We are one week into another war in the Gulf; this time a war without clear objectives; a war that is contrary to established international law; a war in which civilians are already the primary casualty; a war without any obvious way out. A war of choice.
A note up front: all the main actors here are awful:
– Israel is a genocidal apartheid state
– Trump is an incompetent, corrupt warmonger
– Iran’s regime is a brutal, repressive theocracy
On 28 February 2026 the United States and Israel commenced coordinated joint attacks on various sites in Iran; initially targeting a meeting led by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His compound was destroyed and Khamenei assassinated. Also eliminated were Ali Shamkhani, former head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and several other Iranian officials.
As well as attacking Teheran the operation saw joint strikes on the cities of Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah.
In retaliation, Iran launched dozens of its drones and ballistic missiles throughout the Persian Gulf in addition to targeting Israel as well as US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran also launched strikes on civilian airports and shipping ports in Kuwait, the UAE, and Oman. Britain’s Akrotiri and Dhekelia military base in Cyprus was struck as well.
Iran’s announced (although hard to enforce) closure of the Strait of Hormuz has massively disrupted global oil and gas shipments; some 20% of the words oil supply passes through the straight between Oman and Iran.
The US and Israeli justification has been that Iran posed an imminent threat to both nations. No evidence has been provided to support this.
The US had no plan but it seems likely that Trump expected a short war with a highly visible win, something that echoes Venezuela: Take out the top guy, get a ceasefire, declare victory. That clearly didn’t work.
Instead it is basically Israel’s war. And Israel has already signaled their real aim: Leadership decapitation and regime change. But they will remove any and every Iranian leader that follows.
Israel sees perpetual military supremacy as the only viable path to safety. Since October 7 2023 Israel has been and will remain in a constant state of war from here on, as a very condition of its existence.
If the Iranian regime falls who inherits the aftermath? Who deals with the chaos? Who receives the refugee waves? For the US, this is a war with no clear objectives, no upside, and enormous systemic risks – regardless how much they destroy or how many they kill in Iran.
Late on 3 March President Trump defended his decision to launch the war with Iran, saying in the Oval Office that there would have been a nuclear war without intervention, and that Iran “would have taken out many countries.”
It is worth remembering at this point that on June 22, 2025 the United States Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran as part of the Twelve-Day War, under the code name Operation Midnight Hammer. The Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, the Natanz Nuclear Facility, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center were targeted with fourteen GBU-57A/B MOP “bunker buster” bombs carried by B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and Tomahawk missiles fired from a submarine.
The attack was the United States’ only offensive action in the Twelve-Day War, which began on June 13 with surprise Israeli strikes, and ended with the ceasefire on June 24, 2025. It was the first U.S. attack on an Iranian target since the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, and on Iran’s territory since a 1988 naval offensive. President Trump said the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities.
So 9 months later how would Iran have the capability to launch a nuclear strike on anyone.
Again words and allegations but no evidence. Trump’s biggest problem is that outside of his MAGA devotees no one actually believes a word that he says.
Instead this is a war that started out of bald-faced opportunism. Khamenei and his leaders meeting together above ground was simply too good an opportunity to miss. Mossad, with agents throughout Iran, knew the exact time and place of the meeting.
The USA appears to have green-lighted the Israeli attack as well as providing air support from the large carrier-led naval fleet that the US has mustered in the Gulf.
The most striking to date of the civilian casualties was on 28 February 2026 when the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab, Hormozgan province in southern Iran was destroyed during the school day, reportedly by a missile. According to Iranian state media, 180 people were killed, the majority of whom were schoolchildren.
As of 6 March a Reuters exclusive cited two US officials who have stated that their military investigators believe it’s likely US forces carried out the Feb 28 strike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school in Minab, southern Iran. Iran reports 165 killed (mostly children 7-12); a toll that is unverified independently. The Secretary of Defence (War) says its investigation is ongoing with no final conclusion and added that their is no deliberate civilian targeting. Video footage of the destroyed school was verified by multiple sources. The attack was condemned by the Iranian government and UNESCO.
Alarming the war has dragged in the Gulf nations and extended into the Mediterranean. Iran’s response has largely been based on its stockpile of one-way drones and missiles. Its airforce appears decimated.
Some of the Iranian drones hit very specific targets such as the US naval base in Bahrain. others appear more random. Most of the Gulf nations have very effective ground to air missile defenses that have largely destroyed drones before they reach their targets. However, even drone debris can do damage on the ground and pictures from Dubai of damaged hotels have been alarming. The US consulate in Dubai was hit by a drone.
