his pockets.

Hong Kong suffers from having leaders, in politics and business, who tell Beijing what they think Beijing wants to hear or that continue to protect their own vested power and interests. And the Chinese people still suffer from having a media that tells them only what the government wants them to hear!

As the communists in Beijing prop up their dead ideology by embracing capitalism they are counting on the people preferring stability and growing prosperity over individual rights and freedoms. The two are not exclusive they are complementary.

Beijing is also hoping that by sending such a strong message at this time more and more people in Hong Kong will just assume that it is futile to keep banging their heads against Beijing's great wall. In Hong Kong the pro-democracy campaigners think differently and will argue that this is all the more reason to protest and all the more reason to make their vote count at the limited Legco elections later in the year.

Michael DeGolyer is an associate professor of the government and international studies department at Hong Kong Baptist University. In the Hong Kong Standard he summarised why the democratic processes work and why they are embraced: "The key reason," he says, "rests in the discovery that competition, transparency, and market forces are conducive to growing prosperity. What works in economics and corporate governance works in politics and social governance. Conversely, economic monopoly and corruption grow in the same soil as political monopoly and corruption. Lack of open, accountable government guarantees impoverishment and oppression. It also assures recurrent instability. Democracy has spread so widely because it solves many of the problems raised by economic development and global competition. Corruption in democracies leads rapidly to reform whereas dictatorships and oligopolies suppress reforms until the governing system explodes or collapses".

"By attempting to resist the rising tide of democratisation, the Standing Committee dooms us to drown under a tide of uncompetitiveness, corruption and instability."

Amen to that.

In the meantime, as Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing rather forcefully has reminded us all: "Are you clear on that? Hong Kong is China's Hong Kong."

Britain's sorry isolation

April 26,2004

What a mess; Referendums are not he way to govern a country. The British elected a pro European and pro Euro Labour government by an overwhelming majority. The people don't govern the country and indeed should not be trusted to do so. The nation is far more versed in the Beckham sex life and Eastenders than it will ever be in the pros and cons of European participation.

As the Observer leader points out yesterday no one question cannot capture the complexity of the European constitution. And frankly the Constitution is a big word for what is no more than an integration of the existing EU treaty structure.

It is up to the pro Europeans now to argue the benefits. The euro-sceptic media will produce endless stories of waste and bureacracy. The benefits of European Union membership have to be told. The EU has been portrayed only as a threat.

Britain's European Commissioner, Chris Patten, (one of my favourite people) has said that in the event of a "no" vote Britain would have to pull out of the EU.

The danger of Britain sitting between an EU from which it is excluded and a unilateralist United States where it is welcome only on American terms has not been spelt out. We have never detailed the benefits of building an integrated, democratic Europe. The referendum offers us that chance and we should seize it with enthusiasm.  He is right. After almost 30 years of EU membership Britain has to decide whether it wants to make a success of Europe or not.

And if not in Europe then where is Britain. Britain's allegiance to the unilateralist United States is only accepted in terms that are defined by the Americans, not the British.

This is the chance to sell the benefits of building an integrated, democratic Europe. The alternative is a weak and isolated nation that is living in the past and not the future.

Would you embrace this man?

23 April 2004

The official version:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il hugs former Chinese president Jiang Zemin(L) during a meeting in Beijing, as seen in this video released April 21, 2004. Kim Jong-il told China's leaders he would be patient, flexible and engaged in six-party talks on his nuclear programs, saying what they hoped to hear in an unannounced three-day visit ending on Wednesday. (CCTV/Reuters)

Others:

KIM "Come up and see my warhead"

Losing Our Edge?
April 22, 2004
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

New York Times

I was just out in Silicon Valley, checking in with high-tech entrepreneurs about the state of their business. I wouldn't say they were universally gloomy, but I did detect something I hadn't detected before: a real undertow of concern that America is losing its competitive edge vis-à-vis China, India, Japan and other Asian tigers, and that the Bush team is deaf, dumb and blind to this situation.