Israel has now widened the war with air attacks on, and by sending troops into, Lebanon in an assault on Iranian-funded Hezbollah.
On Wednesday; day 4 of the war, the US defence secretary (war secretary) Pete Hegseth confirmed that a US submarine sank an Iranian frigate, the “IRIS Dena”, off the coast of Sri Lanka, marking the first US attack on Iranian forces outside of the Middle East.
The Iranian ship was outside Sri Lanka’s territorial waters but still within its economic zone, 44 nautical miles (81km) off the southern coastal city of Galle. It was no imminent threat.
Aruna Jayasekara, Sri Lanka’s deputy minister of defence, confirmed that 83 bodies had been recovered from the site of the strike. According to officials, 32 of the crew were rescued alive and taken to a hospital in Galle.
The “Iris Dena” was the newest frigate in the Iranian naval fleet and while it could be equipped with surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles, cannon, machine guns and torpedo launchers there is debate about whether the ship carried any live ammunition as it was on a flag waving visit to the international fleet review, which was hosted by the Indian navy last week.
The submarine that took the shot has not been named. The commander has not been named. How far up the US Navy’s chain of command was the decision made?
In a press briefing at the Pentagon, Hegseth declared that “America is winning” and suggested that in under a week the US and Israel “will have complete control of Iranian skies”. Hegseth said the US is able to continue the military action against Iran “for as long as we need to”, saying Iran “can no longer shoot the volume of missiles they once did”. That is likely true – Iran may have a sizeable missile stockpile but the missiles need stable launchers and those have been targeted by US and Israeli aircraft.
The US and Israel’s joint war in Iran has already upended travel across the Middle East, stranding tens of thousands of people. And the future is anything but certain.
The airlines and local authorities have worked to find alternative airways that journey via Oman and the KSA and with far fewer missiles and drones being launched at the UAE Emirates hopes to operate over 60% of its schedule starting from 7 March.
Experts stress that flights scheduled in the coming days and weeks could continue to see disruptions, causing ripple effects globally. Many carriers have been forced to either cancel flights or shift to longer routes. That’s straining operating costs and ticket prices, both of which could become more expensive if airlines have to pay more for fuel the longer the war drags on.
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz threatened on X on Wednesday to assassinate any Iranian leader picked to succeed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli strikes on Tehran.
Any leader selected by the Iranian terror regime to continue leading the plan for Israel’s destruction, threatening the United States, the free world and countries in the region, and suppressing the Iranian people, will be a certain target for assassination, no matter his name or where he hides.”
It kind of does not matter – the Ayotollah is largely a figure head – real power lies with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC. They wont be surrendering anytime soon.
Now 6 days into the war Trump has changed the US objective in one of his posts to his Truth Social network.
At 8:50 this morning Trump ended the possibility of a negotiated settlement with two words: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.”
Gone are a nuclear deal; a ceasefire; a return to the negotiating table. He requires the complete, unconditional submission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to American terms, followed by the selection of leadership that he considers “GREAT AND ACCEPTABLE” before reconstruction can begin.
Only one conclusion: this war is not ending in days.
Total surrender was the demand of Japan in 1945. It is not a bargaining position. It is the extinguishment of the adversary’s capacity and will to resist, followed by the victor’s selecting the replacement government. And potentially a period of occupation by the victors.
Meanwhile a heightened risk of terrorist activity is being reported – and anywhere that US assets exist is now potentially at threat.
The Board or peace barely lasted a month while Trump became bored of peace.
The White House X account is a public record of government; it appears to be in the hands of gloating sociopaths. War is not a game. It is brutal, bloody, life-shattering and cruel.
History will judge this White House. And history will not be kind.
Where is Europe in this fight ? There are voices that parrot Trump and Hegseth – there are others that This is not their war and who believe that the degradation of international law is a more serious and lasting a threat to Europe than the Iranian regime ever was. Finallly getting dragged into the war can make them a target of Iranian retaliation, including terrorism.
For Putin this is more good news. Russia is a major exporter of energy. The rise in energy prices alone can fully fund his war in Ukraine. A 4 years long war in Ukraine has been largely forgotten. The war against Iran is almost a green light for Putin to do as he wishes without US interference..
Also forgotten – the Epstein files.
The world has changed in the last week – dramatically and not in a good way. And there will be more changes still to come.