Several executives explained to me that they were opening new plants in Asia - not because of cheaper labor. Labor is a small component now in an automated high-tech manufacturing plant. It is because governments in these countries are so eager for employment and the transfer of technology to their young populations that they are offering huge tax holidays for U.S. manufacturers who will set up shop. Because most of these countries also offer some form of national health insurance, U.S. companies shed that huge open liability as well.

Other executives complained bitterly that the Department of Homeland Security is making it so hard for legitimate foreigners to get visas to study or work in America that many have given up the age-old dream of coming here. Instead, they are studying in England and other Western European nations, and even China. This is leading to a twofold disaster.

First, one of America's greatest assets - its ability to skim the cream off the first-round intellectual draft choices from around the world and bring them to our shores to innovate - will be diminished, and that in turn will shrink our talent pool. And second, we could lose a whole generation of foreigners who would normally come here to study, and then would take American ideas and American relationships back home. In a decade we will feel that loss in America's standing around the world.

Still others pointed out that the percentage of Americans graduating with bachelor's degrees in science and engineering is less than half of the comparable percentage in China and Japan, and that U.S. government investments are flagging in basic research in physics, chemistry and
engineering. Anyone who thinks that all the Indian and Chinese techies are doing is answering call-center phones or solving tech problems for Dell customers is sadly mistaken. U.S. firms are moving serious research and development to India and China.

The bottom line: we are actually in the middle of two struggles right now. One is against the Islamist terrorists in Iraq and elsewhere, and the other is a competitiveness-and-innovation struggle against India, China, Japan and their neighbors. And while we are all fixated on the former (I've been no exception), we are completely ignoring the latter. We have got to get our focus back in balance, not to mention our budget. We can't wage war on income taxes and terrorism and a war for innovation at the same time.

Craig Barrett, the C.E.O. of Intel, noted that Intel sponsors an international science competition every year.This year it attracted some 50,000 American high school kids. "I was in China 10 days ago," Mr. Barrett said, "and I asked them how many kids in China participated in the local science fairs that feed into the national fair [and ultimately the Intel finals]. They told me six million kids."

For now, the U.S. still excels at teaching science and engineering at the graduate level, and also in university research. But as the Chinese get more feeder stock coming up through their high schools and colleges, "they will get to the same level as us after a decade," Mr. Barrett said.
"We are not graduating the volume, we do not have a lock on the infrastructure, we do not have a lock on the new ideas, and we are either flat-lining, or in real dollars cutting back, our investments in physical science."

And what is the Bush strategy? Let's go to Mars. Hello? Right now we should have a Manhattan Project to develop a hydrogen-based energy economy - it's within reach and would serve our economy, our environment and our foreign policy by diminishing our dependence on foreign oil. Instead, the
Bush team says let's go to Mars. Where is Congress? Out to lunch - or, worse, obsessed with trying to keep Susie Smith's job at the local pillow factory that is moving to the Caribbean - without thinking about a national competitiveness strategy. And where is Wall Street? So many of the plutocrats there know that the Bush fiscal policy is a long-term disaster. They know it - but they won't say a word because they are too greedy or too gutless.

The only crisis the U.S. thinks it's in today is the war on terrorism, Mr. Barrett said. "It's not."  

Let freedom ring

April 21,2004

On May 1, 2004 ten countries will join the enlarged European Community.

60 years ago Europe was still at war. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were part of the Soviet Union. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic were Soviet satellites.

Now Europe is united, not by war or empire but by economic goals and shared democratic visions.

The right wing press in England ahs been making an issue of European migrants heading to England and sapping the welfare state. But as the mayor of Vilnius, Lithuania's capital said "'Lithuanians like to be patriots. A lot of the American-Lithuanians are coming back. Their future will be here.'

The new Europe will have an over-riding European constitution; this is primarily needed as a set of rules that make the expanded EU workable and that combine and rationalise many different documents that have been put in place over the short life of the EU.

Part of the momentum behind the constitution was the fear that 25 governments, each with a veto, would turn policy and decision-making into an impossible task without an extension of majority voting and a clear setting out of the EU's remit. The Guardian's lead editorial below sets out the logic behind the European constitution. Without it the EU will be a mess. There has